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TL Mafia 5 [Game Over] - Page 39

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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semioldguy
Profile Blog Joined January 2007
United States7488 Posts
March 20 2009 08:30 GMT
#761
On March 20 2009 16:59 blue_arrow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 20 2009 12:56 Bockit wrote:
On March 20 2009 12:48 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
On March 20 2009 12:43 Ace wrote:
On March 20 2009 12:32 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
dreamflower, i like the idea of betrayal regarding the man that helped Chuiu up and then stabbed him. Why would Chuiu, the sheriff and hardened crime fighter, accept the help up from a criminal? It could be someone he recognized or knew that betrayed him by siding with the mafia. So we should keep an eye in the day posts for someone that kills in a deceitful way, by tricking his victims into thinking he is going to help them.

I suggested a possible clue link from the 4th mafia that stayed behind, waiting for Incognito, to the name "Lurker." It sort of fits, but I want to bring it up again so others can see it.

Also: what kind of person could run with their hands behind their head and also grab a gun and throw it to the side? Perhaps someone who is very "Versatile." It's possible but i don't think Chuiu usually writes clues like that. I'd imagine that mafioso to be hinting towards some kind of animal, like a monkey, or someone with multiple appendages.


If it helps Versatile is also synonymous with being ambidextrous. However for both their hands to be behind their head, and then grab something suggests another pair of hands doesn't it?


Yeah I agree that the clue definitely suggests some extra body part or force being used. Versatile's name just jumped out to me on the list when I was thinking about that particular mafioso.

On March 20 2009 12:44 redtooth wrote:
On March 20 2009 12:39 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Yeah I see pikachus and lions put their hands behind their heads all the time don't you

edited to show how dumb day 1 clue analysis is. its good work you guys are doing but i don't know if it will produce any results. i'm going to sleep now.


hahah excellent point. Don't worry, eventually someone will say the gladiator link in my profile is a clue because a mafioso killed someone with a knife (oh if only MidnightGladius was playing)


Was it a sharp knife? Might be blue_arrow imo.


how come whenever somebody gets killed by something sharp, or whenever something is described as sharp, people always point to me?

this superficial connection has been made in almost every single mafia game I've been in =p

Did you say "Point to [you]"?? Arrow have points, right?
Moderator
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
March 20 2009 08:43 GMT
#762
I guess day post will be in the morning. He's got a lot of clue writing to do I imagine.
Ver
Profile Joined October 2008
United States2186 Posts
March 20 2009 09:11 GMT
#763
On March 20 2009 16:59 blue_arrow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 20 2009 12:56 Bockit wrote:
On March 20 2009 12:48 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
On March 20 2009 12:43 Ace wrote:
On March 20 2009 12:32 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
dreamflower, i like the idea of betrayal regarding the man that helped Chuiu up and then stabbed him. Why would Chuiu, the sheriff and hardened crime fighter, accept the help up from a criminal? It could be someone he recognized or knew that betrayed him by siding with the mafia. So we should keep an eye in the day posts for someone that kills in a deceitful way, by tricking his victims into thinking he is going to help them.

I suggested a possible clue link from the 4th mafia that stayed behind, waiting for Incognito, to the name "Lurker." It sort of fits, but I want to bring it up again so others can see it.

Also: what kind of person could run with their hands behind their head and also grab a gun and throw it to the side? Perhaps someone who is very "Versatile." It's possible but i don't think Chuiu usually writes clues like that. I'd imagine that mafioso to be hinting towards some kind of animal, like a monkey, or someone with multiple appendages.


If it helps Versatile is also synonymous with being ambidextrous. However for both their hands to be behind their head, and then grab something suggests another pair of hands doesn't it?


Yeah I agree that the clue definitely suggests some extra body part or force being used. Versatile's name just jumped out to me on the list when I was thinking about that particular mafioso.

