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On May 01 2019 19:58 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2019 19:27 VisceraEyes wrote:
Liiiike if FF were the other wagon and not MZ that would just be super. I'm with you here, FF is setting off alarm bells for me what are your thoughts on no-lynch this cycle? I've actually always been of the opinion that a no-lynch on day 1 is actually really good for town because it reduces the variability, especially in low post count games like this one.
What do you define as "good"? Preserving the number of town? Reducing the likelihood that we hit town with the lynch? To what end? If we don't use the lynch, mafia don't get reduced. That's the short and long of it. Mafia are NOT going to NOT kill someone, so no, I don't think we should no-lynch.
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On May 01 2019 20:29 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2019 20:25 wherebugsgo wrote:On May 01 2019 20:17 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Well Koshi is town.
Idk what to think about jock honestly. I read him like grack did earlier but i dislike his re-entry a lot. Thankfully you can murder him without me. Bugs still scum. for how much our opinions align it's remarkable you think I am scum I dont really even think you have any opinions since you write a lot of words but dont really have any hard opinions.
hey, to each their own. I just gave you enough information to figure out what my opinions are in the post you just replied to; just because I don't advertise my opinions the same way you do doesn't mean I don't have them.
Also you should probably already know I'm a verbose poster and often ask people questions directly to actually get them to participate. Half of the players (literally) haven't voted yet, so if you have any better ideas for changing that I'd be glad to help.
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On May 01 2019 20:56 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2019 19:58 wherebugsgo wrote:On May 01 2019 19:27 VisceraEyes wrote:
Liiiike if FF were the other wagon and not MZ that would just be super. I'm with you here, FF is setting off alarm bells for me what are your thoughts on no-lynch this cycle? I've actually always been of the opinion that a no-lynch on day 1 is actually really good for town because it reduces the variability, especially in low post count games like this one. What do you define as "good"? Preserving the number of town? Reducing the likelihood that we hit town with the lynch? To what end? If we don't use the lynch, mafia don't get reduced. That's the short and long of it. Mafia are NOT going to NOT kill someone, so no, I don't think we should no-lynch.
this:
On May 01 2019 20:23 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2019 20:01 Koshi wrote:On May 01 2019 19:58 wherebugsgo wrote:On May 01 2019 19:27 VisceraEyes wrote:
Liiiike if FF were the other wagon and not MZ that would just be super. I'm with you here, FF is setting off alarm bells for me what are your thoughts on no-lynch this cycle? I've actually always been of the opinion that a no-lynch on day 1 is actually really good for town because it reduces the variability, especially in low post count games like this one. No lynching is horrible. People need to get out of tunnel. Info is good. Only good if you dont lose lynch later. info is great, but IMO mislynching day 1 is not worth whatever minimal info you get if the game only has a few pages of posts/low participation. You still get info on the NK, for instance. It's worth thinking about from a balance perspective for this game as well. Usually 13p games are 10 townies and 3 mafia, and that already tends to be a bit town-favoured here. This is a 14 player game so the only options are 11/3 or 10/4; the balance will be swingy either way (I think 10/4 might work somewhat better with more town blues but who knows what the hosts decided) If it's 11/3, mislynching is probably okay because town has lots of room for mistakes and the no lynch could be done on a different day, but I think it's still better to do it early. Worst case (noting starts of phases) N1: 10/3 D2: 9/3 N2: 8/3 D3: 7/3 N3: 6/3 D4: 5/3 MYLO N4: 4/3 -> lose No-lynching at any point gives you an extra cycle. If it's 10/4, worst case looks like this: N1: 9/4 D2: 8/4 N2: 7/4 D3: 6/4 MYLO N4: 5/4 -> lose Again, no-lynching at any point gives us an extra cycle. If there's a vig in the setup and they miss, we lose a half-cycle, so MYLO becomes LYLO and no-lynch has no benefit (I think, unless my pea brain did something wrong)
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
On May 01 2019 20:52 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2019 20:33 Pandain wrote:
@Wherebugsgo what were you trying to get from asking Jock about incognoto's guide? You were very insistant on it and it seemed like the most useless questions I've ever seen in my life. I wanted two things; one was to see whether Jock's tone and response style would be natural and the other would be whether he would actually tell me something believable. Given that Jock is very new I would expect some synthesis of Incognito's guide because he would have been bound to have read it recently. If he's town and someone in the game is asking him, I'd expect him to take the time to understand why (and reread if necessary) especially when I was indicating to him that if he didn't shape up he'd likely die. His response that followed afterward indicated that he probably lied, because even if you skim that guide literally the #1 takeaway for townies is to establish innocence. This is also why I phrased the question the way I did. Emphasis mine: Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 15:49 Incognito wrote:... II. Town- Defining Mafia Characteristics
- Priority #1: Establishing Your Innocence
- Reading the Thread
- Posting
- Voting
- Blue Roles/Roleclaims
- Bad Townie or Mafia?
