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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
On November 03 2015 03:20 gumshoe wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2015 02:54 Blazinghand wrote: Like from my point of view although I was fine with the gb lynch, I spent a lot of effort trying to get people not to bail from the Onegu lynch and to get people to join it. Ritoky has a ton of "plausible deniability" about not being persuaded by the words of me and various other pro-lynch-onegu people. I guess what I'm getting at is, if Ritoky is scum, why take this leap and get onto Onegu? I get that it makes him look townie, but there's a REASON it makes him look townie, and that's that it's a bad move for scum to make. It's not just a bus, it's a bus that basically took Onegu from not being lynched to be ing lynched, if you think this is what happened. nah your not getting vivax's argument / : vivax knows hes town 100 percent, therefore it doesnt matter how bad a play scum made, because hes not scum, therefore there must be scum who bussed (that or chrom and hopeless are scum together, but I think vivax has flip flopped enough for one game so no reason to invite that)
I mean, I get that vivax thinks he's town, but I don't see why he's fixated on Ritoky in particular. Like "clearly scum must have bussed Onegu, therefore Ritoky did it" seems to be somewhat of a stretch. I will sit down with VCA as usual and crank out some analysis before EoN and read vivax in detail, since it looks like we need to identify another scum.
In any case, despite this setback with GB I still think H1 is the right lynch tomorrow. The answers I'll leave will be more focused on who to go after post-H1-Lynch. Let me know if you have any requests.
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
There's nothing unique about "I'm town therefore you're scum", is what I'm saying, and I'm not sure how that could drive Vivax in a particular direction. Well, I'll just have to reread his posts.
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
Day 1 Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghand raynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, OneguOnegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos
Day 2 yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax, GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBearXatalos (1): raynpelikoneetHopeless1der (1): Onegu
Day 3 Onegu (5): Xatalos, Blazinghand, GlowingBear, gumshoe, ritoky GlowingBear (4): Vivax, Chromatically, Hopeless1der, Onegu [/b]
Day 4 GlowingBear (6): Blazinghand, Hopeless1der, Vivax, Chromatically, gumshoe, ritoky Vivax (1): GlowingBear
So, we have new flips and new information. Day 4 was a unanimous lynch and tells us little, so we’ll look at the earlier lynches:
First off, the Day 3 wagons were scum and town. People who were on the Onegu wagon are more likely pretty much automatically to be twon; people on the GB wagon are more likely to be scum. Of course, there’s a chance of scum bussing in a situation like this, but they only needed one more to get to LYLO.
Vivax, Chrom, and H1 are the three unflipped players who were voting GB EoD. We’re already planning to lynch H1 first, so we’ll ignore him and assume he’s scum.
Chrom’s thoughts on Onegu:
On October 30 2015 06:45 Chromatically wrote: W/E I guess it doesn't really matter since I'm pretty sure they're both mafia, it's just annoying since people haven't been convinced on GB for 2 days now.
If Onegu somehow flips town though I'll be upset.
Vivax’ thoughts on Onegu:
On October 28 2015 02:48 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On October 28 2015 02:46 Onegu wrote: I am here. We are lynching Hopeless tomorrow. Lynch bait express
On October 30 2015 02:26 Vivax wrote:Rayn's last "bigger" case: + Show Spoiler +On October 27 2015 23:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:GlowingBear is definitely mafia. Show nested quote +On October 27 2015 01:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: This is what happened, regardless of if you want to address it or not;
- rayn calls GB town - rayn calls GB scum, explains why he changes his view -- see yamato/Vivax, mostly Vivax) - GB calls rayn town - GB asks about his scumreads from rayn (or townreads -- but still rayn too) - rayn says "you are not reading the thread" - GB says "yes i have" - rayn says "well then you would know my stance (also marv's/chrom's)" - GB says okay so gimme reads on ppl - rayn says "haha you're scum" - GB says oh i just now figured out rayn is mafia i wanna vote for him
.....
D2: GB argues that what i did on D1 (when he called me mafia) is inside my townplay...
