EPTOn November 15 2012 20:46 Trashman420 wrote:
I think you're talking about hand-egg, not football.
I think you're talking about hand-egg, not football.
This. Fuckin Americans, man.
[WCS] Global Finals Day 1 - Page 11
| Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments |
|
emis
Estonia409 Posts
This. Fuckin Americans, man. | ||
|
TheBB
Switzerland5133 Posts
Lately I have gotten a bit of (reasonable) criticism that my probabilities are out of touch with reality. This is because the TLPD rating system has certain deficiencies. For this post, I have employed the SC2Charts system instead, in a sort of experimental run. The problem with this system is that I don't know how it translates into an Elo-like model, and the SC2Charts website doesn't have all the necessary information. Thus, I've had to take some numbers out of thin air. As such, I'd like it very much if you could tell me how these numbers look to you, subjectively. Specifically, are the high probabilities too high and the low ones too low, or should they be more extreme than they are? Personally I feel these numbers reflect reality much better than what I'd get if I were to use the TLPD ratings. + Show Spoiler [Group A] + Group A Parting: 88.21% Fenix: 48.66% Socke: 34.27% Illusion: 28.86% Detailed placement probabilities + Show Spoiler [Group B] + Group B Vortix: 77.53% Suppy: 58.72% CommItment: 34.56% ViBE: 29.20% Detailed placement probabilities + Show Spoiler [Group C] + Group C Sen: 75.73% HuK: 48.98% Grubby: 41.22% dKilleR: 34.06% Detailed placement probabilities + Show Spoiler [Group D] + Group D By.Rain: 93.41% BabyKnight: 60.46% State: 27.54% MaFia: 18.59% Detailed placement probabilities + Show Spoiler [Group E] + Group E Stephano: 72.45% HerO: 60.57% RorO: 45.43% IdrA: 21.55% Detailed placement probabilities + Show Spoiler [Group F] + Group F Curious: 82.63% TITAN: 55.76% MajOr: 38.09% herO: 23.52% Detailed placement probabilities + Show Spoiler [Group G] + Group G LucifroN: 88.70% LoWeLy: 73.12% Insur: 30.54% Levin: 7.64% Detailed placement probabilities + Show Spoiler [Group H] + Group H Creator: 74.36% Scarlett: 52.40% Nerchio: 50.57% mOOnGLaDe: 22.67% Detailed placement probabilities The most likely bracket would be: Parting – Scarlett Vortix – Lowely Sen – Titan Rain – (Liquid) Hero Stephano – Babyknight Curious – Huk Lucifron – Suppy Creator – Fenix Parting – Vortix Sen – Rain Stephano – Curious Lucifron – Creator Parting – Rain Stephano – Creator Rain – Creator | ||
|
Trashman420
232 Posts
| ||
|
UnholyRai
720 Posts
TITAN: 55.76% MajOr: 38.09% herO: 23.52% Korean ranked below two non koreans is only major disagreement i have with these probabilities. | ||
|
StarVe
Germany13591 Posts
| ||
|
Huggusten
Sweden50 Posts
| ||
|
Fenix
Peru112 Posts
Fenix broke his hand a while ago and stopped playing for a long time and now has tendinitis, only play 2-3 hours every two days. Follow Fenix : https://www.facebook.com/Fenix.sc2 | ||
|
zergtat
Hong Kong853 Posts
And please Terran players show ome good games and advance! | ||
|
Glurkenspurk
United States1915 Posts
But the sport is called Football. Why be a smug asshole about it? You realize this repetitive joke about American football being hand egg stopped being funny a long time ago, right? | ||
|
StarVe
Germany13591 Posts
Rod Breslau @Slasher In less positive news, just spoke to @MrBitterTV, he has been robbed for over $2,000 from Chinese gangsters on way back from a BWC party. Ben was taken to an unknown location and forced to withdraw money from ATM. He is at hotel now and doing okay, no access to Twitter (China). | ||
|
Azarkon
United States21060 Posts
On November 15 2012 17:18 Hiea wrote: Stephano 0-0 Creator Stephano 8-4 HerO Stephano 0-0 herO Stephano 0-0 Rain Stephano 2-0 PartinG Stephano 2-1 Curious Stephano 0-0 RorO Obviously Stephano has this in the bag. | ||
|
pmp10
3346 Posts
On November 16 2012 03:12 StarVe wrote: So Mr.Bitter got robbed, not a good start. https://twitter.com/Slasher/status/269137275064037376 Ouch. I didn't even know that you can get $2,000 from ATM. Hope he will be ok with casting after that. | ||
|
HolydaKing
21254 Posts
