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On January 24 2011 23:47 Demand2k wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 23:38 POWEROUTAGE wrote:
Disregarding the placement of TaekLeessang, I've to say that I'm ecstatic that we're likely to see Stats and Violet on the PR. I really love them both, glad to see that their play has picked up and now we're no longer that much of a 1-man team. I wish, but that's been said ever since round 1 of last year's proleague -_- Time and time again KT turns into a 1-man team since no one else players consistently well, which makes it such a frustrating team to follow whenever Flash can't be a winner's league one man army.
Seriously, what is this non-sense? People spit this bullshit all over the LR-threads too. Your team WON the last season of PL and dominated the shit out of that year. You don't achieve that by just throwing Flash at the other team, ask Jaedong about that. A one man team is the KT of 08/09 or the Oz of 09/10. KT has had two horrible rounds, yeah but shit happens. KT has had the best year in teams-history and so many people are crying, I don't get that at all.
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On January 24 2011 11:54 Xiphos wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 11:19 L0thar wrote:On January 24 2011 03:54 disciple wrote:On January 24 2011 03:36 Holgerius wrote:On January 23 2011 13:12 disciple wrote:
No other player in the history of BW took so much credit only for his potential. Alright, I'm not gonna argue with you. I'm gonna assume you are trolling, because this is the most ridiculous statement I've ever heard. well Im speaking about the period after his first OSL title, when was constantly losing in the group stages of MSL and got kicked out from OSL by some GGplay Luxury etc. I still remember how ppl kept arguing that he was the best terran in the world even when fantasy or even leta (not to mention forgg at some point) were clearly outperforming him for like 6 months. Im not trolling at all - even with only one OSL under his belt, ppl hailed flash as the best and most talented player ever. Artosis kind of sparked the whole thing. Now, 2 years after, it all makes perfect sense. But in the beginning of his career Flash got massive credit because of his talent and potential. So even when he is playing bad , which is not the case atm, or another guy is performing better than him, ppl still think he is the best, because he is Flash you know huh Why on earth would you bring this now when Flash actually proved that he is indeed the best and most talented player ever? Those people were spot on. The thing was that he didn't really prove much back in the days.
But why bring it now, more than year after that period, in the PR thread? That doesn't make any sense. If something, it shows that Flash deserves the trust, the "credit for his potential" if you wish, because he already proved he could fulfill it (unlike Kal for example). And I'm sure that isn't the thing disciple wanted to say by that lol.
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On January 25 2011 00:11 Lightwip wrote:
Flash DOES get the benefit of the doubt despite the claim that he doesn't.
Fair enough! I agree with you on that.
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People keep citing the win over sKyHigh as a point in Flash's favor, but I'm starting to wonder. sKyHigh's on a 3-game TvT loss streak, tied for his 2nd longest ever. The first time he lost 3 in a row was at the very beginning over his career - to Sea, Sheis, and dropping a game to Freedom (who?) in an OSC match he won 2-1. The only other time he's lost more than two in a row was last season: to Mind, Ruby, Sea, and firebathero. I get that. Mind plays like that sometimes, Ruby was on fire, Sea is good, and fbh is an amazing TvTer himself. Both of those are really rough draws.
But what is Mister TvT doing with a losing streak against: Bogus, hOn_sin, Flash? It's that second one that really worries me. hOn_sin's easily the worst Terran he's ever lost to. Now, I'm not claiming sKyHigh's "lost it", not really. But he doesn't seem to be playing as well as he used to.
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On January 25 2011 00:44 Musoeun wrote:
People keep citing the win over sKyHigh as a point in Flash's favor, but I'm starting to wonder. sKyHigh's on a 3-game TvT loss streak, tied for his 2nd longest ever. The first time he lost 3 in a row was at the very beginning over his career - to Sea, Sheis, and dropping a game to Freedom (who?) in an OSC match he won 2-1. The only other time he's lost more than two in a row was last season: to Mind, Ruby, Sea, and firebathero. I get that. Mind plays like that sometimes, Ruby was on fire, Sea is good, and fbh is an amazing TvTer himself. Both of those are really rough draws.
But what is Mister TvT doing with a losing streak against: Bogus, hOn_sin, Flash? It's that second one that really worries me. hOn_sin's easily the worst Terran he's ever lost to. Now, I'm not claiming sKyHigh's "lost it", not really. But he doesn't seem to be playing as well as he used to.
He didn't lose to hOn_sin in a macro game. He lost because hOn_sin spawned ahead in the clock and took advantage of it with an early starport to drop on his nat. He couldn't reclaim his nat because of the highground advantage over the nat. Perhaps it was a mistake for him not to rush an early Starport build as well, but that aside there wasn't too much he could do afterwards.
