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Sorry yesterday i had tons of work since in Mexico we wont work this monday and i had to hand in a lot of stuff.
Yes i have been mia, useless, etc but town.
You cant tell me i am faking or sonething because i wanted to out early game :/
So if you think lynching me will help to solve the gane feel free to do so. I will try to be more active later but my dad will have a small surgery on his knee this morning.
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Btw to further explain why we lynch TT:
I do not have an overly strong conviction someone is mafia right now. There's no 100% mafia player right now. Keirathi is a good player though and he seemed very convinced TT is scum. I read his case and I think it is good.
Generally it's a good idea to sheep very convinced good townies who sound like they're making sense. Unless someone has a slam dunk mafia case this is by far our best play right now.
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I skimmed shinings filter and it's not bad at all
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On January 30 2016 22:48 Palmar wrote:
Btw, given Rels' shitty record of protection this game he is probably mafia.
I protected one hit N2.
My bluff was probably the reason keir died instead of you N3.
So, very kindly, shut up.
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On January 31 2016 00:16 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2016 22:23 Rels wrote:On January 30 2016 09:28 sicklucker wrote:
No rels is like the only role left with powers thats not confirmed or done anything. I mean hes mafia ... Not one save all game that im aware of Fuck you. I've stated two times through the thread my save. So please go to the end of your theory: if I'm not confirmed, what role am I ? I must have picked something that give my team an advantage right ? What do you propose that gives no extra KP, no extra RB, no power suppressed ? you should go through your night actions more. you listed them but you didnt account for any missing kp in your posts for potential saves
OK tell me what I could have done better:
N1 I didn't say anything to keep my charge number in the unknown.
N2 I protected one of Palmar (=> Damdred) or Superbia and claimed it once I had the confirmation I couldn't know which one.
N3 I claimed all my prots.
What are your advice there ?
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On January 31 2016 02:24 Palmar wrote:
Btw to further explain why we lynch TT:
I do not have an overly strong conviction someone is mafia right now. There's no 100% mafia player right now. Keirathi is a good player though and he seemed very convinced TT is scum. I read his case and I think it is good.
Generally it's a good idea to sheep very convinced good townies who sound like they're making sense. Unless someone has a slam dunk mafia case this is by far our best play right now.
TT is my preferred lynch as well. What did you think of my post on him ?
I only skimmed what keir said yesterday, will read that.
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On January 30 2016 06:12 Keirathi wrote:So, before the deadline, someone talk with my about Tictock. He's probably scum because: 1) Slip Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 09:17 Tictock wrote:On January 27 2016 09:09 Palmar wrote:On January 27 2016 09:05 Tictock wrote:On January 27 2016 08:51 Superbia wrote:On January 27 2016 08:50 Tictock wrote:
Super being RB'd just means mafia wanted to stop him from saving/killing anyone.
Implying that the RB happened to save me is silly kus he claimed who he would shoot at the last second.
Not like it helps prove I'm town, but it def doesn't confirm me as mafia. Who do you think is the most likely to have blocked me, and why? It guess GB, it's weird that he was pretty adamant about never claiming, then suddenly claimed last night. Though tbh it's interesting that this is the 2nd time that you claim to shoot and it doesn't happen. I also get the benefit of knowing that you've only tried to kill town so far this game. I disagree that Super and Rels are confirmed town, hell I'm still not sure I really trust Palmar. Koshi and SL I'm fairly convinced are town. I'm also pretty convinced Disformation and Keir are town. That's where I'll make my start for looking over people today. explain right now why you are more sure on SL than me. SL tried to say I'm definitly mafia because FF said me and Kita were a team, but then started to mix things and and said that Kita was the one who was saying I was on a team with FF. If he was scum I don't think he'd flip the names around like that kus he'd actually know who is on his team.
You are pretty unlikely having cased Vivax and Kita early on, could still be that you are scum on the other team though. Like Koshi said scumhunting doesn't really confirm you town in this setup kus for all we know your only scumhunting for one team. His phrasing there implies TMI. 2) Weird read progression on Onegu Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 14:08 Tictock wrote:Ok so... started this expecting to just make a simple list post but since the game is at a manageable size now I'll give you all more of my thinking. Remember, you asked for this. I'm pretty sure these people are town: 13. Koshi ( + Show Spoiler +Initial read was town, got worried based off EoD1 and him roleblocking me solely because I started scumreading him, EoD2 and varies interactions have me pretty sold on him being town.
