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Newbie Student Mafia XVIII - Page 68

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-01-08 09:58:54
January 08 2016 09:58 GMT
#1341
I also thought mderg was really fucking town and i have no idea why ppl scumread him.

And scott was not a good lynch. No way.
table for two on a tv tray
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
January 08 2016 10:01 GMT
#1342
On January 08 2016 18:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I also thought mderg was really fucking town and i have no idea why ppl scumread him.

And scott was not a good lynch. No way.

His filter was AFK + non commital observations. I know that's also how he plays town sometimes (for example ... that game =D), but he was a good D1 lynch IMO.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
January 08 2016 10:05 GMT
#1343
On January 08 2016 19:01 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2016 18:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I also thought mderg was really fucking town and i have no idea why ppl scumread him.

And scott was not a good lynch. No way.

His filter was AFK + non commital observations. I know that's also how he plays town sometimes (for example ... that game =D), but he was a good D1 lynch IMO.

I heavily disagree. While he is a really low quantity poster he was actually following up on his thought process all the game. Idk.. There is really nothing more to say on that, he was just consistent all the D1 unlike some other players.
table for two on a tv tray
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
January 08 2016 10:09 GMT
#1344
Maybe I just have a hard time with scott, 'cause I don't see any of that. I kinda agree with GB in that we maybe should stop lynching scott D1 though, and see what he does later; I'm pretty sure he has the record of number of lynch D1 ? p:
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
January 08 2016 10:12 GMT
#1345
Town was never going to win this game. You guys underestimate the influence of thread presence. Even if some of the townies got correct reads, the mafia just had a lot more presence and that alone can win you games. On top of that, especially NM played really well.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
January 08 2016 10:12 GMT
#1346
On January 08 2016 19:09 Rels wrote:
Maybe I just have a hard time with scott, 'cause I don't see any of that. I kinda agree with GB in that we maybe should stop lynching scott D1 though, and see what he does later; I'm pretty sure he has the record of number of lynch D1 ? p:

I don't think scott has ever been lynched in a game where i have been on D1, except for when he replaced Onegu in Drams and even then i didn't even think scott is scum, i thought Onegu was for his dumbass bussing theory and then fucking off.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
January 08 2016 10:13 GMT
#1347
On January 08 2016 19:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Town was never going to win this game. You guys underestimate the influence of thread presence. Even if some of the townies got correct reads, the mafia just had a lot more presence and that alone can win you games. On top of that, especially NM played really well.

Yes, this is definitely right.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-01-08 10:20:45
January 08 2016 10:20 GMT
#1348
The problem with scott is the same kinda problem that people have with VayneAuthority.

People don't interact with them a single bit. They just watch them post and at the EoD (or before) they decide "well you haven't posted anything meaningful now you die". It's an easy lynch for mafia, but usually town's fault. If you feel like someone isn't making conclusions / posting enough / discussing relevant matters -- guide them onto talking about what YOU want them to talk about (relevant matters). Interact with them.

In hindsight, scott had (after his earlier reads posts) these thoughts;
I think Onegu has good reads as town --> I think Onegu is town --> I wanna sheep him onto lynching Fidei.
wow.. wanted to lynch mafia.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-01-08 10:51:19
January 08 2016 10:45 GMT
#1349
In case TheCow had been here and sent in a check on N1 (and made a correct check) the game could have looked a way different though... That's one thing i disagree with you Artanis (obvs expecting that townies analyze the info correctly). Here is my opinion on the cop play;

The Final Vote Count on D1 is the following:
scott31337 (6): Irishbound, NocturneMage, mderg, GiygaS, GlowingBear, Fidei86
Fidei86 (3): Onegu, nooniansoong, scott31337
nooniansoong (1): Shapelog
GlowingBear (1): Kmatt

not voting (1): TheCow

Now the only reasonable check is the counter-wagon to scott, who has flipped town. It really is, because you want to figure out if mafia actually cared about the lynch or not. Here is why;

- Irishbound is most likely town in any case, as it's unlikely for mafia to push a mislynch (remember this is a NSM and he is a new player, no matter how experienced, new here). It just is.
- If you check Fidei and he turns out to be green, the vote analysis is completely useless, you can't tell any motivation.
- If you check someone else AND get a red check, nice, you found scum.
- If you check someone else AND get a green check, you got the same result as if you checked Fidei and got a green, except you can't tell any motivation (or lack of it) behind voting
- If you check Fidei and get a red, suddenly you know these things;
1) Fidei is scum
2) All people on Fidei at the EoD are most likely town
3) There is probably one mafia in NocturneMage/mderg/GiygaS/GlowingBear, really really likely at least one.
4) Probably one of off-wagons voters, Shapelog/Kmatt/TheCow (but you are TheCow so you know not you) is mafia.

