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On December 08 2016 08:05 ExO_ wrote:
Anywho if we can no lynch though that changes everything. There'd be no pressure for scum to fake claim. Should absolutely no lynch, and have cop reveal at the very end of tomorrow night.
We can no lynch as long as nobody cumulates 4 votes today.
I'm currently weighing in favor of this idea as I don't feel comfortable placing my vote on anybody just yet and I find that our N0 and D1 were not very productive. It also allows the cop to have an extra night to get a check of his choice if he isn't killed.
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On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote:
TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming
I did touch that topic actually : On December 06 2016 09:33 NeverUnlucky wrote:
I agree that cop should claim at day start, and I also think that the medic should claim. NO VT EVER CC's. Force 1 on 1 with mafia or have up to 3 confirmed town if cop gets a green check who lives through the night.
So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence.
I am confused here. A blue died last night which is not the scenario tw or I described N0. Can you clarify what the coincidence is?
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On December 08 2016 02:50 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 01:11 NeverUnlucky wrote:
Also, I may be digging too deep here, but TW’s progression on Koshi
[...]
he backed down on his statement of Koshi acting town when I questioned him. Show nested quote +#72 TW states NK between TW, NU, Koshi. #74 NU asks TW why NU, TU, and Koshi are town #77 TW answers that NU, TW, Koshi town due to give-a-shitness #78 13 min later TW changes his mind, decides Koshi town for "the whole 'respect kill' thing" and had not intended to "lump him in with [NU+TW]" [for give-a-shitness]. You misread / misunderstood / misremember (misrepresent?) I don't see him changing his mind about Koshi being town. He changed his mind about why Koshi is town for him -- but not in response to your questioning (#74) since his answers were both after. (#77,#78)
No, I did not misread/misrep/misinterpreted/misunderstood/misremember (lol). My point was that he backed down on Koshi acting town when I questioned him. He went from Koshi, him, me are respected and acting town to Koshi is town for the respect kill thing once I asked him to explain how all of us were acting town. That’s the suspicious part about his read progression.
I did flag his behavior over the course that sequence of posts, though. #101: In any case, those posts scream circlejerk to me. Why is he making such a hardsell of himself as townie based on just noisy activity on N0, without being under fire? Why such rush to form towncircle? In hindsight, did TW prepare to paint himself green with Koshi's blood?
Good questions.
To follow up on your last one, TW said that me, Koshi, and him were the « respected town ». I find it quite suspect that one of the Three Musketeers was killed while he is trying to be chummy to the other.
Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 01:11 NeverUnlucky wrote:
Meanwhile, cakepie, what are your thoughts on Ray’s follow up posts regarding his question to me and TW and his explanation of his first d1 post? Already addressed. Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 22:02 cakepie wrote:I was originally rather uncomfortable with how C-Ray was just tarring both TW and NU with the same brush without evaluating between the two, but #106 explained that to some extent for me, insofar that at least I see he's coming from the angle where they have to be scum together. I'm not completely convinced that both scum would come out together and try to dictate badplan to town, though, something doesn't quite click there when I try to find the scum motivation -- it seems unnecessarily YOLO when all it takes for scum to win is one mislynch. I see where he's coming from, I see why he makes a double case on the two of you, I understand his arguments. But I have difficulty buying into his case because it doesn't quite pass the test of "now why on earth would the scumteam do this". I can't fault him for seeing your response as distancing, since #92 has you raising buddying suspicions while still reading TW "more town than maf". And you didn't raise suspicions of TW sooner, but only when asked -- you had a whole hour in which to do it before he asked. On the other hand, coming into the thread you're pretty much guaranteed to be focused on Ray's D1 entry for a bit since he fingers you. And it's not exactly like you had a very strong townread on TW, it was more of a purely activity-based townlean on TW given no one else seemed to be playing at the time. So his concern is not unjustified, but it might be a bit of a stretch to label #92 as distancing.
Fair enough. What is your overall evaluation of Ray though? This reads like a lean-town’ish read. Is that what it is?
Show nested quote +I have some other comments/responses I’d like to make but my course is starting atm. I’ll share those when I’m home in about 8 hours. Ugh. Hope you can stay up late a bit and I'll maybe be up before you go beddybye. Meanwhile you owe me an answer for #104. Also more thorough re-eval on TW if you could, please, in light of new insights. Take a look at ExO for me especially #112 just in case I've incorrectly tunneled him town. And + Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 00:32 NeverUnlucky wrote:
If you have some non-math related questions for me, do ask. On December 07 2016 00:39 NeverUnlucky wrote:
What do you think of [...] cakepie entering with math and hopeless checking in to check out? do you have something against math?
