Whichever is preferred/makes the game better.
[N]A Mostly Normal Game of Mafia
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Trfel
6474 Posts
Whichever is preferred/makes the game better. | ||
Trfel
6474 Posts
On November 14 2020 00:40 GreYMisT wrote: I was assuming this included the mayoral vote, though I suppose I could be wrong.You may not vote for yourself. | ||
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On November 24 2020 05:59 raynpelikoneet wrote: I have to agree with you, that is quite bold indeed Let's be bold and say that TT is town this game. On November 24 2020 08:08 raynpelikoneet wrote: Fair enough, I suppose we'll see eventually.Youre wrong. In other news, I kinda like Alakaslam this game. Which likely means he's mafia, he has a tendency to be the opposite alignment of whatever I think he is If possible, I think it may be wise to control the votes such that all of the votes are on the same person, thus making there no Pardoner as there is no one in second place (or would it then be randomized... so many questions). Though unfortunately that seems very difficult to control, and if it's possible to vote for oneself, it may be worthwhile for mafia to ninja vote because it would take two lynches to eliminate them. Maybe not such a good idea after all. Ah well. Hi all Any thoughts about Alakaslam? | ||
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On November 24 2020 08:30 raynpelikoneet wrote: Well, this should be interesting Care to enlighten us?You know, pretty much everything is so wrong in this post. Obviously my idea about everyone voting for the same target isn't great. I left it in because I found it funny. But other than that, I'm interested in your take on Alakaslam? I'm more than happy to share my reasoning, but I'd like to know what you think first. | ||
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On November 24 2020 08:35 Alakaslam wrote: Yeah, it's a bad idea, but it's funny. That said, I'd say it's fairly likely mafia gets at least one of the two roles (mayor and pardoner) regardless (assuming they want to). Given that they have 2-3 votes in a 10-player game, things would have to go pretty perfectly for them to not be able to take one of the roles if they so desire.I disagree. That gives pardoner to mafia as you say here? What? You are saying you town read me and therefore scum read me? Not good sir collect thoughts or get caught And I'm not scumreading you, it's a town lean. | ||
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On November 24 2020 08:39 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yeah, you're right, I see it in the daypost now. I read everything 2-3 times but still managed to miss it >< Admittedly I was focused on the setup post and not the day post but still. Not sure how I missed it, my apologies.I dont understand why you write a whole paragraph on your idea of everyone voting for the same target, then dismiss it for something mafia would never do. I dont understand why you tell me "well we will see" instead of reading the daypost again and figure out you're actually wrong as i said. Because the daypost clearly says you may vote for yourself for the mayor. Even your paragraph introduces that while you "dont know if it's true or not". Now i dont really know why you are lying in case youre mafia but at best that's just wasted time. I cannot tell Slam's alignment. My gut says he might be town but i really cant read him that well i think. However i don't understand if you read him as town so far how does whatever people say sway your opinion as you said you apparently cant read him aswell? Like I said, I thought it was a funny idea so I didn't bother deleting it. I guess I have a strange sense of humor. I don't think anything people say would change my opinion of Alakaslam, I don't ask to figure out more about Alakaslam's alignment, rather I asked to try and help figure out yours. Your answer isn't particularly helpful, but it's also understandable, so not much was gained. Oh well. For me, Alakaslam's mayor candidacy feels genuine. While I don't necessarily agree with his "pliable" argument, it seems to come from a town perspective. I also like his tone this game, it feels like a good balance between serious and playful, which I think is hard for Alakaslam as scum. I've seen him play both very joking and very serious as mafia, but a balance like shown here is harder to achieve. On November 24 2020 08:40 raynpelikoneet wrote: Slight possibility, no? Given the KP formula in the setup post rather than just saying 1 KP. Why do you think there is 3 mafia? | ||
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On November 24 2020 08:59 raynpelikoneet wrote: As to the second part, I dunno, I didn't really think a ton about it. I just don't count anything 100% out in terms of setup. It doesn't really matter anyway, no?I think i agree with other parts of your post, but why would Slam NOT candidate himself as mayor as mafia? Why would anyone, regardless of alignment, per se not wanna be mayor? really? so mylo D2 if the mayor lynches town? even worse if the mayor/pardoner happens to be mafia.... I am not saying that Alakaslam wouldn't try to make himself mayor as mafia. He likely would. I feel that the way he has gone about it is genuine and towny. | ||
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On November 24 2020 12:51 Grackaroni wrote: Grackaroni, can I ask what the purpose of this post was?I almost never make early reads unless I get the sense that I'm on track to be lynched if I don't start taking stances. I just don't tend to get strong feeling from the first few things people post unless something strikes me as exceptionally out of character or inconsistent. | ||
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Because to me, it seems very out of place. No one asked you for any reads or what you thought about early game reads. It doesn't read like you're defending Hapahauli or his statement, the only relation is that Hapahauli's post is quoted. And to top it off, you threw in a wishy-washy backsies clause at the end. And while me and my microscopic vocabulary had to look up the definition of commiseration, I don't really see how it fits that either, or why that would even be needed here. One point I could forgive, but all together it seems like quite a strange post to me. | ||
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On November 24 2020 14:11 Grackaroni wrote: What hole? (rhetorical) And sure, I get that you're fine with Hapahauli's statement, but it doesn't really warrant defending, and even if it did that would be a really weird way of doing it. Thus, your post was quite pointless.Hapa's statement is fine with me. I understand not being a player who jumps the gun with early conclusions. I'm not sure what you're on about with your backsies clause I was just relating my own experience lol. To be honest I think you're trying to dig yourself out of a hole from how you were percieved earlier. A pointless post doesn't guarantee someone to be mafia, but I'm happy to jump on it for now. I don't think I need anything else from you at the moment, I'll see how you play and continue to evaluate. | ||
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On November 24 2020 14:30 Grackaroni wrote: At this point I'm almost more confused by your reaction than the initial post itself?Rayn called out one of your posts and Slam says you shat on the carpet and all of a sudden you're yelling about my backsies and acting tough. I don't really care about Hapa's post one way or another. If he had said that pre-game I would have responded the same. I'm not yelling and I'm not acting tough, I'm not even being tough? I'm deeply confused here. Though if I did something to upset you, I truly am sorry, that was not my intention at all. | ||
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On November 24 2020 14:43 Grackaroni wrote: If I can help you understand something please let me know and I'll happily try; I guess at this point I was more curious to see what you do from here, I'm not sure if continuing to discuss these points with you at this time will bear much more fruit.Meh that's fine. I don't understand part of your accusation but I think perhaps I misread the end of your post as a bit of showmanship like you're overly playing to an audience. Do you have any thoughts on Alakaslam and/or why I have a town lean on him? | ||
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He said he couldn't read Alakaslam, and then later agreed about leaning town on Alakaslam. And he was suspicious of me for sensible reasons, and then ended up calling me maybe town. It would make sense if he liked my townread of Alakaslam, agreeing with it and then townreading me as well, but (1) would that really be enough to sway him from his initial read in both cases, and (2) he continued to poke at my Alakaslam townread to point out what he perceived as flaws with it. Hm. | ||
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On November 24 2020 15:06 Grackaroni wrote: You basically said "I don't like to make/commit to early reads unless something really sticks out." The "unless something really sticks out" part is the take-back clause, basically like saying "I am like this, unless I'm not." It somewhat invalidates what is being said. It's similar to saying "this person is mafia unless ... " which is really weak because it doesn't have any conclusion.I don't understand what you mean when you say I threw a wishy-washy backsy-clause in my post, though I don't think you understand the intention of my post to begin with. I wasn't weighing in either way on Hapa's alignment. I was just sharing my own feeling about being expected to make early game reads. For your Slam read I don't agree. It seems like Slam is earnestly trying to become mayor but it seems a bit out of character to me. He pretty frequently tries to lynch himself to avoid being in LYLO as town so I don't know why town Slam would want to place extra responsibility on himself to decide the lynch all by himself. I guess I'm then just wondering why you felt the need to share your opinion on early game reads? I don't think anyone was super interested (not that we don't care, it just didn't seem the most relevant at the time, if that makes sense?). That's an interesting point about Alakaslam, I'll have ro think about that. His persistence about the mayor stuff with little substance is giving me pause too. | ||
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On November 24 2020 21:09 Jockmcplop wrote: Hey Jockmcplop! I guess I see what you are saying, I was primarily thinking about the Day 1 lynch aspect of the mayoral role and less about the protection aspect. I'll keep thinking about it.Hi trfel! Can you see how his run might not seem to me to come from a town perspective at all? Sure it looks like it but also you can also just as easily look at it as mafia trying to get free protection without having to risk anything because town gets the blame for the lynch and not slam. On November 24 2020 22:44 Jockmcplop wrote: Honestly, I didn't really expect other people to come up with compelling points that I hadn't thought of. Evidently I was wrong This post is bizarre. He says he doesn't think anything anyone will say will change his opinion of slam. But then later on: Also: Slam's pliable argument IS his entire campaign. Vote for him because he must be town because a vote for him is a vote for whatever town decides, therefore he must be town. I don't see how that comes from a town perspective. Trfel's start is all full of contradictions. He seems ultra confident about slam's tone and then seems to drop that line of thought so easily. I liked Alakaslam's opening, it felt very genuine to me, but his play after that has been rightfully pointed out as more suspicious. On November 25 2020 00:40 Vivax wrote: I forget the exact game, but I do have a specific game in mind. I remember generally scumreading Alakaslam and then the game I townread him, he was mafia. I don't mean that I "like" him in that he's friendly, but rather I liked his play, in that it seemed to come from a town perspective.I think I've seen Slam as scum only once, tops twice. IIRC. Since you have something in mind where this happened, do you remember the game? Or did you just scumread him when he was town. Either way I'm not a fan of this reasoning, mafia sometimes are the friendliest guys in the game, or girls in the case of cop last game. I like the idea to not have a pardoner in the game but would probably not expect it to work. @Alakaslam, why did you initially want to lynch Vivax? Sorry I'm having trouble seeing why. | ||
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Will you be around tomorrow before the deadline? | ||
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On November 25 2020 07:08 raynpelikoneet wrote: As a counterpoint to this, isn't the one game where you failed to catch Vivax as mafia his only recent mafia game? I could be wrong on that, but I remember that game recently where Vivax actually played the game as mafia for one of the first times, and it was significantly different from his previously typical mafia play (which was easily identifiable).I think Vivax is actually reading the game and making at least vivax!reasonable points. I think he is like my nemesis when we are both town (lol), he will probably call me mafia like 100 times this game and i think his conspiracy theories can even ruin the game for the town at times.... But anyways i think there has been like one game pretty much EVER when i have not been able to determine Vivax as mafia -- and very early -- when he has been mafia. He can post stupid ass shit, he can not even make any sense at all but the no matter if the game is 10 pages or 100 pages mafia!Vivax doesn't care to read the thread at all with any insight, period. Pretty much it was the post i asked him about, the Slam thing about Slam trying to make friends with you Hapa. I think it is too convoluted read to make if you are Vivax and play as mafia as Vivax plays as mafia. That's pretty much it, there are some other minor points like him getting and WILLFULLY getting into an argument with you, but the main point is that he is genuinely reading the game more than mafia!Vivax would. Since he's demonstrated his capabilities as mafia, I think that makes him much harder to read, especially early on. I'm just interested in your thoughts on that, and if you included that in your read? | ||