... Priority #1: Establishing Your Innocence So, you know how to look for mafia and are ready to smoke them out. But unfortunately, just knowing how to find mafia is not good enough. The other part of the equation is convincing the town that you’ve found them. While you may be correct, it takes more than your own vote to properly seal the deal and kill off the mafia. As a townie, your number 1 priority is to establish your innocence.... by itself I don't think the lie is super alignment-indicative, but the fact that Jock actually answered that question about the guide but chose not to provide reads, in response to the same post where I specifically asked for them, is. He continued to attempt to stall for time afterward and has since disappeared. There was also no point for town Jock to ignore posts and ask HF if HF thought he's out of character compared to when he was mafia (what kind of question is that? it accomplishes nothing and doesn't even make sense, HF's post was clearly about Jock being out of character when compared to being town) and saying this: Show nested quote +
Or I was taking the piss because the first page or so is always boring....
Reads incoming I've got some time now
rather than just coming out with them.
Why didn't you just say this in the first place? :p
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On May 01 2019 21:15 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2019 20:52 wherebugsgo wrote:On May 01 2019 20:33 Pandain wrote:
@Wherebugsgo what were you trying to get from asking Jock about incognoto's guide? You were very insistant on it and it seemed like the most useless questions I've ever seen in my life. I wanted two things; one was to see whether Jock's tone and response style would be natural and the other would be whether he would actually tell me something believable. Given that Jock is very new I would expect some synthesis of Incognito's guide because he would have been bound to have read it recently. If he's town and someone in the game is asking him, I'd expect him to take the time to understand why (and reread if necessary) especially when I was indicating to him that if he didn't shape up he'd likely die. His response that followed afterward indicated that he probably lied, because even if you skim that guide literally the #1 takeaway for townies is to establish innocence. This is also why I phrased the question the way I did. Emphasis mine: On January 09 2012 15:49 Incognito wrote:... II. Town- Defining Mafia Characteristics
- Priority #1: Establishing Your Innocence
- Reading the Thread
- Posting
- Voting
- Blue Roles/Roleclaims
- Bad Townie or Mafia?
... Priority #1: Establishing Your Innocence So, you know how to look for mafia and are ready to smoke them out. But unfortunately, just knowing how to find mafia is not good enough. The other part of the equation is convincing the town that you’ve found them. While you may be correct, it takes more than your own vote to properly seal the deal and kill off the mafia. As a townie, your number 1 priority is to establish your innocence.... by itself I don't think the lie is super alignment-indicative, but the fact that Jock actually answered that question about the guide but chose not to provide reads, in response to the same post where I specifically asked for them, is. He continued to attempt to stall for time afterward and has since disappeared. There was also no point for town Jock to ignore posts and ask HF if HF thought he's out of character compared to when he was mafia (what kind of question is that? it accomplishes nothing and doesn't even make sense, HF's post was clearly about Jock being out of character when compared to being town) and saying this:
Or I was taking the piss because the first page or so is always boring....
Reads incoming I've got some time now
rather than just coming out with them. Why didn't you just say this in the first place? :p
because I found it unlikely that explaining it to you would change my read on you
whereas now we have some evidence that Pandain cares about figuring out what's going on
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
On May 01 2019 21:19 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2019 21:15 Holyflare wrote:On May 01 2019 20:52 wherebugsgo wrote:On May 01 2019 20:33 Pandain wrote:
@Wherebugsgo what were you trying to get from asking Jock about incognoto's guide? You were very insistant on it and it seemed like the most useless questions I've ever seen in my life. I wanted two things; one was to see whether Jock's tone and response style would be natural and the other would be whether he would actually tell me something believable. Given that Jock is very new I would expect some synthesis of Incognito's guide because he would have been bound to have read it recently. If he's town and someone in the game is asking him, I'd expect him to take the time to understand why (and reread if necessary) especially when I was indicating to him that if he didn't shape up he'd likely die. His response that followed afterward indicated that he probably lied, because even if you skim that guide literally the #1 takeaway for townies is to establish innocence. This is also why I phrased the question the way I did. Emphasis mine: On January 09 2012 15:49 Incognito wrote:... II. Town- Defining Mafia Characteristics
- Priority #1: Establishing Your Innocence
- Reading the Thread
- Posting
- Voting
- Blue Roles/Roleclaims
- Bad Townie or Mafia?
