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Vote Count
Foreman (4) : NeverUnlucky, Calix, Tictock, darthfoley
Rels (0) : Calix (X)
Skynx (0) : darthfoley (X)
Not voting (3) : Foreman, Rels, Skynx
Currently, Foreman is set to be lynched!
The day phase will end at Monday, Nov 07 5:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00), about 24 hours from this post.
remain as you are reading this.
Remember, voting is mandatory! Place your votes in this thread.
If you see any vote out of place, holler at us and we will look into it.
Reminder: Daylight Saving Time The deadline is in UTC/GMT, which does not account for daylight saving time. The game will keep ticking at 48+24 hour cycles. If you are in a timezone where daylight saving time has just ended TODAY, Sun 6 Nov, the transition back to standard time will have moved the deadline by one hour on your local clock. Pay close attention!
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Vote Count
Foreman (4) : NeverUnlucky, Calix, Tictock, darthfoley
Skynx (1) : darthfoley (X), Rels
Rels (0) : Calix (X)
Not voting (2) : Foreman, Skynx
Currently, Foreman is set to be lynched!
The day phase will end at Monday, Nov 07 5:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00), about 12 hours from this post.
remain as you are reading this.
Remember, voting is mandatory! Place your votes in this thread.
If you see any vote out of place, scream your head off.
Reminder: Daylight Saving Time The deadline is in UTC/GMT, which does not account for daylight saving time. The game will keep ticking at 48+24 hour cycles. If you are in a timezone where daylight saving time has just ended Sun 6 Nov, the transition back to standard time will have moved the deadline by one hour on your local clock. Pay close attention!
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All personal attacks to are cease beyond this point.
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Vote Count
Foreman (3) : NeverUnlucky, Calix (X), Tictock, darthfoley
Skynx (2) : darthfoley (X), Rels, Calix
Rels (0) : Calix (X)
Not voting (2) : Foreman, Skynx
Currently, Foreman is set to be lynched!
The day phase will end at Monday, Nov 07 5:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00), about 3 hours from this post.
remain as you are reading this.
Remember, voting is mandatory! Place your votes in this thread.
If you see any vote out of place, let us know.
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Demetori 信仰は儚き人間の為に ～ Jehovah's YaHVeH / Il mondo dove e finito il tempo [comiket73]
Original: 信仰は儚き人間の為に / 東方風神録 ～ Mountain of Faith / Stage 5 boss theme
Volume warning @ 0:35!
Skynx, the Aki Shizuha, mafia goon, has been lynched!
+ Show Spoiler [Role PM] +![[image loading]](http://i.imgsafe.org/61820aa511.png) You are Aki Shizuha, a mafia goon! <secret-flavor-text> Every night, the mafia team may choose to send one of their members to kill a player. You may communicate with other members of your mafia team outside of the game thread at any time. A quicktopic has been provided for your team: <insert link>. You win with the mafia. The mafia team is: <insert names>.
Foreman, the Aki Minoriko, mafia goon, has been modkilled!
+ Show Spoiler [Role PM] +![[image loading]](http://i.imgsafe.org/61825c02f1.png) You are Aki Minoriko, a mafia goon! <secret-flavor-text> Every night, the mafia team may choose to send one of their members to kill a player. You may communicate with other members of your mafia team outside of the game thread at any time. A quicktopic has been provided for your team: <insert link>. You win with the mafia. The mafia team is: <insert names>
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Hot Cocoa Remedial Actions
NU must post an apology to Skynx
Rels + ExO_ are to apologize to one another
No calling people bad in the postgame on pain of cakepie being super duper cross
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～ Okuu's Yellowcake Award ～![[image loading]](http://i.imgsafe.org/0c65a91343.png) Caution! Caution! Caution!Art credit: pixiv #34968647
The scumteam was independently guessed correctly by:
Shapelog
via PM, 2 hours 30 minutes into the game
&
Disformation
in Obs QT, 4 hours 15 minutes into the game
Congrats!
