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On July 03 2019 21:09 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game? I'm trying not to but I can't help not being confident in my own reads when the reasons aren't convincing. There wasn't really anything in there that was very good imo until i got to hf.
To expand on this, the read I was super confident on in the last game was kelsier and he turned out to be mafia, i had good reasons to think so too.
You'll notice I flip flopped on my scumread of grack in the last game even though i was trying to be more confident and he ended up town.
There's no point being over confident in a read that doesn't even convince me.
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Updated spreadsheet added rayn's reads (as far as i can tell what they are) and hf's pandain read.
+ Show Spoiler +
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On July 03 2019 21:17 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:12 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game?
There was an early interaction between HF and Rayn that struck me as off, but I kind of came out of it thinking that Rayn was scum... Because they kind of amicably came to the same idea despite seemingly starting from different view points (this is when Rayn switches his vote off of ES, then back on.
I don't agree with Pandain, I think ES being willing to only lynch me shows a lack of understanding of what town players are seeing in the game right now and I'm a pretty safe resting spot right now. Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch? If you can't explain this, you can't vote her. 1) Grack could be mafia 2) She could think I'm a more viable lynch 3) She's under a lot of pressure and people under pressure do a lot of crazy things they wouldn't do otherwise. 4) She's afraid of giving more associations, so she's locking in all of her reads (this actually is pretty well in line with her play since I joined the wagon) The issue here is, I don't think anything a player does under pressure or after a slip matters
Do you really think this? Anything a player does under pressure is irrelevant?
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On July 03 2019 21:21 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:19 Jockmcplop wrote:On July 03 2019 21:17 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:12 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game?
There was an early interaction between HF and Rayn that struck me as off, but I kind of came out of it thinking that Rayn was scum... Because they kind of amicably came to the same idea despite seemingly starting from different view points (this is when Rayn switches his vote off of ES, then back on.
I don't agree with Pandain, I think ES being willing to only lynch me shows a lack of understanding of what town players are seeing in the game right now and I'm a pretty safe resting spot right now. Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch? If you can't explain this, you can't vote her. 1) Grack could be mafia 2) She could think I'm a more viable lynch 3) She's under a lot of pressure and people under pressure do a lot of crazy things they wouldn't do otherwise. 4) She's afraid of giving more associations, so she's locking in all of her reads (this actually is pretty well in line with her play since I joined the wagon) The issue here is, I don't think anything a player does under pressure or after a slip matters Do you really think this? Anything a player does under pressure is irrelevant? Definitely not very sensible. Then you couldn't count anything a person up for lynch does ever. In that logic, once you decide you want to lynch someone, you ignore absolutely everything they say/do because they're "Under pressure"
Exactly. Shit like 90% of what happens in the thread happens because of pressure on someone.
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Eywa what do you think of hf? Would you consider a lynch given what I posted above?
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On July 03 2019 21:35 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:32 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:27 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:25 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:20 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:17 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:12 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game?
There was an early interaction between HF and Rayn that struck me as off, but I kind of came out of it thinking that Rayn was scum... Because they kind of amicably came to the same idea despite seemingly starting from different view points (this is when Rayn switches his vote off of ES, then back on.
I don't agree with Pandain, I think ES being willing to only lynch me shows a lack of understanding of what town players are seeing in the game right now and I'm a pretty safe resting spot right now. Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch? If you can't explain this, you can't vote her. 1) Grack could be mafia 2) She could think I'm a more viable lynch 3) She's under a lot of pressure and people under pressure do a lot of crazy things they wouldn't do otherwise. 4) She's afraid of giving more associations, so she's locking in all of her reads (this actually is pretty well in line with her play since I joined the wagon) The issue here is, I don't think anything a player does under pressure or after a slip matters 1. Then vote Grack 2. Objectively not true. 3. The vote count was 3-4 Grack-ES. It's not a difficult choice to make as mafia to join the counterlynch. You can't cite pressure. 4. If ES gets lynched, we still know nothing on Grack regardless. What slip have you seen? 1) No 2) It is if he decides to jump in and play 3) what? 4) shrug Why would ES think you are a more viable lynch? There were no votes on you. There were 3 votes on Grack. Only Jock has had some suspicions of you. Answer me this. If you can't answer it yourself then you are admitting that ES is playing against her win condition as either alignment... Why would she do that? If she's town, her play makes complete sense. She does not think Grack is scum. She thinks you are scum. Yes, no one really thinks you are scum, but maybe she can convince people. She is not interested in "just surviving" per se, she is interested in lynching scum. If she's mafia. Her play makes no sense. She is trying to push someone who almost no one thinks is scum when she's up for lynch and there's another viable counterwagon. In fact, there's only one viable counterwagon.