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On November 25 2020 09:17 raynpelikoneet wrote: I don't feel too focused on Vivax's meta? I just know he's a capable scum player, and I don't feel like he's done anything out of that range yet. I'm confident his alignment will become more clear over time, I always think that lynches and deadlines make it much easier to discern players' alignments.I think you are morely focused on Vivax' meta and i am focused on his meta and then idk our worlds collide ffs lol.... :D | ||
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On November 25 2020 09:27 raynpelikoneet wrote: I guess we will have to agree to disagree then. IMO you have to assume someone can play to the top of their scum range, and Vivax has demonstrated at least a decent scum range. Even if typically he hasn't hit that.uh.. then we have a problem. because i dont have him as "capable scum player" at all. I like Vivax's play so far and I'd town lean him I think, but I'm not too confident yet. | ||
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On November 25 2020 09:31 raynpelikoneet wrote: Because you're highly confident he is town, I'm much closer to null but slightly town?I dont understand. Why do we have an argument on Vivax if you agree with me on him? I wouldn't call it an argument, I was just wanting to know where you were coming from. I now understand, even if I don't agree. | ||
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What do you think of me? Given that I was your main scumread earlier (at least, I think? trying to interpret your post, correct me if I'm wrong) and it seems you have forgotten about that in your latest list post. | ||
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On November 25 2020 12:28 Alakaslam wrote: Sorry, I'm back now. Makes enough sense for now, I'll take a look. Still trying to get through everyone's filters.I wasn’t around. I am now if you still are; and there it is scummier still! Nah actually it turned into a TR because of Hapa. You can thank him. So that leaves me sussing TT and Jock | ||
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Why are you suspicious of Hapahauli? | ||
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Town Lean Hapahauli + Show Spoiler [explanation] + Hapahauli has been providing critical thinking and has been very present this game. He's pushing his own ideas (suspicious of Grackaroni). Null Alakaslam + Show Spoiler [explanation] + I admit I've been having some trouble reading Alakaslam this game. My toneread on him suggests that he is town, but his mayoral campaign has been a bit suspect as well. I dunno. The recent game where he was mafia, he just came in and started sharing random thoughts and relevant reads. Here he's been much more joking but still somewhat connected to the thread. But the substance is really lacking. He's shared one suspicion (? if it's even that), one scumread (soon retracted), and one list post. And he said he'd have more time to play so he'd be sharing all his thoughts. Beats me. ShoCkeyy Grackaroni + Show Spoiler [explanation] + I stand by the points earlier about Grackaroni's response to me calling out his post. Even moreso than the initial post, his follow-up felt quite off. However, outside of that I could see Grackaroni being town this game. Really, the main other thing I find notable about his filter is that he hasn't really found anything suspicious, except for possibly my interaction with him (which he never really followed up on since then, only answering questions about it; in other words, he hasn't followed up his read on me, or tried to figure out my alignment since then). Despite having a mayoral campaign, he seems very unconcerned about who he wants to lynch. Tictock + Show Spoiler [explanation] + He hasn't really said much at all. At least he does have a scumread (Fecalfeast), which is more than I can say for some others. But I'm unfortunately not confident in reading him given the low amount of content. Fecalfeast Vivax Mafia Lean Jockmcplop + Show Spoiler [explanation] + I thought there was more in Jockmcplop's filter, but while reading it through again, it's actually quite underwhelming. Jockmcplop presents exactly three ideas:
Jockmcplop's play has been pretty bleh so far. It's not terrible, but unremarkable and lacking the critical thinking, substance, and quality that he usually shows as town. raynpelikoneet + Show Spoiler [explanation] + I'll start this off by saying that raynpelikoneet is very capable as mafia, in my opinion. With that said, he seems to not care a ton about his reads this game, especially his scumreads. It almost feels disconnected. To clarify, I mentioned two points earlier about raynpelikoneet: his read on Alakaslam, and lack of stubbornness. I don't think those are very strong anymore, the timing of his read change on Alakaslam matches, and I will always understand/allow someone trying a different playstyle (given that the change isn't mafia motivated). But his scumreads. First he was suspicious of Hapahauli, but when he was going to bed he posted about his townreads instead. And he didn't really discuss his read on Hapahauli much either. He's explained it of course, but he hasn't been pushing it, which confuses me. Maybe there's some reason why (as town) raynpelikoneet wouldn't want to pursue that at this time, but it's a trend with his other reads too. He is suspicious of ShoCkeyy for being disconnected and not following along (which to me at least is hard to tell, ShoCkeyy has a tendency to not contribute much substance, especially early on). And he is suspicious of Fecalfeast but I don't believe he ever said why. And he's unsure about me and Hapahauli. He later says that his reads are mostly POE, and acknowledges that ShoCkeyy doesn't have reads early on. It just doesn't quite add up for me. He's campaigning to be mayor, but he's not really got any strong scumreads, just a POE. For a player who has been very present and has been sharing his thoughts, working off of a POE with near-instant townreads and not having solid reasons for scumreading lurkers seems very suspect. I need to keep thinking about this but raynpelikoneet feels very present in this game, but uninvolved where it matters. Like he's managed to take a backseat despite constantly posting his thoughts. And I feel that that makes him more likely mafia. Mafia I know, way too many people are null I'm disappointed about it too. I'll be around for the next hour or so and keep thinking about it, if anyone wants to talk. I'd like to reread Vivax too, I feel like I should have a better read on him by this point. | ||
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I feel like I worded that poorly but it's late at night so I'm not sure if I can say it any better right now. Let me know if that doesn't make sense. I think Jockmcplop is likely my top suspect at this time. | ||
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If you're still around I'd be happy to talk, though I'll likely go to sleep soon. What do you think of Jockmcplop? | ||
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On November 25 2020 18:45 Jockmcplop wrote: @First paragraph: I see, sorry I missed that.I thought I made it pretty clear I was more critical of you townreading slam than i was of slam's run. You are exactly right that slam's run *could* be from a town perspective, but my problem was that you immediately assumed it was from a town perspective and didn't even consider the idea that mafia could be doing the same thing for mafia reasons. @Second paragraph: It's the way that Alakaslam was going about his campaign that seemed towny to me, not the fact about it. Mostly a tonal read at first. I do think that the "pliability" argument is more likely to come from town, as (in my opinion) lynch blame doesn't really exist and as a result, it feels a bit strange for mafia to come up with that argument. But the tonal read was the main part of my read. In other news, I really do want you to be town this game But right now, I'm just not seeing it. You feel minimally involved and not very invested. I assume you disagree with my assessment? | ||
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Regardless, I think the lynch should be between (in no particular order) Jockmcplop, ShoCkeyy, Fecalfeast, Tictock, and Grackaroni. I'll try and focus on these people. Maybe less inclined to kill Jockmcplop? As his answer earlier is what I was hoping to hear, and I'm interested to see what he does with more time to play. To filter diving. I'll likely be around for a while. | ||
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I'm still confused as to why everyone is townreading Jockmcplop. I remember someone said it was because of a good point they raised against me, can someone remind me what point they are thinking of? Voted for myself, probably time to do that. | ||
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I like Tictock's push for raynpelikoneet to be mayor (I mean, I don't like it but it seems slightly town-motivated) because it shows that he is here, present, an cares about the game. He didn't really need to do anything, but he's making reads and is invested in them. Fecalfeast's play has been obviously very disconnected, he doesn't even seem to care that there is a decent chance he could be lynched. To be honest I am not sure that he is mafia, but I have no misgivings about lynching him and I'm not sure that he will get easier to read over time. I know that he likes to hide in the background as mafia, and it feels like he is doing that this game. And then there's Grackaroni. I don't like how he came up with so many reads so suddenly after being cautious with his reads earlier. Maybe he is mafia here after all. | ||
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On November 26 2020 04:03 Hapahauli wrote: Yeah, I can get behind that. The main reason I would prefer lynching Fecalfeast to Grackaroni is that if Fecalfeast continues to play in this manner, I'm not sure he will be any easier to read in the future. I have higher hopes for Grackaroni to make his play more clear.I think lynching into TT/FF is a bad idea based on recent posting. Neither of them really have that survivalist instinct that I'd associate with mafia in this position. I once again would like Grack lynched. Outside of that though I guess Grackaroni seems to have a higher chance of flipping mafia. I will submit Grackaroni as the lynch in case I end up being elected. | ||
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On November 26 2020 04:05 raynpelikoneet wrote: Which part, the Jockmcplop or the Fecalfeast part?I thought you were already going back on that, i mean you literally said so. I never went back on my Jockmcplop read. Yes, I changed my mind just now to prefer lynching Grackaroni to Fecalfeast. | ||
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On November 26 2020 04:05 Hapahauli wrote: Just wait until tomorrow, where we have majority voting...This game made me realize how much I hate mayor voting. On November 26 2020 04:05 Vivax wrote: Fair enough. Bleh.Yeah one hour from EoD and at risk of getting lynched. | ||
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On November 26 2020 04:06 raynpelikoneet wrote: Frankly I don't know where I stand on Jockmcplop. When I was excluding him a few posts ago, I didn't mean that he was my #1 lynch target, I simply meant that I was excluding him from my thinking surrounding that process.I meant on Jock. Here you say this. This means he is NOT your preferred lynch target no? | ||
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On November 26 2020 04:08 Trfel wrote: EBWOP: I still scumread Jockmcplop. I don't know where exactly he ranks on my order of who to lynch.Frankly I don't know where I stand on Jockmcplop. When I was excluding him a few posts ago, I didn't mean that he was my #1 lynch target, I simply meant that I was excluding him from my thinking surrounding that process. | ||
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On November 26 2020 04:10 Vivax wrote: Yes, I agree that Grackaroni is enjoyable to play with, and in that sense I'd like to keep him around longer, but I do think he has an okay chance of being mafia here.Trfel I don't really want a Grack lynch. Can we arrange that or do I vote another mayor? Not because he's supertown or anything but I think he's enjoyable to play with. Lynching Shockeyy would also help, because I have a hunch that I'm going to think he's mafia at some point anyway based on past experiences. And now I can't tell what he is. Why allow a pokerface in town? I can take another look at ShoCkeyy, I do think he could be mafia, I guess I would prefer to have reasons why he is mafia before lynching him though. I don't really like lynching people if I can't say why they are mafia. I'm not certain about voting for Grackaroni, we can talk about it, though I don't mind if you want to vote for someone else for mayor either. If you and Hapahauli could agree on someone that would help too. Can I ask what you don't like about the reasons Hapahauli brought up to suspect Grackaroni? | ||
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On November 26 2020 04:31 Fecalfeast wrote: I submitted Grackaroni currently. That said, I definitely do expect more from you in the future.I just followed my preferred candidate to someone I think of as town Is any mayoral candidate NOT likely going to kill me? | ||
