[Up/Down] 2012 GSL Season 3 Group A - Page 3

My views on what will happen in the games tonight!

JYP ASSESSMENT

Against v ZERG. JYP is competent vs zerg, having recently beaten July and Fruitdealer. But most of his wins are against lesser zergs such as Seal and Life. Notably, he has performed against the aggressive zergs, July and Fruitdealer.

Against v TERRAN. JYP has 8-28 record against Terran, and of his last 22 games against Terran, he has lost 20. That’s less than a 10% winrate over the last 22 games against Terran.

Against v PROTOSS. JYP has a strong record against protoss. He has recently beaten Hero, SaSe, HongUn, anypro, Vines and Tester. However, he loses against the best, such as Alicia and Oz (and has lost to Hero in as many games as he’s beat him).

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GHOSTKING ASSESSMENT

Against v ZERG. Ghostking isn’t the best zerg killer. He’s racked up plenty of losses against pretty poor zergs, including Seal, Terious, and Monster, as well as better zergs, like LosirA, Leenock and Zenio.

Against v PROTOSS. Ghostking has recently been crushing the absolute best of toss. Wins include against Choya, PartinG (best PvTer in the world), AcE, Squirtle (GSL finalist) and Oz (former would-be successor to MC as King of Toss).

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JULY ASSESSMENT

Against ZERG. July has a poor record against zerg. I suspect that might be because he plays too aggressive, and that can be exploited by simply getting a spine up early and getting defensive banes. A quick +1 or 1-1 roach timing could kill him off two base.

Against TERRAN. July wins and loses against the best and worse. Wins include against MVP and MKP although he’s lost to top terrans in equal numbers too.

Against PROTOSS. July is pretty solid against protoss with wins against HerO and Genius as of late. Having said that, he also recently lost to JYP.

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NESTEA

Against ZERG. Nestea is ridiculously solid against zerg, with a 28-6 record, and recently with wins over DRG, Idra, LosirA and July. Of course, he loses some, but it’s ZvZ.

Against TERRAN. Nestea has immense experience against Code S terrans and has won and lost against the best. Lately he has faltered and made awfully poor decisions, including in his last games against Keen.

Against PROTOSS. Nestea has a great record against protoss too, with a 24-9 record. He’s beaten InCa, Genuis, Naniwa and HongUn lately, although he’s also lost to MC, Genius, HuK and tails.

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LURE ASSESSMENT

The guy is new, and has hardly any games on record. He’s lost more than he’s won but that’s no surprise, especially seeing as some of the games are against the best. He recently beat InCa twice, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the mirror is his best matchup.

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1. JYP – NESTEA

Although JYP is competent against zerg, he has performed better against cheesy ergs. Against a strong macro zerg, who is resistant to cheese and strong at all stages of the game, and despite Nestea’s slight decline as of late, I favour Nestea.

Prediction: Nestea.
Confidence interval: 75%

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2. JULY – LURE

With Lure the natural underdog, I have to give it to July.

Prediction: July
Confidence interval: 60%

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3. JYP – GHOSTKING

Given JYP’s absolutely abysmal record against T, and GhostKing’s absolutely stunning record against P, GhostKing has this without a doubt.

Prediction: Ghostking.
Confidence interval: 90%

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4. JULY – NESTEA

July has a shot against Nestea but Nestea is just too good, and solid at ZvZ too. I doubt we’ll see hatch openings and I think Nestea will simply outplay July in ling and potentially bling fights, and squeeze a few extra drones for a win. On top of this, in their last encounter, Nestea beat July.

Prediction: Nestea
Confidence interval: 80%

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5. LURE – GHOSTKING

Not only is Lure the natural underdog, but Ghostking is an absolute protoss killer.

Prediction: Ghostking.
Confidence interval: 100%.

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6. JULY – JYP

JYP is competent vs zerg and has recently beaten July. Yet July is also solid against protoss. I marginally give the edge to JYP, with little confidence:

Prediction: JYP
Confidence interval: 25%

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7. LURE – NESTEA

With Lure the natural underdog, I have to give it to Nestea.

Prediction: Nestea
Confidence interval: 80%

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8. JULY – GHOSTKING

Although GhostKing isn’t amazing against zerg, July has been playing odd against terran as of late. Silly mutalisk choices, a refusal to get roaches, and excessive banelings instead of lings have lost him games. GhostKing is likely to win.

Prediction: GhostKing.
Confidence interval: 85%

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9. LURE – JYP

With Lure the natural underdog, I have to give it to JYP, and especially considering JYP’s excellent record against protoss.

Prediction: JYP
Confidence interval: 85%

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10. NESTEA - GHOSTKING

Although both solid players, Nestea is the favourite, particularly because of Ghostking’s weaker record against zergs. There is a chance that Nestea will falter as against Keen, and get killed by hellions. Yet, I think he’ll have smartened up since that debacle.

Prediction: Nestea
Confidence interval: 70%

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Summary by confidence intervals:

1. GK > Lure – 100%
2. GK > JYP – 90%
3. GK > July – 85%
4. JYP > Lure – 85%
5. Nestea > July – 80%
6. Nestea > Lure – 80%
7. Nestea > JYP – 75%
8. Nestea > GK – 70%
9. July > Lure – 60%
10. JYP > July – 25%