On November 16 2012 01:07 TheBB wrote: + Show Spoiler + Hi everyone! Lately I have gotten a bit of (reasonable) criticism that my probabilities are out of touch with reality. This is because the TLPD rating system has certain deficiencies. For this post, I have employed the SC2Charts system instead, in a sort of experimental run. The problem with this system is that I don't know how it translates into an Elo-like model, and the SC2Charts website doesn't have all the necessary information. Thus, I've had to take some numbers out of thin air. As such, I'd like it very much if you could tell me how these numbers look to you, subjectively. Specifically, are the high probabilities too high and the low ones too low, or should they be more extreme than they are? Personally I feel these numbers reflect reality much better than what I'd get if I were to use the TLPD ratings. + Show Spoiler [Group A] + Group A Parting: 88.21% Fenix: 48.66% Socke: 34.27% Illusion: 28.86% Detailed placement probabilities + Show Spoiler [Group B] + Group B Vortix: 77.53% Suppy: 58.72% CommItment: 34.56% ViBE: 29.20% Detailed placement probabilities + Show Spoiler [Group C] + Group C Sen: 75.73% HuK: 48.98% Grubby: 41.22% dKilleR: 34.06% Detailed placement probabilities + Show Spoiler [Group D] + Group D By.Rain: 93.41% BabyKnight: 60.46% State: 27.54% MaFia: 18.59% Detailed placement probabilities + Show Spoiler [Group E] + Group E Stephano: 72.45% HerO: 60.57% RorO: 45.43% IdrA: 21.55% Detailed placement probabilities + Show Spoiler [Group F] + Group F Curious: 82.63% TITAN: 55.76% MajOr: 38.09% herO: 23.52% Detailed placement probabilities + Show Spoiler [Group G] + Group G LucifroN: 88.70% LoWeLy: 73.12% Insur: 30.54% Levin: 7.64% Detailed placement probabilities + Show Spoiler [Group H] + Group H Creator: 74.36% Scarlett: 52.40% Nerchio: 50.57% mOOnGLaDe: 22.67% Detailed placement probabilities The most likely bracket would be: Parting – Scarlett Vortix – Lowely Sen – Titan Rain – (Liquid) Hero Stephano – Babyknight Curious – Huk Lucifron – Suppy Creator – Fenix Parting – Vortix Sen – Rain Stephano – Curious Lucifron – Creator Parting – Rain Stephano – Creator Rain – Creator they seem A LOT of better. my only complaint is that herO[join] is pretty low, but that's not really something wrong because he hasn't played many games yet. i also like their rating much better than the ELO ranking. so i hope you will stick to it. | ||
|
Grimmac
United Kingdom71 Posts
i know GMT = Greenwich = London but 10 GMT + 8, means that it will be 18h? it will be 10+8 in china? what? | ||
|
Trashman420
232 Posts
On November 16 2012 02:58 Glurkenspurk wrote: But the sport is called Football. Why be a smug asshole about it? You realize this repetitive joke about American football being hand egg stopped being funny a long time ago, right? It's a pretty stale joke, yes. Everytime you forget the "American" in front of your "football" I will keep reminding you, though. No homo. | ||
|
TheBB
Switzerland5133 Posts
On November 16 2012 03:25 Grimmac wrote: can someone explain what the hell 10GMT+8 means ? really... i know GMT = Greenwich = London but 10 GMT + 8, means that it will be 18h? it will be 10+8 in china? what? GMT+8 is the timezone that's 8 hours ahead of GMT. So 10:00 in GMT+8 is 02:00 in GMT. Basically, whenever it's 00:00 in GMT, it's N:00 in GMT+N. | ||
Beyonder
Netherlands15103 Posts
| ||
|
raga4ka
Bulgaria5679 Posts
On November 15 2012 16:18 RPR_Tempest wrote: IMO Rain has shown a bit of weakness in PvZ recently. I think a sufficiently skilled Zerg such as Curious, RorO or even Stephano has a decent shot at taking him out. I thought Stephano had a chance against Rain , but then i saw that it's a Bo5 all the way till the finals which is a Bo7 . Rain trashed DRG in the OSL finals , and with so much money on the line he will come with guns blazing in this tournament . No way a foreigner wins this tournament even with no korean terrans and not the top of the top zergs also . Though Roro and Curious are probably in the top 10 zergs in the world . | ||
|
HolydaKing
21254 Posts
On November 16 2012 03:33 Beyonder wrote: Start at 3 AM, end at 8 AM. Sounds like a wonderful day. That's the time for us? ARGH. :D But i expected something like that, as it's in China. Are the other days just like that? I don't want to miss everything but i'll certainly miss much, not wanting to torture myself. :D | ||
|
!LL
Austria256 Posts
| ||
| ||
