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[W][M] Newbie Mafia XXI - Page 33

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NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
June 04 2016 17:00 GMT
#641
Vote Count: Day 1


QuickTwist (3): MoosyDoosy, Jealous, Skynx, Tictock
sqrtofneg1 (2): nnn_thekushmountains, QuickTwist
MoosyDoosy (2): Superbia, beentheredonethat
Superbia (0): QuickTwist

Not Voting (6): emperorchampion, sqrtofneg1, blkcoffee, Tumblewood, MoosyDoosy, Fecalfeast

Currently QuickTwist will be executed. Day 1 ends in on 23:00 GMT (+00:00).

The voting thread is here.
Only votes there will be counted.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-06-04 17:05:53
June 04 2016 17:01 GMT
#642
Vote Count: Day 1


QuickTwist (3): MoosyDoosy, Jealous, Skynx, TicTock
sqrtofneg1 (2): nnn_thekushmountains, QuickTwist,
MoosyDoosy (2): Superbia, Beentheredonethat
Superbia (0): QuickTwist

Not Voting (6): emperorchampion, sqrtofneg1, blkcoffee, Tumblewood, MoosyDoosy, Fecalfeast

Currently QuickTwist will be executed. Day 1 ends in on 23:00 GMT (+00:00).

The voting thread is here.
Only votes there will be counted.

"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
June 04 2016 17:01 GMT
#643
On June 05 2016 01:45 emperorchampion wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2016 01:33 Tictock wrote:
Ok I piddled around too long and am not going to be able to elaborate as much as I wanted to about my scum reads, but here is the short and sweet version.

QT - There is just too many inconsistencies in his play for me to overlook. He pushed Super early for "trying to look town" + Show Spoiler +
which is a terrible reason to scumread anyone, especially when that doesn't reall describe Super's play at all imo
and then scum reads me for basically doing the opposite + Show Spoiler +
not openly giving my reads
. His posts in general feel pretty disjointed and his thoughts sometimes backtrack or dissapear for no reason + Show Spoiler +
Sorry no time for examples
. Combined with some of the points other people have made about his flippant and largely unfounded reads and dismissve approach to questions... yea this guy is top of my lynch list.

Emperorchampion - I liked his open, but the rest of his posts fall flat and he quickly dropped the attitude he started with. The way he spent a lot of effort filterdiving QT + Show Spoiler +
filters so early in the game?
to come up with a townread on him, then made a townread on Tumble with much less effort and used Tumble's thoughts to conclude that Jealous is scum is really off.

Thats it for now, I may get a chance to post later tonight, but likely won't be around till tomorrow.

##Vote: QuickTwist


Filter diving, I like the term

To be honest, with regards to filter diving, I'm just not really sure the best way to play the game, so I'm trying things to see what works out.

this comes from a genuine townie who's trying. emperor is town.
good times for all
emperorchampion
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
Canada9496 Posts
June 04 2016 17:03 GMT
#644
On June 05 2016 01:53 Jealous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2016 01:45 emperorchampion wrote:
On June 05 2016 01:33 Tictock wrote:
Ok I piddled around too long and am not going to be able to elaborate as much as I wanted to about my scum reads, but here is the short and sweet version.

QT - There is just too many inconsistencies in his play for me to overlook. He pushed Super early for "trying to look town" + Show Spoiler +
which is a terrible reason to scumread anyone, especially when that doesn't reall describe Super's play at all imo
and then scum reads me for basically doing the opposite + Show Spoiler +
not openly giving my reads
. His posts in general feel pretty disjointed and his thoughts sometimes backtrack or dissapear for no reason + Show Spoiler +
Sorry no time for examples
. Combined with some of the points other people have made about his flippant and largely unfounded reads and dismissve approach to questions... yea this guy is top of my lynch list.

Emperorchampion - I liked his open, but the rest of his posts fall flat and he quickly dropped the attitude he started with. The way he spent a lot of effort filterdiving QT + Show Spoiler +
filters so early in the game?
to come up with a townread on him, then made a townread on Tumble with much less effort and used Tumble's thoughts to conclude that Jealous is scum is really off.

