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On November 07 2015 22:36 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 22:32 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
If there is 1 scum in you/xata/sl, and I think there likely is, that means there's 2 scum in Rels/HtS/Shockeyy/Superbia/Kita and I have to select the exact 3 townies from the 5. That seems like a much harder task than selecting the player I have a strong townread on from the mission that failed. Well you know i would never pick a team with 2 scum in it, nor yay-vote it. I doubt Xatalos would do that either. Based on above, if SL is scum, 2-scum team would not go through because me or Xatalos would downvote it, regardless of which one of us would be scum. So yeah, there is not gonna be 2 scum in the first mission.
So your reason for Xatalos being town is SL is scum? What makes you convinced on that?
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On November 07 2015 22:40 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 22:36 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2015 22:32 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
If there is 1 scum in you/xata/sl, and I think there likely is, that means there's 2 scum in Rels/HtS/Shockeyy/Superbia/Kita and I have to select the exact 3 townies from the 5. That seems like a much harder task than selecting the player I have a strong townread on from the mission that failed. Well you know i would never pick a team with 2 scum in it, nor yay-vote it. I doubt Xatalos would do that either. Based on above, if SL is scum, 2-scum team would not go through because me or Xatalos would downvote it, regardless of which one of us would be scum. So yeah, there is not gonna be 2 scum in the first mission. So your reason for Xatalos being town is SL is scum? What makes you convinced on that?
No it's basically the other way around.
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My reasoning for sl being scum is that Xatalos looks more town and i fail to see a scenario where there is 2 scum on the mission.
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On November 07 2015 22:36 Half the Sky wrote:
Artanis, it was posts 605/919. Pretty much why I'm a bit sold on you as town atm is your general thought process from 973/75, 986, etc, and your approach your Rels looks pretty towny. You don't have an agenda to push him one way or another but the reasons for you scumreading him look through from your filter.
Fair enough.
What exactly made you decide to vote yes on the mission?
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On November 07 2015 22:44 raynpelikoneet wrote:
My reasoning for sl being scum is that Xatalos looks more town and i fail to see a scenario where there is 2 scum on the mission.
Then I will repeat my question.
Why does Xatalos look so town to you?
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On November 07 2015 22:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:
HtS do you really think Rels and Shockeyy both voted nay as scum?
Why?
I brought disassociation up with Xata before but it was tinfoil for one player let alone two.
That aside, their reads? I know Shockey was scumreading anyone who was scumreading him or at least heavily suspicious of you. And Rels was scumreading sicklucker or at least doubtful on him - if SL is town he's an easy guy to push.
So for either of them to vote otherwise would fly in the face of how their reads were and they would have an unexplained change in reads. Or an unexplained change in reasoning, which scum generally want to keep things together on.
If I had to go with the theory that only one of those people coudl be scum, since you are saying it's unlikely two scum voted no, then I'd probably say Rels over Shockey but that would mean that one of them is playing very suboptimally (and I know neither has played this type of game so this is quite possible) and I'd have to really look at both from the bottom up to determin that.
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On November 07 2015 22:21 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 22:20 sicklucker wrote:
I skimmed it tbh. it tilts me more to rayn being the scum and xata being dumb. Like I didnt make my reasons to town read xata up. But my entire reason for townreading rayn might have been wrong since he went against that logic now anyway. He could have just been townreading me to set up just this situation Except i wanted someone else onto the mission over you....
barely if at all
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On November 07 2015 22:45 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 22:36 Half the Sky wrote:
Artanis, it was posts 605/919. Pretty much why I'm a bit sold on you as town atm is your general thought process from 973/75, 986, etc, and your approach your Rels looks pretty towny. You don't have an agenda to push him one way or another but the reasons for you scumreading him look through from your filter. Fair enough. What exactly made you decide to vote yes on the mission?
Same thing I told Kita. At the time I was TRing Xata/Rayn and sicklucker like I said was 60/40 on him even though I was more sure on you. My scumreads at the time were Rels/Shockey/TBD. Seeing Rels and Shockey also downvoting the team, made me think that scum were downvoting the mission.
It's possible given their reads, but I will probably need to re-evaluate those two.
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Tell you what, I'll be fair here. I have to go somewhere in 2 hours, and then I have a short gap this evening (20-21ish GMT) I believe, although I might be on mobile. I'll do what I can to just start over and try and re-read Rels and see if there might be any town motivation to how he's approaching the game.
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On November 07 2015 22:48 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 22:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:
HtS do you really think Rels and Shockeyy both voted nay as scum?
Why? I brought disassociation up with Xata before but it was tinfoil for one player let alone two. That aside, their reads? I know Shockey was scumreading anyone who was scumreading him or at least heavily suspicious of you. And Rels was scumreading sicklucker or at least doubtful on him - if SL is town he's an easy guy to push. So for either of them to vote otherwise would fly in the face of how their reads were and they would have an unexplained change in reads. Or an unexplained change in reasoning, which scum generally want to keep things together on. If I had to go with the theory that only one of those people coudl be scum, since you are saying it's unlikely two scum voted no, then I'd probably say Rels over Shockey but that would mean that one of them is playing very suboptimally (and I know neither has played this type of game so this is quite possible) and I'd have to really look at both from the bottom up to determin that.
But Rels isn't really pushing sl alone, he is pushing me too. If sl is an easy push to him in your opinion, why does he push me too then as scum?
Not really, no, if they townread Artanis. I am talking about Rels here, not Shockeyy. Basically you can't have your reads align too much as scum here, if you are pushing for 3 mission victory, which seems to be the case here.