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But if you're going to argue that Flash's past results are to be accounted for in the PR, in such a way that they keep him in a high spot, even though the results of leagues in the month arent kind to him, then you must concede that the consideration of his past accomplishments can work against him too.
We have here Bisu and Stork, two protoss players that have spearheaded, historically, the race, and who had fallen into a slump which brought into question their ability to keep up with the pack. Their current level of play is that much more impressive and important considering that their results in the previous months was dismal. The level of hotness for both of them, which the PR ranks, is very much higher because they improved drastically. The aura that surrounds of them may not be that of invencibility that Flash carried around last year, actually, it most certainly isnt that, its the aura of resurgence, and of hope too, and i think that this is of much importance for the Power Rank.
Then you have Flash who is coming out of double golds and a PL championship. Relatively to his own accomplishments he is not as hot. His play has shown weaknesses, when we have been used to a player who showed none (well, dont take this literally). His momentum has decreased because of the ridiculously high momentum he had last year. Yes, maybe even with this lower-than-we-are-used-to momentum its still enough to topple what Stork and Bisu have going for them, were one to deconstruct their play and make an analytical judgment of ther mechanics and strategy. But it just doesnt feel like it. If you dont go through that intelectual hurdle Stork and Bisu feel hotter and, its my opinion, the power rank should reflect that.
This doesnt mean i think Stork, and less so Bisu, could win against him in a boX. The thing is that dropping out of those leagues is that much more impressive considering the condition he was in. Maybe you dont feel it, but when watching Flash i dont have the feeling of absolute certainty he is going to win, as i had last season. In terms of hotness, its his own acomplishments that undo Flash, and ironically, that do Bisu and Stork, considering they were slumping hard, into the PR.
Now if this is valid for Flash, then so much more for Jaedong. His play has been erratic, relative to the play he had exhibited during last year. This doesnt mean Jaedong, even when erratic, is a huge favorite and one of the most skilled progamers in BW. But simply, he isnt as hot right now, maybe because of the results we attribute to him.
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On January 24 2011 23:44 mustaju wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 23:33 Holgerius wrote:On January 24 2011 23:29 mustaju wrote:On January 24 2011 23:25 ShadeR wrote:On January 24 2011 23:18 Lightwip wrote:On January 24 2011 23:12 POWEROUTAGE wrote:On January 24 2011 23:05 Lightwip wrote:
Yeah, he would rank pretty high, but probably under Jaedong right now because JD has a league on him. I doubt he would be considered for #2/3 if he didn't have those past achievements. I'm sorry if I sound condescending but you can't be serious. Jaedong's play has been terrible so far. Losing to violet in that manner, shaky play against woongjin, losing to stork... I think I've made my point. If anything, JD should drop in the PR. And if singlehandedly destroying SKT and the team that has all 3 of the other best players most well-equipped to take down Flash isn't enough for you to "consider" then you'll probably never accept that Flash is the better player even when he is. Oh no, I agree completely. JD has been having an awful month. But if only JD had the success in the previous months then he would be given more benefit of the doubt than Flash.. What if we consider that Jaedong is the strongest contender for the MSL championship? Flamewheel is fucked. You can't be serious. In his current form, he'll never get past Hydra. Dude, it's JD. I wouldn't use the word never if I were you. His name is Jaedong, but he currently plays like shit. That's how I'll choose to rate him.
You must be a serious anti-fan or you just don't understand the game to express yourself like that. No one is claiming that Jaedong has not been looking inconsistent lately, but he still played one of the best zvts in his career vs Baby just a couple of weeks ago. Stomped Midas (65% tvz) three times in a row and has a 70% win rate over-all this season.
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On January 25 2011 00:44 Musoeun wrote:
People keep citing the win over sKyHigh as a point in Flash's favor, but I'm starting to wonder. sKyHigh's on a 3-game TvT loss streak, tied for his 2nd longest ever. The first time he lost 3 in a row was at the very beginning over his career - to Sea, Sheis, and dropping a game to Freedom (who?) in an OSC match he won 2-1. The only other time he's lost more than two in a row was last season: to Mind, Ruby, Sea, and firebathero. I get that. Mind plays like that sometimes, Ruby was on fire, Sea is good, and fbh is an amazing TvTer himself. Both of those are really rough draws.
But what is Mister TvT doing with a losing streak against: Bogus, hOn_sin, Flash? It's that second one that really worries me. hOn_sin's easily the worst Terran he's ever lost to. Now, I'm not claiming sKyHigh's "lost it", not really. But he doesn't seem to be playing as well as he used to.
It's a valid point, however Skyhigh has been a good TvT player for a really long time and I don't think we can judge it any different based on 3 recent games. I definately think Skyhigh is still one of the better TvT players alongside with Flash and Fantasy.