^_^ Just read this and the post i made about this earlier, here: Show nested quote +On October 26 2015 19:41 raynpelikoneet wrote:mmmmmm..... + Show Spoiler +On October 23 2015 07:59 raynpelikoneet wrote: I might be wrong on GlowingBear, what Vivax said makes a lot of sense tbh. It's like GB goes "i call this thing scummy then i ask about it" when it should be another way around if he didn't know the reasoning of Vivax' reads. If he doesn't care about the answer (=scummy anyways, as he seemed to think so), why even ask? On October 23 2015 11:59 GlowingBear wrote:Phew. Finally ended up re-reading. + Show Spoiler +On October 22 2015 06:41 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2015 06:39 Xatalos wrote:On October 22 2015 06:36 ritoky wrote: gumshoe might be mafia. Why? poorly explained response, forced joke, clear post editing, extra lines at the end of post. This post makes me think ritoky is town. I had a similar impression to gumshoe's early posts and it's finally something unrelated to RNG discussion. On October 22 2015 06:56 gumshoe wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2015 06:30 Chromatically wrote: BH, you talk a lot about why your lynch is random but not at all about why we should follow it. Theres no point to him trying to convince us to follow his lynch. RNG is viable when reads are shit, convincing town to rng lynch requires shit reads. The game has just begun therefore reads have not had the time to develop quality, which means bh does not yet posses his convince condition. In the absence of the means to convince us to choose his method, all he can do is argue how his is truly random. Because a mafia player who argues for an actual rng lynch is forfeiting his ability to protect his teammates (and potentially himself) from rng. A competent scumer would usually have faith in his ability to sway town one way or another, which means he probably wouldn't risk an rng team kill. Basically there are only 3 kinds of players who would propose this strat. 1) a player who is so insecure about his play, he is honestly proposing to just roll the dice instead of play(at least on day 1). This player could be town or scum. 2) A town player who is just using this as a means to prove his innocence "why would I risk killing myself or my teamies as mafia? I must be town!" this works sorta because your odds are quite low of hitting yourself and if you do then you can always say "well I know I'm town, so I'll just disregard this result" -_- 3) A scummer who believes that town will not actually rng lynch because it is objectively a bad strat compared to a really solid case/read. He must hope for this, because to a scummer the rng lynch can actually just backfire, since mafia as an entity operate on a clear pool of lives as opposed to towns mist of health. we can probally straight up rule out the first possibility (bh be goods not scrubs), which leaves 2 and 3. This whole thing seems pre written so hard to tell between them. Honestly best just to ignore the whole thing unless it gets to the point where our reads are so junk an rng lynch is actually more likely. ether way, I dont think bh expects us to actually straight up rng lynch, this was probably just a way to look active early on without actually offering substance (though it might draw substance out of others, which is always good) I don't like this post from gumshoe simply because there are a lot more reasons why someone would RNG, and everyone knows RNG isn't alignment indicative for BH (he has done it as both alignments). If he thinks this something that should be ignore, why putting so many thoughts on it just to say that? I also am not liking Xatalos posts in this game. Xatalos is usually more extensive in his posts when he is town, and he usually talk about relevant stuff. Here, he wasted too much time talking about the RNG and his reads are usually... I don't know... not committed enough? I don't like it. I'm at page 19 and gumshoe is still talking about BH. Argh. On October 22 2015 11:08 Chromatically wrote:I'm back, I'm planning on rereading the thread and looking more into some people but here's where I'm at now: - gumshoe feels really town, especially that last post. The way he rambles shows a town thought process in his posts. - I don't think BH has done anything alignment indicative and I don't understand why people are reading him town. - I liked when rayn said, "Chrom would be town if I hadn't been scum with him before", I think that statement usually comes from someone honestly trying to read me (i.e. town). - Hopeless' entrance felt awkward to me, did not like it. - Xatalos is town for driving discussion and the stuff he says comes from a town perspective, probably Vivax too for similar reasons. If anyone has questions I'd love to hear them because an uncomfortable amount of people seem to think I'm mafia and I don't like it. I like this post A LOT, especially because he pointed out the stuff on BH. I feel very comfortable to give Chromatically a day pass just for this. On October 23 2015 04:57 Xatalos wrote:gumshoe: It's a bit funny you called me out about waffling on you when your entire last post waffling on... everyone Every read had some "but... then..." moment haharayn: About BH, I'm not completely sure how I came to lean as strongly town on BH as on Vivax. It might not be as deserved as the townread on Vivax (on objective merits of meta etc.), I just felt (and actually still feel) that his level of effort and activity seemed more likely to come from town. The way he engaged people and seemed to have really thought about his own ideas... It didn't feel at all like a fake push trying to gather credibility. What's more, I skimmed through all the links ritoky provided and it was a common trend that BH pushed the idea of RNG lynching as town but didn't do that as scum. I think it's a minor meta point in BH's favor, even if it's not like it's impossible to fake something like that... I just didn't get the feeling it was fake. Well, did you? For the time being, I'm happy to put BH in the pile of non-lynchables. YEAH XATA, IT'S A BIT FUNNY. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF IT??? Shouldn't it be alignment indicative for you? I'm now at page 29 and I hardly see BH being suspicious of anyone. He is wasting too much time with this RNG shit. I don't like it. Although I can't actually call it scummy yet. This post makes me feel better about Xatalos: On October 23 2015 05:33 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2015 05:28 raynpelikoneet wrote: There is absolutely nothing alignment indicative in your rng Blazinghand, you know it, everyone should know it. "Figuring out" something regarding it is a waste of time. Well it's kind of like... Imagine player X. He has a great record of posting a lengthy introduction post as scum when he starts the game, and as town he's so far just immediately jumped in and started posting actual content. Now in a current game he immediately makes a lengthy introduction post. Could he have done it as town to make himself harder to read? Possibly. But I'd still take into account that maybe the meta is repeating itself, no? And if you read my posts, it's not just that about Blazinghand, but more like how he was so excited about the RNG when he's several times before said that it's pro-town. It would be harder to convey that excitement as scum when he think it's so pro-town clearly. I wouldn't give him a town read but it's enough to make me not want to lynch him On October 23 2015 06:35 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2015 06:34 Xatalos wrote:On October 23 2015 06:30 Chromatically wrote: Here's a better question imo: do you really think that BH would have a problem arguing the benefits of RNG lynch as mafia?