... Priority #1: Establishing Your Innocence So, you know how to look for mafia and are ready to smoke them out. But unfortunately, just knowing how to find mafia is not good enough. The other part of the equation is convincing the town that you’ve found them. While you may be correct, it takes more than your own vote to properly seal the deal and kill off the mafia. As a townie, your number 1 priority is to establish your innocence.... by itself I don't think the lie is super alignment-indicative, but the fact that Jock actually answered that question about the guide but chose not to provide reads, in response to the same post where I specifically asked for them, is. He continued to attempt to stall for time afterward and has since disappeared. There was also no point for town Jock to ignore posts and ask HF if HF thought he's out of character compared to when he was mafia (what kind of question is that? it accomplishes nothing and doesn't even make sense, HF's post was clearly about Jock being out of character when compared to being town) and saying this:
Or I was taking the piss because the first page or so is always boring....
Reads incoming I've got some time now
rather than just coming out with them. Why didn't you just say this in the first place? :p because I found it unlikely that explaining it to you would change my read on you whereas now we have some evidence that Pandain cares about figuring out what's going on
Have you read Incognito's mafia guide?
Emphasis mine:
+ Show Spoiler +
Priority #1: Establishing Your Innocence
So, you know how to look for mafia and are ready to smoke them out. But unfortunately, just knowing how to find mafia is not good enough. The other part of the equation is convincing the town that you’ve found them. While you may be correct, it takes more than your own vote to properly seal the deal and kill off the mafia.
As a townie, your number 1 priority is to establish your innocence.
Why? Establishing your innocence does three things:
It gives you a credible platform from which you can push your agenda
It reduces the mafia’s options for pushing their agenda - they can’t attack you without some serious consequences
It reduces the number of viable mafia candidates - if the town thinks you are innocent that’s one less person to worry about
To elaborate:
1) It is hard to get people to listen to you if they are unsure of your motives. There are times where townies will ignore persuasive evidence based on an (irrational) fear that you might be pulling the wool over their eyes. Establishing your innocence allows you to focus on hunting the mafia instead of wasting energy defending yourself.
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
Jock ff is a fine pool to lynch into. If you want to no lynch do it later when we have more complete information to solve the puzzle. Silly to do it when there's only posts to talk about.
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On May 01 2019 21:23 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2019 21:19 wherebugsgo wrote:On May 01 2019 21:15 Holyflare wrote:On May 01 2019 20:52 wherebugsgo wrote:On May 01 2019 20:33 Pandain wrote:
@Wherebugsgo what were you trying to get from asking Jock about incognoto's guide? You were very insistant on it and it seemed like the most useless questions I've ever seen in my life. I wanted two things; one was to see whether Jock's tone and response style would be natural and the other would be whether he would actually tell me something believable. Given that Jock is very new I would expect some synthesis of Incognito's guide because he would have been bound to have read it recently. If he's town and someone in the game is asking him, I'd expect him to take the time to understand why (and reread if necessary) especially when I was indicating to him that if he didn't shape up he'd likely die. His response that followed afterward indicated that he probably lied, because even if you skim that guide literally the #1 takeaway for townies is to establish innocence. This is also why I phrased the question the way I did. Emphasis mine: On January 09 2012 15:49 Incognito wrote:... II. Town- Defining Mafia Characteristics
- Priority #1: Establishing Your Innocence
- Reading the Thread
- Posting
- Voting
- Blue Roles/Roleclaims
- Bad Townie or Mafia?
... Priority #1: Establishing Your Innocence So, you know how to look for mafia and are ready to smoke them out. But unfortunately, just knowing how to find mafia is not good enough. The other part of the equation is convincing the town that you’ve found them. While you may be correct, it takes more than your own vote to properly seal the deal and kill off the mafia. As a townie, your number 1 priority is to establish your innocence.... by itself I don't think the lie is super alignment-indicative, but the fact that Jock actually answered that question about the guide but chose not to provide reads, in response to the same post where I specifically asked for them, is. He continued to attempt to stall for time afterward and has since disappeared. There was also no point for town Jock to ignore posts and ask HF if HF thought he's out of character compared to when he was mafia (what kind of question is that? it accomplishes nothing and doesn't even make sense, HF's post was clearly about Jock being out of character when compared to being town) and saying this:
Or I was taking the piss because the first page or so is always boring....