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On November 26 2020 04:45 Vivax wrote: I don't think that was Hapahauli's reasoning? Or mine for that matter.+ Show Spoiler + On November 25 2020 23:40 Vivax wrote: I think he just wanted to make a funny entrance. Don't really see him being mafia atm. Shockeyy is always like that. If I'd kill him then not because I think he's scum but because I will never be sure about what he is, probably. Someone mentioned earlier that Jock seemed less analytical than in his usual town games and I'll agree. I also find it odd in his case that he doesn't think Trfel is town given when they have been teammates and imo Trfel doesn't post like in that game (the "Trfel help" one). That said my lynch pool atm would be something along Shockeyy, Jock, Fefe. Maybe TickTock because he kinda stopped playing after getting townread by a few. "He ran for mayor and then stopped caring" is a bad metric. And feels lazy by Hapa. | ||
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On November 26 2020 04:50 Vivax wrote: How about Grackaroni just not having reads this game? Until three hours ago, anyway. Mayoral campaign aside.Yea ok it was about him running without targets. Regardless, the point stands. I think he just posted his candidacy to post his story, not because he actually wanted to be mayor. And Hapa instantly imposes the point of view that he really wanted to run for mayor. He's been here and he hasn't been really contributing much, especially before three hours ago. | ||
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On November 26 2020 04:55 Vivax wrote: ShoCkeyy hasn't really been here, and is (unfortunately) known for not doing much throughout the game, especially Day 1.Oh but Shockeyy and TT did? TT's comeback content can best be described as rushed. Your Tictock point has more merit. I just feel like Grackaroni is scummier than Tictock; Tictock's posts come off a bit townier to me, more genuine. I guess it's a slight tonal thing, I dunno how to explain it in the time before the deadline really. | ||
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Anyway I have a meeting soon but I'll be around later. | ||
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Jockmcplop hasn't accomplished anything this game. He has no scumreads, almost no suspicions even, yet seems very content with this. His words and posts also don't match the (lack of) conclusions he draws from them. In combination with not caring about who is lynched Day 1, Jockmcplop is very likely mafia. | ||
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On November 26 2020 07:58 raynpelikoneet wrote: I get that he hasn't made any single glaring blunder, but he still reads very much like mafia to me. In fact, I'd say that he's made some basic mistakes, in his reads not matching the suspicion he has been throwing (especially towards Alakaslam).I heavily disagree here. | ||
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On November 25 2020 21:38 Jockmcplop wrote: This answer, as to why Jockmcplop felt uninvolved and not very present in the game.No you're exactly right. I haven't had a whole lot of time so far but i'm here all day (minus video game playing time of course) today so you'll get more out of me. It was an answer I expected to hear regardless of alignment but I wanted to see how he said it. The fact that he said he should have more time today and then that wasn't reflected in his play at all is very telling in my opinion. | ||
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Not really confident at all on who else is mafia (regardless of if I am right or not on Jockmcplop), unfortunately. Also, I won't be around for the deadline tomorrow, since it's a night deadline that should be fine though. | ||
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I don't really see Vivax's pursuit of multiple lynch targets as particularly compelling, I suppose. I agree with you that it's improper gameplay for town, but at the same time I could see it coming from town. I'm interested to see what Vivax has to say about it though, I'll let him speak for himself. Maybe I'm being dumb here. As for the incongruencies around Grackaroni, you're saying that Vivax said both: (1) Grackaroni isn't supertown or anything (2) Didn't buy the arguments for Grackaroni being mafia To me, Vivax having effectively a null read of Grackaroni satisfies both of these conditions. He wouldn't want to keep him alive because he's towny, but he still wouldn't want to lynch him because he's not scummy. I'll keep re-evaluating though. | ||
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@Alakaslam, can I ask why you are suspecting Vivax now? Is it based on what Hapahauli said, or other reasons? | ||
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Just got back. Kinda surprised about the Alakaslam kill, but he had a role and I like playing with him so that's disappointing. I'll take another look at the Vivax stuff in a second. | ||
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I suppose technically I could use my pardoner ability to hold town hostage and get the lynch I want but I'll stop tempting myself That's never getting used. Even if I am lynched. | ||
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I guess I don't really see how that's a solved game, given that we have only two lynches? Seems like there's definitely still some work to be done here, unless I'm missing something. | ||
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If anyone wants to talk, let me know. I'm bored | ||
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On November 26 2020 04:24 Tictock wrote: Does this feel weird to anyone else? Tictock was scumreading Fecalfeast and townreading Grackaroni. On one hand, I could see Tictock trying to word his argument in a way that's persuasive to me, but on the other hand, shouldn't he be restating his reasons to scumread Fecalfeast and townread Grackaroni?If you do get elected plz kill FF over Grack. FF is unlikely to suddenly start playing more, Grack is probably readable after enough time On November 26 2020 04:49 Tictock wrote: And this, which Tictock threw in 11 minutes to end of day. If he didn't want Grackaroni to die (by the way, he just said a few posts previously that he was okay with Grackaroni dying), shouldn't he prefer killing Fecalfeast to ShoCkeyy? Given that he actually has reasons to suspect Fecalfeast and ShoCkeyy is just a lurker?Resub FF/Sho? | ||
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I'll take a look at your Fecalfeast stuff in a bit. | ||
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On November 28 2020 07:06 Fecalfeast wrote: About what in particular, if I may? I don't agree with raynpelikoneet about Jockmcplop.I'll be interested to know if you agree with rayn | ||
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On November 28 2020 07:13 Fecalfeast wrote: I'm not sure I understand what raynpelikoneet is saying, unfortunately. But if I am understanding it correctly, he's basically saying that you aren't actually reading the game and are deciding your scumreads at random, and most of the reasons are proofs of this. Unfortunately I don't think that makes you mafia which is disappointing to say.about this right here | ||
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I wouldn't be too sad if Fecalfeast is lynched and I would be willing to consolidate on him but I'd still much prefer Jockmcplop. | ||
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I'll take another look at Vivax's filter. | ||
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On November 25 2020 23:40 Vivax wrote: Vivax, this is an interesting lynch pool. Prior to this you said that Jockmcplop, Fecalfeast, and Tictock were town. I get that your read on Tictock changed because he stopped playing once townread, I'll let that slide. But on Jockmcplop, the reasons seem contradictory? And with Fecalfeast, did your early townread mean nothing?I think he just wanted to make a funny entrance. Don't really see him being mafia atm. Shockeyy is always like that. If I'd kill him then not because I think he's scum but because I will never be sure about what he is, probably. Someone mentioned earlier that Jock seemed less analytical than in his usual town games and I'll agree. I also find it odd in his case that he doesn't think Trfel is town given when they have been teammates and imo Trfel doesn't post like in that game (the "Trfel help" one). That said my lynch pool atm would be something along Shockeyy, Jock, Fefe. Maybe TickTock because he kinda stopped playing after getting townread by a few. What about Alakaslam, since you spent so much of your first page of filter criticizing his mayor run, why is he not in the lynch pool? Hard to look at filters and type a post while phone posting and exercising, I will double check these accusations. Ignore me if I missed something. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [analysis] + Vivax on Fecalfeast: On November 24 2020 07:40 Vivax wrote: Fefes reaction felt more akin to mine. He can be town for today. On November 24 2020 23:28 Vivax wrote: Not happy with the volume of Fefes posts so far but purely format-wise it's what I'd expect from town Fefe (lazy posts). But maybe he learned to emulate that as scum, so I'll just leave it at a request for him to post more, especially if he wants to be mayor. On November 25 2020 02:15 Vivax wrote: In case someone wants to make me mayor, as in a rebellious maniac who mostly tryhards, here's my program. If I become mayor I'd use it as a vig shot on Shockeyy or FF if they don't rack up at least 2 pages of filter til the end of the day. That's the only thing that makes sense on a D1 with the awful scum hit rate and peeps should know. Otherwise I don't trust anyone to be able to figure out Shockeyy anyway. On November 25 2020 23:40 Vivax wrote: So Vivax's posts on Fecalfeast aren't very convicting (in the sense that it doesn't look too suspicious for Vivax). I can understand him going back on a very early post like that.eThat said my lynch pool atm would be something along Shockeyy, Jock, Fefe. Maybe TickTock because he kinda stopped playing after getting townread by a few. Vivax on Alakaslam: On November 24 2020 23:28 Vivax wrote: Slam intersecting between rayn + Hapa in a way that seems to favour Hapa strikes me as scummy along with saying he wouldn't run as mayor when mafia. Trying too hard to be the nice guy imo. On November 24 2020 23:34 Vivax wrote: Also that reminds me of Slam's comment that mafia wouldn't want the mayor spot or something like that (if I'm not confusing something because I'm not bothering to double check). Add that to his list of sins because it's nonsense imo. On November 25 2020 00:15 Vivax wrote: Don't even know where his Hapa townread came from. He's very one sided in his argumentation here. On November 25 2020 00:20 Vivax wrote: I mean, it's not an outright townread. But to me it looks like his entire approach only makes sense if he does at least believe he's town. Starting with what looks like banter to trying to find out why he isn't running. Top it off with him saying mafia wouldn't run, shouldn't he be more wary here? This it looks like he was trying to please him, or maybe you, in some way. For the sake of. On November 25 2020 00:22 Vivax wrote: Of note, it seems that Vivax is initially reading Alakaslam as scummy but this is as he is reading the thread. I assumed that this post:Anyway I don't want to call him mafia before I've read everything. Going to get to that now. On November 25 2020 00:45 Vivax wrote: meant that Vivax had caught up, but I suppose it's possible that this is not true and Vivax is still not caught up at this time. If that is the case, then this argument becomes a lot weaker.Strike while the iron is hot. I might forget something that caught my eye if I don't instantly write about it. But noted that to you the posts are pointless. Are they also pointless when I'm caught up? On November 25 2020 02:15 Vivax wrote: I can kinda see him not wanting to kill Alakaslam, despite scumreading him, to kill a lurker instead. I guess... Maybe.Seems to be a thing atm to just say x is mafia without pointing out anything in specific, ignore questions and peace out again. At least that's the pattern for Jock and Slam on the last page. For Jock minus the x is mafia but it leaves a bad aftertaste that he dodges or misses Hapas question. Either way Trfel seems like a reasonable choice for mayor. Pretty much my only TR at this point aside from tentatively ticktock. I'm kinda in a hurry so hoped I could do more during these hours. In case someone wants to make me mayor, as in a rebellious maniac who mostly tryhards, here's my program. If I become mayor I'd use it as a vig shot on Shockeyy or FF if they don't rack up at least 2 pages of filter til the end of the day. That's the only thing that makes sense on a D1 with the awful scum hit rate and peeps should know. Otherwise I don't trust anyone to be able to figure out Shockeyy anyway. When they rack up the two pages under duress, my watchful gaze, I'd just try to compromise on a lynch with whom I think is town. On November 25 2020 20:16 Vivax wrote: Then there's this post, which I missed earlier. I suppose if it really took Vivax until here to be fully caught up, I'm surprised but it can make sense. However, given the number of posts criticizing Alakaslam earlier, I wonder why Vivax is no longer scumreading Alakaslam? Is the glance at Hapahauli meant to say that he's sheeping Hapahauli's townread, or what is this about? If not, what is it? If so, did Vivax just not see this earlier or what?I'm caught up now. *retracts slam scumread and throws a glance at Hapa* Also less crazy today. Rayn could you talk a bit about your scumreads? You seem very calm, very diplomatic so far. I'd expect you to have sunk your teeth into someone by now in a more rain-y way. You explained you don't want to jump on Hapa then jumped on Hapa in the same post for not wanting to be mayor (I think?), that's the most fleshed out read I spotted yet somehow he ended up on the bottom of the list when you mentioned other scumreads. Vivax on Jockmcplop: On November 25 2020 01:08 Vivax wrote: So in summary, entrance kinda shitty here but otherwise I feel like Jock is thinking along my lines here in regards to Slam, Grack and Trfel. Which doesn't mean much alignment wise but I can work with him for today. On November 25 2020 23:40 Vivax wrote: Not much changed in Jockmcplop's filter during this time, in fact Jockmcplop was just returning to the thread with some big catch-up posts by the time Vivax posted this second post.I think he just wanted to make a funny entrance. Don't really see him being mafia atm. Shockeyy is always like that. If I'd kill him then not because I think he's scum but because I will never be sure about what he is, probably. Someone mentioned earlier that Jock seemed less analytical than in his usual town games and I'll agree. I also find it odd in his case that he doesn't think Trfel is town given when they have been teammates and imo Trfel doesn't post like in that game (the "Trfel help" one). That said my lynch pool atm would be something along Shockeyy, Jock, Fefe. Maybe TickTock because he kinda stopped playing after getting townread by a few. | ||
