[DreamHack] Winter Day 2

[DreamHack] Winter Day 2 - Page 3

y0su

Finland7871 Posts

November 23 2012 12:20 GMT

#41

On November 23 2012 21:10 Hatsu wrote:
MULTISTREAM (all English streams embedded on one page)

Feedback is appreciated, enjoy.

It's awesome :D
<3

n0ise

3452 Posts

November 23 2012 12:21 GMT

#42

zergs need to start writing silly stuff with infested terrans when they're that far ahead

Pandain

United States12989 Posts

November 23 2012 12:21 GMT

#43

Just tuned , why is TLO on two bases?

coko

United Kingdom570 Posts

November 23 2012 12:23 GMT

#44

Snute 1 - STC 0

Seemed like hellion opening into expand from STC, versus early roach aggression, but by the time the roaches arrived stim and two bunkers were ready. Then some heavy droning into 3 bases, with good number of queens with a lot of tumors.

STC attempted drops that didn't achieve much before dying, while trying to stop a 4th. Then moved out with 3 siege tanks, and got surrounded by a large number of 2/2 lings with adrenal being upgraded.

From there, he had to give up his third, defended well with bunkers, but good macro, constant infestor and ling production stopped the third coming up, Snute double STC's supply and pushed in to win.

saksy2

Norway520 Posts

November 23 2012 12:23 GMT

#45

Snute stomps TheStC in game 1

Sbrubbles

Brazil5776 Posts

November 23 2012 12:23 GMT

#46

STC didn't look too good that game. Snute played relatively flawlessly (although with a weird strategy) and simply rolled him.

Gevna

France2332 Posts

November 23 2012 12:24 GMT

#47

Feast 1-0 Starnan

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

November 23 2012 12:25 GMT

#48

Here are the current predictions assuming sensible tiebreakers (namely match score, set score, internal matches, rematch, in that order). They seem to indicate that Feast and Nightend are the BYOCers with the best chances.

+ Show Spoiler [Group 1] +

Group 1

TaeJa
      Expected score: 4.76-0.24 (sets: 9.66-1.78)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 100.00%
      Most likely place: 1st (98.77%)

TheStC
      Expected score: 2.63-2.37 (sets: 7.46-7.02)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 68.47%
      Most likely place: 2nd (50.94%)

Fraer
      Expected score: 2.63-2.37 (sets: 6.46-6.02)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 65.56%
      Most likely place: 3rd (34.71%)

Stephano
      Expected score: 2.74-2.26 (sets: 5.62-6.82)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 41.33%
      Most likely place: 4th (37.15%)

Snute
      Expected score: 1.71-3.29 (sets: 4.84-7.51)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 24.64%
      Most likely place: 6th (31.31%)

elfi
      Expected score: 0.53-4.47 (sets: 4.30-9.20)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 0.00%
      Most likely place: 6th (68.69%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
         TaeJa:                                        1.23%   98.77%
        TheStC:             8.73%   22.81%   17.52%   50.94%         
         Fraer:            12.68%   21.76%   34.71%   30.85%         
      Stephano:            21.52%   37.15%   36.11%    5.22%         
         Snute:   31.31%   25.77%   18.28%   11.65%   11.76%    1.23%
          elfi:   68.69%   31.31%                                    

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
         TaeJa:                                       24.08%   75.92%
        TheStC:                     36.92%   63.08%                  
         Fraer:                     36.77%   63.23%                  
      Stephano:                     26.24%   73.76%                  
         Snute:   11.81%   32.32%   33.95%   17.25%    4.30%    0.36%
          elfi:   47.00%   53.00%                                    

Set score

                     -10       -9       -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9       10
         TaeJa:                                                                                                                                           9.98%   14.10%            29.75%   46.16%         
        TheStC:                                                                           17.08%   19.84%            28.32%   34.76%                                                                        
         Fraer:                                                                           16.80%   19.97%            28.49%   34.74%                                                                        
      Stephano:                                                         11.34%   14.90%            29.76%   44.00%                                                                                          
         Snute:    0.67%    2.51%    4.07%    4.96%    8.26%   11.06%   10.34%   10.77%   12.32%    9.90%    7.29%    6.36%    4.84%    2.78%    1.75%    1.22%    0.56%    0.20%    0.10%    0.04%    0.01%
          elfi:                              23.22%   23.78%            26.07%   26.93%

