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Alright, I'm back. Goddamn math is hard. Anyways, time to write up that reply.
On May 19 2009 08:17 Shikyo wrote:All right, guys. I'm going to tell you something that caught my eye. BWdero has thus far only made one post in this topic. The post was this: Show nested quote +On May 19 2009 00:31 BWdero wrote:That would be Black Bolt, King of the Inhumans. @chaoser Even if we do lynch an inactive blue we don't really hurt the town because they were inactive anyways. I support killing off an inactive. But only if no major suspects come up. Seeing how this is only the first day I seriously doubt any suspects will come up. Seeing as how day 1 clue analysis is rubbish and only an idiot mafia would betray himself so early. This post can basically be considered as just repeating information that already has been said, without adding anything new. So what's so interesting about this post? It is the usage of some powerful words, especially "idiot" and "rubbish". I checked all of BWdero's post from the last 3 games he played in, and indeed, he never used this kind of language, rather, his posts were respective most of the time, although there were sometimes a few sarcastic lines mixed in. He was a townie in all 3 games.
The reason I said day 1 clue analysis is rubbish is because in a previous game I put way too much value on day 1 clue analysis. (the pikachu thing in game 5, ask Pyrrhuloxia if you don't know what I'm talking about) Once I figured out how useless day 1 clue analysis is on it's own I really felt stupid for putting so much weight into it. Which is the reason I feel so strongly about it.
I said only an idiot mafia would betray himself so early because, well, it's true. Only a mafia that is truly an idiot would do something to give himself away so early in the game.
Also, the word "betray" feels slightly strange here. Would a townie use the word "betray" like this? To me, it seems more likely that he would feel like they themselves would be betrayed to use such a word. Which would make me believe he'd be mafia.
Yes, a towny would use the word betray like that. You're reading too much into things.
Also, there's the issue of him voting for JeeJee, which is what made me initially check him up, after his first post had caught my eye before. He basically only came on and voted. Isn't that strange? Now, I checked his voting history the past 3 games, and he has generally been bandwagoning, as in, voting for the person with the most votes.In one case in the last mafia, there were multiple possible lynchables, where he abstained. In the same mafia, he voted for Qatol for office after 4 people had voted him before him.
In all the lynch votes, he was generally voting for the person who had the most votes. In mafia 5, however, he voted for semioldguy, although BC had more votes at the moment. After that, however, he changed his vote to Pyrruloxia right after 3 people had voted for him.
So in this case, it seems really strange for him to come on just to vote for JeeJee without having really said anything in the thread for a long time. And his language and word choice seem suspicious to me, as well.
I didn't bandwagon so I'm suspicious? Great logic there. The reason I voted for JeeJee was specifically to avoid a bandwagon. You see, I was afraid that everyone would start to just bandwagon vote for you, so I decided to mix things up with a vote for JeeJee. Who seems like a decent candidate to me. You yourself admitted his platform was better than your other competitors. And I figured I could always change my vote if a better option came up. At this point it's pretty obvious you will get sherrif. And JeeJee looks like he's a good option for mayor to me.
What do you guys think about this?
I think you're reading too much into things.
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For those who haven't read my platform, I would urge you to do so - it is at the top of this page. I want to pose a question to town: once the mayor does get elected today, who would you like to see get lynched? I also want to reiterate that no one should be PMing their roles to the new elected Sheriff and Mayor until further confirmation.
Our activity in this game has been pretty disappointing. The more lurkers there are the more it benefits the reds. Come on out people!
The last 3 pages have pretty much been arguing about elections, and we've seem to forget about our first day clues (however vague they may be). I'll try to get some clue analysis done by the end of elections.
Anyways I've come up with the inactive list:
Posted very little:
7. motbob - ran for Sheriff
15. ydg - clue analysis
16. sugiuramidori - clue analysis
19. therapy - talked so he didnt look like an inactive
24. Knutti - didn't really say much, see pg4
26. Koopie - forgot what he said but wasn't too important
29. phelix - didn't really say much, see pg4
30. bwdero - supports killing inactive even if he's blue, minor clue analysis
Never posted:
5. omG.[RaYnE]
6. clazziquai
13. adriix33
18. Ra.Xor.2
31. epicdoom
I'll address this right now.