I’m sorry, but these two questions will have to wait for another time (perhaps later tonight if I’m productive). I spent more time than I thought I would just commenting and answering posts on page 6 and still have like 6 flagged posts I’d like to discuss, and I need to get some RL stuff done for tomorrow.
What is your timezone for future reference?
And, yes, I think debating whether the odds of scenario x are 45% or 59% is pointless and a waste of time. That was my face when i read through your argument with TW :+ Show Spoiler +
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On December 08 2016 10:49 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 07:55 ExO_ wrote:On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote:
I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios.
I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.
Ray looks sketchy to me.
TW looks Town. Just to expand on my previous point, I didn't mean that scum would only post in best case scenarios, but instead that they might mistakenly ignore a very obvious scenario that town wouldn't. The one scenario that was almost ignored was a blue getting killed N0. If they were town, they could have genuinely believed that if a blue died, we don't have to do anything differently, but if they were mafia, maybe they weren't planning to blue snipe so they ignored it. But the bigger thing they left out was the scenario that mafia fakeclaims, in which case there are no confirmed town or redchecks on D1. There's a fairly good chunk of math in this scenario which they shouldn't have ignored. Unless of course they knew that mafia wasn't going to fakeclaim, and look where we are now. So just to summarize, these are my suspicions:
- TW and NU post math assuming that blue roles don't die - Koshi was killed, who I don't think was a blue snipe
- TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming
So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence. This is what I have a problem with @cakepie. TW and NU post math that assume blue roles don't die. But that's not scummy in the slightest. Scum have absolutely 0 way of knowing if they are going to catch a blue or a VT. They mapped out scenarios in which blues don't die on N0 and then blues did die on N0. The scenario didn't happen exactly as they assumed. The lack of fake claiming at this point doesn't mean much. It will happen eventually but just because it hadn't happened (and especially when CR posted) doesn't mean it won't happen. Using all of that reasoning to imply that TW and NU are scum is complete bullshit imo. And the cherry on top is he back pedals with "but its possible they were just casually speaking whatever was on the top of their mind" Summed up "Yeah I wanna imply that you guys are scum with really bad reasoning, but not commit to it." Looks sketchy and very possible scum-filler type of post. I don't think you represented my case fairly. I want to know what you think of TW and NU. When you read over their 'game math' posts, does it read to you like town who are actively trying to win the game? Why didn't you push them for it?
They were not 'game math' posts as you put it. We were arguing why cop/medic should claim USING 'math' to demonstrate it.
Also, you're hardly pushing either of us. You shared your thoughts on me and TW discussing game mechanics, but other than asking us why we town-leaned each other, you never engaged in a conversation with either of us to push us. That, and your whole contribution this game is about me and TW.
So. What is your take on ExO and cakepie?
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I'm leaving for school soon, I'll be back in aout 3 hours and respond to cakepie and hopefully make the comments I wanted to make.
My reads right now are this:
cakepie - strong town-lean based on content, and #127 was a town post
Chairman Ray - scum-lean: his whole filter is him making a big deal out of the tw and my plans and churning it. He makes no comment on cakepie, ExO, H1 at all, and his comments on tw and I are limited to that aspect he keeps bringing back.
ExO - weak scum-lean - posts are not impactful, and I disagree with cakepie on the post he said read town. In that post, he stated the obvious that town is in a bad spot and talked mechanics about why cop should claim, and that is his biggest post atm which is worrysome. However, I liked 129 and 153.
TW - lean-scum: He has some later posts I haven't commented on that make me think he is befriending me, he is playing reactively rather than proactively, and he isn't sharing his thoughts on other players other than stating if they are active or not. I'm not entirely convinced by cakepie's case on him though.
H1 - Null: Haven't read that guy yet.
I've more scum-reads than town-reads, and that's why I am not confident in placing my vote today.
