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TvZ Winrates with Mass Widow Mine - Page 20

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VieuxSinge
Profile Joined February 2011
France231 Posts
April 22 2013 12:26 GMT
#381
On April 22 2013 21:05 kamicom wrote:
I like how the vast majority of people defending widow mines and equivocating the meaning of "balance" just happen to be Terran... I've been watching the past two seasons of GSL. And all the successful Terrans have a pretty obvious trend: Medivac afterburners, hellbats, widow mines.

The widow mine's just a cheap, fast-producing, expendable, cloaked, mini-seige tank that attacks air. It's too cost-effective and useful in too many scenarios (people argue it's a defensive unit but that's bs. Flash and other T's this season in GSL showed that WM really are just mini-siege tanks). The worst part is that it doesn't reward T's for doing anything positive. You just start burrowing them all over, then kite with marines for a cost-effective battle.


Yep, because terran needs such a unit.

Ever wondered why every terran was almost always going mech in the last months of WoL (even top Koreans players)? because playing bio was just too hard because of banelings/infest and the result was a win/rate ratio of 42% for TvZ for 6 months.

Now with mines, things are even, real micro are required from terran (split, kite, multitask) and from zerg (split zerglings, flank correctly, respond to multi-drops).

Thanks to widow-mine, we now can clearly distinguish real zergs (life, symbol, soO for exemple) from all the patchzergs that flourished during the last 6 months of WoL.

Of course, we see a lot of whinning from zergs in every league, and especially masters, since they are not used to having to micro thus lose more than they did before HotS
Another clue to my existence.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
April 22 2013 12:29 GMT
#382
I wish I had also already seen two HOTS seasons of GSL. Alas, the first one is half-way done.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Decendos
Profile Joined August 2011
Germany1338 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-22 12:39:25
April 22 2013 12:37 GMT
#383
On April 22 2013 21:26 VieuxSinge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 22 2013 21:05 kamicom wrote:
I like how the vast majority of people defending widow mines and equivocating the meaning of "balance" just happen to be Terran... I've been watching the past two seasons of GSL. And all the successful Terrans have a pretty obvious trend: Medivac afterburners, hellbats, widow mines.

The widow mine's just a cheap, fast-producing, expendable, cloaked, mini-seige tank that attacks air. It's too cost-effective and useful in too many scenarios (people argue it's a defensive unit but that's bs. Flash and other T's this season in GSL showed that WM really are just mini-siege tanks). The worst part is that it doesn't reward T's for doing anything positive. You just start burrowing them all over, then kite with marines for a cost-effective battle.


Yep, because terran needs such a unit.

Ever wondered why every terran was almost always going mech in the last months of WoL (even top Koreans players)? because playing bio was just too hard because of banelings/infest and the result was a win/rate ratio of 42% for TvZ for 6 months.

Now with mines, things are even, real micro are required from terran (split, kite, multitask) and from zerg (split zerglings, flank correctly, respond to multi-drops).

Thanks to widow-mine, we now can clearly distinguish real zergs (life, symbol, soO for exemple) from all the patchzergs that flourished during the last 6 months of WoL.

Of course, we see a lot of whinning from zergs in every league, and especially masters, since they are not used to having to micro thus lose more than they did before HotS


so now its 60% winrate for T and you call things even? wow ^^

mines are just way too easy to use, produce, cost-effective, fast and hit both air and ground with both single target and splash damage. basically you are stupid if you dont build mines imo since there is pretty much not a single downside vs Z.

same thing goes for afterburners. not a single downside to using it. just a huge straight up buff which in combination with the also insanely costeffective hellbat makes for terrible and very easy to play strats.

T went from the hardest to play to the easiest to play and hardest to play against race in HOTS. slight nerfs or better: downsides for afterburners, mines and hellbats are needed. and before all T start whining about nerfs: i said SLIGHT nerfs!

or even better: dont nerf T but buff P/Z! more OP things, more fun ^^
VieuxSinge
Profile Joined February 2011
France231 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-22 12:53:30
April 22 2013 12:46 GMT
#384
First, I call things even in terms of micro required by both races. Not saying the match-up is balanced, and I would say I wish blizzard nerfed the hellbat which is a stupid 1a unit that can be used as a mineral dump in case of bad macro

Second, the ratio is 54.1% right now according to http://aligulac.com/reports/ and we are expecting it to rise to 56_57% for april. But this is month 1. TvZ has been zerg favoured for 6 months straight up in WoL before every one recognised a nerf to infestors was needed. Same things for HotS, blizzard must wait at least 1 more month (or at least the end of WCS) before taking actions. If terran must be nerfed, so be it. But right now, people are just complaigning over something relatively new.

