EPTTL Mafia 5 [Game Over] - Page 40
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ahswtini
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
On March 20 2009 20:50 Bockit wrote: Something about Caller too. If he is mafia, it means one of the 4 candidates BC, SOG, Pyrr or MBH are mafia. Why? The only reason for him to cancel his election is to get another mafia player into power. There are huge, huge positives for having a mafia player in that position of power (Rolechecks show up as sheriff/mayor and not mafia), so the only reason I can come up with for him to pull out like that would be to instead get another of the mafia players into office. Which means we should look at who he voted for, and who else voted for them. Keep in mind this only matters if he flips red, but if he does, then yeah, we might catch a crapload of mafia. EDIT: Editing because I refuse to triple post: Hahahahaha. He voted for MBH, which is coincidentally who I voted for. Teach me to hit submit before checking these things. I guess it's possible he voted off the mafia train so as to lessen the suspicion on himself aftr pulling out of the election. Again this is all relevant only if Caller is in fact mafia. If Caller is Mafia and pulled out because one of the other running candidates was also a Mafia we have to look at who his votes would be taking away from. I think it's safe to say if he was a mafia pull-out it's less likely that BC was the Mafia member he was puling out to make sure got in. BC was in a very clear lead at that point and prettymuch only the Mayor position was in question. Two mafia eleceted is better than one. MBH was not in the running at the time if I recall correctly. Which leaves Pyrrhuloxia and myself. We were pretty close in the voting all along, so Caller dropping out could very well have made a difference in potentially giving one of us or the other a slight edge to get in there. The difference between me being elected over him was only by one vote, and I had gotten two votes late in the day. Therefore if I flip over red I'd be suspicious of the couple late votes put on me as well as any switches from Pyrrhuloxia (I know there was one changed from him to BC fairly late, I'd have to go back and check to see who). Also CyanMachae switched his vote from BC to me pretty late too. Keep in mind there were other Candidates at that point who were trying to run as well, but just never got much support or momentum. Nemy was one of them... there were others, I'll have to go back to check that as well. Of course a lot of this suspicion is mostly under query if Caller flips over red. | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
On March 20 2009 21:59 Caller wrote: Firstly, I will admit that I have been very busy recently with exams. They are finished now so I can pay more attention. Secondly, I will also say that the reason I quit my campaign was that I had these exams, and felt there was no point in running without an effective campaign. Thirdly, I had a grand total of one vote. If I were mafia, I would most likely have more votes: after all, having started running before the roles, I could have a good reason for my innocence (ala aces game). The one vote also wouldn't help a mafia mayor get elected:p Although I will admit that my behavior is much different this round, I have a good reason for it. One vote could have helped, as there was only a one vote separation between second and third places. I believe it was motbob who voted for you and then eventually switched to Pyrrhuloxia once you withdrew from running. | ||
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Caller
Poland8075 Posts
On March 21 2009 04:21 semioldguy wrote: One vote could have helped, as there was only a one vote separation between second and third places. I believe it was motbob who voted for you and then eventually switched to Pyrrhuloxia once you withdrew from running. The person that voted for me was malongo. I'm not too sure why, and he ended up voting for Pyrrhuloxia. But here's my thinking: if I was mafia, why would I want to cancel my campaign? First of all, it draws attention to me. Second of all, I could use the fact that I started the campaign as a way to continue the campaign, i.e. "chance I am mafia is lower because I ran before the roles." Third of all, I have actual Mayor (well... pardoner) experience. I would thus know how to imitate a townie mayor, and that would be another reason for me to run. We are speculating way too much on "what if" I am mafia, and then deriving what that means from there. The problem is, firstly, I am not mafia (although everybody would say that) and secondly, there is no evidence whatsoever that points in my direction. Granted, my behavior may have appeared to have changed, but that was mostly due to my exams, on Wednesday, which both reduced by availability and impaired my ability to run a campaign (which is why I withdrew). In both cases, this speculation is going nowhere, unless I do flip mafia, in which case then one could discuss the possible implications of this. If anything, right now I think the Scara/Mandalor accusations bear some merit (the Pika Chu thing, as many people said, relies on first day clue analysis, which is just a terrible idea). However, I also urge caution about too much speculation: often somebody brings up something that gets buried by speculation that later turns out to be very accurate. In addition, we might want to look at persons like RoL whom are inactive yet at the same time are usually very active. We also might want to see if clues relate to RoL in any way. | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
