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On June 26 2018 23:48 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2018 12:41 Mocsta wrote:On June 26 2018 12:30 Regfan wrote: @Mocsta - Not a non-native at all, but think reading up/catching up on whatever has been missed (regardless of the length of it) is "catching up on the game". You're very much missing my concern with your play here, it's not that I take issue with your questioning of CopCake there, mentioned it twice now, when I look at the individual posts they seem mostly reasonable, it's just the progression/body of work so to speak where I'm stumped with you and left going "Huuhh" with.
I can't follow what your reads are on the players here or why you're thinking what you are. I'm fully aware that others think about the game quite differently than I do, I'm also very aware that the meta on TL is hugely different to most of the places I've played at. That doesn't change the fact that when attempting to get a read on someone (No matter who/where it is) I need to be able to see "Oh they're doing A for B" or "They think C due to D/E", I don't need to agree with the reasoning of why you've got somewhere or have a particular read for it to be a real/genuine read from them, I do need to see that it exists. I don't even have a strong scum read on you here at all, I'm very much in a headspace where I'm just gathering data to try and work out/solve the game right now and having others comment on your playstyle (Plus I'm planning on reading through 1-2 of your town/scum games when I get a chance to be able to work it out myself) will help me massively when it comes to you.
- R i find it startling that given all that has occured jn the thread. That i am of your primary concern. I suspect if you town we are at an impasse. Im not going to share all my thoights on this game. Only those i think thatvare relevant or those i am asked about and care to share. If you doubt my intention i would expect you to probe me on why i acted a certain way. Instead you arensoliciting other opinion. Frankly this comes across to me as suspect. Puppeteer behind the curtain type stuff. I dont think my past games will help much either. I entered this game with diffeerent jntebtions to others and so far think i am living up to them. If you must know and have not realiaed. I was suspicious of cupcake because he toom such an early strong stance. This is reflected in my posts.... Mocsta, what was the most interesting thing to you in the thread when you wrote this? IIRC, HF/tt & Regfan/Calix & Cupcake/Rayn
Those positions were as laid out as they could be at that point in time, so meh.
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On June 27 2018 00:35 Tictock wrote: Not a fan of Calix's case on Cake. Partially kus I think Cake is almost lock town for me.
Her points feel more nitpickey than insightful though, like she isn't sure how or what to address in the game. Her first point is weak as both Town and Mafia can ask weak questions, and I disagree that Cake hasn't done anything to advance the game. She has clearly given her own opinions and seems to be openly weighing in on things.
I think I need Calix to give better examples of what she means by Cake making excuses for others kus I don't know what she is referring too.
The pointing out inactives stuff is weak as well. I've seen both mafia and town do this so it is not very AI. The point would be stronger if that was ALL cake had posted, but it is far from the only thought Cake has presented so I find this pretty underwhelming.
Kinda disappointed, I think Calix likely rolled mafia this game and is struggling with her time constraints. Was hoping to play with her as town. What I haven't seen anyone comment is that CopCake only mentioned inactives because Regfan asked for town/scum read with gun2head.
The flow from that to, "hmmm, i have spoken about majority, whom is left" is quite transparent.
That Calix misconstrues this indicates a superficial filter dive.
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On June 27 2018 00:40 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2018 00:35 Tictock wrote: The pointing out inactives stuff is weak as well. I've seen both mafia and town do this so it is not very AI. The point would be stronger if that was ALL cake had posted, but it is far from the only thought Cake has presented so I find this pretty underwhelming. I didn't touch this before for someone else to debunk that shit aswell. well this isn't exactly it but like.. If you read Cake's posts she has either a townread or "non-scumread" on every player who has posted so far other than Calix, Holyflare and Regfan. Regfan is already at least "moderately pressured" by Mocsta at the time. Calix is the same, by me and Mocsta. If you don't think anyone else is mafia, who do you want to pressure as town? Lol Beat me 2 it.
