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[N] TL Mafia LXXV - Page 316

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
June 29 2017 17:16 GMT
#6301
Rels can you answer me on your read on Skynx when you get a chance?
table for two on a tv tray
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25552 Posts
June 29 2017 17:20 GMT
#6302
On June 30 2017 01:02 Fecalfeast wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2017 00:45 beentheredonethat wrote:
Also, disformation's setup speculation leaves out the fact that there have been double KP for scum involved. So it actually makes a lot of sense that scum has quite a lot of investigatives.

Plus, there's this little host slip:

22)Eversince Killed Night 5 as Town Tracker

Makes it super possible that there is also a scum tracker instead of goon. Why write "town" tracker instead?

This is dumb and I hate it

When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
June 29 2017 17:28 GMT
#6303
On June 30 2017 00:42 VayneAuthority wrote:
lol

On June 30 2017 01:02 Fecalfeast wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2017 00:45 beentheredonethat wrote:
Also, disformation's setup speculation leaves out the fact that there have been double KP for scum involved. So it actually makes a lot of sense that scum has quite a lot of investigatives.

Plus, there's this little host slip:

22)Eversince Killed Night 5 as Town Tracker

Makes it super possible that there is also a scum tracker instead of goon. Why write "town" tracker instead?

This is dumb and I hate it

On June 30 2017 02:20 Blazinghand wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2017 01:02 Fecalfeast wrote:
On June 30 2017 00:45 beentheredonethat wrote:
Also, disformation's setup speculation leaves out the fact that there have been double KP for scum involved. So it actually makes a lot of sense that scum has quite a lot of investigatives.

Plus, there's this little host slip:

22)Eversince Killed Night 5 as Town Tracker

Makes it super possible that there is also a scum tracker instead of goon. Why write "town" tracker instead?

This is dumb and I hate it


[image loading]
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
June 29 2017 17:33 GMT
#6304
disformation, i have like 45 mins. Wanna talk about something?
table for two on a tv tray
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
June 29 2017 17:39 GMT
#6305
i think i actually had a question for you. gimme a second to find the post.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
June 29 2017 17:40 GMT
#6306
ah found it.
before the btdt stuff happened you posted:
On June 29 2017 01:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2017 18:44 Rels wrote:
I'll make posts explaining my thoughts when I have the time IE tonight. The TLDR on Skynx is his continuous investigative tone + how he thinks about the game, trying to find teams that makes sense + attacking disfo when it makes no sense to do that.
I have opinion on BTDT. My opinion is that I'm conflicted. More on that tonight

Attacking disfo when?

Show nested quote +
On June 28 2017 20:29 disformation wrote:
es, va, rayn what do you guys think abput btdt's eod yesterday?

What about it?

I have two reads from yesterday, i am gonna go more into that a bit later.

what were/are you two reads from that eod?
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
June 29 2017 17:42 GMT
#6307
otherwise:
what do you think of rels?
i am somewhat tempted to call him town atm.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
June 29 2017 17:43 GMT
#6308
but i agree that rels should go back and talk more about:
On June 28 2017 18:20 Rels wrote:
Skynx is not scum.
disfo is not scum.
rayn is not scum.
FF is probably not scum.

BH is scum.

This is where I'm restarting from.

On June 28 2017 18:44 Rels wrote:
I'll make posts explaining my thoughts when I have the time IE tonight. The TLDR on Skynx is his continuous investigative tone + how he thinks about the game, trying to find teams that makes sense + attacking disfo when it makes no sense to do that.
I have opinion on BTDT. My opinion is that I'm conflicted. More on that tonight

raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
June 29 2017 18:01 GMT
#6309
On June 30 2017 02:40 disformation wrote:
ah found it.
before the btdt stuff happened you posted:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2017 01:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On June 28 2017 18:44 Rels wrote:
I'll make posts explaining my thoughts when I have the time IE tonight. The TLDR on Skynx is his continuous investigative tone + how he thinks about the game, trying to find teams that makes sense + attacking disfo when it makes no sense to do that.
I have opinion on BTDT. My opinion is that I'm conflicted. More on that tonight

Attacking disfo when?

On June 28 2017 20:29 disformation wrote:
es, va, rayn what do you guys think abput btdt's eod yesterday?

What about it?

I have two reads from yesterday, i am gonna go more into that a bit later.

what were/are you two reads from that eod?