Here is a series of PMs exchanged before the game started: + Show Spoiler + From: Caller Subject: Re: mafia vote Date: 3/12/09 09:47 i'm way too old/lazy/busy for this lololol i'm not actually intent on running i'm just trolling this time hahahahaha ----------------------------------------- Original Message: My vote for mayor goes to the person who gets the most TL staff/former TL staff to join the game. BC is already ahead of you! (Kennigit and Rage) Dunno, I just want more people who will be active and it seemed like an easy way to decide who to vote for in the mayor race while I'm at it. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: lol what ----------------------------------------- Original Message: The person running who recruits the most staff members for the game (MoC and Bockit don't count) gets my vote. Sound fun? Basically I was telling him I would give my vote to the person who recruited the most staff members. The key thing to notice here is that he says that he isn't planning on actually running. Then Caller makes this post: On March 17 2009 12:12 Caller wrote: Game started, I got my role. I continue my campaigning efforts for Sheriff. Which seemed pretty suspicious to me. He continued to campaign for another 4 or 5 pages before making this post: On March 18 2009 04:27 Caller wrote: Due to being really, really, lazy, I'm withdrawing my candidacy for Sheriff. So I sent him this PM: + Show Spoiler + From: Caller Subject: Re: mafia vote Date: 3/18/09 05:01 BW lol ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Haha what took you so long to withdraw? Basically a cop-out. This behavior seems pretty suspicious to me. However, this should still be considered a lower priority case than Mandalor or Scaramanga. It is something to consider for later though. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
Scaramanga: From the analysis: dumb as hell town/mafia. Just to let all BGs know. DO NOT ROLECLAIM. If one of the elected persons are mafia, they will kill the BGs in order to kill the other elected official. BC/SoG are people we cannot trust as they cannot be role-checked to confirm their allegiance. Mandalor: definitely has merit, but I think the evidence against scara is greater and I think lynching Scaramanga, being the "bad mafia player" he is, would benefit regardless: either dead dumb town, or dead mafia. Please Scara, don't take this harshly ^_^. Caller: Somewhat suspicious, but I think his counter-argument can be seen as legit. This for now keeps malongo off as well. LucasWoJ: For everyone to know, it's Page 23-24. And yes, I have some doubt depending whether or not mandalor flips town/mafia. Also, in the previous 2 mafia games I've played with him, I want to say he actively PM'd many people just to talk/chat. I believe he was townie in both. However this game, he seems rather quiet in PMs. Can anyone else vouch for the previous 2 games' PM behavior? 0cz3c: Also rather weird behavior because previously, he was like a random chaos generator. But then again, he's brought forth an argument in the fact that he's toned it down cause it wasn't working well. But yeah, he's being more subtle this game. Anyway, out of your suspect list, if I had to choose one person, I suppose it'd be LucasWoJ. I'm going to come up with a few suspects myself so the town can analyze more stuff. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
1) MrBabyHands. Never played with the guy, but his debut is definitely something. Just because his unwavering attitude and calling out people in mega-behavioral analysis has me a little confused. He's like an insane psychologist or obsessive police cop or something, lol. 2) Camlito. He's finally posted, so my suspicion has been lifted slightly. But I think he's generally quiet so not much so say. 3) Random voters voting with no particular reasoning. Teejing Page14. Tricode Page18. 3Lions, ahswtni. Also, CynanMachae, but less likely since he switched votes. 4) Lurker. Random sheriff post Page9. Iunno, anyone have thoughts on these people? | ||
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rredtooth
5459 Posts
