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Newbie Student Mafia XIV: Firefly - Page 147

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 16 2015 05:12 GMT
#2921
MoosyDoosy, the tinfoil mafia.

On September 06 2015 09:03 Fidei86 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2015 05:12 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On September 06 2015 05:07 Superbia wrote:
moosy/noobking/copcake/others. Can you guys make some sort of list post on where you stand? Like on everyone. Specifically I would also like people to give an opinion on the whole noobking/rayn conundrum. What do you think of their alignment?

-.- i detailed a post where i lumped people into categories but here you go:

town: raynpelikoneet, yamato77

town lean: Superbia, Alakaslam

null: Breshke, boxerfred, GlowingBear, scott31337, Fidei86

people to look into: nocturnemage/coughinghydra, copcake

???: n00bKing

Okay, so this post. WTF.

I started off by running through all the reads one by one, but the thing that really sticks out here is that MD's previous five pages of filter are basically just a defence of n00b. MD goes as far as to say that he has the best read on n00b of everyone in the game, and that he is basically SURE that this is n00b's town meta. But now that there's a wagon picking up on n00b, he's trying to walk that back? Huh? MD you really need to explain this read for me, because at the moment it really stinks.


Did MD have TMI on n00b?

On September 08 2015 21:11 Fidei86 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 08 2015 09:28 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On September 08 2015 09:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On September 08 2015 09:26 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On September 08 2015 09:24 Superbia wrote:
I'm here. Moosydoosy what do you make of the claims?

rayn counterclaims because he's angry and thinks gb is bad at the game.
i still think gb claim is BS.

fuck you i literally counter claimed because GB claimed my role and is not a doctor.
If GB flips town doctor you lynch me the next day.
It is simple as that.

And you don't think neither of us is mafia which automatically makes you scum.

no this can be false because i think you are angry as you are right now and that you're putting enough faith into your gb read to try and kill him.


Moosy, I'm trying to get a handle on whether you actually believe what you're saying here. Let me get this straight - you think that it is possible TOWN Rayn is fake counter-claiming DOCTOR GlowingBear, because Rayn is so angry at GB?

Let's consider that for a moment. When you get a claim/counter-claim situation as town then you absolutely have to, 100% of the time, lynch whichever of the claimers you don't believe. If they flip blue, you lynch the other claimer. You do this because there is no reason to think that the town claimer is lying. The reason for THAT is because if Rayn is VT and he's CCing GB, he will know we willl have to lynch them both. Town don't lie on these sorts of CCs because if they are wrong, it means two guarantees mislynches, and it ALSO means that town waste two days.

Let's say GB flips blue. We then lynch Rayn. We have to as he is a confirmed liar. If Rayn then flips green, we're in triple lylo with no doctor.

Put another way, town Rayn would be staking the entire game on his read of GB. More or less. Rayn might be emotional, but he's not a moron. I just refuse to believe that he's that idiotic and egotistical. I have been in voice-Mafia games where he has done this (I think), but those are just quick throwaway games for fun - this is a huge forum game where everyone is putting in hours and hours of time. It's very different.

The only reason not to scum read Moosy is that his read of the situation is so far off the beaten path, and makes so little sense, I don't see scum pushing it.

Rayn - if you are VT then you will need to personally apologies to every town member for throwing.

Everyone else- the vote today is GB 100%. Please read what I said earlier above about the context of Rayn and GB's claim, if you're unsure.


More TMI?
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 16 2015 05:13 GMT
#2922
On September 16 2015 14:02 scott31337 wrote:
There's only one mafia left and Alakaslam and Superbia suck.


this. so much this.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 16 2015 05:15 GMT
#2923
If MoosyDoosy is in three man lylo with Superbia and Fidei....oh man.

More tinfoil.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 16 2015 05:16 GMT
#2924
26 pages in MD's filter. Alright this is going to wait until lunch. FML.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 16 2015 05:20 GMT
#2925
Right now, I'd say <5% on Fidei and <5% on scott.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
September 16 2015 05:32 GMT
#2926
On September 16 2015 14:12 NocturneMage wrote:
MoosyDoosy, the tinfoil mafia.

Show nested quote +
On September 06 2015 09:03 Fidei86 wrote:
On September 06 2015 05:12 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On September 06 2015 05:07 Superbia wrote:
moosy/noobking/copcake/others. Can you guys make some sort of list post on where you stand? Like on everyone. Specifically I would also like people to give an opinion on the whole noobking/rayn conundrum. What do you think of their alignment?

-.- i detailed a post where i lumped people into categories but here you go:

town: raynpelikoneet, yamato77

town lean: Superbia, Alakaslam

null: Breshke, boxerfred, GlowingBear, scott31337, Fidei86

people to look into: nocturnemage/coughinghydra, copcake

???: n00bKing

Okay, so this post. WTF.

