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On July 06 2010 23:45 TwoToneTerran wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2010 23:25 khellian wrote:On July 06 2010 23:20 TwoToneTerran wrote:
Obviously it can't have a retroactive effect, but it's ridiculous to say it doesn't help validate something controversial. Say Flash and Jaedong have a close month and Plexa puts Jaedong at #1 and Flash at #2, and then in the next week Flash beats Jaedong in a series -- this reflects poorly on his decision to state that Jaedong was ahead of Flash.
The rank is up on the site for an entire month before it can be changed, it has to have a sort of longevity between the months. Why would it do that? Clearly in this case it was felt that Jaedong was the better player LAST month. Him losing THIS month doesn't change what he did last month. I just don't agree. I will drop this now. You seem to be misinterpreting me. I'm not saying that anyone's wrong to say that Jaedong should've been 1st last month. It was very controversial, but Plexa made a call. That call, if it is a good one, will carry through until next month changes things. It's okay to still think that Jaedong should've been #1, but if Jaedong goes on a 10 game losing streak this month while Flash crushes everyone (not likely), it does look kindly on the rank for making a controversial call in the right direction.
I wasn't talkning about the real PR but your hypothetical situation.
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On July 06 2010 23:49 nimoraca wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2010 23:25 khellian wrote:On July 06 2010 23:20 TwoToneTerran wrote:
Obviously it can't have a retroactive effect, but it's ridiculous to say it doesn't help validate something controversial. Say Flash and Jaedong have a close month and Plexa puts Jaedong at #1 and Flash at #2, and then in the next week Flash beats Jaedong in a series -- this reflects poorly on his decision to state that Jaedong was ahead of Flash.
The rank is up on the site for an entire month before it can be changed, it has to have a sort of longevity between the months. Why would it do that? Clearly in this case it was felt that Jaedong was the better player LAST month. Him losing THIS month doesn't change what he did last month. I just don't agree. I will drop this now. I don't believe that PR tells you who was the "better" player last month. It tells you, AT THE TIME OF THE WRITING of the PR, who (in authors own opinion) is the strongest (most powerful) player in the world. It is called monthly PR because it comes out once in a month, not because it takes just the last month into consideration. Sure the last month statistics are taken into consideration. Usually the month before that is also taken into consideration (with less significance possibly). Also special events are given additional importance, like last played OSL, MSL and WL or PL finals. Pure statistics never was and never should be the only factor for creating the PR cause then you wouldn't need the the PR.
I don't know what you are trying to say. I never said it was or should be based purely on statistics. I am just using a month as a way to tell past from future, it could be anything. I may word it poorly, but thats because english isn't my first language and not my only second language.
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On July 06 2010 21:42 HnR)hT wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2010 20:52 revy wrote:
I don't know about the whole "results after the PR is released can validate it" idea, I don't really like it. The PR isn't written to predict the future, it's more a statement of who would win in an impromptu BO5. Now sometimes these two things can align, but one being true does not necessarily imply the other is true. You may not like the idea, but it's true  . It's not out of the ordinary for subsequent information to shed light on past events or to necessitate a reassessment of past judgements or predictions. Whether the PR is "written to predict the future" has nothing to do with it. With only a few days having passed between now and when the PR was submitted, it can't really be argued that Jaedong has gotten worse and that he's no longer the same player. IMO (and this point may be debatable, but to me seems obvious) the purpose of the PR is to rank according to who is the better player right now, given all available evidence. If you accept this, then the results of games played 5 days before the PR have approximately the same relevance as games played 5 days after the PR. The only reason that the latter evidence is not used is because it is impossible to know the future. This seems counterintuitive, but it's a simple point once grasped. The only way you can logically disagree with the above is if you have a different conception of what the PR should be about. For example, some may think that the PR should judge who has been the best player last month, instead of who is the best player now given evidence mostly from last month. But I believe that if you think about it, that idea is just silly. 
You make a good point, have things really changed that much in the last 5 days? No, not really, but to say they haven't changed at all doesn't work. It's like Zeno's paradox which disproves motion. I would say that the player's play is not as much the cause of the variability as is our lack of information. As phenomenal a player as Flash is and as good as he was when he played in winners league, he could not have done what he did without a little bit of luck. He made his own fate, but sometimes your proxy just gets scouted, sometimes you just don't scan the right place. I would argue that a few months ago Flash was somewhat lucky, and perhaps last month he wasn't lucky. As time goes on and luck cancels out (as it swings in both directions) we collect more complete information but also some of our information decays. As a result we never know beyond a reasonable doubt how someone actually ranks. Luck can essentially be treated as random variability.
This is why it is often the case that being high on the PR implies that you will do well next month but you can't always assume that. It relates to the statistical idea of "level of significance". In many ways statisticians are realists, they know that they're going to be wrong sometimes, the question is how often do you want to be wrong. In the case of last month it is completely possible that Flash's win rate was lower than his usual by a statistically significant margin however, this lower win rate may have just been chance. To put it more exactly, Flash may have played worse at an 0.05 level of significance (chance of a more extreme result is less than 5%) yet it may have just been chance.