What clues?
The only thing I have seen even remotely linked to me is the word "creep" and my pet zergling icon. I don't need to remind you that we have at least 8 players with zerg icons playing this game. You will be rather hard pressed to validate anything based solely on that.
What about the "eerily crepusclar" clue - with your cat in the profile? Hope you can explain that a little.
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On May 20 2009 01:09 zeks wrote:
For those who haven't read my platform, I would urge you to do so - it is at the top of this page. I want to pose a question to town: once the mayor does get elected today, who would you like to see get lynched? I also want to reiterate that no one should be PMing their roles to the new elected Sheriff and Mayor until further confirmation.
I'll support lynching an inactive player. As has been said many times already, townies really should atleast write something in this thread. We need all the input we can get, and we need to force the mafia to speak up as well. So I guess for now we're going off this list:
zeks wrote:
Never posted:
5. omG.[RaYnE]
6. clazziquai
13. adriix33
18. Ra.Xor.2
31. epicdoom
It is worth to mention that omG.[RaYnE] atleast has voted, but I'm not really sure a possible bandwagon vote is any better than inactivity.
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@zeks, well I'd like to have an inactive lynched. And yes I support that despite the fact that there's a chance we'll hit a blue because that blue wouldn't have been useful anyways, what with being inactive and all that.
Oh and you claim that I did some minor clue analysis, please point me to where I did that because I'm pretty sure i didn't.
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@BWDero:
Sorry, might have mixed you up with someone else.
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At this point, barring any bandwagoners, Shikyo is going to be sheriff, and JeeJee is going to be the mayor.
In the parking lot, LTT, the love child of the late L and Samsung Khan's captain, read an Erlend Loe novel in his Audi sports car. Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time.
I think the last paragraph can give us the most clue analysis. The town has already analyzed the Erlend Loe clue, which is an author from Norway. The car reference, which is very weak, is in crate's profile with the license plate. The waves could refer to iloveKTF's profile picture of sound waves, and KTF is slumping right now in the current Proleague.
As I reiterated before, Day 1 lynching is going to be a crapshoot. I doubt Pyrr would give out mafia clues easily on the first day.
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I find it interesting how epicdoom hasn't posted, and has abstained from voting. Is he just a lazy townie who doesn't want to get modkilled?
Thank you BWdero, that seems reasonable.
I'm also wondering when Foolishness is going to post the next time, he seems to have quieted down a little.
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Could it be possible that Pyrr are making the clues easier than usual because this is a newbie game? If not, I'd say that my try on connecting slumping to iLoveKTF is probably too weak. The sound waves could fit though. Erlend Loe may point to a Norwegian player, but it's hard to tell without a clue check. I'm thinking it's probably nothing.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Sorry for quieting down I try to check up on here as much as I can 
Shikyo, as I stated before I don't want someone being freely elected into office without someone to stand up against him first. You were freely riding your way into office and none of the other candidates wanted to do anything about it.
I have considered the scenario you pointed out with me being mafia. But as you said even you find it hard to believe that's true, so that should give you your answer.
What's more likely is that you are mafia as I suspect and I'm just trying to get you from being in office (as any good townie should be doing). But even this is a small chance.
I will post more in a bit.
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just to talk about who we might want to lynch, there's two real choices. Either inactives (from the list that zeks made up) or Jayme since there seems to be clues against him (cat picture, name meaning "he who supplants"). In regards to lynching "inactive" blues, we do discuss who we lynch and if it's really a blue, they'd try to defend themselves so that's not REALLY a problem.
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To be safe I suggest we try to find clues that may point to the inactives so we can have a better shot at hitting a red. I am also supportive if we were to lynch Jayme based on clues.