Starcraft is a complex game and you really need a bigger samplesize before jumping to conclusions. Anyone can lose a Bo1 on a bad day, it's when it repeats itself over time that we can truely say that there is a change in skill or performance imo.
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Estonia4504 Posts
On January 25 2011 02:39 Elroi wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 23:44 mustaju wrote:On January 24 2011 23:33 Holgerius wrote:On January 24 2011 23:29 mustaju wrote:On January 24 2011 23:25 ShadeR wrote:On January 24 2011 23:18 Lightwip wrote:On January 24 2011 23:12 POWEROUTAGE wrote:On January 24 2011 23:05 Lightwip wrote:
Yeah, he would rank pretty high, but probably under Jaedong right now because JD has a league on him. I doubt he would be considered for #2/3 if he didn't have those past achievements. I'm sorry if I sound condescending but you can't be serious. Jaedong's play has been terrible so far. Losing to violet in that manner, shaky play against woongjin, losing to stork... I think I've made my point. If anything, JD should drop in the PR. And if singlehandedly destroying SKT and the team that has all 3 of the other best players most well-equipped to take down Flash isn't enough for you to "consider" then you'll probably never accept that Flash is the better player even when he is. Oh no, I agree completely. JD has been having an awful month. But if only JD had the success in the previous months then he would be given more benefit of the doubt than Flash.. What if we consider that Jaedong is the strongest contender for the MSL championship? Flamewheel is fucked. You can't be serious. In his current form, he'll never get past Hydra. Dude, it's JD. I wouldn't use the word never if I were you. His name is Jaedong, but he currently plays like shit. That's how I'll choose to rate him. You must be a serious anti-fan or you just don't understand the game to express yourself like that. No one is claiming that Jaedong has not been looking inconsistent lately, but he still played one of the best zvts in his career vs Baby just a couple of weeks ago. Stomped Midas (65% tvz) three times in a row and has a 70% win rate over-all this season.
Far from it. I consider myself his fan, it's just that my expectations are very high for him. The game vs. Baby disregarded, he has shown numerable weaknesses in his play and the losses he recently had make me believe that there won't be a Zerg with the "unbeatable" feeling for the next months. While it is true that "shit" might have been over exaggerated, and I almost immediately regretted such a choice of words, his play should be compared to how he used to win before this season, and we can see a definite change.
Believe me, I don't want to see a new TaekBangLee era, but I'm afraid that's what we're headed for.
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Zero has nothing up in his sleeve, Bisu could go one hand,
Stork will get dual golds this time and enter god line in half year,
he have the very same grip vZ now that he always had vT.
Loosing to HorangZWEI by any P won't ever surprise me.
Flash and Bisu both have over 90% wins in proleague,
in which universe is any of these things a bad thing? O_o
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"too many zergs left" when zvp is the most imbalanced matchup in the game until his style, which I saw reach do first anyways.
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I cannot stress this enough... I wish Bisu was still in the MSL. Tearing Zergs up left and right. His vZ elo would surpass Jaedong's (peak).
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On January 25 2011 07:06 DracoVolantus wrote:
Zero has nothing up in his sleeve, Bisu could go one hand,
Stork will get dual golds this time and enter god line in half year,
he have the very same grip vZ now that he always had vT.
Loosing to HorangZWEI by any P won't ever surprise me.
Flash and Bisu both have over 90% wins in proleague,
in which universe is any of these things a bad thing? O_o
Tbh his loss to Horang "mr strategic play" 2 doesn't mean much. It says more that he convincingly beat Hydra imo.
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FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
On January 24 2011 23:27 Holgerius wrote:
Ya, as I said; this is gonna be a very hard PR to make.
Even tougher if Fantasy wins OSL ~_~
One week of Proleague, MSL Quarterfinals and OSL Finals to go.
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@StylishVODs -- I don't see how you fail to see that such a ranking would be contentious and produce even more fanboy babble. I don't think my words will get through to you so I won't waste any more time on this. Maybe you never had a discussion with tfeign before? :/
On January 24 2011 13:53 SimonB wrote:
Power Ranks aren't objective either? They aren't mean to be objective. Go stare at the ELO tables if you want objective—which, by the way, Flash is way way ahead in.
Did I ever say they are truly objective? No. But an effort to maintain objectivity in how we interpret the results (which is guaranteed to reflect biases to at least some degree) is necessary. Were you not on TLnet this past year with 7834925627834562378956 JD fanboys accusing Plexa of ranking Flash ahead of JD on the basis of senseless JD-hate? Even if you claim that PR is essentially an editorial (stressing the discussion aspect over the ranking itself), it should be obvious after all these years of Power Ranks that an objective baseline is necessary. Power Rank makes an effort to fill in the gaps as well, but the perception of fairness in how it does so must exist.