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sigh. im hesistant to spam p22 even further, so last one for a bit.
p20 I feel will have relevance to solving this game, following a few flips. Definitely some things starting to come out of the woodwork.
This is where i am at:
ShoCkeyy + Show Spoiler +Nothing. Not worth a lynch D1 with existing activity Holyflare + Show Spoiler + Classic town!HF for 2018 at least in my mind. I have no issues with his logic positions, and they are articulated well, without trying to jam it down your throat. I think the rayn/HF comments on me is overblown. HF position is similar to what i was with Regfan. i.e. acknowledge its not worth pursuing but still pay attention to out of caution Regfan + Show Spoiler + raynpelikoneet + Show Spoiler +His actions are lined up well with what i perceive his headspace to me Calix + Show Spoiler +Aside from the posts I made on p22 e.g. #426 I find Calix to echo thread sentiment very closely. This could be a coincidence, but I find a few things she is doing mimicking my posts - but with an aura of, im doing something someone townie did, so i should be townie too. Its coming across to me as fake. even the back-down into "maybe I OMGUS" seems a bit theatrical for my liking. Koshi + Show Spoiler +More like a 90% null, 10% scum lean, so very weak. I dont have a problem Koshi isnt active, this is somewhat consistent for him in recent games. Its more that the posts lack any type of passion of fun-factor. The "I dont give a fuck" feel is not present, even though the words are meant to communicate that. I wouldnt lynch over Calix Conversion + Show Spoiler +This is more the "I dont give a fuck" feel that Koshi is meant to have. I also like his transition circa p20 to discussing the game more seriously. Is turning stones others have mentioned in the thread and I like it. TheSlenderMan + Show Spoiler + Ticktock + Show Spoiler + I dont have issue with TT content, I more cannot get over how different his play this game is compared to my preconceived notion. How do i say.. i was expecting him to be more like a town Vivax? Will re-evaluate on d2 if i get to filter dive. Definitely havent seen anything beyond early game that makes me go "must lynch!". CopCake + Show Spoiler + Really consistent posting when querying the game, or responding to pressure and the timing of hipster town reads does not benefit mafia. Like, perhaps issuing one read is OK to feign contribution, but not to dismiss almost everyone that had posted. boxerfred + Show Spoiler + Vivax + Show Spoiler +Like Koshi, more a 90% null, 20% scum lean. Im pretty conflicted with Vivax and dont know how to articulate it. I think he is the type of personality that agitates me, so I am more inclined to negatively perceive him. Having said that, unless the agenda is to shit the thread, I dont see how what Vivax is doing benefits mafia; and I also dont know if this is within Vivax mafia range. Would evaluate on D2, and again, wouldnt lynch over Calix. For whatever reason I would probably also rather take a punt on a lurker afk (e.g. boxerfred/slender) then lynch Vivax on D1. I dont know how to explain why this is so. Perhaps because I find him to be a bit like HF in that once the dog has the bone, it will rarely be let go. So Vivax shoudl self-prove over time
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On June 27 2018 12:50 Tictock wrote: I am removing Mocsta from my town pool, until further notice.
That is all. fair enough. i prob should have written tubesock
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im here.. just nothing worth talking about.
like, standing on a box and yelling calix will probably lead to more people NOT voting that direction cos the good content will get lost in the noise.
the onyl relevant thing to me right now is if tictock (who i incorrectly wrote as tubesock before) (1) believes i am null, and if so (2) what in particular has steered him towards that conclusion as I presume it is to do with my calix analysis.
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On June 27 2018 13:21 CopCake wrote: Well, Calix is your lock mafia and your case was poor in that mini case you did. Really? How so?
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On June 27 2018 13:36 CopCake wrote: Well the fact calix called me out... out of nowhere doesnt seem exactly like he is copying you.
I just read your other case post #426 but I dont think just one post is strong enough to lock down someone as mafia lr toen. It is Calix progression and how he contradics what makes me think he is mafia.
