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[D]ZvZ: A GSL History of the Blind 15 Hatch - Page 3

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Strategy
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whatthefat
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States918 Posts
September 13 2011 16:55 GMT
#41
This is a great resource, thanks OP! I didn't realize just how much my understanding of ZvZ had been shaped by the GSL until I read through this and remembered my thoughts at the time of each game.
SlayerS_BoxeR: "I always feel sorry towards Greg (Grack?) T_T"
acidfreak
Profile Joined November 2010
Romania352 Posts
September 13 2011 17:17 GMT
#42
My mind is blown from your hard work on this! Incredible research! Thanks!
You can't out-think the swarm, you can't out-maneuver the swarm, and you certainly can't break the morale of the swarm.
Tortious_Tortoise
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States944 Posts
September 13 2011 17:19 GMT
#43
Great OP, examines scientifically the extent to which a blind 15h build is strategically viable and safe at high levels of play. If this is cleaned up a little bit, it could easily be a college statistics essay.
Treating eSports as a social science since 2011; Credo: "The system is never wrong"-- Day9 Daily #400 Part 3
kirdie
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Germany221 Posts
September 13 2011 17:23 GMT
#44
The links of kyrix vs losira don't work. I checked on GomTV and I could not find them either...
TutsiRebel
Profile Joined August 2011
United States172 Posts
September 13 2011 21:10 GMT
#45
awesome post
I can bhop irl
Alejandrisha
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States6565 Posts
September 13 2011 21:32 GMT
#46
you, sir, are a saint.
get rich or die mining
TL+ Member
michaelhasanalias
Profile Joined May 2010
Korea (South)1231 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-09-13 23:21:47
September 13 2011 23:21 GMT
#47
On September 14 2011 02:23 kirdie wrote:
The links of kyrix vs losira don't work. I checked on GomTV and I could not find them either...


They require the gomtv season pass because only the first game of each match is free (I think they are games 3 and 5 in the group). There are china links floating around that are rebroadcasts in chinese where you could probably watch them. I think it's probably frowned upon by GOM but I don't think they have the copyright abilities over China.


On September 13 2011 21:31 barrykp wrote:
Great stuff; I admire the effort you clearly put into it.

Can't say it makes choosing an opening any easier though

Seems like 14/14 is still the jack of all trades, but I always feel pressured when my first lings arrive and see my opponent has gone hatch first.

Anyway I love the thread; I'll definitely be rereading it and watching some of the games in the future, to help with my own ZvZ.


You know, I feel the same way. Including the game I forgot about but just added last night (Dimaga v NesTea KORvWORLD game on Terminus) that makes two games in total where there was a drone scout before hatch first, and in both cases it didn't really make a difference (neither scouted the other player before the hatch went down).

Further, the win rate of hatch first vs 14/14 is something close to 100%, with the only game a 14/14 won being NesTea when he played July, and it was dead even until July gave all his ultras away.

However, I think the more interesting story there is that the players we would generally consider superior in skill tend to more often open 15 hatch, whereas the cheesier guys who are in code A and B tend to always 14/14. So the better players are already 15 hatching, but the high win rate may well be because 15 hatch is indeed the superior (or at least equal?) opening.

I know I've always preferred 15 hatch when I can get away with it, but especially on ladder and with so many players opting for 9 or 11 pools or just early pools in general, it's difficult to justify opening 15 hatch at least for ladder practice.
KR NsPMichael.805 | AM Michael.2640 | SEA Michael.523 | 엔에스피 New Star Players
michaelhasanalias
Profile Joined May 2010
Korea (South)1231 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-09-14 01:17:03
September 14 2011 01:11 GMT
#48
On September 13 2011 16:04 Lobotomist wrote:
Is there a liquipedia build for 10 pool baneling? Someone care to summarize?


I added a liquipedia page for the build as Check executed it in both games featured in the OP:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/10_Pool_Baneling_(vs._Zerg)
KR NsPMichael.805 | AM Michael.2640 | SEA Michael.523 | 엔에스피 New Star Players
Yoshi Kirishima
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States10366 Posts
September 14 2011 03:05 GMT
#49
Holy shit man, you are so awesome, thank you for such an awesome contribution to the community.

So organized, informational, descriptive, everything. Great stuff!
Mid-master streaming MECH ONLY + commentary www.twitch.tv/yoshikirishima +++ "If all-in fails, all-in again."
The.Doctor
Profile Joined February 2010
Canada333 Posts
September 14 2011 04:35 GMT
#50
Damn good post. TL needs more of this.
The Boss.
michaelhasanalias
Profile Joined May 2010
Korea (South)1231 Posts
September 14 2011 05:37 GMT
#51
added a game I had forgotten before, as well as a non-15h game in dimaga v july that I felt deserved inclusion because dimaga intended to 15h but scouting changed his mind:

KORvWORLD FXOmOOnGLade vs STJuly - Metalopolis - link
July opens blind 15 hatch 14 pool in cross positions against mOONglade's 14/14 bling pressure. July drops a fast warren but has a late gas and so is barely able to defend in time with roaches and zerglings. From here the game transitions into a typical July game (re: slugfest).