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On November 28 2020 09:06 Tictock wrote: Noooo, talk to me..... Phone posting and my keyboard is acting up (thing my case puts pressure on the screen sometimes and my keyboard glitches out). So going into lurker mode as typing sucks @ShoCkeyy, why are you changing votes (assuming you are)? I know you said you can see both Jockmcplop and Vivax as mafia, but it's hard for me to see you actually caring about who gets lynched, you just seem to be willing to vote for whoever thread sentiment is against. On one hand it's good to be willing to consolidate in a majority lynch game, on the other hand it seems suspect to not even care... | ||
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On November 28 2020 09:30 Tictock wrote: Sure, why not?You wanna tin foil a possible hapa/Rayn team with me? What makes you think that? I guess I have a hard time suspecting Hapahauli (especially after he claimed blue). Raynpelikoneet I could see being mafia a bit more easily, but his more recent posts have felt more like what I expect from him as town I guess? Though he could still fool me fairly easily. | ||
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On November 28 2020 10:03 Tictock wrote: Fair enough. I don't believe I have ever played with Hapahauli when he is mafia, but I believe his reputation is to be a weaker scum player with a strong town game.Was kinda a joke, would probably be the worst scum team for town to deal with. Though I would love to find solid reasons to keep the paranoia at Bay. Honestly I am not totally sure how to read them well. I have only played with Hapa once and I was mafia so him not feeling as obviuse town as I was him that game is not a good basis for a read. Still that feeling and not really liking/agreeing with his reads this game has me a little sus. As for Rayn I have been able to see where Rayn is coming from in general and have agreed with his reads, so is most likely town. However his play does feel in line with his mafia play in that he doesn't have as clear a focus as I tend to see him have and was willing to do what other people wanted over his own prefferrance as Mayor. None of that is really sufficient to call him scum but it does keep me from having a lock town read on him. Right now I do not understand where Rayn is coming from and disagree with his reads but am wanting to see his responses before I go much further on that. And just for a disclaimer: None of this effects the current state of the game where we should be lynching Jock kus he is super likely to flip mafia. Yeah, if they are both mafia here that would be quite bad. But especially with Hapahauli's blue claim I think we should be able to figure that out eventually in his case. Raynpelikoneet is a bit tougher I think but I'm not overly worried about him currently? I think once we get it down to one more mafia, things will be a lot easier. Sorry I'm a bit distracted, started playing Magic with some guys, I'll be around here still though. | ||
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On November 28 2020 10:26 raynpelikoneet wrote: Unfortunately, this is something Fecalfeast is known for, at least as far as I know.There is this dude who just did that. Trfel. Then there is this dude who openly claimed to basically doing that. Well unfortunately it doesn't make him mafia, maybe it could make shockeyy mafia instead?? the plot thickens! And I'm not scumreading ShoCkeyy, I'm just poking at him. I don't have much of a read on ShoCkeyy, unfortunately. | ||
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I don't really feel like fighting raynpelikoneet this game, I kinda feel like he's town | ||
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On November 28 2020 10:51 Tictock wrote: Haha, fair enough, Magic can tend to do that.Nice! I recently introduced my roommates to MtG and they have proceeded to spend thousands of dollars on it. Was cool to see the enthusiasm but I sorta created a monster. We are starting to move into EDH so I expect this problem to get worse before it gets better. What formats do you play? I play standard and commander, if you ever want to play a game feel free to PM me! | ||
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On November 28 2020 10:26 raynpelikoneet wrote: Sorry, I'm not completely sure if I understand this post. I'm being accused of doing what I am "accusing" ShoCkeyy of? Which is not caring about who gets lynched, instead following thread sentiment.There is this dude who just did that. Trfel. Then there is this dude who openly claimed to basically doing that. Well unfortunately it doesn't make him mafia, maybe it could make shockeyy mafia instead?? the plot thickens! As I said, it's difficult in a majority lynch game, as we need five votes on the same person by tomorrow's deadline or there is a no lynch. I would much prefer to have a lynch on a suboptimal target than a no lynch. I have been trying to balance my clear desire to have Jockmcplop lynched with the need to compromise. I think I've been doing a good job of balancing these goals, but I suppose that's for you to judge. I believe my preferences have always been made clear. | ||
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On November 28 2020 10:05 ShoCkeyy wrote: ShoCkeyy, weren't all of these things true earlier when you voted for Vivax instead of Jockmcplop? Please explain?Jock doesn’t scum read anybody this game. He slightly hints that you and I are mafia somehow. He pushes for Grack as mayor, although this isn’t alignment indicative, but rather push Grack after ignoring how 3p his first post was. Those are enough for me to vote Jock. | ||
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On November 28 2020 11:33 ShoCkeyy wrote: Yeah okay, I get that. I find some of the way you said things weird and the way you answered my questions a bit weird but I get it, I'll drop it. Thanks.What’s there to explain? I’m consolidating my vote, both are viable targets for me. There’s hardly any substance to Jock over Vivax. | ||
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On November 28 2020 12:32 Hapahauli wrote: ##Vote: HapahauliHey guys - Thanksgiving with the family has gotten a lot more busy than I anticipated. I'm just not going to have any time to play today. I'll have some time before the deadline to do a quick skim and drop a vote... that's about it unfortunately (seriously though, hope time with the family has been good!) (ps vote for Jockmcplop) | ||
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On November 28 2020 13:22 Fecalfeast wrote: Hey. What's up?hi Game seems interesting, but slow Just waiting for the Europeans to wake up I suppose. | ||
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On November 28 2020 13:23 Fecalfeast wrote: Because Jockmcplop is super scummy, in my case anyway.I feel like I'm a pretty good kill here yet only rayn wants to do it, i have to figure out what that means | ||
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That said, raynpelikoneet, if I did something to upset you, I'm sorry. I never said I was good at this game or pretended to be good at this game, I'm just trying my best and trying to help everyone have fun. I never meant to offend you in any way. | ||
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On November 28 2020 19:32 Vivax wrote: Yeah you are right, that wasn't an accurate statement. It was an impression I had that was untrue. My apologies.And I dunno what you are reading because I pointed out the Jock thing at the same time. This post is a lot of waffle and tbh I still have to look at what rayn has been saying about you. I don't think I ever called your alignment wrong though. | ||
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On November 24 2020 14:09 Tictock wrote: If I had to shoot anyone right now (who has posted) I would kill FF. On November 25 2020 00:28 Tictock wrote: Except, the issue is that the post quoted happened in between these two posts from Tictock (link). So then, Tictock is maybe just making up a reason later to justify his scumread when the reason didn't previously exist.... Or, he had some other reason to kill Fecalfeast.Going to get some sleep finnaly. This is the post that makes me want to lynch FF He had made several posts before this, so why is he making apologies and excuses. His next post even suggests he remembered he was running for mayor. Tictock? | ||
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On November 29 2020 05:27 Vivax wrote: But if you're not around tomorrow, isn't that more incentive to try and help out tonight then?I'll await a few comments on the flip and then see what happens at night. Either way my motivation to do stuff should be low not knowing if I'm around tomorrow and with less info than post-night. At most it's odd how Hapa left me off the hook so easily there. Felt like I was his biggest committment in the game. | ||
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On November 25 2020 08:57 Fecalfeast wrote: This post seems quite suspect to me.Kill Tictock if I got mayor most likely, shockeyy maybe instead Slam still town, grack still scumlean for trying hard with his campaign with honestly the same logic as shockeyy ironically You seem towny enough too Fecalfeast says that Grackaroni is a scumlean for trying hard with his campaign, and that that's the same reason he's suspicious of ShoCkeyy too. However, ShoCkeyy didn't try hard with his campaign, by this time he had already stopped campaigning. And his campaign lasted a whole three posts. However, this isn't that helpful as all it proves is that Fecalfeast didn't read carefully, but we already knew that. The interesting part for me is that Fecalfeast is townreading Alakaslam because he's having fun. But why isn't he scumreading him for trying hard with his mayoral campaign? Shouldn't that affect his read on Alakaslam the exact same way it did for Grackaroni and ShoCkeyy? | ||
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On November 29 2020 05:48 Vivax wrote: Fecalfeast said "Grackaroni scumlean for trying too hard on his campaign with honestly the same logic as ShoCkeyy ironically." Which to me reads like he's scumreading ShoCkeyy and Grackaroni for the same reasoning. But I guess I could be wrong, it's not a super clear sentence to me.Mostly I don't know why he thinks Grack was trying too hard. But I don't know why you think that's the same reason he scumread Shockeyy for. | ||
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On November 29 2020 09:35 Tictock wrote: Yes, my apologies, this makes sense. Do you have any thoughts on my other question, about your read on Fecalfeast?Damn, that sucks. I talked about my Hapa read with you already Trfel? Plus the roleblock thing seemed legit, even though you could argue Hapa was using that as cover to dodge the game. It's a weird time though and we just lynched a townie who had disappeared so prob not a good metric. On November 29 2020 05:17 Trfel wrote: So, reading Tictock's filter.Except, the issue is that the post quoted happened in between these two posts from Tictock (link). So then, Tictock is maybe just making up a reason later to justify his scumread when the reason didn't previously exist.... Or, he had some other reason to kill Fecalfeast. Tictock? | ||
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7 players. I'm town. Hapahauli claimed blue. Five left, two mafia. If raynpelikoneet is mafia, he's playing exceptionally well. I almost want to call him mafia because I am not sure who is mafia and it almost feels like TMI on Jockmcplop, but that's not really fair. I don't have any actual reasons to call him mafia, so he is most likely town. Tictock feels towny, he's felt especially invested as of late. I remember him being able to replicate his town play fairly well as mafia, however his most recent mafia game has much more rigid posting than this game. So tone also says he is town. I would say Tictock is a good chance of being town, but could be wrong. Leaves Fecalfeast, ShoCkeyy, and Vivax. I looked through Fecalfeast and ShoCkeyy's filters earlier and didn't find very much useful stuff. While I'm glad Fecalfeast has started to put a bit more effort in, I haven't yet seen anything too alignment indicative. Though I could very well be missing stuff. Vivax also feels towny to me, though that's just a weak impression and I still need to check his filter. Honestly everyone kinda feels like town, which isn't a great place to be Makes me wonder if raynpelikoneet or Hapahauli is mafia after all. I will review Hapahauli's filter but I can't find any reasons to justify them being mafia though So I dunno. Bleh. | ||
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Raynpelikoneet, I don't imagine you want to talk to me today? | ||