I thought Blazinghand is mafia and Rels is mafia. At the time i didn't really see any reason for btdt to do what he did as mafia so i couldn't understand why Rels called his read on btdt "conflicted". He definitely had read the EoD because he was around and even posted analysis on it.

Then i realized i am probably wrong on something since i don't really think those three can be mafia together. I am currently trying to figure out where i am wrong. So i would like Rels to answer me what are those posts he talks about regarding Skynx and why does his read change. I'd rather not talk about Rels yet until he has answered me.

Now let's assume i am right and those three are not the remaining mafia:
That means there has to be at least 1 mafia in Skynx/FF/Ruxxar. All of those three are not being talked about at all. There are no really good reasons to townread FF and honestly i have forgotten about him after i thought sl had claimed to have the same check on him and Chezitwo. I still think Ruxxar is town but i havent really paid attention to his play after i concluded he is town early on (and also my top scumread Rels was calling him mafia so that would unlikely be a bus). Have you read Ruxxar lately? I don't even rememeber why Rels called him mafia but i thought the reasons were bad -- and he also had "yet to read Ruxxar's filter".... Do you think Skynx can be scum with btdt? Can this a yolo bus or just plain out "i try to lynch this townie"? I mean btdt is kinda right in that Skynx' EoD in fact DOES look bad? But i am conflicted on the fact why he would basically sacrifice himself to get Skynx town credit. Skynx doesn't really make sense to me as either alignment roff. I could use some help there.

I am gonna talk more about Blazinghand when i get off work in the morning, i need to check if what he says makes sense in contrast to his posting and reads before the lynch throughout the day. Rels is right in that what Blazinghand did is not really alignment indicative in itself since he DOES do that as both alignments. He is also right in that in case he (Rels) is town then Blazinghand's actions make more sense to do as mafia, but the problem is he would also say that as mafia, obviously.
table for two on a tv tray
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
June 29 2017 18:02 GMT
#6310
On June 29 2017 01:26 raynpelikoneet wrote:
okay disformation shut up on this.

Rels can you give me examples of:
Show nested quote +
Skynx is his continuous investigative tone + how he thinks about the game, trying to find teams that makes sense + attacking disfo when it makes no sense to do that.

please

For the tone, it's basically the whole shitfight with BTDT, where he is seems much more natural than BTDT.
Thinking about what team makes sense + attacking disfo, it's these posts where he suddenly townreads BTDT when he doesn't need to as scum, then doesn't buddy town leaders:
On June 27 2017 04:08 Skynx wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 22 2017 18:48 beentheredonethat wrote:
On June 22 2017 08:01 Half the Sky wrote:
Final Vote Count - Day 3


Grackaroni (9): ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Chezitwo, beentheredonethat, VayneAuthority, Tumblewood, sicklucker, Blazinghand, raynpelikoneet, disformation, Palmar, Eversince
sicklucker (3): disformation, Palmar, Grackaroni, Rels, Skynx, Chezitwo, Grackaroni
Palmar (2): disformation, Grackaroni, disformation, Fecalfeast
VayneAuthority (1): Grackaroni
disformation (0): disformation
Rels (0): sicklucker, raynpelikoneet, Skynx
Fecalfeast (0): Tumblewood
Skynx (0): Palmar, Skynx
raynpelikoneet (0): Rels
ruXxar (0): Blazinghand
beentheredonethat (0): disformation

Half the Sky is throwing Grackaroni out of her whiskey bar.


Observations:
1 Pretty much uncontested Grack wagon
2 Votes in hammer range on town: Tumblewood, sicklucker, Blazinghand
3 Irrelevant votes: raynpelikoneet, Palmar (starting with Rayn as hammer because Fecalfeast was originally part of the Grack wagon)
4 "Counter wagon" votes: Rels, Skynx, Chezitwo
5 Wasted votes: disformation, (Fecalfeast)

re: 1)

Having an uncontested wagon where no big discussion is revolving around pretty much means it's a town wagon. However, I think there was actually a lot of discussion in the past day, especially started by Rels. I am town reading Rels right now; he came out of the lurker shadows to actually talk. I also like his fighting with rayn and I'm super worried about rayn not being the town super hero that pushes people around. So Rels up, rayn down, although I gotta admit I haven't looked too deeply into the fight these two have.