I think we should seriously consider whether RoL was genuinely surprised to find himself lynched or whether mafia are just trying to keep a low profile and faking inactivity. My guess: he's faking it. Look: Ok. So you log on TL and the first thing you see is that you have a PM. Whether you previously remembered you were in the mafia game or not doesn't matter because that shining "1" in the top left corner is going to alert you that your role has arrived. There's nobody on this forum that has enough patience to NOT check what role you got. So RoL checks and sees that he's mafia. If you're mafia (or any special role for that matter) then you are going to be actively watching the game progress whether you participate or not. The only explanation is the one he gave us - "work" - but he also admitted (probably because SoG could find out anyways) that he did post in 2 "random" posts. Yet, if you really think about it, the organized mafia could easily turn "20 pages to go through" into a quick 5 minute debriefing. OK. Let's go through your though process one more time. Let's also pretend you really were AFK. You just got killed off (the first mafia to be killed) and you decide to take the high road and not complain. I'm sure you would want your team to win regardless of whether you are still alive or not so you decide to read through the rest of the posts. You somehow read through all of that and arrive at the SoG's whole "I'm going to go random on this" and post a response. Yet you somehow did all this within 5 minutes (check the time stamps). This isn't the first time you read through giant amounts of content and produced a related response. Check out his first "back from work" post: Understandable response to being killed. As a matter of fact, would be the logical first thing you post after being killed off. But within three minutes he made another post about how he wasn't "going to complain" (see the first quote) making a reference to Ace's post and once again proving he has a 3000 wpm reading speed. You could argue that he read through all of the content before posting but then what explains his three consecutive posts? Explanation: I think he was very much active, mafia are organized, and he tried to feign inactivity. He made the three posts to sound genuinely surprised, much like a real innocent/honest person would. The only problem was that the three posts were much to fast and close together. You may be wondering what use this observation has. To answer this question honestly: I'm not really sure. Just popped in my mind and thought someone might interpret it a bit better. It may mean that mafia are keeping some people intentionally quiet as to keep a low profile. I'm sure most of the mafia have popped up by now so we should keep an eye out for the people who are acting significantly quieter than expected (Scaramanga is in my sights). Regardless, it would be interesting to see who made their genuine first post AFTER Chuiu's Night Post. People like Rice, Night[Mare, blue_arrow, and Camlito come to mind. Anybody up for making an official list? | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
I think what we can gather from it are two things: 1.) Mafia is definitely active if we assume RoL was really afk. That means some of them are reading the thread and updating everyone else accordingly. If we go with this idea, it's best to check who posted around the time SoG revealed his lynch like you said. 2.) RoL was active and feigned inactivity. Let's go with the idea that once they are caught they pop out the woodworks all of a sudden. This means their are some mafia laying low. But RoL is usually active so why would he go against his normal behavior? If so, is there any other suspicious person that is really playing very opposite their normal abilities? My guess would be to look for someone who is usually behind the scenes and quiet that's posting more than they normally would. | ||
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Caller
Poland8075 Posts
On March 21 2009 07:04 Ace wrote: Really good observation redtooth. I think what we can gather from it are two things: 1.) Mafia is definitely active if we assume RoL was really afk. That means some of them are reading the thread and updating everyone else accordingly. If we go with this idea, it's best to check who posted around the time SoG revealed his lynch like you said. 2.) RoL was active and feigned inactivity. Let's go with the idea that once they are caught they pop out the woodworks all of a sudden. This means their are some mafia laying low. But RoL is usually active so why would he go against his normal behavior? If so, is there any other suspicious person that is really playing very opposite their normal abilities? My guess would be to look for someone who is usually behind the scenes and quiet that's posting more than they normally would.  | ||
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ahswtini
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
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Malongo
Chile3472 Posts
all the points argued in the thread until now were relative to: a way to create a 100% trusted public man, or a way to make sure vigi hits/medic protection dont overlap. About the first i came quite early that it was not possible so all the plans proposed about a vigi hit on mafia or a medic protecting had not only big holes but waste resources for the town. About the second point its clear that again theres not too much to do, *maybe vigi pre calling hits could be good but honestly that is more of a preference of the player. If i was a vigi i would just send my hit silently to a non-voter inactive player. I started the game voting caller blindly. I never pmd him and he never asked anything. I had the early choice to support BC but i simply chose caller because he worked a lot when he was in the office in AMW. As the votes start to pile in caller posts that he doesnt want to run anymore and i changed to phirrhuloxia, again i had nothing against sog and bc but at least phirr seemed to be interested in clue analisis, something that the other players didnt. Thats all about my voting pattern that makes me suspicious. | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