Thats it for now, I may get a chance to post later tonight, but likely won't be around till tomorrow.

##Vote: QuickTwist


Filter diving, I like the term

To be honest, with regards to filter diving, I'm just not really sure the best way to play the game, so I'm trying things to see what works out.

I'm enjoying your posts


Merci!

Anyhow, I'm out for a bit, we'll see how things shake out in a bit.
TRUEESPORTS || your days as a respected member of team liquid are over
beentheredonethat
Profile Joined May 2016
2934 Posts
June 04 2016 17:08 GMT
#645
On June 04 2016 19:53 Jealous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 04 2016 19:09 beentheredonethat wrote:
Also, following up on Tumblewood's post about QT and Jealous: if I simply follow the reads that I did so far without looking at Jealous' filter (which I haven't done yet), my logical conclusion should be that Jealous is scum. Here is my thought process about that:

1. I townread Tumblewood.
2. Tumblewood thinks that between QT and Jealous, one is scum.
3. I townread QT.

That makes Jealous scum (only if Tumblewood's thought is correct which, of course, is not granted). I am going to look at Jealous more detailed.

I'm not going to argue with what you've already admitted is highly conditional reasoning, but if your faith in Tumblewood is so great then you should check this post:

Show nested quote +
On June 04 2016 16:18 Tumblewood wrote:
ok yeah as I see it one of QT and Jealous has to be scum. they're both acting independently scummy (eager to read anything as scummy, tryhard tone, making mountains of molehills). I don't believe that they could both be town, although if they were I will mock D1 relentlessly in postgame. I also believe that they could not keep up this stupid bickering for so long as partners. I'm leaning toward QT at this point for refuting everything Jealous says and then townreading him for it (pretty shallow townread IMO, there's more to the game than just how much you write that's semi-productive). Jealous maybe, but I think my dislike of his tone biases my judgment. 6/10 would lynch QT D1 and if he flips town lynch Jealous D2
or we could plynch sqrt and let their alignments become more apparent over time.


In here he says that his suspicion lies on QuickTwist, which somewhat debunks your line of reasoning because your townreads would be only 50% accurate.

That plus your EBWOP is a great pick and shows exactly the problem I have with that scumread. My read is a bit too weak to justify a vote.

Well, so according to thekushmountains, MoosyDoosy "always plays like this" if town? Can anyone point me to some games that he played or at least confirm what thekushmountains said? Although, I'm not buying into it yet: while meta reads can be very potent, they are always a bit fragile since it's easily possible to "play for his own meta" to appear as the opposite alignment. Reading MoosyDoosy, no offense, feels like listening to the unordered thoughts of a child: open to distractions, not focusing on anything, whatever. From my experience, players that have such a playstyle mainly want to stay unreadable and are very unstable in terms of activity levels.

Well long story short, if MoosyDoosy is currently indeed playing to his town meta, it renders my arguments obsolete.

Going full circle, back to Jealous:

On June 04 2016 08:25 Jealous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 04 2016 08:21 Superbia wrote:
Jealous what alignment did you hope to get?

My expectations were mixed in that I simultaneously did not want to be important because I would then be under a lot of pressure to perform my duties up to a certain standard, but I also did want to have some sway in the outcome of the game beyond just words and analysis. I am satisfied with my role.

How about you?

This is a very good question from Superbia which solidifies my town read on him even further. However Jealous' answer feels really scummy to me, so I want to point that out.

IMHO, the purpose of this question is to be able to get a tone read on the questioned person. If the person admits that he's disappointed in his role or alignment, that information can be used to further analyse the posts that happened until now. So, imagine you're scum, and you're being asked that question. You don't know if there is a "right" (town indicative) or "wrong" answer, do you? Well, I don't. So you cannot answer that question clearly.