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On December 09 2016 01:46 Tumblewood wrote:
all scumhunting is anyway is taking someone's posting, comparing it to their meta, and comparing it to the "general meta" of how scum overall tend to act. I don't think it's disingenuous to say "the last time I saw someone act like this, they were scum". that's a pretty normal thought process to me
I agree with TW here.
cakepie, I think you're giving TW too much credit for 170 + Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 01:24 Tumblewood wrote:
just looked at ray's filter
getting some red flags from him because
a) he only focuses on me and NU
b) he posts as if it is a given that NU and I are scum, even from his third or fourth post of the game
there's a whole game out there, and ray is content to ignore it. maybe normal with someone heavily tunneled, but it's been that way all game.
ray what do you think of 1der, ExO, and cakepie? On December 08 2016 23:25 NeverUnlucky wrote:I'm leaving for school soon, I'll be back in aout 3 hours and respond to cakepie and hopefully make the comments I wanted to make. My reads right now are this: cakepie - strong town-lean based on content, and #127 was a town post Chairman Ray - scum-lean: his whole filter is him making a big deal out of the tw and my plans and churning it. He makes no comment on cakepie, ExO, H1 at all, and his comments on tw and I are limited to that aspect he keeps bringing back.
ExO - weak scum-lean - posts are not impactful, and I disagree with cakepie on the post he said read town. In that post, he stated the obvious that town is in a bad spot and talked mechanics about why cop should claim, and that is his biggest post atm which is worrysome. However, I liked 129 and 153. TW - lean-scum: He has some later posts I haven't commented on that make me think he is befriending me, he is playing reactively rather than proactively, and he isn't sharing his thoughts on other players other than stating if they are active or not. I'm not entirely convinced by cakepie's case on him though. H1 - Null: Haven't read that guy yet. I've more scum-reads than town-reads, and that's why I am not confident in placing my vote today. On December 08 2016 11:00 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 10:49 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 08 2016 07:55 ExO_ wrote:On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote:
I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios.
I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.
Ray looks sketchy to me.
TW looks Town. Just to expand on my previous point, I didn't mean that scum would only post in best case scenarios, but instead that they might mistakenly ignore a very obvious scenario that town wouldn't. The one scenario that was almost ignored was a blue getting killed N0. If they were town, they could have genuinely believed that if a blue died, we don't have to do anything differently, but if they were mafia, maybe they weren't planning to blue snipe so they ignored it. But the bigger thing they left out was the scenario that mafia fakeclaims, in which case there are no confirmed town or redchecks on D1. There's a fairly good chunk of math in this scenario which they shouldn't have ignored. Unless of course they knew that mafia wasn't going to fakeclaim, and look where we are now. So just to summarize, these are my suspicions:
- TW and NU post math assuming that blue roles don't die - Koshi was killed, who I don't think was a blue snipe
- TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming
So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence. This is what I have a problem with @cakepie. TW and NU post math that assume blue roles don't die. But that's not scummy in the slightest. Scum have absolutely 0 way of knowing if they are going to catch a blue or a VT. They mapped out scenarios in which blues don't die on N0 and then blues did die on N0. The scenario didn't happen exactly as they assumed. The lack of fake claiming at this point doesn't mean much. It will happen eventually but just because it hadn't happened (and especially when CR posted) doesn't mean it won't happen. Using all of that reasoning to imply that TW and NU are scum is complete bullshit imo. And the cherry on top is he back pedals with "but its possible they were just casually speaking whatever was on the top of their mind" Summed up "Yeah I wanna imply that you guys are scum with really bad reasoning, but not commit to it." Looks sketchy and very possible scum-filler type of post. I don't think you represented my case fairly. I want to know what you think of TW and NU. When you read over their 'game math' posts, does it read to you like town who are actively trying to win the game? Why didn't you push them for it? They were not 'game math' posts as you put it. We were arguing why cop/medic should claim USING 'math' to demonstrate it. Also, you're hardly pushing either of us. You shared your thoughts on me and TW discussing game mechanics, but other than asking us why we town-leaned each other, you never engaged in a conversation with either of us to push us. That, and your whole contribution this game is about me and TW. So. What is your take on ExO and cakepie?
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And like you, I had no success in engaging in a conversation with Ray. His response to my asking what his reads on you and exo were was:On December 08 2016 11:17 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 11:00 NeverUnlucky wrote:On December 08 2016 10:49 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 08 2016 07:55 ExO_ wrote:On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote:
I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios.
I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.
Ray looks sketchy to me.
