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On June 27 2018 14:11 Mocsta wrote:
To be honest, I can only see someone taking issue with this if they are concerned Calix is a mislynch and it will make them look bad. I would say only mafia could have that level of certainty on D1 so I really dont know where that puts us?
I am concerned Calix is a mislynch, but only factor in how that would be bad for town.
How would it make me look bad? More to the point here, why would I as mafia stick my neck out to 180 when I've clearly done some legwork to have a perfectly valid reason to push Calix here?
These are the little snips that will get me to scumread you, it's hedging at it's finest. You are overall suggesting you think I am town but throw this bit in like you need to keep a line of reasoning that I am mafia.
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On June 27 2018 14:16 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2018 14:15 Tictock wrote:On June 27 2018 14:10 CopCake wrote:
Then your appeal to emotion is useless and i dont see why you bother to ask me that when i have what I think is a good case. Wait that would have made a difference to you? My point was that I'd put Calix, Rayn, and HF as a similar calibure of player, actually I have that sense about Regfan as well. I don't think one day of discussion is sufficient to determine their alignment. Well thats truly insulting now for me isnt it.... fuck off to bed now please.
Lol, if it makes you feel better I tend to have more fun playing with you than people like Rayn, and HF.
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On June 27 2018 14:38 Regfan wrote:
Planning on doing some ISO's and deeper read thoughts on the more active players when I'm not at work to decide where I want to go today, also think a conversation with Gemma there is massively needed.
Current headspace is that I'm very confident (Bet the game level) that there's never more than 1 scum inside of Rayn/Calix/Cake, have Rayn/Calix as non-aligned, Rayn/Cake as non-aligned and Calix/Cake as non-aligned meaning it's going to take a looooot to convince me to lynch inside that grouping since the odds of hitting mafia outside of that is significantly higher.
- R That is patently false.
13 players,
3 mafia
9 town.
For sake "wank factor" you can treat the originator is lock town. So 3 mafia, 8 town is the game we play.
Rayn/Calix/Cake = 1/3 = 33% success rate
Remaining pool is 2/8 = 25% success rate
If you want to assume no scum in Rayn/Calix/Cake
Remaining pool is 3/8 = 37% success rate.
Sure, officially its better than 1/3, but practically, there is no difference.
Regardless of wanting to consult with Gemma or not, I cannot help but be disappointed that you D1 vote rests on the laurels of percentage instead of deduction. This is quite the anti-climax.
Lets see what returns when you have that pow-wow.
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You're looking at it the wrong way around Moscta, I think there's a very realistic chance that the three of them are all town here and if there's only one scum inside them then firing inside that pool I'm still just shooting at a 1/3 chance of hitting scum at best.
If you think of at it from an angle of "Put them three to the side, remove people I'm confident are town" (Ideally it'll be 2-3 people at minimum) I'm left with a good chance of being in a position where I'm hitting in say 2/6 or 3/6 of the remainder which is fairly decent for D1. I consider the game as a puzzle so to speak, I build and move pieces until I've worked out and gamesolved and I've got a fairly high success rate doing it.
If I go through the deep read throughs and come out thinking one of them is suuuper likely scum, obviously this changes and turns into a "They flip scum, clear 2 people from it" but as it currently sits I don't feel that way about any of them at all.
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On June 27 2018 14:40 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2018 14:11 Mocsta wrote:
To be honest, I can only see someone taking issue with this if they are concerned Calix is a mislynch and it will make them look bad. I would say only mafia could have that level of certainty on D1 so I really dont know where that puts us?
I am concerned Calix is a mislynch, but only factor in how that would be bad for town. How would it make me look bad? More to the point here, why would I as mafia stick my neck out to 180 when I've clearly done some legwork to have a perfectly valid reason to push Calix here? These are the little snips that will get me to scumread you, it's hedging at it's finest. You are overall suggesting you think I am town but throw this bit in like you need to keep a line of reasoning that I am mafia. This is clear to me, so thanks.
Its not my intention at all, but I absolutely get where you are coming from. Very much appreciated actually.
Enjoy the sleep.
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On June 27 2018 15:01 Regfan wrote:
You're looking at it the wrong way around Moscta, I think there's a very realistic chance that the three of them are all town here and if there's only one scum inside them then firing inside that pool I'm still just shooting at a 1/3 chance of hitting scum at best.
If you think of at it from an angle of "Put them three to the side, remove people I'm confident are town" (Ideally it'll be 2-3 people at minimum) I'm left with a good chance of being in a position where I'm hitting in say 2/6 or 3/6 of the remainder which is fairly decent for D1. I consider the game as a puzzle so to speak, I build and move pieces until I've worked out and gamesolved and I've got a fairly high success rate doing it.
