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On August 06 2010 05:29 Mortality wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2010 02:16 Djabanete wrote:On August 06 2010 01:16 Mortality wrote:On August 05 2010 14:56 yanmaodao wrote:On August 04 2010 07:16 Mortality wrote:On August 04 2010 06:40 yanmaodao wrote:On August 03 2010 09:13 Severedevil wrote:
Protoss were kind of boned on maps for a while. Notice the current revival comes when Protoss-friendly maps enter the map pool. Revival of Protoss? Is that why no Protoss are left in MSL? Is that why Protoss only advanced three players from the Ro36 in OSL? And looking at the OSL situation, Bisu must beat Action in order to advance. If he loses to Action, then he and Effort will be 0-2 and Leta and Action will be 2-0 and then the last week's games won't matter. Similarly, Pure can only advance if he beats Jaedong and Jaedong beats and Hydra loses both remaining games (that, at least, is somewhat likely), forcing a three way tie-breaker against Jaedong and Hydra. Group D is the main hope for Protoss to go far in this tournament. In the proleague, Protoss did much better in successive rounds following the WL low point. The statistics were brought up in another thread. Hell, even the PR you're commenting on features four P, the most we've had in a while. The introduction of Polaris Rhapsody surely has a lot to do with it, as the first genuinely pro-P map we've had since Destination, but can't be whole story as it's increasingly used as a PvP ghetto, with the only best non-P vP'ers even being considered for it. A large part may just be, while Protoss have always sort of been the third rail of BW progaming, their underperformance in late 2009/early 2010 was a statistical anomaly. There was bound to be some regression back toward the mean. I'm hesitant to call it a "Protoss revival" without some individual league results. We may have had an upturn in Proleague results, but so far we're seeing a downturn in individual league results, making it a moot point. Protoss can win on Polaris Rhapsody -- fine. But can they win elsewhere? The situation seems grim. As for "underperformance," it's because of metagame. Zerg was on top of the metagame at that time and ZvP balance was swinging way in favor of Zerg. It wasn't really an anomaly, more like a byproduct. "Anomaly" is not a synonym for "accident". If Protoss winrates were significantly lower around the Winner's League period than it was for months prior and months since, by definition it was an anomaly. If you have to look up synonyms for anomaly in the dictionary, then you probably should not try to argue this point.The drop in Protoss winrates was due to changes in how the game is actually played. That makes it no "accident" in the sense of statistical variation. Ergo, the drop in Protoss winrates was not an anomaly. Anyone who cares that they are using English correctly refers to a dictionary on occasion, and it makes them more likely to use a word correctly, not less. "Anomaly" is not a synonym for "accident". If Protoss winrates were significantly lower around the Winner's League period than it was for months prior and months since, by definition it was an anomaly. This is exactly right and I'm not sure what your quibble is with it. An explained anomaly is still an anomaly. The word doesn't mean "mystery" either. The point you are arguing is that the deviation in winrates can be ignored when considering the big picture. You are arguing that the dip in winrates was not due to a decrease in the true mean winrate for a Protoss player, but a deviation from the winrate due to variation. I disagree. I am saying that the true mean winrate for a Protoss player had decreased due to changes in the metagame.
No, the point I am arguing is that your dictionary comment was dumb and uncalled for.