On March 21 2009 06:39 redtooth wrote: Ok. So you log on TL and the first thing you see is that you have a PM. Whether you previously remembered you were in the mafia game or not doesn't matter because that shining "1" in the top left corner is going to alert you that your role has arrived. There's nobody on this forum that has enough patience to NOT check what role you got. Lol... this is never the case for me. I rarely check all my new PMs immediately because a lot of them are either Fantasy Starcraft related or people asking about progaming shirts or why they haven't gotten theirs yet or how long it's going to take, etc. I wish I had a shining "1" because then I wouldn't have to read any complaints :p | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
 109 PMs just this past week  | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On March 21 2009 08:00 semioldguy wrote: Though an understandable assumption otherwise 109 PMs just this past week you need a secretary, probably a hot chick | ||
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Tricode
United States538 Posts
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Night[Mare
Mexico4793 Posts
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nemY
United States3119 Posts
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0cz3c
United States564 Posts
"Bodyguards are only drawn from green townies. Rationally speaking, it's plain stupid and a newbie move for a legit BG to come forth and privately tell the sheriff that he's a BG (no gain considerable risk). Scaramanga is not a newbie. He may have done this impulsively, yes, that is true. But this would totally conflict with every other part of this analysis. For Scara's side or not, there is another person who roleclaimed BG but I don't know who it is. This is a lot of evidence already, but oh yes there is more." You also mentioned that I am a suspect for saying that he does not qualify as one of the twelve experienced members. It wasn't that I was trying to disqualify Ace's plan (that is to say, immediately after I had posted that, you responded, and it seemed that you assumed I didn't understand Ace's plan (I did)); it was more out of principle. I'll explain why. In order to do this, it's best to look at the above quote from your post. I think you're flawed in what you're saying. "Scaramanga is not a newbie. He may have done this impulsively, yes, that is true. But this would totally conflict with every other part of this analysis." You're dead wrong here. I've played in two games with this guy, and I have come to the conclusion that there can be a no more impulsive player in this game. Quite frankly, he's an idiot. He's disrespectful, and, in my opinion, he has served nothing but as a waste of time in this past several games. He not once let me have a civil PM with him, mainly because of the way I decided to post in the thread (and also send out PMs to all). That was unacceptable. Everyone else, whether they were new or experienced, were not this rash, this impulsive. Simply put, I agree entirely with your analysis with the exception of this point. He is that impulsive. He is that stupid. He's played the game for so long, but he's still characterized in my book as a guy who is willing to be bend the rules to win (he was willing to check roles several games ago by logging into others accounts -- that to me is unexcusable). Therefore, my conscience, by principle, I had to say that he doesn't belong on that list. It would have been a disgrace to place him that. That's simply all. It was more of a passing point (and I guess a snipe at him, so I apologize). I'm not trying to take him off the spotlight; in fact, if it were up to me, he would be killed at the start of every game, so that his nuisance would not obstruct the integrity of the game. That, however, is unfeasible. All I'm trying to do is question that which you consider to be rock solid. You're welcome. If people, in the expectation that there are irretrievably infallible, post their behavior analysis of every person they suspect to be mafia, and we follow through with those words, I'd be a little afraid. In fact, I'd get incredibly suspicious. You mentioned that you think I subtly try to cause confusion; no, I'm trying to make sure that we're not wrong, because, if that is not done, then we might as well just follow through with semioldguy's initial kill (simply use a random generator every day for lynching). Edit: Thank you for a useful post, redtooth! I've been waiting for one since about page 20! | ||
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