Third, talented zergs such as life, symbol and soO have shown fighting widow mine and afterburners is not something impossible to achieve, they do great right now against terran and they are leading the way for zergs. I wouldn't be surprised zergs catch-up terran in the following months without any nerfs to terran.

Finally, are you saying bio-mine is the easiest thing to play? i recommend you try it yourself before making such ridiculous statement
Another clue to my existence.
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
April 22 2013 12:54 GMT
#385
On April 22 2013 21:05 kamicom wrote:
I like how the vast majority of people defending widow mines and equivocating the meaning of "balance" just happen to be Terran... I've been watching the past two seasons of GSL. And all the successful Terrans have a pretty obvious trend: Medivac afterburners, hellbats, widow mines.

The widow mine's just a cheap, fast-producing, expendable, cloaked, mini-seige tank that attacks air. It's too cost-effective and useful in too many scenarios (people argue it's a defensive unit but that's bs. Flash and other T's this season in GSL showed that WM really are just mini-siege tanks). The worst part is that it doesn't reward T's for doing anything positive. You just start burrowing them all over, then kite with marines for a cost-effective battle.

I like how the vast majority of people moaning about Widow Mines just happen to be Zerg...

Keep fooling yourself thinking Mines takes zero skill to work correctly when there are countless examples of Mines underperforming or even backfiring.

On April 22 2013 21:26 VieuxSinge wrote:
Ever wondered why every terran was almost always going mech in the last months of WoL (even top Koreans players)?

? Mech was never the most used composition among top Korean Terrans. Even though players like Mvp frequently (or nearly exclusively at some times) used mech, Marines/Tanks remained standard.

On April 22 2013 21:37 Decendos wrote:
so now its 60% winrate for T and you call things even? wow ^^

mines are just way too easy to use, produce, cost-effective, fast and hit both air and ground with both single target and splash damage. basically you are stupid if you dont build mines imo since there is pretty much not a single downside vs Z.

same thing goes for afterburners. not a single downside to using it. just a huge straight up buff which in combination with the also insanely costeffective hellbat makes for terrible and very easy to play strats.

T went from the hardest to play to the easiest to play and hardest to play against race in HOTS. slight nerfs or better: downsides for afterburners, mines and hellbats are needed. and before all T start whining about nerfs: i said SLIGHT nerfs!

or even better: dont nerf T but buff P/Z! more OP things, more fun ^^

It's quite hilarious how Medivacs and Mines are essentially freewin buttons when lazy/biased Zergs talk about them, then you watch Code S and you see TvZ is 18-15 in maps there. Where is the Mine/Medivac apocalypse?
Decendos
Profile Joined August 2011
Germany1338 Posts
April 22 2013 13:06 GMT
#386
On April 22 2013 21:46 VieuxSinge wrote:
First, I call things even in terms of micro required by both races. Not saying the match-up is balanced, and I would say I wish blizzard nerfed the hellbat which is a stupid 1a unit that can be used as a mineral dump in case of bad macro

Second, the ratio is 54.1% right now according to http://aligulac.com/reports/ and we are expecting it to rise to 56_57% for april. But this is month 1. TvZ has been zerg favoured for 6 months straight up in WoL before every one recognised a nerf to infestors was needed. Same things for HotS, blizzard must wait at least 1 more month (or at least the end of WCS) before taking actions. If terran must be nerfed, so be it. But right now, people are just complaigning over something relatively new.

Third, talented zergs such as life, symbol and soO have shown fighting widow mine and afterburners is not something impossible to achieve, they do great right now against terran and they are leading the way for zergs. I wouldn't be surprised zergs catch-up terran in the following months without any nerfs to terran.

Finally, are you saying bio-mine is the easiest thing to play? i recommend you try it yourself before making such ridiculous statement


i played it (only dia level with T). but basically its more about watching pros play and thinking. MMM in WoL was WAY harder for T. right now you can basically burrow mines and everytime Z attacks into you you just stim everything and run back. now thats 1000x easier than having to split everything. obv. top pro T still will split so MMMM gets even more effective with splitting.

same goes for drops. there is absolutely no downside for afterburners and obv it is much easier dropping now. abusing cliffs, speeding away even from mutas, medivacs survive much longer etc.

reapers are much more viable now. after opening reaper you can 100% scout roach warren if you sac the reaper at the right time.

mines are awesome vs all ins

free siege mode is awesome vs all ins.

hellbat drops are insanely cost efficient.