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Postgame Notes
Sorry for the delay. Had to go to bed after wrapping things up last night; been a long day today.
Some stuff in here rehashes things you've probably already read in Obs.
Thanks- Thanks to btdt for cohosting. I guess our timings ended up overlapping a lot -- but don't worry about it, I do appreciate having backup, it's important in case of contingencies.
- Thanks to coaches Artanis, Shapelog, Half the Sky & Holyflare for volunteering their time to mentor.
- Shoutouts to ptmc for being press-ganged into standing by as replacement, and Acrofales for being standby coach.
- Thanks to players for participating.
Behavior / Toxicity
Mafia is a game that players can get very invested in, and get emotional about. It can also get pretty heated at times. Different hosts may differ slightly in terms of what they are willing to tolerate, but in general our goal is to have a community where we can (within certain limits) argue with one another within the bounds of the game, and then GG and be pals outside of the game.
My personal rules are best summarized as:- Heat-of-the-moment anger -- within the context of an intense moment in the game, i.e. EoD1, I'm usually willing to overlook an isolated outburst or brief heated exchange as long as it doesn't devolve into a protracted fight or recur later in the game. I believe we can all be mature and understanding enough that once taken out of the high-pressure situation, people will apologize, forgive and make good. If it develops into a personal vendetta, however, expect mod action.
- Attacking the substance of a player's play -- logic, reasoning, playstyle -- is fine. Direct personal attacks are not.
Ad hominem is poor form, enough said.
OGI
I added the MafiaMetric experiment at the last minute and forgot to explicitly put in a rule against mentioning it within the game. I apologize for this omission, which opened up the opportunity for OGI.
I also had to make an announcement regarding relaxing the schedule for submitting reads. This was in fact due to me changing my mind for technical reasons and unrelated to any reads submitted before that point. I tried to make this announcement as NAI as possible without confirming nor denying the townslip by NeverUnlucky, but failed -- it remained open to interpretation that the change was triggered by an off-schedule read submission by him.
I'm sorry that the experiment was allowed to interfere with the game, I should have planned it more carefully rather than unleash it in the flash of inspiration.
I realize that this isn't the first time that NeverUnlucky has pulled something like this, but I would like to believe that it is not out of malicious intent, but over-eagerness to establish/confirm his town alignment, and ultimately, a drive to win the game. I have made very clear by PM to him that neither "establish yourself as town" nor "play to win" includes the use gamebreaking means. He has also already apologized to me by PM earlier today for the OGI and other matters.
Due to my own hosting error involvement, I will not seek to penalize NeverUnlucky for this, but will make a side note of it in the banlist submission for this game.
Banlist actions
See here.
MafiaMetric: graphs in a few days when I have more time to work on them.
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Read Scoring
The score is an indicator of the accuracy of a submitted read and is measured as an error in terms of number of pairwise (mis)ordered players. The lower the number, the more accurate the read.
Each read submitted is evaluated by checking every possible pair of town+scum players. If the scum player is rated scummier than the town player, there is no penalty; if the order is reversed, there is a penalty of 1. If the two players are indistinguishable (same line) then the penalty is 0.5.
For an external observer with no extra information at the start of the game, there are 2x7=14 possible pairs to evaluate. On D2 there were 2x5=10 pairs. Divide the number of mismatches by the number of possible pairs to obtain a normalized value between zero and one.
A score of zero means that the read was perfectly correct, and a score of one means that it is completely wrong.
A random guesser will on average obtain a score of 0.5. A true null read that doesn't distinguish between any players (all names on one line) also scores 0.5.
disformation
Since disformation was such a obs champion, he gets his own scatter plot.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgsafe.org/6842caeeba.png)
everybody
This is how read quality changed throughout the game.
This chart rates players/coaches on the same scale as obs, which is actually unfair (Players are confirmed town to themselves, so that's a couple of pairs that they're guaranteed to get correct for free. Obs do not have this information).