Jealous is not answering that question clearly. If I would have been asked that question, I'd have answered "scum" (or, tbh, "neutral"), because I prefer being the one being searched for instead of reading carefully through stuff and identifying/guessing inconsistencies, blatant lies, and busses. The only intention behind Jealous' answer could be to hide that he's actually glad that he rolled scum and that this is the reason of his high activity level.

Jealous, can you answer Superbia's question more clearly? What is your stance on Tictock and QuickTwist (there's a specific reason why I ask for this read which I'll tell after the answer)?
"Micro tricks like marine splitting, blink stalker micro, and ling/baneling wars were the apex of the game’s achievements; nothing in the world takes your breath away like watching a pro player split marines like a god."
Skynx
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
Turkey7150 Posts
June 04 2016 17:11 GMT
#646
On June 05 2016 01:51 blkcoffee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2016 01:29 Skynx wrote:
On June 05 2016 01:18 blkcoffee wrote:
On June 05 2016 01:08 Skynx wrote:
I'm back early
On June 05 2016 00:34 blkcoffee wrote:
I read Jesus and at as two townies refusing to back down. I don't see much more to it .

Skynx and tumblewood both seem convinced that there has to be mafia in those two. Although skynx is sure it's qt.

I'm not convinced by either of the arguments and the case on qt by skynx seems to paint every qt action as scummy which I don't think is the correct approach.


If you read carefully, I've just called his posting pattern useless. He's not making any sensible pushes and his reads don't have any basis. Be he mafia or no, keeping him around does not benefit town.


So what exactly is your read. If he flipped what would he be in your opinion?

Depends on what happens next 24h before lynch. If he flips scum we can make cases on other peoples reaction on him. If he flips town what a shame we will have less spam for rest of the game.


Sorry I wasn't clear. Right now what is your read on qt? I'm not really too bothered on your read of him after he flips.

I'm not sure what you're trying to do here. He is scum from the way I read his posts.
"When seagulls follow the troller, it is because they think sardines will be thrown into the sea. Thank you very much" - King Cantona | STX 4 eva
sqrtofneg1
Profile Blog Joined November 2013
Canada1159 Posts
June 04 2016 17:11 GMT
#647
Something came up.
Sorry.
/replace
Imaginary
Skynx
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
Turkey7150 Posts
June 04 2016 17:12 GMT
#648
Or he is a very very bad town.
"When seagulls follow the troller, it is because they think sardines will be thrown into the sea. Thank you very much" - King Cantona | STX 4 eva
Jealous
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
10156 Posts
June 04 2016 17:18 GMT
#649
On June 05 2016 02:08 beentheredonethat wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 04 2016 19:53 Jealous wrote:
On June 04 2016 19:09 beentheredonethat wrote:
Also, following up on Tumblewood's post about QT and Jealous: if I simply follow the reads that I did so far without looking at Jealous' filter (which I haven't done yet), my logical conclusion should be that Jealous is scum. Here is my thought process about that:

1. I townread Tumblewood.
2. Tumblewood thinks that between QT and Jealous, one is scum.
3. I townread QT.

That makes Jealous scum (only if Tumblewood's thought is correct which, of course, is not granted). I am going to look at Jealous more detailed.

I'm not going to argue with what you've already admitted is highly conditional reasoning, but if your faith in Tumblewood is so great then you should check this post:

On June 04 2016 16:18 Tumblewood wrote:
ok yeah as I see it one of QT and Jealous has to be scum. they're both acting independently scummy (eager to read anything as scummy, tryhard tone, making mountains of molehills). I don't believe that they could both be town, although if they were I will mock D1 relentlessly in postgame. I also believe that they could not keep up this stupid bickering for so long as partners. I'm leaning toward QT at this point for refuting everything Jealous says and then townreading him for it (pretty shallow townread IMO, there's more to the game than just how much you write that's semi-productive). Jealous maybe, but I think my dislike of his tone biases my judgment. 6/10 would lynch QT D1 and if he flips town lynch Jealous D2
or we could plynch sqrt and let their alignments become more apparent over time.