Actually, I agree with you that recent Protoss underperformance is not just random variance. Protoss lacks a player of the caliber of Flash and Jaedong, and they are at an especially low point in the pendulum swing of BW strategy in both matchups. I'm not expert enough to go into much strategical detail, but here are my thoughts:
In PvT, P can fight for a little while in 3 base vs 3 base, but they need to rapidly win a decisive battle while taking a 4th for that to work. Bisu seems to have been aiming for this, but it seems hit-or-miss because P's 3-base economy doesn't replenish units as powerfully as T's 3-base economy does, and tank drops or vulture raids while P is building back up can spell doom. Therefore P would ideally prefer to be macroing off of 4 bases for the first large confrontation, but hitting the magic 4th-base-with-arbiter-map-control timing is getting increasingly hard as T has gotten increasingly good at fighting against Arbiters. Back when Arbiters were shiny and new, I remember players like Stork, Bisu and Jangbi grabbing 4-5 bases while T was on 3 and just crushing T's push; whether it's the maps or Terran adaptation, I don't see Protoss expanding so easily anymore. To further add to P's woes, Flash has developed a push off of 2 bases that incorporates as many as 10 marines (remember his "management strategy" that was in the works?), so a dragoon-light Protoss can just be overrun. It used to be that only roving vultures were a danger at that timing, so only minimal dragoons were necessary to deflect harassment, but this deadly push is delivered right as the first observers are out, so Protoss just have to be ready with enough dragoons to repel it. Oh yeah --- it used to be that siege expand was the standard FE for in TvP, but now siege expand is slow --- rax-bunker expand is where it's at, and as far as I can tell it's totally safe against reaver harass, goon pressure, or DT unless it's a complete all-in.
In short, Terran expands faster than ever and has aggressive options at almost every stage of the game, and dragoons just seem to be dropping like flies whenever Terran actually moves out, unless the Protoss was ready for exactly that timing, didn't get too greedy, and has perfect micro. Players like Stork and Best have maintained very respectable performances, but their counterpart in skill, Flash, just makes TvP look like a joke. P has to be pretty far ahead in the mental game for the actual game to be even, and even then a single bad engagement means they're toast --- but at least their saving grace is that P really does have a lot of mental game options, with a wide variety of threats that are looking increasingly all-in as Terrans adapt to be able to defend against anything.
In PvZ, I actually feel that things are a bit more hopeful. The 5-corsair, air-weapon-upgraded raid has become standard because it is relatively scourge-safe. Good protosses have been using that to open up reaver/DT drop opportunities while killing overlords and setting up a 3rd with reaver cover. Once the Protoss has a third base, he is actually in the game and things balance out, because Protoss's 3-base army with reavers, archons and templar can laugh at numerical disadvantage. In my opinion PvZ is on the upswing, but recently it seemed as bad as ever. Jaedong is completely invulnerable against Protoss unless you are Stork or Bisu, in which case it's likely to be absolutely down-to-the-wire even if you do end up winning. (Note that TLPD has Stork and Bisu beating Jaedong in their last stretch, but it doesn't count Jaedong 4-1'ing them collectively in the WCG proper; in addition, many of Jaedong's losses have been extremely close, whereas his victories tend to be completely ownage. Just saying that Stork's TLPD streak against Jaedong looks nice but should be taken with a grain of salt.)
Sooooooooo..... yeah, I don't think Protoss underperformance has been random variance 
Oh yeah, maps probably come into this too somehow, but I think map balance is especially subtle and I'm even less qualified to make observations on that than I am on strategy (already a stretch).
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On August 06 2010 07:23 Cpadolf wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2010 06:25 luckybeni2 wrote:
I know it's early but right now he has not had a single convincing win against a decent opponent. He has played 2 games... I mean, I wouldn't put him at #1 either right now but that's just silly.
I mean last month, too^^
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Quick, Plexa, eat your words. :o
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On August 05 2010 20:47 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:
plexa, sea has been to the round of 8 in both leagues many times you putz
Wait when? I thought he was famous for always leaving in the Ro16.
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United States10328 Posts
On August 06 2010 15:26 jalstar wrote:Show nested quote +On August 05 2010 20:47 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:
plexa, sea has been to the round of 8 in both leagues many times you putz Wait when? I thought he was famous for always leaving in the Ro16.
i feel like that is tongue-in-cheek.
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terrordactyl!
More toss than I remember in awhile.
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On August 01 2010 23:35 Fenrax wrote:
Oh my. Plexa <3
PERFECT Power Rank
Read the descriptions later for more feedback, but ranks 1-7 seems perfect. Bisu is tough to rate, but his potential is undeniable. 8-10 seems also okay.