And it's easy for you to delude yourself into thinking that everyone sensible agrees with you, but they won't. Fairness is very difficult to achieve. Which only goes to underline the importance of keeping a basis in results.
And just so folks haven't forgotten... ELO attempts to objectively measure skill. KeSPA attempts to measure accomplishments.
Regarding the next PR:
Stork is still my #1. I don't think he'll make dual golds. No doubt he's the hottest player on the market right now. A loss to PvP sniper Horang2 won't change that.
Flash is a good candidate for #2. He's played a number of the best and although he's been pushed pretty far (Fantasy), he hasn't been broken.
Bisu could easily go at #2, but I'm leaning towards #3. If he were still advancing in MSL, things might be different, but Stork stopped Bisu's advance. Again.
JD is my #4 unless Fantasy pulls some amazing shit over the rest of the month, or unless JD flops horribly.
#5 is likely to be Fantasy, depending on results.
#6 - #10 depend too heavily on MSL to fairly predict. Violet, Stats, and Bogus are likely to go here as well.
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Yeah I don't know what tfeign means...
but we simply disagree and I can accept that lets move on.
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On January 25 2011 07:31 Bill Murray wrote:
"too many zergs left" when zvp is the most imbalanced matchup in the game until his style, which I saw reach do first anyways.
You don't really have to make a new style when an old one suits the current enemy's style. I mean, Flash didn't come up with bio->mech nor JD with 3 base spire 5 hat hydra either, did they?
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Poland3751 Posts
Actually I don't think that ELO ranking is that objective. I have a feeling that it's a bit advantegous for winners in that in the tournament like OSL you can get a major boost by winning all the tournament long. But when you're sloppy you lose just one match (or BoX match) and you cease to play thus stopping loosing ELO ranking. So - for example - if you are Flash with 2400+ ELO points and you are in so bad form that you don't qualify for the second round, instead of loosing multiple matches you just loose one. At the same time if you are a winner you just amass dozens of ELO points throughout the tournament.
I think that ELO is not the best suited system for knockout. Proleague suits the model probably a bit better. If there will be introduced some kind of rating evaporation when you loose a small amount of points in each round of each ranking (MSL, OSL, Prolegue, ...) tournament in each you are not playing, then the result probably will be more representative. In this way if you loose in the first round of OSL you not only loose ELO for first round blunder but also for each round you miss in the tournament. In effect first-round blunders would be punished harder.
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On January 25 2011 23:01 nimdil wrote:
Actually I don't think that ELO ranking is that objective. I have a feeling that it's a bit advantegous for winners in that in the tournament like OSL you can get a major boost by winning all the tournament long. But when you're sloppy you lose just one match (or BoX match) and you cease to play thus stopping loosing ELO ranking. So - for example - if you are Flash with 2400+ ELO points and you are in so bad form that you don't qualify for the second round, instead of loosing multiple matches you just loose one. At the same time if you are a winner you just amass dozens of ELO points throughout the tournament.
I think that ELO is not the best suited system for knockout. Proleague suits the model probably a bit better. If there will be introduced some kind of rating evaporation when you loose a small amount of points in each round of each ranking (MSL, OSL, Prolegue, ...) tournament in each you are not playing, then the result probably will be more representative. In this way if you loose in the first round of OSL you not only loose ELO for first round blunder but also for each round you miss in the tournament. In effect first-round blunders would be punished harder.
I'm not sure I understand your complaint. Of course ELO rewards people who win more than people who lose. How does this make it not objective? What you've missed in your "only lose one game" argument is that the player who advances - even if he loses the very next round - gained points for the games he won to advance, so points he loses later for losing aren't somehow coming out of the same base score. If player A and player B go in at 1200, and player A wins, then we might have Player A 1210, Player B 1190. Player B is out, but if Player C (1200) then beats Player A, he may lose points to, say, 1198 (I haven't actually calculated any of this, I'm guessing wildly) - but he's still got more points than Player B whom he beat. Yes, I guess it's possible that he would lose 0-2, for example - but ELO considers each game separately (in most instances I know about). So I'm not seeing the problem.
You might as well complain that ELO doesn't deal well with ace matches or Winners League. "Sure if you win both you get points, but if you lose one game and don't get sent for ace you won't get punished for losing again."
But I think what you're missing is that ELO is a long-term ranking. Yes, if you just ran an ELO table from, say, the start of the OSL Prelims with everyone at 1000 to start, you'd get some pretty wild results. The thing is that the ELO system allows you to keep a running score based on the result of every game played, over a long period of time. But it can only be based on the results of games that have been played.
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EPT