He wouldn't have any problem doing that at all, given that he's done the exact same thing many times before and RNG lynch is by definition completely independent of BH's alignment. Well, read my last post.... Also, like I said, even if it might sound good in theory, he hasn't done that so far in his scumgames and it wouldn't probably be as easy in practise ESPECIALLY if the RNG hit his teammate. Do you feel like Blazinghand is pressuring me at the moment? Do you feel like i feel pressured? Do you thin kanyone whould feel pressured if the rng landed on them? I totally agree with this. It looks really bad. Basically, here is where I'm at: ~ Town: Chromatically rayn marv~ Null with town passes: ritoky (I thought he was town but after he got townread his play has been very lackluster) Xatalos (I hate his filter but I could see some townie posts and I'm never lynching a 8 pages filter on day1) yamato (I will never lynch yamato on day1 unless he is glaringly scummy, and I have yet to see something scummy in him) ~ Could lynch: gumshoe (I disliked most of his posts and he even scumread Xatalos for doing exactly what he has done most of the game: wasted it talking about RNG) Blazinghand (mostly talks about RNG and I have yet to see him getting any scumreads based on his reaction test - he said he won't lynch Chromatically today and that's all that's interesting I have seen him talking about) ~ Could lynch harder: Onegu (I can never read him and I hated that he said he would sheep me - gives me deja vu from last game where he was mafia against me - him being more invested in this game is usually a bad sign) Hopeless1der (useless - feels like his play in Avogadro's Mini Mafia) Vivax (I disagree with everyone, being confident =/= being straight forward and giving unexplained town passes, especially from a guy that I remember seeing flipping his reads constantly based on tinfoil theories. Here I see a guy with static reads that are never updatedSpecial ? category: Slam (although people say slam is unreadable, I usually can read him better on later days so I don't really want to think about him on day1) On October 23 2015 16:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2015 16:01 GlowingBear wrote: I seriously don't understand why I'm being scumread.
Could you please enlighten me? Because you are pushing a bad reasoned read. Because the way you defend yourself is exactly what you do as scum. Because you said you reda the thread but you actually didn't, not even close. On October 23 2015 16:21 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2015 16:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 23 2015 16:01 GlowingBear wrote: I seriously don't understand why I'm being scumread.
Could you please enlighten me? Because you are pushing a bad reasoned read. Because the way you defend yourself is exactly what you do as scum. Because you said you reda the thread but you actually didn't, not even close. I've actually read this thread more closely than any recent games I've played. You should be able to tell by the time stamps. I've spent almost 3 hours reading and thinking about it. I think my reasons are fair enough to vote Vivax. He has yet to explain the townreads, his activity dropped, his reads are static. I think this makes Vivax mafia. If you don't, fair enough. But I don't understand how you can possibly believe I, as mafia, would call both you and marv town while disagreeing with your top town reads. I defended myself by using logic. Thinking someone is scum and asking questions doesn't make my read premeditated. I will always further investigate what I find suspicious. On October 23 2015 23:24 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2015 19:06 marvellosity wrote: GB, why is Chrome your #1 townread above all others? Marv, I think he is being productive and trying to solve the game. He has been trying to push his scum reads. There was a particular post I liked and I've put it in the spoilered part of my list post. It's this one: + Show Spoiler +On October 22 2015 11:08 Chromatically wrote: I'm back, I'm planning on rereading the thread and looking more into some people but here's where I'm at now:
- gumshoe feels really town, especially that last post. The way he rambles shows a town thought process in his posts. - I don't think BH has done anything alignment indicative and I don't understand why people are reading him town. - I liked when rayn said, "Chrom would be town if I hadn't been scum with him before", I think that statement usually comes from someone honestly trying to read me (i.e. town). - Hopeless' entrance felt awkward to me, did not like it. - Xatalos is town for driving discussion and the stuff he says comes from a town perspective, probably Vivax too for similar reasons.
If anyone has questions I'd love to hear them because an uncomfortable amount of people seem to think I'm mafia and I don't like it. The part where he talks about BH is exactly what I was thinking at that moment. Marv I asked you and Rayn if you like any of the lynch targets I proposed, can you take a look at it? It's easy to find in my filter because it's the only colored post. On October 24 2015 00:04 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2015 00:03 GlowingBear wrote:On October 23 2015 23:58 marvellosity wrote:On October 23 2015 23:57 GlowingBear wrote:On October 23 2015 23:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 23 2015 19:28 marvellosity wrote: the funny thing is, one thing that makes me unsure about GB being mafia - both rayn and I stated pretty early that Vivax was town and I think it was kinda obvious we were serious about it. So I guess GB-mafia in that instance somehow decides to go against both me and rayn and push a very weak meta case? it's practically suicidal. maybe he's just town and believes it... dno right now and btw this is what GB does as scum. He basically does something that is "too scummy to be scum" then, when called out for it he says "mafia would never do that so i am not mafia". Hell he isn't even really defending his read (see Trfel/Damdred last game), he just says "i would not pick Vivax as my target as mafia because people are townreading him". No, that's not what I do every time, get your head off your ass, I just played a game where I was town and I defended myself the same way. If you think I'm not defending my read you should fucking read me instead of calling me scum. It's fucking annoying when someone call me mafia without even reading a two page filter. I fucking ASKED you if you liked one of my reads. great inacitivty lynch I was at my night class when the game stared and I'm playing two games - when I've got the time I read the whole thread and gave my impressions on all players. no you didn't read the thread. if you did you would know what your townreads (chrom/me/marv) say about your lynch targets. you would also know i don't read you town at that point. so you didn't actually read the thread. On October 24 2015 00:41 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2015 00:37 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 24 2015 00:36 GlowingBear wrote:On October 24 2015 00:32 Xatalos wrote: GB, if you're town, seriously don't just commit suicide here. Looks like it's heading towards you vs rayn and it'd be sad if you caused your own death there, like a certain player in my newbie game.... I'm not commiting suicide, I'm getting angry that such shitty scum read on me based on a read that I find very reasonable and I'm having a hard time believing good players can't possibly see I'm town. Then start playing as town, vote for slam, and stop asking questions about what you should already know instead of telling us you have read the thread. I HAVE READ THE THREAD I KNOW YOU "YOLO'ED" AND CALLED ONEGU TOWN FOR NO REASON I KNOW YOU META'ED HOPELESS AND CALLED HIM TOWN I KNOW MARV AND YOU HAD TWO INITIAL TOWNREADS - XATALOS AND VIVAX I KNOW YOU FUCKING HAD GUMSHOE AS MAFIA THEN FLIPPED YOUR READ WHY CAN'T I BRING WHAT I THINK ABOUT PLAYERS AND ASK YOU TO COMMENT ABOUT WHAT I'VE BROUGHT INSTEAD OF SAYING "OH OKAY RAYN SAID THESE GUYS ARE TOWN SO THEY ARE"????!?!?? JESUS CHRIST On October 24 2015 04:07 GlowingBear wrote: I don't want to lynch chromatically. Especially now that Vivax is voting him.
