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TL Mafia LXXIII: The Nutcracker - Page 13

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 05:11 GMT
#1360
On December 20 2015 14:07 Tubesock wrote:
Got kit Kat. I opened kit Kat. Was role check. Vivax claimed/crumbed cop. Returned roleblocker.

On phone so quote sucks. But I said "Vivax Dies day 3, C u later"

Cu is copper is cop. Dies day 3 is a reference to Star Wars with anakin/dearth Vader. As in Vivax check returns cop or something else so the Vivax question dies.


Ok.... well i can add to this with my WoT in a bit (2 hours....). It is not about Vivax though.

Bolded is best hiddeness for a message ever. I do not know if this is just you being funny or not.
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 05:12 GMT
#1361
On December 20 2015 14:09 Tubesock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 20 2015 14:07 Shapelog wrote:
Like are you claiming a role or what?


Read the first two sentences again.


Yeah i posted this 6 seconds after you posted present.

also wanted to see if you claim a role that A. didn't exist or B. didn't make sense. Was too dead on for a Clara check so i wanted to see.
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 05:14 GMT
#1363
You should of posted it TS on page 66 so i would of gotten the star wars refence. Order 66, ankin death = third movie
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 05:17 GMT
#1364
On December 20 2015 14:13 Tubesock wrote:
you going to vote Vivax or what?


Wait till my big ass WoT comes out and you see why i am not voting Vivax. I got my own info i am working off in that regards lol.
Also because there is a chance you are mafia BSing a present results. So i like to post my case since this is basically Lylynch

"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 06:04 GMT
#1367
On December 20 2015 14:19 Tubesock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 20 2015 14:17 Shapelog wrote:
On December 20 2015 14:13 Tubesock wrote:
you going to vote Vivax or what?


Wait till my big ass WoT comes out and you see why i am not voting Vivax. I got my own info i am working off in that regards lol.
Also because there is a chance you are mafia BSing a present results. So i like to post my case since this is basically Lylynch



no worries. This is a big deal and we have like 40 hours left.


yeah that is why i am involving math/probability in my case, covering all angles
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 07:13 GMT
#1368
TT are u on?
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 07:13 GMT
#1369
I really hope you are lol. For the sake of my WoT lol
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 07:32 GMT
#1370
Well Comrades! TT is one sly motherfucker or one really really really really unlucky miller.
Hes Scum!

He visted Kush last night.

And yes, i am claiming the blue role of Fritz Stahlbaum, I am a one-time tracker (since mechanics state a role can be one-shot two shot or mutishot). It is funny how i got this piece of info btw. I misunderstood my role haha. I thought i see who Vists the person i was TRACKING not the other way around. You can thank that misunderstanding when TT flips mafia

1st reason why he is scum over unlucky Miller: Probability
Math! the greatest weakness of guess who games!

Let us obverse the natural and non-natural (human mafia influence.)

Natural:
lets say the set up of the game was like this: 2-3 blue roles, 3 vt, 2-3 millers, 2-3 wanders, 3 scum.
Best chance TT gets miller is 3/13
Chance of visting Kush last night 1/9
Natural chance (random shot basically) of mafia killing kush the same night: 1/9
3 * 1 * 1 = 3
13 * 9 * 9 = 1053
So a natural chance of all that happening is 3/1053 or 1/351 or .28 % Of ever happening!

But, I can hear you say (or TT at least) what about human mafia? They are surly not ever going to randomly shot someone! that be unreasonable! and that is true.... But there is way we can roughly calculate the non-natural chance that mafia would shot Kush last night. Patterns.

So far 2/3 of the night kills by mafia have been second hand town members. What do i mean by second hand? townies who have lack luster mafia cases and slash or low content. Only Koshi has broken this rule. So we can calcule with this pattern who is mafia target last night:
TS: heck no with that Rels case does he fit in. (might be mafia...)
Giygas Khan: No, he did that big case on me, and a few smaller, but good scum cases/posts analyzes.
Damred: not a single real case past D1, and that wasn't even big. +1 (might be mafia)
TT: Doesn't matter, hes mafia, he would be shooting, so subtract one from the bottom. But if we are calling him a miller, then no
Kush: Check +1
Koshi: Nope..... Mafia probuly killed him for town cred (more on that later) Lets say mafia already knew they were going to kill him so we will exclude him to give TT the best chance here.
Me: Hell no, I been their biggest advocate (again later on)
Surkit: Yes, but i think he is mafia along with TT.
LS: pretty meh, not enough to be out of this logic : +1
Vobby: checkish +1, if i was scum, might as well lynch him and get cred at this point though. So for the sake of it (and since everyone else is calling him mafia I put him with the mafia team for this)

So 3/6 or 1/2 of the people were up to be shot by mafia last night.