I started off by running through all the reads one by one, but the thing that really sticks out here is that MD's previous five pages of filter are basically just a defence of n00b. MD goes as far as to say that he has the best read on n00b of everyone in the game, and that he is basically SURE that this is n00b's town meta. But now that there's a wagon picking up on n00b, he's trying to walk that back? Huh? MD you really need to explain this read for me, because at the moment it really stinks.


Did MD have TMI on n00b?

Show nested quote +
On September 08 2015 21:11 Fidei86 wrote:
On September 08 2015 09:28 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On September 08 2015 09:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On September 08 2015 09:26 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On September 08 2015 09:24 Superbia wrote:
I'm here. Moosydoosy what do you make of the claims?

rayn counterclaims because he's angry and thinks gb is bad at the game.
i still think gb claim is BS.

fuck you i literally counter claimed because GB claimed my role and is not a doctor.
If GB flips town doctor you lynch me the next day.
It is simple as that.

And you don't think neither of us is mafia which automatically makes you scum.

no this can be false because i think you are angry as you are right now and that you're putting enough faith into your gb read to try and kill him.


Moosy, I'm trying to get a handle on whether you actually believe what you're saying here. Let me get this straight - you think that it is possible TOWN Rayn is fake counter-claiming DOCTOR GlowingBear, because Rayn is so angry at GB?

Let's consider that for a moment. When you get a claim/counter-claim situation as town then you absolutely have to, 100% of the time, lynch whichever of the claimers you don't believe. If they flip blue, you lynch the other claimer. You do this because there is no reason to think that the town claimer is lying. The reason for THAT is because if Rayn is VT and he's CCing GB, he will know we willl have to lynch them both. Town don't lie on these sorts of CCs because if they are wrong, it means two guarantees mislynches, and it ALSO means that town waste two days.

Let's say GB flips blue. We then lynch Rayn. We have to as he is a confirmed liar. If Rayn then flips green, we're in triple lylo with no doctor.

Put another way, town Rayn would be staking the entire game on his read of GB. More or less. Rayn might be emotional, but he's not a moron. I just refuse to believe that he's that idiotic and egotistical. I have been in voice-Mafia games where he has done this (I think), but those are just quick throwaway games for fun - this is a huge forum game where everyone is putting in hours and hours of time. It's very different.

The only reason not to scum read Moosy is that his read of the situation is so far off the beaten path, and makes so little sense, I don't see scum pushing it.

Rayn - if you are VT then you will need to personally apologies to every town member for throwing.

Everyone else- the vote today is GB 100%. Please read what I said earlier above about the context of Rayn and GB's claim, if you're unsure.


More TMI?


The first post I do not see it at all - so help us out there what you are thinking.

The second is a possibility though - a lot of wording about GB.

Breshke got roleblocked and was guessed correctly by mafia as the doctor n2/d3.

Fidei pointed out that the doctor cannot save the same person two nights in a row. Breshke's confirmed doc. Rayn died. Breshke was not faught on his save.

I'm like in super tinfoil world here if Fidei is mafia.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
September 16 2015 05:48 GMT
#2927
I see what you are referring to now - that MD was hard defending N00bking as town the whole game - but shows there he's a ??? and Fidei pointed it out.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
September 16 2015 05:54 GMT
#2928
On September 16 2015 09:13 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Eh, I’m pretty sure I’ll die. There’s literally no reason to keep me around unless mafia is trying to force some really hard tinfoil on me. oh yea, NocturneMage, did u ever finish that tinfoil case on me? I was kinda expecting it because I thought it’d be funny.


I disagree with this personally - would you elaborate?
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
September 16 2015 06:10 GMT
#2929
On September 16 2015 14:15 NocturneMage wrote:
If MoosyDoosy is in three man lylo with Superbia and Fidei....oh man.

More tinfoil.


Help me out here though -

You're dead tomorrow.

It's me/Scott, Slam, Fidei, MD, and Superbia.

Only one mafia and four are town.

Only town have partners - mafia does not.

Superbia and Slam are sucking right now - I believe Slam's IRL excuse - Superbia has none at the moment.

I've checked some tinfoil theories that MD is mafia - and I have to go in the cause that if he is - I give him the game for him on CopCake the WHOLE game. This theory is unreasonable - doesn't fit - doesn't make sense - deserves to win.

If Fidei is mafia - yeah - <5% - basically tinfoil - I've read this thread multiple times - He was off on things, but his progression fits. I thought he was the cop but I was incorrect - and mafia didn't know either. It's why I townread him a little more than other people.
Md had a decent point about Fidei "assuming" we are going to LYLO though.

