EPT[M][N] I'm a cop you idiot mafia --- the reboot
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NeverUnlucky
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NeverUnlucky
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On October 04 2016 08:50 batsnacks wrote: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/lMcX6I0.gif) ayy lmao | ||
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NeverUnlucky
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NeverUnlucky
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Get the medic to claim D1. D1 - 3 c. town or 2 ctown, 1 mafia. N1 - 1 c.town dies D2 - 3 ctown, so 2 cmafia / 2 ctown, 1cmafia / 1 ctown, last cmafia GG in 2/3 scenarios. Your method is risking the cop to check the medic and thus losing in efficiency. My method is pro and should be sheeped =)))))) You still around? | ||
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NeverUnlucky
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![[image loading]](http://i.giphy.com/l41lSoOlTm3gyLdXq.gif) | ||
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I'd rather respect lynch you tomorrow. | ||
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Noice. Do you think you're a good cop check for tonight? | ||
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NeverUnlucky
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On December 07 2016 00:28 Tumblewood wrote: no because I think I'm one of the more likely players to die tonight That's the generic answer. Why do you think so? Have you ever been NKed before? Judging from HM3 idk why you would think you're in danger of being killed, lol. If you have some non-math related questions for me, do ask. This game is pretty slow so far. | ||
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NeverUnlucky
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On December 07 2016 00:36 Tumblewood wrote: because the NK is always between me you and Koshi. the other players aren't 'respected'and aren't acting townie either Oh wow, so much honor for me. c: What do you think of other players' entries, specifically cakepie entering with math and hopeless checking in to check out? And Koshi, what happened to the "This town isn't going to be lazy" shtick you had last game? | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.giphy.com/SdZpXohhtnvSU.gif) | ||
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On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote: I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe. I find it opportunistic that you call me and tw out on our lack of assumptions now that the medic was shanked rather than when we were actually discussing it ie I doubt that you would be reproaching us this if it was a VT that flipped today. Also, I dislike that you are entering the day with two targets you'd like to see lynched, especially since pretty much nothing happened N0, so I don't understand how you're ready to see myself or tw lynched already. Also, I don't think your justification to scum-read either of us is worthy of calling us lynch targets. | ||
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On December 07 2016 10:01 NeverUnlucky wrote: I find it opportunistic that you call me and tw out on our lack of assumptions now that the medic was shanked rather than when we were actually discussing it ie I doubt that you would be reproaching us this if it was a VT that flipped today. Also, I dislike that you are entering the day with two targets you'd like to see lynched, especially since pretty much nothing happened N0, so I don't understand how you're ready to see myself or tw lynched already. Also, I don't think your justification to scum-read either of us is worthy of calling us lynch targets. Point 2 is specifically worse because we're in mylo, and you shouldn't enter the day with a pre-conceived idea of who you want to lynch. On December 07 2016 08:59 Tumblewood wrote: current evaluation of ray is neutral and bad, as opposed to everyone else (besides NU I guess) who are neutral and not playing Same feeling for ray, but everyone else (besides you who I've a fetus of a town-lean on) is like ray for me cause 'not playing' IS bad. | ||
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On December 07 2016 10:24 Tumblewood wrote: well, you might if the pre-conceived idea is a series of posts leading you to the conclusion that someone is scum. mylo is like a normal day except usually without a lynch I disagree, but it's pointless to argue about theoretical/non-game related stuff. And ray doesn't have that series of posts. | ||
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On December 07 2016 11:15 Chairman Ray wrote: Same question to you. You said you had a town lean on Tumblewood, even though you mentioned that nothing has happened this game. How come he's leaning town? His posts don't seem like he's trying to appear good rather like he's saying what he thinks. However, I am wary that he may be attempting to buddy because of these two posts: On December 07 2016 00:36 Tumblewood wrote: because the NK is always between me you and Koshi. the other players aren't 'respected'and aren't acting townie either I don't understand why anybody would think that I am a night target for something that is not a blue snipe. idk, I feel like he's either over-evaluating my play or attempting to be on my good side. On December 07 2016 01:37 Tumblewood wrote: actually for Koshi it's the whole 'respect kill' thing. didn't mean to lump him in with us Here he set me and him in a separate category, and it made me uneasy. Meh, he's more town than maf to me. | ||
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Going from "D1 mylo" to "just get to D3 and we're set!" is just... I'm incredulous. I mean, even if you're just blindly enumerating the possibilities, going from N0 to D1, N1, etc... mylo isn't something that just slips your mind -- you KNOW you have TWO days to make ONE correct lynch. That's not a given. I'm not sure even an incredibly negligent townie would so flippantly irresponsible as to practically take it for granted. I like this point on TW. You don’t simply go from acknowledging that d1 is mylo to being really optimistic of making it to day 3. Also, I may be digging too deep here, but TW’s progression on Koshi re: On December 07 2016 00:36 Tumblewood wrote: to because the NK is always between me you and Koshi. the other players aren't 'respected'and aren't acting townie either On December 07 2016 01:37 Tumblewood wrote: after I asked him how he, I and Koshi we were acting townie. Ie he backed down on his statement of Koshi acting town when I questioned him.actually for Koshi it's the whole 'respect kill' thing. didn't mean to lump him in with us I have some other comments/responses I’d like to make but my course is starting atm. I’ll share those when I’m home in about 8 hours. Meanwhile, cakepie, what are your thoughts on Ray’s follow up posts regarding his question to me and TW and his explanation of his first d1 post? | ||
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ebwop | ||