3 * 1 * 1 = 3
13 * 9 * 2 = 234
So 3/234 or 1/78 or 1.2 % chance of it happening.
1.2% vs a .28 % for innocent miller to be caught going to a dead person's home. Awful chances of miller aren't they? So if he is mafia it is a 98.8% non natural chance and a 99.72 natural chance that he was visiting for mafia business.

Go ahead and fight me if you think he was just visiting Kush for a drink on the night he died. Go ahead, i got math.

2nd reasoning: TT has done nothing that makes sense as mafia.

I bet you read that and went "What?" how can you claim someone is mafia when they done nothing that makes sense.

I think i told Damred best why when he posted this:
On December 18 2015 08:53 Damdred wrote:
Let me make it clear why I think Rels is town from that exchange specifically.

1) Mafia as a whole have a great sense of wanting to keep good apperances in thread. This comes from muddying pushing somewhat easy lunches avoiding hot topics. Most of this comes from not wanting to disturb waters and draw attention.


On December 18 2015 09:20 Shapelog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 18 2015 08:53 Damdred wrote:
Let me make it clear why I think Rels is town from that exchange specifically.

1) Mafia as a whole have a great sense of wanting to keep good apperances in thread. This comes from muddying pushing somewhat easy lunches avoiding hot topics. Most of this comes from not wanting to disturb waters and draw attention.



1. So your saying "typically, mafia is more quiet then town and meh pushs easy targets." Ok, that makes sense. But how does that factor in. Can't Anyone decide not to follow the mafia's golden rule? How does that really make sense? just because 75% of people follow a logic makes the 25% all the more deadly. Idk, maybe it is because when i gotten mafia/scum in RL mafia games i play exactly the same.



1st off my biggest issue with this and TT is that it is hard for him to "Trend waters" as Damred claim mafia should do. Is that that is Exactly why everyone scum read TT at the beginning! Just like koshi, if he doesn't live up to his "town play" he is auto scum in people eyes. So he has to do these big reads and cases. Hes got to put up the show, to be believe as town. And that's it. It is like something known as security theater, it is not actual security, it is just a show of security like behavior and actions that makes everyone feel safe. That is what he is doing here. Lets go threw the list:

Rik case: So TT enters the game after much inactiveness, (maybe planned) and comes in and has a magically same theory i had about Rik. About his hard ass town read on me. Everyone wrote it off as tinfoil basically, except him. Tell me, why in the world would mafia come into the game, see people are questioning he's side, and instead of posting a bunch of stuff and posting. He just jumps on this. He could easily saw my theory and jump on. You can how this actually HELPS a mafia.

Let me run it again, nearing end of D1, before wagons really from. TT sees votes on him, realizes that no one paid attention to his Rik post for the most part, and is discussing lynching him. Makes a relative rushed post, and gets into a conversation with Riks. Everyone points out his post is rushed, so he does something unexcepting, he votes for Giyga Khan. At that point, he wasn't even really talked about in the terms of being scum. Well then people scum read him for wasting his vote. I can image at this point he was desperate. He knew the two wagons were town and town. Damred (who maybe is his partner) does shenanigans and he has to vote one or the other to avoid sus. about him voting GiygaS Khan. And hammers GB because "well i am sus. might as well do something more sus. so i look town". Then to give him more cred, he goes off me going hard onto Rik. then kills Rik.

Koshi Vote:
pretty self explaining. Knew he would be town and that a fellow team mate had a gun. Maybe onegu is with him lol.

Kush kill:
So here we are. The info that got me writing this WoT in the first place. But why would the person kill the person he just scum reads? Duh for the cred.
On December 17 2015 08:46 kushm4sta wrote:
So that's got to look good for me right? A townie saved me.


It is different then from when Kush said he was more townie because Rik die. Remember how everyone thought this was a WIFOM move by mafia to cast sus. on me and kush? And everyone told Kush it was NAI? Kush didn't scum read Rik, in fact, he sided with rik. Compare this too:

On December 20 2015 06:01 Tictock wrote:
So Shape posted this, which I think is rather good.