And I've been putting thoughts on Rayn. His flip one is bad. He said it was very unlikely I was scum and that I was very level headed with my read in Vivax.
Then Vivax said something about me scum reading him before asking questions, and Rayn agreed and called me scum over the same posts he called me "very unlikely to be mafia". It doesn't make sense.
I'm voting rayn mmmmmmmmm..... and here... Show nested quote +On October 27 2015 00:55 raynpelikoneet wrote: You literally had fucking 20 hours to re-evaluate, you called me town ALL THAT IME, then you suddenly think i am a better lynch than Slam who you had no read on.
Go GB, GO! The fact is this has nothing to do with either: 1) re-evaluating a read, or 2) not having read the thread GlowingBear calls me town, then calls me mafia 20 hours later while calling me town there all the time between. Nowhere there does he make any attempt to re-evaluate anything, also i asked him multiple times if he has read the thread properly. He says "yes i have". This is not re-evaluating something (in contrary to for what example i did regarding my reads on ritoky / GB on D1), because he never shows any process of re-evaluation. Then, he just ends up saying the same bullshit Xatalos is pushing. Now idk, maybe he expected Slam to get lynched and didn't want to be on a mislynch wagon, or maybe he expected Xatalos to be able to lynch me which would be a much better for mafia than Slam lynched. idk. But still, the fact is he ended up voting for his townread over someone who he "can't get a read on" (=null). That, is a fact, and he just made up reasons for the read, as shown above.
Hopeless is another scum since he just doesn't play anymore. He can also get lynched. Next thing is to read Onegu, and unless i come to the conclusion he is scum then the next thing is to read BH. Just because BH does not really take any stance on any lynch. He really does not, he goes onto his shennies which gives him outs left and right saying either "i was right", "i tried to lynch mafia", "i didn't want to lynch town", or if he hit mafia "i actually wanted to lynch that mafia". Shennies are bullshit and they don't even happen. Period. He is not trying to lynch anyone for reals. Why not include GB here: + Show Spoiler +On October 28 2015 12:21 Onegu wrote: Rayn scum reads Xata, and hopeless and then dies. Coincidence I think not.
Anyway I am going to bed.
We should lynch xata or hopeless today.
Just a really derpy post, he thinks GB is town contrary to what rayn posted last. And wtf is a clout? + Show Spoiler +On October 30 2015 01:32 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2015 00:44 Xatalos wrote: Dunno... It just feels like he throws scum/townreads around too casually. This Xatalos/hopeless thing now too... Ignoring rayn's scumreads on GB/ritoky.... And instead pushing us two.. Why? The main reason is because I am scum reading you two more. GB needs looked at also, but I feel multiple people scum read GB maybe he shoots rayn, but only rayn and myself were scum reading you. Rayn had the clout that I dont to actually lynch you. Then says he agreed with most of rayn's reads and later drops the vote on Hopeless over GB who is way more likely to be lynched. + Show Spoiler +On October 30 2015 01:42 Onegu wrote:
Rayns reads were correct and that is why he was killed. A serious rayn is capable of putting a legit case on scum even if he is being scum read getting that person lynched.
I wasnt surprised rayn was killed. I town read him hard. I agreed with most of his reads.
In a world where I am scum this game I dont kill Rayn, I am not going to kill the only person that is town reading me this game. It would be suicide for me. Killing rayn takes pressure off of the people he was scum reading and lets them put pressure on me. They want this mislynch on me it gets them to lylo. Conclusion: Onegu really posts confused things. Or he's mafia with GB and tries to push us all to hopeless, cause otherwise I can't explain why he's so hung up on rayn's reads when he misses or disregards the fattest of them.
It doesn’t look like either of these people had a really bad reason for not voting Onegu; they weren’t calling him confscum. On GB:
Vivax seems eager to try to hold the wagon together on GB and starts to use a little allcaps when he realizes Onegu is going through:
On October 30 2015 06:50 Vivax wrote: Xata get your vote on GB PLEASE
And seems upset that the 1G lynch goes through over GB:
On October 30 2015 06:59 Vivax wrote: BH hunting the epeen from Onegu lynch while saying GB claimed scum.
priceless.
Whereas Chrom:
On October 30 2015 06:54 Chromatically wrote: Hey guys let's lynch GB now please, I can actually see Onegu flipping town
Similarly tries to get people onto GB, but the effort seems much more half-hearted. At the same time, it doesn’t seem ANGRY, like Vivax seems. It seems… disappointed? Scared? Overall I think Chrom comes out of this looking better than Vivax.
Not gonna analyze the D1 wagon; they were on the same slam wagon.
