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Chocobo
United States1108 Posts
Here are the top 100 players (sorted by points) in North America. http://www.sc2ranks.com/ranks/us/all/1 1) Why are there players with 1500+ points and 70% winrates that are in bronze league? Is this just the "not getting promoted for no reason" bug? 2) Cynic has 342 wins and 354 losses, a near 50% ratio, and appears to belong in his bronze league. But then how does he have 1500+ points? | ||
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Dwar
3 Posts
As the trigger for promotion is playing a game, if you never happen to play a game when a spot is open, then no promotion will occur, even if you are long overdue for one. | ||
Excalibur_Z
United States12270 Posts
On September 11 2010 13:51 Dwar wrote: I believe the reason that promotions seem random and can be delayed are due to the nature of the division system. There are a limited number of spots in each division and if each spot is filled then it is not possible to promote someone until a spot opens up. A spot can open up either due to someone else being demoted or a new division being created. As the trigger for promotion is playing a game, if you never happen to play a game when a spot is open, then no promotion will occur, even if you are long overdue for one. I don't think I buy into that theory. Divisions have to start somewhere, and there are plenty of examples of people being promoted or demoted into a division where they're the sole member (at least, for a few minutes or so, then it starts populating). | ||
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littlechava
United States7221 Posts
5-0 Beginning: Won five placement matches, placed into the bottom of a Platinum division (do I need any more information about this?) 5-1 Delta Quadrant L P Diamond 891 6-1 Blistering Sands W +44 T Diamond 899 6-2 Desert Oasis L -2 Z Diamond 1039 7-2 Blistering Sands W +40 Z Gold 507 7-3 Metalopolis L -2 T Diamond 934 7-4 Metalopolis L -4 P Diamond 764 8-4 Steppes of War W +40 P Diamond 842 8-5 Delta Quadrant L -3 T Diamond 865 8-6 Lost Temple L -6 P Diamond 616 9-6 Scrap Station W +34 T Diamond 315 10-6 Steppes of War W +40 P Diamond 481 11-6 Desert Oasis W +36 P Platinum 942 12-6 Delta Quadrant W +36 T Diamond 753 12-7 Lost Temple L -4 Z Diamond 635 13-7 Kulas Ravine W +38 P Diamond 716 13-8 Steppes of War L -5 P Diamond 892 13-9 Metalopolis L -4 Diamond 694 13-10 Delta Quadrant L -7 P Diamond 558 14-10 Steppes of War W +38 P Diamond 829 15-10 Xel'Naga Caverns W +34 P Diamond 767 16-10 Xel'Naga Caverns W +34 Z Diamond 653 17-10 Steppes of War W +36 T Diamond 752 17-11 Lost Temple L -4 T Diamond 852 18-11 Xel'Naga Caverns W +38 Z Diamond 890 - Promoted to Diamond | ||
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Excalibur_Z
United States12270 Posts
On September 19 2010 06:21 littlechava wrote: Here's my record so far, following pezyuan's format: 5-0 Beginning: Won five placement matches, placed into the bottom of a Platinum division (do I need any more information about this?) 5-1 Delta Quadrant L P Diamond 891 6-1 Blistering Sands W +44 T Diamond 899 6-2 Desert Oasis L -2 Z Diamond 1039 7-2 Blistering Sands W +40 Z Gold 507 7-3 Metalopolis L -2 T Diamond 934 7-4 Metalopolis L -4 P Diamond 764 8-4 Steppes of War W +40 P Diamond 842 8-5 Delta Quadrant L -3 T Diamond 865 8-6 Lost Temple L -6 P Diamond 616 9-6 Scrap Station W +34 T Diamond 315 10-6 Steppes of War W +40 P Diamond 481 11-6 Desert Oasis W +36 P Platinum 942 12-6 Delta Quadrant W +36 T Diamond 753 12-7 Lost Temple L -4 Z Diamond 635 13-7 Kulas Ravine W +38 P Diamond 716 13-8 Steppes of War L -5 P Diamond 892 13-9 Metalopolis L -4 Diamond 694 13-10 Delta Quadrant L -7 P Diamond 558 14-10 Steppes of War W +38 P Diamond 829 15-10 Xel'Naga Caverns W +34 P Diamond 767 16-10 Xel'Naga Caverns W +34 Z Diamond 653 17-10 Steppes of War W +36 T Diamond 752 17-11 Lost Temple L -4 T Diamond 852 18-11 Xel'Naga Caverns W +38 Z Diamond 890 - Promoted to Diamond Opponent W-L records would be nice. For example, that Gold guy at 500 is probably like 19-2. We can't really do very much with the displayed ratings of the rest of these players without seeing their W-L or how much bonus pool they've used, so we have to make assumptions. That win against the 899 player was huge, and put you up against a 1k player right after that. It probably figures that you're not that high. The 500 Gold player after that likely had an MMR that was around the 800-900 Diamond region, because the win against him put you against a 900 Diamond. As you play more games, you're anchoring around the 700-800 region, and depending on bonus pool consumed, that's either right in the middle of Diamond or a little better or worse. The last couple of games against the 850 and 890 must have sealed it and kept you over the threshold with a smaller sigma. Good stuff chava, thanks. | ||
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littlechava
United States7221 Posts
On September 19 2010 06:57 Excalibur_Z wrote: Opponent W-L records would be nice. For example, that Gold guy at 500 is probably like 19-2. We can't really do very much with the displayed ratings of the rest of these players without seeing their W-L or how much bonus pool they've used, so we have to make assumptions. That win against the 899 player was huge, and put you up against a 1k player right after that. It probably figures that you're not that high. The 500 Gold player after that likely had an MMR that was around the 800-900 Diamond region, because the win against him put you against a 900 Diamond. As you play more games, you're anchoring around the 700-800 region, and depending on bonus pool consumed, that's either right in the middle of Diamond or a little better or worse. The last couple of games against the 850 and 890 must have sealed it and kept you over the threshold with a smaller sigma. Good stuff chava, thanks. blah sorry about that, some of the games are pretty old though so it's kinda hard to record their wins before our match. for the last three (game to the right being the game right before we played): 17-10 Steppes of War W +36 T Diamond 752 overall: 84-70 LLLLLLLWLW 17-11 Lost Temple L -4 T Diamond 852 overall: 81-45 WWLWLWWLWW 18-11 Xel'Naga Caverns W +38 Z Diamond 890 overall: 251-243 WLLLLWLWWW edit: that gold guy was 21-10 before our game, going 9-1 in his last ten matches. | ||
