EPTso same question regarding Damdred anyone else (besides LS based on modconfirmation) with reason to dread him?
Dark Tournament Mini Mafia - Page 81
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
so same question regarding Damdred anyone else (besides LS based on modconfirmation) with reason to dread him? | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 07 2015 23:27 Rels wrote: That's true you were the only vote not on HTS. The Shining had this in his case / scum read on me as well, if you want to check that out: On December 06 2015 08:37 The Shining wrote: [...] POE leaves me with the really bad outlier vote in disfo(this is another one whose filter and other games I have to revisit). But he's not lynching scum d2, pushing dyh hard all day and he himself calls himself waffleboy. That stubbornness and refusal to get off of DYH in the hopes he could shift the lynch off of HtS has me thinking he gave himself away. Me to come soon. [...] On December 06 2015 10:16 The Shining wrote: And disfo said he is consciously trying to change that waffling because it gets him scumread but he put out way more content last game and even though he waffled, he was towned quite a lot. I don't think his meta would change that quickly from one game to the next. Though I still not like getting a scumread for trying to waffle less this game. I also said pregame that I am probably going to put a bit less time in this game, because I need to get some RL stuff done... And here I am sitting at work typing away at this thread... | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 07 2015 23:30 NocturneMage wrote: here's another related theory I had for palmar being shot folks, hear me out. look I don't know the guy, but from the games I have read where dani has played I understand there is a pattern where some players know each other extremely well. like I look at the database, palmar has shittonnes of games played. does palmar know anyone here so well that he can ping them out well out of the blue even if he is not scumreading them now? is he known as someone who has late game heroics? who in this group might be threatened by him regardless of his reads at any point in the game? I see trfel and ls have approx 18-20 games played, I think recalling, and we know palmar was townreading ls or buying into the modconfirmation thing (which means ls should have no reason to shoot him in theory), dyh about 15, so IDK, ff high 20s, the rest far less than this. trfel is already being suspected by palmar, but thoughts on the rest? I realise this is quite random but I'm just trying to see if he possibly could ferret out another long time player and maybe that person could have been feeling threatened by him or his knowledge of the game. palmar was obviously taking a lazy way of solving the game so who here could have been getting scared of palmar once he decides to pull it together and solve? any takers? 4th game on TL folks. since so many of you are throwing meta out  5th game on tl.net. First game with Palmar. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On December 07 2015 23:36 NocturneMage wrote: actually looking at the way Damdred played the game come to think of it, the same concept I just discussed regarding Palmar applies to him. Plenty of games on him. He had more focus and direction day 1 but night 1 he did dick all, not sure if he was playing with the intention of trying to not be shot or if he was legit busy. so same question regarding Damdred anyone else (besides LS based on modconfirmation) with reason to dread him? Trfel / Shining / FF are the three players fitting this thing. HTS did too though, so that might apply less on the N1 kill. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/331187-tl-mafia-liv And they were both killed pretty early in that... | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 08 2015 00:01 Rels wrote: disfo I saw you fetched some geript's stuff from the last newbie ? How does it apply to Trfel this game then ? Well, one point was that for example Trfel's case/read on FF didn't evolve and focused on points that made FF look bad, but not necessary mafia. Scum not being able to change/adapt their reads to new circumstances is a thing, I also have seen in other reads. A general thing on Trfel was that he likes to focus on these points, ie points that make players look bad, but not necessarily mafia. So last game his reads were like "hm... nah" to me. This game his reads/cases feel more organic to me as in they react and incorporate more recent stuff that is happening. Also instead of having a few set in stone reads, he is more unsure about a lot of people. That being said, I still get a bunch of the similar "hm.. nah" vibe on a bunch of his points. I wanted to take a more in depth look at his stuff, but tbh, with having ppl over yesterday and not being at home in general on Saturday, I haven't gotten to that yet. But he is still on the list of ppl I want to look at, as mentioned earlier. So I'll hope I'll get this done today evening. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On December 07 2015 23:27 NocturneMage wrote: also disformation re 1855 - Palmar I think said that LS's end of cycle 1 message about him being VT pretty much exonerated him. see the posts where I queued up both Damdred and Palmar's reads to aggregate where they both stood before they died and as they played. right now, it's possible LS could be scum but based on the NKs I'm going to put him and DYH aside at this time, as scum and having been scum, you want to really eliminate the biggest threats. the only way this wouldn't apply is if you were universally townread, but that doesn't seem to be the case for any of my scumreads, so.... unless someone wants to make a non-meta based case on Fidei, the only point really sticking out at me is the soft pushing d1, and no offence James, but you know Dani and I well enough, if you DIDN'T sheep me I would have called you out on it, and if I recall right at no point in the game did you scumread me despite calling out my tone for being a "Jack Russell on meth" (lol?). So I really think that is not alignment indicative, you'd do it as town and you'd HAVE to do it as mafia. Alex, some points in response. I accept that Mafia can soft other Mafia. i suppose you have to think about whether it's more likely that Mafia James throws Dani into the scope earlier, or whether it's just town James with a good guy read on Dani. I can see that you would think I'd have to get on Dani once you were on her, regardless of alignment. But I was already on her. My read flows naturally. You might absolutely say that it's a coincidence that (1) I was right on her from the start and that (2) you came in, as town, and pinged her out for basically the same thing I did, forcing me to agree with you. But eh. I think if I was Mafia with Dani we'd try and end game you fools with both of us alive. Dani is a really good player who, if Moosy hadn't replaced out, might never have got lynched. If anything, I'd be encouraging her to start softing me. In fact, she hard town read me all the way through. Re your alignment, I really think there's a decent chance that you're Mafia. In my head this goes along the lines of Dani saying "I can't face the game any more, and people are already on to me, so this works best if you thread enter and hard bus me." I know you are married, but being as sure as you were about someone's alignment just seems really out of kilter with your previous play. But obv there is a bunch of reading for me to do before I give a final read. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
Shining, disfo and LS are town. Kills points at Trfel and fidei. DYH is also an attractive lynch, but kills don't point to him. Finally, fidei's point about NM's being so sure of HTS the minute he enters the thread makes some sense. Looks like FF didn't make any list. Means he's likely town. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 08 2015 00:36 Rels wrote: Well here is my mind right now: Shining, disfo and LS are town. Kills points at Trfel and fidei. DYH is also an attractive lynch, but kills don't point to him. Finally, fidei's point about NM's being so sure of HTS the minute he enters the thread makes some sense. Looks like FF didn't make any list. Means he's likely town. Hm... think I can agree to most of it. But can you explain your read on LS? Last time I looked at him I wasn't impressed. On December 08 2015 00:40 Fidei86 wrote: Gun to my head, on a pure gut read basis, I think the Mafia is likely 2 of LS, Disfo and NM. LS and NM I've discussed. Disfo is something I've been mulling for a while, and it's mostly because I feel all of his posts have tried to look useful but actually haven't been. (Filter dives to follow. I mean it this time). If you got the time and are interested, feel free to look at my previous games (all linked in my profile). | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On December 08 2015 00:48 disformation wrote: Hm... think I can agree to most of it. But can you explain your read on LS? Last time I looked at him I wasn't impressed. Both Damdred and Palmar townread him the a high level (confirmed town for Damdred, probably town for Palmar). Him screaming "I'M VT" at deadline of D1. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
DYH, NM: You earned a confirmed town status today due to you being the first pushers of the HTS train. Lynch another mafia and that status will probably extend to the end of the game. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 08 2015 00:48 Rels wrote: @fidei and anyone thinking NM is scum: it probably means DYH is also scum. If NM is scum, the scum strategy is to bus HTS for max town cred. In that case, it doesn't make sense that the third mafia is someone hesitating on the lynch like disfo or LS. That would be a super sick scum play. On December 08 2015 00:49 Rels wrote: Both Damdred and Palmar townread him the a high level (confirmed town for Damdred, probably town for Palmar). Him screaming "I'M VT" at deadline of D1. I don't really get the modconfirm thing... but I remember finding a few instances of him behaving similar in other of his town games. Also would love to sheep my town!damdy on that. xD | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
Going to get some groceries on the way. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On December 08 2015 00:54 Rels wrote: OK this is hard so here is what going to happen. DYH, NM: You earned a confirmed town status today due to you being the first pushers of the HTS train. Lynch another mafia and that status will probably extend to the end of the game. ??? I like that you've missed me off this list Rels. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On December 08 2015 00:59 Fidei86 wrote: ??? I like that you've missed me off this list Rels. Sry bro only two title were in stock. | ||
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