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On December 07 2016 15:48 cakepie wrote: I mindmeld NU on TW seeming to buddy toward end of N0, and I like his questions #71 #73 #74. NU, can you explain your response to TW's plan? + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2016 10:49 NeverUnlucky wrote: No, TW, bad plan. Get the medic to claim D1. D1 - 3 c. town or 2 ctown, 1 mafia. N1 - 1 c.town dies D2 - 3 ctown, so 2 cmafia / 2 ctown, 1cmafia / 1 ctown, last cmafia GG in 2/3 scenarios. Your method is risking the cop to check the medic and thus losing in efficiency. My method is pro and should be sheeped =)))))) You still around? I don't mean explain plan or math or scenarios. I mean explain your reaction to TW's plan, what you thought TW was doing, and your intent -- what were you doing with #46. Were you droll, troll, or actually seriously asking if TW still around so you can keep talking plan math? First off, I think that TW's post was just him voicing what he thought was the optimal scenario for town. As you pointed out, his post was not a troll/joke post, he was legitimately putting forth his plan. I do not see anything malicious in it despite him neglecting the possibility of a blue role dying. My response to his post + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2016 10:49 NeverUnlucky wrote: No, TW, bad plan. Get the medic to claim D1. D1 - 3 c. town or 2 ctown, 1 mafia. N1 - 1 c.town dies D2 - 3 ctown, so 2 cmafia / 2 ctown, 1cmafia / 1 ctown, last cmafia GG in 2/3 scenarios. Your method is risking the cop to check the medic and thus losing in efficiency. My method is pro and should be sheeped =)))))) You still around? On December 06 2016 09:33 NeverUnlucky wrote: I agree that cop should claim at day start, and I also think that the medic should claim. NO VT EVER CC's. Force 1 on 1 with mafia or have up to 3 confirmed town if cop gets a green check who lives through the night. I asked if TW was still around to see if I could have a - non math-related - chat with him, which I ended up having with him the following day. In light of TW's possible buddying later N0, do you agree that his earlier behavior also starts looking more insidious? I don't really get what you mean here. I looked up the definition of insidious, and the two possible meanings of it were: seductive and having a gradual and cumulative effect. When I reread his filter with these two ideas in my mind, I could not understand what made you think that way (other than the posts for which I suspected he was buddying me): -Seductive: None of his N0 posts make me think that he's trying to please or look good -- + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2016 15:52 Tumblewood wrote: ugh I hope this isn't "hi I'm VT bye" because night doesn't mean we can't play. especially when you won't get killed for your reads because N0 On December 06 2016 15:56 Tumblewood wrote: pls it's 25/42 odds (so about 59%?) of prerequisites. anyway even if the odds slightly favor us I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring On December 07 2016 00:09 Tumblewood wrote: it's not but for the rest of the game I would have been biased towards lynching you I quoted some of his posts, but honestly other than the potential buddying posts, all of his filter enters that category. -Having a gradual and cumulative effect : actually, I understand where you're coming from with "Gets all worked up N0 and early D1 about him giving a shit and others apparently not, trying way too hard to oversell his noise as activity before others even begin engaging", and I agree with that statement. #72, 76, 77, 84, 93, 94 are him associating giving a shit and/or being active with town and seeing as he self-categorised himself as giving a shit, it does look like he is trying to sell that he is town. This is especially concerning because he does not try to get others engaged in the thread. He only calls them out for it. | ||
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NeverUnlucky
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On December 08 2016 08:05 ExO_ wrote: Anywho if we can no lynch though that changes everything. There'd be no pressure for scum to fake claim. Should absolutely no lynch, and have cop reveal at the very end of tomorrow night. We can no lynch as long as nobody cumulates 4 votes today. I'm currently weighing in favor of this idea as I don't feel comfortable placing my vote on anybody just yet and I find that our N0 and D1 were not very productive. It also allows the cop to have an extra night to get a check of his choice if he isn't killed. | ||
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On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote: TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming I did touch that topic actually : On December 06 2016 09:33 NeverUnlucky wrote: I agree that cop should claim at day start, and I also think that the medic should claim. NO VT EVER CC's. Force 1 on 1 with mafia or have up to 3 confirmed town if cop gets a green check who lives through the night. So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence. I am confused here. A blue died last night which is not the scenario tw or I described N0. Can you clarify what the coincidence is? | ||
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On December 08 2016 02:50 cakepie wrote: You misread / misunderstood / misremember (misrepresent?) I don't see him changing his mind about Koshi being town. He changed his mind about why Koshi is town for him -- but not in response to your questioning (#74) since his answers were both after. (#77,#78) No, I did not misread/misrep/misinterpreted/misunderstood/misremember (lol). My point was that he backed down on Koshi acting town when I questioned him. He went from Koshi, him, me are respected and acting town to Koshi is town for the respect kill thing once I asked him to explain how all of us were acting town. That’s the suspicious part about his read progression. I did flag his behavior over the course that sequence of posts, though. #101: In any case, those posts scream circlejerk to me. Why is he making such a hardsell of himself as townie based on just noisy activity on N0, without being under fire? Why such rush to form towncircle? In hindsight, did TW prepare to paint himself green with Koshi's blood? Good questions. To follow up on your last one, TW said that me, Koshi, and him were the « respected town ». I find it quite suspect that one of the Three Musketeers was killed while he is trying to be chummy to the other. Already addressed. I see where he's coming from, I see why he makes a double case on the two of you, I understand his arguments. But I have difficulty buying into his case because it doesn't quite pass the test of "now why on earth would the scumteam do this". I can't fault him for seeing your response as distancing, since #92 has you raising buddying suspicions while still reading TW "more town than maf". And you didn't raise suspicions of TW sooner, but only when asked -- you had a whole hour in which to do it before he asked. On the other hand, coming into the thread you're pretty