D2 should pretty much prove Koshi as town, only tinfoil left is if he was scum with FF and bussed him ) 15. The Shining ( + Show Spoiler +not sure I have really solid reasoning, so I could be wrong. but he convinced me early on that his mindset was towny. I'd prob only review if presented a good case on him ) 17. sicklucker ( + Show Spoiler +gave reasoning before, lots of things make me think he's town though ) These people might not be town, but are definitely not good lynches today 21. CopCake ( + Show Spoiler +gut/meta read says town. Shoveled GB upon request. It may not be super strong, but I think her role would be optimal for scum later in the game to help her team. So using it like this makes it unlikely she had a real agenda for her role. ) 22. Palmar ( + Show Spoiler +Has been pretty pro town, and sorta an ass while doing it. Oh yea also he did a good job finding scum D1 ) 12. Superbia ( + Show Spoiler +Honestly I'm not sure and I've been doubting my initial townread on him since he took CPRDoc and started dropping off. His shots on VA and me don't look very good to me either, it's like he's only shooting low hanging fruit. I've played with him when he was Vig and his play was a lot different ( his filter that game) but idk how strong that is given the vast setup differences. I left him in this section because even if he is mafia he should be trying to hit other mafia, which makes him more of a threat to mafia than to town. ) 5. Keirathi ( + Show Spoiler +I doubt scum fakes that spreadsheet thing he did, though as I'm typing I have to wonder why he waited till N2 to share it. If he gave up on it early why not just share it then?
Ehh checking timestamps it seems pretty impossible that he faked that in response to what was going on at the time, and if your gunna preplan something like that I think you'd just make some real effort into the current gamestate not shit from preD1. So there, it's even tinfoil proof.
Oh also there's other stuff but I feel like I used all my space here. ) Which leaves me with these people to look at even though I've got 2 scum somewhere above this. 1. disformation ( + Show Spoiler + Was suspect of him most of the early game, he did something that made me townread him more. Yes, I actually can't think of what it was atm. Think it's time to take a long hard look at his filter and see if he deserved that TR.
Initial thinking is that he's been pretty active and open but hasn't really been putting in the effort that I've seen him make as town. Palmar also was right to ping out his GB case, it was really over the top for the actual content it had. Then again I think I've made bad filter posts like that before as town so idk.
At the very least Dis should be happy that his nickname now implies how other people read him as well as his own reads. ) 3. Rels ( + Show Spoiler +I'll be honest, I'm mostly letting my fear get to me. Rels plays a strong active scum game though and I think his play this game might just be that. I don't have much conclusive to support that but I'll def be going through his filter checking some things.
Some things I've noticed that Rels does as scum that might help: he doesn't bus (would be extra bad in this game), he goes after low-hanging fruit, over focuses on small details to make scum reads off of. Those are the sorta things I'll be looking for ) 4. Onegu ( + Show Spoiler +honestly pretty torn on Onegu. I thought the logic of him killing Alot as scum made sense, but I'm not sure if that's enough now. I need to check some stuff about how he's been using his power too.
This is pure tinfoil but I was thinking Onegu's role and the way he's been using it could still be used rather effectively as scum. What if Onegu is scum and his team have been targeting themselves with KP and he's been bussing his teammates with someone they picked? Gets his team a lot of cred as they "get shot"
I could well be way off course, but if that's true though it would add up as a team of FF, Onegu, Palmar, Koshi makes sense even given how D2 went down. ) Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 14:11 Tictock wrote:
Eh my misgiving's about Superbia are probably being influenced by OMGUS.
Gunna yolo predict this game is
Koshi, Palmar, Onegu, FF (kus that would be sweet plays by them) vs Kita, Vivax, Dis, Rels (kus that would mean my D1 reads were pretty decent) Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 14:21 Tictock wrote:On January 27 2016 14:11 Tictock wrote:
Eh my misgiving's about Superbia are probably being influenced by OMGUS.
Gunna yolo predict this game is
Koshi, Palmar, Onegu, FF (kus that would be sweet plays by them) vs Kita, Vivax, Dis, Rels (kus that would mean my D1 reads were pretty decent) For now I'm gunna just assume this is god teir reads and vote Onegu to get rid of his role and keep the teams balanced. ##Vote: Onegu I already said what was wrong with this here, and here in that chain of quotes. 3) This post: Show nested quote +On January 29 2016 13:02 Tictock wrote:On January 29 2016 12:56 Keirathi wrote:On January 29 2016 12:52 Koshi wrote:On January 29 2016 12:50 Keirathi wrote:On January 29 2016 12:41 Koshi wrote:On January 27 2016 14:08 Tictock wrote:Ok so... started this expecting to just make a simple list post but since the game is at a manageable size now I'll give you all more of my thinking. Remember, you asked for this. I'm pretty sure these people are town: 13. Koshi ( + Show Spoiler +Initial read was town, got worried based off EoD1 and him roleblocking me solely because I started scumreading him, EoD2 and varies interactions have me pretty sold on him being town.