If I go through the deep read throughs and come out thinking one of them is suuuper likely scum, obviously this changes and turns into a "They flip scum, clear 2 people from it" but as it currently sits I don't feel that way about any of them at all. Aside from my wrong % (lol) this is still a fancy way to campaigning towards a lurker lynch - which I dont support.
Im not going to argue this further. Its a philosophical opinion that people are entitled to have.
Im heading off, catcha.
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I withdraw all my scumreads to go into d1 and a half with another perspective.
I think I'm just going to lynch Koshi for pretending to catch up.
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On June 27 2018 15:12 Mocsta wrote:Aside from my wrong % (lol) this is still a fancy way to campaigning towards a lurker lynch - which I dont support.
Im not going to argue this further. Its a philosophical opinion that people are entitled to have.
Isn't really that at all.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Think you're just linking the fact that the players I've spoken about in my catch up post then are the lower-quantity posters and the fact that I'm not interested in lynching those three players (That happen to be active ones) as wanting to lynch in the inactives when it's merely just a case of I'd commented on those as they're the easiest ones to get down while I'm at work and the ones that require the least thinking about. Can understand how you'd have that stance though but isn't really what's happening. Anyway yeah, you're right, not worth discussing much more until I'm home and ready.
- R
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In retrospect
If i remove calix
I end up where you are too
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-> Town read on Mocsta has continued to strengthen, still don't think the turnaround and manner it occurred on us is something that scum can pull off even close to that naturally; can really follow along how he was thinking during it, him talking himself into the read, throwing out things that made him suspect us in the heat of the moment, again another thing afterwards. Then him actually pulling back, having unvoted in the unvote thread first before posting anything in the main thread, having ISO'ed us and came out realising he'd reacted in an OMGUS'ish type way. His reads and analysis on everyone else at the same and the continued game solving as the day has progressed is just always town here. Like just about all of his interactions with everyone this game, find his interactions with TT and ourselves particularly unfakeable. Can go into this and pull up quotes etc if people need but yeah, not wasting much more time explaining this read otherwise.
-> Still like Ticktocks early posting re; Rayn on a reread though the unlynchable comment isn't as strong a town tell as I had it earlier. Little conflicted as to what to make of his post about Cake/Calix in #315, the last sentence about Calix that I need to mull on a bit, it shows a huge amount of confidence to make a comment like that which I don't think matches the read he has or how quickly it was sort of reduced afterwards but it's also one that I don't very often see from scum and is a more natural thought to come from town. I like most of the process in #407 but the timing of the downplaying of the Calix read feels a bit like pandering there in a way that has a fair bit of scum motivation, not implausible to come from town that were able to pull back and admit they've mostly tunneled themselves into something though. Disagree with most of his #453 but can kind of understand how he might have those thoughts and especially like #455 process wise. Was hoping to solidify this town read a little more than I have, will have another go over him later but yeah, still think he's town but isn't a read I'm suuuuper confident on and would like to see where Gemma lands on him after we talk later.
- R
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There's a reasonable chance HF and rayn are mafia this game cause reasons. You should sheep this ironclad case.
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On June 27 2018 14:39 ShoCkeyy wrote:Meh, the only person I'm not feeling is tictock, they have "six" scum reads, me being included which I haven't done much like you said, and seem very indecisive when trying to pin some one as mafia, then the whole "I'm unlynachable" doesn't sit well. It's still early in D1 to tell, we have till 6pm EDT tomorrow before I actually make any decent reads unlike how everyone is at each others throats D1 calling each other scum instead of working together to find scum lol... but yea, that bigger catchup post will happen.
I'll happily take some thoughts of yours thrown out now over a bigger post later at this point. Actually forming a read on your slot would be hella useful and I don't think I've got enough to do that with right now. Don't need you to 'be at someones throat' or need huge explanations for reads but just picking the players you're most confident on and writing a sentence or two about them would do me since right now I only see your stance on TT and while I can follow some of the logic behind it, it isn't a read I'm in agreeing with conclusion wise.
(Also to state that people aren't working together to find scum while prolonging your content until later in the day is eh, need to remember timezone wise there's a few of us that won't be around for the last like 10 hours of the day phase.)
- R
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@Rayn, if you're around in the next 5 or so hours and have a little bit of spare time would appreciate you actually popping in here so we can talk about a few reads. Not hugely happy about your grabbing my ball and going home attitude recently and if you're town here inviting me to come over here, knowing I've taken a break from mafia, am super busy and dislike deadlines this short and being that like feels like a slap in the face.
- R
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Really difficult to actually get a read on Conversion here since his HF push/scum-read looks to be entirely based on some OGI-esque type grudge or a joke-push that he's just maintained for the sheer majority of the day phase. It has scum motivation in that they can hide behind a push that can easily be chalked up as less alignment indicative but ultimately neither of those things feel out of the question for a TL player to do as town. There's other reads/thoughts inside his ISO, some I can sort of follow, others I can't, really though, not a lot to actually get a solidish read on anywhere there.