In here he says that his suspicion lies on QuickTwist, which somewhat debunks your line of reasoning because your townreads would be only 50% accurate.

That plus your EBWOP is a great pick and shows exactly the problem I have with that scumread. My read is a bit too weak to justify a vote.

Well, so according to thekushmountains, MoosyDoosy "always plays like this" if town? Can anyone point me to some games that he played or at least confirm what thekushmountains said? Although, I'm not buying into it yet: while meta reads can be very potent, they are always a bit fragile since it's easily possible to "play for his own meta" to appear as the opposite alignment. Reading MoosyDoosy, no offense, feels like listening to the unordered thoughts of a child: open to distractions, not focusing on anything, whatever. From my experience, players that have such a playstyle mainly want to stay unreadable and are very unstable in terms of activity levels.

Well long story short, if MoosyDoosy is currently indeed playing to his town meta, it renders my arguments obsolete.

Going full circle, back to Jealous:

Show nested quote +
On June 04 2016 08:25 Jealous wrote:
On June 04 2016 08:21 Superbia wrote:
Jealous what alignment did you hope to get?

My expectations were mixed in that I simultaneously did not want to be important because I would then be under a lot of pressure to perform my duties up to a certain standard, but I also did want to have some sway in the outcome of the game beyond just words and analysis. I am satisfied with my role.

How about you?

This is a very good question from Superbia which solidifies my town read on him even further. However Jealous' answer feels really scummy to me, so I want to point that out.

IMHO, the purpose of this question is to be able to get a tone read on the questioned person. If the person admits that he's disappointed in his role or alignment, that information can be used to further analyse the posts that happened until now. So, imagine you're scum, and you're being asked that question. You don't know if there is a "right" (town indicative) or "wrong" answer, do you? Well, I don't. So you cannot answer that question clearly.

Jealous is not answering that question clearly. If I would have been asked that question, I'd have answered "scum" (or, tbh, "neutral"), because I prefer being the one being searched for instead of reading carefully through stuff and identifying/guessing inconsistencies, blatant lies, and busses. The only intention behind Jealous' answer could be to hide that he's actually glad that he rolled scum and that this is the reason of his high activity level.

Jealous, can you answer Superbia's question more clearly? What is your stance on Tictock and QuickTwist (there's a specific reason why I ask for this read which I'll tell after the answer)?

I don't know if it's possible to answer more clearly, simply because I didn't have any concrete expectations going into this. I wasn't sure if I could play up to par; I knew it might be detrimental to the game if I got a key role and couldn't perform intelligently. I rolled town and I am satisfied with my roll.
"The right to vote is only the oar of the slaveship, I wanna be free." -- бум бум сучка!
Jealous
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
10156 Posts
June 04 2016 17:21 GMT
#650
On June 05 2016 02:08 beentheredonethat wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 04 2016 19:53 Jealous wrote:
On June 04 2016 19:09 beentheredonethat wrote:
Also, following up on Tumblewood's post about QT and Jealous: if I simply follow the reads that I did so far without looking at Jealous' filter (which I haven't done yet), my logical conclusion should be that Jealous is scum. Here is my thought process about that:

1. I townread Tumblewood.
2. Tumblewood thinks that between QT and Jealous, one is scum.
3. I townread QT.

That makes Jealous scum (only if Tumblewood's thought is correct which, of course, is not granted). I am going to look at Jealous more detailed.

I'm not going to argue with what you've already admitted is highly conditional reasoning, but if your faith in Tumblewood is so great then you should check this post:

On June 04 2016 16:18 Tumblewood wrote:
ok yeah as I see it one of QT and Jealous has to be scum. they're both acting independently scummy (eager to read anything as scummy, tryhard tone, making mountains of molehills). I don't believe that they could both be town, although if they were I will mock D1 relentlessly in postgame. I also believe that they could not keep up this stupid bickering for so long as partners. I'm leaning toward QT at this point for refuting everything Jealous says and then townreading him for it (pretty shallow townread IMO, there's more to the game than just how much you write that's semi-productive). Jealous maybe, but I think my dislike of his tone biases my judgment. 6/10 would lynch QT D1 and if he flips town lynch Jealous D2
or we could plynch sqrt and let their alignments become more apparent over time.