so yeah then i say T in WoL is >>>> harder to play than T in HOTS i am 100% right about that. not even talking about balance here but being way safer in early and midgame (talking TvZ only atm) while being able to pressure much better and having a better standing army while infestor being nerfed hard makes T way easier to play (easier /= easy!).
Snoodles
Profile Joined March 2012
401 Posts
April 22 2013 13:10 GMT
#387
On April 22 2013 22:06 Decendos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 22 2013 21:46 VieuxSinge wrote:
First, I call things even in terms of micro required by both races. Not saying the match-up is balanced, and I would say I wish blizzard nerfed the hellbat which is a stupid 1a unit that can be used as a mineral dump in case of bad macro

Second, the ratio is 54.1% right now according to http://aligulac.com/reports/ and we are expecting it to rise to 56_57% for april. But this is month 1. TvZ has been zerg favoured for 6 months straight up in WoL before every one recognised a nerf to infestors was needed. Same things for HotS, blizzard must wait at least 1 more month (or at least the end of WCS) before taking actions. If terran must be nerfed, so be it. But right now, people are just complaigning over something relatively new.

Third, talented zergs such as life, symbol and soO have shown fighting widow mine and afterburners is not something impossible to achieve, they do great right now against terran and they are leading the way for zergs. I wouldn't be surprised zergs catch-up terran in the following months without any nerfs to terran.

Finally, are you saying bio-mine is the easiest thing to play? i recommend you try it yourself before making such ridiculous statement


i played it (only dia level with T). but basically its more about watching pros play and thinking. MMM in WoL was WAY harder for T. right now you can basically burrow mines and everytime Z attacks into you you just stim everything and run back. now thats 1000x easier than having to split everything. obv. top pro T still will split so MMMM gets even more effective with splitting.

same goes for drops. there is absolutely no downside for afterburners and obv it is much easier dropping now. abusing cliffs, speeding away even from mutas, medivacs survive much longer etc.

reapers are much more viable now. after opening reaper you can 100% scout roach warren if you sac the reaper at the right time.

mines are awesome vs all ins

free siege mode is awesome vs all ins.

hellbat drops are insanely cost efficient.

so yeah then i say T in WoL is >>>> harder to play than T in HOTS i am 100% right about that. not even talking about balance here but being way safer in early and midgame (talking TvZ only atm) while being able to pressure much better and having a better standing army while infestor being nerfed hard makes T way easier to play (easier /= easy!).


Likewise Zerg was way too easy to defend until tier 3 in WoL. That's the point.
Wen_Jie
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia38 Posts
April 22 2013 13:20 GMT
#388
On April 22 2013 21:37 Decendos wrote:

so now its 60% winrate for T and you call things even? wow ^^



actually it's 52.6%, which isn't perfect, but isn't horrible either. a lot of Zergs are winning in the early/midgame now instead.
TheSubtleArt
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada2527 Posts
April 22 2013 13:29 GMT
#389
On April 22 2013 21:26 VieuxSinge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 22 2013 21:05 kamicom wrote:
I like how the vast majority of people defending widow mines and equivocating the meaning of "balance" just happen to be Terran... I've been watching the past two seasons of GSL. And all the successful Terrans have a pretty obvious trend: Medivac afterburners, hellbats, widow mines.

The widow mine's just a cheap, fast-producing, expendable, cloaked, mini-seige tank that attacks air. It's too cost-effective and useful in too many scenarios (people argue it's a defensive unit but that's bs. Flash and other T's this season in GSL showed that WM really are just mini-siege tanks). The worst part is that it doesn't reward T's for doing anything positive. You just start burrowing them all over, then kite with marines for a cost-effective battle.


Yep, because terran needs such a unit.

Ever wondered why every terran was almost always going mech in the last months of WoL (even top Koreans players)? because playing bio was just too hard because of banelings/infest and the result was a win/rate ratio of 42% for TvZ for 6 months.

Now with mines, things are even, real micro are required from terran (split, kite, multitask) and from zerg (split zerglings, flank correctly, respond to multi-drops).

Thanks to widow-mine, we now can clearly distinguish real zergs (life, symbol, soO for exemple) from all the patchzergs that flourished during the last 6 months of WoL.