Checking Fidei -- the pro's just outweigh the pro's of any other check and if he is red; suddenly you are in a MUCH better spot, and you should probably claim on D2 (at least when GB/Onegu are being lynched) -- town is really likely to be wrong here.
table for two on a tv tray
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
January 08 2016 13:29 GMT
#1350
On January 08 2016 18:26 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2016 07:51 GiygaS wrote:
May make a chrome extension this weekend to annotate posts like geript did for personal notes actually. Would anyone else be interested?

what does this mean? i am interested.

Show nested quote +
On January 08 2016 07:52 GlowingBear wrote:
On January 07 2016 23:57 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On January 07 2016 23:44 disformation wrote:
@GiygaS:
Don't be too hard on yourself. You had the right ideas in some cases and where like the only one really realizing that there was something really bad going on. But as I said, next game I want to see you having a bit more impact on the game and doing a bit more work, especially when you realize that something is off.
I wish you had tried to use your coaching QT a bit more though, but I can also understand if you where trying to learn the game on your own.

Yeah you tried and it wasn't that bad tbh. If not anything else at least you didn't get mislynched and well... none of the townies had really good reads based on the outcome of the game so...

Also idk... have you played mafia elsewhere in the meantime? I remember you in some TL Mafia [insert number here] game ~2-3yrs ago.


NAH

I had Kmatt on day1 and ive correctly suspected NM

true. it doesn't matter much though if everyone wants to kil lyou with fire and you get lynched.
and you voted for scott in the end...


True

I still don't understand why I was so scummy, but whatever
I'm adorable.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
January 08 2016 13:35 GMT
#1351
On January 08 2016 19:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:
The problem with scott is the same kinda problem that people have with VayneAuthority.

People don't interact with them a single bit. They just watch them post and at the EoD (or before) they decide "well you haven't posted anything meaningful now you die". It's an easy lynch for mafia, but usually town's fault. If you feel like someone isn't making conclusions / posting enough / discussing relevant matters -- guide them onto talking about what YOU want them to talk about (relevant matters). Interact with them.

In hindsight, scott had (after his earlier reads posts) these thoughts;
I think Onegu has good reads as town --> I think Onegu is town --> I wanna sheep him onto lynching Fidei.
wow.. wanted to lynch mafia.


Actually Rayn, people's problem with scott was his town read on Irishbound by saying a newbie could never play that way as Mafia when Irish repeatedly said he wasn't newbie at all
I'm adorable.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
January 08 2016 13:38 GMT
#1352
On January 08 2016 22:29 GlowingBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2016 18:26 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On January 08 2016 07:51 GiygaS wrote:
May make a chrome extension this weekend to annotate posts like geript did for personal notes actually. Would anyone else be interested?

what does this mean? i am interested.

On January 08 2016 07:52 GlowingBear wrote:
On January 07 2016 23:57 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On January 07 2016 23:44 disformation wrote:
@GiygaS:
Don't be too hard on yourself. You had the right ideas in some cases and where like the only one really realizing that there was something really bad going on. But as I said, next game I want to see you having a bit more impact on the game and doing a bit more work, especially when you realize that something is off.
I wish you had tried to use your coaching QT a bit more though, but I can also understand if you where trying to learn the game on your own.

Yeah you tried and it wasn't that bad tbh. If not anything else at least you didn't get mislynched and well... none of the townies had really good reads based on the outcome of the game so...

Also idk... have you played mafia elsewhere in the meantime? I remember you in some TL Mafia [insert number here] game ~2-3yrs ago.


NAH

I had Kmatt on day1 and ive correctly suspected NM

true. it doesn't matter much though if everyone wants to kil lyou with fire and you get lynched.
and you voted for scott in the end...


True

I still don't understand why I was so scummy, but whatever

[image loading]
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
January 08 2016 13:45 GMT
#1353
Man the game in which I don't play, there is a scumslip.
I would have loved pushing that scumslip and FINALLY BE RIGHT FOR ONCE ABOUT A SCUMSLIP
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-01-08 14:03:17
January 08 2016 14:02 GMT
#1354
On January 08 2016 22:35 GlowingBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2016 19:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:
The problem with scott is the same kinda problem that people have with VayneAuthority.

People don't interact with them a single bit. They just watch them post and at the EoD (or before) they decide "well you haven't posted anything meaningful now you die". It's an easy lynch for mafia, but usually town's fault. If you feel like someone isn't making conclusions / posting enough / discussing relevant matters -- guide them onto talking about what YOU want them to talk about (relevant matters). Interact with them.

In hindsight, scott had (after his earlier reads posts) these thoughts;
I think Onegu has good reads as town --> I think Onegu is town --> I wanna sheep him onto lynching Fidei.
wow.. wanted to lynch mafia.


Actually Rayn, people's problem with scott was his town read on Irishbound by saying a newbie could never play that way as Mafia when Irish repeatedly said he wasn't newbie at all

Idk why this should conclude in a scumread on Scott unless you think Irishbound is also mafia?
In which case you should lynch Irish first.

