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On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game?
There was an early interaction between HF and Rayn that struck me as off, but I kind of came out of it thinking that Rayn was scum... Because they kind of amicably came to the same idea despite seemingly starting from different view points (this is when Rayn switches his vote off of ES, then back on.
I don't agree with Pandain, I think ES being willing to only lynch me shows a lack of understanding of what town players are seeing in the game right now and I'm a pretty safe resting spot right now.
Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch?
If you can't explain this, you can't vote her.
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On July 03 2019 21:17 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:12 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game?
There was an early interaction between HF and Rayn that struck me as off, but I kind of came out of it thinking that Rayn was scum... Because they kind of amicably came to the same idea despite seemingly starting from different view points (this is when Rayn switches his vote off of ES, then back on.
I don't agree with Pandain, I think ES being willing to only lynch me shows a lack of understanding of what town players are seeing in the game right now and I'm a pretty safe resting spot right now. Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch? If you can't explain this, you can't vote her. 1) Grack could be mafia 2) She could think I'm a more viable lynch 3) She's under a lot of pressure and people under pressure do a lot of crazy things they wouldn't do otherwise. 4) She's afraid of giving more associations, so she's locking in all of her reads (this actually is pretty well in line with her play since I joined the wagon) The issue here is, I don't think anything a player does under pressure or after a slip matters
1. Then vote Grack
2. Objectively not true.
3. The vote count was 3-4 Grack-ES. It's not a difficult choice to make as mafia to join the counterlynch. You can't cite pressure.
4. If ES gets lynched, we still know nothing on Grack regardless.
What slip have you seen?
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On July 03 2019 21:19 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:17 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:12 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game?
There was an early interaction between HF and Rayn that struck me as off, but I kind of came out of it thinking that Rayn was scum... Because they kind of amicably came to the same idea despite seemingly starting from different view points (this is when Rayn switches his vote off of ES, then back on.
I don't agree with Pandain, I think ES being willing to only lynch me shows a lack of understanding of what town players are seeing in the game right now and I'm a pretty safe resting spot right now. Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch? If you can't explain this, you can't vote her. 1) Grack could be mafia 2) She could think I'm a more viable lynch 3) She's under a lot of pressure and people under pressure do a lot of crazy things they wouldn't do otherwise. 4) She's afraid of giving more associations, so she's locking in all of her reads (this actually is pretty well in line with her play since I joined the wagon) The issue here is, I don't think anything a player does under pressure or after a slip matters Do you really think this? Anything a player does under pressure is irrelevant?
Definitely not very sensible. Then you couldn't count anything a person up for lynch does ever.
In that logic, once you decide you want to lynch someone, you ignore absolutely everything they say/do because they're "Under pressure"
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On July 03 2019 21:25 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:20 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:17 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:12 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game?
There was an early interaction between HF and Rayn that struck me as off, but I kind of came out of it thinking that Rayn was scum... Because they kind of amicably came to the same idea despite seemingly starting from different view points (this is when Rayn switches his vote off of ES, then back on.
I don't agree with Pandain, I think ES being willing to only lynch me shows a lack of understanding of what town players are seeing in the game right now and I'm a pretty safe resting spot right now. Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch? If you can't explain this, you can't vote her. 1) Grack could be mafia 2) She could think I'm a more viable lynch 3) She's under a lot of pressure and people under pressure do a lot of crazy things they wouldn't do otherwise. 4) She's afraid of giving more associations, so she's locking in all of her reads (this actually is pretty well in line with her play since I joined the wagon) The issue here is, I don't think anything a player does under pressure or after a slip matters 1. Then vote Grack 2. Objectively not true. 3. The vote count was 3-4 Grack-ES. It's not a difficult choice to make as mafia to join the counterlynch. You can't cite pressure. 4. If ES gets lynched, we still know nothing on Grack regardless. What slip have you seen? 1) No 2) It is if he decides to jump in and play 3) what? 4) shrug
Why would ES think you are a more viable lynch? There were no votes on you. There were 3 votes on Grack. Only Jock has had some suspicions of you.
Answer me this.
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Eywa looking suspicious here
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On July 03 2019 21:32 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:27 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:25 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:20 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:17 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:12 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game?
There was an early interaction between HF and Rayn that struck me as off, but I kind of came out of it thinking that Rayn was scum... Because they kind of amicably came to the same idea despite seemingly starting from different view points (this is when Rayn switches his vote off of ES, then back on.
