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The Most Sucky Case You Will Ever See - Read on Pandain changing for no reason
+ Show Spoiler [Explanation] +Early on, Holyflare was suspicious of Pandain: On July 02 2019 16:28 Holyflare wrote:
I don't like Pandain deciding to town read trfel, hearing trfel say his read wasn't that strong but THEN saying "I don't think trfel would make such a strong town read as mafia because that ties his hands."
Feels like you ignored everything trfel was saying. Don't hate the picking up on grack and conversion later but the trfel thing, especially downgrading your read after for something not relevant at all (the bolded thing you highlighted) looks like you're just winging your read and aren't thinking it through. On July 02 2019 17:25 Holyflare wrote:
(...)
Nothing really unique to add. Disappointed nobody even quoted my pandain post, I thought it was quite good. On July 03 2019 20:07 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 19:26 Jockmcplop wrote:Here's a spreadsheet, it was really easy to make this time, please tell me if I've got anything wrong. ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/Azlh232.png) This is wrong, I quite clearly called out pandain and you piggybacked it but it's not here. Me being lazy doesn't make me mafia though. Later, he posted and said Pandain was town, for no reason: On July 04 2019 01:37 Holyflare wrote:
I think Pandain and eywa are town for what it's worth. I wouldn't clear rayn because his logic doesn't really hold up but I don't want to get in a shit fight about it so I'll ignore it and see how it goes. I got the feeling jock was overzealous townie that thought he had something on me and that looked good but he's pushed it a smidge too far for my liking so I'm downgrading him.
Conversion/grack/es/rayn/trfl/jock
It's a big list but I really haven't given a shit about the game until now so I'll narrow it down when I'm home. - Evolution of reads
+ Show Spoiler [Explanation] +On July 04 2019 01:37 Holyflare wrote:
I think Pandain and eywa are town for what it's worth. I wouldn't clear rayn because his logic doesn't really hold up but I don't want to get in a shit fight about it so I'll ignore it and see how it goes. I got the feeling jock was overzealous townie that thought he had something on me and that looked good but he's pushed it a smidge too far for my liking so I'm downgrading him.
Conversion/grack/es/rayn/trfl/jock
It's a big list but I really haven't given a shit about the game until now so I'll narrow it down when I'm home. Let's primarily work from this post, as this is the first real time Holyflare has provided reads in this game and it is also when he says he is starting to take the game seriously. Seventeen minutes later: On July 04 2019 01:54 Holyflare wrote:
If I had to choose between Grack or ES for a lynch I'd probably choose grack tbh. His filter is void of literally aby content. People are town, he guesses I could maybe be mafia. Es is town because of bathtub? Drunk posting that doesn't even look drunk?
Dumb and probably mafia. Honestly this just feels lazy. Seventeen minutes after having a large POE list with everyone seemingly equal, he comes up with a probable mafia read. I don't understand the progression from pushing Eversince to a POE to scumreading Grackaroni back to voting for Eversince? Holyflare clearly said he thought both Eversince and Grackaroni were mafia: On July 03 2019 19:12 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 18:12 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 18:08 Holyflare wrote:On July 03 2019 17:51 Pandain wrote:
I don't think ES is crazy/meta enough to do something like that. It's obvious she's been desperate to survive, if she was mafia she would jump at the opportunity to lynch someone she has expressed doubts about before.
@conf, HF, Rayn please comment on this. I don't agree with your conclusion. She's meekly soft defended grack all game and then sprinkled "hesitance" and done nothing with it. They could easily be mafia together, or she could know he's town. Both things point to a mafia es because grack looks absolutely shit and a free lynch for literally anyone to hop onto. She's said several times that she might be up for lynching Grack. It would not be suspicious at all for her to vote Grack if she thought it was the only way to not get lynched. But she refused to do this. The fact she refuses to lynch someone who you think "Looks absolutely shit and a free lynch" should strike you as townie, particuarly when it's the only way she could avoid getting lynched. It also doesn't matter if she knows he's town. If she's mafia, she's trying to survive. You still can't justify mafia ES not joining the grack train. I can because I can simultaneously think Grack is mafia and do. Really it's just the POE list here that is rather out of place. Why does he go from having two strong scumreads, presumably solving the game, then start taking the game seriously only to instantaneously arrive at the same two strong scumreads? - Not doing anything at End of Day
+ Show Spoiler [Explanation] +To me this is the strongest point. About two and a half hours before the lynch, Holyflare says that he would slightly prefer lynching Grackaroni over Eversince: On July 04 2019 01:54 Holyflare wrote:
If I had to choose between Grack or ES for a lynch I'd probably choose grack tbh. His filter is void of literally aby content. People are town, he guesses I could maybe be mafia. Es is town because of bathtub? Drunk posting that doesn't even look drunk?