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Just messing around with some scripts.. heres a list of people with 2 or fewer posts so far:
+ Show Spoiler +omG.[RaYnE] 0 *voted Shikyo
clazziquai 0 *no vote
motbob 2 *abstain
adriix33 0 *no vote
ydg 1 *voted JeeJee
SugiuraMidori 2 *no vote
Ra.Xor.2 0 *not vote
Therapy 1 *abstain
The_Master 2 *voted Jimtudor
Knutti 1 *voted Shikyo
Koopie 1 *no vote
Phelix 2 *voted Jimtudor
epicdoom 0 *abstain
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Since everyone is in support on lynching on Day 1, I agree with chaoser and zeks idea on lynching the inactives, and trying to find clues against them. The clues against Jayme are pretty strong, but as I state, Day 1 clues are usually very weak in terms of trying to analyze them.
I've been trying to find the link with decaffeinated coffee with a drumstick, since that's a pretty strong hint, but nothing says it in their profiles or their usernames.
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I'll put what they posted too, sorry if its a bit messed up, my programming skills arent that good :p
omG.[RaYnE]
+ Show Spoiler +
clazziquai
+ Show Spoiler +
motbob
+ Show Spoiler + Who is this comic book character? <a href="http://www.te amliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=bwdero" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http: //www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=bwdero</a><br><br>EDIT: This is the last time I'll edit one of my posts. Spelled a word wrong.<div style="float :right; font-size:8pt; margin-top:15px">Last edit: 2009-05-18 15:34:53</div> <img src="http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c372/motbob/ sheriff.png" style="max-width: 591px" class="css-image" alt="[image loading& #93;" title=""><br>If I am mafia, I pledge to give myself away immediately due t o stupidity.<br>If I am not, I pledge to lead the town to victory through my she er brilliance.<br>In all seriousness, I have a simple message to give: if I' ;m elected, I'll formulate a plan, follow it, and be extremely active in th e thread. I'll coordinate the town in the style of semioldguy in Mafia 5 (a game which Town won handily.)<br><br>If you elect me sheriff, we'll win. < b>I guarantee it on penalty of two-day temp ban.</b><br><br>EDIT: FUCK I SPELLED "SHERIFF" WRONG. Sorry.<div style="float:right; font-size:8pt; margin -top:15px">Last edit: 2009-05-19 05:53:59</div>
adriix33
+ Show Spoiler +
ydg
+ Show Spoiler +
Going back to clue analysis, no one has mentioned this p
art yet:<br><br>Meanwhile, downstairs, Qatol was using the Triumvirate Building&
#039;s spacious archery range for target practice. As he looked down to reload,
another figure crossed the room from the other side. The mafioso crept behind Qa
tol and took out his knife. Qatol never shot another arrow.<br><br>I don't
know if Pyrry is using clues to indicate characteristics of mafia like Chuiu doe
s, or if he uses words in his paragraphs relating to information from Mafia.<br>
If it's the first one, then this mafia "creeps" and "crossed
the room [of the spacious archery range] from the other side" quite quickl
y, in the time it takes Qatol to reload. This seems to indicate a sort of animal
, to me at least, which may go well with the clue about the cat.