On March 20 2009 12:44 redtooth wrote:
On March 20 2009 12:39 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Yeah I see pikachus and lions put their hands behind their heads all the time don't you

edited to show how dumb day 1 clue analysis is. its good work you guys are doing but i don't know if it will produce any results. i'm going to sleep now.


hahah excellent point. Don't worry, eventually someone will say the gladiator link in my profile is a clue because a mafioso killed someone with a knife (oh if only MidnightGladius was playing)


Was it a sharp knife? Might be blue_arrow imo.


how come whenever somebody gets killed by something sharp, or whenever something is described as sharp, people always point to me?

this superficial connection has been made in almost every single mafia game I've been in =p


I like how this is your first post.

Silent mafia much?
Liquipedia
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
March 20 2009 09:36 GMT
#764
On March 20 2009 18:11 Ver wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 20 2009 16:59 blue_arrow wrote:
On March 20 2009 12:56 Bockit wrote:
On March 20 2009 12:48 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
On March 20 2009 12:43 Ace wrote:
On March 20 2009 12:32 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
dreamflower, i like the idea of betrayal regarding the man that helped Chuiu up and then stabbed him. Why would Chuiu, the sheriff and hardened crime fighter, accept the help up from a criminal? It could be someone he recognized or knew that betrayed him by siding with the mafia. So we should keep an eye in the day posts for someone that kills in a deceitful way, by tricking his victims into thinking he is going to help them.

I suggested a possible clue link from the 4th mafia that stayed behind, waiting for Incognito, to the name "Lurker." It sort of fits, but I want to bring it up again so others can see it.

Also: what kind of person could run with their hands behind their head and also grab a gun and throw it to the side? Perhaps someone who is very "Versatile." It's possible but i don't think Chuiu usually writes clues like that. I'd imagine that mafioso to be hinting towards some kind of animal, like a monkey, or someone with multiple appendages.


If it helps Versatile is also synonymous with being ambidextrous. However for both their hands to be behind their head, and then grab something suggests another pair of hands doesn't it?


Yeah I agree that the clue definitely suggests some extra body part or force being used. Versatile's name just jumped out to me on the list when I was thinking about that particular mafioso.

On March 20 2009 12:44 redtooth wrote:
On March 20 2009 12:39 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Yeah I see pikachus and lions put their hands behind their heads all the time don't you

edited to show how dumb day 1 clue analysis is. its good work you guys are doing but i don't know if it will produce any results. i'm going to sleep now.


hahah excellent point. Don't worry, eventually someone will say the gladiator link in my profile is a clue because a mafioso killed someone with a knife (oh if only MidnightGladius was playing)


Was it a sharp knife? Might be blue_arrow imo.


how come whenever somebody gets killed by something sharp, or whenever something is described as sharp, people always point to me?

this superficial connection has been made in almost every single mafia game I've been in =p


I like how this is your first post.

Silent mafia much?

Is it really? Maybe I'm just confused because redtooth has been talking a lot and he is another one that comes up when "sharp" does.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-03-20 10:19:01
March 20 2009 09:59 GMT
#765
EDIT: Wrong thread.
rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5460 Posts
March 20 2009 11:30 GMT
#766
On March 20 2009 18:59 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
EDIT: Wrong thread.

lol no edit rule still applies. else people can claim "wrong thread" every time they jack something up. when's morning?
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
Ver
Profile Joined October 2008
United States2186 Posts
March 20 2009 11:38 GMT
#767
As I believe there's a high chance I will die tonight (medics, mafia, prove me wrong), I'm going to make as much information public as I can.

Up on the guillotine next is Scaramanga.

This analysis rests on many points and can only be wrong if an incredible strong of coincidences have ocurred. I hate having to make these so long and indepth but a) I want to everyone to see how it's done so they can emulate it with other suspects and b) the town this game has frankly been quite stupid overall and I don't want random questioning of something that is very concrete or worse, people ignoring it (quite possibly mafia driven). Here it goes:

1) Scaramanga is normally a very active person. In BC's game he was active all game both publically and privately when he was a green townie. However, in Caller's game, where he was a jack, he stayed publically silent in an effort to lay low (only jack). This was noticed and he died first day. This game is very much the same. Scaramanga has only posted a simple vote for BC and then a few times more after a certain incident happened and his name came up. More on that later.