On D2, Vivax votes Yam, who was town, whereas Chrom voted GB, who was also town, but a potential double-lynch target. Chrom being town and H1 being AFK WOULD explain why there was no swap for 2x lynch, but this is only weak evidence since it seems most people woultn’t go for this as scum.
Overall, I think in terms of tone we see a big shift from Vivax as we transitioned from the early game, when we were struggling, to the late game, when we started doing well. D1 and D2 were definitely both shitfests. Both times, the two main wagons were town, and both times, after a bunch of lollygagging we lynched a townie. D3 was when we finally pulled together and got our shit in gear. I think you’ll notice a lot of the players who ended up being town (GB aside), and yourself if you’re town and reading this, started feeling a lot more confident around D3-d4. Things have pretty much fallen into place; we even are accounted for fine if one of GB/H1/1G flip town, which happened. In general, we took control of this game, which is good.
Chromatically seems to have reacted to this by becoming more relaxed and maintaining a good activity level. Compared to Vivax, he has the same number of posts, but he has a 40% longer filter in terms of words; He’s not spamming, but he’s making lots of post. His tone also seems pretty happy with the game. He wasn’t upset afte rthe 1G lynch, the first scum lynch, Vivax is MAD:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=159#3167
Look at his posts around there.He’s upset after scum getting lynched, whereas everyone else is energetic and happy. As we’ve started to win this game, we’ve felt more at ease, but vivax has been less at ease.
We have one lynch after H1. Use it on Vivax.
TLDR lynch H1 then Viv
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
DONT LYNCH CHROM THAT POST IS GREAT DONT LYNCH HIM
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
I mean he WAS alongside me and gummy one of the few surviving members of the Onegu wagon, and I guess him jumping off GB at the last minute made him "confirmed town" but... man. I was all ready to be like "You keep on using that word, I don't think it means what you think it means" next time he called himself conf.
Doesn't matter though. Kill Hopeless1der.
##vote Hopeless1der
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
On November 03 2015 07:01 Chromatically wrote: BH are you bamswoozling us all here
if bamswoozling is good, then clearly yes. If it's bad then deffo no
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
I guess he got his wish; he's confirmed town now.
So who wants to chat about vivax?
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
On November 03 2015 07:05 Chromatically wrote: I guess it makes sense that the mafia either thought that ritoky wouldn't ever get lynched (makes sense given the reactions in the thread to Vivax's point) or some WIFOM that Vivax wouldn't push ritoky right before he nk'd him and stuff.
##Vote: Hopeless1der
Hmm, I hadn't approached it from that second perspective. I don't think it's a good idea to dig into that necessarily. I think in general though whether vivax is scum OR town, it's was fairly clear ritoky was unlynchable. Gumshoe and I both look good for lynching 1G over GB. Ritoky, though, he jumped over at the last minute and made a difference; he was pretty much unlynchable. Vivax pushing on him, hard, and failing to convince ANYONE showed that pretty much no matter what Ritoky wouldn't get lynched. If Vivax is scum, he probably realized he didn't have a good way of breaking off the attack, but killing Ritoky is a good idea because Ritoky is unlynchable anyways. If Vivax is town, similar logic applies; whoever is scum with H1 probably did some thinking and decided that Ritoky wasn't lynchable and needed to be shot. "Would scum Vivax shoot the guy he's pushing, to make himself look better, because it's not something scum would do?" is probably the classic example of WIFOM and shouldn't be thought about TOO much except to make sure that it really is WIFOM.
So Chrom, what do you think of my toneread of Vivax? Take a look at his posts right after the Onegu flip, and how he's angry rather than pleased. Do you agree?
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
On November 03 2015 07:10 Chromatically wrote: Hmm I guess now that I don't have to think about ritoky I can take the extra time to consider BH/gumshoe again? That seems so ridiculous to me though.
This'll be really disappointing if Hopeless is somehow town because I think there's literally no way we can avoid lynching him here.
I'm like, pretty sure H1 is mafia. I know people might feel a bit spoked after GB flipped town but we were all sure that H1 was mafia and had scumreads of various intensity on him independent of GB's alignment for the past couple of days. I think we just need to hang together and not freak out about this.
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
Day 1 Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghand raynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, OneguOnegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos
Day 2 yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax, GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBearXatalos (1): raynpelikoneetHopeless1der (1): Onegu
Day 3 Onegu (5): Xatalos, Blazinghand, GlowingBear, gumshoe, ritokyGlowingBear (4): Vivax, Chromatically, Hopeless1der, Onegu
Day 4 GlowingBear (6): Blazinghand, Hopeless1der, Vivax, Chromatically, gumshoe, ritokyVivax (1): GlowingBear
Updated for reference
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
On November 03 2015 07:25 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2015 07:12 Blazinghand wrote:On November 03 2015 07:05 Chromatically wrote: I guess it makes sense that the mafia either thought that ritoky wouldn't ever get lynched (makes sense given the reactions in the thread to Vivax's point) or some WIFOM that Vivax wouldn't push ritoky right before he nk'd him and stuff.