I don't agree with Pandain, I think ES being willing to only lynch me shows a lack of understanding of what town players are seeing in the game right now and I'm a pretty safe resting spot right now. Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch? If you can't explain this, you can't vote her. 1) Grack could be mafia 2) She could think I'm a more viable lynch 3) She's under a lot of pressure and people under pressure do a lot of crazy things they wouldn't do otherwise. 4) She's afraid of giving more associations, so she's locking in all of her reads (this actually is pretty well in line with her play since I joined the wagon) The issue here is, I don't think anything a player does under pressure or after a slip matters 1. Then vote Grack 2. Objectively not true. 3. The vote count was 3-4 Grack-ES. It's not a difficult choice to make as mafia to join the counterlynch. You can't cite pressure. 4. If ES gets lynched, we still know nothing on Grack regardless. What slip have you seen? 1) No 2) It is if he decides to jump in and play 3) what? 4) shrug Why would ES think you are a more viable lynch? There were no votes on you. There were 3 votes on Grack. Only Jock has had some suspicions of you. Answer me this. If you can't answer it yourself then you are admitting that ES is playing against her win condition as either alignment... Why would she do that?
If she's town, her play makes complete sense. She does not think Grack is scum. She thinks you are scum. Yes, no one really thinks you are scum, but maybe she can convince people. She is not interested in "just surviving" per se, she is interested in lynching scum.
If she's mafia. Her play makes no sense. She is trying to push someone who almost no one thinks is scum when she's up for lynch and there's another viable counterwagon. In fact, there's only one viable counterwagon.
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On July 03 2019 21:35 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:32 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:27 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:25 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:20 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:17 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:12 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game?
There was an early interaction between HF and Rayn that struck me as off, but I kind of came out of it thinking that Rayn was scum... Because they kind of amicably came to the same idea despite seemingly starting from different view points (this is when Rayn switches his vote off of ES, then back on.
I don't agree with Pandain, I think ES being willing to only lynch me shows a lack of understanding of what town players are seeing in the game right now and I'm a pretty safe resting spot right now. Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch? If you can't explain this, you can't vote her. 1) Grack could be mafia 2) She could think I'm a more viable lynch 3) She's under a lot of pressure and people under pressure do a lot of crazy things they wouldn't do otherwise. 4) She's afraid of giving more associations, so she's locking in all of her reads (this actually is pretty well in line with her play since I joined the wagon) The issue here is, I don't think anything a player does under pressure or after a slip matters 1. Then vote Grack 2. Objectively not true. 3. The vote count was 3-4 Grack-ES. It's not a difficult choice to make as mafia to join the counterlynch. You can't cite pressure. 4. If ES gets lynched, we still know nothing on Grack regardless. What slip have you seen? 1) No 2) It is if he decides to jump in and play 3) what? 4) shrug Why would ES think you are a more viable lynch? There were no votes on you. There were 3 votes on Grack. Only Jock has had some suspicions of you. Answer me this. If you can't answer it yourself then you are admitting that ES is playing against her win condition as either alignment... Why would she do that? If she's town, her play makes complete sense. She does not think Grack is scum. She thinks you are scum. Yes, no one really thinks you are scum, but maybe she can convince people. She is not interested in "just surviving" per se, she is interested in lynching scum. If she's mafia. Her play makes no sense. She is trying to push someone who almost no one thinks is scum when she's up for lynch and there's another viable counterwagon. In fact, there's only one viable counterwagon.
Just answer this. What about this logic doesn't make sense?
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At least HF thinks both are scum, so he has some leeway. You do not.
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On July 03 2019 21:38 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:37 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:35 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:32 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:27 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:25 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:20 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:17 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:12 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game?
There was an early interaction between HF and Rayn that struck me as off, but I kind of came out of it thinking that Rayn was scum... Because they kind of amicably came to the same idea despite seemingly starting from different view points (this is when Rayn switches his vote off of ES, then back on.