In here he says that his suspicion lies on QuickTwist, which somewhat debunks your line of reasoning because your townreads would be only 50% accurate.

That plus your EBWOP is a great pick and shows exactly the problem I have with that scumread. My read is a bit too weak to justify a vote.

Well, so according to thekushmountains, MoosyDoosy "always plays like this" if town? Can anyone point me to some games that he played or at least confirm what thekushmountains said? Although, I'm not buying into it yet: while meta reads can be very potent, they are always a bit fragile since it's easily possible to "play for his own meta" to appear as the opposite alignment. Reading MoosyDoosy, no offense, feels like listening to the unordered thoughts of a child: open to distractions, not focusing on anything, whatever. From my experience, players that have such a playstyle mainly want to stay unreadable and are very unstable in terms of activity levels.

Well long story short, if MoosyDoosy is currently indeed playing to his town meta, it renders my arguments obsolete.

Going full circle, back to Jealous:

Show nested quote +
On June 04 2016 08:25 Jealous wrote:
On June 04 2016 08:21 Superbia wrote:
Jealous what alignment did you hope to get?

My expectations were mixed in that I simultaneously did not want to be important because I would then be under a lot of pressure to perform my duties up to a certain standard, but I also did want to have some sway in the outcome of the game beyond just words and analysis. I am satisfied with my role.

How about you?

This is a very good question from Superbia which solidifies my town read on him even further. However Jealous' answer feels really scummy to me, so I want to point that out.

IMHO, the purpose of this question is to be able to get a tone read on the questioned person. If the person admits that he's disappointed in his role or alignment, that information can be used to further analyse the posts that happened until now. So, imagine you're scum, and you're being asked that question. You don't know if there is a "right" (town indicative) or "wrong" answer, do you? Well, I don't. So you cannot answer that question clearly.

Jealous is not answering that question clearly. If I would have been asked that question, I'd have answered "scum" (or, tbh, "neutral"), because I prefer being the one being searched for instead of reading carefully through stuff and identifying/guessing inconsistencies, blatant lies, and busses. The only intention behind Jealous' answer could be to hide that he's actually glad that he rolled scum and that this is the reason of his high activity level.

Jealous, can you answer Superbia's question more clearly? What is your stance on Tictock and QuickTwist (there's a specific reason why I ask for this read which I'll tell after the answer)?

Sorry, forgot to answer your follow-up questions:

1. Tictock, I don't find him to be suspicious. Leaning towards townie but can't be certain.

2. QuickTwist, he's inconsistent, deceitful, and therefore he is either a) a player that is a detriment to the town even if he is a townie or b) scum. I voted to lynch him today.
"The right to vote is only the oar of the slaveship, I wanna be free." -- бум бум сучка!
Jealous
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
10156 Posts
June 04 2016 17:22 GMT
#651
On June 05 2016 02:11 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
Something came up.
Sorry.
/replace

That's unfortunate, but we should not ignore who voted for sqrtofneg1. Perhaps I'm forgetting something, but is there any justification forthcoming from kushmountains, QuickTwist, or Tumblewood for trying to lynch sqrtofneg1?

"The right to vote is only the oar of the slaveship, I wanna be free." -- бум бум сучка!
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
June 04 2016 17:25 GMT
#652
I don't like this "detriment to the town even if he is a townie" sentiment... what is that supposed to mean? If he is a townie, he is not detrimental to the town unless he causes us to lynch him. What is he doing? "Sowing seeds of confusion?" He's not undermining anyone, confusing anyone, he's just playing the game. Either call him scum or call him town, but don't say you'd lynch him if he's town because that's totally backwards.
good times for all
Jealous
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
10156 Posts
June 04 2016 17:30 GMT
#653
On June 05 2016 02:25 Tumblewood wrote:
I don't like this "detriment to the town even if he is a townie" sentiment... what is that supposed to mean? If he is a townie, he is not detrimental to the town unless he causes us to lynch him. What is he doing? "Sowing seeds of confusion?" He's not undermining anyone, confusing anyone, he's just playing the game. Either call him scum or call him town, but don't say you'd lynch him if he's town because that's totally backwards.