much guaranteed to be focused on Ray's D1 entry for a bit since he fingers you. And it's not exactly like you had a very strong townread on TW, it was more of a purely activity-based townlean on TW given no one else seemed to be playing at the time. So his concern is not unjustified, but it might be a bit of a stretch to label #92 as distancing. Fair enough. What is your overall evaluation of Ray though? This reads like a lean-town’ish read. Is that what it is? Ugh. Hope you can stay up late a bit and I'll maybe be up before you go beddybye. Meanwhile you owe me an answer for #104. Also more thorough re-eval on TW if you could, please, in light of new insights. Take a look at ExO for me especially #112 just in case I've incorrectly tunneled him town. And + Show Spoiler + On December 07 2016 00:32 NeverUnlucky wrote: If you have some non-math related questions for me, do ask. On December 07 2016 00:39 NeverUnlucky wrote: What do you think of [...] cakepie entering with math and hopeless checking in to check out? I’m sorry, but these two questions will have to wait for another time (perhaps later tonight if I’m productive). I spent more time than I thought I would just commenting and answering posts on page 6 and still have like 6 flagged posts I’d like to discuss, and I need to get some RL stuff done for tomorrow. What is your timezone for future reference? And, yes, I think debating whether the odds of scenario x are 45% or 59% is pointless and a waste of time. That was my face when i read through your argument with TW :+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.giphy.com/27EhcDHnlkw1O.gif) | ||
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On December 08 2016 10:49 Chairman Ray wrote: I don't think you represented my case fairly. I want to know what you think of TW and NU. When you read over their 'game math' posts, does it read to you like town who are actively trying to win the game? Why didn't you push them for it? They were not 'game math' posts as you put it. We were arguing why cop/medic should claim USING 'math' to demonstrate it. Also, you're hardly pushing either of us. You shared your thoughts on me and TW discussing game mechanics, but other than asking us why we town-leaned each other, you never engaged in a conversation with either of us to push us. That, and your whole contribution this game is about me and TW. So. What is your take on ExO and cakepie? | ||
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My reads right now are this: cakepie - strong town-lean based on content, and #127 was a town post Chairman Ray - scum-lean: his whole filter is him making a big deal out of the tw and my plans and churning it. He makes no comment on cakepie, ExO, H1 at all, and his comments on tw and I are limited to that aspect he keeps bringing back. ExO - weak scum-lean - posts are not impactful, and I disagree with cakepie on the post he said read town. In that post, he stated the obvious that town is in a bad spot and talked mechanics about why cop should claim, and that is his biggest post atm which is worrysome. However, I liked 129 and 153. TW - lean-scum: He has some later posts I haven't commented on that make me think he is befriending me, he is playing reactively rather than proactively, and he isn't sharing his thoughts on other players other than stating if they are active or not. I'm not entirely convinced by cakepie's case on him though. H1 - Null: Haven't read that guy yet. I've more scum-reads than town-reads, and that's why I am not confident in placing my vote today. | ||
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On December 09 2016 01:46 Tumblewood wrote: all scumhunting is anyway is taking someone's posting, comparing it to their meta, and comparing it to the "general meta" of how scum overall tend to act. I don't think it's disingenuous to say "the last time I saw someone act like this, they were scum". that's a pretty normal thought process to me I agree with TW here. cakepie, I think you're giving TW too much credit for 170 + Show Spoiler + On December 09 2016 01:24 Tumblewood wrote: just looked at ray's filter getting some red flags from him because a) he only focuses on me and NU b) he posts as if it is a given that NU and I are scum, even from his third or fourth post of the game there's a whole game out there, and ray is content to ignore it. maybe normal with someone heavily tunneled, but it's been that way all game. ray what do you think of 1der, ExO, and cakepie? On December 08 2016 23:25 NeverUnlucky wrote: I'm leaving for school soon, I'll be back in aout 3 hours and respond to cakepie and hopefully make the comments I wanted to make. My reads right now are this: cakepie - strong town-lean based on content, and #127 was a town post Chairman Ray - scum-lean: his whole filter is him making a big deal out of the tw and my plans and churning it. He makes no comment on cakepie, ExO, H1 at all, and his comments on tw and I are limited to that aspect he keeps bringing back. ExO - weak scum-lean - posts are not impactful, and I disagree with cakepie on the post he said read town. In that post, he stated the obvious that town is in a bad spot and talked mechanics about why cop should claim, and that is his biggest post atm which is worrysome. However, I liked 129 and 153. TW - lean-scum: He has some later posts I haven't commented on that make me think he is befriending me, he is playing reactively rather than proactively, and he isn't sharing his thoughts on other players other than stating if they are active or not. I'm not entirely convinced by cakepie's case on him though. H1 - Null: Haven't read that guy yet. I've more scum-reads than town-reads, and that's why I am not confident in placing my vote today. On December 08 2016 11:00 NeverUnlucky wrote: They were not 'game math' posts as you put it. We were arguing why cop/medic should claim USING 'math' to demonstrate it. Also, you're hardly pushing either of us. You shared your thoughts on me and TW discussing game mechanics, but other than asking us why we town-leaned each other, you never engaged in a conversation with either of us to push us. That, and your whole contribution this game is about me and TW. So. What is your take on ExO and cakepie? | ||
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On December 08 2016 11:17 Chairman Ray wrote: If you and TW are interested in using math to demonstrate whether or not cop should claim, why the sudden lack of interest today? Exo made a strong push in favor of cop claiming. TW made a short mention that cop should only claim if he checks red. You haven't mentioned anything at all. I would expect that TW should be fighting hard against Exo and you to have some sort of opinion as well. You two were so passionate yesterday but you don't seem to care today. where he completely disregarded my question and my point on him not pushing us. | ||
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On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote: I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me. @Exo, I still would like an explanation for the bolded | ||