D2 should pretty much prove Koshi as town, only tinfoil left is if he was scum with FF and bussed him ) 15. The Shining ( + Show Spoiler +not sure I have really solid reasoning, so I could be wrong. but he convinced me early on that his mindset was towny. I'd prob only review if presented a good case on him ) 17. sicklucker ( + Show Spoiler +gave reasoning before, lots of things make me think he's town though ) These people might not be town, but are definitely not good lynches today 21. CopCake ( + Show Spoiler +gut/meta read says town. Shoveled GB upon request. It may not be super strong, but I think her role would be optimal for scum later in the game to help her team. So using it like this makes it unlikely she had a real agenda for her role. ) 22. Palmar ( + Show Spoiler +Has been pretty pro town, and sorta an ass while doing it. Oh yea also he did a good job finding scum D1 ) 12. Superbia ( + Show Spoiler +Honestly I'm not sure and I've been doubting my initial townread on him since he took CPRDoc and started dropping off. His shots on VA and me don't look very good to me either, it's like he's only shooting low hanging fruit. I've played with him when he was Vig and his play was a lot different ( his filter that game) but idk how strong that is given the vast setup differences. I left him in this section because even if he is mafia he should be trying to hit other mafia, which makes him more of a threat to mafia than to town. ) 5. Keirathi ( + Show Spoiler +I doubt scum fakes that spreadsheet thing he did, though as I'm typing I have to wonder why he waited till N2 to share it. If he gave up on it early why not just share it then?
Ehh checking timestamps it seems pretty impossible that he faked that in response to what was going on at the time, and if your gunna preplan something like that I think you'd just make some real effort into the current gamestate not shit from preD1. So there, it's even tinfoil proof.
Oh also there's other stuff but I feel like I used all my space here. ) Which leaves me with these people to look at even though I've got 2 scum somewhere above this. 1. disformation ( + Show Spoiler + Was suspect of him most of the early game, he did something that made me townread him more. Yes, I actually can't think of what it was atm. Think it's time to take a long hard look at his filter and see if he deserved that TR.
Initial thinking is that he's been pretty active and open but hasn't really been putting in the effort that I've seen him make as town. Palmar also was right to ping out his GB case, it was really over the top for the actual content it had. Then again I think I've made bad filter posts like that before as town so idk.
At the very least Dis should be happy that his nickname now implies how other people read him as well as his own reads. ) 3. Rels ( + Show Spoiler +I'll be honest, I'm mostly letting my fear get to me. Rels plays a strong active scum game though and I think his play this game might just be that. I don't have much conclusive to support that but I'll def be going through his filter checking some things.
Some things I've noticed that Rels does as scum that might help: he doesn't bus (would be extra bad in this game), he goes after low-hanging fruit, over focuses on small details to make scum reads off of. Those are the sorta things I'll be looking for ) 4. Onegu ( + Show Spoiler +honestly pretty torn on Onegu. I thought the logic of him killing Alot as scum made sense, but I'm not sure if that's enough now. I need to check some stuff about how he's been using his power too.
This is pure tinfoil but I was thinking Onegu's role and the way he's been using it could still be used rather effectively as scum. What if Onegu is scum and his team have been targeting themselves with KP and he's been bussing his teammates with someone they picked? Gets his team a lot of cred as they "get shot"
I could well be way off course, but if that's true though it would add up as a team of FF, Onegu, Palmar, Koshi makes sense even given how D2 went down. ) Could some1 look at this and tell me if this could come from mafia? And why? I do. I said why here: On January 27 2016 15:08 Keirathi wrote:On January 27 2016 14:52 Keirathi wrote:
That was a whole lot of words to say things you don't really believe. To expound - You have Koshi listed as almost guaranteed town. You think Palmar has been really townie but refuse to put him in town category. You want to call Onegu town, but MAYBE JUST MAYBE there's a tinfoil theory where Palmar, Koshi, and Onegu are all scum together. And you vote Onegu? Not one of the other people that you think might be scum for their own sake. Onegu for the 1 in a million BIG PLAYS tinfoil. Doesn't sound very believable to me. Nothing in here makes him mafia. You just think his reads are odd. I agree. They are odd as fuck. That's not what I said. The reads are a little odd, yes, but that doesn't make him Mafia. The part that makes him Mafia was his attitude towards those reads, and the conclusion he reached to vote onegu because of it??? Don't be salty that I was totally off about his teammates but still correctly lynched your scumbuddy. I had already said that stuff yesterday, and was just repeating it again having a conversation with koshi. Why didn't he have a problem with it THEN, but does NOW? And I obviously wasn't acting 'salty', so what was the point of jabbing at me like that?