I've posted Superbia's wishy washyness - and reading the D1 filter on how the GB lynch went down - I'm about 89% sure he's the last mafia - unsure about GB - unsure about Copcake - the claims - I've posted all of this. Should be the lynch tomorrow.

Slam did the magic phat bus (I'm claiming those words) on GB the whole game too if he's mafia. He was really posty (and was Breshke) that I feel fits a more town meta. I think I may break out some TL mafia database to back this up. Slam is still #2 and should be lynched next - 15%?. Reasonably, nothing else makes sense.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
September 16 2015 06:16 GMT
#2930
On September 05 2015 08:33 Superbia wrote:
I'm about to head off. Won't be around tomorrow until around this time. Some incoherent thoughts (pretty tired).

Think rayn's response to GB's claim is over the top. I don't think there is any need for any blue to out at the moment. Pretty sure we can get productive d1 going without any blue shenanigans. Actually kinda makes me dislike rayn, but I had townie vibes from him early on so whatever. Also he just called me town so I'm fine with him being town for now.

Curious to see what comes off rayn/yamato co-op stuff.

Initially disliked yamato's opening. After what rayn just said it's okay for now. Interested in rayn's follow up opinion.

Don't really like moosy I think. Especially the purposely random typing (different from pre-game). Also can't really find a reasoning behind his posts yet (might be bc I'm tired).

Dislike breshke who feels bitter in his latest post (mafia trait imo). Feels weird to see him admit to scummy-esque things. IDK what he's doing as either alignment. Have to see later.

GB is idk. Don't really care about the (fake) claim that much tbh.

Rest also IDK.

So yeah. Follow rayn for now probably. Don't claim blue though. No matter what he says. I'll see where you guys are at tomorrow.


I know I linked this post in my filter for a reason.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
September 16 2015 06:35 GMT
#2931
On September 06 2015 04:13 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2015 01:53 raynpelikoneet wrote:
GlowingBear your vote isn't very good.

+1


I may have a bit of confirmation bias but I'm pretty confident Superbia is the last mafia.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
September 16 2015 06:39 GMT
#2932
On September 15 2015 05:26 NocturneMage wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 07 2015 03:35 Superbia wrote:
I'm here. Haven't read past few pages. Game kinda feels hard.

rayn/yamato still very town.
Stuck on moosy's alignment. Something feels off compared to previous game filters. Not sure what, still reading. His associative read triggered all sorts of re-evaluations.
Stuck on noobking's alignment. His post style feels different from his mafia post style. Planning on reading into his meta after moosy. Feels like moosy may have spewn him town if moosy is mafia. IDK
copcake tied into this. Also stuck on her alignment.
Don't know about slam/gb. Both seem very much on the sidelines.
bf superlurk. Last game he did this he was PR and got lynched d1 for it. To be honest, I think I may have the PRs down to a small circle already (of either mafia or PR) and he's not among them. Need to hear from people who have played with him.

So yeah. Still very much in the process of evaluation. Here for questions and talking if people are around. Specifically the 3 above. Very busy tabbing between game filters though. So don't expect a superquick response.


Show nested quote +
On September 07 2015 06:16 Superbia wrote:
Like the problem is that I'm stucking between worlds right now. And this is mostly caused by the fact that both rayn and yamato believe in a world which I don't really believe in right now. Like they both think copcake is town, and they both think scott is town. I think they're both town and decent/good players. This leaves me confused.


Show nested quote +
On September 07 2015 05:15 Superbia wrote:
On September 07 2015 05:13 CopCake wrote:
On September 07 2015 05:08 Superbia wrote:
You think moosy would set up an associative lynch on you that is like this:
- CopCake is mafia if n00bking flips town
- CopCake is town if n00bking flips mafia.

If he's mafia??


there are two options:

He is mafia with noobking and someday had the confidence they are going to get me lynched and be like oooppsss

Moosy is mafia, knows that noobking is town for obs reasons coz he is mafia, is enjoying this lynch and is setting me up for the next day.



Do you think really that think the first option is a logical world?


Show nested quote +
On September 07 2015 05:18 Superbia wrote:
(It's only logical if you're mafia with exactly those 2)

Like he has been pretty much tunneling you the entire day. Your alignment has been iffy for many players (including myself).

If you're town and he's mafia with noobking (which is the world you're proposing), then he's throwing away his miss lynch. Hard. He is allowing his team mate to get lynched d1 and he is throwing away a/his miss lynch for the next day.


Show nested quote +
On September 07 2015 05:18 Superbia wrote:
On September 07 2015 05:16 CopCake wrote:
On September 07 2015 05:15 Superbia wrote:
On September 07 2015 05:13 CopCake wrote:
On September 07 2015 05:08 Superbia wrote:
You think moosy would set up an associative lynch on you that is like this:
- CopCake is mafia if n00bking flips town
- CopCake is town if n00bking flips mafia.

