[M][T] The New Personality Mafia - Page 190

Tictock

United States6052 Posts

August 31 2015 10:15 GMT

#3781

Gerpit, is there any reason besides FF's greencheck on you to confirm you are town?

Also I don't get your mason thing. So you just get to open up a mason QT once per cycle with whomever you choose, whenever you care to open it up?

Interested in what meta you get for me... far as I know nobody has really tried to meta read me yet.

geript

10024 Posts

August 31 2015 10:58 GMT

#3782

Haven't slept. Can't sleep. But basically:
Greencheck. How I've played. Clear thought process. Despite a 'bad' voting record; I've been wrong for good reasons (except maybe chez; but he was begging me to vote him in at idk why and acting a bit more TSM chez there). This just isn't my scum play.

Re: mason. I mason people during the day phase. I just knew on D1 I wanted to be masoned with Wave. After that I wanted to start the day masoned to people to get the most use of said shitty role. Plus, I wasn't sure how long the hosts would stick around so I figured I'd save a bit of trouble/bookkeeping by getting it done in that window. So I'd try to be around to get the night deaths so I could send them who I wanted to QT with. But really that only affected the Yamato choice. I think I sent in the Damdred/chez ones without asking during the hour window but I'm too lazy to double check that. It's just pretty straight forward mason except that I choose mason at start of day.

geript

10024 Posts

August 31 2015 13:16 GMT

#3783

Interesting, I just got a QT with OWS.

geript

10024 Posts

August 31 2015 13:30 GMT

#3784

Correction. I am not in a QT with OWS.

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

August 31 2015 13:38 GMT

#3785

Yeh that was weird.

JudgeJudy

188 Posts

August 31 2015 13:41 GMT

#3786

On August 31 2015 13:42 geript wrote:
Either way, if I lose my power, it's kinda moot. I guess there's a theoretical possibility that someone visited OWS before but idk who that'd be. His role does sound kinda mafia oriented considering the setup but eh. I still want JJ and TT to full claim if they haven't already. I don't really remember what if anything they've claimed.

[/QUOTE]

I'm a Mad Hatter. Not sure if TT has revealed more than that pic about his role. Really disappointed that I don't have something that I could put to better use, but it is what it is. Claiming whether I still have my bomb or where it currently may be doesn't have much benefit, so I'll leave it at that.

Now on to the ritoky stuff...

geript

10024 Posts

August 31 2015 13:48 GMT

#3787

that's not exactly reassuring JJ

JudgeJudy

188 Posts

August 31 2015 14:07 GMT

#3788

On August 31 2015 22:48 geript wrote:
that's not exactly reassuring JJ

meh claiming a role that "reassures" you is not exactly on my to-do list.

On August 31 2015 17:15 Tictock wrote:
Obi is still floating in null land for me, nothing to truely push me either way on him. I don't like the fact that he waited so long with his nuke, but w/e trying to read alignment out of that is probably too deep in wifom to mean anything. Something about the way he is interacting and posting today has me leaning a little more town on him.

Besides, I honestly don't see getting much information out of his lynch.

Uhh aren't we long past the point of lynching for information? I mean there is probably only one mafia left. Who cares if the lynch doesn't provide information if the game simply ends?

JudgeJudy

188 Posts

August 31 2015 14:11 GMT

#3789

On August 31 2015 11:55 ritoky wrote:
Let's begin with the easiest and work our way to the even easier to dispel about this:

1) I am green checked by a confirmed cop in a game that has demonstrated no real inclination of having a framer. In the event you believe there is 1 mafia left, that mafia is in fact a ROLEBLOCKER not a FRAMER: how do we know this? Fidei was ROLEBLOCKED and I did not do it. Even moreso you have to believe that I was framed specifically on N2 in which Rels checked me, which is already an unlikely rabbit hole you're going down. Should we continue or is it already over? Pretty sure it's already over, but let's go for argument's sake.

Err I think you refuted this yourself later on, but yeah tube the framer was still alive on night two. I don't really have any more response to this part because it is speculation. I think the framer was likely used as a cover, rather than a frame and I think the other points that I have made outweigh the low odds that the cop happened to check you that night.

On August 31 2015 11:55 ritoky wrote:
2) I shot 3p, nuked mafia, lynched 2 of the 3 mafia. Thank you for listing my pro-town achievements thus far this game and giving me no credit for it. You make a big deal out of my day 2 vote, when I am RNG voting for an upgrade so I fail to see any point about that. Day 3 is irrelevant cuz you see I am townie. And about "ritoky never does meaningless stuff for two cycles"; bro go read my games I am useless a lot longer some times.

