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[September] TLPD Race Winrate Graphs - Page 2

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Elean
Profile Joined October 2010
689 Posts
October 07 2011 13:55 GMT
#21
On October 07 2011 22:47 Binabik wrote:
Don't forget that even in chess there is a 56%-44% imbalance in favor of white (moves first).
Of course that doesn't mean that we should try to keep the game imbalanced, but it means that you shouldn't worry about these percentages to much, just try to win every game!

In chess you don't always play with the same race.
Guamshin
Profile Joined January 2011
Netherlands295 Posts
October 07 2011 13:55 GMT
#22
Why so little games in september?
Weeeee
Rannasha
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Netherlands2398 Posts
October 07 2011 13:56 GMT
#23
I don't like the polynomial that was fitted to the data. It's stated in the picture that it's a 3rd order polynomial (so: a x^3 + b x^2 + c x + d), which is a fairly arbitrary choice. I don't think you can just fit a polynomial function to data like this, since the data do not just come from continuous natural evolution, but also discrete jumps (changes in map-pool and mostly balance-patches can create bumps in the graphs that can't easily be approximated by a function fit).

Just provide the raw data without any attempts at fitting it next time.
Such flammable little insects!
StatX
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Canada343 Posts
October 07 2011 13:58 GMT
#24
Whoa! Protoss making a steep drop in PvZ match up.

This is getting rdiculous...

Hopefuly they take the opportunity to change some mechanics around with HotS to fix this!
Can we snipe it? Yes we can!
Arachne
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
South Africa426 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-10-07 14:00:48
October 07 2011 13:58 GMT
#25
On October 07 2011 22:44 tnud wrote:
Calm the **** down.
[image loading]
It'll be alright
EDIT: Should be noted that the map pool rules a lot of the balance in BW.



Should also be noted that the game count for broodwar over 4 years is less than that of sc2 for 1 :D

And broodwar had no patches being applied during that period afaik (tho i will stand corrected quite happily)

Edit: Ninja'd by morrow... :O
If I were a rich man, I wouldn't be here
ZenithM
Profile Joined February 2011
France15952 Posts
October 07 2011 14:02 GMT
#26
Terran struggling a bit :'(
No more nerfs please!
Elean
Profile Joined October 2010
689 Posts
October 07 2011 14:02 GMT
#27
On October 07 2011 22:56 Rannasha wrote:
I don't like the polynomial that was fitted to the data. It's stated in the picture that it's a 3rd order polynomial (so: a x^3 + b x^2 + c x + d), which is a fairly arbitrary choice. I don't think you can just fit a polynomial function to data like this, since the data do not just come from continuous natural evolution, but also discrete jumps (changes in map-pool and mostly balance-patches can create bumps in the graphs that can't easily be approximated by a function fit).

Just provide the raw data without any attempts at fitting it next time.

Clearly the polynomial fit doesn't mean much.
Would have been better to choose a moving average (for instance over 3 months)
Dragar
Profile Joined October 2010
United Kingdom971 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-10-07 14:06:59
October 07 2011 14:04 GMT
#28
Edited. Daft question, ignore.
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
October 07 2011 14:05 GMT
#29
Let's see. The 2nd most imbalanced ZvT month on record. And the most imbalanced PvZ month on record.

Balance is going well.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
PeZuY
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
935 Posts
October 07 2011 14:07 GMT
#30
Once again people are ignorant about these diagrams and when the patch has came. The patch hasn't been out for long time so you can't see the state of the game in this yet, wait for Octobers winrate and we will see the current course of the game.
Logros
Profile Joined September 2010
Netherlands9913 Posts
October 07 2011 14:07 GMT
#31
Wow I didn't know PvZ was that bad. Also ZvT :O.
DisaFear
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Australia4074 Posts
October 07 2011 14:12 GMT
#32
Those scales are really misleading at first glance.
How devious | http://anartisticanswer.blogspot.com.au/
Binabik
Profile Joined January 2011
Germany686 Posts
October 07 2011 14:12 GMT
#33
On October 07 2011 22:55 Elean wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2011 22:47 Binabik wrote:
Don't forget that even in chess there is a 56%-44% imbalance in favor of white (moves first).
Of course that doesn't mean that we should try to keep the game imbalanced, but it means that you shouldn't worry about these percentages to much, just try to win every game!