2) Because Scaramanga's public silence just proves him being either blue or red, it is of course not sufficient to stop here. What's interesting is that because of either a mistake by himself or by Chuiu (we can't know), Scara cannot be blue. This is because he roleclaimed BG to BC before BG roles should have been passed out (more later).

Bodyguards are only drawn from green townies. Rationally speaking, it's plain stupid and a newbie move for a legit BG to come forth and privately tell the sheriff that he's a BG (no gain considerable risk). Scaramanga is not a newbie. He may have done this impulsively, yes, that is true. But this would totally conflict with every other part of this analysis. For Scara's side or not, there is another person who roleclaimed BG but I don't know who it is. This is a lot of evidence already, but oh yes there is more.

3) While Scaramanga has been quiet in public, he has been quite active behind the scenes. We can safely rule out external factors for his inactivity through this. Now here is the proof:

I msg'ed Scar to get more information on this matter. Here's the response I got:

[Scara] honestly i havent read the thread at all, ive been busy with school and any free time is normally put into homework or sc

-----------------------------------------
Original Message: [Ver]
Hey where have you been? Thread's been pretty desolate and we need your activity. Were you out of town or something and had to just vote BC and run off?

I want to hear your thoughts on Caller and Malongo. Caller's been strange though he might not have the time because he has finals. You worked with him behind the scenes in BC's game when he was quieter too so you might have some ideas here.

Malongo is kinda questionable and is a pretty weird character. But at the same time he's hard to read for me so while I'm suspicious I have much certainty.


Now consider these facts:

-He has been messaging BC nonstop on msn. Clearly he has the time, clearly he's interested. In fact he has so much time he's going through crazy efforts to set up a wow account.
-He was so up to date with the thread that he messaged BC that he was his bodyguard before the roles were supposed to be sent out (again, whether Chuiu or Scara messed up is completely unknown. Don't assume anything here, focus on the stuff we can know).

Thus, it is abundantly clear that he lied to me in a cop out response. While townies do lie sometimes, he has no reason to lie here.


4) The moment BC revealed that BGs couldn't have been given yet, Scara immediately went silent. If he was innocent, he has no reason to do this. He can just say "well Chuiu made a mistake tehn cause I'm BG." But he didn't. He knew he was caught (or had some crazy coincidental emergency). Furthermore, he did not come back. BC says that Scar talks to him every few minutes, making a long break like this extremely strange. Something doesn't add up and it should be pretty obvious at this point.


5) Finally, there was a particular incident in the thread. Ace had labeled Scara as part of the 'Zodiac Braves,' one of twelve townies to get protection. However, Scara tried to downplay this. In Ace's words:

Ace wrote:Look at Scaras last post. He pretty much "tried to take himself off the list" saying he isn't that good. Ozc also backed him on that but we know to take anything he does for now lightly. [my edit: not true 0zc3c, is definitely a suspect for doing that]

I specifically said in that post these are the people I WOULD target if I were mafia. So Scara shouldn't even be feeling any kind of way about being on the list. It's suspicious he'd even want to be taken off of it as any legit townie on that list is actually being protected by being on it.


Ace has a very good point: the only reason Scar should need to say anything would be if he was mafia. If he was green, why bother (and he'd be active). If he was blue, he'd want the protection the list afforded him. If he was mafia...he wouldn't want to be singled out. Guess which is the odd one out.

Summary: Yes, there is a possibility that Chuiu just messed up and Scara is an innocent somehow flagged in an absurd number of coincidences. However, the far likelier story is that he is just mafia and has messed up in so many ways.

BC can post the logs if necessary (sorry I had just reinstalled pidgin and apparently it doens't come with autologging).
Liquipedia
Bockit
Profile Blog Joined November 2004
Sydney2287 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-03-20 11:39:47
March 20 2009 11:38 GMT
#768
I asked him to edit it out because the post was a spoiler from the Bisu vs Fantasy game that belonged in the live report thread.