Dumb and probably mafia. Day 1 vote count Vote Count, Eight Minutes to EoD Eversince: (5) raynpelikoneet, Eywa-, Holyflare, Conversion, Grackaroni Grackaroni: (4) Trfel, Pandain, jockmcplop, Eversince If Holyflare changed his vote to Grackaroni, Grackaroni would be lynched instead of Eversince. Let's assume that Eversince's posts and discussion with Holyflare caused Holyflare to change his mind and prefer lynching Eversince to lynching Grackaroni. But even still, Holyflare very obviously preferred lynching Grackaroni to lynching anyone else. With obvious shenanigans coming (evidence to follow), Holyflare here could either: push hard for an Eversince lynch to try and make sure he gets his preferred lynch, or vote for Grackaroni, a lynch he is happy with, to prevent shenanigans off of his preferred lynch targets. Posts in the thread in the last eight minutes of Day 1, making it clear that shenanigans were incoming: On July 04 2019 04:24 Pandain wrote:
I'm strongly for a Conv lynch (if Grack won't get lynched) just because I have town reads on everyone except Grack and him.
Jock is way too active. Rayn is way too active. HF could be scum but seems townie.
Trfel is playing like his town games. Eywa was really townie with his exhcnage with me.
Who else wants to lynch Conv (or grack) On July 04 2019 04:26 Jockmcplop wrote:
Pandain switch to conversion with me On July 04 2019 04:26 Pandain wrote:I switched. Who else wants to join? On July 04 2019 04:27 Pandain wrote:
If ES and Trfel switch ES is saved
Grack vote conv Instead of voting for Grackaroni or persuading people not to switch votes, Holyflare argues with Eversince, accomplishing neither of these goals. He does make one post directed to the thread as a whole: On July 04 2019 04:29 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2019 04:28 Pandain wrote:
HF no idea why you're talking when you're never gonna change your mind in a million years Because I know you tools will do some stupid shit and she won't get lynched. But if he really wanted to prevent the shenanigans and the Conversion lynch, it would have been much more effective to push for Eversince and talk to the people present, instead of arguing with his extremely strong scumread. Holyflare carries a lot of influence and generally gets his way in mafia games, but here it feels like he just kinda let it happen.
- Arguing with his strong scumread, Eversince
+ Show Spoiler [Explanation] +I'm not going to provide quotes on this one, there are way too many. Choose a random page in the thread and you'll probably be over your head in examples.
Holyflare has spent a very significant amount of his filter arguing with his strong scumread. It's fairly well-known that arguing with scumreads isn't recommended, as they are likely mafia, so of course they will lie and never agree with you and have no town explanation for your points. Of course it is necessary to discuss with scumreads to help confirm your read, but Holyflare in this game does this in great excess, I've never seen him do this before. Very rarely does Holyflare address the thread, even in his large case (the largest case I've seen Holyflare make, by far), he's just trying to convince Eversince that she is mafia.
Conclusion: I dunno, frankly this case kinda sucks. But Holyflare's play this game still strikes me as odd, I can't shake that. Not sure if I ever will. He's probably just town and he'll probably just get night killed sometime soon and I can breathe a sigh of relief, but whatever. At least my case looks pretty, right?
@Holyflare, please feel free to address the points I've brought up and help me to understand. If you're town it would make me feel a whole lot better about you at least. No need to explain a ton, I know my case is weak.
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On July 04 2019 17:04 Holyflare wrote:
You're right it sucks :D I guess we'll do this the old-fashioned way where I just wait for you to die. Yay me.
Honestly building long posts is how I think sometimes.
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On July 03 2019 15:53 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 07:52 Trfel wrote:On July 02 2019 15:36 Pandain wrote:On July 02 2019 10:37 Trfel wrote:On July 02 2019 10:02 raynpelikoneet wrote:
That's something i can possibly understand. My problem is pretty much the wording because as someone already said the mafia game is old and i don't think there is any reason why ES as mafia couldn't start like last game today. Like i mean the wording since for you also -- as you said, last game you wanted to see if she could play like that as mafia. Why is it not the case now?