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On November 29 2020 15:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: I feel like I'm pretty easy to have my opinion swayed? And if I say I'll look at something, I always do, even if I don't report back my results. I also have no real opinions right now so it would be hard to stick to my own beliefs.I dont really want to talk with anyone today. It's quite amazing when i am town either everyone thinks i am mafia or everyone thinks i am town but noone listens to me even though they might have voted me for mayor... But youre kinda right, i feel like it's especially useless talking with you atm since i am quite confident you are mafia with FF and even if you are town you either stick to whatever you believe anyways, or say youre gonna look at something and then in fact straight out do nothing about it. If I wasn't in the game, who would be mafia with Fecalfeast? I'll go remind myself why you are scumreading Fecalfeast so strongly. | ||
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I mean, you could be right, I just have scumread Fecalfeast so much when he is town, I'm hesitant to do so here. Even if the reasons are more blatant. Which maybe makes me bad. But I'm bad anyway, so it doesn't really say much... | ||
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On November 29 2020 23:08 Vivax wrote: I'll just simplify down to one question. Why did you stop scumreading Alakaslam? I get that this happened as you were catching up with the thread, but what was the reasoning for it?You had multiple posts going on. Which ones in particular do you mean and I don't get what you mean with the last sentence? My reads are far from solid after the Jock flip. I have little conviction on any read besides on you. I think I'd be ok with Fefe as town as well purely tone wise without the semi-martyr-y posts which read too smug for my taste. | ||
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Yes, MYLO. | ||
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On November 30 2020 05:05 Fecalfeast wrote: I mean, we're allowed to vote for a no-lynch, correct?So the only way it's not lylo is if the kill is vetoed today so.... I'm the bodyguard Nice though. We can decide later if a no-lynch is what we want to do, now that you're (presumably) confirmed town it doesn't make a ton of sense to no-lynch though. | ||
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On November 30 2020 05:12 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yeah, I don't really see much of a way around it.I cant find the enthusiasm of checking the flip. I get you're claiming blue Trfel? I dunno, I've had no idea what to do with my role this game. The key though, is that I was roleblocked last night. Which means that mafia decided to not only not kill Hapahauli, but not roleblock him (I don't believe they would have two roleblockers). So that makes Hapahauli almost certainly mafia. I don't understand the setup of this game; part of me still wants to believe that there are three town power roles, especially with the parity cop being a weaker one, but after talking with raynpelikoneet I kinda doubt that. | ||
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I dunno, this is a really lousy situation to be in. But gotta try. | ||
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On November 30 2020 05:34 raynpelikoneet wrote: Sorry. Can I ask why? Unless it is better for you to answer later.You should have waited though if youre town Trfel... For the rbclaim i think. Mafia already knows everything anyway. | ||
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On November 30 2020 05:39 raynpelikoneet wrote: Fair enough, I guess there was no doubt in my mind that he would claim roleblock (in fact, I still expect him to). That does make sense though. Noted for next time, thanks.Because if you dont claim roleblock mafia!hapa might. that's 100% at least for you. | ||
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On November 30 2020 05:49 raynpelikoneet wrote: I've been waiting here for you to figure everything out, setup-wise, but it makes sense that it's a bit too much to figure out without any information (I guess if you want an interesting mental puzzle you can try and figure out my role). But mafia does know everything.I dont know your role. I find you slightly more likely to be town since you claimed the roleblock immediately (making it less likely hapa is town for what you said before about mafia not killing him and not roleblocking him). I also dont know why mafia knows your role, why would they know it? So whatever assumed mafia!Hapa claims is less likely to be legit at least from my pov in case he does it first. | ||
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On November 30 2020 05:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: Fair enough. I guess we're just waiting for Hapahauli then.I dont bluehunt when i am town. I have my guess but it's not really helpful to say it here. | ||
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On November 30 2020 05:59 raynpelikoneet wrote: I guess I was thinking it would be better for the mayor to have a power role so they could guarantee using it for longer? Which is why I kinda wanted to be mayor.I am going back to the discussion between me and hapa about if the mayor should be a blue or not. What's your take on that now Trfel? I get that my "campaign" is a weird kind of way, instead of announcing that I want to be mayor I just play my game and if people think I'm towny and have good reads, they can vote for me. I also didn't want to push too hard for mayor, both because I didn't want to give away having a role and because I wasn't sure what to do with the mayor lynch power (also because mayor tends to have the pressure of LYLO... see how effective that was ). | ||
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On November 30 2020 06:06 raynpelikoneet wrote: Oh, I just meant because they will almost certainly survive until LYLO. Thus they will have the pressure of having to do LYLO.Why would mayor have some pressure they wont otherwise in lylo? | ||
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On November 30 2020 06:08 raynpelikoneet wrote: No, I don't think you are mafia. I mean, it's possible, and I'll probably look into that possibility eventually, but I find it very, very unlikely. You've played a solid game.Also let's assume FF's bg claim is legit. Who's mafia between TT and Vivax? Or do you think i am mafia? Honestly I don't know. I would be inclined to say Vivax, but the way Hapahauli pushed Vivax makes me question it. He then backed off of course, it's possible they were double-bussing, but I'd have to look at it in more detail. Vivax and someone else both questioned Hapahauli's blue claim. I'd be inclined to suspect Vivax for this, as I think (vanilla) town would be more inclined to believe the claim, unless the other person was Tictock as well, then it's moot. I'm a bit distracted, I started playing some Magic online, but I'll try and look some things up to see. | ||
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On November 30 2020 06:19 raynpelikoneet wrote: I don't think so? I had some questions for him yesterday that I'd still like him to answer. He's been kinda in the null/slightly town area.Have you ever scumread TT this game Trfel? I like his play, he was suspicious of Hapahauli yesterday without ever seeming to doubt the blue claim so that seems a bit suspect, knowing that Hapahauli is mafia. Otherwise, pending his answers to my questions, I don't really think he is mafia. | ||
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On November 30 2020 06:24 raynpelikoneet wrote: I never backed off. This wasn't a scumread, this was an "I'm looking into you." He just never answered Why did you back off from this one? | ||
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On November 30 2020 06:27 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yeah, I get that. You just asked me what my read was though :/ Which at this point does involve associations.You realise that i dont know if Hapa is mafia so this doesnt mean much to me. Shouldn't a no-answer ring some bells? I assumed we would be lynching between me and Hapahauli today, but I suppose it doesn't have to be that way. In fact, actually, it makes sense to not do it that way. So we probably should lynch between Tictock and Vivax today. | ||
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I'm (obviously) still suspicious of Tictock, but overall I have felt his play to be decently towny. Lemme dive their filters again. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [analysis] + On November 26 2020 03:37 Tictock wrote: Tictock was suspecting Hapahauli earlier. However, Hapahauli then fell out of his POE, which was Jockmcplop and ShoCkeyy:Honestly reading the more recent bit of Hapa's filter I can see him being mafia. His vote for Trfel as mayor is a bit weird and weak, says he is the "logical" choice. Scumread on Grack due to him campaigning for mayor and "soft-pushing" Trfel. I have a hard time believing Hapa has this good of a townread on Trfel. Also does not seem that he has sus on Rayn so I'm not clear why Hapa would prefer Trfel>Rayn On November 27 2020 14:08 Tictock wrote: And says he doesn't like Hapahauli's case on Vivax:It occurs to me that I have basically poe'd myself down to Jock/Sho That...seems reasonable actually. Glanced through Sho's filter and dont get much from it. It seems like he might just be following thread sentiment with his reads but I am not really able to go check right now. On November 27 2020 14:41 Tictock wrote: However, since this is most of what Hapahauli did, why did Tictock stop suspecting Hapahauli? For that matter, same about Vivax?Yea, the more I look at Hapa's case on Vivax I don't think it holds any water. I don't see why a mafia!vivax would push away from a mislynch on someone he has only stated is a null read. Going to look into the Jock stuff tomorrow. On November 28 2020 10:03 Tictock wrote: Here, Tictock is suspicious of Hapahauli despite Hapahauli being an (at the time) un-cc'd blue.Was kinda a joke, would probably be the worst scum team for town to deal with. Though I would love to find solid reasons to keep the paranoia at Bay. Honestly I am not totally sure how to read them well. I have only played with Hapa once and I was mafia so him not feeling as obviuse town as I was him that game is not a good basis for a read. Still that feeling and not really liking/agreeing with his reads this game has me a little sus. As for Rayn I have been able to see where Rayn is coming from in general and have agreed with his reads, so is most likely town. However his play does feel in line with his mafia play in that he doesn't have as clear a focus as I tend to see him have and was willing to do what other people wanted over his own prefferrance as Mayor. None of that is really sufficient to call him scum but it does keep me from having a lock town read on him. Right now I do not understand where Rayn is coming from and disagree with his reads but am wanting to see his responses before I go much further on that. And just for a disclaimer: None of this effects the current state of the game where we should be lynching Jock kus he is super likely to flip mafia. On November 29 2020 09:35 Tictock wrote: And this. If this is true, why did he post that he was still suspicious of Hapahauli?Damn, that sucks. I talked about my Hapa read with you already Trfel? Plus the roleblock thing seemed legit, even though you could argue Hapa was using that as cover to dodge the game. It's a weird time though and we just lynched a townie who had disappeared so prob not a good metric. Vivax + Show Spoiler [analysis] + As previously mentioned, I don't like how Vivax keeps throwing suspicion at Alakaslam for his first page of filter and then backs off when he's "caught up" for no other apparent reason. This is pending an answer from Vivax. Honestly that's my only real thought about Vivax's filter, at a quick glance anyway. Conclusion I don't really know I'm waiting for an (important) answer from Vivax, I'd like to spend some time talking with both of them more to try and figure this out. Vivax has been quite lazy lately, which is a bit disappointing, and fits his lazy mafia meta. However, Tictock's explanation for his read change on Vivax and Hapahauli doesn't seem to match. I think right now I'd prefer lynching Tictock due to the Hapahauli and Vivax read changes. But other than that, Tictock feels like town to me. It's close. @raynpelikoneet: I know you didn't ask for my read on Hapahauli, I meant that because Hapahauli is almost guaranteed mafia to me, it's essentially flipped associations. Therefore, it's important for (at least) me to consider associations with Hapahauli in my reads. Caveat is that I'm abysmal at associations But still. | ||
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Good night raynpelikoneet. I assume it's okay for me to claim my role once Hapahauli claims his? | ||
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On November 30 2020 07:03 raynpelikoneet wrote: It's a role thing, I assume you want me to tell you later? It's important though, so I'll be happy to discuss it whenever you want. Plus as I added in my previous post, my reasoning was slightly flawed.If you know -- as you seem to know, that hapa is at least almost 100% mafia, why do you prefer this? Once Hapahauli claims his "role" I'll work out which option is mathematically superior. | ||
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I am Jailkeeper. I targeted Hapahauli N1, to try and save him from getting shot.. I targeted Fecalfeast N2 to try and roleblock the mafia night kill, however I was roleblocked. | ||
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On November 30 2020 08:19 raynpelikoneet wrote: Mafia knows there is a jailkeeper because Hapahauli claimed roleblock.why does mafia always know there is a jailkeeper?can you explain it to me as i am dumb and 5y? If Hapahauli is town, mafia sees a random roleblock claim from town (assuming they didn't roleblock Hapahauli themselves, which is likely; there are a lot of players in the game; if they happened to somehow roleblock Hapahauli as well, then idk). As a result, they know that a townie was roleblocked (they wouldn't lie about it) and that they didn't do it, so there has to be a town roleblocker, the only option being a jailkeeper. If Hapahauli is mafia, assuming mafia didn't roleblock him (which would be a..... strange move to say the least), then mafia!Hapahauli got roleblocked, so he knows there is a town roleblocker. Which again, has to be a jailkeeper. | ||