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He has two posts of substance being 124 and 126. 124: + Show Spoiler + On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote: ExO has maintained that the cop should claim. I dont particularly agree, I'd rather tempt fate on a no-lynch and have the cop end-of-night phase post their N0 check, with the possibility of getting a N1 check as well. Besides that, ExO is doing a poor job of actually reading the thread, and I'm not sure where that falls on the scummy/stupid scale so I dont want to pursue a lynch there. I like CR's posts, his suspicions, questions, justifications for everything are well reasoned and show appropriate suspicion. I do not like NU's overly defensive tone following the daypost when CR accused TW/NU of hiding behind poorly reasoned math. + Show Spoiler [#86] + On December 07 2016 10:01 NeverUnlucky wrote: I find it opportunistic that you call me and tw out on our lack of assumptions now that the medic was shanked rather than when we were actually discussing it ie I doubt that you would be reproaching us this if it was a VT that flipped today. Also, I dislike that you are entering the day with two targets you'd like to see lynched, especially since pretty much nothing happened N0, so I don't understand how you're ready to see myself or tw lynched already. Also, I don't think your justification to scum-read either of us is worthy of calling us lynch targets. Especially the 2nd paragraph in the above spoiler, it reads to me as less about NU being one of the targets and more about CR having more than one target, when they're being accused with same reasoning. Why would CR be inclined to single someone out in this scenario? To me, there's no reason for it and NU's post comes off as contrived to me. As you said, most of the TW material has been covered so I'll skip over it. Also, I think you're town. My vote preferences are: 1-No-Lynch 2-TW 3-NU 4-ExO 5-CR 6-cake 7-me -His ExO read is wishy-washy. -I disagree with his CR read, but at least he is consistent with it in 126 + Show Spoiler + On December 08 2016 04:41 Hopeless1der wrote: Re: CR - I wouldn't dismiss the notion out of hand, but its not high on my gutcheck rating. Being able to come out on blue-planning is a really safe way for mafia to seem invested without actually doing anything. That is only compounded by the fact that our doc got shot first, rendering a huge portion of N0 reasoning useless for the purposes of planning. CR is at least trying to use those posts to get reads. Re: ExO - There are those two posts, and then there is him somehow thinking there are 50+ pages [#96. #97]. That might have been sarcasm? I'm not seeing a motive for him to do this as either faction other than straight up carelessness, its more of an annoyance than a scumread atm. -His paragraph on me states that my tone is defensive, but when I read the post he quoted, I have the opposite impression of the post. It reads as aggressive as I'm the one who's attacking CR. He even acknowledges that in his following paragraph, so I think he's being inconsistent here. Also, clarification @hopeless: I was not calling out Ray for having more than one target; I was calling him out for ENTERING the day with targets in mind ie it feels fabricated to start a day with an idea of who to push. -Lazy sheeping of cake's tw read. My take: Null? I disagree with him on points, and he seems lazy on some other points, but I can't find anything objectively scummy in his filter. Hopeless: What is your updated read on CR, myself and Exo? | ||
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On December 09 2016 02:45 Tumblewood wrote: hm I'm trying to get out of the town tunnel mindset on NU so I'm trying to make a scum case on him but I actually have no dirt (besides my personal vendetta on the word opportunistic). is anyone scumreading him? I want some perspective here. xD If it helps you, here's my filter from last game. I was scum and lynched D1 (This was 8 days ago). | ||
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I honestly don't think much of the talk of "spite vote" if it even is one. Reading the previous sentence leading to this statement ("you're taking one persons meta and applying it to another person. Thats fucking ludicrous"), he might've been pissed at TW (though I don't see why, TW's post was not a "piss-off" imo). Dunno. TW, update on your scum-filter-dive of me?  | ||
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On December 09 2016 03:15 cakepie wrote: Did H1 just vote and bugger off? Meh. Yes. Also, I noticed that in his last post he wrote: "My previous list stands" I find it hard to believe that his stance on CRay, ExO and me haven't changed since, especially since I think that his reads weren't strong at the time. | ||
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For now, I've an essay to write that is due in 4 hours (same time as EoN), so if I can't make an appearance before EoN, this is my order of lynching in case I get killed: Ray TW ExO H1 cakepie I'll expand on that if I get the chance to. Meanwhile, I'd like these questions answered: @Ray -- Why do you think cakepie, H1, and ExO are town? @H1 -- What was that vote? @ExO -- Would you have voted/hammered TW if you were there at EoD? @TW -- fyi, I don't think your different treatment of me was an attempt at buddying anymore.But why did you 'defend' me against Ray? What were your motivations to do so? @cakepie -- What is your stance on Chairman Ray now? I have not seen your read of him evolve since the beginning of day 1. | ||
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On December 10 2016 07:10 cakepie wrote: Hmmm. What are your checks? Which of me/Ray do you have a green on? I'm guessing Ray because you don't want me to go after him? | ||
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On December 10 2016 07:12 NeverUnlucky wrote: What are your checks? Which of me/Ray do you have a green on? I'm guessing Ray because you don't want me to go after him? ??? Don't make me go through your filter seeking for your checks pleeeease. zzz | ||
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(^ This is assuming that either cakepie's N0 or N1 check was H1 as his entry in the day re: "Hmmm." does not suggest that he has 2 greenchecks aka a 100% win or a red-check) So I'll be back later. | ||
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One of cakepie/TW is scum, and I'm leaning towards TW right now. TW, can you please show me your crumbs? | ||