![[image loading]](http://i.imgsafe.org/6842d69bef.png)
players only
This chart has just the players, and does not count the pairs involving the player themselves.
The error scores are thus slightly higher than the previous chart.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgsafe.org/6842d24273.png)
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Scum Performance
Scum wants to avoid being lynched, and to do that, they need to avoid being scumread.
For each scum player, on each submitted read, we count the number of players that were considered scummier than them (again, indistinguishable counts as 0.5). This is normalized against the number of players alive.
A score of 0 means that the player was rated as the sole bottom scum, below everyone else in a submitted read.
A score of 1 means that the player was rated as sole top town, above everyone else.
Notes
This one is a bit wonky because the normalization is based on a total ordering -- i.e. every player on their own line -- but to be fair that's probably too much to ask for. The effect of reading some players as tied/indistinguishable are:
- If a few players are rated as tied for top town, they will score somewhat less than 1.
- If a couple of players are tied for bottom scum, they will score a bit more than 0.
(Mathematically speaking, N tied players are all assigned the median value of a band N players wide rather than each occupying one spot.)
In any case, a low score in the bottom 1/4 to 1/3 of players is not a good place to be.
Skynx
Notably, Shapelog had him pegged as bottomscum all game long. Took a dive in late D1 into N1, especially for Calix
![[image loading]](http://i.imgsafe.org/68e4253cfe.png)
Foreman
![[image loading]](http://i.imgsafe.org/68e42be386.png)
Overall
Looked okay at midday D1, but tended to be polarizing figures rather than blending into the middle of the pack. Stock tanked when town circle formed early D2.
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Town Performance
The same charts as for scum players, but now for town players. In general higher = better.
The premise for this one is a little bit shakier, since this will depend on role and playstyle. Some players will gladly be strong toptown and die to scum N1, while others (and TPR) will want to survive for a bit in the middle of the pack.
Calix
disformation going tinfoil is very evident in this one, just look at those wild jumps! Otherwise pretty solidly upper half.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgsafe.org/696b0e097a.png)
darthfoley
Data a bit sparse but looks like could have been an alternative wagon D1.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgsafe.org/69717b67e7.png)
ExO_
Data sparse/incomplete but definitely a difficult hole to climb out of EoD1-- widely read as bottom 2 during second half of D1.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgsafe.org/697295ec75.png)
mahrgell
Sought death N1, succeeded in being the medic dodge.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgsafe.org/69962c86d6.png)
NeverUnlucky
Seems like might have lost a few points for EoD1?
![[image loading]](http://i.imgsafe.org/699fd893f2.png)
Rels
Chaotic.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgsafe.org/69a0fc2dc0.png)
Tictock
Inscrutable D1 into join town circle D2.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgsafe.org/6a24c58df3.png)
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Thoughts
- Short game, we didn't get to see longer progressions so limited conclusions.
- Data was variously too dense (disformation!!) or too sparse. Drop off in submissions D2. Guideline of approx 8~12hr reporting interval might be ideal, with additional submissions for sudden/snap read changes.
- Lacked submissions from some players, needs more buy-in from players to work better / more complete analysis.
- Denser data is noisier? Or maybe it's just tinfoil!disfo? Not sure.
- May be too much effort / distraction to submit reads, time consuming enough to just play, let alone do extra on the side.
- Needs strict no-mention rules; even then, not sure if affects player behavior by making them more likely to revisit/reassess player ordering.
Feedback sought
- What do you think is a good interval to report/submit at? How to strike a balance between minimizing player effort to submit reads vs getting useful output at the end?
- Did you feel that it changed the way you played / processed your reads? E.g. did it force you to think about players that you would have otherwise set aside for the time being, etc.
- Does this look like it might be useful, meaningful, or even just interesting fun? Would you do it again? Would you encourage others to participate?
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EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgsafe.org/0b7565a8d2.png)
![[image loading]](http://s7.postimg.org/l0xvweikb/mssi.png)