EDIT:

Irony heh?

This was at Redtooth's post.

Wow ver, you posted that in like a second. Reading now!
Their are four errors in this sentance.
Ver
Profile Joined October 2008
United States2186 Posts
March 20 2009 11:39 GMT
#769

(Double posted into parts more manageable because I don't want everyone to run away in fear from my essay posts)

Here is my Mandalor analysis because I'm pretty sure most people haven't read it yet. If you haven't, DO SO. I'm sick of the town ignoring the important stuff (cluecheck material, suspects, Ace's plan) and focusing on pointless arguments that aren't producing any value, like the day 1 clues or the endless vigi debate.

Show nested quote +
Earlier post:On this note, I bring to you all another suspect from the investigations of mrbabyhands and myself....Mandalor!

You guys have all seen mrbabyhand's first analysis of Mandalor. Mandalor's latest post is just adding fuel to the fire and I'll let him dissect that. Mandalor, however, already slipped up in an earlier post. How are you going to worm out of this now? "New104 is a bodyguard" yeah uh huh right...

Mandalor wrote: I was killed because of this [behavior analysis] when I was innocent in Ace's game while I heavily contributed for the town in Chuiu's (I think it was) 3rd game when I was mafia.


(brackets + italics are my adding).

The first part is true, the second is a blatant lie. Mandalor never contributed to the town when he was mafia, and furthermore his second statement was a mafia point. Using false evidence to make a point for the mafia...I wonder.

This is Mandalor's history:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Game 2- Mafia. Tried to fake DT, Ace tricked him in a rolecheck test and died at first lynch.

Game 3- Townie. This game he contributed quite a bit to the town with his own plan and actively debated suspects and ideas. Because of this, the mafia killed him off night 2. This is the only game where he actively contributed publically.

Ace's game- Townie. Stayed silent but was active. At the end of game 3 (before Ace's game began) he said he would be lying low to avoid being killed off early again. He fit my pattern of a previous contributer trying to hide as an inactive while being mafia, and I killed him second lynch.

Chuiu's previous aborted game- Medic. Just voted and tried to lay low so he wouldn't get killed.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3 points against him in my own analyses:

1) He lied. His lie was trying to prove a mafia point. This point was to cast doubt on mrbabyhand's statement claiming that certain players were innocent because they were dissecting strategies. Mandalor wanted to show that mafia had contributed heavily to town strategy discussion. He just didn't realize that he couldn't use himself as an example.

2) He is attacking mrbabyhand's analyses with mafia reasoning: casting doubt on valid statements while adding nothing new.

3) He no longer fears mafia death, a direct switch from his previous 2 games as a town role.

Notice how in all of his history, he was only mafia once and in that game he died immediately after staying silent until the last minute; the complete opposite of what he claimed. I suppose it's possible that he somehow forgot that he never did what he claimed as mafia (lol).

Of course it's far more likely that he's lying because he's mafia trying to manipulate the town: after mrbabyhand's post asserting those people innocent he wants to make the town suspect those who were contributing to strategy discussion. The only reason I'd be questionable of my own logic is that it's such a huge and obvious blunder that a careful mafia shouldn't ever make. But I think his obvious motivations and the simple fact that mafia do slip up makes it a pretty convincing argument. And there's more.

As shown by the game history, when a town role, he's switched his style to that of lying low to avoid being killed early. In Ace's and Chuiu's latest game he basically didn't say anything and just voted. In this game, however, he spoke out immediately and was not afraid to make himself a possible mafia target. Maybe he got sick of staying silent early? Maybe he saw something that he alone could correct?

However, I think it's because he saw something that was true, and pointed out something bad for the mafia (mrbabyhand's statement of how the mafia weren't participating in strategy discussion). This first came to my attention because Mandalor now is speaking without fear of death. That fear of mafia death made him stay absolutely silent the previous 2 games (up until he was to be lynched). Now he's speaking freely. I wonder if he's doing this because he doesn't fear the mafia anymore hmm.