My association between Skynx and Grack was obviously wrong. Nevertheless I find it super suspicious that Skynx chimed in, threw around some shade, later on pissed off, let the Grack lynch happen without really putting in work to push the sicklucker lynch. I am sure that there is scum on the Grack wagon and I am fairly certain that not all scummers are on that wagon; and Skynx' vote feels off. We have two mislynches as someone pointed out; so a vig shot (if available) gets more and more risky - but Skynx is a decent target. But I'm super super super afraid here.


Scum pool: Skynx, Eversince (voted super late each time)
Town should be: disformation (mehhhhhhhh, and only if he doesn't die this night lol, and town rage), Chezitwo (mainly based on D2), Rels (based on D3)
Meh: Palmar, Tumblewood, Blazinghand, ruxxar, Fecalfeast, VayneAuthority, sicklucker, rayn

I hope I didn't forget anyone.

re: 2)

These three players were basically the ones who sealed the Grack lynch: Tumblewood, sicklucker, Blazinghand. All of them will be moved to the scum pool for that:

Scum pool: Skynx, Eversince, Tumblewood, sicklucker, Blazinghand
Town should be: disformation, Chezitwo, Rels
Meh: Palmar, ruxxar, Fecalfeast, VayneAuthority, rayn

So without further ado, they come into the scum pool.

re: 3)

Same as 2), can just be scum chiming in.

Scum pool: Skynx, Eversince, Tumblewood, sicklucker, Blazinghand, Palmar, rayn
Town should be: disformation, Chezitwo, Rels
Meh: ruxxar, Fecalfeast, VayneAuthority

re: 4)

Rels pushing sicklucker matches what he did all D2. I don't think that this is scum pushing a second town wagon here. So if Rels would be scum, then sicklucker would most likely also be scum and we have a bus attempt to get town cred, which IMHO is a rather bad and useless bus because there's no way Rels gains towncred from this vote if sicklucker flips scum at any point. Skynx' vote on the other hand isn't as solid als Rels' vote. He not voting Grack (although he did say something about voting Grack, or am I wrong there?) is actually scum indicative here as he pretty much wasted his vote, putting it on unflipped instead of townflip. I'm certain Skynx is scum.

Chezitwo voting sicklucker - mehhhhhhhhhhhhh. Given how super eager he was to lynch Xata over Xata's cop claim, I don't know why he voted sicklucker here and kinda wasted his vote. I need to check the context of that vote as well as the reasoning. NAI imho but I'm not too sure. I don't have too many townreads so I'll keep him on the list "just cause" but I am indeed a bit paranoid.

re: 5) The only thing that comes to my mind is that disfo said early D3 that he'd end up voting Grackaroni anyways. Not sure what to make out of that but it striked me as weird.

[bolded]You know what btdt is town, All of the previous day he associated me with Grack, actually believing Grack is mafia and obv ready to lynch me after Grack flips scum. If he's scum he obv knows Grack's gona flip town so this doesn't make sense from his pow. Ofc this is fakeable but just fits more to tunneled bad town imo. Imagine i switched to grack, he's still gona sr me. He's just tunneled for whatever reason and doesn't want to drop his shitty read on me and look bad so comes up with bunch of shade throwing. I'm gona ignore him for now cuz he's irritating.

On June 27 2017 04:41 Skynx wrote:
I disagree strongly with BH on
Show nested quote +
Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.


In fact at least 1 scum would prolly pop in and comment on stuff without committing so clearing people this way is not the best idea, especially the first hours of the day where people are discussing mechanics.

On June 27 2017 06:11 Skynx wrote:
Fefe i dont like since D1 but cant really put together a case either. He is around and when he talks he makes sense but not in a game solving way if that makes sense.

I'm gona have to filter dive people at some point. Hope Palmar is mafia and not 3P otherwise im pretty lost since now i tr btdt.

Ruxxar is still very town so fefe/rels as scum on annul makes sense but now 3 votes piled up on rels all of a sudden when previously most ppl whos not rayn was tring him. I like rayn but not yet convinced on rels.

You being alive this late in the game is also not a good sign disfo.

On June 27 2017 06:18 Skynx wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2017 06:17 disformation wrote:
On June 27 2017 06:11 Skynx wrote:
Fefe i dont like since D1 but cant really put together a case either. He is around and when he talks he makes sense but not in a game solving way if that makes sense.