Show nested quote +
On December 19 2015 05:11 Shapelog wrote:
Ok i gone through his filter. 1st thing i want to bring up is his Rit town read.

On December 14 2015 14:01 kushm4sta wrote:
hello dear friends. I was not expecting this game to start so quickly. The number of potential signups made me think this was a large game and that it would start nearer to christmas.

Should I ask for replacement? hmm no I think I would rather just piss everyone off with my minimal activity.

I'm going to placeholder on ritoky because i see his name up there and I recall him posting pics of miley cyrus.

On December 14 2015 23:22 kushm4sta wrote:
Did a quick control-f for my name.
No, Koshi, I will not be useless. This level of activity looks like it will be quite manageable for me to keep up with.
Yes, GB,I do deserve your vote at this point in time. I hope to put some time into this game at lunch.

All I can say now is ritoky is obviously town, which is funny because I'm currently voting him.

On December 15 2015 04:16 kushm4sta wrote:
On December 15 2015 04:06 Sukrit wrote:
Can you tell me why ritoky is townie kush? I have him completely null is there something you are seeing that I am not?

his long post where he sounds paranoid

On December 15 2015 03:38 GlowingBear wrote:
On December 15 2015 02:56 kushm4sta wrote:
On second thought after rereading his filter I'm not so sure I want to put gigas on my scum list yet. I will wait to see what his scumreads look like.

Gb, I'll vote for him when I get a chance. Unless he does something townie.


After re reading a 1 page filter? Wow that seems a lot to rethink huh


I don't what you mean here. What is scummy about what I said precisely?


I find his town read awkward. Like his main point for it was because Rik sounded paraiod in is post (which he didn't seem to me.) It is almost like he was trying to find a reason to town read him.
On December 17 2015 08:46 kushm4sta wrote:
So that's got to look good for me right? A townie saved me.

And then says "The person i was town reading died, that good right?". It's weird IMO. Rational Shapelog says this is a coincidence, but irrational shapelog says this is mafia indicate. And that Surkitengo and Kush planed to kill Rik from day one.

Second point, Him and GiygaS khan:

On December 17 2015 02:46 kushm4sta wrote:
On December 15 2015 02:58 GiygaS wrote:
I'll reread tt filter and see, but all I have is null or town reads on everyone, except a tiny lean on Koshi from meta that I haven't even experienced.


This read on koshi makes me think he's town. It is a very specific type of read. Very nuanced. Scum don't have nuanced reads like that.

On December 17 2015 02:57 kushm4sta wrote:
Current scum reads are on tt (again, I really don't like that list of townread retraction with NAI stuff) and shape (holy shit that random asslist in to weird sukrit fos). Might get some more/less post-filters, but we'll see.


His scumreads look believable and so does his case on rels. Not saying they are right or wrong but they look like townie reads

So he is town reading GiygaS Khan.
On December 18 2015 19:53 kushm4sta wrote:
Really not impressed with that exam schedule post. I'm sure it's true but the pressure want even on him. Scummy because he wants to take advantage of an irl excuse to its fullest. He could have just said I have exams.

Onegu no one wants your steam of consciousness. That does not help find scum.

Then calling his RL reasoning scum sus. He goes against all his defense for GiygaS Khan and calls him scummy. I feel this is a townie post. I can't really explain why, But run the case where they are a team. Why even post this? For town cred and bring sus. on a team mate. Heck lets look through this in the eyes of a kush as mafia and GiygaS as town, why go against one the people your town reading and bring sus. onto your self? To try to get a mislynch when everyone is set on either Rels or Vobby? Thats why i think this is a townie post, because it makes in a mafia shoes IMO.

Point 3: me
Scum->town->Town with chance of mafia
What do i mean?
On December 19 2015 01:20 kushm4sta wrote:
Here's some tinfoily stuff.


On December 17 2015 09:36 Shapelog wrote:
Plus killing the person who is defending you seems like only a thing i do.

ritoky defended shape.

Do not think my actively is actually any alignment indicating for me. Would of been the same activeness roughly if I rolled mafia. Except maybe a bit thought out and better fleshed posts since i had a team to relay things. But then i prob. post dumb, dull, crap time to time because they weren't on lol.


what if shape is giving himself away here just as a little wink to himself

Again, why would mafia go after someone else at this point. Plus i am a sucker for tinfoil


So in conclusion, Kush is prob. town but as scummy posts.


