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On November 15 2012 02:10 Shellshock1122 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 15 2012 02:09 Pogomais wrote:On November 15 2012 00:12 m0ck wrote:
I wouldn't call Hero beating Stephano an upset either, but Hero has the advantage going in. Good results lately versus strong zerg opponents and he must have been preparing for the tournament since MLG a week and a half ago. Though Stephano made Crank look silly, his results in the match-up lately have been, at best, shaky. On top of that, Hero should be less strained by travel, though Stephano seems pretty impervious to fatigue. Finally, the map-pool for WCS is good for protoss. There is a reason why Korean protoss so dominated the Asian part of the qualifier.
A match between Stephano and Roro is tough to call, but simply based on the quality of practice you have to give the advantage to Roro. And if Stephano continues his tendency to build a relatively low amount of infestors, that could very well kill him if the match drags on.
Finally, Idra winning any match would be an upset, but not a big one. ZvZ is a much more stable match-up these days, but it is still hard being much better than your opponent. ZvP, well, that may depend more on Hero's form than on Idra's.
Chance of advancing:
65% Hero
60% Roro
55% Stephano
20% Idra Chance of advancing: 55% Hero 55% Roro 55% Stephano 0% Idra we need gedatsu
Seems legit. 55%+55%+55% = 165%, and two of three of the players with a chance to advance are zergs so removing 66% from 165% we get 100% (rounding). That means Hero will advance no matter what.
On November 15 2012 01:28 00Visor wrote:
Chance of advancing:
A: Parting 90%, Socke 50%, Illusion 40%, Fenix 20%
B: Vortix 65%, Vibe 50%, Suppy 45%, Comm 40%
C: Sen 75%, Grubby 50%, Huk 45%, Killer 30%
D: Rain 95%, Babyknight 70%, State 20%, MaFia 15%
E: Stephano 70%, RorO 65%, HerO 55%, IdrA 10%
F: Curious 75%, herO 55%, TitaN 40%, Major 30%
G: Lucifron 95%, Lowely 75%, Insur 25%, Levin 5%
H: Creator 75%, Nerchio 55%, Scarlett 50%, moonglade 20%
I also took into account the initial matchups. Nerchio would have a higher % if he wouldnt have to go against Creator first.
Lowely had an incredible drawing luck. Would be at 10-30% in most other groups.
My head hurts now.
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haha the event starts at 9pm for east coast bros, and goes until like 7am. I'll try to watch as much as i can. Really really hyped for this
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China6333 Posts
On November 15 2012 00:12 m0ck wrote:
I wouldn't call Hero beating Stephano an upset either, but Hero has the advantage going in. Good results lately versus strong zerg opponents and he must have been preparing for the tournament since MLG a week and a half ago. Though Stephano made Crank look silly, his results in the match-up lately have been, at best, shaky. On top of that, Hero should be less strained by travel, though Stephano seems pretty impervious to fatigue. Finally, the map-pool for WCS is good for protoss. There is a reason why Korean protoss so dominated the Asian part of the qualifier.
A match between Stephano and Roro is tough to call, but simply based on the quality of practice you have to give the advantage to Roro. And if Stephano continues his tendency to build a relatively low amount of infestors, that could very well kill him if the match drags on.
Finally, Idra winning any match would be an upset, but not a big one. ZvZ is a much more stable match-up these days, but it is still hard being much better than your opponent. ZvP, well, that may depend more on Hero's form than on Idra's.
Chance of advancing:
65% Hero
60% Roro
55% Stephano
20% Idra
HerO's record against Stephano this year is 1-3 in series and 4-7 in games, he doesn't have any advantage considering their past records and the current PvZ metagame.
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United States97277 Posts
On November 15 2012 02:51 gedatsu wrote:Show nested quote +On November 15 2012 02:10 Shellshock1122 wrote:On November 15 2012 02:09 Pogomais wrote:On November 15 2012 00:12 m0ck wrote:
I wouldn't call Hero beating Stephano an upset either, but Hero has the advantage going in. Good results lately versus strong zerg opponents and he must have been preparing for the tournament since MLG a week and a half ago. Though Stephano made Crank look silly, his results in the match-up lately have been, at best, shaky. On top of that, Hero should be less strained by travel, though Stephano seems pretty impervious to fatigue. Finally, the map-pool for WCS is good for protoss. There is a reason why Korean protoss so dominated the Asian part of the qualifier.