Let me be clear, I have the greatest suspicion of him being scum of anyone else in the thread so far, that is the main reason for my vote. However, my argument is that even if he flips town, then he was behaving in a way that is counterproductive to the town. Namely, he makes unsubstantiated reads, fake votes in this thread, and dodges questions. Thus, I''m doubly willing to take the chance on a Day 1 read and voted for him. Seems others feel the same way.
"The right to vote is only the oar of the slaveship, I wanna be free." -- бум бум сучка!
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
June 04 2016 17:30 GMT
#654
On June 05 2016 02:22 Jealous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2016 02:11 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
Something came up.
Sorry.
/replace

That's unfortunate, but we should not ignore who voted for sqrtofneg1. Perhaps I'm forgetting something, but is there any justification forthcoming from kushmountains, QuickTwist, or Tumblewood for trying to lynch sqrtofneg1?


I want a policy-lynch today (basically, lynching someone who is AFK), because I think that the active players will make their alignments clear as the game progresses and that the inactive players will remain coinflips throughout the game.
Also, in newbie games, scum is lynched 16% of the time on D1 when random lynching would lynch scum 25% of the time (source: the database). I would rather lynch someone who is 50/50 inactive townie / scum than someone who is 50/50 active townie / scum.
Sqrtofneg1 is perhaps the worst of the lurkers to lynch now that he is getting a replacement, but I would like to lynch someone inactive today.
good times for all
Jealous
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
10156 Posts
June 04 2016 17:31 GMT
#655
On June 05 2016 02:30 Jealous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2016 02:25 Tumblewood wrote:
I don't like this "detriment to the town even if he is a townie" sentiment... what is that supposed to mean? If he is a townie, he is not detrimental to the town unless he causes us to lynch him. What is he doing? "Sowing seeds of confusion?" He's not undermining anyone, confusing anyone, he's just playing the game. Either call him scum or call him town, but don't say you'd lynch him if he's town because that's totally backwards.

Let me be clear, he is the most suspicious person in my eyes so far, that is the main reason for my vote. However, my argument is that even if he flips town, then he was behaving in a way that is counterproductive to the town. Namely, he makes unsubstantiated reads, fake votes in this thread, and dodges questions. Thus, I''m doubly willing to take the chance on a Day 1 read and voted for him. Seems others feel the same way.

EBWOP; Phrasing
"The right to vote is only the oar of the slaveship, I wanna be free." -- бум бум сучка!
Tumblewood
Profile Joined January 2016
United States3709 Posts
June 04 2016 17:35 GMT
#656
On June 05 2016 02:30 Jealous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2016 02:25 Tumblewood wrote:
I don't like this "detriment to the town even if he is a townie" sentiment... what is that supposed to mean? If he is a townie, he is not detrimental to the town unless he causes us to lynch him. What is he doing? "Sowing seeds of confusion?" He's not undermining anyone, confusing anyone, he's just playing the game. Either call him scum or call him town, but don't say you'd lynch him if he's town because that's totally backwards.

Let me be clear, I have the greatest suspicion of him being scum of anyone else in the thread so far, that is the main reason for my vote. However, my argument is that even if he flips town, then he was behaving in a way that is counterproductive to the town. Namely, he makes unsubstantiated reads, fake votes in this thread, and dodges questions. Thus, I''m doubly willing to take the chance on a Day 1 read and voted for him. Seems others feel the same way.

that's not counterproductive to the town though
oh my... have you heard of the player "Palmar"? most people regard him as one of the best players on the site, and he almost never substantiates his reads or answers questions on D1. This is his filter from the last game he played.
One can be helpful to town without backing up what one says.
good times for all
Jealous
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
10156 Posts
June 04 2016 17:35 GMT
#657
On June 05 2016 02:30 Tumblewood wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2016 02:22 Jealous wrote:
On June 05 2016 02:11 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
Something came up.
Sorry.
/replace

That's unfortunate, but we should not ignore who voted for sqrtofneg1. Perhaps I'm forgetting something, but is there any justification forthcoming from kushmountains, QuickTwist, or Tumblewood for trying to lynch sqrtofneg1?