+ Show Spoiler [SPECULATION AREA, STAY AWAY] +
So, because of the slip and the way his reads on Kita/Vivax changed (he had Kita as scum all the way through draft phase and day 1, then mysteriously after koshi launched his nuke, Kita was in his town reads, for Vivax during day 1 he started calling Vivax scum a few times, but didn't vote for him until the wagon was basically unstoppable), I think it's fairly likely that he is on a team with them.
Which leads me to believe FF and Onegu were on the other team.
So: kita/vivax/TT/?? vs FF/Onegu/??/??
I think that probably puts disfo on the FF/Onegu team. Them having Watson and Moriarty would give them a good position to lie about any of FF's checks (by claiming FF was insane, whether he was or not. FF could just do whatever and always had an excuse to never have a useful result), and let disfo try to keep them alive at night.
Still trying to work out who the last two would be. GB/Cake seem almost too easy.
OK that is super good and probably the reason he died. Let's murder TT.
##Vote Tictock
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On January 30 2016 07:58 Keirathi wrote:
I'm tracking Cake, despite me just saying that I don't think she's the same as the scum!Cake i played with because I'm jut not sure. The setting is too different, she obviously has less time, etc. So getting hard data, even if it doesn't PROVE anything, rather than just some maybes.
OK so copcake couldn't be a KP carrier yesterday. TT has to be the one that killed keir.
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Thinking about it, I'm confirmed not the keir killer 'cause I'm Palmar's list with him.
Copcake is confirmed not keir killer 'cause she was tracked.
So who ?
Shining who is kinda useless but seems townie, and who Keir called probably town ? 1%
SL who keir called the last scum in his speculation post ? Maaaaaaybe but why over me / other valuable targets ? 5%
Palmar who is obvious town ? 0.1%
Superbia who is obvious town ? 0.1%
Unless I forgot someone it's 93.8% TT.
STATS CONFIRMED
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Still think Copcake is veeeeery likely to be the last one though, assuming GB is scum. Koshi's kill points to SL, but he's been townie apart from the Palmar's trap reaction which was waaaaaaay over the top, and Copcake was useless all game. Even if keir's tracks is town points for her, I can't see someone else over her.
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Alright spending the evening with my fiance, see you later friends. (=
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On January 31 2016 02:48 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2016 00:16 sicklucker wrote:On January 30 2016 22:23 Rels wrote:On January 30 2016 09:28 sicklucker wrote:
No rels is like the only role left with powers thats not confirmed or done anything. I mean hes mafia ... Not one save all game that im aware of Fuck you. I've stated two times through the thread my save. So please go to the end of your theory: if I'm not confirmed, what role am I ? I must have picked something that give my team an advantage right ? What do you propose that gives no extra KP, no extra RB, no power suppressed ? you should go through your night actions more. you listed them but you didnt account for any missing kp in your posts for potential saves OK tell me what I could have done better: N1 I didn't say anything to keep my charge number in the unknown. N2 I protected one of Palmar (=> Damdred) or Superbia and claimed it once I had the confirmation I couldn't know which one. N3 I claimed all my prots. What are your advice there ?
i just wanted you to go through it so I can read you.. You think I remember every fucking post itsl ike 300 pages long
SO my reason for townreading TIcktock is acualy somewhat proven false with a keir flip. The safe play is to lynch him or copcake since rels could still get a save.
IT makes no fucking sense that 4 of the top 5 most obvious/active towns are still alive tho like what is happening. The only one who died was koshi and his reads were shit (me scum onegu town)
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On January 31 2016 03:15 Rels wrote:
Thinking about it, I'm confirmed not the keir killer 'cause I'm Palmar's list with him.
Copcake is confirmed not keir killer 'cause she was tracked.
So who ?