His conclusion is rahter mixed, prob town but with scummy posts?

Looking at Kush's vote D2.
Show nested quote +
On December 19 2015 01:21 kushm4sta wrote:
gonna placeholder vivax bbl at lynch

Show nested quote +
On December 19 2015 02:39 kushm4sta wrote:
On December 19 2015 02:36 Koshi wrote:
On December 17 2015 10:33 Tubesock wrote:
On December 17 2015 10:12 Shapelog wrote:
On December 17 2015 09:58 Tubesock wrote:
On December 17 2015 09:45 Shapelog wrote:
On December 17 2015 09:36 Tubesock wrote:
On December 17 2015 08:02 Shapelog wrote:
Welp, That happen.


That's funny shit.

I'm going to admit I don't really understand much of your big list post. Why do LS and Damdred have to be on the same team? Why can't they be budding the other? You seem to tie them together but you have Damdred more towny than LS. I feel the opposite. I think LS has added more thought to the game. The only thing Damdred did I think is towny is scum Rels and that's probably just because Rels cased him. Can you more explain your town read on Damdred?

The rest of your associative reads, seems they all preclude that every shitfight 2 players have here are town vs mafia. I read this post and thought you don't think town fights town. That's not true is it?


I'm starting to rethink my position on damdred. Earlier on in the EoD, i posted it didn't make much sense if he was mafia and the wagons were both town to do it. Why draw the attention onto himself? But i'm starting to see what Koshius and other people are saying about him. I will look at him in Dark tournament and compare his town game from that to here.

And no town does fight town time to time (Should know from TT and Vobby wagons from Haunted mansion). Thanks for bringing this up. I ponder about it with kush. Like it can see it from both sides of the flip. Idk, i just posted that I won't be tunneling the mafia vs town stuff on him for the time being,

You been quiet btw. Go any ideas about anything? list, scums teams, anything?


My last list post I posted before going to bed 10 hours ago is essentially unchanged. Rels is now lower. Ritoky I should put in green but to be funny I'd keep him lower than Koshi because he didn't use Caps Lock or even held his shift key like a real baller.

So uh apparently you missed my last couple of posts.


Yeah i did miss it. Just looked into your filter and found #719 (your list). I remember seeing the case about you made against Rels now. I didn't really paid attention once it got to the town/mafia meta Rels part, since i'm not the one who should make/back up a meta case. And decided to come back to it later and keep pushing/tunneling. Will add Rels filter from dark tournament also to my read list tonight. I read the post now, But i going to reread what he said during the time he called you scum.


My town/mafiaRels isn't really all that about meta. I mean it IS but it's not like necessarily Rels specific. Hard to explain. I've seen Rels in like 3 games. He was try hard and forceful in all, both as mafia and town. I respect his play, I think he's a strong player. It's not a meta read where it's like "Well, X person uses 15 smiley faces per paragraph, and this game she's doing 5" It's more like mafia Rels doesn't HAVE to go after it all the time. But town Rels basically does.

In any case, disregard the meta bit. Do you think he's solving the game or attacking easy targets or only people who look at him? We can argue the semantics if Damdred is an easy target or not later. I'm even willing to concede Damdred is no easy target. My point still stands.

Do you like this read Kush? Is it legit?


I don't know about rels.
There Tube is using shit meta. I don't think it's a Scummy read tho

Show nested quote +
On December 19 2015 02:44 kushm4sta wrote:
Rels Damdred ls Gigas vivax are all on my maybe list

Show nested quote +
On December 19 2015 02:54 kushm4sta wrote:
Yah I'm going over rels filter again now. I think I could lynch him.


Is pretty poor reasoning. And that's a pretty long maybe list for all the townreading he was doing earlier on...

Kush might well be Mafia here.


Then Kush dies. The night TT calls him scum, magically he visits the place with at best a 1.2% chance roughly as a miller? And the night before, digs up my read on kush which practically said "This guy is town, but he does have a few scummys posts" which clearly implies that they aren't big enough to make me think he was mafia. Then pulls up irrelevant D2 garage filter from Kushs filter to call him scum.

Why would he do this as mafia? Because that has been his entire plan from the beginning! And it work so good to, I mean if it wasn't for my stupid mistake i would of not even have knew. But everything makes sense now. But it is time to drive home the "mafia is being obvious mafia to try to seem town" claim.