I'm gona have to filter dive people at some point. Hope Palmar is mafia and not 3P otherwise im pretty lost since now i tr btdt.

Ruxxar is still very town so fefe/rels as scum on annul makes sense but now 3 votes piled up on rels all of a sudden when previously most ppl whos not rayn was tring him. I like rayn but not yet convinced on rels.

You being alive this late in the game is also not a good sign disfo.

why?

You've been the town pillar since D1, i expect them to shoot you at some point but they haven't so.

Fecalfeast
Profile Joined January 2010
Canada11355 Posts
June 29 2017 18:02 GMT
#6311
So wait btdt...

You just said va is scum, disfo is scum, then rels bh rayn skynx ruxx and ff are all lynchable...

Who's left? Really at this point you should have a townread right?
ModeratorINFLATE YOUR POST COUNT; PLAY TL MAFIA
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
June 29 2017 18:02 GMT
#6312
Or if you disagree with Rels/BH/btdt scumteam being nearly impossible please let me know because i would love nothing more than lynching scum Rels.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
June 29 2017 18:07 GMT
#6313
Like regarding Rels i don't see it being impossible he actually realized (after the lynch) that btdt fucked up, hoped people won't see it, called him "conflicted" and is covering the rest of the game by calling Skynx town.
table for two on a tv tray
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
June 29 2017 18:09 GMT
#6314
well my scum team atm is btdt/fefe/bh.

fefe:
had some posts that had a super town tone until eod3. since then he is falling off fairly hard and has problems being in thread / finding stuff to contribute now. i think he also didnt have the hottest reason to be on xata d1. but need to double check.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
June 29 2017 18:09 GMT
#6315
On June 30 2017 02:43 disformation wrote:
but i agree that rels should go back and talk more about:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2017 18:20 Rels wrote:
Skynx is not scum.
disfo is not scum.
rayn is not scum.
FF is probably not scum.

BH is scum.

This is where I'm restarting from.

Show nested quote +
On June 28 2017 18:44 Rels wrote:
I'll make posts explaining my thoughts when I have the time IE tonight. The TLDR on Skynx is his continuous investigative tone + how he thinks about the game, trying to find teams that makes sense + attacking disfo when it makes no sense to do that.
I have opinion on BTDT. My opinion is that I'm conflicted. More on that tonight


yeah I wanted to make a case on BH + reread filters yesterday night. But my GF had other plans p:
Fecalfeast
Profile Joined January 2010
Canada11355 Posts
June 29 2017 18:09 GMT
#6316
Still town
ModeratorINFLATE YOUR POST COUNT; PLAY TL MAFIA
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
June 29 2017 18:11 GMT
#6317
bh not 100% sure yet, but his eod was also super weird.
so i can see scum trying to setup some ml's and fucking up.
makes also sense with a world where rels is town.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
June 29 2017 18:12 GMT
#6318
On June 30 2017 03:09 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 30 2017 02:43 disformation wrote:
but i agree that rels should go back and talk more about:
On June 28 2017 18:20 Rels wrote:
Skynx is not scum.
disfo is not scum.
rayn is not scum.
FF is probably not scum.

BH is scum.

This is where I'm restarting from.

On June 28 2017 18:44 Rels wrote:
I'll make posts explaining my thoughts when I have the time IE tonight. The TLDR on Skynx is his continuous investigative tone + how he thinks about the game, trying to find teams that makes sense + attacking disfo when it makes no sense to do that.
I have opinion on BTDT. My opinion is that I'm conflicted. More on that tonight


yeah I wanted to make a case on BH + reread filters yesterday night. But my GF had other plans p:

The case on balzinghand is irrelevant today.
Tell me what i asked you about your Skynx read.
table for two on a tv tray
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
June 29 2017 18:13 GMT
#6319
skynx for is at least partially a gut/tone read.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
June 29 2017 18:13 GMT
#6320
On June 30 2017 03:11 disformation wrote:
bh not 100% sure yet, but his eod was also super weird.
so i can see scum trying to setup some ml's and fucking up.
makes also sense with a world where rels is town.

That doesn't make any sense since whichever of Palmar / Rels gets lynched the other one is already a mislynch #1. That's why i am conflicted on why what BOTH btdt and BH did on EoD. There has to be a reason, and "setuping a mislynch on Rels/Palmar the next day" is not a conclusion 100%.
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