Firstly, I believe I may have called you out first, possibly even on the same page as Calix "case".
Secondly, I am not stating Calix is blatantly copying me or thread sentiment; however, if she did, thats more likely to be a town tell than mafia. I am saying she is echoing thread sentiment with her own twist - which is so often a mafia thing to do, simply because it works.
Lastly, Calix argued the CopCake read quite vigorously, and talks about OMGUS, which leads to "tunneled" I find that one of the key differences between how mafia and town walk away from tunneled reads is that: mafia are focused on "perception/looking good" so will ensure things are said that look good superficially. Everything is clean and quoteable for future reference. Town on the otherhand are a mess. You have someone that has focused so much energy on one outcome that the rest of the game is almost a non-entity and thus are stuck, and have none of the quotable references to walk out looking good.
For me, Calix says she is stuck, but is ensuring that this position is transparent in the thread. That to me is pretty much the most mafia-sided mindset I have seen from anyone all game, which is a large chunk of why my vote is cast that way.
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On June 27 2018 13:50 Tictock wrote:Yea it was these couple of posts. Show nested quote +On June 27 2018 07:46 Mocsta wrote:Im re-reading the game before continuing where I finished last night (circa p13). Apologies if this is cock-blocking active discussion. On June 26 2018 08:15 Calix wrote: It was clearly written before he received his role because if he was an investigative role, he (or she, since this is Gemma?) would know that Cops on this site don't get N0 checks.
Thus it's not AI.
I would like to know more about the two players in the hydra though. How many games have they played, where are they from, stuff like that.[/] On June 26 2018 09:50 Regfan wrote: I've played a little over 20 games, although most of them I wouldn't qualify as real games. I'm from Westeros, where we play alted games with usually pretty short deadlines. Regfan has been mentoring me for a while now, and my love for process comes from him. I'm good at some of the things he's terrible at, like having a personality, and he's good at some of the things I'm terrible at (nothing comes to mind right now), so we complement each other pretty well I think.
-GI'm going to go out on a limb that Regfan is town because of this interaction (and how important it is to Gemma later in D1 when talking to Rayn). Gemma got so "horny" to share some info about herself - which in her mind is pivotal to town success; that she later interprets the post from Calix to be (positively) conclusive; when merely it is asking for token info that could be discerned as the game progresses. I can't picture a world where mafia would BOTH lap up the opportunity to talk about themselves AND strongly advocate the post as a basis for town+scum reads. Definitely one or the other, but not both. This town read makes absolutely no sense to me. I get that I am probably a little tunneled on Reg myself, possibly even just due to the Hydra thing, but this feels super forced. & Post # 426, his Calix case, which kept breaking my post for some reason. It feels off how Mocsta is presenting these things from basically the begging of the game like he just discovered them. I could maybe see the first one but the second post about Calix's 3rd post feels more like something he dug up and realized he could write a whole bunch about it. The post about Calix especially bugs me kus I brought this up withing the first few hours of the game, and eventually dismissed it as being rather flimsy. Mocsta was definitely around then, but had no reaction so it is so weird he is taking such emphasis with it now. Idk, those posts gave me weird vibes when I read them and so I took a quick glance through Mocsta's filter. Everything just felt so flippant in his posts up until the last few hours, then suddenly a bunch of effort posts, a fairly shitty list post, and this "case" on Calix. By flippant here I mean there is no clear reads or direction in his posting. Feels like he suddenly decided to put out the effort. There is a bit more, but I don't feel like writing a full essay here. And I already put it so eloquently in my last post. ... Oh actually I did almost forget one thing. Show nested quote +[B]On June 27 2018 00:14 Mocsta wrote: On June 27 2018 00:12 Tictock wrote:On June 26 2018 14:59 Mocsta wrote:
- Tictock: because whilst I liked the later posts, it is still not reminding me of the last game I played with him where I vividly remember him as this guy that is all about "accuracy" and his "own logical model". In fairness, the environment of the game state is somewhat different, so im still battling whether this is alignment indicative or not.