This
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Oh Jaedong you get #1 again and your first 2 games are losses lol. Make me proud and show some domination the rest of the month :D
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Before you say, "It's only Hyuk..."
Who do you think beat JD in the finals last year?
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On August 07 2010 22:10 SimonB wrote:
Before you say, "It's only Hyuk..."
Who do you think beat JD in the finals last year?
fantasy?
/completely missing the point
But no, seriously, Hyuk's ZvT tends to be awful, and even if it's been a little better lately that was a bizarre decision by T1. Boxer would have been better - at least he's creative. Flash gets clutch points there, but no actual skill points.
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JD lost to both Hyuk and fantasy (twice).
Not saying Flash takes the cake on that one game, but it is nice that he followed through after perhaps the best proleague regular season record ever (despite his round 5) with a capping win in the final and breaking the KT curse.
And he did play really good versus Hyuk. I don't know how he read that so well. It could've been anything, but he realized it was a muta all-in followed by hydra rush, and he defended superbly.
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Jaedong in PL finals - 0:4, against Hyuk specifically - 0:1.
Flash in PL finals - 1:0, against Hyuk specifically - 1:0.
Not that it has some meaningful value, but it's interesting nonetheless. I really don't blame JD for his losses against SKT, but the game against Frozean in OZ vs Khan was somewhat similar to Flash vs Hyuk. Both lesser opponents, both went for pretty allinish strategy...only this time, Flash star sense and amazing defense allowed him to win.
J1.au: damn sorry, I originaly meant "x wins : y games total", edited now to classic win:loss format.
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On August 07 2010 23:42 L0thar wrote:
Jaedong in PL finals - 0:4, against Hyuk specifically - 0:1.
Flash in PL finals - 1:1, against Hyuk specifically - 1:1.
Not that it has some meaningful value, but it's interesting nonetheless. I really don't blame JD for his losses against SKT, but the game against Frozean in OZ vs Khan was somewhat similar to Flash vs Hyuk. Both lesser opponents, both went for pretty allinish strategy...only this time, Flash star sense and amazing defense allowed him to win.
Flash didn't lose to Hyuk in the PL finals...
Edit: Oh I see, that makes a lot more sense. 
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The problem with bringing up year old stats is that they are meaningless here. The OSL/MSL games are going to be the decider for PR for sure.
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On August 08 2010 02:21 Mortality wrote:
The problem with bringing up year old stats is that they are meaningless here. The OSL/MSL games are going to be the decider for PR for sure.
Flash has terrible scheduling again. WCG against Leta, MSL against Forgg and OSL against Hyia, day after day. By far the worst among all the players.
But his condition seems pretty good.
IT will be again Jaedong vs Flash for no1 this month. Unless Sea manages to sneak through to round of 4 in MSL.
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On August 08 2010 02:26 Lebesgue wrote:Show nested quote +On August 08 2010 02:21 Mortality wrote:
The problem with bringing up year old stats is that they are meaningless here. The OSL/MSL games are going to be the decider for PR for sure. Flash has terrible scheduling again. WCG against Leta, MSL against Forgg and OSL against Hyia, day after day. By far the worst among all the players. But his condition seems pretty good. IT will be again Jaedong vs Flash for no1 this month. Unless Sea manages to sneak through to round of 4 in MSL.
Well at least they're all against the same race, although their playstyles are quire different from each other.
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im not a Flash fan, bur wouldn't it be sick if he won PL, MSL, and OSL XD I mean that would be damn sick
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On August 06 2010 07:23 Cpadolf wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2010 06:25 luckybeni2 wrote:
I know it's early but right now he has not had a single convincing win against a decent opponent. He has played 2 games... I mean, I wouldn't put him at #1 either right now but that's just silly.
yea, and he's gonna LWWW sea and crush pure so really those two loses are going to be meaning less
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Should Jaedong stay #1 despite losing if Flash continues this month without losing?
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EPT