3rd reason: His trouble, dumbtell posts.

On December 19 2015 08:14 Tictock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 19 2015 08:11 Koshi wrote:
Damdred/TT/Vivax

gg wp


Yea kus I'm fucking mafia here bussing all my teammates.

You are the fucking king of Nonsense Koshi.

And why the hell are you only talking in terms of Teams when we haven't lynched mafia yet?

Gah, it's like you want me to tunnel you.


Idk about Damdred (I don't think really he went hard after damdred tbh, more like "his play makes no sense! again") about about Vivax. Tell me why the hell mafia at this point shouldn't get rid of him if he is scum? Because he is a team mate? It is way to hard to defend his crap. It seems too good that mafia would just let one of their own get lynch without some plan. And guess what, the other two TT and ???? are doing just that, to get cred. Mafia will have too at this point either come out and lie about a role or just let him get lynch. But if Vivax is town (which according to TS could be a 50/50 right now bewteen mafia and town RB) then it is easy winnings right now. Keeping vivax alive as possible has been mafia key goal. No one except LS i think even glace at my post D2 when i keep bringing up Vobby. Why not keep town Vivax alive as long as possible. I still think he is scum, but honestly a coinflip right now (if what TS is saying is true, which for all i know could be mafia trying to influence voting) At our last lynch is super fucking dicey

Dead Koshi post:
On December 20 2015 11:56 Tictock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 20 2015 09:43 Shapelog wrote:
On December 20 2015 09:36 LightningStrike wrote:
anyone that is a vig or had the present you need to claim now.


A. We do not have a vig as non of the roles in blue are vigs.

B. If person was town with the present of the gun they would almost 100% of the time kill Vobby. This is why Mafia had the Gun


This 100%.

I know I would have shot Vobb... Vivax if I had had the chance. Even after that looking into Kush's poor reasoning vote onto Rels.

This pretty much clears Damdred too based on his D1 vote, I don't think mafia would try to start shenannies when it's town v town like that.

I think Vivax is the obvious lynch today.

However the day is still young and I think Koshi has a really strong chance at being mafia with Vivax.

So

##Vote: Koshi

This is prob. NAI but is worth mentioning. Easy knowing that koshi is dieing to post this after day to basically be town. How does mafia forget who they are killing? Excellently, that is why he is mafia. Sees my post about vig and gun, Somehow misses the who conversation with LS about asking someone to claim up to who shot koshi (or maybe kush and TT had gun lol, no wait makes no sense) Skips Night flips and posts a koshi lynch. Because it seems townie. But this is his biggest dumbtell all game for the "obivous mafia being town" plan.

Hell lets ponder if a town killed koshi last night. By his skimmyness alone, to not even look at who died. seems like a normal scum move. Wait....He HAD TO READ THE DAY CYCLE POST BECAUSE HE KNEW KUSH DIED! HOW IN THE HELL DID HE MISS KOSHI? Maybe skimming through to see if his night kill got healed!


And you know what is funny? I FUCKING BROUGHT IT, SO DID EVERYONE ELSE! MAFIA TOO OBVIOUS? NO THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE. I mean give me your 1st reason that you ever thought of in this game that TT was town? Was it a town read? scum case? No, it was because it was posting like a mad man trying to get everyone to say "thats our boy" and it fucking work! Damm......

Conclusion:
Which one do you feel more comfortable with? A almost 99% gaurtreed scum or a 50/50 scum? Pure probulbilty says that TT only has a 1.2 % of rolling town at this point. Vivax still has 50%! at this point.

My money is on the 99% scum
God i was so lucky
##Vote: TicTock

I can not believe you betrayed me tinfoil buddy you even killed the new member.
Also if TS is mafia he fucked you over baldly because of a present call.
Also Thanking my dumbness and my misunderstanding of the role lol.
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 07:46 GMT
#1371
30 mins behind posting deadline thou. Eh it is 2:41 am here in NC. Might sleep

Sooo if anyone is on, ask questions or marvel in my probability.Honestly thank my dumbass for misunderstanding my role tbh.

Like Tictock here is best lynch....99% basically vs TS present info that gives a 50/50 lynch for Vobby. Which one would you pick knowing there is no more mistakes. No more mislynchs....

Put your faith into the light, and lynch the swine! I made my case Comrades. Now we wait until next day, to where i can see three wagons. Mine, TT, and Vobby's. You know which on i be on.

