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+ Show Spoiler +On February 02 2011 05:12 Musoeun wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 03:15 hacklebeast wrote:
bisu: 15-4 losses to #1 player (in elo) and #1 protoss (other than himself in elo)
stork 16-8 losses to #6, #7 #21 and # 35 (in elo)... Here, let's over-analyze further:  Bisu: 15-4 (0-3 MSL, 15-1 WL) Stork: 16-8 (4-4 OSL, 2-3 MSL, 10-1 WL) Head to head: Bisu 0-4 StorkOne Common Opponent:  ZerO ( Bisu 1-0, Stork 0-3) And for the hell of it, opponents vs P ELO (note: I'm using current ELO so results will be a little skewed): Bisu By.Baby (#29, 2068), Bogus (#10, 2121), Brave (#20, 2091), Calm (#5, 2168), firebathero (#50, 2024), Flash (#1, 2321), ggaemo (#55, 2021), hero (#40, 2045), Iris (#22, 2085), JangBi (#21, 2088), Kal (#14, 2107), M18M (#34, 2056), Pure (#18, 2096), RorO (#13, 2110), Shine (#32, 2067), Stork x3 (#17, 2100), ZerO (#6, 2168) Average ranking: 22.16 Average rating: 2102 (=#16) StorkAlone (#62, 1997), Bisu x3 (#4, 2185), Fantasy x4 (#3, 2200), HiyA x2 (#16, 2102), Horang2 (#8, 2137), Hydra (#9, 2129), HyuN (#49, 2026), Jaedong (#2, 2254), Jaehoon (#78, 1980), Killer (#58, 2016), Modesty x3 (#85, 1969), Sea (#7, 2156), Tyson (#31, 2067), ZerO (#6, 2168) x3 Average ranking: 26.38 Average rating: 2113.83 (#12 > x > #13) aaaaand the result is inconclusive. Rank or rating? You decide. More fun: Bisu's vs rank: #4 (2185) vs P, #7 (2178) vs T, #3 (2276) vs Z. Comparing ranks/ratings, Bisu would have been expected to lose 1 game against the opponents he faced (Flash, loss) but lost 4 (3 losses to Stork). 3 unpredicted losses. Stork's vs rank: #17 (2100) vs P, #3 (2210) vs T, #5 (2186) vs Z. Comparing ranks/ratings, Stork would have been expected to lose 9 games against the opponents he faced* (Jaedong, win; fantasy, 1-3; Bisu, 3-0; Horang2, loss), but lost 8 (ZerO, 0-3, HiyA 1-1). 5 unpredicted wins, 4 unpredicted losses. And I still have no idea. BUT - numbers! * Not sure how to deal with fantasy here. His rating's clearly a little higher than it was due to the 3-0, but with a loss to Horang2 deflating it I'm not sure how much higher, so I'm avoiding speculation and just running with the numbers I've got.
^ That illustrates it perfectly. When it's so damn close, why not give it to the player who beat the other guy 3 times?