This is why you cant completely validate an old PR with new results. Even though things haven't changed much since this PR came out, things are undoubtedly different. Oh and be careful that you dont disprove motion, otherwise Boxer Nada Oov and Savior would all concurrently be ranked 1st.
Edit: Zeno's Paradox posted here -- It's a cute argument
Achilles and the tortoise
“ In a race, the quickest runner can never overtake the slowest, since the pursuer must first reach the point whence the pursued started, so that the slower must always hold a lead. ”
—Aristotle, Physics VI , 239b15
In the paradox of Achilles and the Tortoise, Achilles is in a footrace with the tortoise. Achilles allows the tortoise a head start of 100 metres. If we suppose that each racer starts running at some constant speed (one very fast and one very slow), then after some finite time, Achilles will have run 100 metres, bringing him to the tortoise's starting point. During this time, the tortoise has run a much shorter distance, say, 10 metres. It will then take Achilles some further time to run that distance, by which time the tortoise will have advanced farther; and then more time still to reach this third point, while the tortoise moves ahead. Thus, whenever Achilles reaches somewhere the tortoise has been, he still has farther to go. Therefore, because there are an infinite number of points Achilles must reach where the tortoise has already been, he can never overtake the tortoise.[8][9]
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ZERO neeeeds to be on this list. He is most definitely one of the top 10.
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On July 06 2010 21:22 Musoeun wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2010 20:50 ZZangDreamjOy wrote:On July 06 2010 20:45 HnR)hT wrote:
Today's results help Plexa's cause a lot I woudl say. Not at all. Jaedong lost a ZvP vs one of the greatest PvZérs ever, even if Bisu was slumping lately, he's still better then Ruby. And he lost a ZvZ, which is the most volatile matchup in the game. I think it proves absolutely nothing. Well, Flash did win a TvT again finally, against ...KHAN's 2nd-best (I'm guessing) Terran. So yeah.
lol, just say Turn. It's very disingenuous to say 2nd best Terran. Also, JD had a bad day today. it happens and perhaps it was to early to dethrone FlaSh but I think todays games say more about Bisu's form than anyones
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Jaedongs play today can also have something to do with his Ro36 games tomorrow, guessing he has been practising his vT more lately. Still pumped about Bisu though, really really really hope he is on his way back to the top!
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Nah man, Jaedong's loss just means he's so good other people are adapting. Sound familiar?
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On July 07 2010 03:54 n.DieJokes wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2010 21:22 Musoeun wrote:On July 06 2010 20:50 ZZangDreamjOy wrote:On July 06 2010 20:45 HnR)hT wrote:
Today's results help Plexa's cause a lot I woudl say. Not at all. Jaedong lost a ZvP vs one of the greatest PvZérs ever, even if Bisu was slumping lately, he's still better then Ruby. And he lost a ZvZ, which is the most volatile matchup in the game. I think it proves absolutely nothing. Well, Flash did win a TvT again finally, against ...KHAN's 2nd-best (I'm guessing) Terran. So yeah. lol, just say Turn. It's very disingenuous to say 2nd best Terran. Also, JD had a bad day today. it happens and perhaps it was to early to dethrone FlaSh but I think todays games say more about Bisu's form than anyones
Bisu has always been able to beat Jaedong. It's his randomness against mediocre players that's problematic (and causing him to drop out of leagues before he gets a chance to play Jaedong).
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On July 07 2010 04:43 Avidkeystamper wrote:
Nah man, Jaedong's loss just means he's so good other people are adapting. Sound familiar?
Indeed what happened is familiar. Not terribly different circumstances either. Bisu is strong (or seems to be, again) and s2 is underrated (woefully -- he's not playing like the scrappy he once was). These losses are just a bump in the road. I don't expect them to hurt Jaedong's chances in the slightest. So long as he keeps advancing in the leagues, there's no issue. And I'd give him very favorable chances to pass his OSL group. I won't be too surprised if he drops a game or two (Mong is strongest TvZ and Movie has always had really good PvZ), but I don't give either of them favorable chances in a bo3 against Jaedong.
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
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On July 07 2010 06:51 Plexa wrote:This could be one of the most controversial PRs ever written  Jaedong was making a case for #1 with a strong series of games in the PL. His losses last night do not surprise me in the least. He's still without doubt the #2 player in the world but I would say that Flash (barring a slump) is still the #1 player in the world. Although I will say the number of Jaedong fans on this site surprised me
Plexa, your PR was not for performance at present, it was for the month of June. And it was kind of predicted that if Jaedong started losing, you would start supporting your PR reasoning again. Look how quiet you were when even some Flash fanboys were saying that they would have put JD#1 for this PR
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On July 07 2010 07:01 BPCoffee wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2010 06:51 Plexa wrote:This could be one of the most controversial PRs ever written Jaedong was making a case for #1 with a strong series of games in the PL. His losses last night do not surprise me in the least. He's still without doubt the #2 player in the world but I would say that Flash (barring a slump) is still the #1 player in the world. Although I will say the number of Jaedong fans on this site surprised me Plexa, your PR was not for performance at present, it was for the month of June. And it was kind of predicted that if Jaedong started losing, you would start supporting your PR reasoning again. Look how quiet you were when even some Flash fanboys were saying that they would have put JD#1 for this PR
Mmmm 25 post user questioning 18000 post user using less than questionable means.