Of course, we see a lot of whinning from zergs in every league, and especially masters, since they are not used to having to micro thus lose more than they did before HotS

Lol. TvZ was fine until the ghost nerf made infestors impossible to deal with, didn't really have anything to do with a micro discrepancy between bio and muta / ling / bling. Nice generalizing tho
Dodge arrows
unkkz
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
Norway2196 Posts
April 22 2013 13:42 GMT
#390
As a P mines aren´t that bad although i think it's quite ridicilous that such an early unit requires detection since it can be placed in mineral lines which spider mines never could(workers were "floating" units in BW so mines didnt initiate on them) i think afterburners however is complete bullshit. If i scout a drop, bait them halfway into my base, they should not be able to get out for free, something which currently happens due to AB. Hell they might even fly around and go for my natural and drop there, something they can do since the damn things is much faster then all of my units. AB is a crutch for bad drop play it needs a downside or should simply be removed.
DrahtMaul
Profile Joined July 2011
Germany74 Posts
April 22 2013 14:02 GMT
#391
I noticed that when I go to sleep early, 59% of the time the next day happens to be sunny. However, if I go to bed really late, the weather often times (51%) is kinda rainy or cold.
Do you think I should go to sleep early every day, because weather will be better than?

But hey, srsly:
I'm a zerg, and I don't really feel like Widowmines are a huge problem. Mine drops are no problems for me, since I'm able to react pretty fast and have spores in my bases anyway, and I generally try to get the mines to shoot my opponents marines with zerglings.
Baum
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Germany1010 Posts
April 22 2013 14:21 GMT
#392
On April 16 2013 03:10 Eventine wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 16 2013 02:53 Shousan wrote:
On April 15 2013 17:24 Umpteen wrote:
On April 12 2013 07:17 SC2Frozen wrote:
OK, this thread has had enough of the "this is not significant" BS. Let us pull back the foreskin of ignorance and apply the steel wool of enlightenment.
<snip>
Note, this does not say that the widow mine production caused the win, but it pretty definitely shows that in games where the WMs were produced in these volumes, the winrate was very likely higher than 55%.


Most of the posters saying this data isn't significant were speaking to the lack of control for confounding factors.

For instance, the same data shows Terran masters players are winning almost 58% of games that go beyond 15 minutes, and that there is no discernible correlation between widow mines as a proportion of the army at 15 minutes and win-rates.

So far as I can tell from the OP, the stats are not for ">10 wm vs <10wm @10 mins", they are for ">10 wm vs <10wm" period. So how much of the correlation can be attributed to Terrans winning more in longer games, and rather unsurprisingly making more units in longer games?



This is what most people are missing, out of those games with 10 or more Widow Mines which ones are late game, mid game, etc. This stats don't actually tell you anything about widow mines' effectiveness, using the same sample I could pull out something like "players that build 10+ medivacs have higher winning percentage, therefore, you can clearly see that medivacs are pretty powerful", the fact that two variables seem to move "in the same direction" doesn't mean there's a correlation between the two. Time should be a much bigger factor than mines.


It's not terribly difficult to figure out, you run a probit model of # of widow mines on wins while controlling for things such as length of game, map, etc. The problem is that everything in the game is path dependent. The ability to make widow mines is part of what has happened in the game previously.

I think what you can say with the data available here is that there does appear to be a correlation between widow mines and terran win percentages.


Yes, you can say that but that in return doesn't actually say anything.
I want to be with those who share secret things or else alone.
bertolo
Profile Joined June 2010
United States133 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-22 14:55:03
April 22 2013 14:48 GMT
#393
On April 22 2013 21:05 kamicom wrote:
I like how the vast majority of people defending widow mines and equivocating the meaning of "balance" just happen to be Terran... I've been watching the past two seasons of GSL. And all the successful Terrans have a pretty obvious trend: Medivac afterburners, hellbats, widow mines.

The widow mine's just a cheap, fast-producing, expendable, cloaked, mini-seige tank that attacks air. It's too cost-effective and useful in too many scenarios (people argue it's a defensive unit but that's bs. Flash and other T's this season in GSL showed that WM really are just mini-siege tanks). The worst part is that it doesn't reward T's for doing anything positive. You just start burrowing them all over, then kite with marines for a cost-effective battle.


You haven't been watching enough or paying any attention then. All the bold is completely wrong too.


T went from the hardest to play to the easiest to play and hardest to play against race in HOTS. slight nerfs or better: downsides for afterburners, mines and hellbats are needed. and before all T start whining about nerfs: i said SLIGHT nerfs


Go play T before you make such an ignorant statement.

To reiterate: I don't see how any of the stats gathered in this thread mean anything when the balance isn't focused around the highest levels of play where strategies are still being developed and even the best players are still learning how to adapt and deal with new and odd compositions.