Well no offense, but those pro-town achievements are rather lame. LT had a red check on him. Everyone (except geript who was off in Lalaland) was voting LT so you can't exactly hand out gold stars to everyone. Same thing with chezinu. There was a red check on him and he was obvious mafia at that point. Every single player (lol except our good friend geript) was voting him. You nuked the traitor on day two and I'll give you a thumbs up for that, but like I said, mafia likely didn't know he was mafia on day two, so any town cred is null and void there as well.

On August 31 2015 11:55 ritoky wrote:
3) Your entire yamato thing literally says "he shot someone that was good for town, but i think he is mafia thus did it for town cred". You're literally calling me scummy for something you're admitting was town.

Naw I'm not calling you scummy there. I'm saying that shooting the troll isn't something that mafia is incapable of doing. It didn't lead my to my mafia verdict, it simply wasn't enough to get me to conclude town.

On August 31 2015 11:55 ritoky wrote:
4) I don't know what you're talking about with this 1 person 1 kp stuff. I have played MULTIPLE games where 1 player is capable of delivering all KP, and to think that anyone OTHER THAN THE UNTRACKABLE DUDE was delivering KP prior to his death is plain naive thinking.

The vast majority work where 1 player carries out 1 kill each.

On August 31 2015 11:55 ritoky wrote:
5) I am confirmed

No?

On August 31 2015 11:55 ritoky wrote:
6) As for the no evidence of me solving the game, I would like to refer you to me doing vote analysis, PoE, attempting to discern roles, speculating about cult, being generally confused about what is going on, and such from my filter. You obviously missed those posts when you contrived this mess.

Coloring the lynch votes can be useful, but it's not like anything new was brought to the table. Pointing out that the rayn voters look good and the non-rayn voters look bad isn't a huge revelation. Sure there may have been a few things, but not enough.

On August 31 2015 11:55 ritoky wrote:
We are done here, your arguments are all pretty meh other than I roleplayed rather than played day 1 and some of day 2, which is a valid criticism of myself and many others this game.

The problem is that is the basis of my case. There is a difference between roleplaying by throwing a gif in each post and roleplaying by RNGing your vote for the first two cycles of the game, tunneling those players to death, and not doing much of interest otherwise.

JudgeJudy

188 Posts

August 31 2015 14:19 GMT

#3790

On August 31 2015 13:16 Damdred wrote:

Show nested quote +

that part is true 6 mafia+traitor +jester seems a bit weird but there are a ton of cops.

This math doesn't add up....rayn, tube, and LT have flipped mafia, chez has flipped traitor.

If it were 6 mafia + traitor + jester that would mean there are 3 mafia alive.

The scenarios we need to worry about are either:

4 mafia + traitor + jester (1 mafia remaining)

or

5 mafia + traitor + jester (2 mafia remaining)

I'm kinda thinking the setup is 4 mafia + traitor + jester, mostly because I would really struggle to point out two mafia, although onegu's previous 21 (22?) player blue setup had six mafia so it is not out of the question.

Damdred

15669 Posts

August 31 2015 14:58 GMT

#3791

Big fingers make phone stuff hard sometimes.

I actually think tt is the best lynch today.

JudgeJudy

188 Posts

August 31 2015 15:01 GMT

#3792

On August 31 2015 15:00 geript wrote:
Looking at the votes, the most notable IMO is TT's d1 vote. For playing as well as he has, he ended up throwing away his vote on a random person. That's kinda incongruous with the rest of his play.

Why does this argument apply to TT, but not ritoky? ritoky did this two cycles in a row. First with fidei who had only two votes and then with FF who had only two votes.

Take a look at this case against FF. He essentially posts a bunch of quotes that make FecalFeast look town, then posts a series of quotes where he could possibly be mafia, and states that he should be considered for a vote.

Later on in the day he eventually posts FF as town in his list post, but stays on him.

On August 23 2015 13:05 ritoky wrote:
rayn - subs in and does balls. not town rayn, maybe cuz sub and not initially in the game but he is giving 0 shits so pressure him until he does or lynch him.

In the same post he calls rayn mafia. Yet rather than push his mafia read, he never brings him up again, despite quoting a post that essentially asks "who wants to switch over to rayn?" and instead keeps his vote on a player he doesn't even think is mafia during the most important cycle in the game. All for this "upgrade"?

On August 31 2015 13:04 geript wrote:
So I'm guessing it's 1 mafia and 1-2 3P, kinda depends. Ritoky greencheck makes him 99% town. Damdred is essentially 3p. My greencheck makes me 99% town.

Could you explain where you came up with 99% for ritoky's green check? As I explained earlier in my large post, mafia almost certainly benefits from using their framer as a cover rather than a frame. Do you disagree with this analysis?