If he's mafia??


there are two options:

He is mafia with noobking and someday had the confidence they are going to get me lynched and be like oooppsss

Moosy is mafia, knows that noobking is town for obs reasons coz he is mafia, is enjoying this lynch and is setting me up for the next day.



Do you think really that think the first option is a logical world?


godfather dude.


What does the godfather have anything to do with this?


Show nested quote +
On September 07 2015 05:48 Superbia wrote:
On September 07 2015 05:44 yamato77 wrote:
I'm just going to default to sheeping rayn because no one seems particularly interested in listening to me


My apologies yamato, I've been too focused on people I think may be scummy.

Rayn/yamato, what do you think of the fact that copcake thinks a mafia circle with both moosy and noobking is likely? Even though moosy (if he's mafia) would (in his world) lock clear copcake as town if noobking is mafia.


Show nested quote +
On September 07 2015 06:47 Superbia wrote:
Oh yeah. Opinions on noobking/glowingbear/copcake please pre-flip. From everyone.

Noobking- Mafia
Glowingbear- Neutral (town-lean before but yamato/rayn buttfucking town-lean)
Copcake- No idea.


So all d1 superbia struggles with Copcake's alignment. Nearly all of d1.

And then out of nowhere, this?

Show nested quote +
On September 09 2015 00:49 Superbia wrote:
Cake

After playing voice mafia with cake I think she's town this game. Looks similar to her voice-mafia town tells.


Could "scumperbia" just have tried to ease off when the pressure was clearly off?

any input?


Re-read the bold NM showed here.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
September 16 2015 06:40 GMT
#2933
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=24858954

Quotes kind of hide it.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
September 16 2015 07:02 GMT
#2934
On September 16 2015 09:13 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Eh, I’m pretty sure I’ll die. There’s literally no reason to keep me around unless mafia is trying to force some really hard tinfoil on me. oh yea, NocturneMage, did u ever finish that tinfoil case on me? I was kinda expecting it because I thought it’d be funny.


Your confidence here of you dying makes me wonder from my point of view.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 16 2015 09:35 GMT
#2935
@Scott

From my perspective, I always thought it was likely to be Superbia. But then, out of nowhere, Slam comes out and says that he wants out of the game, having racked up 19 pages of filter. That threw me a lot. So all of a sudden, I really am not sure about whether it's Superbia or Slam. I hope we lynch correctly first off, but since I'm not sure now, I'm not confident we will.

I've been really busy these last couple of days, and I just got dragged into another game. But this evening I will re-read MD and Scott's filters. Because I'd be a lousy town if I didn't at least consider the possibility.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 16 2015 09:36 GMT
#2936
The weird thing is that scott, MD, NM and me all seem to have reached exactly the same conclusion, and only one of us, if any, can be mafia. That makes me think that if you guys *is* mafia, you're a lot lot lot better than I'm currently giving you credit for.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 16 2015 13:01 GMT
#2937
I know Superbia (shocking, I know right?) took up the topic of TMI bussing on Slam's part. There was Slam' push on Breshke and then the drop which I really didn't care for. The push was organic I felt but the drop was not. It just felt weird.

Fidei making comments on lylo and stuff I think is just him scumreading on superbia as superbia wants him dead hard and mafia superbia may want to keep him alive.

As for MD being in three person lylo, the premise is that if someone that is super towny should be killed off and if he's alive for too long he might be mafia. Like, if there is no logical reason that he should be alive over X then there's an issue. The downside to this is that mafia may have legit reasons for picking that person to be alive, he may be tunnelled on their target of choice/whatever or might be more persuadable or whatever.

And if you are mafia (Scott) then you have severely broken meta but even ignoring that you just overall have a very towny game.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 16 2015 13:05 GMT
#2938
On September 16 2015 18:36 Fidei86 wrote:
The weird thing is that scott, MD, NM and me all seem to have reached exactly the same conclusion, and only one of us, if any, can be mafia. That makes me think that if you guys *is* mafia, you're a lot lot lot better than I'm currently giving you credit for.


There's zero chance I'm alive after the daypost. If I am still alive it makes no sense as I am borderline confirmed (not truly confirmed until I die) and it's a severely suboptimal play for mafia. The only reason I can even think of an outed blue being kept alive is if they are playing otherwise very poorly for town where it's worth killing off a more threatening or influential VT than they, but we are in a late enough stage in the game where this isn't the case.

rayn/yamato are long gone and nearly everyone else now are on the same page.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
September 16 2015 13:11 GMT
#2939
scott, how do you know geript is the Mafia coach?
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 16 2015 13:12 GMT
#2940
I'll probably try tomorrow and see if I can get you guys on the right path again. We'll probably end up lynching me though. Meh. We'll see.
Minimal effort.
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