Also I am special, i am only Blue role that has reveal lol. Think koshius meation something about this lol.
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 07:50 GMT
#1372
Really stoke too to hear my buddy, Mr.Ticktock, to respond. Also just realized that i decided to follow him during my drunken slur. So Drunken shapelog is the true hero today

Lets raise a pint for the lass !

I should get drunk more often this game.


Also i like to point out, he is the only player giving out posts. To me. So he practically fucked himself trying to look town. Hell the donation got me scared that TT might be mafia a long time ago.

Really fucking hope we have a doc tonight. Would be amazing if Vobby is town rb and rb the KP from mafia lol
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 07:56 GMT
#1373
Hell lets say their was 100% chance mafia would go after kush last night

3 * 1 * 9 =27
13 * 9 * 9 =1053

27/1053 or 1/39 or a 2.56 % that TT is still mafia lol.

Like TT is the most unlucky miller if he is one lol. No way in hell that at BEST chance of being town is 2.56% vs 97.44% he isnt getting lynch today.

Like anyone who doesn't lynch him is either dumb or mafia
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 07:57 GMT
#1374
"that TT is still mafia" -> "that TT is still miller" for last post
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 14:38 GMT
#1382
^yeah Ls wander

Damm damdred "parmar" has fucked over my roles
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 14:51 GMT
#1383
On December 20 2015 18:28 GiygaS wrote:
Fuck it, im not gonna sleep right now anyway. Let's assume you are telling the truth in your claim that you saw TT go to Kush's last night. There are multiple reasons this could happen:
- TT is blue (Doubt there's two trackers, and it cant be doc or jailer so either rb, or detective)
- TT is mafia (i.e. he used KP)
- TT is wanderer (i.e. Chocolate)
- TT got a gift of gun and used it on kush (NAI, very unlikely not even going to bother)
- TT got a non gun gift and used it on kush (NAI)


Note that these most likely won't add up to 1 since we're ignoring/fubbing a bunch of things. This is incredibly shady math and I hate myself for doing it, but it's better than the one above so I'll make the sacrifice.

Let's say there were 2-3 blue roles in the game. Save you, that means there's 1-2 left. We'll add an additional multiplier based on the specific blue role he had to get (1/4 since we'll ignore tracker). We'll also assume that if he is blue he purposefully visited kush.
P(TT is blue) = 0.03125 - 0.0625

Now we know there are 3 mafia. Then the chance mafia chose him to use kp is 1/3. (Assuming the mafia wanted to kill kush)
P(TT is mafia) = 0.125

With our assumption of 1-2 Blue, and 3 mafia. There are 3-4 greens left. Additionally apply odds of him getting chocolate (we'll say 1/4 again) and of him visiting kush (1/9).
P(TT is chocolate) = 0.01042 - 0.01389

We'll say there were 2-3 gifts handed out in general (out of the 13 players). For our purposes, the gifts that apply here are rolecheck, watcher, and visiting the person who gets nightkilled (this one is important). For the first two, odds are 1/9 he would visit kush. For the third, odds of him visiting kush would be 100%.
P(TT got a non-gun gift and used it on kush) = 0.02686 - 0.040293

Sum range: 0.19353 - 0.241683

"Actual" probability (just much closer) of each:
- TT is blue (Doubt there's two trackers, and it cant be doc or jailer so either rb, or detective) 12.9% - 32.3%
- TT is mafia (i.e. he used KP) 51.7% - 64.6%
- TT is wanderer (i.e. Chocolate) 4.3% - 7.2%
- TT got a gift of gun and used it on kush (NAI, very unlikely he wouldn't shoot vivax. Not even going to bother) ~0%
- TT got a non gun gift and used it on kush (NAI) 11.1% - 20.8%

Again, these are very rough, but closer.

Sleep time.


Yeah this is roughly correct. What i get for doing a subject that i hate at 2:00 am

But do you not, math wizard, have to instead factoring now out of people left (X/8), have to factor the chances of him getting wander or blue role from X/13 because that is how many roles there are?

For the gifts though. Do you not have to add the probability of him getting the gift in the first place (which at best is 3/13)?I know they can be given to other players, but let said they weren't. Heck, do you not have to factor the chance of him getting wanderer from set-up (again 3/13 bast case) and * it against the chance he visted kush (1/9)? If not then that is my mistake. But it makes sense, (at least in my mind) to multiple the chance he got wanderer * the chance he visted kush.