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On December 06 2016 15:56 Tumblewood wrote: pls it's 25/42 odds (so about 59%?) of prerequisites. anyway even if the odds slightly favor us I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring On December 08 2016 12:19 Tumblewood wrote: also funny th\t 1der's list of who to lynch is the reverse of mine, perfectly (except no lynch is still at the top ofc) On December 08 2016 15:29 Tumblewood wrote: idk I've only been around for a year but players who haven't played in a long time seem to be more anal than most. cakepie could be town but if so he's town that's really pissing me off. 1der too. if I had to guess it's between cakepie, 1der and ray because none of them have made me lean town at any point. On December 09 2016 07:19 Tumblewood wrote: tonight I will have a lot of time, which I will use to post extensive/organized reads (actually I have about 45 minutes to answer questions now). given that I had two votes and no one hammered, we can eliminate the following scum teams: ExO + NU ExO + 1der 1der + NU all other teams (there are 15 possible) would either need an extra town vote to hammer or include me. I strongly believe that both members of the scum team fall within cakepie, ray, and 1der. On December 09 2016 09:22 Tumblewood wrote: The case on Hopeless1der Preamble I plan on writing posts like this for each player still alive besides myself, going in order the filters are listed. This isn't necessarily an indictment but an analysis of each player and a reasoned guess to their alignment, trying to start from square one and not cloud my judgement with previous bias. I will not go through every post, but I will use quotes liberally. The case for
The case against
Verdict Probable scum. There are reasons to believe 1der is not scum, but his game is so focused on getting me lynched (especially given his shortage of original reasons) that it is hard to see him as town. There is 0 crumbs suggesting you checked H1, this is a fake-claim. Also, why wouldn't you have claimed cop when you had 2 votes and the pressure of a third if you were cop? ##Vote: tumblewood | ||
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TW is in the top of most people's scum-reads so it makes perfect sense for him to all-in and hope he gets a ML / trades 1 for 1 with the cop and gets his partner to clean up in mylo | ||
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On December 10 2016 09:02 Tumblewood wrote: I didn't claim because I had confidence that both of the people voting me were mafia, and there would be at least two townies who were skeptical. and they were. so now we have both scum confirmed instead of just one. also please don't vote me. as soon as both scum are online they can snap-vote me and end the game right there. Okay, but where are your so-called crumbs? I've checked your filter and found NOTHING of that matter. You complained about blue roles a couple of times and were scum-reading H1 the whole fucking time, you even had him as top lynch at some point. This makes no sense from a cop who has a green check on h1's perspective. I'm not unvoting you until you can convince me that you are the real cop, if the two scum hammer you and u flip VT it's your own fault for fake-claiming as VT. Besides if you're town, cakepie is scum and he is sleeping atm. | ||
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On December 10 2016 09:07 Tumblewood wrote: and by please don't vote me I mean unvote immediately do you want to lose the game ok, sorry, might have been a little too overzealous. ##Unvote | ||
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On December 10 2016 09:16 Tumblewood wrote: so that's where I crumbed my checks But dude, if you were NKed, nobody would've thought about looking this deep into your filter ie your death would've been pointless. Also, you didn't claim before EoN what your checks were/were going to be like cakepie did (Although i still dont know what they would be). It looks fabricated to me. That's what a mafia crumb would look like imo | ||
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On December 10 2016 09:21 Tumblewood wrote: we have 48 hours (well, 46 now) to discuss. if you really think I'm scum, vote me toward the end of that 48 hours in case you change your mind Outline to me why cakepie is mafia. No big post, just bullet points. | ||
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On December 10 2016 09:24 NeverUnlucky wrote: And why is your vote still on Ray then? Nvm, it makes sense to keep there if ur the cop with a red-check on Ray. | ||
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On December 10 2016 09:38 Tumblewood wrote: I was busy as usual fron 1:15 to 2:15 and figured that if I couldn't post just before deadline it was best to wait till after so I wouldn't die, because I was preeetty confident mafia wouldn't kill the #1 scumread of most of the game Okay, right. I'm not fully sold on your previous post on cakepie tbh. It's kind of a weak read I think. How would you describe your confidence on your reads that are not CR in %? On December 10 2016 09:39 Tumblewood wrote: and i don't know that there's a difference between mafia and town crumbing, except maybe in the timing. Forget that, I wouldn't know. | ||
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Mafia double-claimed??????? | ||
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Plus, cakepie and Ray were voting and unvoting together, it looks like they were coordinated in some way. Also, cakepie's always been against me going after Ray and he discredited me saying that my read on Ray was OMGUS when it wasn't. It started out as OMGUS, but as Ray got stuck on page 5 by page while we were on page like 13, it wasn't an OMGUS read anymore, but a legit one. | ||
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On December 10 2016 09:58 cakepie wrote: NU you're painfully obviously not cop. Even without your awful rolecrumb. What rolecrumb???? And why would you be looking at crumbs? | ||
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##Vote Chairman Ray If you hammer, please have the decency of telling your alignment while we wait for the end game post. | ||
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On December 10 2016 10:04 Chairman Ray wrote: Still catching up on the thread, but here's a couple things I want answered: @cakepie: Why did you fakeclaim? @NeverUnlucky: At the time, 2 cops have claimed. Why were you under the suspicion that one of them might be VT, and why did you vote on TW, despite claiming the possibility that he's VT? Because if they're not cop nor mafia, they're VT. It's possible that TW/cakepie/you is VT but that would make you fucking stupid for counter-claiming the real cop for whatever reason ESPECIALLY IN MYLO. And I don't think neither of you is dumb, so I pretty much conclude that 2/3 are mafia. | ||
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On December 10 2016 10:05 Chairman Ray wrote: How did you know game was going to end? SCUMSLIP SCUMSLIP SCUMSLIP It obviously was a mistake. You're fucking mafia and everything you say doesn't matter nor should be taken seriously. | ||
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On December 10 2016 10:01 NeverUnlucky wrote: What rolecrumb???? And why would you be looking at crumbs? | ||
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On December 10 2016 10:09 cakepie wrote: We're going to wait for ExO and see if he wants to get coffee and donuts with us. ExO get yo ass in here. Why would you think that ExO would want to claim cop following 282? | ||