Honestly, the evidence against him is huge and the only reason we should lynch anyone else for day 1 is if they admit their guilt.



Thus town needs to lynch Mandalor and Scaramanga in whatever order they feel like it. I personally suggest leaving them both available and just letting the people decide. Other person is vigi'ed or lynched the next day.

My suspect list (debate, analyze them people!):

Caller (Out of character behavior. Bandwagon voting babyhands because ace/i did? A bad campaign that got canceled? No other activity?)
Malongo (linked with Caller)
LucasWoJ (Disagrees with mrbabyhands to back up Mandalor)
0zc3c (subtly casts doubt . Subtly tries to keep Scaramanga from the spotlight)

Good luck. Hopefully I'm not dead, but precautions must be made in case.
Liquipedia
Bockit
Profile Blog Joined November 2004
Sydney2287 Posts
March 20 2009 11:46 GMT
#770
Ok I just read the whole thing, why not use the double lynch? You've built a considerable case against both, I can't find any real points to disagree on personally on either account, I say go for the double.
Their are four errors in this sentance.
Bockit
Profile Blog Joined November 2004
Sydney2287 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-03-20 11:54:57
March 20 2009 11:50 GMT
#771
Something about Caller too. If he is mafia, it means one of the 4 candidates BC, SOG, Pyrr or MBH are mafia. Why? The only reason for him to cancel his election is to get another mafia player into power. There are huge, huge positives for having a mafia player in that position of power (Rolechecks show up as sheriff/mayor and not mafia), so the only reason I can come up with for him to pull out like that would be to instead get another of the mafia players into office.

Which means we should look at who he voted for, and who else voted for them.

Keep in mind this only matters if he flips red, but if he does, then yeah, we might catch a crapload of mafia.

EDIT: Editing because I refuse to triple post:

Hahahahaha.

He voted for MBH, which is coincidentally who I voted for. Teach me to hit submit before checking these things.

I guess it's possible he voted off the mafia train so as to lessen the suspicion on himself aftr pulling out of the election.

Again this is all relevant only if Caller is in fact mafia.
Their are four errors in this sentance.
MasterOfChaos
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
Germany2896 Posts
March 20 2009 12:05 GMT
#772
This post is entirely based on ver's post, as I haven't read the last pages yet.
scaras PMing BC that he's a bodyguard seems irrantional independent of his role.
If he's a blue it's completely stupid
If he's a green he it might be a plan to draw a hit on himself to protect blues and possibly try to lure out BC in case BC is mafia. But doesn't seem to be well thought out either. Because what use is luring out if nobody knows what you did. The arguing he's not a vet might fit with that plan.
If he's really a BG then either Chuiu made a mistake, or there has beed a missunderstanding. I think we can rule out that case by asking Chuiu.
If he's a mafia I don't really see what he wants to gain from that. It might be an attempt to inflitrate the town leadership, but that doesn't fit together with the current ruleset.
Finally there is the possibility of BC being mafia and lying. But once again I don't see what might be gained from that except a possible green lynch.
So imo the two most probable possibilites are that he's a stupid townie, or a stupid mafia.
LiquipediaOne eye to kill. Two eyes to live.
Camlito
Profile Blog Joined July 2007
Australia4040 Posts
March 20 2009 12:30 GMT
#773
Ok i'm here. Comp was stuffing up and now has completely died and i'm now on a laptop.
sAviOr...
Phrujbaz
Profile Blog Joined September 2008
Netherlands512 Posts
March 20 2009 12:36 GMT
#774
At the risk of beating a dead horse,

I think all vigilantes should call out their hits.