KORvWORLD mTwDimaga vs STJuly - Shakuras Plateau - link
This game is special among all of these I mention because it actually doesn't feature a blind 15 hatchery. I include it because in re-watching it I noticed something very important--Dimaga actually intended to open 15 hatchery, but he drone scouted on 9 supply and saw July's 10 pool. He then responds by canceling his 14th drone, and going 13 pool 12 gas. I firmly believe Dimaga would have been hard-pressed to survive against July's 10 pool pressure had he not drone scouted and responded accordingly.
KR NsPMichael.805 | AM Michael.2640 | SEA Michael.523 | 엔에스피 New Star Players
flcHoOt
Profile Joined September 2011
United States15 Posts
September 14 2011 05:42 GMT
#52
This post is very amazing. Very very brilliant and I can't thank you enough for your in depth analysis of this match up. Wonderful, Well Organized, To the Point, Looks clean, Nice Pics, Nice Links, Credibility. This post has everything.
Fear is The Mind Killer
Oboeman
Profile Joined January 2011
Canada3980 Posts
September 14 2011 06:27 GMT
#53
great post.

Is nestea vs losira the only example of 10p/12ov against 14/14?
michaelhasanalias
Profile Joined May 2010
Korea (South)1231 Posts
September 14 2011 06:42 GMT
#54
On September 14 2011 15:27 Oboeman wrote:
great post.

Is nestea vs losira the only example of 10p/12ov against 14/14?


Yeah the only other game that didn't immediately end against this build was Cezanne's canceled 15 hatch into 15 pool, and he was pretty far behind the entire game in my opinion.
KR NsPMichael.805 | AM Michael.2640 | SEA Michael.523 | 엔에스피 New Star Players
Ghoststrikes
Profile Joined February 2011
Canada1356 Posts
September 14 2011 06:50 GMT
#55
Great read, and nice work on that!

This is a really good reflection on the State of ZvZ openers!
Never say die
Oboeman
Profile Joined January 2011
Canada3980 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-09-14 07:38:49
September 14 2011 07:33 GMT
#56
On September 14 2011 15:42 michaelhasanalias wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2011 15:27 Oboeman wrote:
great post.

Is nestea vs losira the only example of 10p/12ov against 14/14?


Yeah the only other game that didn't immediately end against this build was Cezanne's canceled 15 hatch into 15 pool, and he was pretty far behind the entire game in my opinion.


ok I had a vague memory so I checked the MLG Raleigh vods, and although this isn't GSL, they're code S zergs.

Coca went 10p/12 ov against DRG on testbug in game 1. and DRG went 14/14 speedling expand. Coca backs out and makes roaches before expanding (because his ling speed was miles behind), but DRG has a pretty solid lead and outright kills him with a roach ling timing.

also for what it's worth in game 3, Coca goes 14/14 against DRG's blind 15 hatch, and coca uses 6 speedlings to be annoying and somehow end up with a solid lead... not sure how that happened.
michaelhasanalias
Profile Joined May 2010
Korea (South)1231 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-09-14 10:47:19
September 14 2011 09:57 GMT
#57
I had a chat with dongraegu about drone scouting in 15 hatch and he said this:

+ Show Spoiler +


나의 메시지: why are you terran now??
dongraegu is zerg!!
동래구프로에쓰: Terran so IMBA in Ladder
나의 메시지: hahahaha
동래구프로에쓰: dont worry
Ill play zerg forever
나의 메시지: what about 1.4??
no neural parasite
on big units
동래구프로에쓰: maybe DK has no brain
나의 메시지: what is DK?
동래구프로에쓰: David Kim
나의 메시지: hahahaha
can I post this to reddit
its so funny
reddit people really love you
동래구프로에쓰:
tell me about that links
나의 메시지: 잠깐만요
http://www.reddit.com/r/starcraft/comments/kf7fg/dongraegus_thoughts_on_proposed_14_neural/
this is so funny
you can say hi on reddit!~
they will ask you many questions too... you are the favorite zerg I think
동래구프로에쓰:
pleasure
나의 메시지: mm I wrote this yesterday maybe you will like it: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=264988
It's a history of 15 hatch open in ZvZ GSL games
I think your english is very good maybe you can understand
동래구프로에쓰: yeah Maybe I can understand
but
very tired to long long english sentence
나의 메시지: umm
동래구프로에쓰: read!
나의 메시지: I can summarize
NesTea is 6-0 in ZvZ when he plays against 15 hatch and he does NOT 15 hatch
동래구프로에쓰: oh
나의 메시지: but everyone else win every game 15 hatch vs 14/14
because NesTea soemtimes he does 10 pool 12 overlord
and he is 4-0
and 2-0 doing fast gold 15 hatch
동래구프로에쓰: conclusion is NesTea IMBA in ZvZ?
나의 메시지: nono
conclusion is 15 hatch risky in zvz!
동래구프로에쓰: aha!
나의 메시지: but i don't know maybe it's still best
every game nestea has lost in zvz has been to code B player
동래구프로에쓰: I think best build if opponent doesnt use fast pool
나의 메시지: i think so too
BUT
I don't understand why no drone scout??
동래구프로에쓰: well..
나의 메시지: there is ONE game in GSL history where there is drone scout for hatchery first
동래구프로에쓰: It doesnt necessary
나의 메시지: and dimaga v july in world championiship, and he would have lost to 10 pool but he won because he didn't make hatch
동래구프로에쓰: if do drone scout
then opponent know that I did first hatch

나의 메시지: (do you want me to correct your english? im an english teacher in korea its my job ^ ^)
hmm
동래구프로에쓰: yeah sure
thx
나의 메시지: ///it isn't necessary///
동래구프로에쓰: aha!
나의 메시지: hmmmm
so you don't drone scout because they know you 15 hatch?
동래구프로에쓰: yeah and
if opponent did first hatch too then
so badly start

나의 메시지: hmmmm
but only very small disadvantage
동래구프로에쓰: one drone mining is so difficult
나의 메시지: one sec
I made a program
it tells you how much minerals you lose from scout
동래구프로에쓰: ok
나의 메시지: if you send drone scout to check opponent main and come back after 2 minutes, it's 86 minerals
for 3 minutes it's 122 minerals
if you scout 2 bases
동래구프로에쓰: yeah yeah
나의 메시지: trade 80 minerals for win vs 10 pool all-in??
only 80 minerals, 1 good baneling and you're even
동래구프로에쓰: scouting
how many drones
나의 메시지: hmm?
동래구프로에쓰: 10 drone scouting?
나의 메시지: when to drone scout?
동래구프로에쓰: yeah right
나의 메시지: after 9 overlord start
9th drone hatch and scout
동래구프로에쓰: 9 drone scout is too poor
Neve win to 15hatch first opponent

나의 메시지: ooooh
BUT
if you scout 15 hatchery
your time is maybe only 80 seconds
동래구프로에쓰: what mean
나의 메시지: and then ~50-60 minerals only
동래구프로에쓰: my time?
나의 메시지: yes because
you scout
you can BLOCK the hatchery
or you can see hatchery
동래구프로에쓰: ah
나의 메시지: and you can come back fast
you dont need to see main base if you see hatchery
so very fast
동래구프로에쓰: hmm
ㅈㄷ
ok
then I practice when my team practice time

now I gonna packing
동래구프로에쓰: prepaare to go spain
oh
나의 메시지: spain??
wow why
동래구프로에쓰: yeah
dreamhack
나의 메시지: oh yeah
you will win!
동래구프로에쓰: sure
나의 메시지: hahaha
thank you for chatting, good luck at dreamhack!
동래구프로에쓰: thx
나의 메시지: 다음에 봐요!
동래구프로에쓰: see ya!
동래구프로에쓰 님의 연결이 끊겼습니다.


I never really thought about how drone scouting generally reveals that you are 15 hatching..... it's not just the greed factor (at least according to him)
KR NsPMichael.805 | AM Michael.2640 | SEA Michael.523 | 엔에스피 New Star Players
sQueez
Profile Joined March 2011
12 Posts
September 14 2011 11:20 GMT
#58
This is pretty awesome. Thank you a lot for putting this together!
Superpower
Profile Joined April 2011
Australia212 Posts
September 14 2011 11:52 GMT
#59
THANK YOU SOOO much links to heaps of zvzs ty !!!! Give this guy a clap!!!*claps*
Taeja <3
CrueltY
Profile Joined March 2011
Guernsey37 Posts
September 14 2011 16:39 GMT
#60
Excellent post. I have been trying to do a similar thing by analysing Nestea's zvz from the GSL, and you've ended up doing a way more impressive job then I did.

My one thought would be how map dependent these matches were. For example, Nestea did his 10 pool DET on Dual Site and Xel'Naga Fortress in the GSL finals against Losira, and I wonder how much the easier scouting of his opponent played into that. I'm trying to look at this to understand what maps it would be more reasonable for me to take the risk of 15 hatching.
All warfare is based on deception - Sun Tzu
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