Not sure this is AI, but this is your recollection of me based on that bastard game where You, me, and DF got our own QT and I convinced myself you were mafia based off the ring nonsense the hosts threw at us? I'm just not sure I've ever seen anyone describe my playstyle like this before. ... Heh, it just now strikes me that we are both referring to this as "not sure if AI", lol. yes. That one game. I was confirmed town and you refused to change ya view kn the world It stuck with me lol I will filter dive you on d2 as you arent in my d1 pool Calix was 100% right about this, my memory was faulty and I was getting Mocsta mixed up with Grack in This game. It's odd that Mocsta would have had no clue what I was talking about but still replied "yea that one." I would be willing to write this point off as whatever since it doesn't scream mafia, but you should remember Mocsta keeps using his meta as a basis to read me. So the fact he is so blase about which game we last played in is super off. + Show Spoiler +Side note: In the last game he was actually referring too, now that I remember, there was like 5 blues. I was rolecop and he was Vig. So the fact that I was doubtful of the claim does not represent the true extent of my ability to crazy tunnel. Hi TT,
Yes, you are a 'little tunneled' on Reg.
The hydra are clearly 2 different heads, but both have the same intent to be open in dialogue. I truly don't think that mafia get excited to talk about themselves such that it influences their reads of other players. Unless you are talking a Regfan/Calix scum pairing, even then, I still think its odd. You don't have to agree, but it is certainly not a forced position.
#426 was written as i think the intent of my ping and Rayns clarity went over most peoples heads. It was an attempt to convey introverted intuition, and seems to have failed. I thought your quote was relevant on a re-read which is why i included it. To be honest, I can only see someone taking issue with this if they are concerned Calix is a mislynch and it will make them look bad. I would say only mafia could have that level of certainty on D1 so I really dont know where that puts us?
The stuff about the game, i dont see the issue. i said yes because I didnt think it mattered. You had no recollection of me, but I had a strong recollection of you. You may have been a rolecop, but I was actually confirmed. And every second post I made you called me town, and every other postyou called me scum. Its why I had you pegged as this guy that was accuracy. Once outside that permitted boundary, YOU ARE SCUM. Ironically, this is what you appear to be doing now, so, keep it up! In my own & unique way, you are leaning more town.
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On June 27 2018 14:10 Tictock wrote: Oh before I shower I will say @ Mocsta
Sorry I don't really do the whole interacting to sus people out. If I had any specific questions to you I'd ask, but I'm actually just mulling over my thoughts as I have them. I wasn't even going to elaborate on why I wasn't sure about you anymore till I had slept on it, but things just started flowing so I posted it. Thats ok, i appreciate that you replied What you presented was reasonable to me on the assumption you are tunneled. Put another way, beter than calix stuff by a long way.
Sleep on it and see where we get to tomorrow.
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On June 27 2018 14:15 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2018 14:10 CopCake wrote: Then your appeal to emotion is useless and i dont see why you bother to ask me that when i have what I think is a good case. Wait that would have made a difference to you? My point was that I'd put Calix, Rayn, and HF as a similar calibure of player, actually I have that sense about Regfan as well. I don't think one day of discussion is sufficient to determine their alignment. Well thats truly insulting now for me isnt it....
fuck off to bed now please.
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On June 27 2018 14:17 Tictock wrote: arg, and yes I realize my vote is still on Reg
I never said I wasn't a hypocrite myself, but in my defense I am trying to figure out who is actually a good lynch today right now. Aside from the valid slenderman comment.
I would appreciate your take on #454
Prob tomorrow as you seem somewhat biased right now against anything I write.
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On June 27 2018 14:25 CopCake wrote: I am going to play with the idea that Gemma didnt know reg was mafia and just posted that beautiful meme and Mafiacalix tried to fix it.