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I know for a fact that I did not intentionally crumb VT, so if a post makes you think that way either I slipped VT or you misinterpreted it. And hunting for VT crumbs/claims is hunting for blue roles through PoE... Even if you were looking for VT crumbs/claims, you have a grand total of 0 reasons to do so as town. It doesn't serve you shit. | ||
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On December 10 2016 10:33 cakepie wrote: NU, have you read my hugefuckingcase? Don't be lazy. Read it. We're going to need to solve this game with very little help of cop powers. All your cases are huge. Which one is it specifically? If it's the one on TW, I only skimmed it and read the conclusion. | ||
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On December 10 2016 10:37 NeverUnlucky wrote: All your cases are huge. Which one is it specifically? If it's the one on TW, I only skimmed it and read the conclusion. Nvm, think it's 276 you want me to fully read. brb in an hour | ||
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But, for starters : There is a major flaw in your case. You start the case with the assumption that ExO and TW are scum, and that they are scum-buddies. Every point you make, every post you see only reinforces that idea, and I can't agree with you half the time you make associative reads. The best instance of this I've read so far is this: "#240Continues to townread NU (pocket) and ExO (scumbuddy)" You already have in mind that they are scumbuddies, and that TW town-reading me is therefore inherently an attempt at pocketing me while his TR on ExO is cus they're scumbuds. There is a fair bit of OMGUS on your part in there. There are far too many comments that don't bring anything to the case that are (I think) snarky comments/jokes, and for a case this loooong, it just makes it heavier to read. Be concise, get to the point. I've largely agreed with the analysis of 8 of the posts you dissected, and largely disagreed with 3 of them thus far. I'll post the list and my comments later or tomorrow, whenever (if ever) I have the motivation to pursue to read this case. | ||
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On December 10 2016 10:51 cakepie wrote: Because that means you'd win. Either as townwinner or as scumwinner. You're only interested in using your claim and checks to solve the game by yourself. That's very selfish. It's lylo. You have to convince town of your claim. You have to dispel all counterclaims. You shouldn't just dump it and expect everyone to take it at face value. You have to show why your checks, PLUS the available evidence in the game thread, all ties together in a coherent narrative that solves the game. Unfortunately, craycray and I don't have reads that in themselves solve the game. As I already said, we have to solve this game with very little help of cop powers. Assuming all cop claims being equal and nothing else, we need to be given a fair chance to put together our respective narratives. The last paragraph is basically him implying that him and CRay are not cops. | ||
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On December 10 2016 13:27 Tumblewood wrote: I think cakepie is now calling that a fakeclaim? because clearly he doesn't have much of a problem with ray, and he asked you if you were cop, but there's no point where he officially rescinds his claim. one of the worst claims/fakeclaims I've ever seen Why are you saying claim/fake-claim if you're cop???? | ||
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And as I said, I'm now on TW's side and think that the scummers are CP and CR. This was left unanswered: On December 10 2016 10:01 NeverUnlucky wrote: I don't think TW/cakepie or Ray/TW are teams given that Ray and cakepie wanted to lynch TW day 1. Bussing is so bad in this setup, I don't know why they'd bus. Plus, cakepie and Ray were voting and unvoting together, it looks like they were coordinated in some way. Also, cakepie's always been against me going after Ray and he discredited me saying that my read on Ray was OMGUS when it wasn't. It started out as OMGUS, but as Ray got stuck on page 5 by page while we were on page like 13, it wasn't an OMGUS read anymore, but a legit one. I'm heading off and I'll sleep on it. | ||
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CP: If you really are VT and your goal was to bullet-bait, why did you not rescind your claim immediately after the EoN post? You keeping your claim until the tables flipped and rescinding then is really strange and scummy. Rescinding after the day started wouldn't have affected your intent of bullet baiting as the NK was already done. Also, if your intent was to bullet bait, why would you post it at :59? You're not letting scum a lot of time to react, so your intent of taking the bullet as VT would be nullified. You talk about the possibility that I am a scummer with Ray, but you are town-reading us both. I'm stressing "talk the possibility" because you did not say why me or Ray would be scum individually. So, what about my play and Ray's play would make us scum? Why do you think that my read on Ray is not on good faith? Why do you believe Ray's claim over TW's? | ||
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You say you are 100% behind TW's claim. How confident in % are you in your reads of me, Ray and CP? How do you explain TW scum-reading his green-check the entirety of day 1 and making cases on 3 of the 5 other players, starting with his green-check and not doing a case on who he scum-read and ended up checking? Similarly to CP, day 1 you said that I could be scum, but never really got in detail there. I found it suspicious that you said that you wish that I were here more when I had been pretty active before that day, yet, you had never engaged me. It felt like a back-stab ie you TR me when I'm here and start discussing the possiblity of me being scum when I'm away. Why did/do you think I could be scum? Please tell me why you think CP is scum. | ||
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Same question I asked ExO re: "How do you explain scum-reading [your] green-check the entirety of day 1 and making cases on 3 of the 5 other players, starting with [your] green-check and not doing a case on who [you] scum-read and ended up checking?" | ||
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Who do you think is scum with TW? You said you thought ExO, CP, and H1 were town yesterday, and now you are town-reading me (?). So who's scum and why? All your arguments for you being cop are that TW is not cop. Why are you cop? Why tf would you have checked Koshi aka the guy with the highest % of chances to die N0? | ||
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And how did you go from 'NU scumslipped' to NU may be town? | ||
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The associative read you've made makes sense to me, but like all associative reads, it doesn't really mean much until either TW or ExO has flipped. Ie it makes a lot of sense if we know that either TW or ExO flipped red/is red, but making assumptions without that information is going too far. | ||