TW looks Town. Just to expand on my previous point, I didn't mean that scum would only post in best case scenarios, but instead that they might mistakenly ignore a very obvious scenario that town wouldn't. The one scenario that was almost ignored was a blue getting killed N0. If they were town, they could have genuinely believed that if a blue died, we don't have to do anything differently, but if they were mafia, maybe they weren't planning to blue snipe so they ignored it. But the bigger thing they left out was the scenario that mafia fakeclaims, in which case there are no confirmed town or redchecks on D1. There's a fairly good chunk of math in this scenario which they shouldn't have ignored. Unless of course they knew that mafia wasn't going to fakeclaim, and look where we are now. So just to summarize, these are my suspicions:
- TW and NU post math assuming that blue roles don't die - Koshi was killed, who I don't think was a blue snipe
- TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming
So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence. This is what I have a problem with @cakepie. TW and NU post math that assume blue roles don't die. But that's not scummy in the slightest. Scum have absolutely 0 way of knowing if they are going to catch a blue or a VT. They mapped out scenarios in which blues don't die on N0 and then blues did die on N0. The scenario didn't happen exactly as they assumed. The lack of fake claiming at this point doesn't mean much. It will happen eventually but just because it hadn't happened (and especially when CR posted) doesn't mean it won't happen. Using all of that reasoning to imply that TW and NU are scum is complete bullshit imo. And the cherry on top is he back pedals with "but its possible they were just casually speaking whatever was on the top of their mind" Summed up "Yeah I wanna imply that you guys are scum with really bad reasoning, but not commit to it." Looks sketchy and very possible scum-filler type of post. I don't think you represented my case fairly. I want to know what you think of TW and NU. When you read over their 'game math' posts, does it read to you like town who are actively trying to win the game? Why didn't you push them for it? They were not 'game math' posts as you put it. We were arguing why cop/medic should claim USING 'math' to demonstrate it. Also, you're hardly pushing either of us. You shared your thoughts on me and TW discussing game mechanics, but other than asking us why we town-leaned each other, you never engaged in a conversation with either of us to push us. That, and your whole contribution this game is about me and TW. So. What is your take on ExO and cakepie? If you and TW are interested in using math to demonstrate whether or not cop should claim, why the sudden lack of interest today? Exo made a strong push in favor of cop claiming. TW made a short mention that cop should only claim if he checks red. You haven't mentioned anything at all. I would expect that TW should be fighting hard against Exo and you to have some sort of opinion as well. You two were so passionate yesterday but you don't seem to care today.
where he completely disregarded my question and my point on him not pushing us.
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On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote:
I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.
@Exo, I still would like an explanation for the bolded
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I went over H1's filter.
He has two posts of substance being 124 and 126.
124: + Show Spoiler +On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 03:46 cakepie wrote:
Like wtf H1, at least try. Maybe we've exhausted the available material on TW, but tell me something about NU or ExO or CRay. ExO has maintained that the cop should claim. I dont particularly agree, I'd rather tempt fate on a no-lynch and have the cop end-of-night phase post their N0 check, with the possibility of getting a N1 check as well. Besides that, ExO is doing a poor job of actually reading the thread, and I'm not sure where that falls on the scummy/stupid scale so I dont want to pursue a lynch there.
I like CR's posts, his suspicions, questions, justifications for everything are well reasoned and show appropriate suspicion.
I do not like NU's overly defensive tone following the daypost when CR accused TW/NU of hiding behind poorly reasoned math. + Show Spoiler [#86] +On December 07 2016 10:01 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote:
I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe. I find it opportunistic that you call me and tw out on our lack of assumptions now that the medic was shanked rather than when we were actually discussing it ie I doubt that you would be reproaching us this if it was a VT that flipped today. Also, I dislike that you are entering the day with two targets you'd like to see lynched, especially since pretty much nothing happened N0, so I don't understand how you're ready to see myself or tw lynched already. Also, I don't think your justification to scum-read either of us is worthy of calling us lynch targets. Especially the 2nd paragraph in the above spoiler, it reads to me as less about NU being one of the targets and more about CR having more than one target, when they're being accused with same reasoning. Why would CR be inclined to single someone out in this scenario? To me, there's no reason for it and NU's post comes off as contrived to me.
As you said, most of the TW material has been covered so I'll skip over it. Also, I think you're town. My vote preferences are: 1-No-Lynch 2-TW 3-NU 4-ExO 5-CR 6-cake 7-me
-His ExO read is wishy-washy.
-I disagree with his CR read, but at least he is consistent with it in 126 + Show Spoiler +On December 08 2016 04:41 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 04:26 cakepie wrote:You've given me some insight into something that was of interest to me. Thanks.
On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote:
I like CR's posts, his suspicions, questions, justifications for everything are well reasoned and show appropriate suspicion. But would you agree that it doesn't quite pass muster for both scum NU+TW to come out and try to dictate plan to town?