I mean even Gemma herself called out regfan in a post. I will pay that as something I could entertainment. Not for a D1 lynch though.
That type of shit is really pushing the limits of acceptable fair play though. I would really hope that isnt the case.
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@Regfan,
Gemma aside, where are you at with Calix, Vivax and the content from p20 to 24.
Are you advocating to lurker/afk lynch for D1? Which inadvertently suggests, all actives are town-ish?
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On June 27 2018 14:38 Regfan wrote: Planning on doing some ISO's and deeper read thoughts on the more active players when I'm not at work to decide where I want to go today, also think a conversation with Gemma there is massively needed.
Current headspace is that I'm very confident (Bet the game level) that there's never more than 1 scum inside of Rayn/Calix/Cake, have Rayn/Calix as non-aligned, Rayn/Cake as non-aligned and Calix/Cake as non-aligned meaning it's going to take a looooot to convince me to lynch inside that grouping since the odds of hitting mafia outside of that is significantly higher.
- R That is patently false.
13 players, 3 mafia 9 town. For sake "wank factor" you can treat the originator is lock town. So 3 mafia, 8 town is the game we play.
Rayn/Calix/Cake = 1/3 = 33% success rate Remaining pool is 2/8 = 25% success rate
If you want to assume no scum in Rayn/Calix/Cake Remaining pool is 3/8 = 37% success rate. Sure, officially its better than 1/3, but practically, there is no difference.
Regardless of wanting to consult with Gemma or not, I cannot help but be disappointed that you D1 vote rests on the laurels of percentage instead of deduction. This is quite the anti-climax.
Lets see what returns when you have that pow-wow.
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On June 27 2018 14:40 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2018 14:11 Mocsta wrote: To be honest, I can only see someone taking issue with this if they are concerned Calix is a mislynch and it will make them look bad. I would say only mafia could have that level of certainty on D1 so I really dont know where that puts us?
I am concerned Calix is a mislynch, but only factor in how that would be bad for town. How would it make me look bad? More to the point here, why would I as mafia stick my neck out to 180 when I've clearly done some legwork to have a perfectly valid reason to push Calix here? These are the little snips that will get me to scumread you, it's hedging at it's finest. You are overall suggesting you think I am town but throw this bit in like you need to keep a line of reasoning that I am mafia. This is clear to me, so thanks.
Its not my intention at all, but I absolutely get where you are coming from. Very much appreciated actually.
Enjoy the sleep.
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On June 27 2018 15:01 Regfan wrote: You're looking at it the wrong way around Moscta, I think there's a very realistic chance that the three of them are all town here and if there's only one scum inside them then firing inside that pool I'm still just shooting at a 1/3 chance of hitting scum at best.
If you think of at it from an angle of "Put them three to the side, remove people I'm confident are town" (Ideally it'll be 2-3 people at minimum) I'm left with a good chance of being in a position where I'm hitting in say 2/6 or 3/6 of the remainder which is fairly decent for D1. I consider the game as a puzzle so to speak, I build and move pieces until I've worked out and gamesolved and I've got a fairly high success rate doing it.
If I go through the deep read throughs and come out thinking one of them is suuuper likely scum, obviously this changes and turns into a "They flip scum, clear 2 people from it" but as it currently sits I don't feel that way about any of them at all. Aside from my wrong % (lol) this is still a fancy way to campaigning towards a lurker lynch - which I dont support.
Im not going to argue this further. Its a philosophical opinion that people are entitled to have.
Im heading off, catcha.
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In retrospect If i remove calix I end up where you are too
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##Unvote
I dunno if Calix is town, but I trust Regfan enough to relinquish my read.
I would vote between Shockeyy and Koshi equally if Calix wont be wagon'd.
Shockeyy cos that post shitting on town for being down each others throats is such a mafia style intro post. Koshi for reasons I mentioned prior.
Will decide when i wake up. ciao.
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