[T] Dota 2 Mafia - Page 4

On October 21 2016 03:24 sicklucker wrote:
koshi will never role mafia when im town. so hes clear 100%

On October 22 2016 05:48 sicklucker wrote:
the thing going against koshi while I didnt read his posts is that hes roled mafia alot lately so if he got town I would expect him to be into it. so ya hes probably way better then ticktock ill vote him if I have too

On October 22 2016 05:57 sicklucker wrote:
koshi littteraly gives no fucks... I expect a fight

On October 22 2016 08:40 sicklucker wrote:


i mean ya his play is not out of his town range (EXCEPT HIM NOT EVEN TRYING AT DEADLINE WHEN HE WAS A WAGON)

The more I think on it. Hes just rolled mafia again and does not want to try. Its a double edged sword because I would also expect him to try when he has not rolled town in awile

On October 23 2016 13:26 sicklucker wrote:
well if koshi is scum hes doing everything a scum should do at the bottom of the barrel. trying to get votes/kp off him

On October 23 2016 13:33 sicklucker wrote:


a second lynch barely favors town tho. infact its completely null

On October 23 2016 13:45 sicklucker wrote:


??? no because we wont know if koshis double lynched didnt work because the target or mafia or if koshi was lying all along because him stalling is also the correct mafia play

On October 23 2016 13:47 sicklucker wrote:
like if koshi claims a double lynch and that double lynch does not go through we do not know the alignment of that said person you retard. Because koshi can do it both to save a team mate if he really has the ability or he could completely make up this ability to get kp and lynches off of him onto other towns.


im allowed to say retard because you called me a retard

On October 24 2016 03:39 sicklucker wrote:


its not that a double lynch wouldnt be pro town. its that we kind of have to trust you

On October 23 2016 08:24 sicklucker wrote:


well then if no one claims it I suggest we dont lynch you so I can check your claim. Like the bloodseeker in dota 2 I can only see your hp if its below a certain threshold tho

On October 23 2016 13:27 sicklucker wrote:
also i brought up my ability to detect his hp but when I did that he dropped. also makes no sense for scum to target him so hes scum

On October 23 2016 04:54 ritoky wrote:


1) because while other people think it is stupid and have told me so on multiple occasions and lynched me over it; i am a firm believer in the game philosophy that 1 moment in someone's filter can make them irrevocably town or mafia. i think this is especially the case with new players. many people lose sight of a moment of clarity over the course of 10 days as it gets muddled in shitwater; i try to hold on to those moments.

2) it's 100 pages, i don't remember who started trains that 15 people agree on, maybe it was you. but what you said about those trains i had read before from multiple people. so basically what i am saying is it didn't advance my opinion to a new understanding about the players you were scum reading, and didn't spark interest/awareness; it simply re-hashed whats already been said. it also lacked an a-ha or keen observation which would make me think "wow btdt is really looking at this game critically, damn sooooo town." so basically it didn't adjust my read on your scum reads or you.

i do like that you care about your reads though, that's more than many.

On October 24 2016 23:26 Koshi wrote:
I lost over 30hp bro. He can check me.

On October 25 2016 01:36 beentheredonethat wrote:
So, last 10 minutes for me before I'm off to Volleyball. Training ends at ~10.15/10.30pm so maybe I'll make it in time to deadline. Will be around shortly before or after 11pm.

I don't feel good at believing Koshi's claim. I want to explain my stance on this a bit more before I depart and I ask you guys to carefully consider if you are believing the claim or not.

Contra

1. It was an easy claim.
There is no way that a role would counterclaim what Koshi claimed. Given it's a themed game and we do not know which roles are in besides the flipped ones and our own roles, there is absolutely no problem for Koshi to fake claim a double lynch ability.

2. Day and Night 1
Day 1 and Night 1 Koshi was absolutely scummy. At no point he tried to solve the game. His replies under pressure were full of bragging, derailing, and not even close to a serious discussion that would even remotely imply he is town. He has been scumread all game and the reasons for that read are absolutely solid. Besides the claim, there absolutely no reason to not scumread Koshi. His "cases" he put up are salty, WIFOM and bad. There is absolutely no effort that could be interpreted as townie besides the claim.

3. Ability volatility
From what Koshi said, he has an ability to make two lynches flip within one day. First of all, reading my own abilities (which fully resolve around HP mechanics and in no way about anything else, yes, that's as close to a VT claim as it gets in this game) makes me feel really uncertain about that kind of ability being town-aligned.

Worst case: two town wagons flip.
Medium case: one scum, one town flips.
Best case: two scums flip.

I'm not good at math but given the likely scum to town distribution, I think the worst case is way more likely than the best case. This ability will become good in certain scenarios, agreed - but it is such a potential game changer that I don't think hosts will put this ability into the game. Although, if I'm really honest here, if that ability is indeed part of the game then it will most likely be a town ability as scum would be safe and sound to use that ability.