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On November 30 2020 07:05 Trfel wrote: Going back to this. Assuming that me and Hapahauli can't be town together (which I suppose there is still a slim possibility... I never understand setup stuff) and assuming that raynpelikoneet is town (not guaranteed but it'd be one heck of a game for him to be mafia here):It's a role thing, I assume you want me to tell you later? It's important though, so I'll be happy to discuss it whenever you want. Plus as I added in my previous post, my reasoning was slightly flawed. Once Hapahauli claims his "role" I'll work out which option is mathematically superior. One mafia between me and Hapahauli, one mafia between me and Tictock. Mafia is guaranteed to have a roleblocker, as I was roleblocked (unless I'm mafia, but that doesn't affect this I don't think?). Assuming that between me and Hapahauli the mafia percent is 50% each, and same between Vivax and Tictock. (1) Lynch me first, if I'm mafia, then 50/50 for Tictock/Vivax. I don't believe having a Mad Hatter helps here. (2) Lynch me first, if I'm town, gg. (3) Lynch Hapahauli first, if he's mafia, if he's the roleblocker, the game is won. I can use my Jailkeeper ability to roleblock one of Tictock/Vivax and claim which. If someone dies at night, then we know the other one is mafia and delivered the night kill. If no one dies, then we gain a mislynch and we can lynch both players. (4) Lynch Hapahauli first, if he's mafia but not roleblocker, 50/50 between Vivax and Tictock. (5) Lynch Hapahauli first, if he's town, gg. Case 1: 50% likelihood, 50% chance to win after. Total: 25% Case 2: 50% likelihood, 0% chance to win after. Total: 0% Case 3: 25% likelihood, 100% chance to win after. Total: 25% Case 4: 25% likelihood, 50% chance to win after. Total: 25% Case 5: 50% likelihood, 0% chance to win after. Total: 0% Thus, lynching me first provides a 25% chance to win. Lynching Hapahauli first provides a 50% chance to win. This isn't an argument to lynch Hapahauli instead of me as funny as that now seems. But together, lynching between me and Hapahauli has a 37.5% chance of winning. (6) Lynch Vivax or Tictock first, if town, gg (they're the same role, doesn't matter which mathematically speaking). (7) Lynch Vivax or Tictock first, if mafia, if roleblocker, then we win. I can use Jailkeeper on Hapahauli to roleblock the night kill, gaining a mislynch so both can be lynched. (8) Lynch Vivax or Tictock first, if mafia but not roleblocker, then it's a 50/50 between me and Hapahauli still. Case 6: 50% likelihood, 0% chance to win after. Total: 0% Case 7: 25% likelihood, 100% chance to win after. Total: 25% Case 8: 25% likelihood, 50% chance to win after. Total: 12.5% Thus, lynching between Vivax and Tictock also provides a 37.5% chance to win. And this is entirely meaningless But hey, I had to try. | ||
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On November 30 2020 08:30 Hapahauli wrote: Yes, I agree that that is a terrible setup for town. And honestly, this is where things get complicated for me with the whole setup thing.Trfel - talk to me about this "you or me" thing. Why does one of us have to be mafia? Obviously throw out everything I'm about to say if we have another blue claim, but 2 mafia + Evil Mastermind is a fucking disaster for town without a lot of blue-role backup. In my view, you're confirmed town with FF. 2 mafia, 1 evil mastermind, 7 town seems like a really rough setup. However, the bodyguard also confirms a town. Going down to 6 town when (presumably) the evil mastermind recruits a town, if all of us are blue you are saying that 4/6 town in the game are confirmed? Three blues and a bodyguard? That seems a bit ridiculous to me. I agree that maybe that's actually more balanced... it just feels excessive? I've only ever seen three blues in a non-mason game once before I think, mayyyybe twice... but last time it happened, I think we would have been more likely to win the game if it wasn't for having three blues because that made one of the blues doubt the alignment of another. I guess it's not for sure but it seems likely, setup-wise? Because that would be so many confirmed town. Also, in a setup with so much KP, would they really put more KP in the game? I would have maybe expected another doctor or something to try and gain town an extra mislynch, but more KP seems strange. I dunno for sure. I feel like you are towny otherwise, I looked through your filter and I don't see good reasons to call you mafia... But it's really really hard for me to see four confirmed town in a 10-player game. | ||
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I guess the fact that it's already such a weird setup makes me slightly hesitant to try and make reads off of setup things? It's usually correct but also sometimes it can lead to games being lost... like the game that had two town jailkeepers or whatever it was (Palmar and Blazinghand I believe), it required host intervention to stop town from lynching both in succession. But it still just seems like so much confirmed town....... | ||
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On November 30 2020 08:42 Tictock wrote: I guess it's whatever if you don't see anything wrong with it, to me a POE means you're pretty darn sure everyone else is town though?What is wrong with me removing Hapa from my PoE due to being an UnCC'd blue role yet still speculating the possibility of him being mafia? In other news Sho is a weird kill... not totally sure what I make of it yet but seems like that points to Hapa being scum to me. I say that as I feel like a Sho kill indicates mafia was blue hunting. As I assume we should have All claims happen today, I am VT. And I will be decently happy if my yolo scum team D1 is correct. | ||
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(jk.. I don't get it either ) | ||
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On November 30 2020 08:53 Hapahauli wrote: Huh, interesting..........And running for mayor is pretty insane with vigi, since I could shoot someone and instantly confirm the mayor role as town. Mad Hatter is the only damn role in the game that I wouldn't run for mayor, because I basically can't use the fucking role if I'm mayor. So you didn't run for mayor purely because of your Mad Hatter role? In that, you were hoping to die and take someone out with you? | ||
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On November 30 2020 08:57 Hapahauli wrote: Huh. Interesting. Dunno what that means for the current situation, but interesting for sure.Correct. My view was that: 1) I wanted to actually use my role, and/or; 2) If mafia was smart enough to pick up on that from the setup, I basically was guaranteed to stay alive and dodge shots, regardless of whether or not I was "protected". I've got to think about this. Raynpelikoneet seems town, but he's also a really strong mafia player. Hapahauli seems town, but his claim seems like it would make for quite an extreme setup. Then there's Tictock and Vivax.... I don't even know where to begin | ||
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After you claimed blue, why do you think mafia didn't kill you and also didn't roleblock you? | ||
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On November 30 2020 09:10 Hapahauli wrote: As for point 2, that requires mafia being extremely smart.... I don't know if mafia is that smart I think it was very easily deduced from my posting about what blue role I was. As for why I wasn't killed, two plausible reasons: 1) I basically afk'd for 3 days. 2) Why would you shoot the Mad Hatter if you believe he is likely to deliver KP on mafia (i.e. Vivax)? I suppose they could have assumed that I would jailkeep you again, thus roleblocking you, but that seems risky. | ||
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I'll try and do some more filter dives with this new information.... but at least currently, I find myself believing Hapahauli. As strange of a setup as that would make it. Yet I also believe raynpelikoneet. And I believe Tictock. And to some extent, Vivax But I agree that Vivax is the most likely mafia. He has a three page filter by Day 3, and unless he's going to contradict himself, the entire first page was preliminary reads that were canceled as soon as he caught up. I'm not even super confident he's mafia, but that's where I am inclined to look first. Something else that makes me think is that raynpelikoneet does have somewhat of a history (at least, as far as I know) of "unexpected" night kills. But I don't really see the need for him to do that this game, even as a medic dodge the kills this game have been far off what one might expect. And raynpelikoneet has his bodyguard as a perfect excuse for surviving, no need for a weird night kill. Honestly at this point I may just give up trying to read raynpelikoneet. He can play too well as mafia, while I am able to catch him sometimes he can also completely fool me other times. I might just have to try and read Tictock and Hapahauli to POE who the last mafia is... | ||
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On November 27 2020 06:11 Hapahauli wrote: Hapahauli, do explain? If I'm reading this correctly (which I am unsure of), it seems to contradict your recent statements that this is a hard game for town and that justifies having three power roles. Could be wrong, but I'd just like an explanation eventually please!Mechanically speaking, a VT. It would mean that in the remainder of the town, there would be 1-2 blue claims (given the 2 scum + evil mastermind, there is likely another town blue floating around to give the town a chance), in addition to 1 confirmed bodyguard claim. Pretty hard for scum to overcome. @Fecalfeast and whoever else may be around, let me know if you want to talk. I assume Hapahauli wants to do his deep analysis xD | ||
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Second, how much do you know about my scum play? This question likely has a follow-up once you answer. Again, no rush. And I suppose third, I'm wondering why you are back to scumreading Vivax, but I suppose I can wait for your filter dives to finish. In other news, I am still a bit confused as to why mafia didn't roleblock Hapahauli, if Hapahauli is town. Personally, in setups like this where there is no veteran (or the veteran can't be roleblocked to remove the power), I don't value the roleblock very highly at all (until there are blue claims). Thus, I would have 100% used the roleblock on Hapahauli N2, even if I was confident that he would be jailed. But I get that maybe not everyone is that way. So I wonder, did I give away somehow that I was blue? Giving mafia incentive to try and roleblock me instead? I attempted to not do so, though mafia has shown a skill for blue hunting. I definitely understand mafia not wanting to take the risk of shooting town!Hapahauli and getting the shot blocked. And I can see a slight risk of shooting me or Vivax (again, assuming town) and getting it blocked. Shooting into the remaining players is very unlikely to get blocked by the known jailkeeper, and has a chance at taking down the bodyguard. But why not throw a roleblock on Hapahauli in this case? That's what confuses me. | ||
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On November 30 2020 13:16 Hapahauli wrote: Yeah, that's what I thought you meant. I just am currently having trouble reading it that way, but I guess it really doesn't make sense as 1-2 blue roles in total, so I guess I'll take your word for it. Thanks.That post was made after Slam flipped parity cop. So I’m saying there that in addition to the flipped blue, there are likely 1-2 extra roles (and likely 2, hence 3 roles in total). | ||
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And third, his Day 2 scumread on Hapahauli. He said he didn't like the push onto Jockmcplop because there were no other wagons but didn't do anything to consider otherwise (he wasn't the only one who did this but I have higher expectations for paranoid, tinfoil, town!Vivax). And Vivax seemed okay with no one believing him that Hapahauli was mafia. Vivax's willingness to openly call out and suspect an un-cc'd blue and then not care when nothing happens and not do anything with the read seems off. It's fine to voice suspicions, but he went far beyond that without actually making any move to do anything to Hapahauli. Still need to read Tictock and raynpelikoneet, gonna take a break though. | ||
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On November 26 2020 05:04 Tictock wrote: This post by Tictock seems out of place given that he had recently said he was taking back his "don't kill Grackaroni" stance:Lol, good shot. Also he wasn't mafia so I was right too! On November 26 2020 04:39 Tictock wrote: Posting this from my phone and switching back over to my computer. Same things jump out to me about Tictock's filter, specifically his Day 2 reads about Hapahauli raynpelikoneet, and (most notably) Vivax. Tictock's explained them all and part of me thinks the explanation makes sense, but part of me still is unsure...Humm I'm actually gunna take back that "dont kill Grack" thing His filter is pretty meh, and this post feels odd | ||
