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Actually let me propose the best course of action imo. I'm going to assume 5v1v1, since if we miss-lynch here in 4v2v1 I think we need to depend on mafia hitting mafia. I haven't actually gone over this world in depth, because tbh I don't want to live in this world (and I also don't think it would matter as to our lynch today).
So:
1. We lynch the shining today.
1a. We miss:
- It's 4v1v1.
1a-1 I shoot & miss:
- it's 2v1v1.
- If we have my shot in this scenario we have a lynch and a shot to hit exactly both of the mafia. Shit situation but doable if you assume I'm not the mafia. THEREFORE: Rels has to NOT be mafia, else I die during the night. Actually it's a super fucked up/interesting situation because we can literally still win going into the night in a 1v1v1. But eh? I think lynching + me hitting is the best chance we have in this scenario. If miss then I'm going into the night with 2 mafia and it's going to be WIFOM who shoots who all the way. Kind of offtrack here with thoughts but this would be a super silly but cool ending. I'd probably hold my shot.
- My argument was going to be that I have to shoot rels if we miss on the shining due to the fact that rels would never save me as mafia but 2v1v1 without a second KP from town actually means that town has to lynch town or sleep. Me dying makes Rels confirmed mafia so the other mafia would likely kill him during that night then. And town would have to hope mafia kills each other so lynching town in that scenario is actually best.
- Anyway I'd probably shoot Rels over palmar anyway at this point so whatever.
1a-2 I shoot & hit:
- 3v1. Pretty good. If I'm still alive we lynch that day + shot. Else sleep.
1a-3 I shoot & overlap with KP:
Meh? Some info for next day.
1b. We hit:
5v1
- Good shit
- I hold my shot I think
postnight- 4v1
- I should still be alive
- Lynch + my shot
2v1 worst case. I.e. 3 lynches. EZ.
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Think that checks out. Bit rambly towards the LYLO components of this game (which are when statistically played, fucking hilarious).
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On January 31 2016 05:54 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2016 05:51 Superbia wrote:
Like I went over some scenarios where we miss (and assuming it's 5v1v1), and me shooting seems like the best option, but it's still really bad. We will never know without the GB flip if its 5v1v1 or 4v2v1 and you'll probably end up shooting town anyway 
Eh? If we miss on you I'm pretty certain it'd be Rels. But it's probably just you.
What are your thoughts?
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I'm going to do some work.
Most important fact today:
At least 1 mafia in:
- Myself
- Rels
- Palmar
- The shining
I'm going to make a wild assumption and assume that disfo was with one of the others.
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Actually also somewhat (very) important:
Does the vanilla virus block factional KP (i.e. mafia KP)?
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On January 30 2016 22:21 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2016 09:26 The Shining wrote:On January 30 2016 09:16 sicklucker wrote:
3. Rels malcolm reynolds
8. Tictock garbage role or liar
12. Superbia I forget but obviously town
15. The Shining vig
17. sicklucker confirmed town or has a partner can never mathematically be lynched today
21. CopCake shovel
22. Palmar suspicious list guy
So thats where we are at 3. Can't confirm. 8. Confirmed BH roleblock on town Doc Damdred, Damdred lost a vote. 12. CPR Doc, confirmed on shooting Disfo. 15. Vig confirmed on Alot shot. 17. SL role confirmed on Onegu duel. 21. Confirmed on GB shovel. 22. Palmar confirmed Arrow shot. The only role not really confirmed is Rels, unless I missed him stopping a kp? You motherfucker don't post for dozen of hours but do'nt take the time to verify info before posting BS: Show nested quote +On January 28 2016 06:10 Rels wrote:On January 28 2016 05:50 Tictock wrote:
Does anybody recall if Dis or Rels claimed any of their night actions?
I'm gunna dig into their filters but I don't remember any claims from them. I don't want to reveal my charge count. I have one info though: either Palmar (bused to Damdred) or Superbia got attacked. So either double stack on Palmar or one prot on Superbia. I thought I would be able to know which one, but all my charges gets taken even if I protect the first person of my list, so I cannot know.