Idk if my explanation is clear enoguh. I'm not sure if I fully understand what you are getting at but I'll try... Last game I noticed a difference in Eversince's play to her last mafia game, but I wasn't sure if the difference was caused by a change in alignment or the passage of time, so I didn't think much of it. Then it became clear she was town, leading me to believe that the change in alignment is the primary reason for the posting style difference mentioned previously. Yes, this is an assumption, but I think it's an okay assumption because other reasons also support the townread. In this game, Eversince's play is like her town game last game and different from her mafia game. And moreso, the difference is in a way that is harder to replicate as mafia. I know for me and many others, posting as mafia is difficult, and as a result the posts feel rigid, forced, and dry. Posts tend to be a little longer, more focused and less carefree and spontaneous. This contrast is how I was able to townread Tumblewood early on in a previous game and that townread nearly managed to win the game. Going to remove my townread on Trfels. The bolded phrase seems very definitive and certain that ES is town. (...) On July 02 2019 16:24 Pandain wrote:On July 02 2019 16:18 Trfel wrote:On July 02 2019 15:36 Pandain wrote:On July 02 2019 10:37 Trfel wrote:On July 02 2019 10:02 raynpelikoneet wrote:
That's something i can possibly understand. My problem is pretty much the wording because as someone already said the mafia game is old and i don't think there is any reason why ES as mafia couldn't start like last game today. Like i mean the wording since for you also -- as you said, last game you wanted to see if she could play like that as mafia. Why is it not the case now?
Idk if my explanation is clear enoguh. I'm not sure if I fully understand what you are getting at but I'll try... Last game I noticed a difference in Eversince's play to her last mafia game, but I wasn't sure if the difference was caused by a change in alignment or the passage of time, so I didn't think much of it. Then it became clear she was town, leading me to believe that the change in alignment is the primary reason for the posting style difference mentioned previously. Yes, this is an assumption, but I think it's an okay assumption because other reasons also support the townread. In this game, Eversince's play is like her town game last game and different from her mafia game. And moreso, the difference is in a way that is harder to replicate as mafia. I know for me and many others, posting as mafia is difficult, and as a result the posts feel rigid, forced, and dry. Posts tend to be a little longer, more focused and less carefree and spontaneous. This contrast is how I was able to townread Tumblewood early on in a previous game and that townread nearly managed to win the game. Going to remove my townread on Trfels. The bolded phrase seems very definitive and certain that ES is town. Trfels, what do you think about the fact that ES's last mafia game was 4 years ago and she could be playing extremely differently than her previous game? I know my first mafia game this year was completely different than how I used to play mafia back in 2013. Sorry, but what does the bolded section have in relevance to this? It was poorly worded, but what it meant was "after Day 1 when Eversince was obviously town/endgame when alignments were revealed". To answer your question, her mafia game is different from her town play in a way that is difficult to replicate. Some people, a lot of people really, have trouble posting as mafia and have trouble fitting in. As a result, their posts feel more dry and formal, and socially they are more withdrawn; they focus on reads and pushes without truly getting involved or engaging much. It's not as simple as posting more, it's learning to socially engage and interact in a meaningful and relaxed way as mafia, which is really hard to learn and is unlikely to randomly change, even over time (especially without practice). Am I making sense? Oh I'm a bad reader. I thought you were talking about this game. [b]@Pandain[b], I really don't get this progression. Help me understand? You were townreading me, then you went to a slight townread, then you downgraded to null. Sure, whatever. What I don't get is that to explain the slight townread changing to a null, you quoted this post and bolded a phrase, shown above. And then when that turned out to be not what you thought it was, you just left it. So help me explain, how did the quote in question affect your read on me, and when it turned out to be irrelevant why did your read not adjust? But I do like Pandain's post about Grackaroni. So I'm hesitant on him currently. You said something like "after it became clear ES was town" and I thought you were referencing this game. That would have been a crazy definitive opinion on this game so early in the game. But it turns out you were talking about ES last game so its null Pandain, my problem here is that this explanation is actually false, and in more ways than one.
First, you posted your townread before I made the post in question anyway, so why does the post in question even have relevance? You even acknowledged that my townread wasn't so strong well before this point.
Second, you changed your read on me from town to null before realizing that we were talking about different games. So that shouldn't affect your earlier post at all.
I get that the initial point isn't that strong to begin with, but I really don't like this explanation, it's completely impossible. Does anyone else see this?
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Thanks Holyflare, appreciate you humoring me.