Benefits:

- Chance of confirmed innocent vigilante
- No overlap of vigilante hits
- No wasted detective ability
- Medics will always know that if they save someone he is innocent

Of course it has been pointed out that even if vigilantes don't call their hits they might be able to prove their innocence with the clues. They might still be able to prove their innocence with clues, if they call out their hit, though. Calling out their hit has the additional benefit that they might hit mafia and be 100% confirmed innocent no strings attached. Preventing overlap of hits isn't as crucial as it would be, if kills weren't refunded, but even when refunded, it's better not to overlap as it might cost you a crucial day/night cycle before you can use the refunded kill. If a vigilante calls out a hit, a detective doesn't need to rolecheck or cluecheck on that person, saving them for better use. Finally, since medics now won't protect vigilante targets, only mafia targets, a medic can always 100% be sure that a person they save is innocent. Not 99% (risky) but 100%. That might be able to create some private circles that are good for the town.

Disadvantages

None.

Things that may seem like disadvantages but aren't:

- If the vigilante calls out a hit against an innocent, mafia will know they don't need to hit that person.

Presumably, the vigilante would hit a person that is already suspicious, and there is no need for mafia to hit a person that is suspicious. Just use the kill on someone else and let the town lynch one of their own. So mafia was probably not intending to hit that person in the first place. Even if mafia did intend to hit that person, surprisingly enough, the vigilante calling out the hit in public doesn't give mafia an extra kill point. After all, if they use the kill on someone else, full kill power is used, and the vigilante is 100% confirmed innocent. Assuming mafia don't like to give us 100% confirmed innocents, they are handicapped and cannot use full kill power that night.

- The vigilante will just be killed

First of all, why? The hit will go through regardless of whether the vigilante is killed or not, since he sends it in before calling it out in the thread. After using up his hit, the vigilante is just an ordinary townie. There is absolutely no need for mafia to kill the vigilante. We would LOVE that they kill the vigilante as we would rather lose a townie than a blue. If we confirm the vigilante, they do have to kill him, and again we are happy they are using up KP that can't be used killing a blue.

This only works if all vigilantes do it, though. So we do have to get a consensus going here. Ace, did you revise your position on this yet?
Caution! Future approaching rapidly at a rate of about 60 seconds per minute.
Caller
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Poland8075 Posts
March 20 2009 12:59 GMT
#775
On March 20 2009 20:50 Bockit wrote:
Something about Caller too. If he is mafia, it means one of the 4 candidates BC, SOG, Pyrr or MBH are mafia. Why? The only reason for him to cancel his election is to get another mafia player into power. There are huge, huge positives for having a mafia player in that position of power (Rolechecks show up as sheriff/mayor and not mafia), so the only reason I can come up with for him to pull out like that would be to instead get another of the mafia players into office.

Which means we should look at who he voted for, and who else voted for them.

Keep in mind this only matters if he flips red, but if he does, then yeah, we might catch a crapload of mafia.

EDIT: Editing because I refuse to triple post:

Hahahahaha.

He voted for MBH, which is coincidentally who I voted for. Teach me to hit submit before checking these things.

I guess it's possible he voted off the mafia train so as to lessen the suspicion on himself aftr pulling out of the election.

Again this is all relevant only if Caller is in fact mafia.

Firstly, I will admit that I have been very busy recently with exams. They are finished now so I can pay more attention.
Secondly, I will also say that the reason I quit my campaign was that I had these exams, and felt there was no point in running without an effective campaign.
Thirdly, I had a grand total of one vote. If I were mafia, I would most likely have more votes: after all, having started running before the roles, I could have a good reason for my innocence (ala aces game).
The one vote also wouldn't help a mafia mayor get elected:p
Although I will admit that my behavior is much different this round, I have a good reason for it.
Watch me fail at Paradox: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=397564
Mandalor
Profile Blog Joined February 2003
Germany2362 Posts
March 20 2009 13:11 GMT
#776
I'm not going to argue against your analysis of me again, but just to make this clear: I did not lie when I said I contributed to the town in chuiu's game when I was mafia. Due to the suicidal act later on (Ace didn't trick me, he gave away a DT for my death), I couldn't contribute that much, but I warned town to not elect someone with a possible clue attached to him and I had a quick open discussion about that with Ace. If you don't view that as contribution, fine, but it's not a lie. Why would I even lie about that? I know you guys can read the old thread and some people in this game were also part of the old game.
fusionsdf
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Canada15390 Posts
March 20 2009 14:44 GMT
#777
On March 20 2009 20:30 redtooth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 20 2009 18:59 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
EDIT: Wrong thread.