You're so feisty though as if it isn't common knowledge that I haven't been able to fully read or keep up with this game at times. Good tone to take with someone, really does a lot for tone. Unless you think I'm scum, then it might make a teeny bit more sensense. But your poe was TT, Cop, SL. So you're just salty to be salty. Cool.
On January 29 2016 18:17 Rels wrote:
I'm kinda not caring for the game since it's already won. Palmar Superbia Koshia and I are town. I will protect them all tonight, so they can't be killed; so the only possible kill out of the obvious townies is me, which:
1 - is the best kill among the obvious townies since some people suspects me
2 - only happens if disfo is scum anyway, since if he's town he protects me while I protect the other.
We're just going to CPR kill / lynch all the remaining person in the game until the win.
Kinda not caring when this game is getting close to the end isn't a town characteristic. This is more likely to come from scum being read as town and trying not to do too much to jeopardize that.
Meh I'm really gonna have to read this stupid long filter now.
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On January 31 2016 06:16 Superbia wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2016 05:54 The Shining wrote:On January 31 2016 05:51 Superbia wrote:
Like I went over some scenarios where we miss (and assuming it's 5v1v1), and me shooting seems like the best option, but it's still really bad. We will never know without the GB flip if its 5v1v1 or 4v2v1 and you'll probably end up shooting town anyway Eh? If we miss on you I'm pretty certain it'd be Rels. But it's probably just you. What are your thoughts?
My thoughts are every time you suggest lynching me, my townread gets a little weaker. My thoughts are you've spent a few posts today talking about lylo, numbers, setup, night actions that depend on a lot of moving parts and haven't explained what would make me scum, or Rels scum if I flip town. You are also certain that we are 5v1v1 when there are only 5 flipped scum and we don't know GBs alignment. You're putting a lot of thought and effort into something that could be misinformed from the very beginning.
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Since there is a real chance of us being in LyLo tomorrow I think I should use my final Ban today.
Blazinghand (New - TL Mafia Ban List)
You are Blazinghand, The Chosen, Wielder of the Sacred List, and He Who Guides The Newbie. Twice per game during the day phase (ability activates after the end of day), you may recommend that a player be banned. Unfortunately, you took over the banlist in the shadow of the Great GMarshal, He Who Sees All Things And Wields The Mighty Hammer, and your power is not absolute. The player you targeted may choose to either take a 'warning' (and be roleblocked for the following night phase and the following day phase) or 'sitout a game' (that player's vote during the following day phase is not counted). If the player chooses neither (either out of choice or because they are roleblocked) they will be BANNED. A banned player will have their vote stolen and added to your voting power for the following day.
Which is pretty meh, but should at least a bit more info tomorrow.
If the Banned person has a vote tomorrow you know they took the RB.
Maybe would be good on someone like Palmar, Shinging, or Cake since they should have no role related things to do, so unless they are mafia can take a RB, which can be verified the next day.
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Tbh I have no idea if that's a good way to use it, but was all I could come up with.
It's a really odd role.
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Vote Count - Day 4
Tictock (3): Palmar, Rels, sicklucker
Rels (0): sicklucker
Not Voted (4): The Shining, Tictock, Superbia, Copcake
At this time, Tictock is slated to be lynched.
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 4 ends in on 00:00 GMT (+00:00).
The voting thread is here.
Only votes there will be counted.
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On January 31 2016 06:27 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2016 06:16 Superbia wrote:On January 31 2016 05:54 The Shining wrote:On January 31 2016 05:51 Superbia wrote:
Like I went over some scenarios where we miss (and assuming it's 5v1v1), and me shooting seems like the best option, but it's still really bad. We will never know without the GB flip if its 5v1v1 or 4v2v1 and you'll probably end up shooting town anyway Eh? If we miss on you I'm pretty certain it'd be Rels. But it's probably just you. What are your thoughts? My thoughts are every time you suggest lynching me, my townread gets a little weaker. My thoughts are you've spent a few posts today talking about lylo, numbers, setup, night actions that depend on a lot of moving parts and haven't explained what would make me scum, or Rels scum if I flip town. You are also certain that we are 5v1v1 when there are only 5 flipped scum and we don't know GBs alignment. You're putting a lot of thought and effort into something that could be misinformed from the very beginning.