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On February 02 2011 05:37 Crisium wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On February 02 2011 05:12 Musoeun wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 03:15 hacklebeast wrote:
bisu: 15-4 losses to #1 player (in elo) and #1 protoss (other than himself in elo)
stork 16-8 losses to #6, #7 #21 and # 35 (in elo)... Here, let's over-analyze further: Bisu: 15-4 (0-3 MSL, 15-1 WL) Stork: 16-8 (4-4 OSL, 2-3 MSL, 10-1 WL) Head to head: Bisu 0-4 StorkOne Common Opponent: ZerO ( Bisu 1-0, Stork 0-3) And for the hell of it, opponents vs P ELO (note: I'm using current ELO so results will be a little skewed): BisuBy.Baby (#29, 2068), Bogus (#10, 2121), Brave (#20, 2091), Calm (#5, 2168), firebathero (#50, 2024), Flash (#1, 2321), ggaemo (#55, 2021), hero (#40, 2045), Iris (#22, 2085), JangBi (#21, 2088), Kal (#14, 2107), M18M (#34, 2056), Pure (#18, 2096), RorO (#13, 2110), Shine (#32, 2067), Stork x3 (#17, 2100), ZerO (#6, 2168) Average ranking: 22.16 Average rating: 2102 (=#16) StorkAlone (#62, 1997), Bisu x3 (#4, 2185), Fantasy x4 (#3, 2200), HiyA x2 (#16, 2102), Horang2 (#8, 2137), Hydra (#9, 2129), HyuN (#49, 2026), Jaedong (#2, 2254), Jaehoon (#78, 1980), Killer (#58, 2016), Modesty x3 (#85, 1969), Sea (#7, 2156), Tyson (#31, 2067), ZerO (#6, 2168) x3 Average ranking: 26.38 Average rating: 2113.83 (#12 > x > #13) aaaaand the result is inconclusive. Rank or rating? You decide. More fun: Bisu's vs rank: #4 (2185) vs P, #7 (2178) vs T, #3 (2276) vs Z. Comparing ranks/ratings, Bisu would have been expected to lose 1 game against the opponents he faced (Flash, loss) but lost 4 (3 losses to Stork). 3 unpredicted losses. Stork's vs rank: #17 (2100) vs P, #3 (2210) vs T, #5 (2186) vs Z. Comparing ranks/ratings, Stork would have been expected to lose 9 games against the opponents he faced* (Jaedong, win; fantasy, 1-3; Bisu, 3-0; Horang2, loss), but lost 8 (ZerO, 0-3, HiyA 1-1). 5 unpredicted wins, 4 unpredicted losses. And I still have no idea. BUT - numbers! * Not sure how to deal with fantasy here. His rating's clearly a little higher than it was due to the 3-0, but with a loss to Horang2 deflating it I'm not sure how much higher, so I'm avoiding speculation and just running with the numbers I've got. ^ That illustrates it perfectly. When it's so damn close, why not give it to the player who beat the other guy 3 times?
I absolutely agree, like in football (soccer in US) qualifiers.
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On February 02 2011 03:43 SkelA wrote:
You are wrong in most of your opinions.
That's a pretty bold statement. I hope you were at least limiting that to just this thread -_-
I would like to argue that going 0-3 vs stork is rather similar to going 0-3 vs fantasy, as they are both fantastic players. If you could take that much of a step, than it is pretty obvious that bisu's 15-1, only losing to the best player in the world is better than storks 16-5. But I'm guessing that you will say that they are in no way similar because fantasy only won through vudu or something equally ridiculous. If you can see this logic, cool. If not, that's fine, just move on.
I started to type something about quality of opponents, but then noticed that there was someone above me who did a very nice job with it already  + Show Spoiler +(just one comment though, i don't think I like the use of "expected to win" as a meter stick (you may have not even ment it to be so, but because you quoted me directly, I am forced to assume so). Don't get me wrong, it is interesting, and probably would be something I would look at for other players if I did not have multiple midterms this week, but with that thought process, we could find some one like flying who "over preformed" a lot, but doesn't belong on the PR)
I will admit, at first I thought stork was a clear #5, and after hearing other people, its is evident to me that it is a lot closer than I had thought. And I think it is a contest no mater what order you put your players in (although some are harder to argue than others)
And as a note about storks "personal problems," I like to think that progamers are adults, and more professional than to completely crumble like that. But even if they are not, extraneous factor are part of his play ability. Effort was on the PR when he retired, we shouldn't keep him there because of what might have happened if circumstantial details were different.
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On February 02 2011 04:58 Inzek wrote:
i just cant feel scared with fantasy.
\
And thats a horrible error. While Flash is type of calculated bastard that you know exacly what you can expect, fantasy is type of raging psychopath you acctually dont know he will shot his own foot or blow up your head.
Thats a reason he is infact underestimated, not overrated... More post I read here, it's getting more and more self evident.
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Putting Flash as #1 makes one think that you don't value leagues that high -- but you still have Fanta as #2. That's inconsistent in a way - but it is also quite fare imo. Really good rank imo, even though I probably wouldn't rank top 5 the same way. Well written.
Looking forward to the two terrans in top dropping next month to be replaced by Jaedong and Hydra. 
When I think about it, I wouldn't have Flash as #1 --- I think Stork should have held the spot for Jaedong this month, despite everything. Ah well, guess I'm the only one to think that.
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personally i'd go with flash #1, stork #2 and bisu #3 with jaedong on 4 and fanta on 5.