I still don't get how hf 'doesn't believe' in this very simple logic.
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On July 03 2019 21:37 Pandain wrote:
At least HF thinks both are scum, so he has some leeway. You do not.
Like I said, if they are both scum this logic proves even more that ES wouldn't take this action. Its literally a loss for mafia as soon as she flips.
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On July 03 2019 21:42 Pandain wrote:
I'm going to vote Eywa until he starts talking.
jock wanna join me? I'll vote with you HF at eod if ES is the only other option.
I've flipflopped around enough today already!
I'm going to stick with hf and see if I can build some consensus when other people are around. I really believe in this, so I want to see what other people think before I abandon it.
Also, I'm not entirely convinced on eywa yet at all. Very much a slight lean toward scum from my perspective, but eywa's posting always pisses me off and I've not seen a scum flip yet.
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On July 03 2019 21:44 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:40 Jockmcplop wrote:On July 03 2019 21:37 Pandain wrote:
At least HF thinks both are scum, so he has some leeway. You do not. Like I said, if they are both scum this logic proves even more that ES wouldn't take this action. Its literally a loss for mafia as soon as she flips. This is incorrect, but probably the perception. Honestly, both are ok plays as either alignment. You can gambit on yourself or you can counter wagon. It has nothing to do with alignment, it's just about playstyle. We shouldn't all lose our minds because someone chose gambit on themselves...
How is this incorrect????
If ES fails to switch to grack, then flips red, we immediately kill grack because basic logic says so. If they are both mafia, mafia loses.
I can't see how on earth you can possibly think otherwise.
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On July 03 2019 21:47 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:46 Jockmcplop wrote:On July 03 2019 21:44 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:40 Jockmcplop wrote:On July 03 2019 21:37 Pandain wrote:
At least HF thinks both are scum, so he has some leeway. You do not. Like I said, if they are both scum this logic proves even more that ES wouldn't take this action. Its literally a loss for mafia as soon as she flips. This is incorrect, but probably the perception. Honestly, both are ok plays as either alignment. You can gambit on yourself or you can counter wagon. It has nothing to do with alignment, it's just about playstyle. We shouldn't all lose our minds because someone chose gambit on themselves... How is this incorrect???? If ES fails to switch to grack, then flips red, we immediately kill grack because basic logic says so. If they are both mafia, mafia loses. I can't see how on earth you can possibly think otherwise. It would be incorrect to do so. That's not an associative, what happened before is the associative. All I'm saying is that her optimal play as mafia is always the same as her optimal play for town. She can counter wagon or she can gambit, both are valid plays and are NOT associative.
Oh we're back on the thing where if someone's under pressure, nothing they do matters.
I'm not banging my head on that brick wall, thanks. Everyone else will be able to see that this is obvious - you keep being you eywa.
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On July 03 2019 22:22 Holyflare wrote:
Lol all your logic literally doesn't apply to almost every game I've ever played in. Mafia defends grack, if he's town they don't want to look bad. Could be why she's slowly eroding her town read on grack to move her vote "legitimately" at the end of the day.
They could both be mafia and that's why she's arbitrarily picked someone that in my eyes is an easy lynch that isn't grack.
I don't believe if they're both mafia they'd vote each other, that's stupid logic.
What does this even mean? Grack isn't voting for ES right now.
Are you telling me that if ES flips red, we shouldn't go and immediately lynch grack?
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On July 03 2019 22:36 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 17:44 Eversince wrote:On July 03 2019 17:41 Jockmcplop wrote:On July 03 2019 17:35 Eversince wrote:
I got called off to work. but I'm back now if people want to talk! It would be in your interest to take a look at grack, given that he's now the alternate wagon to you! I've already said what I feel about Grack. His poor contribution after I defend him so hard is bleh though. I'd be ok with lynching him to be honest. Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 17:49 Eversince wrote:
No actually Grack can wait I still think what Ewya did is so scummy, This needs dealt with first. Does this look like "slowly eroding a town read" to you? It's the opposite, Holyflare.