Reads incoming I've got some time now
rather than just coming out with them. Why didn't you just say this in the first place? :p because I found it unlikely that explaining it to you would change my read on you whereas now we have some evidence that Pandain cares about figuring out what's going on Have you read Incognito's mafia guide? Emphasis mine: + Show Spoiler +
Priority #1: Establishing Your Innocence
So, you know how to look for mafia and are ready to smoke them out. But unfortunately, just knowing how to find mafia is not good enough. The other part of the equation is convincing the town that you’ve found them. While you may be correct, it takes more than your own vote to properly seal the deal and kill off the mafia.
As a townie, your number 1 priority is to establish your innocence.
Why? Establishing your innocence does three things:
It gives you a credible platform from which you can push your agenda
It reduces the mafia’s options for pushing their agenda - they can’t attack you without some serious consequences
It reduces the number of viable mafia candidates - if the town thinks you are innocent that’s one less person to worry about
To elaborate:
1) It is hard to get people to listen to you if they are unsure of your motives. There are times where townies will ignore persuasive evidence based on an (irrational) fear that you might be pulling the wool over their eyes. Establishing your innocence allows you to focus on hunting the mafia instead of wasting energy defending yourself.
not sure if you're trolling me or telling me you think I'm scum. You and rayn both seem to have trouble reading me properly and at least if this game were hand balanced I'd have to chalk it up to one or both of you being scum. Too early to tell for sure though 
Anyway, my problem has always been that I establish my innocence regardless of alignment so it's really hard for me to tell why someone thinks I am scum. I don't recall anyone on the forum standing out as "oh if that person's in the game they'll definitely be able to tell my alignment!" for example. I've only been lynched a handful of times IIRC.
Jock ff is a fine pool to lynch into. If you want to no lynch do it later when we have more complete information to solve the puzzle. Silly to do it when there's only posts to talk about.
Yeah on reread I'm fine with either of these lynches. #3 and #4 would be Rels and MZ, in that order. Besides the 2 MIAs everyone else seems to have a decent chance of being town to me.
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United Kingdom10006 Posts
I'm voting Rels because surviving.
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Talk about sudden starts. Anyway, reporting in.
This is the most terrible post that stuck out to me so far.
On May 01 2019 01:27 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2019 01:12 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Suddenly even happier with my decision. Yeah vote me first. Why not? I already have a low enough of opinion of tl.net. First game - mafia - failed to spot it Second game - town - dead first night Third game... you get the picture. I guess I'm a wildcard since I have no meta for you guys to rely on. If you just vote for me you're justified cos I'm new and it saves having to look for scum. I'm not mafia by the way.
In the first game you had BC in your team, so you don't even know how good he is at finding mafia, the second game was themed and shouldn't even matter, maybe though you thought it was a standard.
You write off and ignore everything they said about you just complaining about roleclaims without doing much to offer in return and then say the reason you're a target is cause you're new which is just untrue.
Also noticeable is that you don't entertain the possibility that at least one of them could be mafia. You instantly assume they're both bad townies. Why?
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MZ stuff was just bleh and uninteresting. Why does it make him mafia if he says that he's glad nobody claimed scum yet?It's a wonky thing to say and that's about it. Maybe Bugs and FF can explain how saying that makes people scum cause I don't see it.
And if you're going to say that town MZ should be glad that people scumclaim, imagine how glad mafia MZ would be if it was townies scumclaiming like in 99 % of the cases, given that you are implying you would vote them off for those claims.
In summary, wary of FF cause not shitposting and looking more like a serious mafia FF with that vote.
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I'm going to bed and won't be around for the nightpost. Jock needs to be the lynch 100%. Besides that, I wanted to point out the following:
1. MZ claimed to be "obviously standing with the Jock suspicions crowd" but never actually voted
2. FF, as far as I can tell, doesn't play like this (i.e. actively lurk) as town. The only other factors I think might be relevant are that FF originally signed up as /replace and changed to /in, so worst case benefit of the doubt is that FF is low on time, but probably best to just pressure and see what happens
3. On reread rayn looks terrible. I actually was in agreement with some of rayn's opinions early on (#125) but on reread it seems most of the things rayn accuses me of are projections. Rayn's only actual scum read is me and it makes no sense + rayn hasn't committed to a vote yet with less than 6 hours remaining in the day.
my kill order ATM is
1. Jock
2. FF
3. Meapak
4. Rayn
Throw Rels instead of one of those people if both 1. Pandain/grack are right about Rels avoiding early game and 2. Rels shows up for some bs vote before EoD.