That's not what i asked. Way to talk about something completely different that i in fact asked..... So your reasoning is "because they would then have unexplained change in reads". I believe Rels is good enough to figure a way out here -- especially if, as you claim, Xatalos is scum. Like if that is the case, i am 100% certain Rels could have found a reason to townread sicklucker -- because sicklucker would ACTUALLY be town (and he townread me + Xatalos anyways, before the team nomination went out).
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Pretty sure Rels said before the fact he was townreading you (even if he's pushing you NOW). I'll double check.
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On November 07 2015 22:49 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 22:21 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2015 22:20 sicklucker wrote:
I skimmed it tbh. it tilts me more to rayn being the scum and xata being dumb. Like I didnt make my reasons to town read xata up. But my entire reason for townreading rayn might have been wrong since he went against that logic now anyway. He could have just been townreading me to set up just this situation Except i wanted someone else onto the mission over you.... barely if at all
wrong
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Alright, I knew I wasn't going crazy.
On November 05 2015 22:10 Rels wrote:rayn and you are town. SL I'm not sure. Nothing scummy, but he's not doing much. Arta tomorrow will probably elect you / rayn / him; my vote will depend on who I think is towniest between SL and Arta at deadline. Waiting on Arta's answers to me + his analysis on me he said he would do.
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On November 07 2015 22:57 Half the Sky wrote:
Pretty sure Rels said before the fact he was townreading you (even if he's pushing you NOW). I'll double check.
That was regarding you saying "sicklucker would be an easy target to put the blame on".
If you think that's true then "Rels is also pushing rayn now" doesn't make any fucking sense, or should not make any sense in your world from scum!Rels perspective.
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Basically, HtS, if you think Rels is mafia, you should think Artanis is mafia too based on his behavior at the voting phase...
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...or that i am mafia with Rels.
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On November 07 2015 22:55 raynpelikoneet wrote:
That's not what i asked. Way to talk about something completely different that i in fact asked..... So your reasoning is "because they would then have unexplained change in reads". I believe Rels is good enough to figure a way out here -- especially if, as you claim, Xatalos is scum. Like if that is the case, i am 100% certain Rels could have found a reason to townread sicklucker -- because sicklucker would ACTUALLY be town (and he townread me + Xatalos anyways, before the team nomination went out).
As I said, I could be wrong on Rels so I have to start from scratch on him. The argument you are presenting is that Rels doesn't have TMI (or however you said it) on SL, but this is also based on your pre-conceived notion that sicklucker actually IS scum. If Rels is scum, he doesn't just have to TMI sicklucker, there are other ways. Let's say that SL is town, and that somehow you're wrong on Xata (and you've been wrong on reads before, so don't say you aren't wrong). Surely you can entertain the slightest possibility that you are wrong.
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On November 07 2015 22:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 22:57 Half the Sky wrote:
Pretty sure Rels said before the fact he was townreading you (even if he's pushing you NOW). I'll double check. That was regarding you saying "sicklucker would be an easy target to put the blame on". If you think that's true then "Rels is also pushing rayn now" doesn't make any fucking sense, or should not make any sense in your world from scum!Rels perspective.
Eh, he has a good scumgame. If you're playing suboptimally and any good scum player wants to take advantage of that, they can. Rels has shown as either alignment (as mafia SOTW) he's not afraid of clashing with people. You've been wrong on him twice now in other games, but that's besides the point.
That said I am generically wary of two spies voting no so I'll go ahead and re-eval Rels anyhow. If I think I have cause to be wrong then I'll state my reasons why and then wind up upvoting the team.
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On November 07 2015 23:03 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 22:55 raynpelikoneet wrote:
That's not what i asked. Way to talk about something completely different that i in fact asked..... So your reasoning is "because they would then have unexplained change in reads". I believe Rels is good enough to figure a way out here -- especially if, as you claim, Xatalos is scum. Like if that is the case, i am 100% certain Rels could have found a reason to townread sicklucker -- because sicklucker would ACTUALLY be town (and he townread me + Xatalos anyways, before the team nomination went out). As I said, I could be wrong on Rels so I have to start from scratch on him. The argument you are presenting is that Rels doesn't have TMI (or however you said it) on SL, but this is also based on your pre-conceived notion that sicklucker actually IS scum. If Rels is scum, he doesn't just have to TMI sicklucker, there are other ways. Let's say that SL is town, and that somehow you're wrong on Xata (and you've been wrong on reads before, so don't say you aren't wrong). Surely you can entertain the slightest possibility that you are wrong.
No it is not.
It is based on the fact YOU think Rels is scum.
For Rels to be scum the following must be true:
1) he knows there is mafia on the mission
2) he still nay-votes the mission
3) instead of (as you are arguing) pushing the "easy target" (sicklucker), he decides to push him AND me
Now mafia will obviously want to sabotage the first mission. Rels' play only makes sense as mafia if rayn is scum or Artanis is scum. Because it is highly expected that Artanis will pick AT LEAST rayn (as proven, if you weren't able to figure that out earlier). Otherwise, Rels, by nay-voting the team (where he has an easy scumread on SL after, especially if -- as you say -- Xatalos is scum) hinders his chances of getting a 1-scum mission 1 team. Rels already knows Shockeyy (who you assume is scum with him) will 100% vote nay to the mission.
How how does this make sense again? In a sense that Rels doesn't take the easy way out -- instead he takes the hard way out, of calling by ALSO me scum. Like it would be really easy to Rels for just "make up" a legitmate reason for SL to be town (as by your definition SL is town as Xatalos is scum), and after the mission fails he can go, like you do; "hmm... well one of these guys has to be scum, i guess i was wrong on [insert name here]".
Why is that less likely? Why does he less likely do that as mafia than what he did?
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EPT