Hf is trying to make ES look bad. That's the whole point of all of his posts.
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On July 03 2019 22:56 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 22:29 Jockmcplop wrote:On July 03 2019 22:22 Holyflare wrote:
Lol all your logic literally doesn't apply to almost every game I've ever played in. Mafia defends grack, if he's town they don't want to look bad. Could be why she's slowly eroding her town read on grack to move her vote "legitimately" at the end of the day.
They could both be mafia and that's why she's arbitrarily picked someone that in my eyes is an easy lynch that isn't grack.
I don't believe if they're both mafia they'd vote each other, that's stupid logic. What does this even mean? Grack isn't voting for ES right now. Are you telling me that if ES flips red, we shouldn't go and immediately lynch grack? You're telling me that es is town because she won't vote grack. Then why is that logic not made for grack who isn't voting es???
Because grack has not been in the thread while he's been close to being lynched. He had 3 votes for a short time earlier but wasn't here.
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Maybe I shouldn't townread ES too strongly on this. I'm starting to see your point of view (I still think I'm right), but even so, I wouldn't scum read ES from your case, or anyone else's that I've read so far because they all suck balls.
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Whereas hf, you have been inconsistent, have constantly made terrible, illogical points trying to get ES lynched, and even contradicted yourself on eywa while you were doing it.
Scum.
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rayn you missed obviously mafia hf obviously being mafia.
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On July 03 2019 23:04 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 23:01 Jockmcplop wrote:
Whereas hf, you have been inconsistent, have constantly made terrible, illogical points trying to get ES lynched, and even contradicted yourself on eywa while you were doing it.
Scum. Feel free to vote me.
I already did 
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On July 03 2019 23:06 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 23:04 Jockmcplop wrote:
rayn you missed obviously mafia hf obviously being mafia. he isn't "obviously mafia".
Do you have any thoughts on his play so far?
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On July 03 2019 23:15 Holyflare wrote:
Don't really understand what I've done that's scummy other than be marginally apathetic to the game.
You must have missed the posts i made about it.
They way you have gone after ES is scummy. The bad logic that seems like an excuse to vote for ES more than anything else. The way you then brought up the eywa thing even though it contradicts your own post from earlier - just to make ES look bad.
Every post you make about ES seems like you're trying to get the evidence to fit instead of seeing where the evidence leads. As if you already knew who you were accusing and just need to twist the facts to make it look right.
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On July 03 2019 23:31 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 23:19 Jockmcplop wrote:On July 03 2019 23:15 Holyflare wrote:
Don't really understand what I've done that's scummy other than be marginally apathetic to the game. You must have missed the posts i made about it. They way you have gone after ES is scummy. The bad logic that seems like an excuse to vote for ES more than anything else. The way you then brought up the eywa thing even though it contradicts your own post from earlier - just to make ES look bad. Every post you make about ES seems like you're trying to get the evidence to fit instead of seeing where the evidence leads. As if you already knew who you were accusing and just need to twist the facts to make it look right. You keep referencing the bad logic but then said you're starting to see my point of view. So which is it eh?
The bad logic i'm referring to is the whole 'ES got a meta read on me wrong therefore she is mafia'. It makes no sense and is stupid.
On July 03 2019 23:31 Holyflare wrote:
I don't think anyone reading my post can disagree with my point in eywa. It's different, even eywa agrees. If you are mafia es and your partner is up for lynch mafia go for lynch bait which es did even though eywa is playing similarly to last game.
My thoughts on eywa mean nothing because of several reasons:
Es never agreed with those points.
Es played with eywa literally last game.
If you take away my point on eywa, eywa looks the same as last game and es is pushing that as scummy even though literally in the last game eywa was the same. There is no hesitance. Its "oh yeah counter wagon grack is up for lynch, maybe he is scummy! But this eyway guy that's the same as last game though!"
It's superficial and contradictory to what her own thought process should be and is typical of mafia trying to find an easy lynch wagon to place a vote. Who else does es really scum read? Sure your read list can elaborate on that.
Your point on eywa was specifically that eywa has played differently in this game to other games.
You thne scum read ES because you say eywa has played exactly the same in this game as in the last game.
You really can't see a contradiction there? You really can't see how it looks like you will say anything to make ES look bad?
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EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/qyfHM0k.png)