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I am confused about why Jock suddenly became an asshole in this thread when the last two games he was super nice and if anything apologetic. Also his blogs are fun to read so I'm sort of shocked. I don't think he's a bad lynch and might switch to him if the votes are close.
Also this is concerning:
[QUOTE]On May 01 2019 11:23 Jockmcplop wrote:
[QUOTE]On May 01 2019 10:35 wherebugsgo wrote:
[QUOTE]On May 01 2019 10:29 Jockmcplop wrote:
[QUOTE]On May 01 2019 08:54 Holyflare wrote:
Oh well nothing more to add really. I think jock is way out of character and the town read(s) are pretty unjustified here. [/QUOTE]
Out of character compared to when I was mafia?[/QUOTE]
You gonna ignore my previous post?
You should answer this, and don't even think about skipping any of the questions:
[quote]Can you define what makes people suspicious? What types of things are suspicious and why would they be indicators someone is mafia instead of town?
Have you read Incognito's guide? What do you think your #1 priority should be if you are a townie?[/quote]
Regardless of your alignment, at your current rate, you should know you're going to be dead.
In addition to that, let's see your reads.[/QUOTE]
#1 priority as town for me is finding scum.
And then proceedes to be super lukewarm about scum reads and doesn't scumhunt at all.
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FIXED POST
I am confused about why Jock suddenly became an asshole in this thread when the last two games he was super nice and if anything apologetic. Also his blogs are fun to read so I'm sort of shocked. I don't think he's a bad lynch and might switch to him if the votes are close.
Also this is concerning:
On May 01 2019 11:23 Jockmcplop wrote: Show nested quote +On May 01 2019 10:35 wherebugsgo wrote: On May 01 2019 10:29 Jockmcplop wrote: On May 01 2019 08:54 Holyflare wrote:
Oh well nothing more to add really. I think jock is way out of character and the town read(s) are pretty unjustified here. Out of character compared to when I was mafia? You gonna ignore my previous post? You should answer this, and don't even think about skipping any of the questions: Can you define what makes people suspicious? What types of things are suspicious and why would they be indicators someone is mafia instead of town?
Have you read Incognito's guide? What do you think your #1 priority should be if you are a townie? Regardless of your alignment, at your current rate, you should know you're going to be dead. In addition to that, let's see your reads. #1 priority as town for me is finding scum.
And then proceedes to be super lukewarm about scum reads and doesn't scumhunt at all.
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Fuck formatting is hard. Anyway originally I was lukewarm about him but now I think he's a good lynch especially for day 1.
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On May 01 2019 23:39 Vivax wrote:
MZ stuff was just bleh and uninteresting. Why does it make him mafia if he says that he's glad nobody claimed scum yet?It's a wonky thing to say and that's about it. Maybe Bugs and FF can explain how saying that makes people scum cause I don't see it.
And if you're going to say that town MZ should be glad that people scumclaim, imagine how glad mafia MZ would be if it was townies scumclaiming like in 99 % of the cases, given that you are implying you would vote them off for those claims.
In summary, wary of FF cause not shitposting and looking more like a serious mafia FF with that vote.
What is suspicious is when he says that he would lynch someone if they claimed scum, which is really stupid. But I think he said this last game and he was town so I guess it's null.
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Order of people who need to be lynched currently.
Jock
Rels
FF
Rels and FF are interchangeable atm.
If Igrok isn't modkilled then add him to that list if he magically comes back to hit the minimum post requirements.
In terms of everyone else.
BC - Town
Pandain - lean town
WBG -lean town
HF - lean town
VE - Lean town
Koshi - Neutral
Rayn - Neutral
Grack, MZ and Vivax are all on my watch list atm as they arent performing as they should as town.
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I think Wherebugsgo is solid town, not even learn town. He's most active person, is clearly actively reading and re-reading and using that to inform his view in a logical way (even if i disagree sometimes)
Super strong town lean on Koshi as well for his carefree posting. They just seem townie.
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EPT