Also supposedly the Role-check was used by TS. so two presents if he didn't lie.

And let say TS is correct and that maybe, just maybe, vivax is town rb. then their is a 1/13 to a 2/13 chance (since i am blue) of him from set-up and time the muti. of 1/4 like you said. comes down to a 1.92% - 3.84% chance once you add the chance of even getting the blue role from start.

You know what, i am just going to redo my math for all the points you pointed out except with the x/13 chance of getting it blah blah blah factored in.

gettting chocolate:
3/13 (chance he got it) * 1/10 (chance he visted kush last night) = 2.30%

Gifts:
So 1/13 chance of getting a present. then X/7 chance it is present.

TT got gift of gun: Let just say he did have gun and shot kush (even though that would be crazy) 1/13 (of getting present) * 1/7(getting present of gun) * 100 to convert it to percent so 1.09%
TT got other two gifts(watcher and stuff): 1/13 * 2/7 = 2.08%
TT got gift of garlic (or the one that lets you vist night kill): 1.09%

(And i know who he visted with a "gift" so)


So for me with factoring the 3/13 in got:
Blue chance: 1.92% -3.84%
Getting chocolate: 2.30%
Got the two gifts: 2.08%
Mafia chance stolen from you: "- TT is mafia (i.e. he used KP) 51.7% - 64.6%"
Other possibility: 20% roughly

so roughly 80/100 percent is here. And this is just raw probability. I think i can find the last 20%

Blue chance: 1.92%-3.84%
Getting chocolate: 2.30%
Got the two gifts: 2.08%
Mafia : 71.7% - 84.6 % (20% can only go one place )

But hey, might be wrong with using the initial X/13 role getting logic. But to me, it doesn't make sense using X/8 for role prob. since it doesn't change from the X/13chance.

Also you mess up. 1/10 chance instead of 1/9 for who could be targeted last night.
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 14:57 GMT
#1384
And lets factor him getting a KP mafia role (mafia prob. has at least one, framer or rb):
2/13 * 100 = 15.38%
Then the 1/2 chance he is killing (1/1 IMO if he is the child) so 50%
Knew they were going to kill Kush 100%

You know what.... I am not the one who needs to do math when only sleeping for 4 hours.
Just wanted to bring up the X/13 chance vs X/8 chance
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 15:02 GMT
#1386
I let the guy who has a degree in it deal with it.
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 15:06 GMT
#1388
On December 21 2015 00:02 Damdred wrote:
The dangerous thing here is tube I think.

Right now offering vivax up as tribute to carry the game is a real play I would think about playing. Its not 100% but I want tube to answer me why he checked vivax over say the more contested people in the thread? For example onegu myself or even gig would offer much more information than vivax who was basically lock scum after his eod.

And the Tt matter I think we lynch vivax and then we lynch Tt I'll read Tt filter and then give a better opinion.


Yeah that was my same thought process when i saw his present post. That is why it is fun to think about, because if he is mafia that would mean he just gave Vivax a 50/50 when everyone just came into today ready to vote him.

You know TS all game has been saying "Well if you can't be reading his post, your scum?" Like he didn't want me to post my edit for my 1st WoT when the quotes broke. This is prob. NAI though at the moment.
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 15:07 GMT
#1389
On December 21 2015 00:04 GiygaS wrote:
Shape look up the monty hall problem


Is that the one with the doors and about you have a better chance if you pick door number two or switching doors or something?
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 15:13 GMT
#1391
Like the one where you pick one door out of the million and all but the one you pick and one are opened to reveal nothing?

Then compare the chances it is 1/999,999 that your door you pick is right vs 1/2 that the other door is right.

That one right?
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
December 20 2015 15:17 GMT
#1392
On December 21 2015 00:13 Shapelog wrote:
Like the one where you pick one door out of the million and all but the one you pick and one are opened to reveal nothing?

Then compare the chances it is 1/999,999 that your door you pick is right vs 1/2 that the other door is right.

That one right?


OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH I GET IT KNOW. BECAUSE YOU KNOW THAT X/13 CAN NOT BE RIGHT BECAUSE ALL THE PEOPLE WHO DIED ARE TOWN. AND THAT X/8 IS CORRECT. THAT IS WHY YOU USED X/8!!!!!!!!

OH MY GOD I AM LEARNING!

Still like 51-60% that he is mafia compare to Vivaxs 50/50 lol.
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
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