lol no edit rule still applies. else people can claim "wrong thread" every time they jack something up. when's morning?


yeah only noobs edit postst
SKT_Best: "I actually chose Protoss because it was so hard for me to defeat Protoss as a Terran. When I first started Brood War, my main race was Terran."
Scaramanga
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Australia8090 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-03-20 15:10:21
March 20 2009 14:53 GMT
#778
On March 20 2009 20:38 Ver wrote:+ Show Spoiler +

As I believe there's a high chance I will die tonight (medics, mafia, prove me wrong), I'm going to make as much information public as I can.

Up on the guillotine next is Scaramanga.

This analysis rests on many points and can only be wrong if an incredible strong of coincidences have ocurred. I hate having to make these so long and indepth but a) I want to everyone to see how it's done so they can emulate it with other suspects and b) the town this game has frankly been quite stupid overall and I don't want random questioning of something that is very concrete or worse, people ignoring it (quite possibly mafia driven). Here it goes:

1) Scaramanga is normally a very active person. In BC's game he was active all game both publically and privately when he was a green townie. However, in Caller's game, where he was a jack, he stayed publically silent in an effort to lay low (only jack). This was noticed and he died first day. This game is very much the same. Scaramanga has only posted a simple vote for BC and then a few times more after a certain incident happened and his name came up. More on that later.

2) Because Scaramanga's public silence just proves him being either blue or red, it is of course not sufficient to stop here. What's interesting is that because of either a mistake by himself or by Chuiu (we can't know), Scara cannot be blue. This is because he roleclaimed BG to BC before BG roles should have been passed out (more later).

Bodyguards are only drawn from green townies. Rationally speaking, it's plain stupid and a newbie move for a legit BG to come forth and privately tell the sheriff that he's a BG (no gain considerable risk). Scaramanga is not a newbie. He may have done this impulsively, yes, that is true. But this would totally conflict with every other part of this analysis. For Scara's side or not, there is another person who roleclaimed BG but I don't know who it is. This is a lot of evidence already, but oh yes there is more.

3) While Scaramanga has been quiet in public, he has been quite active behind the scenes. We can safely rule out external factors for his inactivity through this. Now here is the proof:

I msg'ed Scar to get more information on this matter. Here's the response I got:

[Scara] honestly i havent read the thread at all, ive been busy with school and any free time is normally put into homework or sc

-----------------------------------------
Original Message: [Ver]
Hey where have you been? Thread's been pretty desolate and we need your activity. Were you out of town or something and had to just vote BC and run off?

I want to hear your thoughts on Caller and Malongo. Caller's been strange though he might not have the time because he has finals. You worked with him behind the scenes in BC's game when he was quieter too so you might have some ideas here.

Malongo is kinda questionable and is a pretty weird character. But at the same time he's hard to read for me so while I'm suspicious I have much certainty.


Now consider these facts:

-He has been messaging BC nonstop on msn. Clearly he has the time, clearly he's interested. In fact he has so much time he's going through crazy efforts to set up a wow account.
-He was so up to date with the thread that he messaged BC that he was his bodyguard before the roles were supposed to be sent out (again, whether Chuiu or Scara messed up is completely unknown. Don't assume anything here, focus on the stuff we can know).

Thus, it is abundantly clear that he lied to me in a cop out response. While townies do lie sometimes, he has no reason to lie here.


4) The moment BC revealed that BGs couldn't have been given yet, Scara immediately went silent. If he was innocent, he has no reason to do this. He can just say "well Chuiu made a mistake tehn cause I'm BG." But he didn't. He knew he was caught (or had some crazy coincidental emergency). Furthermore, he did not come back. BC says that Scar talks to him every few minutes, making a long break like this extremely strange. Something doesn't add up and it should be pretty obvious at this point.