Shining who is kinda useless but seems townie, and who Keir called probably town ? 1%
SL who keir called the last scum in his speculation post ? Maaaaaaybe but why over me / other valuable targets ? 5%
Palmar who is obvious town ? 0.1%
Superbia who is obvious town ? 0.1%
Unless I forgot someone it's 93.8% TT.
STATS CONFIRMED
koshi roleblocked me last night dude I could not deliver scum kp
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No it still could have been copcake that killed keir. Tracking does not stop someone from using an action it just tracks them and hes dead so we will never know...
If keir didnt last second post his action it acualy is points for copcake being mafia
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Couldn't help but notice this.
These posts are in order.
On January 30 2016 22:47 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2016 22:24 Rels wrote:On January 30 2016 10:26 Palmar wrote:
It's super tempting to flip copcake just to know what gb was It's super tempting to flip copcake, end of sentence. GB is like 99% scum it's not worth it to flip copcake just to verify; but we need to kill her 'cause she's still useless. See this is not necessary, really. I have no tonal reason to think she's mafia. Although of course her activity points towards it. The point is, if GB was mafia and we hit mafia today, KP should go down to 1. If it remains 2, GB was town. So the best course of action, even for information, is to find mafia and lynch it. Tonight we had 2 kp, so that means the 4(5) mafia who flipped were not 4 on the same team. The most likely option of flipped mafia (right now) is: Vivax Disfo Kita Onegu FF (GB??) This means no matter which team we kill mafia from, kp should go down to 1 and we should be in splendid shape. In any case, I really, really think Keirathi's case on Tictock was actually quite good. I am going to sheep it today and kill TT.
On January 31 2016 02:50 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2016 02:24 Palmar wrote:
Btw to further explain why we lynch TT:
I do not have an overly strong conviction someone is mafia right now. There's no 100% mafia player right now. Keirathi is a good player though and he seemed very convinced TT is scum. I read his case and I think it is good.
Generally it's a good idea to sheep very convinced good townies who sound like they're making sense. Unless someone has a slam dunk mafia case this is by far our best play right now. TT is my preferred lynch as well. What did you think of my post on him ? I only skimmed what keir said yesterday, will read that.
On January 31 2016 02:55 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2016 06:12 Keirathi wrote:So, before the deadline, someone talk with my about Tictock. He's probably scum because: 1) Slip On January 27 2016 09:17 Tictock wrote:On January 27 2016 09:09 Palmar wrote:On January 27 2016 09:05 Tictock wrote:On January 27 2016 08:51 Superbia wrote:On January 27 2016 08:50 Tictock wrote:
Super being RB'd just means mafia wanted to stop him from saving/killing anyone.
Implying that the RB happened to save me is silly kus he claimed who he would shoot at the last second.
Not like it helps prove I'm town, but it def doesn't confirm me as mafia. Who do you think is the most likely to have blocked me, and why? It guess GB, it's weird that he was pretty adamant about never claiming, then suddenly claimed last night. Though tbh it's interesting that this is the 2nd time that you claim to shoot and it doesn't happen. I also get the benefit of knowing that you've only tried to kill town so far this game. I disagree that Super and Rels are confirmed town, hell I'm still not sure I really trust Palmar. Koshi and SL I'm fairly convinced are town. I'm also pretty convinced Disformation and Keir are town. That's where I'll make my start for looking over people today. explain right now why you are more sure on SL than me. SL tried to say I'm definitly mafia because FF said me and Kita were a team, but then started to mix things and and said that Kita was the one who was saying I was on a team with FF. If he was scum I don't think he'd flip the names around like that kus he'd actually know who is on his team.
You are pretty unlikely having cased Vivax and Kita early on, could still be that you are scum on the other team though. Like Koshi said scumhunting doesn't really confirm you town in this setup kus for all we know your only scumhunting for one team. His phrasing there implies TMI. 2) Weird read progression on Onegu On January 27 2016 14:08 Tictock wrote:Ok so... started this expecting to just make a simple list post but since the game is at a manageable size now I'll give you all more of my thinking. Remember, you asked for this. I'm pretty sure these people are town: 13. Koshi ( + Show Spoiler +Initial read was town, got worried based off EoD1 and him roleblocking me solely because I started scumreading him, EoD2 and varies interactions have me pretty sold on him being town.