That's very true, the 5v1v1 is pure conjecture, but I tried putting together 5v2v1 worlds and it's so much harder to calculate the correct play because we don't guarantee KP reduction on a hit.
Also I've been kind of lazy with reads due to the size of the game and my role. I really don't feel like I have to elaborate on my gut-reads due to having KP. Don't need to convince no one of shit. :D
As for both you and rels:
I believe I had you as null early on in the game (which in this game is an automatic scum-lean) and I never shared Palmar's TR on you. I was kind of surprised to find your name as still alive in my roles-list doc (didn't know you were in the game), and, possibly most important of all, there's 1 scum between me, you, rels and palmar. And I think rels and palmar in particular have been wayyyy townier.
Rels:
Had a really really hard town read on him d0-d1. Has fallen off since then. Feel like his saves are actually a bit mehhhh. Especially with the Koshi death.. Despite that still think he's town because I kind of masoned with him d1. I don't give out mason easily.
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Actually who came up with the fact that the KP had to be on keir?
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Between me, palmar, the shining.
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That could've been an actual slip.
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Also TT, have partially read your plan and it might be useful to confirm a town or a mafia. Force them to take the roleblock and look at KP. Don't have time to look at all angles bc I really have to do some work now.
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I like the plan. Have to look at it in depth.
Be back later.
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I am here now
And why would i kill keirathi? -____- i mean if i was mafia i would not send actions and let people tinfoil but even that woulent even happen because a missed kill and stuff so yeah. And all game i havent said a fucking lie i am busy, wanted to quit didnt even pick a role and i let you use my kill. You asked me stuff I answer so if the case is "cake is useless and havent done shit" excuse me you are just wrong.
The keirathi thing means two things to me since i know i am town:
1.- mafia wanted to frame me
And
2.- mafia didnt want town to know i am town.
I am pretty much the easiest misslynch with all the players that are alive.
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Ok finally got around to trying to read Rels filter. I think he is my preferred lynch today still.
I focused on associative reads here because Rels is a strong team player who, especially in a game like this, would do his best to ensure his team has a solid chance at winning the game. Also these were the posts that stood out the most to me when reading through his filter.
Sorry if it's kinda rambling, I was adding and moving stuff around as I read, tried to clean it up a little.
This stuck out to me. It's a weird question and reaction Rels posed to Disformation, why was he worried about Dis not reading the thread and what does he conclude about him reading it? It's NAI information.
On January 21 2016 06:05 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2016 06:03 disformation wrote:On January 21 2016 06:00 Rels wrote:On January 21 2016 05:59 disformation wrote:On January 21 2016 05:57 Rels wrote:On January 21 2016 05:34 disformation wrote:On January 21 2016 04:35 Rels wrote:On January 21 2016 04:30 disformation wrote:On January 21 2016 04:23 Rels wrote:On January 21 2016 04:17 disformation wrote:
[quote]
[quote]
Seems like Watson is already taken. =/ Wait. How did you find out ? Huh? As I said here: On January 21 2016 03:51 disformation wrote:Hmm... would actually be really glad to take Watson instead of the traditional doctor. Saves me the trouble of figuring out if I am paranoid/weak/normal. Can I can I can I? :D Additionally there is tons of upside if Holmes and Moriarty are in the game and they should be imo. So I kinda love the idea of being Holmes and was about to submit that pick, when I decided to double check and make sure that no one else wanted to be watson. You know since I kinda don't want to end up as mysterious challenger. So I did a Strg+F on Watson and found out Breshke wanted him.  I need you to be around for a question, tell me when you're ready. sure. Also trying to catch up but the thread moves faster than I can read. @Palmar's plan: there are a few points where picks are like contested? Like breshke wanting to pick Watson, which could lead to FF being an ever doper MC. Still there ? Yeah. What's up? What was my reaction to Breshke wanting to take Watson ? Uh... I think you didn't like that idea at all first, cause you had a scum read on Breshke. Then you realized that it would be really easy to figure out if would be lying about the sanities of holmes and mortuary. Do you still think Breshke is scum? OK good p: checking if you really read the thread Yep I still think Breshke is scum
***Note to check Rel's Follow up reads on Dis***
On January 21 2016 21:57 Rels wrote:
disfo gonna filter Alot Onegu and Vivax wanna do this with me ?