SugiuraMidori
+ Show Spoiler + Something I feel I should point out due to being Qatol&# 039;s pawn... The decaf coffee bit is a long standing joke with the vets about d ecafchicken... so it wouldn't be a clue here as that person is not playing the game. Additionally this is related with the drumstick bit, as chicken drums ticks = legs (the dark meat). As these 'clues' are too easy to match with that person I wouldn't take them to note.<br><br>The suffrage of LTT d ue to blood loss and glass exploding seems to strike me as more of a clue worth noting. Secondly, as no one seems to have pointed it out and perhaps doesn' ;t know, L is the main character in Death Note series, where a kid of a police c hief can write any sort of death description down in a notebook and have it happ en. Glass exploding inward seems to be something improbable short of magick or sound waves at the right frequency.. perhaps someone's profile would reflec t this?<br><br>I also agree that the bit about the 'horn not heard in time& #039; would reflect against someone's profile as it sounds like a metaphor or definition for something as well as pointing out how massively alone he was, perhaps even in a deserted street far from civilization. Possibly on a road tri p.<br><br>As for the death of Pyrr, perhaps something that has to do with height s or a hotel/apartment building that would contain many floors and a balcony. P ushing people, creeping with a knife, and explosions(?) were what killed folks; so yes that gives at least three mafia clues overall.<br><br>P.S.<br>I am rushin g out to drive to Tucson so I won't be back for 10 hours and am unable to l ook more into my suspicions about folks, but wanted to let everyone know that I won't be inactive and give at least some pointers along my thought lines. <div class="quote"><hr><b>On May 19 2009 00:43 Shikyo wr ote:</b><br>I'm not exactly sure if KTF is slumping, though... it might be a bit too far-fetched. But of course, we have to keep this stuff in mind some cl ues come up later that might relate to these. Still, day 1 clues are day 1 clues , so please don't draw any strange conclusions off them. <a style='text-dec oration:none;font-family:monospace;color:#808080' href="#" title="very minor Dea th Note spoilers"onClick="toggleShowSpoiler(this, 'very minor Death Note spoiler s', 5);return false">+ Show Spoiler [very minor Death Note spoilers] +</a><br> <div id='spoiler_5' style='border:1px solid #808080;padding:5px;background-color :#EBEFF2;display:none'><div class='forummsg'>L actually isn't the main char acter of Death Note; Light is. And he's not a police officer, but rather a righteous/religious school boy. </div></div><hr></div><br><br>Oh yes.. thanks.. been a couple years since I watched that... got the two confused.. L is the det ective character, so bleh.. I guess that was all rather irrelevant of me xD
Ra.Xor.2
+ Show Spoiler +
Therapy
+ Show Spoiler +
Hi guys, just chiming in here so I don't get killed
for inactiveness. This is my first mafia game besides playing with about 15 fr
iends around 2 years ago so I'm probably not going to be saying anything to
o profound. I haven't really been swayed by any of the potential sheriff&#
039;s speech's so far, they sound reasonably intelligent but don't sta
te anything that's beyond just general knowledge or logic. If I dunno who
to vote for should I just abstain or should I take a shot in the dark?
The_Master
+ Show Spoiler +
I am up for lynching inactive people on the first day.
First of all, they are going to get killed anyway in a couple days, and if there
is not enough evidence to pinpoint anyone it's better than just choosing a
random active person (who is more than likely a townie).<br><br>Yes, it is poss
ible that we might accidentally kill a blue role, but we might get a maffie as w
ell. Anyway, there isn't much difference a blue role who doesn't do an
ything and dead blue role.<br><br>If someone is acting suspicious, I'm all
for it - but I doubt that will happen on the first day.
I do not know what to post, but since everyone is saying
how much random people should post I shall give it a shot and perhaps something
magical will come out of my mouth (although, it's too bad it won't do
anyone any good because no one will hear it :D). What follows is mostly [proba
bly] meaningless, but will perhaps someone feels like reading another post.<br><
br>Since this is my first game ever, I don't feel like I have anything too
important to contribute and can probably be led fairly easily. I will make a co
nscious effort to avoid bandwagoning, although I will also have to make sure I d
on't not bandwagon just for the sake of not bandwagoning (if you catch my d
rift). That said, I hope I don't make a fool of myself and do something I
will look back on and think "That was incredibly stupid."<br><br>Anywa
y, the point of this post was to post. Perhaps someday I'll say something
useful, but unless I said something deep and profound which somehow translated i
nto this post subconsciously (which would be great) I do not have anything more
to say.
Knutti
+ Show Spoiler + <div class="quote"><hr><b>On May 19 2009 00:43 Shikyo wr ote:</b><br>I'm not exactly sure if KTF is slumping<hr></div><br><br>You wo uldn't be saying that if you had KTF in FPL <img src="/mirror/smilies/frown .gif" border="0" alt=""><br><br>@teks: everyone can say they didn't check t heir roles before nominating for sheriff/mayor but that doesn't make it any more true and imo anyone who says that are only trying to draw suspicion away f rom themself
Koopie
+ Show Spoiler +
I'm definitely going to hold off on voting noting h
ow useless campaigns really are, especially with so many. If anything it just d
raws extra attention to the person, which isn't always bad. Clue analysis,
behavioral analysis... Everything is difficult on day one. But I suppose that
's the point and there's no need for me to point out the obvious, eh?<
br><br>Hopefully the rest of the inactives post, because even if they have a blu
e role, how much is that really helping if they're not around? Because as
much as you think they <i>might</i> have a blue role, a red role is just as like
ly.<br><br>Anyways, with all of my obviousness aside, I'm going to wait unt
il I can read more into things until I'll vote in the elections.