A match between Stephano and Roro is tough to call, but simply based on the quality of practice you have to give the advantage to Roro. And if Stephano continues his tendency to build a relatively low amount of infestors, that could very well kill him if the match drags on.
Finally, Idra winning any match would be an upset, but not a big one. ZvZ is a much more stable match-up these days, but it is still hard being much better than your opponent. ZvP, well, that may depend more on Hero's form than on Idra's.
Chance of advancing:
65% Hero
60% Roro
55% Stephano
20% Idra Chance of advancing: 55% Hero 55% Roro 55% Stephano 0% Idra we need gedatsu Seems legit. 55%+55%+55% = 165%, and two of three of the players with a chance to advance are zergs so removing 66% from 165% we get 100% (rounding). That means Hero will advance no matter what. Show nested quote +On November 15 2012 01:28 00Visor wrote:
Chance of advancing:
A: Parting 90%, Socke 50%, Illusion 40%, Fenix 20%
B: Vortix 65%, Vibe 50%, Suppy 45%, Comm 40%
C: Sen 75%, Grubby 50%, Huk 45%, Killer 30%
D: Rain 95%, Babyknight 70%, State 20%, MaFia 15%
E: Stephano 70%, RorO 65%, HerO 55%, IdrA 10%
F: Curious 75%, herO 55%, TitaN 40%, Major 30%
G: Lucifron 95%, Lowely 75%, Insur 25%, Levin 5%
H: Creator 75%, Nerchio 55%, Scarlett 50%, moonglade 20%
I also took into account the initial matchups. Nerchio would have a higher % if he wouldnt have to go against Creator first.
Lowely had an incredible drawing luck. Would be at 10-30% in most other groups. My head hurts now.
I knew you wouldnt let me down
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Group E is very likely to be the only group, where a Korean drops out first round. I have no true faith in hero. The rest will go through no problem!
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This voting without Lucifron seems not legit for me. he beat stephano recently with 3-1(!?) and nerchio with 3-0 in the stim to the win cup. so i guess he should defnitly been listed.
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Sucks that Europe can´t watch this live...  Was really looking forward to it.
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On November 15 2012 03:24 Daswollvieh wrote:Sucks that Europe can´t watch this live... Was really looking forward to it.
Weakling.
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On November 15 2012 03:24 Daswollvieh wrote:Sucks that Europe can´t watch this live... Was really looking forward to it.
Pff, it's weekend, just get up early... 
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This tournament could turn disappointing very quickly. Terran is the only thing that makes a match dynamic. Too many ZvP/ZvZ/PvP will get incredibly stale.
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Group B and G are really underpar compared to the other ones, no insult intended. Anyways going to be a fun tourney, really looking forward to it, can't really see a non-korean make it to the finals, maybe Stephano is going to baffle us once more, I doubt it this time though. GL to all the foreigners!
Oh and yes let's hope at least 1 or 2 terrans make it through the group stage, Lucifron you have to represent!
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Jesus, how were the groups formed? Random?
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On November 15 2012 04:03 CrazyBirdman wrote:Show nested quote +On November 15 2012 03:24 Daswollvieh wrote:Sucks that Europe can´t watch this live... Was really looking forward to it. Pff, it's weekend, just get up early...
its better to just stay awake.
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On November 15 2012 04:43 TheSir wrote:Show nested quote +On November 15 2012 04:03 CrazyBirdman wrote:On November 15 2012 03:24 Daswollvieh wrote:Sucks that Europe can´t watch this live... Was really looking forward to it. Pff, it's weekend, just get up early... its better to just stay awake.
Possible, but I want to be conscious by the time the finals happen.
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i wish the korean lineup was a bit more representative...
eventhough there are a couple of strong kespa players, and strong esf players aswell, it seems like alot of the strong and long-time top players are missing (would've loved to see mvp/marineKing/leenock/...)
i know everyone tried to qualify, but somehow it kinda kills my hype
rooting for Hero and Socke! (and eager to see scarlett in action xD )
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Broadcast starts at 11pm on east coast? Rough.
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opterown
Australia54785 Posts
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shouldn't the title be BWC instead of WCS?
it seems blizzard is pushing for BWC instead. probably because they don't want to be confused with WCG
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You guys didn't really think they would broadcast at NA or EU times for a tournament in China, right?
My biggest problem with the finals from the start has been the terrible broadcast times. WCS Asia viewership was awful and I think it was mostly because of that.
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EPT
