On December 11 2012 11:59 rrwrwx wrote: Seems weird that Leenock now has a higher rating than Mvp ever did.
Mvp plays mostly GSL
In a 1 year period, Leenock got 2 MLG wins, 1 IPL win, and 1 GSL and 1 MLG second place In a 1 year period, Mvp got 3 GSL wins, a GSL second place, and won an MLG, Blizzcon, and WCG.
Even if Mvp plays mostly GSL, he still achieved more results than Leenock in an equivalent amount of time.
these ratings are mostly over small week periods, and leenock's had an intense leenockvember for sure.
On December 11 2012 03:17 00Visor wrote: Does the rating for one period regard other periods at all? Regarding the "Stephano issue". Would you really take Stephanos actual rating (#130) for your new predictions or something different?
1. Yes, the method for computing the rating in one period depends on the rating from the preceding period. There is no forward dependence.
2. I agree that it looks funny that Stephano is so low, but yes, I would use it. I don't think there's a place for making subjective tweaks to individual players.
You're using the database from sc2charts/mystarcraft, correct?
Yeah, it's the most complete and up-to-date I could find. Still not perfect though, I had to clean it up a bit and remove some duplicate entries. I'm also a bit concerned because, for example, they still don't have the Proleague games in there.
That's really a shame there isn't a better source for you, Proleague is essential. Good luck finding additional sources, maybe you can find a way to work with tlpd?
I'd love to see you get graphs like financial websites have for stocks, all slick with the zooms and compares and whatnot. I could procrastinate like crazy on a site with that.
Just a thought; since the ratings fluctuate quite much, is it possible to have an average rating for each player? For example the average rating for the past 3 or 6 months?
the advantage is that you put all the visualization on the client side, meaning you don't have the render PNG charts or send large HTML/XML data tables over the wire (JSON is much faster, especially when its compressed)
On December 11 2012 11:49 playa wrote: I don't get Ranged being the most specialized against T, when, according to TLPD, P vs T is his worst mu.
TLPD is really behind I think with their data. The other possibility is that he's on a real hot streak in vT, or that he's doing ok invT and terrible in the other matchups perhaps?
At first glance I thought this was awesome, but then I noticed the ridiculously low timeframe of just a few weeks. That timeframe doesnt really mean anything and ups and downs only show the daily form of the player or even some experimenting with new builds.
If you would use longer timeframes it would improve the actual precision of the data, since this much fluctuation is not really useful for predicting a trend.
No, I don't. Korean tournaments and players receive no special treatment. The GSL is difficult because good players play there; the players aren't good because they play in the GSL.
I can't agree with this and is a flaw in the system. I'm not sure how to fix it because it would be complicated, but not taking opponent's skill into consideration is a flaw. Giving the same weight for a win if someone beats say an MVP and if they beat a non or semi pro in an MLG open bracket is wrong.
Your reasoning of " The GSL is difficult because good players play there; the players aren't good because they play in the GSL" is also flawed because yes the players in GSL are good because they play in GSL because it's damn hard to qualify for it and to remain in it and not drop to code b.
No, I don't. Korean tournaments and players receive no special treatment. The GSL is difficult because good players play there; the players aren't good because they play in the GSL.
I can't agree with this and is a flaw in the system. I'm not sure how to fix it because it would be complicated, but not taking opponent's skill into consideration is a flaw. Giving the same weight for a win if someone beats say an MVP and if they beat a non or semi pro in an MLG open bracket is wrong.
Your reasoning of " The GSL is difficult because good players play there; the players aren't good because they play in the GSL" is also flawed because yes the players in GSL are good because they play in GSL because it's damn hard to qualify for it and to remain in it and not drop to code b.
nono i think you've got it wrong; what he means is that if you beat MVP in GSL finals, it's the same as beating MVP in some random online tournament.
On December 11 2012 11:53 lazyitachi wrote: Is there a definition of the Best? Most specialised somewhere?
Best: highest rating. Most specialised: largest number of standard deviations between general rating and matchup rating.
The tendency is that new players with few games have wild matchup ratings, while the more established players have pretty even ones. That's why they come off as "most specialised." I tried to fix this with the standard deviation weighing, but it didn't work satisfactorily.
On December 11 2012 12:26 Shellshock1122 wrote: We missed your stats in Code A yesterday Will they be making a return tonight?
Yeah, those have fallen wayside a bit. I'm sure I'll be there for the evening session.
On December 11 2012 13:36 Blisse wrote: Why Python 2.5.2, can I ask?
Hahaha... I had this virtual server and domain laying around, and I was halfway through the development before I realised it's on Debian Lenny, and so I'm condemned to use a bit outdated software. Thankfully all the libraries I needed were still available. Others have suggested me to use a different host, so I don't think I will bother trying to update this one.
No, I don't. Korean tournaments and players receive no special treatment. The GSL is difficult because good players play there; the players aren't good because they play in the GSL.
I can't agree with this and is a flaw in the system. I'm not sure how to fix it because it would be complicated, but not taking opponent's skill into consideration is a flaw. Giving the same weight for a win if someone beats say an MVP and if they beat a non or semi pro in an MLG open bracket is wrong.
Your reasoning of " The GSL is difficult because good players play there; the players aren't good because they play in the GSL" is also flawed because yes the players in GSL are good because they play in GSL because it's damn hard to qualify for it and to remain in it and not drop to code b.
Like opterown said, I do take the opponent's skill into consideration. I just give the same consideration to wins over Mvp in the GSL as I do to wins over Mvp at your grandma's dinner party.
I find your rating system underwhelming, if not inconsistant with its purpose:
I'll assume that you created this site and rating in order to have a base for your prediction tool (which is great by the way). The whole sense of predicting player performance is based on the fact that you think that skill is robust, namely that your win from yesterday means (somehow) that you're more likely to win tomorrow. On the other hand, if you chose a volatile rating system (like you did), it means, on the contrary that the skill is volatile. If you think that the game is too volatile, you just cannot make prediction.
I feel like it's better to have a maybe less accurate but more robust rating, so that the predictions would not be overly different from one period to the next because of a bad week.
EDIT : maybe I was too negative. I really like what you did and I will probably check both your proba to win and your site for rating (since TLPD is not at all up to date). I just don't think you chose a good rating system.
I saw a featured streamer I'm not very familiar with... So I decided to check how the player ranked here. It was very cool to see their vs P/T/Z rank etc, however it would be really cool to see an additional
Rating vT XXXX (#yyy, #YY [race])
where you would get an additional rating for how high a player ranks within their own race. Maybe it would be simpler/cleaner to just allow a sort by each rating.
EPT
Will they be making a return tonight?