I want a policy-lynch today (basically, lynching someone who is AFK), because I think that the active players will make their alignments clear as the game progresses and that the inactive players will remain coinflips throughout the game.
Also, in newbie games, scum is lynched 16% of the time on D1 when random lynching would lynch scum 25% of the time (source: the database). I would rather lynch someone who is 50/50 inactive townie / scum than someone who is 50/50 active townie / scum.
Sqrtofneg1 is perhaps the worst of the lurkers to lynch now that he is getting a replacement, but I would like to lynch someone inactive today.

This makes sense, and if I didn't have my strong suspicions, I would agree with this plan.

However, it is interesting for me to note how early people voted for sqrtofneg1 even though there were other inactives.

So, you joined the vote against sqrtofneg1 to join QuickTwist and kushmountains, tying him for votes with QuickTwist. Also interesting.
"The right to vote is only the oar of the slaveship, I wanna be free." -- бум бум сучка!
Skynx
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
Turkey7150 Posts
June 04 2016 17:50 GMT
#658
On June 05 2016 02:35 Tumblewood wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2016 02:30 Jealous wrote:
On June 05 2016 02:25 Tumblewood wrote:
I don't like this "detriment to the town even if he is a townie" sentiment... what is that supposed to mean? If he is a townie, he is not detrimental to the town unless he causes us to lynch him. What is he doing? "Sowing seeds of confusion?" He's not undermining anyone, confusing anyone, he's just playing the game. Either call him scum or call him town, but don't say you'd lynch him if he's town because that's totally backwards.

Let me be clear, I have the greatest suspicion of him being scum of anyone else in the thread so far, that is the main reason for my vote. However, my argument is that even if he flips town, then he was behaving in a way that is counterproductive to the town. Namely, he makes unsubstantiated reads, fake votes in this thread, and dodges questions. Thus, I''m doubly willing to take the chance on a Day 1 read and voted for him. Seems others feel the same way.

that's not counterproductive to the town though
oh my... have you heard of the player "Palmar"? most people regard him as one of the best players on the site, and he almost never substantiates his reads or answers questions on D1. This is his filter from the last game he played.
One can be helpful to town without backing up what one says.

Kinda off-topic but I was 95% sure Palmar was scum after Koshi was clipped.
"When seagulls follow the troller, it is because they think sardines will be thrown into the sea. Thank you very much" - King Cantona | STX 4 eva
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
June 04 2016 17:59 GMT
#659
On June 05 2016 01:19 Tumblewood wrote:
BTDT (that's what I'll be calling beentheredonethat for the rest of the game) is probably town because newbie scums tend to have a hard time making a coherent, decent case.

i agree! that was the exact same read that i had :D
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
beentheredonethat
Profile Joined May 2016
2934 Posts
June 04 2016 18:00 GMT
#660
On June 05 2016 02:21 Jealous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2016 02:08 beentheredonethat wrote:
On June 04 2016 19:53 Jealous wrote:
On June 04 2016 19:09 beentheredonethat wrote:
Also, following up on Tumblewood's post about QT and Jealous: if I simply follow the reads that I did so far without looking at Jealous' filter (which I haven't done yet), my logical conclusion should be that Jealous is scum. Here is my thought process about that:

1. I townread Tumblewood.
2. Tumblewood thinks that between QT and Jealous, one is scum.
3. I townread QT.

That makes Jealous scum (only if Tumblewood's thought is correct which, of course, is not granted). I am going to look at Jealous more detailed.