D2 should pretty much prove Koshi as town, only tinfoil left is if he was scum with FF and bussed him ) 15. The Shining ( + Show Spoiler +not sure I have really solid reasoning, so I could be wrong. but he convinced me early on that his mindset was towny. I'd prob only review if presented a good case on him ) 17. sicklucker ( + Show Spoiler +gave reasoning before, lots of things make me think he's town though ) These people might not be town, but are definitely not good lynches today 21. CopCake ( + Show Spoiler +gut/meta read says town. Shoveled GB upon request. It may not be super strong, but I think her role would be optimal for scum later in the game to help her team. So using it like this makes it unlikely she had a real agenda for her role. ) 22. Palmar ( + Show Spoiler +Has been pretty pro town, and sorta an ass while doing it. Oh yea also he did a good job finding scum D1 ) 12. Superbia ( + Show Spoiler +Honestly I'm not sure and I've been doubting my initial townread on him since he took CPRDoc and started dropping off. His shots on VA and me don't look very good to me either, it's like he's only shooting low hanging fruit. I've played with him when he was Vig and his play was a lot different ( his filter that game) but idk how strong that is given the vast setup differences. I left him in this section because even if he is mafia he should be trying to hit other mafia, which makes him more of a threat to mafia than to town. ) 5. Keirathi ( + Show Spoiler +I doubt scum fakes that spreadsheet thing he did, though as I'm typing I have to wonder why he waited till N2 to share it. If he gave up on it early why not just share it then?
Ehh checking timestamps it seems pretty impossible that he faked that in response to what was going on at the time, and if your gunna preplan something like that I think you'd just make some real effort into the current gamestate not shit from preD1. So there, it's even tinfoil proof.
Oh also there's other stuff but I feel like I used all my space here. ) Which leaves me with these people to look at even though I've got 2 scum somewhere above this. 1. disformation ( + Show Spoiler + Was suspect of him most of the early game, he did something that made me townread him more. Yes, I actually can't think of what it was atm. Think it's time to take a long hard look at his filter and see if he deserved that TR.
Initial thinking is that he's been pretty active and open but hasn't really been putting in the effort that I've seen him make as town. Palmar also was right to ping out his GB case, it was really over the top for the actual content it had. Then again I think I've made bad filter posts like that before as town so idk.
At the very least Dis should be happy that his nickname now implies how other people read him as well as his own reads. ) 3. Rels ( + Show Spoiler +I'll be honest, I'm mostly letting my fear get to me. Rels plays a strong active scum game though and I think his play this game might just be that. I don't have much conclusive to support that but I'll def be going through his filter checking some things.
Some things I've noticed that Rels does as scum that might help: he doesn't bus (would be extra bad in this game), he goes after low-hanging fruit, over focuses on small details to make scum reads off of. Those are the sorta things I'll be looking for ) 4. Onegu ( + Show Spoiler +honestly pretty torn on Onegu. I thought the logic of him killing Alot as scum made sense, but I'm not sure if that's enough now. I need to check some stuff about how he's been using his power too.
This is pure tinfoil but I was thinking Onegu's role and the way he's been using it could still be used rather effectively as scum. What if Onegu is scum and his team have been targeting themselves with KP and he's been bussing his teammates with someone they picked? Gets his team a lot of cred as they "get shot"
I could well be way off course, but if that's true though it would add up as a team of FF, Onegu, Palmar, Koshi makes sense even given how D2 went down. ) On January 27 2016 14:11 Tictock wrote:
Eh my misgiving's about Superbia are probably being influenced by OMGUS.
Gunna yolo predict this game is
Koshi, Palmar, Onegu, FF (kus that would be sweet plays by them) vs Kita, Vivax, Dis, Rels (kus that would mean my D1 reads were pretty decent) On January 27 2016 14:21 Tictock wrote:On January 27 2016 14:11 Tictock wrote:
Eh my misgiving's about Superbia are probably being influenced by OMGUS.
Gunna yolo predict this game is
Koshi, Palmar, Onegu, FF (kus that would be sweet plays by them) vs Kita, Vivax, Dis, Rels (kus that would mean my D1 reads were pretty decent) For now I'm gunna just assume this is god teir reads and vote Onegu to get rid of his role and keep the teams balanced. ##Vote: Onegu I already said what was wrong with this here, and here in that chain of quotes. 3) This post: On January 29 2016 13:02 Tictock wrote:On January 29 2016 12:56 Keirathi wrote:On January 29 2016 12:52 Koshi wrote:On January 29 2016 12:50 Keirathi wrote:On January 29 2016 12:41 Koshi wrote:On January 27 2016 14:08 Tictock wrote:Ok so... started this expecting to just make a simple list post but since the game is at a manageable size now I'll give you all more of my thinking. Remember, you asked for this. I'm pretty sure these people are town: 13. Koshi ( + Show Spoiler +Initial read was town, got worried based off EoD1 and him roleblocking me solely because I started scumreading him, EoD2 and varies interactions have me pretty sold on him being town.