Merely for his extremely lackluster performance in winner's league and having his only feat of strength be to win a finals of a starleague over stork (and let's face it, it's not as if that is a difficult thing to do, what with stork being a permanent resident of the kkong line).
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hydra is seriously doing well lately. 19-2 zvz since he started playing well.
HvZ incoming? :I
if you don't like zvz, atleast we get a gooood zvz in hydra vs jaedong.
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On February 02 2011 06:23 StylishVODs wrote:
hydra is seriously doing well lately. 19-2 zvz since he started playing well.
HvZ incoming? :I
if you don't like zvz, atleast we get a gooood zvz in hydra vs jaedong.
Yeah... seriously. That series will probably be a lot of luck and BO's though - because can you play more efficient in ZvZ than Jaedong (17-3) and Hydra (18-2) have recently? I guess there is always a chance that Hydra will choke since he is quite new.
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Does anybody know when the MSL semi finals starts?
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Feb. 10 and 12, according to the calendar (18:00 and 17:00 KST), I think. ZerO vs great, then Jaedong vs Hydra.
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well done sir, agree with all of your rankings.
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Flash #1 doesn't make sense to me. Bonking out of the two solo leagues is the most important thing, WL is something, but whatever at the same time. You brought up other people's rediculous WL record (Stork 10-1) yet he's #3 and was a finalist in OSL. Ironic.
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Flamewheel your Shoutouts SUCK. Where the hell is MANTOSS?!
Actually they're good, but I need to see Mantoss make it up there. He won a game against Snow... which leaves me to question: Can *I* Beat Snow? Hell no. ^^
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I won't argue that Flash at #1 is wrong (I've already said I'm fine with it) but all let's admit one thing: it is in large part due to his accomplishments in 2010. If you ignore his domination last year and just look at records this year he would be placed #4-5 along with Bisu. Placing him at #1 more or less requires assuming that he would maintain a close to 90% winrate even if he had to play 2x as many games this month. Now if anyone could do that it'd be Flash but it is not a given, mostly because of his wrist problems. He is playing well but we can't know how a much heavier schedule would affect him given his condition. Since he hasn't shown any weakness I'm fine with giving him the benefit of the doubt but let's not pretend that he's a clear number 1.
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Goragoth I'm pretty sure everyone is aware that Flash is number one thanks alot to the benifit of the doubt he recieves after being the best BW player for a year straight. He's had much more consistent results than Stork, Bisu and Fantasy. Only JD really comes close in that regard..
I really don't see the problem extending the benifit of the doubt to the best player. Really who would pick Bisu over Flash in a best of? Sometimes you need to look at the hypotheticals and I'm sure next MSL/OSL Flash has another great shot at double titles, something I can't say for anyone else really. :/.
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Russian Federation327 Posts
Bonking out of the two solo leagues is the most important thing
Lol, it was moths ago. PR rating created on per month basis or do you imply only ppl in star-league allowed in PR? Stop making holy cow from OSL & MSL leagues. It is just yet another competition where you can show off your skills nothing more.
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I just read all of the power rank to the bottom and it seems like Jaedong has been at the top five since november 2007. That is over 3 years of being practically an S class player.
The Dong is the man.
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Russian Federation327 Posts
let's not pretend that he's a clear number 1
Why not?
Stork: can't play BoX
Bisu: can't play vs S-class
Fanta: can't play without preparation
So, #1 is Flash or JD. JD was a bit shaky in ZvP, while Flash showed some great games, so I dont see problem here.
JD will take over MSL and will be placed at 1 spot.
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I think the ranking looks fine, pretty similar to what I would have done. And if you'd ask 100 people to rank the top5 right now, you would probably get 100 different rankings.
I am also quite relieved that you don't have 15 CBNC and 23 Shoutouts this month, I thought last month was pretty ridiculous.
However, I am not happy with your defensive style of writing. Every second sentence is some kind of defence whiy you did what you did. There really is no need to, I believe that is not the right way to present the PR.
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I agree with Malinor above, there's no need to defend yourself so much. Everyone understands this was a tough choice, so just explain your reasoning and leave it at that The people who will bite your head off, i.e. the people you're defending yourself against, will bite your head off whether you apologize or not!
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EPT