I'm not going to argue with what you've already admitted is highly conditional reasoning, but if your faith in Tumblewood is so great then you should check this post:

On June 04 2016 16:18 Tumblewood wrote:
ok yeah as I see it one of QT and Jealous has to be scum. they're both acting independently scummy (eager to read anything as scummy, tryhard tone, making mountains of molehills). I don't believe that they could both be town, although if they were I will mock D1 relentlessly in postgame. I also believe that they could not keep up this stupid bickering for so long as partners. I'm leaning toward QT at this point for refuting everything Jealous says and then townreading him for it (pretty shallow townread IMO, there's more to the game than just how much you write that's semi-productive). Jealous maybe, but I think my dislike of his tone biases my judgment. 6/10 would lynch QT D1 and if he flips town lynch Jealous D2
or we could plynch sqrt and let their alignments become more apparent over time.


In here he says that his suspicion lies on QuickTwist, which somewhat debunks your line of reasoning because your townreads would be only 50% accurate.

That plus your EBWOP is a great pick and shows exactly the problem I have with that scumread. My read is a bit too weak to justify a vote.

Well, so according to thekushmountains, MoosyDoosy "always plays like this" if town? Can anyone point me to some games that he played or at least confirm what thekushmountains said? Although, I'm not buying into it yet: while meta reads can be very potent, they are always a bit fragile since it's easily possible to "play for his own meta" to appear as the opposite alignment. Reading MoosyDoosy, no offense, feels like listening to the unordered thoughts of a child: open to distractions, not focusing on anything, whatever. From my experience, players that have such a playstyle mainly want to stay unreadable and are very unstable in terms of activity levels.

Well long story short, if MoosyDoosy is currently indeed playing to his town meta, it renders my arguments obsolete.

Going full circle, back to Jealous:

On June 04 2016 08:25 Jealous wrote:
On June 04 2016 08:21 Superbia wrote:
Jealous what alignment did you hope to get?

My expectations were mixed in that I simultaneously did not want to be important because I would then be under a lot of pressure to perform my duties up to a certain standard, but I also did want to have some sway in the outcome of the game beyond just words and analysis. I am satisfied with my role.

How about you?

This is a very good question from Superbia which solidifies my town read on him even further. However Jealous' answer feels really scummy to me, so I want to point that out.

IMHO, the purpose of this question is to be able to get a tone read on the questioned person. If the person admits that he's disappointed in his role or alignment, that information can be used to further analyse the posts that happened until now. So, imagine you're scum, and you're being asked that question. You don't know if there is a "right" (town indicative) or "wrong" answer, do you? Well, I don't. So you cannot answer that question clearly.

Jealous is not answering that question clearly. If I would have been asked that question, I'd have answered "scum" (or, tbh, "neutral"), because I prefer being the one being searched for instead of reading carefully through stuff and identifying/guessing inconsistencies, blatant lies, and busses. The only intention behind Jealous' answer could be to hide that he's actually glad that he rolled scum and that this is the reason of his high activity level.

Jealous, can you answer Superbia's question more clearly? What is your stance on Tictock and QuickTwist (there's a specific reason why I ask for this read which I'll tell after the answer)?

Sorry, forgot to answer your follow-up questions:

1. Tictock, I don't find him to be suspicious. Leaning towards townie but can't be certain.

2. QuickTwist, he's inconsistent, deceitful, and therefore he is either a) a player that is a detriment to the town even if he is a townie or b) scum. I voted to lynch him today.

Okay. My purpose in this question was basically to be able to compare a read you've given by voting to a read that cannot be really existing. Your stance on Tictock makes sense.

Still fine with a MoosyDoosy or a policy lynch. I caught some threads here where MoosyDoosy is playing a similar style as he does now.

However, if QT is a detriment to town, why isn't moosy? In your eyes, he should be, right? That's quite the inconsistency.
"Micro tricks like marine splitting, blink stalker micro, and ling/baneling wars were the apex of the game’s achievements; nothing in the world takes your breath away like watching a pro player split marines like a god."
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