MSI MGA Grand Finals 2015

SetGuitarsToKill

Canada28396 Posts

August 28 2015 08:10 GMT

Sunday, Aug 30 3:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00)

http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2015_MSI_Masters_Gaming_Arena
Preview

Host: Chobra
Casters/Analysts: ToD | RotterdaM | Axeltoss

Main Stream

Group A:
(Z)

Hydra -

INnoVation - (P)

MacSed -

Has
Group B:
(P)

PartinG -

HyuN -

FireCake - (Z)

Ian
Group C:
(P)

sOs -

Solar -

Harstem -

TooDming
Group D:
(T)

Polt -

Jaedong -

Petraeus - (Z)

viOLet

http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2015_MSI_Masters_Gaming_Arena#Group_Stage

Die4Ever

United States17720 Posts

August 28 2015 08:21 GMT

MSI Masters hasn't had a lot of buzz, but these WCS Points could be very important for Jaedong, Solar, Hyun, and sOs since he replaced Zest.

sOs, currently at 2400 WCS Points, got a huge boost just by replacing Zest, he went from 27.48% Blizzcon Chances up to 51.13%. However, if sOs loses in the first round then he goes 27.38%. Just advancing a single round (8th place) would put sOs at 50.41%, and a 1st place would put him at 97.4%. If he gets 8th in MSI and 16th in GSL then he goes down to 16.87%. If he gets an 8th in MSI, GSL, and Dreamhack, then he goes up to 94.96%.

Jaedong is at 11.82% with 1525 WCS Points. He's not really on the edge yet, so a 16th place here wouldn't hurt him too badly, bringing him down to 9.45%, and similarly a 1st place would only bring him up to 24.2%. Jaedong really needs to make the WCS finals to have a decent chance, even a 4th place in WCS would put him at just 4.17%.

Solar is in a similar position as Jaedong, at 9.15% Blizzcon Chances and 1350 WCS Points. A 16th place here puts him at 6.58% while a 1st place puts him at 17.13%. Solar needs to focus on GSL where a 4th place would put him at 3.58%, 2nd place at 17.62%, and 1st place at 94.39%.

Hyun is different as he doesn't have a WCS primary tournament (WCS/GSL/SSL) left but he has more WCS Points at 2125, and 8.67% Blizzcon Chances. Because he's relying on partner tournaments now, this tournament can give him a huge swing, between 16th place bringing him down to 1.51%, 2nd place to 11.6%, and 1st place bringing him up to 50.64%. He's also still in the 4Gamers tournament where he's facing Parting next, if he loses there then that's 4th place and puts him at 5.63%. If he wins 1st place in both MSI and 4Gamers then he goes up to 77.15%. 8th in MSI and 4th in 4Gamers would put him down at 3.18%. A 1st place win in MSI and a 4th place in 4Gamers is still only 30.32%. A 2nd place in MSI, 2nd place in Dreamhack, and 4th place in 4Gamers would put him up at 87.05%.

WCS Predictor 2015
MSI Masters Day 1
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Changes From sOs Replacing Zest] +

Biggest Winners

sOs went up by 23.65%, going from 27.48% to 51.13%

Biggest Losers

FanTaSy went down by 8.03%, going from 69.52% to 61.49%

Dark went down by 4.44%, going from 78.99% to 74.55%

TY went down by 2.67%, going from 27.35% to 24.68%

HyuN went down by 1.42%, going from 10.09% to 8.67%

Rogue went down by 1.38%, going from 97.23% to 95.85%

Lilbow went down by 0.94%, going from 14.42% to 13.48%

GuMiho went down by 0.7%, going from 7.81% to 7.11%
+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] +

ForGG went down by 0.63%, going from 14.85% to 14.22%

Jaedong went down by 0.53%, going from 12.34% to 11.82%

Solar went down by 0.45%, going from 9.61% to 9.15%

Dear went down by 0.38%, going from 5.87% to 5.5%

Stats went down by 0.37%, going from 2.99% to 2.62%

Snute went down by 0.32%, going from 7.71% to 7.4%

MarineLorD went down by 0.29%, going from 4.79% to 4.5%

Petraeus went down by 0.22%, going from 1.27% to 1.04%

Bbyong went down by 0.15%, going from 4.39% to 4.25%

INnoVation, MacSed, Hydra, and Has in
in MSI Masters round of 16.
INnoVation is at 99.98% Blizzcon Chances, with a 81.08% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.92% if they lose.
Hydra is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 78.11% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.
MacSed is at 0% Blizzcon Chances, with a 14.58% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0%, or 0% if they lose.
Has is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 26.23% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose.

FireCake, Ian, HyuN, and PartinG in
in MSI Masters round of 16.
HyuN must win this match!
FireCake is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 41.83% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0.01% if they lose.
HyuN is at 8.67% Blizzcon Chances, with a 65.83% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 12.39%, or 1.51% if they lose.
Ian is at 0% Blizzcon Chances, with a 22.01% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0%, or 0% if they lose.
PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 70.33% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.

sOs, TooDming, Harstem, and Solar in
in MSI Masters round of 16.
sOs is at 51.13% Blizzcon Chances, with a 65.83% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 63.46%, or 27.38% if they lose.
Harstem is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 34.45% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0.01% if they lose.
TooDming is at 0% Blizzcon Chances, with a 28.43% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0%, or 0% if they lose.
Solar is at 9.15% Blizzcon Chances, with a 71.29% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 10.19%, or 6.58% if they lose.