Like why does mafia townread a townie based on reasoning the townie themselves says is incorrect? It doesn't make any sense.
table for two on a tv tray
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-01-08 14:39:39
January 08 2016 14:35 GMT
#1355
On January 08 2016 18:55 Rels wrote:
Well I finished.

fidei was easily catchable but well protected by NM.
kmatt was super good starting D2. But his D1 should have get him lynched at some point (GB's points on him were super damning - especially this one).
NM was sooooo townie, especially late game! He was catchable with association on fidei (fidei keeping NM in his null or scumreads is a big indicator) and on little things, but mostly on POE. I felt GB & mderg were obvious town D1, so with those out of the POE the game would have been different. scott & Onegu were good lynches though, so with no mislynch to afford + cop not checking anyone (and being roleblocked!!!! fucking WP) game was super hard for town.

NM, being almost sure fidei was scum, here is why I scumread you. Gotta find that post in the obs QT.
Show nested quote +

Oh HTS I think you're right on NM.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/500060-newbie-student-mafia-xviii?page=30#590
As town, NM is very vocal about stuff that don't make someone mafia. Here, he is unsure to say if this "slip" is something worthwhile or not. Very different from usual.
If we assume fidei and NM are scum together, that makes sense though: NM wants to say the slip is a bullshit reason to call fidei scum, but he's also saying it could make fidei scum 'cause that's how scum partners usually talks about each other.

I think I'm reading the thread with bias confirming fidei + NM scum 'cause you seem so sure about it, but this jumped out to me.


I 100% agree on Fidei and Kmatt.
In my opinion NM did some strange stuff D3 that should have raised some eyebrows. Like scumreading someone because HtS did a similar play as scum ones. What kind of read is that?
The way he defended Kmatt against GB had some strange points, because GB's were pretty good and NM kinda refused to even consider the possibility of Kmatt being a good scum newbie.
He said D1 he "loathes to use meta". D3 he suddenly starts to read filters from old games. He also didn't follow up on a few of those filter read promises.

I am not sure if I only saw this because I had perfect information, but if town had more paranoia and I think in mylo you should have a bit of that, they should have looked at him more closely. I don't think they could have lynched him of that. But there wasn't even the tiniest bit of suspicion.

On January 08 2016 19:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Town was never going to win this game. You guys underestimate the influence of thread presence. Even if some of the townies got correct reads, the mafia just had a lot more presence and that alone can win you games. On top of that, especially NM played really well.


Yeah. Just look at some of the statistics I posted. Especially D3, when a bunch of town where dead, the scum team was in full control of the thread. Activity is important. It just does not mean that the active persons are town per default.
Additionally when I saw the night actions the scum team submitted I was like "okay this is 100% over". Before that I had a bit of hope that they would maybe catch Fidei or Kmatt.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
January 08 2016 15:06 GMT
#1356
I've really enjoyed everyone pointing out how badly I played. It has been an enjoyable process.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-01-08 15:16:09
January 08 2016 15:14 GMT
#1357
On January 09 2016 00:06 Fidei86 wrote:
I've really enjoyed everyone pointing out how badly I played. It has been an enjoyable process.

Why do you think you played bad?
You didn't get lynched. You guys got a flawless victory. People have pointed out you were catchable, it's advice to townies, not saying you did play bad.

EDIT: It's not like you played against obs QT or anyone not in the game. Against the people in the game you played as good as you had to. Not bad.
table for two on a tv tray
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
January 08 2016 15:18 GMT
#1358
On January 09 2016 00:06 Fidei86 wrote:
I've really enjoyed everyone pointing out how badly I played. It has been an enjoyable process.


Awww. I wub you. <3

Problem is that between MafiaMage's incredible improvement and Kmatt's surprisingly good performance in his first game ever, you stick out a bit. xD

And town didn't even manage to catch you. So there is that.
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5184 Posts
January 08 2016 15:24 GMT
#1359
I been reading bit by bit on a tablet i acquired, sadly i am awake 3 hours at a time max. till meds knock me out. I have skimmed the mafia QT and read the End game discussion.

Wp to scum. I need to really stop being the mafia's advocate (Was in nut with TT and TS, and a bit here with Kmatt and NM) Prob. should take on a lone wolf playstyle as i feel it suits me more.

Also, should really start cutting back on spam. I think this game it was ok due to low actively + it being D1. However, it is worth noticing how the spam actually makes mafia want to mislynch me instead of NK'ing me. I feel like i could somehow develop a stat. around this, especially as blue. Idk, i need to up my content to post ratio though and be more decisive with reads early game.

Also need to work on everything that was the take away kita said.

GG wp.
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
January 08 2016 15:24 GMT
#1360
On January 09 2016 00:06 Fidei86 wrote:
I've really enjoyed everyone pointing out how badly I played. It has been an enjoyable process.

<3
Obv you did something good since your team won without a scum lynch!
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