@Pandain, I still don't get it but honestly I'm so tired I don't feel like talking about it tonight. It's probably not a big deal. I reserve the right to come back to this later if I feel like it though.
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My only concern about Eywa- is that sometimes it feels like Eywa- is more concerned about looking good or being superior to everyone else, rather than finding who is mafia. Does anyone else see this?
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On July 03 2019 04:35 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 04:30 Eversince wrote:
Actual to elaborate a little more on my Ewya point.
She will fight tooth and nail and still say nothing with Rayn. But there is like 15 pg of content and I'm the easy vote, so just kill ES, dump everything else, and try to appear like your doing something. I don't think you're the only good lynch, but I think you're the most likely to get lynched of the narrow pool of acceptable lynches. The difference is negligible, so we can say you're the best lynch... or tied for the slot at least. @Eywa-, who were the other people in your lynch pool at this point, and why?
I take it back, this also bugs me a bit about Eywa-. In 40 minutes they go from voting Eversince because if she's mafia the game is easy to calling Eversince caught scum, then back to voting for Eversince just because she is most likely to be lynched. Hm.
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Here, after the holiday. Skimmed the last several pages but need to reread. Still have absolutely no idea who is mafia this game 
Remind me what you think currently?
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Uh, I thought Grackaroni and Holyflare died (both town) and Pandain is the vigilante?
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Frick, just realized we are in MYLO. Honestly I wouldn't mind a no lynch to gain extra time, though that's kinda up to Pandain.
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On July 05 2019 04:46 Pandain wrote:
Yeah I'm vig. Yeah I'm disillusioned and probably won't talk for rest of day. I dunno what to think. Raynpelikoneet, Eywa-, jockmcplop, Eversince. Two of the four are mafia. I need to take another look at raynpelikoneet, he's got a strong scum game and I feel like something like that is happening. Frankly it feels like all four of you have strong scum games which means it's probably a lost cause but I will keep trying!
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On July 05 2019 14:41 Eversince wrote:
Pfft, I'm just hope I get lynched tomorrow for playing so bad. I really kind of deserve it at this point! If you are town and you get lynched town loses. It's MYLO, mislynch and you lose.
Gosh the dumbtells, I really don't feel like Eversince is mafia here, maybe I'm being played like a fiddle I don't know what to think.
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This game sucks and it's a loss and it's all my fault Sorry everyone
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On July 05 2019 14:56 Eversince wrote:
Meh, it's ok I think. I get your logic. We are going to lose if I don't die anyway because I lose hotspot tomorrow and people will waffle me to the end of time. Right, forgot about that.. probably best not to no lynch then.
Well personally I'd rather not go down without a fight, I hope you agree? For the sake of the game more than anything, or this would be a pretty lame one. So if you are town, and to be honest I still kinda think you are for some reason, if you could show that you are town before losing your hotspot that would be great? Ideally by demonstrating who is mafia.
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Okay, I nominate myself as town leader, as Pandain is taking a break and I'm the only person I know I can trust.
As town, we need to vote together. I currently think that Eversince is town, I will re-evaluate but unless I see things very differently I will stick to this until End of Day. However if by then I (and her) are unable to convince you that Eversince is likely town, I will vote her with you to consolidate and make sure we vote together and hope that I am wrong.
Sound fair?
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On July 04 2019 22:09 Holyflare wrote:
I don't think Jock is mafia, I don't think Rayn is mafia. I probably don't think Eywa is mafia.
Trfel is really just a person that exists... I remember liking his posts when he posts them but he's so background and he ninja voted at deadline. Tried to look at Holyflare's filter for his reads and it just ends up with me being mafia. Yay
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On July 05 2019 15:12 Jockmcplop wrote:
I mean unless there's bussing happening (which there might be) the mafia team is trfel and es I'm not mafia and I refuse to be lynched, better try something else.
Judging purely by gamestate here it makes sense to me that raynpelikoneet is mafia, it feels like mafia has a decent amount of thread pull and influence. Honestly it makes me think of raynpelikoneet/Eywa- or raynpelikoneet/jockmcplop. I have no other real reason for why raynpelikoneet is mafia though
Jockmcplop, can I ask you why I should be towreading you? (not a challenge, honest question)
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Come to think of it, they killed Holyflare despite him being highly suspected. I wonder if part of that was because he was starting to doubt his scumread of Eversince?
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I'm currently doing a deep dive of raynpelikoneet's filter but @Jockmcplop, at a glance I think I hesitantly agree with you. I'm currently leaning towards lynching him today.
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EPT