So say mafia decides to frame one of their members from the check.

Here are the players that are alive at that point.

The Shining
Rels
Fidei86
Yamato77
Breshke
geript
Damdred
JudgeJudy
ObiWanShinobi
Ritoky
Tictock
Tubesock
Fecalfeastt
Lord Tolkien
Chezinu
Beneather
KelsierSC

You can eliminate players that we have confirmed as non-mafia because like I said, there is a very high likleyhood that there are using the cover:

Fidei86
geript
Damdred
JudgeJudy
ObiWanShinobi
Ritoky
Tictock
Tubesock
Lord Tolkien
Chezinu

We can also eliminate chezinu because mafia likely isn't aware that he is the traitor. We can also eliminate tube because he is already covered by his godfather passive. If you are town you can also eliminate yourself (I've removed JJ in this example, anyone else would remove themselves). I doubt they would frame damdred as town if he is indeed third party. You can decide for yourself whether or not you want to eliminate him from the possible mafia list. Since geript and ritoky was checked on the same night, you can eliminate one of the two since the framer can't frame both at once. I've chosen to eliminate geript because I think it is more likely he is town. Finally, you can eliminate any players in the group that you think are almost certainly town. I'm still town reading fidei and TT pretty strongly so I'm going to remove them. If you want to play it safe, you can leave those in.

Group A:
Lord Tolkien

Group B:
ObiWanShinobi
Ritoky

We know there is 1 mafia in group A. Now lets say there is 1 mafia in group B . Suppose the framer flips a coin between framing the unflipped mafia or the flipped one. If it lands heads they frame LT, if it lands tails, they frame the mafia in group B. Now we also know that ritoky was watched at the HTS kill which is a 50/50 chance of the godfather carrying out a kill. In essence, those two coinflips cancel themselves out. So you're left with a 50/50 within group B, which is far closer than the 99% you suggest. Even if you frame completely at random it isn't 99%. You can apply a different type of analysis (like making assumptions that mafia wouldn't frame the same guy they are shooting) and the pool still ends up rather small.

I know there are a lot of assumptions in this thinking, but again. I'm not using this to prove that ritoky was framed. I'm simply saying that the other evidence is strong enough that a cop check like this doesn't automatically eliminate him from consideration. At some point in a themed game you need to rely on behavioral analysis rather than blue roles.

Damdred

15669 Posts

August 31 2015 15:08 GMT

#3793

Tt tell me when you are here I have an important question for you

geript

10024 Posts

August 31 2015 15:50 GMT

#3794

Here's the 99% thing. Like the number of times I've seen a player framed and checked the same night are super low. Idk how many games I've played or read, but I can only remember like 2 instances of correct frames in like 2-4 years of playing. Only one of those was in a large game. It's just not that common. Plus, even on N2 idk who I'd frame. Like ritoky, OWS, Rels, Kelsier and FF are all decent frame targets; I'm potentially not a bad frame target (who knows maybe I'm a miller). I kinda like the idea of framing one of the cop claims due to higher likelihood of cross checks. But that's my thinking. Who knows what the scum team valued.

Damdred

15669 Posts

August 31 2015 17:23 GMT

#3795

Tt is hiding from me

ObiWanShinobi

United States8089 Posts

August 31 2015 17:35 GMT

#3796

On September 01 2015 02:23 Damdred wrote:
Tt is hiding from me

Survivor so scry.

Onegu

United States9699 Posts

August 31 2015 19:33 GMT

#3797

I just got out of the hostpital. Will read things over and what not shortly

ritoky

United States6851 Posts

August 31 2015 20:19 GMT

#3798

@JJ you believe all of this?

On August 31 2015 12:35 ritoky wrote:
Just so everyone is clear, this is what you have to believe to not see me as confirmed, but as mafia:

1) Mafia elected to frame 1 of their own players (me) on night 2 which just so happened to be the night that a confirmed cop checked me.

2) This is a game is a game in which 1 kp is delivered by 1 player and no more.

3) The mafia chose on night 1....NIGHT 1 to NOT use their unseeable player to carry KP. Specifically to the most widely town read person in the game.

4) I would use factional KP on an afk/uninterested player in yamato AND claim it; rather than using it on a vocal player who is against me.

If you believe all of that, then you can call me not confirmed town. That is literally the world you have to live in.

If so, I don't really know what to say to you. You're living in the world of 1% rather than the world of 99%. The entire premise of what you're saying is that the game mechanically doesn't function the way in which most mafia games function and that a green check was framed on the night he happened to be investigated. If that is where you want your head to be I can't help you this game or you're not town. The confluence of events you're believing is so tinfoil.