SC2 Ladder Analysis: Part 2 - Page 13

On September 11 2010 13:51 Dwar wrote:
I believe the reason that promotions seem random and can be delayed are due to the nature of the division system. There are a limited number of spots in each division and if each spot is filled then it is not possible to promote someone until a spot opens up. A spot can open up either due to someone else being demoted or a new division being created.

As the trigger for promotion is playing a game, if you never happen to play a game when a spot is open, then no promotion will occur, even if you are long overdue for one.

On September 19 2010 06:21 littlechava wrote:
Here's my record so far, following pezyuan's format:
5-0 Beginning: Won five placement matches, placed into the bottom of a Platinum division (do I need any more information about this?)
5-1 Delta Quadrant L P Diamond 891
6-1 Blistering Sands W +44 T Diamond 899
6-2 Desert Oasis L -2 Z Diamond 1039
7-2 Blistering Sands W +40 Z Gold 507
7-3 Metalopolis L -2 T Diamond 934
7-4 Metalopolis L -4 P Diamond 764
8-4 Steppes of War W +40 P Diamond 842
8-5 Delta Quadrant L -3 T Diamond 865
8-6 Lost Temple L -6 P Diamond 616
9-6 Scrap Station W +34 T Diamond 315
10-6 Steppes of War W +40 P Diamond 481
11-6 Desert Oasis W +36 P Platinum 942
12-6 Delta Quadrant W +36 T Diamond 753
12-7 Lost Temple L -4 Z Diamond 635
13-7 Kulas Ravine W +38 P Diamond 716
13-8 Steppes of War L -5 P Diamond 892
13-9 Metalopolis L -4 Diamond 694
13-10 Delta Quadrant L -7 P Diamond 558
14-10 Steppes of War W +38 P Diamond 829
15-10 Xel'Naga Caverns W +34 P Diamond 767
16-10 Xel'Naga Caverns W +34 Z Diamond 653
17-10 Steppes of War W +36 T Diamond 752
17-11 Lost Temple L -4 T Diamond 852
18-11 Xel'Naga Caverns W +38 Z Diamond 890
- Promoted to Diamond

On September 19 2010 06:57 Excalibur_Z wrote:


Opponent W-L records would be nice. For example, that Gold guy at 500 is probably like 19-2. We can't really do very much with the displayed ratings of the rest of these players without seeing their W-L or how much bonus pool they've used, so we have to make assumptions.

That win against the 899 player was huge, and put you up against a 1k player right after that. It probably figures that you're not that high. The 500 Gold player after that likely had an MMR that was around the 800-900 Diamond region, because the win against him put you against a 900 Diamond. As you play more games, you're anchoring around the 700-800 region, and depending on bonus pool consumed, that's either right in the middle of Diamond or a little better or worse. The last couple of games against the 850 and 890 must have sealed it and kept you over the threshold with a smaller sigma.

Good stuff chava, thanks.

On September 19 2010 11:01 francoskiyo wrote:
ok i saw this in a friend of mines league, he had just been promoted to diamond, and we had been playing the around the same level of guys and had the same w/l at 40-30 he gets into diamond so i check the people in his league and at the bottom is a guy called "LastDays" (cc: 574) i checked out his match history and i saw he had lost 30 games in a row and then won 10 and had been put into diamond... i was FLIPPED, you all can check it out too if you want, but i've check back on him and he's back into silver, but i mean he found a way to trick the system into letting him into diamond

as of writing to see how far back those games were, it is listed at 2 days ago

Edit: not to mention the guys he played in those 10 games were all bronze, cept for that last guy who got promoted to silver shortly after, but at the time of playing all 10 were bronze.

On September 28 2010 01:46 Mendelfist wrote:
I didn't see it mentioned in this thread, so I thought I should bring it up: The "Bonus Pool" number on the Battlenet ladder page seems to be total spent bonus points for that team. I happen to have a complete record of my match history, and if I add all my spent bonus points they add upp to 571, which is exactly what it says on my web page:
http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/293343/1/Mendelfist/ladder/3134
I may play some games tonight so it may have changed when you read this. :-) This also means that the total available bonus pool is easy to find. I currently have 318 remaining bonus points, and 571+318=889.

I saw requests for match histories so for those interested here is mine:
http://www.lysator.liu.se/~john/history.html
It also contains data for the beta. The horizontal lines mark ladder resets. Current ladder (post beta) starts at 2010-07-27. Unfortunately I didn't start writing down spent and remaining bonus pool until recently.

I noted another thing: I have changed league once, but the "spent bonus pool" is still correct. This means that it is not reset or adjusted when you are promoted or demoted.

I hope all of this isn't old news. My match history at least maybe is of some use for those trying to analyze the ladder system.

On September 28 2010 14:28 Mendelfist wrote:
Would it be possible to find the league thresholds using "adjusted ratings", ie points minus consumed bonus pool? Examine the adjusted point distribution for a large number of leagues. Suppose we found that the adjusted points for bronze leagues drop off sharply above 300. The adjusted points for silver usually start at 0 and end at 200 etc. (This is just speculation.) Would this type of analysis be feasible? If it is, there would be a way to compare ratings across leagues.

On September 29 2010 01:29 Mendelfist wrote:
This is more me trying to understand the system than me trying to come up with useful ideas, so please bear with me.

Am I correct in that my displayed rating minus my consumed bonus pool will converge to my MMR, disregarding league thresholds/offsets, and assuming that my MMR is reasonably stable?

If so, couldn't I compare my "calculated MMR" (this is the MR column in my match history) with my gold opponents calculated MMR to determine the difference in points between the silver and gold leagues? The difference with the few data points I have seem to be around 200.