On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote:
ExO is doing a poor job of actually reading the thread Is this for #107 + #110 or is there something else that makes you say this? Re: CR - I wouldn't dismiss the notion out of hand, but its not high on my gutcheck rating. Being able to come out on blue-planning is a really safe way for mafia to seem invested without actually doing anything. That is only compounded by the fact that our doc got shot first, rendering a huge portion of N0 reasoning useless for the purposes of planning. CR is at least trying to use those posts to get reads. Re: ExO - There are those two posts, and then there is him somehow thinking there are 50+ pages [ #96. #97]. That might have been sarcasm? I'm not seeing a motive for him to do this as either faction other than straight up carelessness, its more of an annoyance than a scumread atm.
-His paragraph on me states that my tone is defensive, but when I read the post he quoted, I have the opposite impression of the post. It reads as aggressive as I'm the one who's attacking CR. He even acknowledges that in his following paragraph, so I think he's being inconsistent here.
Also, clarification @hopeless: I was not calling out Ray for having more than one target; I was calling him out for ENTERING the day with targets in mind ie it feels fabricated to start a day with an idea of who to push.
-Lazy sheeping of cake's tw read.
My take: Null? I disagree with him on points, and he seems lazy on some other points, but I can't find anything objectively scummy in his filter.
Hopeless: What is your updated read on CR, myself and Exo?
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On December 09 2016 02:45 Tumblewood wrote:
hm I'm trying to get out of the town tunnel mindset on NU so I'm trying to make a scum case on him but I actually have no dirt (besides my personal vendetta on the word opportunistic). is anyone scumreading him? I want some perspective here.
xD
If it helps you, here's my filter from last game. I was scum and lynched D1 (This was 8 days ago).
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I find 5th bullet point to be compelling. It struck me as strange when I read it.
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I see what you mean. On the flip side, you had to ask him for his opinion on me/exo/ray for him to provide it which reinforces my point of him being lazy or even reactive rather than proactive.
I honestly don't think much of the talk of "spite vote" if it even is one. Reading the previous sentence leading to this statement ("you're taking one persons meta and applying it to another person. Thats fucking ludicrous"), he might've been pissed at TW (though I don't see why, TW's post was not a "piss-off" imo). Dunno.
TW, update on your scum-filter-dive of me? 
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On December 09 2016 03:15 cakepie wrote:
Did H1 just vote and bugger off? Meh.
Yes.
Also, I noticed that in his last post he wrote: "My previous list stands"
I find it hard to believe that his stance on CRay, ExO and me haven't changed since, especially since I think that his reads weren't strong at the time.
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Sorry for going MIA for 24h, I was cuahgt up in my finals yesterday. I should be much more active during the weekend 
For now, I've an essay to write that is due in 4 hours (same time as EoN), so if I can't make an appearance before EoN, this is my order of lynching in case I get killed:
Ray
TW
ExO
H1
cakepie
I'll expand on that if I get the chance to.
Meanwhile, I'd like these questions answered:
@Ray -- Why do you think cakepie, H1, and ExO are town?
@H1 -- What was that vote?
@ExO -- Would you have voted/hammered TW if you were there at EoD?
@TW -- fyi, I don't think your different treatment of me was an attempt at buddying anymore.But why did you 'defend' me against Ray? What were your motivations to do so?
@cakepie -- What is your stance on Chairman Ray now? I have not seen your read of him evolve since the beginning of day 1.
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On December 10 2016 07:10 cakepie wrote:
Hmmm.
What are your checks?
Which of me/Ray do you have a green on? I'm guessing Ray because you don't want me to go after him?
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And why was h1 killed over me or you?
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On December 10 2016 07:12 NeverUnlucky wrote:What are your checks? Which of me/Ray do you have a green on? I'm guessing Ray because you don't want me to go after him?
???
Don't make me go through your filter seeking for your checks pleeeease. zzz
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Meh, can't really do anything productive if I don't know who's confirmed. I'm not going to sink an hour filter-diving someone who's potentially confirmed or putting time into figuring who could be scum if I'm the PoE aka that fmpov the two others are scum.
(^ This is assuming that either cakepie's N0 or N1 check was H1 as his entry in the day re: "Hmmm." does not suggest that he has 2 greenchecks aka a 100% win or a red-check)
So I'll be back later.
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WHAT THE FUCK? I literally said in my FIRST POST that VT's should never claim blue so if ever one of cakepie/TW is VT they fucked up and I'm lynching them for not being able to listen to the simplest instructions of all time. Like seriously it is SUPER anti-town to fake-claim cop as town to fake a red-check or w/e because we have no margin of error and it's just as easy for scum then it is for town to rescind a fake-claim and it should never be done.