+ Show Spoiler [Group 2] +

Group 2

Mana
      Expected score: 4.61-0.39 (sets: 9.43-4.07)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 100.00%
      Most likely place: 1st (71.80%)

Socke
      Expected score: 3.45-1.55 (sets: 8.16-4.33)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 100.00%
      Most likely place: 2nd (57.01%)

Feast
      Expected score: 2.59-2.41 (sets: 6.38-6.07)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 52.77%
      Most likely place: 3rd (24.62%)

Bly
      Expected score: 2.57-2.43 (sets: 5.37-7.13)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 38.62%
      Most likely place: 4th (41.88%)

SaSe
      Expected score: 1.49-3.51 (sets: 6.25-7.26)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 8.62%
      Most likely place: 5th (53.48%)

StarNaN
      Expected score: 0.29-4.71 (sets: 2.87-9.59)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 0.00%
      Most likely place: 6th (93.15%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
          Mana:                               2.28%   25.93%   71.80%
         Socke:                              25.88%   57.01%   17.11%
           Bly:            19.50%   41.88%   38.62%                  
          SaSe:            53.48%   37.90%    8.62%                  
         Feast:    6.85%   20.17%   20.21%   24.62%   17.06%   11.09%
       StarNaN:   93.15%    6.85%                                    

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
          Mana:                                       39.00%   61.00%
         Socke:                              55.00%   45.00%         
           Bly:                     42.61%   57.39%                  
          SaSe:            50.56%   49.44%                           
         Feast:    2.22%   13.51%   30.73%   33.75%   16.61%    3.19%
       StarNaN:   71.43%   28.57%                                    

Set score

                     -10       -9       -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9       10
          Mana:                                                                                                                        18.00%   21.00%            28.55%   32.45%                           
         Socke:                                                                                                               28.70%   26.30%            23.38%   21.61%                                    
           Bly:                                                         20.40%   22.21%            27.36%   30.03%                                                                                          
          SaSe:                                                                  24.77%   25.79%            24.84%   24.60%                                                                                 
         Feast:    0.09%    0.30%    0.72%    1.04%    2.35%    4.22%    5.07%    6.86%    9.79%   10.86%   10.29%   11.33%   11.04%    8.09%    6.19%    5.36%    3.19%    1.49%    1.08%    0.54%    0.09%
       StarNaN:                     42.06%   29.37%            16.22%   12.35%

+ Show Spoiler [Group 3] +

Group 3

monchi
      Expected score: 3.61-1.39 (sets: 8.44-3.05)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 99.58%
      Most likely place: 1st (62.53%)

Nerchio
      Expected score: 3.74-1.26 (sets: 7.63-3.81)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 96.49%
      Most likely place: 2nd (50.37%)

TheLittleOne
      Expected score: 3.58-1.42 (sets: 8.38-6.12)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 81.59%
      Most likely place: 3rd (50.28%)

Bischu
      Expected score: 1.97-3.03 (sets: 5.32-7.10)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 22.34%
      Most likely place: 4th (34.31%)

DIMAGA
      Expected score: 1.54-3.46 (sets: 4.31-7.18)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 0.00%
      Most likely place: 5th (56.62%)

TargA
      Expected score: 0.56-4.44 (sets: 2.34-9.16)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 0.00%
      Most likely place: 6th (83.55%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
        monchi:                      0.42%   20.86%   16.20%   62.53%
  TheLittleOne:                     18.41%   50.28%   26.43%    4.87%
       Nerchio:                      3.51%   18.02%   50.37%   28.10%
        Bischu:   16.21%   27.14%   34.31%   10.84%    7.00%    4.50%
        DIMAGA:    0.24%   56.62%   43.14%                           
         TargA:   83.55%   16.25%    0.21%                           

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
        monchi:                              38.53%   61.47%         
  TheLittleOne:                              42.41%   57.59%         
       Nerchio:                              25.54%   74.46%         
        Bischu:    7.94%   26.41%   35.18%   22.55%    6.97%    0.95%
        DIMAGA:            46.05%   53.95%                           
         TargA:   44.50%   55.50%                                    