5) Finally, there was a particular incident in the thread. Ace had labeled Scara as part of the 'Zodiac Braves,' one of twelve townies to get protection. However, Scara tried to downplay this. In Ace's words:

Ace wrote:Look at Scaras last post. He pretty much "tried to take himself off the list" saying he isn't that good. Ozc also backed him on that but we know to take anything he does for now lightly. [my edit: not true 0zc3c, is definitely a suspect for doing that]

I specifically said in that post these are the people I WOULD target if I were mafia. So Scara shouldn't even be feeling any kind of way about being on the list. It's suspicious he'd even want to be taken off of it as any legit townie on that list is actually being protected by being on it.


Ace has a very good point: the only reason Scar should need to say anything would be if he was mafia. If he was green, why bother (and he'd be active). If he was blue, he'd want the protection the list afforded him. If he was mafia...he wouldn't want to be singled out. Guess which is the odd one out.

Summary: Yes, there is a possibility that Chuiu just messed up and Scara is an innocent somehow flagged in an absurd number of coincidences. However, the far likelier story is that he is just mafia and has messed up in so many ways.

BC can post the logs if necessary (sorry I had just reinstalled pidgin and apparently it doens't come with autologging).

All i have to say is check the time that i told bc my role, which was bodyguard and then check what time chuiu admited he fucked up in the thread, you'll see that its atcully before chuius post
Oh and i dont see whats wrong with a friendly hi on msn lol

Edit: mk i read the whole post again and theres a very simple reason for all this, i havent been active, plain and simple, ive read a few posts here and there and have gotten pms about roles. Thats how chuiu screwed up, he said that he wouldnt send the bg roles out to people before the first lynch and he did, with me not being active and seeing bc on msn (can you people stop calling it pms, it sounds like i went out of my way to tell bc exactly what my role was) i told him that i was a bg because i thought he was in a position to know (i blind trust alot, hi ace) and thats why i havent responded to any questions of me, i havent read the thread untill tonight when i was catching up and bc said on msn that i should read here first, im going through now and reading the thread. So yes i am a townie (chuiu took my bg status away for some reason) and idk roleclaiming because mafia cant be that stupid to go for town over suspected blues
You guys are just wayyyyyyyyyy over thinking this,
On March 20 2009 05:35 Chuiu wrote:
Okay listen up! I screwed up and sent out one or more of the Bodyguard role PM's early. Since this may have become an issue I'm removing all the current bodyguards and re-randomizing a new set of them. If you are a Bodyguard before I made this post then disregard that PM unless you receive another from me in a minute or two.

see he did screw up
oh and i downplayed my position on that list of aces because i am a shit mafia player, i'll say it and if you ask bc what i did in his game (oh god) he will confirm that i am very bad
Loda talked about the fun counter, it's AdmiralBulldog on his natures prophet
Scaramanga
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Australia8090 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-03-20 16:09:58
March 20 2009 15:31 GMT
#779
God i waded through like 8 pages of vigi plans, screw that im not reading each of them in dept
people can you do some of this in pm's, msn, irc, letters, memos i dont mind just as long as for people who arnt on this all the time, it takes a while trying to catch up properly T_T
Imo that would be a good idea to get a mafia irc that everyone can join into so you can discuss plans etc

Edit: best song ever ^^


Edit: god the thread just died again, its 3am im going to sleep
Loda talked about the fun counter, it's AdmiralBulldog on his natures prophet
semioldguy
Profile Blog Joined January 2007
United States7488 Posts
March 20 2009 18:50 GMT
#780
On March 20 2009 18:59 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
EDIT: Wrong thread.


was actually....

On March 20 2009 18:59 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
WTF was bisu thinking with this build - Fantasy =/= fOrGG

and then

On March 20 2009 18:59 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
WTF was bisu thinking with this build - Fantasy =/= fOrGG

EDIT TO ADD: wrong thread obviously :'(
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