One of cakepie/TW is scum, and I'm leaning towards TW right now.
TW, can you please show me your crumbs?
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Dude, there is NO WAY you are cop looking through your filter. You've been scum-reading H1 throughout the whole fucking game and have said that blue roles are boring and not the way to win this game. There is NO WAY you are cop.
On December 06 2016 15:56 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 14:22 cakepie wrote:if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1. 45% raw odds of fulfilling prerequisites for the plan, awesome! we can confirm up to five players as town sweet, even if no redchecks, we can find all five town by D3, which PoE the other two for confscum! good job! such plan much wow any NA still ard or am I stuck waiting for EU to wake up? pls it's 25/42 odds (so about 59%?) of prerequisites. anyway even if the odds slightly favor us I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring
On December 08 2016 12:19 Tumblewood wrote:
also funny th\t 1der's list of who to lynch is the reverse of mine, perfectly (except no lynch is still at the top ofc)
On December 08 2016 15:29 Tumblewood wrote:
idk I've only been around for a year but players who haven't played in a long time seem to be more anal than most. cakepie could be town but if so he's town that's really pissing me off. 1der too. if I had to guess it's between cakepie, 1der and ray because none of them have made me lean town at any point.
On December 09 2016 07:19 Tumblewood wrote:
tonight I will have a lot of time, which I will use to post extensive/organized reads (actually I have about 45 minutes to answer questions now).
given that I had two votes and no one hammered, we can eliminate the following scum teams:
ExO + NU
ExO + 1der
1der + NU
all other teams (there are 15 possible) would either need an extra town vote to hammer or include me. I strongly believe that both members of the scum team fall within cakepie, ray, and 1der.
On December 09 2016 09:22 Tumblewood wrote:The case on Hopeless1derPreambleI plan on writing posts like this for each player still alive besides myself, going in order the filters are listed. This isn't necessarily an indictment but an analysis of each player and a reasoned guess to their alignment, trying to start from square one and not cloud my judgement with previous bias. I will not go through every post, but I will use quotes liberally. The case for- In this post, near the start, 1der is incredulous (and clarifies -- it's like the mafia equivalent of a double-take) in a way that mafia rarely are.
- This post + Show Spoiler [quoted] +
On December 09 2016 04:35 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 04:33 Tumblewood wrote:ray, accusing someone of distancing is not an argument for them being scum. also, being concerned with one's perception is a pretty weak tell, because both town and scum do it + Show Spoiler +turns out no one likes being lynched and because the line between "a regular amount" and "too much" is incredibly subjective Pick one and proceed.
- The threat 1der makes + Show Spoiler [near deadline] +
On December 09 2016 04:47 Hopeless1der wrote:
a little over 2 hours left today..TW if I dont get an answer in the next hour I'm voting you.
The case against- N0 he made one post and left. The post + Show Spoiler [in question] +
On December 07 2016 00:21 Hopeless1der wrote:
Why are there suggestions for the cop to claim during D1? Why not end of N1 when theres a chance at 2 checks?
- Next day he initiated wanting to lynch me, but he didn't present any reasons of his own; he sheeped cakepie + Show Spoiler +
On December 08 2016 03:27 Hopeless1der wrote:
cakepie is it okay if I just sheep you today?
- 1der puts full trust into cakepie as town without ever discussing why (this is the first comment on cakepie's alignment: + Show Spoiler [but only barely] +
On December 09 2016 04:12 Hopeless1der wrote:but really, thank you for putting in the work for town cakepie
- 1der asks me to pick between two non-contradictory statements I made + Show Spoiler [right here] +
On December 09 2016 04:35 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 04:33 Tumblewood wrote:ray, accusing someone of distancing is not an argument for them being scum. also, being concerned with one's perception is a pretty weak tell, because both town and scum do it + Show Spoiler +turns out no one likes being lynched and because the line between "a regular amount" and "too much" is incredibly subjective Pick one and proceed.
VerdictProbable scum. There are reasons to believe 1der is not scum, but his game is so focused on getting me lynched (especially given his shortage of original reasons) that it is hard to see him as town.
There is 0 crumbs suggesting you checked H1, this is a fake-claim. Also, why wouldn't you have claimed cop when you had 2 votes and the pressure of a third if you were cop?
##Vote: tumblewood
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.giphy.com/27EhcDHnlkw1O.gif)