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On December 11 2016 02:09 Tumblewood wrote: just catching up now it would have looked weird to act like everything was ok with 1der, because for a townie he looked preeeetty scummy. for the same reason, it would have looked like TMI if I had acted like I knew 1der was town when as VT I would have probably been calling him scum. I checked ray because I was uncertain about him, which was partially caused by the fact that I never organized my thoughts about him. initially I planned to get to everyone but making large cases burns me out fast. hope this clears it up for ya Not entirely. Why would you start by casing your green-check? If you're limited on time, you should be keeping him for last as you know his alignment as cop and not CRay/me. What do you think of cakepie and CRay's reasons to TR H1 since you find him scummy? Do you think they are fabricated/TMI? | ||
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On December 10 2016 16:26 cakepie wrote: I did concede to you toward EoD1 that he was falling into scum territory. Also, I don't think I ever pressured NU and H1 very much either? Bolded is false?? Couldn't find it anywhere in your EoD posts. | ||
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So, uh, while we wait for ExO n' Ray, ask me questions if you have some. | ||
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On December 11 2016 04:39 cakepie wrote: Oh hi NU still here? Yeah, but my SC2 game just started, be back in like 30. | ||
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On December 11 2016 04:41 cakepie wrote: Do we agree that we can just stop talking to ExO and throw out all of ExO's D2? I lose the game by mislynching TW You lose the game by mislynching Ray It's actually that simple. ????????????????????????????? no? I'm actually thinking ExO is town over you. And wtf is that thing about losing and mislynching? I don't get it at all. And I still have got no evidence to believe CR is cop from you | ||
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On December 11 2016 04:59 ExO_ wrote: [...] And again Day 1 I wrote the impressions I got as I read the thread. What motivation would I have to "backstab" you as scum? I wasn't trying to push you when you were afk at all. I find it a bit odd that right now you seem to care a lot about what people thought/think about you. But that's something to consider for another time. It's not because the read is about me that I'm asking for the 'why'. It's because you threw out a 'possible' mafia read in the thread and left it there with no explanation and never referred to it later. Idc how others have been perceiving me re: I didn't even respond to Ray's/H1's cases/reasons as to why they thought I was scum. It's just not right for you nor CP to call me scum with nothing to show for. But you're dodging the question re: Why did/do you think I could be scum? | ||
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On December 11 2016 05:27 ExO_ wrote: and if CR was cop where are his breadcrumbs? where is he trying to convince people that TW is fake claiming? If I was the cop and somebody fake claimed I wouldn't post a total of 6 times after my claim and that's it. He's not making any effort at all. This is so easy it's a joke. I'm surprised cakepie hasn't started saying things like "maybe I'm wrong, I'm doubting myself, maybe CR really is scum" because CR isn't even trying anymore. I think town has this won. CR/Cakepie scum team Yeah, that's the biggest point imo. He's not even bothering to sell his claim to the town. | ||
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On December 11 2016 05:28 cakepie wrote: NU. Remember these weird things we both noticed? - TW goes from mylo to a plan for D3 - ExO "unwillingly" tries to make a scumread on TW, but couches it in language that blames me Yes? That makes CRay cop? | ||
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On December 11 2016 05:29 ExO_ wrote: Because I don't have perfect information, and because I have a history in mafia games of completely misreading people. Look at touhou mafia I was sure that Skynx couldn't be scum and he was. I don't think you are scum, but it's not impossible. The longer this thread goes on the less and less I think you are scum but I cannot know for sure wtf that's the definition of an empty read | ||
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On December 11 2016 05:40 ExO_ wrote: ##Vote: ChairmanRay I'm going to go ahead and do this, I don't see any more reason to wait. If you have a reason why we shouldn't vote already let me know soon NU, before I go play more PoE or dota. I don't have a problem with that. I'll wait for him to come back from his trip to hear what he has to say before hammering though. | ||
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And it has nothing to do with generations. Nor with the fake-claim. It's about Ray's claim being BS. But I'll hear you guys out like I did for TW. If you would please condense as much as possible your case(s), it would be much appreciated. | ||
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On December 11 2016 06:03 cakepie wrote: Cakepie options. Convince NU that: ExO is scum individually cake is town Ray is town feel free to cross out any others. ? Your prime goal right now is to convince me that TW is scum and Ray's town. Idc about ExO nor you for today, neither of you are today's lynch. The lynch is always between TW and CRay if that wasn't obvious. On December 11 2016 05:58 ExO_ wrote: I think turning this into a 2v2 was a mistake. CR is so clearly scum, and you're going down with him. I guess the play tonight will be to kill me then try to convince NU of something? If mafia kill you over TW tomorrow night, they are fucking retarded and they lose the game because Ray's lynch confirms TW as cop, and his presence in lylo guarantees a town win. | ||
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On December 11 2016 06:07 cakepie wrote: Pick one. Which is it. It's both jeez. They're saying the fucking same thing. Stop beating around the bush and get to work already. | ||
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Holy fuck, seriously? This is the second time you bring this up in less than an hour. If it didn't convince me the first, it won't the second time. And it certainly isn't the case I was expecting for TW to be scum. If you're trying to piss me off you're doing a good job. | ||
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On December 11 2016 06:28 cakepie wrote: Actually, let's start from a different angle. You said I'm not likely to convince you that TW is scum. Let's town Ray. WTF, dude, do you not understand that Ray being town relies on TW being scum? To convince me of one requires convincing me of both: There is 100% one town and one mafia in TW/CR, they are correlated. | ||