##Vote: Hopeless1der Hmm, I hadn't approached it from that second perspective. I don't think it's a good idea to dig into that necessarily. I think in general though whether vivax is scum OR town, it's was fairly clear ritoky was unlynchable. Gumshoe and I both look good for lynching 1G over GB. Ritoky, though, he jumped over at the last minute and made a difference; he was pretty much unlynchable. Vivax pushing on him, hard, and failing to convince ANYONE showed that pretty much no matter what Ritoky wouldn't get lynched. If Vivax is scum, he probably realized he didn't have a good way of breaking off the attack, but killing Ritoky is a good idea because Ritoky is unlynchable anyways. If Vivax is town, similar logic applies; whoever is scum with H1 probably did some thinking and decided that Ritoky wasn't lynchable and needed to be shot. "Would scum Vivax shoot the guy he's pushing, to make himself look better, because it's not something scum would do?" is probably the classic example of WIFOM and shouldn't be thought about TOO much except to make sure that it really is WIFOM. So Chrom, what do you think of my toneread of Vivax? Take a look at his posts right after the Onegu flip, and how he's angry rather than pleased. Do you agree? I mean, I would have said that ritoky was the most lynchable out of the three of you for the kind of stuff I talk about in that big post. I don't see you/gumshoe pushing Onegu/Hopeless for days and not telling Hopeless to get in on that action, whereas I thought it was possible that ritoky just bussed on impulse at the last second. But I agree that it's probably not too useful to overanalyze it. I'm not sure what I think of it. I don't feel like mafia Vivax would have been "angry" at you for lynching mafia (as mafia, I don't really feel angry at townies for lynching my partners), but I could see him as mafia getting salty about Onegu getting barely lynched over GB for what he thinks are not good reasons (mafia get mad about being lynched for bad reasons). Maybe he was just annoyed at you for not being on his lynch for bad reasons though. I'm not convinced that it's too alignment-indicative. Wouldn't mafia be careful to not show their emotions in the thread if they were mad after a mafia lynch? The stranger part about it, I think, is that it seems like Vivax really wanted GB over Onegu but didn't really have an opinion on Onegu.
YEah I'm not saying Vivax being mad AT ME was the issue, but more like, when Onegu flipped I remember being really relieved and happy Vivax mostly seemed... upset. And if he were mafia there, it would make sense for him to be upset. At the time, I didn't realize this, since I Thoguht GB was scum; but now that we know GB is town, we know that mafia got REALLY CLOSE to getting 3 town lynches in a row there and sending us to a 3-scum LYLO. We'd be demoralized an dmight give up on the plan after a GB town flip; it's the kind of thing that would be a coup de grace for scum. Instead, we BARELY managed to eek out an Onegu lynch. I feel like Scum would be frustrated by that, especially with that last-minute, zero explanation swap from his game-long scumread, GB, by Ritoky. That basically came out of left field.
At the very least, Vivax should have been moderately happy after that flip. I was ecstatic. GB was shitting himself in joy. Vivax? He was grouchy.
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
On November 03 2015 07:50 Vivax wrote:It helps to know the context sometimes: Show nested quote +On October 30 2015 07:02 Blazinghand wrote:On October 30 2015 07:01 Chromatically wrote: Whew, now we can just lynch 100% mafia gumshoe next and win wat Show nested quote +On October 30 2015 07:02 Vivax wrote:On October 30 2015 07:01 Chromatically wrote: Whew, now we can just lynch 100% mafia gumshoe next and win wat
oh you were screwing me for saying wat! that makes sense
herp derp
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
this is what I get for filter diving. toneread still applies but definitely not for that
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
btw Vivax moments like that are perfect for Ace Attorney screenshots
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
On November 03 2015 08:15 gumshoe wrote: Whats more, a random shot onto ritoky is actually a good sign, mafia take crazy risks when they are not content with the state of things. A shot onto me, chrom or bh would really make no difference in todays lynch, if hopeless is town, maf wouldve killed one of us 3 so that we stay the course, by making a questionable shot, they threaten the current status quo.
Thats pretty wifomy logic, but I feel pretty confident about it (bonus points if vivax or hopeless start talking about why the ritoky shot makes them totes town)
I dunno, do you think there's anything that could REALLY cause us not to lynch H1? You and I are both super on lynching H1, I'm not sure leaving us alive would cause us to... not lynch him? I do get what you're saying though in terms of like "an unusual nk means scum is displseased with the current game flow" and agree with that in principle.
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
On November 03 2015 08:20 gumshoe wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2015 08:19 Blazinghand wrote:On November 03 2015 08:15 gumshoe wrote: Whats more, a random shot onto ritoky is actually a good sign, mafia take crazy risks when they are not content with the state of things. A shot onto me, chrom or bh would really make no difference in todays lynch, if hopeless is town, maf wouldve killed one of us 3 so that we stay the course, by making a questionable shot, they threaten the current status quo.