Phelix
+ Show Spoiler +
At this point, there isn't really much to go on in
Day 1, since there are a lot of new people in this game, thus unable to gauge th
eir personalities, which does not help with the clue analysis. Lynching on Day 1
is going to be a crapshoot unless the detectives can rolecheck, and they can�
39;t until night.
At this point, barring any bandwagoners, Shikyo is going
to be sheriff, and JeeJee is going to be the mayor.<br><br><i>In the parking lo
t, LTT, the love child of the late L and Samsung Khan's captain, read an Er
lend Loe novel in his Audi sports car. Without warning, his windshield shattered
and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss
, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time.</i><
br><br>I think the last paragraph can give us the most clue analysis. The town h
as already analyzed the Erlend Loe clue, which is an author from Norway. The car
reference, which is very weak, is in crate's profile with the license plat
e. The waves could refer to iloveKTF's profile picture of sound waves, and
KTF is slumping right now in the current Proleague. <br><br>As I reiterated befo
re, Day 1 lynching is going to be a crapshoot. I doubt Pyrr would give out mafia
clues easily on the first day.
epicdoom
+ Show Spoiler +
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
It seems people are leaning towards lynching Jayme.
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The race for mayor is pretty close still.. Could the contenders please state their strategy for the day 1 lynch?
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On May 20 2009 04:23 softer wrote:
The race for mayor is pretty close still.. Could the contenders please state their strategy for the day 1 lynch?
A name would be nice.
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Based on clues: Jayme
Other than that: I choose therapy.
Justification on therapy:
His one post:
Hi guys, just chiming in here so I don't get killed for inactiveness. This is my first mafia game besides playing with about 15 friends around 2 years ago so I'm probably not going to be saying anything too profound. I haven't really been swayed by any of the potential sheriff's speech's so far, they sound reasonably intelligent but don't state anything that's beyond just general knowledge or logic. If I dunno who to vote for should I just abstain or should I take a shot in the dark?
The majority of us have agreed to lynch an inactive for first lynch, and the whole purpose of his one post is so that he won't be on the chopping block for this lynch. It is because of this that makes me suspicious of him. He may have posted once, so it looks like he's better than the ones that haven't posted, but I think his post was as good as nothing. Furthermore, his profile has pretty much one thing to relate clues to: the quote: "Let's start a revolution so I can break some shit." I am linking this to the last part of day 1: Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time.
This isn't the strongest clue, but the links are:
"break some shit" -> "windshield shattered and a wave of glass..."
"start a revolution" -> "sounding a horn"
So because of those two counts and the majority of us wanting to lynch an inactive, I would thus lynch therapy if I were to be elected mayor.
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As of now, the day 1 lynch will be an inactive or de facto inactive player. The one with the strongest logical clues towards it and/or inconsistent behaviour from previous games will get lynched. I am not sure about Jayme yet. Will be back with more.
The way I use my following votes will be both clue based and behaviour based depending on the strength of the evidence with that particular vote. My votes should align mostly with the general sentiment of the town unless I sense a bs/bandwgon vote led by mafia.
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On May 20 2009 05:08 Jimtudor wrote:
As of now, the day 1 lynch will be an inactive or de facto inactive player. The one with the strongest logical clues towards it and/or inconsistent behaviour from previous games will get lynched. I am not sure about Jayme yet. Will be back with more.
The way I use my following votes will be both clue based and behaviour based depending on the strength of the evidence with that particular vote. My votes should align mostly with the general sentiment of the town unless I sense a bs/bandwgon vote led by mafia.
Any chance on you telling us which name you sent to Pyhrry? Or haven't you done that yet?
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EPT