@Conversion - 1) Can you please just run through where your concern with HF stems from; what's he done here or previously that makes you think he's a worthy policy lynch type player? Can you also try and pull away from your issues with him as a person/player and run through what you think of his alignment in this game 2) How'd your dive into TT go, wouldn't mind you running through your stance on Vivax a little more for me, in #373, you mention you don't really think either him or Calix is mafia, I can follow your reasoning for not thinking they're a scum team there but I don't really see much more to it and removing him and throwing Shockwave/Koshi as your lynch pool feels fairly lazy.
- R
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-> Went over HFs ISO a few times in the last hour, actually have a very strong town read on the dude, I disagree/dislike his reasoning for scum reading TT initially (I've made and crossed out posts before as town so I don't think it's ever really a scum tell) but I can see it as something he'd easily believe to be the case in the early game. The read progressing to it being a meta sort of problem with TT is something I can also sort of buy, regardless of the accuracy of it or not I think comments like his #397 are the sort of ones that scum normally refrain from making since it tends to actually cause enemies/lead towards an OMGUS from the person they're accusing. Probably won't explain this well but I don't think HF/TT are scum together here (Isn't entirely impossible like some of the other not W/W pairings I have but I think it's only the case a very very small % of the time) and I think Scum!HF saying this towards Town!TT is something he'd feel very awkward from actually doing, particularly given he's not even really voting or pushing TT.
I disagree with his analysis on Moscsta re; Mosctas "If HF does this he's town" comment but I can very much follow his thought process there and think his own turn around on Moscta in #286 and #324 read very town. I find his reads/thoughts/analysis very easy to follow and understand in posts like #255 and #261 and pretty much all up can see him actually trying to work towards gamesolving inside his posts, his pushes, votes and reads all ring very genuine. Would consider him my second strongest town read after Moscta at the moment.
- R
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I'm as good as rayn and HF? Since when? lmao
Anyway I've skimmed the thread. I'm making the executive decision to largely ignore the TWO (!!!) giant cases against me since I'll be working for most of the day and putting me on the defense near EOD is a really bad idea. I'll be around for EOD though so I can do some filter-diving and give reads then ^^
Also Regfan goes up a notch for being sensible, looking into things and discouraging that dumb fight or whatever you'd call it between Tictock and Mocsta (while Mocsta's case was pretty bad, it's not mafia-terrible, I don't think).
Regfan also realises that, in a game where about 1/3 of the players aren't actually playing, lynching someone who is playing on D1 is suboptimal.
Yes, yes, this argument is really self-serving but it's not wrong so you should probably just do it.
In a normal game, this would be the part where I tell you who the best lynch is but I would be lying if I said I had any preference. Sure, I can analyse Koshi/ ShoCkeyy/ Vivax or whine about how terrible it is that two players haven't posted yet. But I don't think it's possible to accurately assess players with such low post counts so I don't see the point of wasting time by pretending to do so. I could lynch literally any of them right now and my thoughts are probably not changing until they actually start doing stuff.
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-> I actually really liked Calix's point 2) on Cake in #172, is very much what we were thinking and talking about amongst each other at the time in that we could see a world where Cake was TMI'ing & pocketing players in the way they were giving town reads, the fact that Calix picked up on the same thing we did there is actually a very good sign regardless of whether Cakes scum or not. I find the interaction that follows with Cake to be fairly easy to follow and make plenty of sense. Dudes posts throughout his entire ISO actually scream town, a lot and his reaction in posts like #290, #298 and #307 all ring genuine; his analysis of the section and pull back on Cake there. Gemma linked me to #381 and I'm in agreement that I don't think that's how scum react towards being pushed there at all. Dude is very very clearly town, will try and spend some time running through the cases against him because he shouldn't ever be the lynch here, like ever.
- R
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On June 27 2018 20:17 Regfan wrote:Gemma linked me to #381 and I'm in agreement that I don't think that's how scum react towards being pushed there at all. Dude is very very clearly town, will try and spend some time running through the cases against him because he shouldn't ever be the lynch here, like ever. - R
Wasn't that post #203 that Gemma made this comment about? O.o
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##Unvote
I dunno if Calix is town, but I trust Regfan enough to relinquish my read.
I would vote between Shockeyy and Koshi equally if Calix wont be wagon'd.
Shockeyy cos that post shitting on town for being down each others throats is such a mafia style intro post.
Koshi for reasons I mentioned prior.
Will decide when i wake up. ciao.
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I made a beautiful case against Calix and in went directly to the bathroom it seems.
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EPT