Again, this friendly "Come do stuff with me" tone from Rels towards Dis. I may have passed it over but I didn't see any solid reasons for Rels to TR Dis.
This later on read looks more legit:
disformation => He helped town a lot before the picking phase deadline to make sure nobody overlapped. In particualr, he was concerned town got invesgative roles, which scum wouldn't like. He was OK taking doc which is a terrible role for scum. Finally, the excitement when he thought he found a scumslip with TT's RB claim was super townie.
All's fair in filter dives, some cred to Rels for this post D1. Suggesting 2 scum lynches right off. Also interesting to note for associations.
On January 21 2016 20:57 Rels wrote:
Gonna grab some lunch, then I will see who I want to lynch today. Having so much info only 12 hours into the day is soooo cool! Before filtering, I would lynch Vivax, Onegu (for both: kinda useless during the first phases, didn't cooperate during the number pick phase, didn't cooperate during the role pick phase and we don't know what they picked) and AlotSomuch (useless but trying to be nice). We'll see if that changes after I read their filters. (=
This hard townread on Kita kinda comes out of nowhere.
On January 21 2016 22:21 Rels wrote:
Palmar, kita is never mafia with the amount of organizing he's done (tier list + completing your plan). And if he is, he's getting killed anyway.
Will read Vivax filter then see what you wrote.
On January 21 2016 22:36 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2016 22:31 Palmar wrote:On January 21 2016 22:26 Rels wrote:On January 21 2016 22:23 Palmar wrote:
Like for me to believe Kita is town, I have to believe Kita is a dumbass. I don't think Kita is a dumbass. But you're a dumbass too, he made a lot of sense when he said FFA players should also pick roles so we're sure we have no overlap. You saying he sabotaged your plan was super wrong. yeah but that completely makes my plan useless because then we have no checks on mafia. But I'm not here to argue about the plan. The point is, I think he is mafia. The plan thing is very minor. I think his read progress on Vivax wasn't genuine. I think there is a disconnect between his initial role list contribution and his actual followup to that. I think there is no way he genuinely believes I'm mafia I think his filter is too short. I don't particularly think he has been very useful in figuring out mafia. Pretty sure you're wrong.
I pinged out that last post much earlier in the game, I still really hate it. Especially with Kita having flipped scum.
It's way too flippant, Rel's hasn't posted anything that would warrant a TR so strong he should be dismissing stuff like this if he is town.
Then this whole exchange happened.
On January 23 2016 07:35 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2016 07:27 Tictock wrote:On January 23 2016 06:55 Rels wrote:
TT tell me when you're around. I'm sorta around. Least checking in. Though at this point it looks like we have to lynch Vivax. Did you scumread kita when you said his list was cool ?
On January 23 2016 07:53 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2016 07:49 Tictock wrote:On January 23 2016 07:46 Rels wrote:On January 23 2016 07:43 Tictock wrote:On January 23 2016 07:41 Rels wrote:On January 23 2016 07:41 Tictock wrote:On January 23 2016 07:35 Rels wrote:On January 23 2016 07:27 Tictock wrote:On January 23 2016 06:55 Rels wrote:
TT tell me when you're around. I'm sorta around. Least checking in. Though at this point it looks like we have to lynch Vivax. Did you scumread kita when you said his list was cool ? Like I said it was just right time right place, didn't really matter his alignment. Why should it matter that I thanked him for something that happened to be useful to me? If he's scum I think it's more likely he'd make sure his list is near perfect. can you answer the question ? Yes and kinda no. More null Then why did you say Palmar's points against kita were valid not long before ? Like you even scumread me for brushing them off here: On January 22 2016 05:07 Tictock wrote:On January 21 2016 22:36 Rels wrote:On January 21 2016 22:31 Palmar wrote:On January 21 2016 22:26 Rels wrote:On January 21 2016 22:23 Palmar wrote:
Like for me to believe Kita is town, I have to believe Kita is a dumbass. I don't think Kita is a dumbass. But you're a dumbass too, he made a lot of sense when he said FFA players should also pick roles so we're sure we have no overlap. You saying he sabotaged your plan was super wrong. yeah but that completely makes my plan useless because then we have no checks on mafia. But I'm not here to argue about the plan. The point is, I think he is mafia. The plan thing is very minor. I think his read progress on Vivax wasn't genuine. I think there is a disconnect between his initial role list contribution and his actual followup to that. I think there is no way he genuinely believes I'm mafia I think his filter is too short. I don't particularly think he has been very useful in figuring out mafia. Pretty sure you're wrong. Aww Rels, and I was townreading you too. Why'd you have to go and blow off pretty valid points like this? So you must have thought there were super good points. Yet you nullread him ? I was disappointed in your response. If you disagreed with his points, why did you just blow it off? Cause I think kita is town and I don't think these points make kita scum. Apparently you did too, since you nullread him after that; if you don't think these points make kita scum, why do that matter to you ?