In chess you don't always play with the same race.

But you cant have a fair bo3/bo5?
Jedclark
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United Kingdom903 Posts
October 07 2011 14:17 GMT
#34
There will always be a time where one race is superior. Blame the players, not the balance. I think the game is balanced well. Just wait for a SC2 Bisu to carry the race forward.
"They make it so scrubnubs can PM me. They make it so I can't ignore scrubnubs!" - "I'm gonna show you how great I am." MKP fan since GSL Open Season 2 #hipsternerd
Chewbacca.
Profile Joined January 2011
United States3634 Posts
October 07 2011 14:19 GMT
#35
It's pretty crazy how much a difference there is in the win % of the pro races vs the win % of master/GMaster players on ladder.

On NA/EU Masster/GMaster level P beats Z 57% of the time while here Z beats P about 57% of the time, a complete reversal.
Ctuchik
Profile Joined October 2010
Sweden91 Posts
October 07 2011 14:21 GMT
#36
On October 07 2011 22:56 Rannasha wrote:
I don't like the polynomial that was fitted to the data. It's stated in the picture that it's a 3rd order polynomial (so: a x^3 + b x^2 + c x + d), which is a fairly arbitrary choice. I don't think you can just fit a polynomial function to data like this, since the data do not just come from continuous natural evolution, but also discrete jumps (changes in map-pool and mostly balance-patches can create bumps in the graphs that can't easily be approximated by a function fit).

Just provide the raw data without any attempts at fitting it next time.


Well, it's a trend line, nothing more. I guess it could be de-emphasized a bit. I'm actually fairly happy with how it trends the data points.
http://twitter.com/sc2statistics
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
October 07 2011 14:21 GMT
#37
On October 07 2011 23:12 Binabik wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2011 22:55 Elean wrote:
On October 07 2011 22:47 Binabik wrote:
Don't forget that even in chess there is a 56%-44% imbalance in favor of white (moves first).
Of course that doesn't mean that we should try to keep the game imbalanced, but it means that you shouldn't worry about these percentages to much, just try to win every game!

In chess you don't always play with the same race.

But you cant have a fair bo3/bo5?


You don't generally have Bo3/5 in chess.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
Logros
Profile Joined September 2010
Netherlands9913 Posts
October 07 2011 14:23 GMT
#38
On October 07 2011 23:19 Chewbacca. wrote:
It's pretty crazy how much a difference there is in the win % of the pro races vs the win % of master/GMaster players on ladder.

On NA/EU Masster/GMaster level P beats Z 57% of the time while here Z beats P about 57% of the time, a complete reversal.

Well I'm a Masters player as well and I can tell you most Masters players really suck and are nowhere near the level of real pro's. So those Blizzard statistics grouping Masters and GM together don't really say anything.
Gotmog
Profile Joined October 2010
Serbia899 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-10-07 14:28:12
October 07 2011 14:26 GMT
#39
On October 07 2011 22:38 Drakeblitz wrote:
Why the imbalance in ZvT?

I don't understand.

lol xD

I was basically crying watching ZvT's in GSL, the great game they were from both sides...imbalance just makes you want to cry :/


I can say the same about late game ZvP tbh...Stephano vs Huk as an example. Z just seems heavily favored .

I was expecting a lot bigger difference in PvT though....this is strange.
"When you play the game of drones, you win or you die. There is no middle ground"
decaf
Profile Joined October 2010
Austria1797 Posts
October 07 2011 14:28 GMT
#40
People have to take into consideration that those winrates ignore the fact that maps are imbalanced and that some races might have better players than others.
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