On December 17 2015 22:55 Palmar wrote:
It wasn't all bad, and of course sometimes you need to shoot for wifom, but as a rule of thumb, people tend to do it too often.
The rationale is very simple. It's much easier for people to stay on target than it is to step back and reassess. People are generally very biased to their own beliefs. Let's take an example:
Disfo is mafia.
LS is town
Palmartown thinks LS is mafia
Damdredtown thinks Disfo is mafia
If you make the wifom shot (Palmar) you're hoping the following happens:
Damdred steps back, realizes he's been wrong the entire time and Palmar must have gotten shot for being right on LS. Damdred changes his mind and starts thinking LS is mafia
If you make the simple shot (Damdred) you're hoping the following happens:
Palmar keeps tunneling LS without thinking too much about the NK
In general (of course this is very situation specific), you want to bet on people being stubborn and self-righteous. It is extremely difficult to recognize when you've been wrong and reassess, it's one of the hardest things to do in mafia. I don't blame anyone for sticking to their original beliefs when in doubt.
hmm... haven't exactly looked at it from this angle. maybe because I am prone to waffle about and am ususally not that stubborn about my reads.
EPT