Why hasn't this thread been closed/locked yet? It means nothing and its clearly whining.
hotsuma
Profile Joined May 2011
Brazil56 Posts
April 22 2013 15:33 GMT
#394
The problem is that the zerg player cannot A move his arm and hug the terran army,
Everyone say that Terran is easy, but all I see is a lot of zerg players on ladder playing greed as hell and complaining about balance.
My totality eclipses the chasm!
Crownlol
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States3726 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-22 15:40:00
April 22 2013 15:39 GMT
#395
I dunno. I'm watching ForGG using mass mines in every game of the Acer Teamstory cup vs. Acer, and honestly I'm gettin' real tired of their shit. Mobile stealth siege tanks that hit air? K. Can just leave 'em around sorta wherever and accidentally get tons of kills? K.

The microless kills are really what do it, though.
shaGuar :: elemeNt :: XeqtR :: naikon :: method
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
April 22 2013 15:41 GMT
#396
On April 23 2013 00:39 Crownlol wrote:
I dunno. I'm watching ForGG using mass mines in every game of the Acer Teamstory cup vs. Acer, and honestly I'm gettin' real tired of their shit. Mobile stealth siege tanks that hit air? K. Can just leave 'em around sorta wherever and accidentally get tons of kills? K.

The microless kills are really what do it, though.

Listing the strengths of a unit while conveniently omitting its weaknesses is a sure way to make everything look imbalanced.
DifuntO
Profile Joined November 2011
Greece2376 Posts
April 22 2013 15:53 GMT
#397
Zerg has to actually micro now and look at all the reactions.It's pretty funny.

What i see from WCS Korea is that the best player almost always wins in TvZ.
All I do is Stim.
Holo82
Profile Joined April 2013
Austria107 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-22 16:21:05
April 22 2013 16:17 GMT
#398
what i really find so entertaining about widowmine vs zerg is following Pattern:
Terran moves out on creep.
Zerg has vision. sees the mines burrowing. Send in some lings.
As soon the terrans widowmine go off on a few lings and are ON COOLDOWN, the zerg retreats with his whole army vs a terran on creep with widowmines on 40 seconds cd?
It is so hillarious to watch the stupid zerg players, its like a cow running into electric fence, getting shocked, retreating, and running in again.

Or another thing, yesterday, wcs qualifier, zvt, dont know who, but some top notch korean zerg, Roach / ling push on day break, between natural and established third. Natural is save with bunkers, several mines. Zerg could easily take out 3rd. but what does he do? runs into the minefield covered by 2 bunkers and mmm. Terran looses like nearly everything, Zerg crushes the two bunkers and waits ON THE MINEFIELD for reinforcement, until the mines get ready again.Why doesnt he take out the 3rd? why doesnt he get an oversser? why is he camping the Minefield? Bam all roach explode. I dont know how stupid high lvl zergs really are, but what they show is so brutally bad micro and decisionmaking, that they would be stuck in silver forever if played terran in wol. I wonder if Zerg really has been so easy that u could get away with this level of play in wol.
sage_francis
Profile Joined December 2006
France1823 Posts
April 22 2013 16:26 GMT
#399
On April 22 2013 21:46 VieuxSinge wrote:
First, I call things even in terms of micro required by both races. Not saying the match-up is balanced, and I would say I wish blizzard nerfed the hellbat which is a stupid 1a unit that can be used as a mineral dump in case of bad macro

Second, the ratio is 54.1% right now according to http://aligulac.com/reports/ and we are expecting it to rise to 56_57% for april. But this is month 1. TvZ has been zerg favoured for 6 months straight up in WoL before every one recognised a nerf to infestors was needed. Same things for HotS, blizzard must wait at least 1 more month (or at least the end of WCS) before taking actions. If terran must be nerfed, so be it. But right now, people are just complaigning over something relatively new.

Third, talented zergs such as life, symbol and soO have shown fighting widow mine and afterburners is not something impossible to achieve, they do great right now against terran and they are leading the way for zergs. I wouldn't be surprised zergs catch-up terran in the following months without any nerfs to terran.

Finally, are you saying bio-mine is the easiest thing to play? i recommend you try it yourself before making such ridiculous statement


well said sir
MrTortoise
Profile Joined January 2011
1388 Posts
April 22 2013 16:30 GMT
#400
On April 22 2013 22:42 unkkz wrote:
As a P mines aren´t that bad although i think it's quite ridicilous that such an early unit requires detection since it can be placed in mineral lines which spider mines never could(workers were "floating" units in BW so mines didnt initiate on them) i think afterburners however is complete bullshit. If i scout a drop, bait them halfway into my base, they should not be able to get out for free, something which currently happens due to AB. Hell they might even fly around and go for my natural and drop there, something they can do since the damn things is much faster then all of my units. AB is a crutch for bad drop play it needs a downside or should simply be removed.



or you could just race switch ;p
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