Thats pretty wifomy logic, but I feel pretty confident about it (bonus points if vivax or hopeless start talking about why the ritoky shot makes them totes town) I dunno, do you think there's anything that could REALLY cause us not to lynch H1? You and I are both super on lynching H1, I'm not sure leaving us alive would cause us to... not lynch him? I do get what you're saying though in terms of like "an unusual nk means scum is displseased with the current game flow" and agree with that in principle. nothing should stop the h1 lynch, but that doesn't mean scum ever stop trying XD
yeah h1 needs to die
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
On November 03 2015 22:28 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2015 11:07 gumshoe wrote:On November 03 2015 10:09 Hopeless1der wrote:On November 03 2015 09:49 gumshoe wrote:On November 03 2015 09:34 Hopeless1der wrote:On November 03 2015 08:36 gumshoe wrote:On November 03 2015 08:29 Hopeless1der wrote:On November 03 2015 08:26 gumshoe wrote:On November 03 2015 08:25 Hopeless1der wrote:On November 03 2015 08:24 gumshoe wrote: [quote]
spend em in the qt : P this is our house. I have a key, I live here too! fine but your being evicted in 2 days / : make sure your stuff is together by then. I'll start packing my things look..... dont get me wrong, its not you man, its us, we just really really prefer vanilla T_T racists. Gumshoe, what happens if I'm town? Then you failed us and we lose ) : for which you should feel really really bad t-t so then you understand the gravity of the situation. Why did you let me live yesterday? I don't magically decide who town lynches, I pushed for you over gb all day yesterday(if you were actually reading you would know that), but bh and chrom weren't having it, I enjoy playing with them and I know they're town, so wasn't exactly eager to shout them into submission when I might have still been wrong about gb. Don't foist your predicament off onto me man : P if this is a mislynch it is utterly and completely your fault. But you are scum so don't worry about it too much / : just try a little harder next time k? If this is a mislynch, it is not 100% my fault. I'll take like 90% of the blame. But here, you want us to lose, and I checked, I'm allowed to help. ##Vote: Hopeless1der
The day is still young, kiddo, so I'm gonna level with you real quick and see what you got. Right now, we're at 3-2 LYLO, right? It's just you, me gummy, Chrom, and Vivax. This game got real small real fast, and it means that now more than ever your incessant lurking and non-contribution is obvious to us. Since you seem a little mad and don't understand what's going on, I'm gonna lay out the offer to you that I make to pretty much everyone in your position:
Don't stop talking. Make a case. You're not the only scum, if you're scum, and if you're town, you should definitely be able to finger a scum or two. Nothing you say will make me think you're town, but convince me someone is EVEN SCUMMIER than you are, and I'll consider lynching that guy first. Don't go quietly into the night; make lots of noise, show me what your'e made of. Maybe you haven't read the game much; don't worry, you only have 4 filters to look at. Take a look at the final vote counts, how people are treating you and each other today, and who's alive and what their filters say. Make a damn case. If you're scum, ignore this, but if you're town, have some damn pride.
Don't just flop around like a useless ass. That's now what you do as town, not ever.
Whatever disagreements I might have with GB and how he plays, he at least understood this: He raged against the night. He didn't vote for himself. He didn't even have his vote on you, he had his vote on Vivax; he was yelling about his case, calling his scumreads scum, arguing with all his might. Granted, this didn't make him look particularly townie, but in retrospect, yeah, this was a fairly town thing to do. It is entirely in the honor of Glowingbear that I'm even talking to you. HE said you were a coinflip, not sure scum, so I'm laying this out for you because GB isn't here to talk in your defense.
Look at how GB went out:
On November 02 2015 02:54 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 02:45 Vivax wrote: Like GB could be here discussing things right this very moment but he isn't cause he's probably loading his shotgun of feels and townie rainbows for the final hour again. What else you want me to discuss, Viv? You want me repeat that the case on me is wrong because meta is bad? Or that I think you're mafia because of tone read and that you repeatedly said you were ready to un scum read me and to sheep my case, then suddenly you town read gum shoe again without interacting with him and there I am again on the chopping block for you? Do you want me to discuss BH? That I think he is too certain on a team that should look impossible? That he has being wishy washy on me day1 and day2, townreading ME from time to time then suddenly I'm 100% scum? Do you want me to say again I think chrome is town for effort and gumshoe is town because I don't think he would act so low? That hopeless could be town especially when Onegu tried to divert the wagon to him? What else do you want?
On November 02 2015 03:28 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 03:01 Chromatically wrote:On November 02 2015 00:46 GlowingBear wrote: After I die, think twice before doing meta cases. Hint: they suck.
Gut feelings say hopeless is town. Facts point out to him being mafia (him voting me like that today is bad).
If you trust gumshoe's appeal to me, he is town. If not, he is always mafia with Onegu. I trust it. I don't think someone can get that low and swear on the life of others and be lying. Really, this is my reason to town read him.
After I die, kill Vivax. Then think twice about BH. I'm town. If I die today, will you reach MYLO? If yes, kill Vivax. If no, get rid of hopeless so you guys can clear your heads.
Read the latest student mafia so you can see I can be this burned out as town. I was town there.
I will vote Vivax because he keeps saying he is ready to in scum read me and was going against gumshoe automatically after I've brought that case. There was no real interaction between them before he decided my case was good and no tral interaction before he decided gumshoe was town again and I was mafia. He's most likely to be mafia after all.
##Vote: Vivax
Still, I have no idea why I'm mafia besides the meta case. Can anyone elaborate on this? What does the underlined mean here? Hopeless is always a question mark. If you can afford a second mislynch (after I die), go for hopeless. If not, then go for Vivax which I think is way scummier.
On November 02 2015 03:38 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 03:35 gumshoe wrote:On November 02 2015 03:30 Blazinghand wrote:On November 02 2015 03:19 gumshoe wrote:On November 02 2015 03:15 Chromatically wrote:On November 02 2015 03:05 gumshoe wrote:On November 02 2015 02:54 Chromatically wrote:On November 02 2015 02:50 gumshoe wrote:On November 02 2015 02:47 Chromatically wrote: Honestly, I don't know what my preference is really (on GB/Hopeless today) so I was just planning on going with whatever most people wanted to do to prevent some crazy voteswitches if people went insane or something. I've thought about what would happen if either player flipped either alignment, and I believe that the next lynch is always the other player.
I want GB because knowing what the wagons are is nice, he's getting harder to lynch (especially if Hopeless is town and we go to LYLO), he's very likely to be mafia from play, and personal gratification.
I want Hopeless because it feels incorrect to let him live another day without playing, and because he's very likely to be mafia just from his vote yesterday.