Maybe it's cause he doesn't have the time to look through 500 comments?
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On July 07 2010 06:51 Plexa wrote:This could be one of the most controversial PRs ever written Jaedong was making a case for #1 with a strong series of games in the PL. His losses last night do not surprise me in the least. He's still without doubt the #2 player in the world but I would say that Flash (barring a slump) is still the #1 player in the world. Although I will say the number of Jaedong fans on this site surprised me Show nested quote +On July 07 2010 04:43 Avidkeystamper wrote:
Nah man, Jaedong's loss just means he's so good other people are adapting. Sound familiar? Jaedong hasn't been the man to beat for 8 months
He's still be pretty beastly, it's not like people adapt only to one person.
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On July 07 2010 07:01 BPCoffee wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2010 06:51 Plexa wrote:This could be one of the most controversial PRs ever written Jaedong was making a case for #1 with a strong series of games in the PL. His losses last night do not surprise me in the least. He's still without doubt the #2 player in the world but I would say that Flash (barring a slump) is still the #1 player in the world. Although I will say the number of Jaedong fans on this site surprised me Plexa, your PR was not for performance at present, it was for the month of June. And it was kind of predicted that if Jaedong started losing, you would start supporting your PR reasoning again. Look how quiet you were when even some Flash fanboys were saying that they would have put JD#1 for this PR The thing 90% of the people complaining about this ranking don't get is that the PR tries to look beyond the simple statistic. You can't accurately gauge the performance of a player by his record. The PR is meant to reward players who play good starcraft in the previous month (or two if necessary) and try to give you an accurate gauge of who is the best starcraft player at the moment. In other words, if you were a betting man - which players would you want to put your money on. Despite how well Jaedong played in June and how mediocre Flash's record, the statistics were deceptive.
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Yeah, he is not entitled to have a opinion, write 475 one-liners first, then comeback.
And a big huge capslock LOL @ Plexa
His losses last night do not surprise me in the least.
Care to elaborate on your reasons for that statement? Because I cannot remember when Jaedong has ever lost 2 games in one PL-match. And he has been under pressure a hundred times before. So your reason cannot be history, it cannot really be pressure (at least I would disagree completely) and it cannot be his lackluster play, after convincingly going 8-1 last month.
When you are writing stuff like that without anything to back it up, you just discredit yourself.
edit: I remember, he went 0-2 in the grand finals day 2 last year. Self-touché.
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United States20661 Posts
All these punks saying YellOw/JD was a BO loss somehow think they know more than the players themselves.
YellOw said himself that due to rush distance 9p vs 12h actually isn't an easy win on that map. He was actually disadvantaged in some ways, since he had to build static D to live against JD's larvae advantage.
Go die in a fire.
BTW CNBC: YellOw
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On July 07 2010 07:22 Malinor wrote:Yeah, he is not entitled to have a opinion, write 475 one-liners first, then comeback. And a big huge capslock LOL @ Care to elaborate on your reasons for that statement? Because I cannot remember when Jaedong has ever lost 2 games in one PL-match. And he has been under pressure a hundred times before. So your reason cannot be history, it cannot really be pressure (at least I would disagree completely) and it cannot be his lackluster play, after convincingly going 8-1 last month.
When you are writing stuff like that without anything to back it up, you just discredit yourself. PL is a fickle beast, anyone - and I mean anyone - can lose 1-2 games in a night. If you look at it completely from a statistics point of view - even if you have an 80% winrate there is a small chance you can lose twice. It happens.
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Well at some point when the statitistics give you a completely different result than your interprentation of the games you have to question if you are objective and knows enough about the game. Flash didn't loose those games because he was cheesed or unlucky, he lost them because he played bad. My opponion is that the PR should focus a lot more on the results from the month given and not as much on previous results because as people already said before: why make people wait for a PR in june when the 2 most important spots couldn't be affected by the results in june at all.
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On July 07 2010 08:38 Plexa wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2010 07:22 Malinor wrote:Yeah, he is not entitled to have a opinion, write 475 one-liners first, then comeback. And a big huge capslock LOL @ Plexa
His losses last night do not surprise me in the least.
Care to elaborate on your reasons for that statement? Because I cannot remember when Jaedong has ever lost 2 games in one PL-match. And he has been under pressure a hundred times before. So your reason cannot be history, it cannot really be pressure (at least I would disagree completely) and it cannot be his lackluster play, after convincingly going 8-1 last month.
When you are writing stuff like that without anything to back it up, you just discredit yourself. PL is a fickle beast, anyone - and I mean anyone - can lose 1-2 games in a night. If you look at it completely from a statistics point of view - even if you have an 80% winrate there is a small chance you can lose twice. It happens.
Although it should be noted that it has only happened twice to Jaedong and Flash.
Oh, your original statement is it doesn't surprise you. Okay.
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Bisu better get something better than #10 next month. :D
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EPT