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But okay, I'll bite. Yes, we seem to play two different games. You apparently play in a world where who is mafia and who is town is determined by how much town credits they've earned (?) and how they have contributed to the game. While I live by the philosophy that one single action/post can make someone undoubtedly scum. Your 'generation' has a fetish for posting walls of text hunting for logic while 'mine' prefers shorter posts and back and forth discussion. This method favors reading players emotionally. Can you tell me where you are going with this? | ||
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I had plans of watching Sleepy Hollows before going to sleep. I don't really feel like arguing now. I'm in a happy mood. Or rather I was. | ||
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I think it's better for both of us if I read what you've to tell me tomorrow. I'm not in the mood to argue, and you're too optimistic to deal with my impatience. | ||
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On December 11 2016 13:25 cakepie wrote: If you're still with me, I can show you why H1's death makes Ray and I town by the old guards ways, and why the rest of you are newblood who don't get it. Which is why you're so willing to listen to the scum. Ugh, okay. | ||
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On December 11 2016 13:27 cakepie wrote: We can make this a discussion instead of me posting a tutorial. I was going to make a tutorial under the assumption you're not around. But you're here. we're already discussing. How well are you following #465? I see how you guys read, but don't know why you'd be giving everyone such a big margin of error when mafia are obviously going to try and make as few mistakes as possible. I don't really want a tutorial. My way of playing works re: found both scummers D1 last game. I'm more interested in knowing why Ray is town and TW is scum. | ||
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On December 11 2016 13:33 cakepie wrote: Look, I'm not actually that optimistic. If you really struggle to follow, then I'm wasting my time anyways. You can go ahead and hammer and someone else can tell you guys what happened this game. And I can actually go rest my cold. But if you're willing to listen in good faith -- that's the first lesson you need to learn -- then I have some hope of clawing back the win. It's not likely, but I'm playing to my wincon here and refusing to continue letting my team down like I've been doing the whole of early D2. This is all wifom to you, of course. Do you truly have an open heart and a willingness to learn? Well yeah, I'm following and listening, but it's pretty hard to have an open heart and be willing to learn when I have no clue where this leads nor how it'll end up making Ray town. | ||
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Do show me why his flip points to TW and ExO. | ||
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On December 11 2016 13:44 ExO_ wrote: NU we know that between CR and TW there is a scum. This is a fact, there's no debating it. And yet what has CP spent the entire time doing? Trying to convince you that I'm scum. He's yet to come in and demonstrate how CR is town. And where the hell is CR in all of this? CP is trying his damnedest I'll give him that but CR is the clear scum here. Please don't throw the game because CP talked your ear off I know, I know. I'm giving him the chance to highlight his case/pov like I did with TW. | ||
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On December 11 2016 13:48 NeverUnlucky wrote: I know, I know. I'm giving him the chance to highlight his case/pov like I did with TW. Call it "good faith". | ||
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On December 11 2016 13:52 cakepie wrote: Fuck you, you can go ahead and hammer now. Don't waste my time. ???? You've just taken an hour of my time and made me miss my movie for this? To tell me that I don't know how to play and to tell me "Fuck you"? I'm shocked and utterly pissed. I want to hammer you now, not Ray. Fuck you. | ||
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Yeah, I know. I wrote that out of anger. I'm at the point where I'm deleting all the posts I'm drafting cause of toxicity. So, I'll go to bed. | ||
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On December 11 2016 14:02 cakepie wrote: Okay. I will try to show you how I apply 465+475+481 to solve everything. But you're not really as receptive as you need to be. Listen, I'm not going to listen to you one bit if you're telling me "Fuck you" and other shit. I don't deserve it. And you don't deserve my attention if this is what you're going to tell me when I've dedicated my time to you "out of good faith". I'm out. | ||
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cakepie, why are you the one who's bringing sense to Ray's cop claim and not him? I've asked him a couple o' times to explain his claim and the best answer I got was from you re: 512 Also, I get your points for scum-reading TW, but you don't address why his cop claim is fake which I think is the cornerstone of today's lynch. Unlike Ray, TW has a lot of points to show for to prove that he is cop. The answers to the questions he's given me make sense. Why is it null for me to choose the scum explanation but is mafia AI for TW and ExO? | ||
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On December 12 2016 04:53 ExO_ wrote: Although if NU just doesn't vote you 2 are going to win anyway :/. This is honestly the worst feeling, knowing that I've solved the game as VT and might just lose anyway because NU didn't vote with a deadline in 2 hours. I will vote. I was going to yesterday but cp posted a wot, and it made me feel uneasy to vote ray after disregarding what cp's said. | ||
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On December 12 2016 05:00 Chairman Ray wrote: I answered your question earier about why i checked koshi. Im on my phone so cant go back and quote. But let me ask you this, do you think it's reasonable for the real cop to get a greencheck, and then spend a lot of effort scumreading them the following day? Yeah you did, but the answer did not convince me. It's pretty convenient that your N0 check is the dude who died. CP's explanation makes your claim make sense, but it comes from his mouth and not yours. It should be the opposite. No, it doesn't make sense, but I can buy his explanation. | ||
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On December 12 2016 05:09 ExO_ wrote: GG god dammit NU scum wins I'm scum | ||
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On December 12 2016 07:10 Tumblewood wrote: one question for the scum team: why kill 1der instead of ExO? you could have easily found one stray vote on me out of 1der and cakepie I bought his blue crumbs. His "cakepie, can I sheep you" and "cop don't claim" posts (he was the only to voice against cop claiming and cop hadn't claimed) made me think he was cop with a green on CP. | ||
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On December 13 2016 09:14 Koshi wrote: This looked like a fun game. fuck you mafia for not letting me play. Didn't want to disrespect you | ||
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