On January 23 2016 07:53 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2016 07:49 Tictock wrote:On January 23 2016 07:46 Rels wrote:On January 23 2016 07:43 Tictock wrote:On January 23 2016 07:41 Rels wrote:On January 23 2016 07:41 Tictock wrote:On January 23 2016 07:35 Rels wrote:On January 23 2016 07:27 Tictock wrote:On January 23 2016 06:55 Rels wrote:
TT tell me when you're around. I'm sorta around. Least checking in. Though at this point it looks like we have to lynch Vivax. Did you scumread kita when you said his list was cool ? Like I said it was just right time right place, didn't really matter his alignment. Why should it matter that I thanked him for something that happened to be useful to me? If he's scum I think it's more likely he'd make sure his list is near perfect. can you answer the question ? Yes and kinda no. More null Then why did you say Palmar's points against kita were valid not long before ? Like you even scumread me for brushing them off here: On January 22 2016 05:07 Tictock wrote:On January 21 2016 22:36 Rels wrote:On January 21 2016 22:31 Palmar wrote:On January 21 2016 22:26 Rels wrote:On January 21 2016 22:23 Palmar wrote:
Like for me to believe Kita is town, I have to believe Kita is a dumbass. I don't think Kita is a dumbass. But you're a dumbass too, he made a lot of sense when he said FFA players should also pick roles so we're sure we have no overlap. You saying he sabotaged your plan was super wrong. yeah but that completely makes my plan useless because then we have no checks on mafia. But I'm not here to argue about the plan. The point is, I think he is mafia. The plan thing is very minor. I think his read progress on Vivax wasn't genuine. I think there is a disconnect between his initial role list contribution and his actual followup to that. I think there is no way he genuinely believes I'm mafia I think his filter is too short. I don't particularly think he has been very useful in figuring out mafia. Pretty sure you're wrong. Aww Rels, and I was townreading you too. Why'd you have to go and blow off pretty valid points like this? So you must have thought there were super good points. Yet you nullread him ? I was disappointed in your response. If you disagreed with his points, why did you just blow it off? Cause I think kita is town and I don't think these points make kita scum. Apparently you did too, since you nullread him after that; if you don't think these points make kita scum, why do that matter to you ?
The whole thing just feels so agressive and overblown, like he wants me to back off that point due to being unsure on Kita myself. Never in this entire exchange (either with me or Palmar) does Rels ever try to explain his TR on Kita beyond "He helped organize things".
Oh and this in a large list post.
kita => )=
I got up to pg 19 in Rels filter but I'm pretty sure I'm not focusing very well anymore so I'm gunna stop there.
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Also, can people kindly get their heads out of their asses and stop sheeping an OMGUS case by a dead towny on me?
I made a response, so yell at me about that.
Read my filter and tell me why I'm scum.
Or maybe someone is actually good enough to figure out that it's really unlikely I'm scum?
Right now this is a sad excuse for a day given that we've got a fair bit of info because of the RB's on SL and me and the Watch/RB on Cake.
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EPT
