EPTAs Scott would say, don't worry boys, this wagon is hitting Mafia for sure!
Newbie Student Mafia XII - Page 43
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
As Scott would say, don't worry boys, this wagon is hitting Mafia for sure! | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On July 18 2015 22:17 Half the Sky wrote: James is probably messing with us. He is probably the last Mafia. /tinfoil  (Yes Fidei's name is actually James...I play Dota too much with him. <3 Maybe you can join us too Grokken if you don't mind 3k scrubs )Teams being stacked is very possible. Teams are RNGed by most hosts. Skill is irrelevant. 100% This. I've been having the same tinfoil theory. It's pretty simple, of all the people on the Sulf wagon D1 Fidei is easily the most likely to be Mafia bussing. There are 3 solid reasons for it, then some WIFOM evidence from Fidei's reaction here recently. 1) I brought this point up a long time ago, and I always thought it was interesting how much Fidei has fought me on it. Fidei was ignoring Sulf for the majority of D1 and only appears in his filter after n00b points him out, he places his vote only after n00b and HtS are clearly moving to lynch Sulf. Semi-WIFOM scum reasoning here: + Show Spoiler + Scum!Fidei is absolutly smart enough to see that n00b and HtS are strong town players and that Sulf is being pushed hard, plus at the time that he joins the wagon there wasn't too much danger that it would go through (we also have the MD self vote stuff going on). In the event that the Sulf wagon does gain steam then Fidei has gotten massive towncred for being on that wagon which is perfect for him. Sheeping 2 strong town like this is a solid move for scum when you see they have a good case on your teammate. 2) I see pretty much no way that n00b or HtS can be scum. Most of this is from a couple of their posts where they mind melded so well. They each posted longish posts about more or less the same thing within minuets of each other. If we didnt have one confirmed scum outside HtS/n00b/Fidei I would be worried about a world where both are scum, but since only one of those 3 could possibly be scum here I think these posts strongly support HtS ad n00b being town (sorry not looking up the exact posts right now, maybe later). Also it seems unlikely still that n00b or HtS would actively try to Bus Sulf on D1, much more likely scum move is to jump on a newly formed and fairly strong looking wagon that happens to be a bus than to start that wagon yourself. 3) This point is a bit WIFOM and I'm going to pack a couple of thoughts into one point here so bear with me a little. Fidei more or less drops off after D1. Having gotten pretty solid towncred he would not feel like he needs to do much anymore. Still what he does do D2 is largely push Ghandi. Fidei gives a read on TJ where he agree's with HtS but thats all he says. I dont have the time to do much checking right now, but someone should dig through Fidei's filter and see how he's been reading TJ and how that read changes. I'm willing to bet that TJ is hardly mentioned at all. Also, anyone remember this? On July 17 2015 06:18 Fidei86 wrote: The TJH lynch has been explained at length, and it's almost certainly the correct one. I stopped recording points on him when I got to #7. Also, whereas Ghandi was still trying to solve the game all of D2, TJH did nothing constructive at all. I called Fidei out since he claimed to have a bunch of reasons why TJ was scum, but never shared them. He had made 7 points about Ghandi D2 though... When asked about this, here is Fidei's reply. On July 18 2015 02:08 Fidei86 wrote: Also, re my seven points on TJH, I actually did write them down on a piece of paper. Stupidly I didn't bring it when I left the office. However, the one that hasn't been said before I don't think is that in his first post he said he was an incredibly strong player and liked to pick up on and tunnel on small logical inconsistencies. He was right, he did nitpick at Grokken's first post and at my getting a bit shirty with Moosy. But when it came to it, he didn't take either of those reads anywhere and he basically coasted through D1. Oh, and something I just thought of - HTS' case on Sulfurus was incredibly strong. I'm ashamed of myself now for not spotting what she did, because it was incredibly chronic. I really need to go back to D1 and look at who had the chance to read and consider the wagon, but decided to go elsewhere. Because either they are misguided town or scum. 4) This one is a bit Ironic to me. Fidei accused me of this earlier... On July 18 2015 02:02 Fidei86 wrote: Overall I would describe your posting as going at 100kph in a 40kph zone. You're shifting your reads on AFK players based on tiny shreds of evidence, or on nothing at all. You also were "reluctant" to town read me at first for no real reason, then you later moved on to say that the entire Sulfurus wagon was pure, again with no new evidence whatsoever. This was more or less Fidei's