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on Hapahauli: + Show Spoiler [analysis] + On November 26 2020 03:37 Tictock wrote: Honestly reading the more recent bit of Hapa's filter I can see him being mafia. His vote for Trfel as mayor is a bit weird and weak, says he is the "logical" choice. Scumread on Grack due to him campaigning for mayor and "soft-pushing" Trfel. I have a hard time believing Hapa has this good of a townread on Trfel. Also does not seem that he has sus on Rayn so I'm not clear why Hapa would prefer Trfel>Rayn On November 26 2020 03:39 Tictock wrote: .... What? So Hapa has just ridden this rather than develop better reads on either Vivax or Rayn? On November 28 2020 10:03 Tictock wrote: Honestly I am not totally sure how to read them well. I have only played with Hapa once and I was mafia so him not feeling as obviuse town as I was him that game is not a good basis for a read. Still that feeling and not really liking/agreeing with his reads this game has me a little sus. On November 29 2020 09:35 Tictock wrote: It's not blatantly scummy or anything, I just really don't like this progression. The wording at the end there too, "the roleblock thing seemed legit," feels off. Why wouldn't it be legitimate, and especially since this is Night 2, wouldn't it be "seems" instead of "seemed"? It feels like he's trying to come up with justifications for his reads instead of explain what he actually thinks. I know this is a slight thing, but it seems that everyone is playing well (scum included), so slight things are the best I have.Damn, that sucks. I talked about my Hapa read with you already Trfel? Plus the roleblock thing seemed legit, even though you could argue Hapa was using that as cover to dodge the game. It's a weird time though and we just lynched a townie who had disappeared so prob not a good metric. Basically, day 2 Tictock was advocating lynching Jockmcplop (makes sense). He was also suspicious of Hapahauli and raynpelikoneet, to varying degrees. I note that his reads seem to always go after the "easy targets." He pushed the lynch for Jockmcplop all of Day 2, and then once Jockmcplop died, immediately started advocating for lynching Fecalfeast. While the whole time harboring suspicions against raynpelioneet and Hapahauli. I don't know why he ended up townreading raynpelikoneet so strongly today either, given that he was suspicious of him earlier? Nothing's too strong. I can't help but notice that Tictock continues to townread Vivax and dismiss the cases against Vivax, but again I'm awful at associations so I probably shouldn't go down that road. But even if nothing is super solid, there are still several question marks that make me suspicious of Tictock. I know I'm babbling, but the way he POE'd himself down to Jockmcplop and ShoCkeyy, and then lightly townread ShoCkeyy and never mentioned that he could be scum again (how is he so sure?), and then lightly townread Fecalfeast, and then jumped immediately onto Fecalfeast after Jockmcplop flipped feels very mafia-motivated to me. It doesn't feel like he has the uncertainty of someone who is really trying to figure things out, or the suspicion of someone who isn't sure. Maybe that's the better way to put it. There's a dissonance there. He's suspicious about some things (ex: raynpelikoneet and Hapahauli, even with the blue claim), but certain and decisive about lynching down the path of least resistance. Something like that, anyway. Vivax and Tictock, current guess. | ||
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Other than the fact that there would be three blues in the setup, why is Hapahauli mafia here? I just finished reading your filter, and it seems like the clinching argument is that Hapahauli was saying mafia couldn't kill him N2 because there was the threat of his mad hatter bomb blowing up Vivax. Is that correct? Because I am under the impression (which could be wrong) that if he were to place the bomb and get shot in the same night, the bomb would still go off on the target. If that is not the case, then I agree with you that what Hapahauli is saying makes no sense and that would be suspect. | ||
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On December 01 2020 01:44 Hapahauli wrote: Claim aside, I guess I'm curious about your characterization of my play. You described my mafia play as "passive," can I ask what that means to you? Because I think my mafia play is more active, more aggressive than my town play. I don't know what to do when I have no read to push, so I'm always pushing something. Over-aggression is a problem with my scum play I need to fix.When I played with you in Holy Guardians 2, I had sat down and read a lot of your games. I had in my notes:+ Show Spoiler + "TL Database has 2016 game. Probably too old to matter, but relatively inactive/passive play in 2 page filter. 2020 game in Emergency Quarantine Mafia - persona is more direct, confident, and aggressive. Still has bouts of "sadness", but more in a "pouty" way rather than an "unconfident" way. Town persona tends to be much more "unconfident" and "self-aware". As a result of the notes, I had you pegged as town super early and confidently in HG2. This game as well. Although to add to meta reasons, I think your JK claim is super town and horrifically risky to come from mafia. No reason to risk a binary lynch like that, or no reason to open a can of worms in the event of a 4th blue claim. I suppose maybe it doesn't mean a ton if this is a perception you had from before the game, it just feels weird that your strong townread of me seems based off of a faulty scum meta? Or am I missing something? | ||
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With that said: ##Vote: Hapahauli I can certainly understand why Hapahauli, as a claimed blue, wouldn't be killed. But it's so hard for me to understand why he wouldn't be roleblocked. And while I'm uncertain, I doubt the presence of three blues in the setup, especially given the bodyguard mechanic. With that said: would someone be willing to explain to me what raynpelikoneet is saying about Hapahauli the past few pages that's so condemning? As I said on the last page, it seems to come down to role mechanics that I thought worked differently, but I seem to be horribly misreading. | ||
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On December 01 2020 05:09 Hapahauli wrote: Yes, that's fair. Thanks, that does make sense.Now I can nerd out and go on-and-on-and-on about meta. I am mal-adjusted enough to enjoy that. But as a thought experiment - let's say my meta read is based on some fault or horrid misunderstanding of your play. Does a bad meta read make someone mafia? I think not, which makes this discussion kinda pointless in a game context. | ||
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On December 01 2020 05:24 Hapahauli wrote: I was initially thinking that there could be three blues in the setup. It was the discussion (largely with raynpelikoneet) about blue claims that mostly changed my mind about that. Realizing that the bodyguard effectively counted as a confirmed town and that the Evil Mastermind would likely take a town, and three blues, makes the "special towns" (blues and bodyguard) outnumber the normal towns. It just feels really unlikely to me.Trfel, out of curiosity, why weren't you suspicious of me directly after my roleblock fiasco? A large portion of your read doubts the "3 blues" in the setup. From your perspective, you knew that I was the "3rd blue" from early D2 and onward. Despite my vote having been placed, I'm still around and here to talk about anything anyone deems productive. Unfortunately, it seems that only Hapahauli is around currently, and I'm not sure how much more I have to discuss with him currently, we've already talked a lot is all. More interested in talking with Vivax and Tictock. Though, @Hapahauli, of course I'm more than happy to talk and I'm still looking into stuff. | ||
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On December 01 2020 05:34 Hapahauli wrote: Honestly I'm not really sure much of the mechanics of the setup. There are still some basic questions about how my own role works that I probably should ask, like roleblock ordering and stuff.Why is this setup not "balanced" if the Evil Mastermind takes a blue on N1? Or the town Mayor? I think a lot of your discussion discounts the sheer power of the role and the potential for chaos. If I am reading your post correctly, you also seem to be implying that the Evil Mastermind can only convert a VT, which is inaccurate to my knowledge. Honestly I dunno if this setup is balanced any way you look at it. Interesting sure, but there are too many unpredictable things to make a balanced setup, depending on how long the blues stay alive and what the evil mastermind does. But yes, I would be more than happy to try and find your scum-buddy. Can I ask why you currently prefer Vivax to Tictock, given that you seem to consider them both near 100% mafia? Or was it arbitrary? | ||
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On December 01 2020 06:01 Fecalfeast wrote: Nooo, Fecalfeast, you ruined it Arguing a claim based on game balance when we've already had a cult leader flip is not a good argument in my opinion and honestly hapa is making sense to me and his restraint from trying to take rayn down helps my opinion of him as well. We still have a day so for now I'm putting my vote on TT to see how it suits me Vote for Hapahauli again? | ||
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On December 01 2020 06:19 Hapahauli wrote: Yeah okay fine, I don't really want to lynch you, as we speak I'm typing up a post of all the reasons I think you're town What exactly is ruined? FF is positioning himself well to lord over the townies who decide to lynch a blue. I'd say he's doing an excellent job. In all seriousness Trfel, you are expressing a lot of confusion over the setup and balance. How can you say then that this is a strong basis for lynching me? I was trying to make a play. I think it's a strong argument for your towniness that the votes all stacked up against you. How you haven't yet given up or stopped playing, and (especially) how raynpelikoneet, Vivax, and Tictock all were content to vote for you. Assuming Fecalfeast and I are both town, that means that if you are mafia, one of them is bussing you. It doesn't make sense for you to continue to try this hard and for them to vote for you so confidently, and with no second plan (not really looking past this one lynch). And I think this argument only gets stronger the longer the votes all stay that way and mafia does nothing about it (and potentially, the longer you keep trying to play the game, which is why I was still trying to engage with you despite "thinking you were mafia"). But Fecalfeast ruined it That said, I still would like to know raynpelikoneet's argument against Hapahauli from a few pages ago I'm still trying to understand it but I'm just not seeing it. I probably should actually ask the hosts the billion questions I have for them about role mechanics. | ||
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On December 01 2020 06:27 Hapahauli wrote: Haha, like I said, I'm not going to pardon anyone, even myself. Even if I weren't blue.##Vote GreYMisT I knew I could count on you Trfel <3 Now if Rayn is stubborn, are you ready to YOLO Pardon me? It would be an objectively terrible play, but it would be hilarious and awesome. I should add, to all of the setup discussion, the fact that a pardoner exists also makes the game much, much harder for town. Especially in a game with potentially 2 non-town KP a night, having a chance for non-town to negate one of town's few opportunities to flip someone could be disastrous. And I think that needs to be factored into the game balance as well. For what it's worth. | ||
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(in no particular order) 1. Hapahauli's play makes sense and is towny this game. Hapahauli has been constantly sharing his reads and backing them up with well-thought arguments. But I suppose Hapahauli's towniness is up to your own opinion. I've never seen Hapahauli play as mafia, and I'm especially horrid at meta'ing games I haven't played in so I don't expect to be reading any mafia!Hapahauli games, but I am under the impression that he's not able to mimic his townplay as mafia. This game would be a pretty heroic effort for Hapahauli to be mafia here. 2. All of the votes stacked up on Hapahauli, and he didn't give up or stop playing. Keep in mind, that unless you think I am mafia, or (to a lesser extent) that Fecalfeast is mafia, Hapahauli is presumably getting bussed here. So why did he not give up or back down on the effort? Even when I said he was mafia, he offered to keep playing and help me find his scum-buddy. This only makes sense if he's trying to incriminate a player who isn't voting for him (which, at a stretch, would be me or Fecalfeast; and everyone seems to assume we are town), or if he is actually town. 3. The way all of the votes stacked up against Hapahauli shows that mafia are okay with this. Tictock and Vivax (I suppose also raynpelikoneet, though I don't think he is mafia) are both happy to vote for Hapahauli. Looking at Vivax's filter, he hasn't made very many posts recently but he has been spending those posts pushing Hapahauli while also being suspicious of both Tictock and raynpelikoneet. To me, this feels much more like he's looking one lynch ahead rather than two. Tictock voted for Hapahauli while having strong (but not 100% certain) townreads on both raynpelikoneet and me, and then eventually posts some reasons for Vivax being mafia. It's nowhere near as suspicious as Vivax's play, but I still get a little of a sense that he's not really trying to figure things out, especially past today. 4. If Hapahauli is mafia, why didn't he just 1v1 me? Raynpelikoneet was very suspicious of me. Only Hapahauli and Vivax were really townreading me, I believe. If Hapahauli is mafia, he had the perfect excuse to tunnel me (the blues contradiction), and he's already shown that he is willing to put in a lot of effort to be persuasive. I like to think I'm an okay player, but I'm not a leader-type and I'm not as persuasive, I think we all know what would realistically happen if it came down to a 1v1 between me and Hapahauli like that, especially with me starting out being more scumread than Hapahauli. | ||
Trfel
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On December 01 2020 07:15 Hapahauli wrote: Yeah, I checked as well, found it surprising but favorable. Even if we mislynch today there's still a 33-50% chance of gaining another lynch.FYI, I did confirm roleblock mechanics with the host. The Jailkeeper is divided into 2 actions: 1) A roleblock that resolves first... 2) And THEN a save. This roleblock has the same priority as the mafia RB. So, in the scenario where: Player A is Jailkeeper Player B is Mafia RB Player C is a townie If Player A JK's Player B, and; If Player B both RB's Player A and shoots Player C; Player C survives that interaction, and Player B's KP is blocked. Therefore, we are in a position tomorrow (assuming we lynch mafia today) where Trfel, even if he is shot, can RB someone and confirm them as town or mafia. | ||