4. Koshi is not today's lynch
Which makes his rage hard to believe. Koshi should know he's not going to be the lynch today. He should know that we're all rather calm players that are willing to reconsider if we are given solid stuff to work with. He's however not even trying to go down the reasonable road, although I explicitely offered him the opportunity to do so by asking him to calm down, leave the thread, return with solid reads, analysis and simply more town behaviour. Keep in mind he still hasn't dropped a solid read list that we could work with if he flipped town at any point. There's literally nothing of value in Koshi's filter that we could work with if he flipped town. A worthless Lunatic push is the best he could do thus far.

Pro

1. Most likely, town ability
As written above, I do not think that hosts would put that ability in the hands of mafia. That would be really imbalanced, basically allowing mafia to mislynch two people at once. Given we all have attacks and are likely to kill each other that would be really, really tough to deal with.

2. Koshi's rage over the day
Although I talked about that at the contra section already, I think there's also the possibility that this is town rage and genuine.
Early Koshi felt lackluster, not really caring, and I thought this is highly indicative of his scum style of the previous 3 games of which 2 I hosted. In none of those games I have seen Koshi rage that hard when being under pressure. On the other hand, in none of these games was Koshi as much under pressure as he is right now.

Those are the cons and pros that I can come up with at this point.
For my judgement, this is not enough pro to believe the claim. This is why I would like you guys to only start a second wagon that was started by a more or less townread person. I would suggest taco bell hamazuro guy to be the second wagon. Yes, there's a chance he might be replaced or modkilled - but as ritoky said, we can't be sure of that. We should definitely go for the people that are not playing the game at all, as others already mentioned, and I think that guy is a good target.
Why not Lunatic or Skynx? Lunatic is the easy target. He's doing not much. But the thing is that Koshi has been pushing him a lot. So either it's bussing, starting from D1, or scum!Koshi trying to direct one more mislynch, or town!Koshi vs. whatever Lunatic, I don't care. Either way, we should re-evaluate Lunatic once Koshi has flipped. Koshi will flip (or not) depending on what's happening at this very deadline. This is why I wouldn't choose Lunatic for today's second wagon, although he's worth a lynch, vig shot, or simply stacked damage after all.

Skynx on the other hand is actually every now and again trying to play the game. I have him as a scumread but I really need to reevaluate his filter, I haven't done so yet, so a full day cycle is currently missing in my read of Skynx. Also, note how Koshi voted him, then switched to Lunatic.

(Also, look at Artanis, who was scumread by HF (confirmed town) and voted with Koshi on Skynx and on Lunatic, which can be coincidence, but it worries me. Talking more about Artanis: his thoughts over the day feel reasonable and I tend to actually like what he's writing. However his push on GlowingBear in the context of Lunatic, Skynx, and Vivax being the lynches today, it feels empty. Pressuring GB when town is on other persons with a single vote won't work. It's also very safe to go for GB as scum since GB is not playing the game, low hanging fruits and shit, easy target to appear pushy but stay under the radar).

Also, still, someone should evaluate NocturneMage's filter! There must be a reason why he was killed N1 shortly after having replaced in.

On October 25 2016 05:40 beentheredonethat wrote:
Did he even submit his action? He said he'd be afk. Koshi, you here?

On October 25 2016 05:44 GlowingBear wrote:
Wait, today is a double lynch?

On October 25 2016 17:49 Koshi wrote:

Well. I did not do 5 damage to you.
My basic damage is 7 btw, which I claimed before, of course this could be fake but come on... Does anybody has an attack that is 5? Or lower?

On October 25 2016 18:12 beentheredonethat wrote:

I have a basic attack of 4.
I have a powerful attack ability and I have attacked you three times now. I claimed that. I said I townread you because I wasn't roleblocked at all and I bought your rage.

Mafia wouldn't do a no-lynch if Koshi hadn't claimed his ability. That means Vivax and Lunatic are scum. Else it would make NO sense for scum to save Vivax as he will be lynched/shot anyways.

Either Vivax and Lunatic are scum and the no-lynch should make us kill Koshi OR Koshi is scum, Vivax/Luna alignment is not sure and Scum wasted a no-lynch to save what, an inactive Scum!Vivax?

I don't think so. To me, Luna and Vivax are as close to confirmed scum as it gets, and Koshi is as close to confirmed town as it gets.

Sicklucker's play doesn't make sense as scum IMHO.

We should attack the fuck out of Vivax and Luna and I really want town to coordinate attacks. I will attack Lunatic. Sicklucker, ptmc, WoS, please do so, too, with the maximum attack damage you have. Dandel, iamp, Acro, please attack Vivax. Artanis, you too. At this point, I am considering Ritoky to be scum. Not enough activity, and he's popping up every now and then to not fall into afk category, and his posts imply that he's actively reading the thread.

Winter Wyvern freezes an enemy in place while striking those nearby with a maddening curse which causes them to attack their frozen ally with increased attack speed. The frozen ally and those cursed to attack their ally are immune to all damage from their enemies.

On October 25 2016 07:07 iamperfection wrote:
I took 5 dmg

On October 25 2016 19:38 Acrofales wrote:

Exactly. Too many inconsistencies in Koshi's claims. Kill with fire.