Set score

                     -10       -9       -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9       10
        monchi:                                                                                                                        17.81%   20.72%            28.14%   33.33%                           
  TheLittleOne:                                                                                             19.83%   22.58%            27.39%   30.20%                                                      
       Nerchio:                                                                                                      10.96%   14.58%            29.67%   44.78%                                             
        Bischu:    0.36%    1.67%    2.58%    3.43%    6.17%    8.88%    9.19%    9.93%   12.34%   11.07%    8.52%    8.19%    6.75%    4.08%    2.86%    2.07%    1.07%    0.43%    0.29%    0.10%    0.02%
        DIMAGA:                                                22.49%   23.56%            25.72%   28.23%                                                                                                   
         TargA:            21.83%   22.67%            26.64%   28.87%

+ Show Spoiler [Group 4] +

Group 4

HerO
      Expected score: 4.73-0.27 (sets: 9.61-1.84)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 100.00%
      Most likely place: 1st (96.99%)

ThorZaIN
      Expected score: 2.49-2.51 (sets: 6.24-6.26)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 69.27%
      Most likely place: 2nd (46.38%)

Naniwa
      Expected score: 2.56-2.44 (sets: 5.35-6.14)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 57.05%
      Most likely place: 3rd (34.59%)

NightEnD
      Expected score: 2.12-2.88 (sets: 5.57-6.85)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 44.57%
      Most likely place: 2nd (25.33%)

fOrGG
      Expected score: 1.67-3.33 (sets: 4.53-6.94)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 19.64%
      Most likely place: 4th (32.47%)

ret
      Expected score: 1.42-3.58 (sets: 5.12-8.37)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 9.48%
      Most likely place: 6th (51.80%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
          HerO:                                        3.01%   96.99%
      ThorZaIN:    0.55%    8.86%   21.32%   22.89%   46.38%         
        Naniwa:    4.77%   21.30%   16.88%   34.59%   22.46%         
           ret:   51.80%   22.88%   15.84%    8.60%    0.88%         
         fOrGG:   17.74%   30.15%   32.47%   17.69%    1.95%         
      NightEnD:   25.15%   16.80%   13.48%   16.23%   25.33%    3.01%

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
          HerO:                                       27.35%   72.65%
      ThorZaIN:                     50.70%   49.30%                  
        Naniwa:                     43.71%   56.29%                  
           ret:            57.54%   42.46%                           
         fOrGG:            32.78%   67.22%                           
      NightEnD:    5.81%   23.06%   35.52%   25.56%    8.96%    1.09%

Set score

                     -10       -9       -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9       10
          HerO:                                                                                                                                          11.76%   15.59%            29.65%   43.00%         
      ThorZaIN:                                                                           25.45%   25.25%            24.78%   24.53%                                                                        
        Naniwa:                                                                  20.98%   22.73%            26.72%   29.57%                                                                                 
           ret:                                                30.27%   27.27%            22.29%   20.17%                                                                                                   
         fOrGG:                                                14.61%   18.17%            28.93%   38.29%                                                                                                   
      NightEnD:    0.23%    1.07%    2.01%    2.59%    5.05%    7.83%    8.14%    9.40%   12.27%   11.44%    9.21%    9.22%    7.91%    4.94%    3.52%    2.70%    1.40%    0.55%    0.36%    0.15%    0.02%

Mouzone

3937 Posts

November 23 2012 12:25 GMT

#49

Rofl, typical TLO game.

Daswollvieh

5553 Posts

November 23 2012 12:25 GMT

#50

TLO... this guy!

Pandain

United States12989 Posts

November 23 2012 12:25 GMT

#51

Wow what a sick on-the-fly build by Bischu that was really really well timed and should've won even if he could only kill a third, but TLO is just <3<3

Zheryn

Sweden3653 Posts

November 23 2012 12:26 GMT

#52

I have no idea why protoss players keep doing 2 base all ins with stacked sentrys vs 2base zergs :D

WIllBIll

590 Posts

November 23 2012 12:26 GMT

#53

Them fungals man. Lifesavers.

Laryleprakon

New Zealand9496 Posts

November 23 2012 12:26 GMT

#54

Gogo TLO

Such a weird game.

AlternativeEgo

Sweden17309 Posts

November 23 2012 12:26 GMT

#55

You casted fungal on the second stream?

rasnj

United States1959 Posts

November 23 2012 12:26 GMT

#56

Pretty interesting from TLO. Feels like a straightup defense would have failed with ling infestor only when there is a colo with the push, however I wonder what would have happened if Bischu hadn't allowed that chain fungal, seems like close to a hard counter when executed well.

Vansetsu

United States1454 Posts

November 23 2012 12:26 GMT

#57

Dear lord Dreamhack's stream quality is crazy good.