I don't agree with Pandain, I think ES being willing to only lynch me shows a lack of understanding of what town players are seeing in the game right now and I'm a pretty safe resting spot right now. Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch? If you can't explain this, you can't vote her. 1) Grack could be mafia 2) She could think I'm a more viable lynch 3) She's under a lot of pressure and people under pressure do a lot of crazy things they wouldn't do otherwise. 4) She's afraid of giving more associations, so she's locking in all of her reads (this actually is pretty well in line with her play since I joined the wagon) The issue here is, I don't think anything a player does under pressure or after a slip matters 1. Then vote Grack 2. Objectively not true. 3. The vote count was 3-4 Grack-ES. It's not a difficult choice to make as mafia to join the counterlynch. You can't cite pressure. 4. If ES gets lynched, we still know nothing on Grack regardless. What slip have you seen? 1) No 2) It is if he decides to jump in and play 3) what? 4) shrug Why would ES think you are a more viable lynch? There were no votes on you. There were 3 votes on Grack. Only Jock has had some suspicions of you. Answer me this. If you can't answer it yourself then you are admitting that ES is playing against her win condition as either alignment... Why would she do that? If she's town, her play makes complete sense. She does not think Grack is scum. She thinks you are scum. Yes, no one really thinks you are scum, but maybe she can convince people. She is not interested in "just surviving" per se, she is interested in lynching scum. If she's mafia. Her play makes no sense. She is trying to push someone who almost no one thinks is scum when she's up for lynch and there's another viable counterwagon. In fact, there's only one viable counterwagon. Just answer this. What about this logic doesn't make sense? All of it.
Elaborate. Because you're alone thinking this.
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I'm going to vote Eywa until he starts talking.
jock wanna join me? I'll vote with you HF at eod if ES is the only other option.
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You think HF should not be able to get away with tunneling and poor logic.
Eywa should 100% not be able to get away with even worse logic and refusing to explain himself.
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On July 03 2019 21:46 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:44 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:40 Jockmcplop wrote:On July 03 2019 21:37 Pandain wrote:
At least HF thinks both are scum, so he has some leeway. You do not. Like I said, if they are both scum this logic proves even more that ES wouldn't take this action. Its literally a loss for mafia as soon as she flips. This is incorrect, but probably the perception. Honestly, both are ok plays as either alignment. You can gambit on yourself or you can counter wagon. It has nothing to do with alignment, it's just about playstyle. We shouldn't all lose our minds because someone chose gambit on themselves... How is this incorrect???? If ES fails to switch to grack, then flips red, we immediately kill grack because basic logic says so. If they are both mafia, mafia loses. I can't see how on earth you can possibly think otherwise.
+1
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I don't think your idea that "The optimal town play is the optimal scum play" is true. Or even close to true.
For instance, ES will almost certainly get lynched if she tries to continue pushing for you. As town, it makes sense if she truly believes you are scum. As scum, it doesn't make sense, becuase she will almost certainly get lynched.
Let me give you a counter example.
Let's say we are playing a massive game, with 20 players and 5 scum. If one scum member buses and lynches all the 4 other scum, that's optimal town play. Is that optimal scum play? Of course not.
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Townies want to kill scum. End of story.
Mafia want to survive. End of story. Appearing townie is just a means to an end, but it is not the main priority.
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I don't agree with you at all but you explained yourself and I think you're town.
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I have extremely strong townreads on Jock, ES, Rayn, and Eywa.
Meaning I think the last two scum are between Conv, Trfell, HF, and Grack.
I actually have a very slight town read on HF too.
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Briefly skimming Trfel's last town games and previous two mafia games (albeit admittedly 3-4 years ago), they seem more similar to his town games.
His posts seem genuine and he's making some good points.
I think the last two scum are Conversion and Grack. Maybe HF.
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On July 03 2019 22:15 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 22:09 Pandain wrote:
I have extremely strong townreads on Jock, ES, Rayn, and Eywa.
Meaning I think the last two scum are between Conv, Trfell, HF, and Grack.
I actually have a very slight town read on HF too. That's quite the turnaround
No it's pretty consistent. You are the only one I was wavering on, but after my conversation with you I think you're being honest and sincere. I never thought HF was really that scummy.
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You have horrible cognitive biases. You are already reading into her play that she is "slowly eroding her town read on grack", as if most people even plan that methodically. She said originally that she was down to lynch Grack, then she changed her mind and said she didn't think he was scum. That's far from "slowly eroding her town read". If anything, it's the opposite.
ES is mafia ,Grack is town: Congrats, ES gets lynched because no one is ever going to vote Eywa. You're right -Great! ES looks slightly better in Grack's eyes, the only one she would look better to (because no one else knows Grack's alignment). Too bad she's already dead.
ES is Mafia , Grack is Mafia : Okay, makes sense
But if we're doing this logic, and you think Grack is scum anyway, we should lynch Grack first. Because it's extremely unlikely Eywa cannot be scum if Grack is town.
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EPT