Petraeus, Jaedong, Polt, and viOLet in
in MSI Masters round of 16.
Petraeus is at 1.04% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.07% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 1.79%, or 0.38% if they lose.
Polt is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 52.77% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose.
Jaedong is at 11.82% Blizzcon Chances, with a 56.8% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 13.61%, or 9.45% if they lose.
viOLet is at 0.18% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.35% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.37%, or 0.04% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [MSI Winning Chances] +

INnoVation has a 19.39% chance to win
----going from 99.98% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.98% if they don't.

Hydra has a 14.08% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Solar has a 11.44% chance to win
----going from 9.15% to 17.13% if they get 1st, or 8.12% if they don't.

PartinG has a 10.6% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

HyuN has a 9.2% chance to win
----going from 8.67% to 50.64% if they get 1st, or 4.42% if they don't.
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +

sOs has a 8.52% chance to win
----going from 51.13% to 97.4% if they get 1st, or 46.82% if they don't.

Jaedong has a 6.6% chance to win
----going from 11.82% to 24.2% if they get 1st, or 10.94% if they don't.

Polt has a 5.95% chance to win
----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't.

Petraeus has a 4.37% chance to win
----going from 1.04% to 6.62% if they get 1st, or 0.79% if they don't.

viOLet has a 3.09% chance to win
----going from 0.18% to 2.16% if they get 1st, or 0.12% if they don't.

FireCake has a 2.73% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Harstem has a 1.52% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

TooDming has a 0.96% chance to win
----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.

Has has a 0.94% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Ian has a 0.45% chance to win
----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.

MacSed has a 0.17% chance to win
----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.

+ Show Spoiler [MSI Placements Table] +

noobPride

Spain333 Posts

August 28 2015 08:28 GMT

How long since the last Axeltoss appearance on a live event? The memories...

Diabolique

Czech Republic5118 Posts

August 28 2015 09:16 GMT

HAS! We will be seeing Has!!! Against Innovation, it might be a delight ... Inno relies on late game ... I am pretty sure, there will be no late game :-)

SetGuitarsToKill

Canada28396 Posts

August 28 2015 09:22 GMT

Correction! Liquipedia had it wrong, this starts on the 30th. Heroes starts on the 28th. Their schedule was confusing.

RKC

2848 Posts

August 28 2015 12:58 GMT

Thanks for hyping this up, SGTK! Early LR best LR!

So will the entire SC2 tourney be played in a single day on the 30th? Or does it extend to another day? (If yes, just seems kinda weird for a weekend tourney to spill over a Monday)

rotta

5598 Posts

August 28 2015 13:35 GMT

On August 28 2015 18:22 SetGuitarsToKill wrote:
Correction! Liquipedia had it wrong, this starts on the 30th. Heroes starts on the 28th. Their schedule was confusing.

It's a good thing they just put LP links on their website. :D

Aeromi

France14461 Posts

August 28 2015 14:10 GMT

On August 28 2015 21:58 RKC wrote:
Thanks for hyping this up, SGTK! Early LR best LR!

So will the entire SC2 tourney be played in a single day on the 30th? Or does it extend to another day? (If yes, just seems kinda weird for a weekend tourney to spill over a Monday)

It's a two days event.

intotheheart

Canada33091 Posts

August 28 2015 14:19 GMT

I technically have to cheer on sOs right?

GOGO SOS BEST PROTOSS 2015 TOP FIVE PLAYERS OF ALL TIME, STUCHIU!
#SOSWASROBBED

Am I doing it right? :/

stuchiu

Fiddler's Green42661 Posts

August 28 2015 14:39 GMT

#10

No cause Has is here.

rotta

5598 Posts

August 28 2015 14:41 GMT

#11

I wonder if Bogus has seen any recent WCS games or that Has vs. MMA... :D

intotheheart

Canada33091 Posts

August 28 2015 14:42 GMT

#12

On August 28 2015 23:39 stuchiu wrote:
No cause Has is here.

Ah okay.
GOGO HAS!
EVIL MUST PREVAIL!

Heartland

Sweden24593 Posts

August 29 2015 07:25 GMT

#13

is it just me or are the sc2 vods not up in their past broadcast?

SetGuitarsToKill

Canada28396 Posts

August 29 2015 07:37 GMT

#14

On August 29 2015 16:25 Heartland wrote:
is it just me or are the sc2 vods not up in their past broadcast?

Refer to my previous post. The SC2 starts on the 30th.

Heartland

Sweden24593 Posts

August 29 2015 07:38 GMT

#15

On August 29 2015 16:37 SetGuitarsToKill wrote:

Show nested quote +

Refer to my previous post. The SC2 starts on the 30th.

Oh... How weird.

Die4Ever

United States17720 Posts

August 30 2015 03:10 GMT

#16

HYPE!

Shellshock

United States97276 Posts

August 30 2015 04:19 GMT

#17

tournament starting on Sunday? weird. should be a good event though. solid lineup

swissman777

1106 Posts

August 30 2015 04:27 GMT

#18

sOs pls

Circumstance

United States11403 Posts

August 30 2015 05:58 GMT

#19

I'd actually love to see a good run from Ian in this tournament. He always came painfully close to making WCS, and he spent time training in Korea without really getting a chance to make something of it.

Diabolique

Czech Republic5118 Posts

August 30 2015 12:48 GMT

#20

OK, if I may choose the semifinal participants, it will be sOs vs. Hydra and JaeDong vs. Has. So far, JD has successfully deflected all cheeses against him in the last time or revenged them immediately, so seeing him against Has would be a delight. And of course I wish sOs to win it all, so that he has more chances for Blizzcon. JD needs the points, too, but he primarily needs to get to the finals of WCS ...

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