D2 should pretty much prove Koshi as town, only tinfoil left is if he was scum with FF and bussed him ) 15. The Shining ( + Show Spoiler +not sure I have really solid reasoning, so I could be wrong. but he convinced me early on that his mindset was towny. I'd prob only review if presented a good case on him ) 17. sicklucker ( + Show Spoiler +gave reasoning before, lots of things make me think he's town though ) These people might not be town, but are definitely not good lynches today 21. CopCake ( + Show Spoiler +gut/meta read says town. Shoveled GB upon request. It may not be super strong, but I think her role would be optimal for scum later in the game to help her team. So using it like this makes it unlikely she had a real agenda for her role. ) 22. Palmar ( + Show Spoiler +Has been pretty pro town, and sorta an ass while doing it. Oh yea also he did a good job finding scum D1 ) 12. Superbia ( + Show Spoiler +Honestly I'm not sure and I've been doubting my initial townread on him since he took CPRDoc and started dropping off. His shots on VA and me don't look very good to me either, it's like he's only shooting low hanging fruit. I've played with him when he was Vig and his play was a lot different ( his filter that game) but idk how strong that is given the vast setup differences. I left him in this section because even if he is mafia he should be trying to hit other mafia, which makes him more of a threat to mafia than to town. ) 5. Keirathi ( + Show Spoiler +I doubt scum fakes that spreadsheet thing he did, though as I'm typing I have to wonder why he waited till N2 to share it. If he gave up on it early why not just share it then?
Ehh checking timestamps it seems pretty impossible that he faked that in response to what was going on at the time, and if your gunna preplan something like that I think you'd just make some real effort into the current gamestate not shit from preD1. So there, it's even tinfoil proof.
Oh also there's other stuff but I feel like I used all my space here. ) Which leaves me with these people to look at even though I've got 2 scum somewhere above this. 1. disformation ( + Show Spoiler + Was suspect of him most of the early game, he did something that made me townread him more. Yes, I actually can't think of what it was atm. Think it's time to take a long hard look at his filter and see if he deserved that TR.
Initial thinking is that he's been pretty active and open but hasn't really been putting in the effort that I've seen him make as town. Palmar also was right to ping out his GB case, it was really over the top for the actual content it had. Then again I think I've made bad filter posts like that before as town so idk.
At the very least Dis should be happy that his nickname now implies how other people read him as well as his own reads. ) 3. Rels ( + Show Spoiler +I'll be honest, I'm mostly letting my fear get to me. Rels plays a strong active scum game though and I think his play this game might just be that. I don't have much conclusive to support that but I'll def be going through his filter checking some things.
Some things I've noticed that Rels does as scum that might help: he doesn't bus (would be extra bad in this game), he goes after low-hanging fruit, over focuses on small details to make scum reads off of. Those are the sorta things I'll be looking for ) 4. Onegu ( + Show Spoiler +honestly pretty torn on Onegu. I thought the logic of him killing Alot as scum made sense, but I'm not sure if that's enough now. I need to check some stuff about how he's been using his power too.
This is pure tinfoil but I was thinking Onegu's role and the way he's been using it could still be used rather effectively as scum. What if Onegu is scum and his team have been targeting themselves with KP and he's been bussing his teammates with someone they picked? Gets his team a lot of cred as they "get shot"
I could well be way off course, but if that's true though it would add up as a team of FF, Onegu, Palmar, Koshi makes sense even given how D2 went down. ) Could some1 look at this and tell me if this could come from mafia? And why? I do. I said why here: On January 27 2016 15:08 Keirathi wrote:On January 27 2016 14:52 Keirathi wrote:
That was a whole lot of words to say things you don't really believe. To expound - You have Koshi listed as almost guaranteed town. You think Palmar has been really townie but refuse to put him in town category. You want to call Onegu town, but MAYBE JUST MAYBE there's a tinfoil theory where Palmar, Koshi, and Onegu are all scum together. And you vote Onegu? Not one of the other people that you think might be scum for their own sake. Onegu for the 1 in a million BIG PLAYS tinfoil. Doesn't sound very believable to me. Nothing in here makes him mafia. You just think his reads are odd. I agree. They are odd as fuck. That's not what I said. The reads are a little odd, yes, but that doesn't make him Mafia. The part that makes him Mafia was his attitude towards those reads, and the conclusion he reached to vote onegu because of it??? Don't be salty that I was totally off about his teammates but still correctly lynched your scumbuddy. I had already said that stuff yesterday, and was just repeating it again having a conversation with koshi. Why didn't he have a problem with it THEN, but does NOW? And I obviously wasn't acting 'salty', so what was the point of jabbing at me like that?