thinking on why I could be scum as well. The funny thing here... this is exactly how Fidei has been acting since Grok claimed and made this post... On July 18 2015 14:57 Grokken wrote: Not sure why I'm even asking, seems like the only way we can lose now is if HtS/n00b/Fidei is the last mafia, which is unlikely to say the least. Fidei is suddenly all over SW. I know he had mentioned him before so it's not a read change or anything but he was mildly supporting the idea and now has it kicked into high gear. That tone is fairly prevalent in all of Fidei's posts after Grok suggested one of HtS/n00b/Fidei possibly being mafia. While it is completely possible that TJ was trying to distance himself from SW if they are indeed scum mates this doesn't add up very well. Like in that world TJ would have to be planning to somehow survive the game after claiming cop and getting his partner lynched. That just doesn't add up, no way does TJ survive into LyLo after claiming, just the idea of Mafia not picking him off seems absurd unless somehow Medi survives into 3 man LyLo as well. Super risky scum play there... Conclusion: Fidei is very likely Mafia here. Thankfully Town now has plenty of intel that I think this is an easily won game. We simply PoE out anyone still under suspicion , starting with Fidei > Scott > SW > WP. Main point here, don't let Fidei survive till LyLo/MyLo and similarly pick lynch targets with this in mind. /Game | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
I touched on it, but my case was a little thrown together. Wont have time to do all the proper leg-work till sometime D4. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On July 18 2015 19:36 Fidei86 wrote: I couldn't have solved this game without the following people: HTS - so glad I was town with you. I think if you had rolled scum, it would have been GG. n00b - I won't eff with you I promise Grokken - Bro, you did a nice job as cop, checking exactly the right people and trying to help town without making yourself a target for NK. Props. I'm very impressed. You've got a bright future here. TT - Buddy, what can I say. I'm sorry about the things I said yesterday. You were the first one on the SW wagon, and without you this wouldn't have been possible. TL;DR If I can see this far, it is because I stand on the shoulders of giants. Cute post. Especially the bit about me. I honestly don't see what I made possible at all here. HtS and n00b got Sulf D1, and today would have likely played out exactly the same with or without me. All I've done is provided SW as an alternative Mislynch target is he is in fact town. I'm not egotistical enough to not see that I've largely flailed around a lot of this game. | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On July 13 2015 22:07 Fidei86 wrote: Also, I think this is probably worth saying - if there is a medic, they should 100% try and save HTS this evening. She is probably the most town-read person (maybe along side me), but given that she just nailed Sulfurus in one post, I definitely think she's towns biggest asset right now. She's definitely smarter than me, anyway  It's not much, and again kinda WIFOM. This was Fidei's only suggested night action N1, if he wanted to make a suggestion why single out a Medic save? Think about that from a town and scum mindset... | ||
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MoosyDoosy
United States4519 Posts
Also @Half the Sky, please give me thoughts on Fidei vs Tictock that happened a couple pages back. I'm sorry if I didn't catch your response but I believe you never did give one. | ||
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Grokken
Sweden245 Posts
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MoosyDoosy
United States4519 Posts
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 18 2015 19:36 Fidei86 wrote:Okay, I'm now 100% convinced that SW is the final mafia. For me, I wouldn't say 100%. He would be my first guess, but I wouldn't bet the house on it. Ticktock and HtS seem to be going in different directions from us, so we might have some work to do to convince them. (They are also going in different directions from each other though, so at least we have a majority right now. lol) This is from Page 32, and is still most of the reason for why I think silentwarrior could be scum, and why I think TJ flipping Red makes it a bit more likely that silentwarrior is scum: + Show Spoiler + It was me that hypothesized that maybe silentwarrior didn't comment on Sulfurus because there just wasn't much in Sulf's filter to work with. But "not much in the filter to work with" didn't stop silentwarrior from voting against NHM. As silentwarrior mentioned, I hadn't moved off of NHM yet when he casts that vote. So if the tide turns against NHM and he gets lynched and flips green, SW can at least say that his responsibility for NHM's death is not as great as mine. If the scum team were to be Sulfurus/TJHuggins/silentwarrior, then SW's reason to be looking for some