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francoskiyo
United States10 Posts
as of writing to see how far back those games were, it is listed at 2 days ago Edit: not to mention the guys he played in those 10 games were all bronze, cept for that last guy who got promoted to silver shortly after, but at the time of playing all 10 were bronze. | ||
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qartar
9 Posts
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Excalibur_Z
United States12270 Posts
On September 19 2010 11:01 francoskiyo wrote: ok i saw this in a friend of mines league, he had just been promoted to diamond, and we had been playing the around the same level of guys and had the same w/l at 40-30 he gets into diamond so i check the people in his league and at the bottom is a guy called "LastDays" (cc: 574) i checked out his match history and i saw he had lost 30 games in a row and then won 10 and had been put into diamond... i was FLIPPED, you all can check it out too if you want, but i've check back on him and he's back into silver, but i mean he found a way to trick the system into letting him into diamond as of writing to see how far back those games were, it is listed at 2 days ago Edit: not to mention the guys he played in those 10 games were all bronze, cept for that last guy who got promoted to silver shortly after, but at the time of playing all 10 were bronze. I'm trying to follow what you're saying, but I'm not seeing any evidence of any exploit here. What happened is that the guy got into Diamond probably around his 20th game, as many do. Once he got into Diamond, he completely tanked his rating and lost a bunch of games in a row. That alone will not demote you, because if you read the analysis, stability is required before you get relocated. After his rating had been sufficiently thrown, he won a few games against Bronze players to stabilize it. However, he won too many, and ended up stabilizing in Silver. That was when he got demoted. It sounds like you just don't understand how the system works, please read the analysis again and reply back if you still don't follow. | ||
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st3roids
Greece538 Posts
You cant have 1k+ gold players but 500 platinum ones this is bs. After countless disconects i quit game for like a month came back and suprise i was down to gold league QQ. Ater start to play again i have 1055 points atm around 60% win rate and many games won vs plat players. Still gold , An rl friend was around 650 points gold and got promoted yesterday into platinum with 55% win rate somewhow. this ladder suystem is a mess no gold player should have above rating than a plat one and no plat above diamonds fyi. Best way to fast plat - diamond give 50 bucks win the 5 placement win few more and welcome to diamond league . | ||
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McMonty
Canada379 Posts
One comment that I thought I would add is that this system seems to approach the problem of matchmaking from a perspective where player's true skill doesnt change much over time(i.e. the player doesnt improve or learn much on a short time scale.) I think this is actually a pretty big flaw in the system as especially for new players, their skill should improve quickly. I would like to see something that incorperated rate of change bsed logic in addition to historical trends. | ||
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oddern
Norway6 Posts
But when I get matched up with platinum players that have close to the equal amount of points they are "Evenly matched", should they be? Im still in gold and they are still platinum, so its strange that I get evenly matched with someone who is an entire league above me. And I dont think I belong in gold anymore, even if the system seems to think so, despite the fact that I have alot of wins against plat, and some against diamond. I apologize if I could find this answer in this thread, or the part 1, but I havent read all of it. Also my experience with the ladder system tells me that I have to get to rank 1 and then I get promoted, that is the way I did it from bronze -> silver -> gold. (I know this isnt "the way you have to do it", but its the way I've had to do it, probably just working as intended seeing as I didnt have much RTS experience before SC2, so I basically belonged in those leagues. Should I be able to get this many points in a gold league? I think that this should tell the system that it is time to promote me, and the fact that i also play in some plat/diamond teams (not that this is a particularly good pointer to solo league skill level, but I'm starting to worry that my ladder-games are somehow bugged and that I wont be able to be promoted in a million years :> http://dump.no/files/37d953052c5d/ladder.jpg (I didnt get the picture to the appropriate size, so I just added the link) | ||
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Mendelfist
Sweden356 Posts