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On December 01 2020 11:00 Tictock wrote: This is technically correct, but as Hapahauli was saying, if mafia chooses to no-kill, then town gains an extra mislynch. So it's the same result in the end.Mafia can no shoot so we cannot use JK to confirm someone as mafia. I don't see a problem with JK confirming someone as town though if a kill does go through. Unless you're saying mafia is allowed to store up their shots and use them all at once, but that's a really stupid mechanic that I've never actually seen in a game. | ||
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Hopefully raynpelikoneet comes back? If not the right play is to switch back to Hapahauli, right? | ||
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On December 01 2020 12:53 Hapahauli wrote: Right, I forgot about that. Thanks, that makes sense.FF or Rayn need to vote Vivax. Given that FF has expressed his sense of a Vivax/TT scumteam, I'm not worried about him coming back and consolidating. Even if Rayn doesn't come back, TT unvoting Vivax to create a no-lynch (when he supposedly has no preference between a Hapa/Vivax lynch) is a straight scum-claim and should get him instantly policy lynched next day. Also remember that a no-lynch does not lose town the game here, which would make such a switch pretty stupid from a scum-TT perspective. | ||
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On December 01 2020 13:04 raynpelikoneet wrote: Sounds good, I'll (probably) be there.I just arrived at work, i am going to explain why after i grt home | ||
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On December 01 2020 13:29 raynpelikoneet wrote: Did Hapahauli ever say this? I thought he was advocating lynching Tictock or Vivax because he thinks they are mafia and he is town (presumably) so that would be a superior lynch?Let me start by saying this: Hapa is saying we should definitely lynch into TT/Vivax because if we hit mafia there the game is practically solved. This is obviously smart from mafia perspective because he then isnt lynched and town can still make the wrong decision with TT/Vivax. From town perspective though; Lets say we lynch Vivax and he flips mafia. Trfel jails Hapa (or whoever) and the NK goes through. How is the game solved? | ||
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On December 01 2020 08:35 Hapahauli wrote: @raynpelikoneet, you are referring to this discussion, right?Let's make a deal TT. I think Vivax is mafia. You think Vivax is mafia. Let's kill Vivax. After that, since we both think that Trfel is the JK, he can simply block me tomorrow and "confirm me as mafia". Sounds good? Game solved and over from your perspective. No need to argue or do anything. I don't think Hapahauli was trying to argue that we should kill between Vivax/Tictock first instead of him because it's somehow superior. Rather, the point Hapahauli is trying to make here is that Tictock is suspicious because by his own logic, he should be fine lynching Vivax. Hapahauli was trying to see if Tictock would go along with that and vote for Vivax, or if he would hesitate. I read it as more of an experiment. Like I get that he could do this as mafia. It's mafia motivated to move votes off of oneself. But why wouldn't Hapahauli do this as town? If you're referring to a different discussion, the above is all moot. In that case if you could please point me to it? Because I (quickly) read the thread from Hapahauli's claim until this point and didn't find what you are referring to. | ||
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On December 01 2020 14:48 Tictock wrote: Can I ask why it's better to lynch Vivax than Hapahauli? I thought you were scumreading both equally?I am not getting into that, just saying Vivax should be the lynch here. | ||
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On December 01 2020 15:04 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay, yeah I get why that logic wouldn't work for me. I don't think he ever used that logic towards me though? I don't recall it at all.Yes i understand towards TT it can be this. Towards you though it doesnt follow the same logic. If his experiment went well and TT came off as scummy why is he not voting for TT then? I know TT is voting for Vivax here but still, he was very hesitant at first. | ||
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1. He gets to use the role if he gets shot Night 1, unless mafia roleblocked him as well as killed him (which would literally only be beneficial against the Mad Hatter and Vigilante I believe). I would expect mafia to roleblock someone other than their kill target. As far as the logic for not running for mayor to be able to use his role, that's an interesting point, I guess it would depend on whether he values the protection more or the potential Mad Hatter shot more. Hapahauli saying he would likely run for mayor if there wasn't a good mayoral candidate makes sense to me, if someone else was towny and had utility later then they could be mayor and get the best of both worlds. Whether I qualify as worth giving a bodyguard, that's certainly up for debate. The point has some merit, but I'm unsure how much. 2. Could be missing something but I thought those statements happened in the other order? Where Hapahauli first said Jockmcplop could be mafia because he doesn't remember anything he posted, and then (presumably) looked at it and found other reasons to scumread him. 3. Gosh, I feel bad, but I'm not seeing this one at all Looked through both Hapahauli's and Tictock's filters. I'm so blind 4. I have absolutely no idea. This is an extremely compelling point. 5. I thought that lynching someone for three blues being too much is valid, isn't this what we were talking about yesterday? It's at least worth considering. As for the appeal to emotion itself, I guess I wasn't under the impression that it was a scumtell? I do feel like those statements were somewhat suspect though. 6. Supposedly Hapahauli only had a few minutes to skim the thread, I assume he would say he didn't have the time to actually read your Fecalfeast case earlier. Bleh. I'm gonna start winding down and going to bed (it's late here), but I'll decide tomorrow. I'm actually horrid at making decisions though, so it would be great if you and Fecalfeast could agree so I can just do that. Currently I'd still prefer not lynching Hapahauli, but I have some things to think about, some questions to get answered, and I'm really not very certain, I wouldn't be surprised if Hapahauli is mafia here. This is the part of mafia games I don't like, where I have to make a decision | ||
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So if Hapahauli is mafia, it's with raynpelikoneet or Tictock. If it's raynpelikoneet, they'd be going through a lot of theatrics when they could just get a mislynch and collect the win pretty easily. So I don't really believe that either. Leaves Hapahauli and Tictock. This is a much more believable combination. | ||
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On December 01 2020 19:44 Tictock wrote: Why can't you be mafia with Hapahauli? And, come to think of it, you really think that Hapahauli and Vivax are mafia together, with how they've pushed each other? But I suppose raynpelikoneet disagrees. And his reasoning makes sense. But I'd like to hear yours?How in the hell do you think I am mafia with Hapa after today? Rayn/Hapa makes no sense either with Rayn literally not wanting to lynch anyone by Hapa all day. On December 01 2020 21:03 Hapahauli wrote: Yeah, I know Trfel, you need to stop being convinced by the last person you speak to. On December 02 2020 00:57 Vivax wrote: What? Not wanting to get lynched in MYLO makes someone mafia?If you bother to compare his earlier days posting (sizeable and sparse) with today's posting (fast reactive) do you not reach the conclusion that he changed his posting style to survive? It just seems logical to me that mafia would squeeze through a last effort here. And I don't think that Hapa switching from aforementioned posting style to one-liner spam should make him town. He fell out of character, so to say. I've got to take another look at the P61 thing and Hapahauli's explanation. | ||
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On December 02 2020 03:07 Vivax wrote: Again, I've never seen Hapahauli play as scum (okay that's kind of a lie, I did try and read one of his games last night, good old 7 years old meta...) but I'd say this is definitely within raynpelikoneet's town range, no? Even if it isn't the most "productive" thing to be doing.Who doesn't want to not get lynched at MYLO? That doesn't mean that as town you start spamming after pretending to favour a more condensed style. What Hapa and rayn are doing is clearly disruptive. I don't see the need to start swearing and spamming, burying more informative posts in the process, and with only two mafia in the thread most likely. The outcome is still undecided and if you and FF (and TT maybe) won't change your mind then fine. I just wish you luck picking the target at night because you will decide the game. | ||
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I can understand missing it in the brief skim, but I thought you would have seen it in the deep read to catch up at least? Or did you skip Day 2 in that read? I'm confused/suspicious here. | ||
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On December 02 2020 03:17 Hapahauli wrote: No I get that, I just wanted to check if the explanation had an inconsistency. That makes more sense for me, now I'll check to make sure it's consistent or not.I don't know why it is that hard for anyone to understand a) why someone can be pissed off when they get tunneled by Rayn, and then b) why that would encourage that person to make raging/irrational posts. | ||
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On December 02 2020 03:23 raynpelikoneet wrote: Likely down.who wants to lynch TT? | ||
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On December 02 2020 03:44 raynpelikoneet wrote: @raynpelikoneet, the top nested Vivax quote here, the crystal ball one.Trfel and Fefe please ask vivax about this. I am gonna be sad if i am wrong about hapa. What was the point of these posts then? Since obviously I'm not seeing what you are seeing. | ||
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On December 02 2020 04:47 Hapahauli wrote: So you're not so confident about Vivax being mafia before?If we lynch mafia today and Trfel doesn't JK me tomorrow, I will never forgive him for 3 days. I hereby give the town the right to reference this post later. Or Tictock? I know you said there is a chance of raynpelikoneet being mafia now, is that just moody, or do you now have a preference between Vivax and Tictock? | ||
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On December 02 2020 04:50 Hapahauli wrote: Gotcha.No, I'm on the TT/Vivax boat. Just some light trolling and sarcastic commentary. Moreso highlighting the inconsistency - why is TT not suspicious of me given my "voting pattern"? | ||
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Sorry guys Even though I still don't know for sure what I did wrong, just that I did wrong | ||
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On December 02 2020 07:03 Hapahauli wrote: Should I say? Or should I wait?Ok. The suspense is too much. What did you do? Presumably mafia already knows what I did...... Unless they held their shot. Which is what I'm worried about currently. But that would be quite the gamble, I dunno if mafia would actually do that. Though it would be hilarious if it worked. | ||
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On December 02 2020 07:03 Hapahauli wrote: Also, shouldn't you know what I did if you are town?Ok. The suspense is too much. What did you do? | ||
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On December 02 2020 07:18 Hapahauli wrote: Yes I was.Actually before I do the math, were you Roleblocked Trfel? This affects the analysis. | ||
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Playing a board game with my roommate, be back later. | ||
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On December 02 2020 09:03 Hapahauli wrote: Yes, this. That was absolutely incredible.Rayn won this game and I don’t care what anyone says | ||
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On December 02 2020 09:20 iamperfection wrote: Yeah, I had that post quoted to ask about, but it doesn't matter now.game was over at that point anyways | ||
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@Jockmcplop and Tictock, sorry for the mistakes/mislynches My bad. What a game though. Lots of great play all around. | ||
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On December 02 2020 09:42 Vivax wrote: Honestly it was a really close call. It came all down to WIFOM, I reasoned that we both (me and mafia) figured I knew Vivax was mafia. So I took the risk that I wasn't going to roleblock Vivax, which left me open to WIFOM, but I thought you guys would make me figure it out between raynpelikoneet and Hapahauli. It was honestly a really really really really really close decision.It's in the qt. Unexpected jail by Trfel anyway, when did you start scumreading rayn? Definitely a good pick. The lack of CCs from our part also gave Trfel all the wiggle room he wanted. I couldn't have claimed to have jailed Hapa N1 though since he wasn't a townread. | ||
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On December 02 2020 12:14 raynpelikoneet wrote: You guys lost on a game mechanics technicality, unfortunately.So what happened? We lost? It's a mafia victory in everyone's heart though. Incredibly well played, I'm honestly amazed at how well you guys did this game. | ||
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