Maybe this is getting to far ahead, but in the event that we lynched Hopeless today and he flipped mafia, I think it's pretty important that we lynch GB next and not at LYLO. That way, in the event that GB is town, we have maximum information at LYLO on the D3 wagons so we can determine what the most likely last mafia is. I guess this scenario is unlikely though because it's not LYLO if Hopeless is mafia so GB probably gets lynched.
So I'm not sure if any of these reasons is better than the others. sure we can lynch gb tommorow, as I dont see vivax getting lynched till lylo(you want a slippery one, there ya go). But yeah, we need to kill hopeless today, gb and vivax arent scum together so hopeless must be. Yeah... although it's technically possible the team is something insane like GB+ritoky I guess? It's pretty hard to see a world where it's not Hopeless (although it's pretty hard for me to see not GB too). I'm just worried that you won't go on GB again tomorrow gumshoe, you betrayed me once before after yamato . I'm sorry ) : your right I do owe you one, if you really really really wanna kill gb I wont oppose it ok? It's just not the optimal move ) : also if the team could BE something with ritoky, wouldnt it be better to know now before lylo? Gb's kill doesn't tell us anything about that T_T I'm not entirely sure what the correct move is here. GB's kill would tell us about the wagons yesterday (which we don't get form Hopeless), so that we can start considering bus possibilities if GB was town? The only way lynching one of them before the other is a problem is if both of them are town. So, we should lynch whichever one will give us the best information to decide if the other one could be town. If GB is town, then we can start considering whether the team was stacked on him (with Hopeless) or if it's some crazy bus (even though we should lynch Hopeless next anyway). If Hopeless is town, then... I don't think we get very much about other from that? Lynching for information feels bad but I think it's the best tiebreaker? if we lynch gb and hes scum, we probally just lynch hopeless and then vivax the following day anyways, nothing really changes, if we lynch gb and hes town, same story, we dont alter course If we lynch hopeless and hes scum, again, we stay the course if we lynch hopeless and hes town, that means ethier way we have a complex bus between vivax and gb, or someone in the town circle is scum. Basically we have 4 outcomes, and only one of them has us changing course / : the only information that matters is the one you have to act on, therefore if you lynch for info, hopeless is the superior choice. Wait, whey are we abandoning the H1 lynch if GB flips scum/town? I feel like we were all together on this before the Onegu flip: we lynch Onegu, Gb, and H1. Now the Onegu flip happens and everyone's freaking out. Why are we freaking out? Things are going great. I mean, yeah, vivax has turned into a suspicious motherfucker, but we have a spare lynch for him anyways. I think we got this on lockdown. On November 02 2015 02:47 Chromatically wrote: Honestly, I don't know what my preference is really (on GB/Hopeless today) so I was just planning on going with whatever most people wanted to do to prevent some crazy voteswitches if people went insane or something. I've thought about what would happen if either player flipped either alignment, and I believe that the next lynch is always the other player.
I want GB because knowing what the wagons are is nice, he's getting harder to lynch (especially if Hopeless is town and we go to LYLO), he's very likely to be mafia from play, and personal gratification.
I want Hopeless because it feels incorrect to let him live another day without playing, and because he's very likely to be mafia just from his vote yesterday.
Maybe this is getting to far ahead, but in the event that we lynched Hopeless today and he flipped mafia, I think it's pretty important that we lynch GB next and not at LYLO. That way, in the event that GB is town, we have maximum information at LYLO on the D3 wagons so we can determine what the most likely last mafia is. I guess this scenario is unlikely though because it's not LYLO if Hopeless is mafia so GB probably gets lynched.
So I'm not sure if any of these reasons is better than the others. Yeah support for the GB wagon has been gradually shot by scum for the past few days. H1 dies no matter what, if he flips green, then we have to reconsider stuff (as in how likely is it that gb bussed vivax day 1) but I really doubt h1 WONT flip scum. HAHAHA the game where people were acumreading me until LYLO because I was useless. GJ Vivax. And if you really doubt hopeless won't flip scum you should be voting him since you thought I could be town a few hours ago when I made my case on gumshoe. You're clearly mafia and it amuses me people can't see.
On November 02 2015 03:56 GlowingBear wrote: EBWOP:
Anyway, call me lazy as much as you want, but contrary to what you're saying, I've been here giving opinion on people all the time after raging 3 or 4 times.
It should be crystal clear I'm town after I had my reads and my retraction from gumshoe.
Most of all, it is a sad day when a guy with 13 pages of filter is getting lynched over a guy who has only 3. And we both are obvious scum to you all.
On November 02 2015 06:37 GlowingBear wrote: :/
Hey
I was thinking about this
When Jesus died on the cross, whose fault was it? The people that killed him or his because he couldn't prove his innocence?
The man was a pain to play with, and yes, a hilarious awful martyr, but he was also a champ. He made an impression. I can tell you what his reads are, and why he believed them (misguided though he was). So, Hopeless1, where are your cases? Write them. If you're town, don't just write them to save yourself, write them for your honor or your e-peen. Finger both scum with glorious cases if you think you're up to it, then call us bad in the post-game. I fucking DARE you to catch two scum, if you're town. If you do, and we mislynch you, I give you the right to gloat all over me about how you're a superior scumhunter. MAN UP. GlowingBear died and one of the last things he said was that you shouldn't be lynched first. Do it for him, if nothing else.
Show me what you got, if you really got anything to show.
Anything less I'm just ignoring as the flailings of caught scum.
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
Well, looks like we've got this pretty well wrapped up. Hopeless1 hasn't been responding or posting anything. In an hour, we either lose or go to 1-scum LYLO. I can't imagine anything that would convince me to change my vote at this point.
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