+ Show Spoiler [SPECULATION AREA, STAY AWAY] +
So, because of the slip and the way his reads on Kita/Vivax changed (he had Kita as scum all the way through draft phase and day 1, then mysteriously after koshi launched his nuke, Kita was in his town reads, for Vivax during day 1 he started calling Vivax scum a few times, but didn't vote for him until the wagon was basically unstoppable), I think it's fairly likely that he is on a team with them.
Which leads me to believe FF and Onegu were on the other team.
So: kita/vivax/TT/?? vs FF/Onegu/??/??
I think that probably puts disfo on the FF/Onegu team. Them having Watson and Moriarty would give them a good position to lie about any of FF's checks (by claiming FF was insane, whether he was or not. FF could just do whatever and always had an excuse to never have a useful result), and let disfo try to keep them alive at night.
Still trying to work out who the last two would be. GB/Cake seem almost too easy.
OK that is super good and probably the reason he died. Let's murder TT. ##Vote Tictock
First Rels says Keir's case was really good, then says he only skimmed it, then quotes it going "Oh yea this is good, lets sheep that"
Also this:
On January 31 2016 03:02 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2016 07:58 Keirathi wrote:
I'm tracking Cake, despite me just saying that I don't think she's the same as the scum!Cake i played with because I'm jut not sure. The setting is too different, she obviously has less time, etc. So getting hard data, even if it doesn't PROVE anything, rather than just some maybes. OK so copcake couldn't be a KP carrier yesterday. TT has to be the one that killed keir.
Why does Keir saying he's gunna track Copcake imply that she wasn't carrying KP? The post from Keir was his last post before he dies btw. I really don't understand wtf Rels is thinking here.
Also I am confirmed not capable of delivering KP last night due to the Vanilla virus as I stated here.
On January 30 2016 13:54 Tictock wrote:
Huh, apparently I was wrong about the Vanilla Virus.
It is in fact a Roleblocking effect.
Was surprised when I saw the notification.
Normally Rels is all about fact checking, if he thinks that post from Keir somehow means that I had to have delivered KP last night, why didn't he bother checking that my claim that I was RB'd by the Virus checks out?
Both of these things look like Rels is just tagging along with the lynch on me and not bothering to look at the possibility that I could be town.
Pretty happy to put my vote on him for now.
##Vote: Rels
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No one is talking about it but. altho me getting roleblocked can not be 100% confirmed.
-We know koshi had a roleblock and was going to use it
-he suspected me so fucking hard and I was the logical choice. His other suspects were likely track/shot targets so he wouldnt stack them
-theres at least one mafia team with 1 person left so im confirmed not on that team
-I cant be on ff's team because I could have saved him with my power on onegu the day kita claimed a red check on him
-no one has counterclaimed being roleblocked
= I am the most likely town in the game. not 100% confirmed but like 90%
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- if im mafia I would always be taking the shot im not that suspected or on the rng track list
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3. Rels
8. Tictock
12. Superbia
15. The Shining
17. sicklucker
21. CopCake
22. Palmar
Yea I'm pretty sure CopCake and Rels are the only 2 people here I'd really want to lynch today.
I did go through Superbia's filter and rather liked what I saw. His early game is much more like what I expected and he both shot mafia and is a good role to keep around.
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On January 31 2016 04:23 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2016 03:15 Rels wrote:
Thinking about it, I'm confirmed not the keir killer 'cause I'm Palmar's list with him.
Copcake is confirmed not keir killer 'cause she was tracked.
So who ?
Shining who is kinda useless but seems townie, and who Keir called probably town ? 1%
SL who keir called the last scum in his speculation post ? Maaaaaaybe but why over me / other valuable targets ? 5%
Palmar who is obvious town ? 0.1%
Superbia who is obvious town ? 0.1%
Unless I forgot someone it's 93.8% TT.
STATS CONFIRMED koshi roleblocked me last night dude I could not deliver scum kp
True. Then it's even more likely TT shot keir.
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40574
3998
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EPT