http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/293343/1/Mendelfist/ladder/3134 I may play some games tonight so it may have changed when you read this. :-) This also means that the total available bonus pool is easy to find. I currently have 318 remaining bonus points, and 571+318=889. I saw requests for match histories so for those interested here is mine: http://www.lysator.liu.se/~john/history.html It also contains data for the beta. The horizontal lines mark ladder resets. Current ladder (post beta) starts at 2010-07-27. Unfortunately I didn't start writing down spent and remaining bonus pool until recently. I noted another thing: I have changed league once, but the "spent bonus pool" is still correct. This means that it is not reset or adjusted when you are promoted or demoted. I hope all of this isn't old news. My match history at least maybe is of some use for those trying to analyze the ladder system. | ||
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skindzer
Chile5114 Posts
My last 309 games (yeah i took the time to review them): ZvZ: 117 ZvP: 126 ZvT: 66 Maps i have thumbed down: Kulas, Desert Oasis, Stepees. | ||
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Excalibur_Z
United States12270 Posts
On September 28 2010 01:46 Mendelfist wrote: I didn't see it mentioned in this thread, so I thought I should bring it up: The "Bonus Pool" number on the Battlenet ladder page seems to be total spent bonus points for that team. I happen to have a complete record of my match history, and if I add all my spent bonus points they add upp to 571, which is exactly what it says on my web page: http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/293343/1/Mendelfist/ladder/3134 I may play some games tonight so it may have changed when you read this. :-) This also means that the total available bonus pool is easy to find. I currently have 318 remaining bonus points, and 571+318=889. I saw requests for match histories so for those interested here is mine: http://www.lysator.liu.se/~john/history.html It also contains data for the beta. The horizontal lines mark ladder resets. Current ladder (post beta) starts at 2010-07-27. Unfortunately I didn't start writing down spent and remaining bonus pool until recently. I noted another thing: I have changed league once, but the "spent bonus pool" is still correct. This means that it is not reset or adjusted when you are promoted or demoted. I hope all of this isn't old news. My match history at least maybe is of some use for those trying to analyze the ladder system. We discovered recently (it was from a user on these forums, but I forget your username, sorry) that the pool on the website corresponded to consumed bonus pool, and that has been extremely useful. Your match history looks to be very thorough, thanks a lot for that. I'll take a look and see if I can identify any trends. | ||
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Mendelfist
Sweden356 Posts
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Excalibur_Z
United States12270 Posts
On September 28 2010 14:28 Mendelfist wrote: Would it be possible to find the league thresholds using "adjusted ratings", ie points minus consumed bonus pool? Examine the adjusted point distribution for a large number of leagues. Suppose we found that the adjusted points for bronze leagues drop off sharply above 300. The adjusted points for silver usually start at 0 and end at 200 etc. (This is just speculation.) Would this type of analysis be feasible? If it is, there would be a way to compare ratings across leagues. We still think it's MMR-sigma*3 and nothing having to do with actual displayed rating. We can prove this by looking up points across all divisions on SC2Ranks, where some Bronze players have far more points than we would expect the threshold to be. There's a Bronze player with 2400 points, for example, one with 1900, some with 1800. The only way we could determine the league thresholds would be to have full match histories of one player as well as every player he encountered on the way to his promotion and every player they have encountered as well. | ||
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Mendelfist
Sweden356 Posts
Am I correct in that my displayed rating minus my consumed bonus pool will converge to my MMR, disregarding league thresholds/offsets, and assuming that my MMR is reasonably stable? If so, couldn't I compare my "calculated MMR" (this is the MR column in my match history) with my gold opponents calculated MMR to determine the difference in points between the silver and gold leagues? The difference with the few data points I have seem to be around 200. | ||
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BoldReceiver
United States3 Posts
http://kaggle.com/chess They're having a contest to write a better prediction system than Elo (not too hard). Elo's system was written hastily and was the first shot at doing something like this. They are providing a 65k games data set (8 thousand players) to try your hand with and judging the results versus predictions on a private set of ~8k results. There's even prize money and some stuff signed by a few World Chess champions. I'm not surprised Elo is being beaten but I am surprise that even Glicko-2 is sitting in 38th place. I might take a crack at implementing a TrueSkill like rater just to see where it stacks up. Suggestions for ideas outside the usual are welcomed. Terry O' | ||
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Excalibur_Z
United States12270 Posts
On September 29 2010 01:29 Mendelfist wrote: This is more me trying to understand the system than me trying to come up with useful ideas, so please bear with me. Am I correct in that my displayed rating minus my consumed bonus pool will converge to my MMR, disregarding league thresholds/offsets, and assuming that my MMR is reasonably stable? If so, couldn't I compare my "calculated MMR" (this is the MR column in my match history) with my gold opponents calculated MMR to determine the difference in points between the silver and gold leagues? The difference with the few data points I have seem to be around 200. I'm not completely confident in the accuracy, but naturally I won't dissuade you from trying. If you happen to find any trends then that would be a huge leap forward. | ||
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