random place to toss his vote is fairly straightforward. TJ and Sulf had already voted against Moosy. So maybe SW would want to vote elsewhere, just to keep them from all following the same blueprint. Once the push on Sulfurus gets going, and we have a Sulf vs. Moosy race, which one can silentwarrior reasonably choose in that situation? Again, he doesn't really want to vote against Moosy, when both of his teammates are already there. But he doesn't really want to vote Sulfurus, and get the Godfather lynched on Day 1. So he sits tight and hopes the Moosy lynch will go through (all the more likely, if the Scum team was thinking that Moosy's self-vote actually counted). By the time I drop the hammer on Sulfurus, there are only 12 minutes left in the Day. And there were only 4 minutes left in the Day by the time the vote count is clarified by the Mods, making it absolutely clear that my vote on Sulfurus DID drop the hammer on him. Too late for the scum team to get Moosy back in the lead, even if silentwarrior was around (and not legitimately afk). This "association case" against TJ/silentwarrior is not spectacularly strong. But I do think SW choosing to vote against NHM is a point against him, based on what the explanation would be for him to never say anything about Sulfurus, and based on how I can reason out a motivation for him to vote there, if he's Scum. As for you setting the over/under for number of posts in the scum thread at 15...I think I'll take the over. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 18 2015 22:11 Grokken wrote: I have no idea if you're serious, but if you are, these are probably the most stacked teams ever. Heh, I don't think Foolishness would be eligible for a Newbie slot. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
n00bKing wrote: Hey SCOTT: Were you roleblocked last night? | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 19 2015 02:54 Tictock wrote: Conclusion: Fidei is very likely Mafia here. Meh. If Fidei were the last Mafia, I don't see him needing to say that he is "100%" about silentwarrior, and then start launching into post-game discussion. Why does he need to push so hard for silentwarrior, as opposed to letting the next lynch fall on WonnaPlay or Scott? He could have made his exact same points against silentwarrior without any of the "100%" talk. And based on my earlier comments about silentwarrior, he can expect that I would probably join in. Jumping from "I think SW is the last mafia" to "I'm 100% sure" and talking post-game will just draw added attention to himself if silentwarrior were to flip Green. Because his comments will have been so memorable. He'd be using WIFOM to try and ward off the extra attention, and doing it just to get a result that doesn't really benefit him that much (the lynch of silentwarrior, as opposed to any other mislynch). So I'm not really seeing it. Lynch Fidei before HtS, before Grokken, and before Moosy? Okay. Lynch Fidei before silentwarrior or WonnaPlay? Not really that interested. Like Moosy says, seeing what role TJ flips as is important. If he's the Goon, it probably doesn't matter who we would like Grokken to check. But if TJ is the roleblocker, and Night discussion points toward Grokken checking the Goon, then we might actually get a concession before Day 4 ever starts. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Day 3 Vote Count TJHuggins(8): silentwarrior, Fidei86, Ticktock, Grokken, MoosyDoosy, Half the Sky, scott31337, N00bking silentwarrior(2): TJHuggins Not Voting(1):WonnaPlay Reminder Voting is done here. It is mandatory to vote. Not doing so will result in a warning a second non vote will result in a modkill and action taken against you in the Mafia ban thread. Currently TJHuggins is set to be lynched with 7 votes. Day 3 ends in PLEASE REMEMBER THAT IT IS MANDATORY TO VOTE. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 19 2015 04:38 rsoultin wrote: Day 3 Vote Count TJHuggins(7): silentwarrior, Fidei86, Ticktock, Grokken, MoosyDoosy, Half the Sky, scott31337 silentwarrior(2): TJHuggins, Noobking, Not Voting(1):WonnaPlay Still no. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
I went back through the D1 filter and I've pulled together the following links with annotations that document the history of the Sulfurus lynch: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/488742-newbie-student-mafia-xii?page=11#211 - me on page 11 saying that Moosy was a fine lynch but that is rather lynch a lurker http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/488742-newbie-student-mafia-xii?page=13#255 -n00b on Sulfurus on page 13 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/488742-newbie-student-mafia-xii?page=13#257 - my response on page 13 ("I'm down with that") http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/488742-newbie-student-mafia-xii?page=14#279 - my post on page 14 just after Sulfurus' incriminating post but before HTS started the wagon saying I was going to vote for Moosy but preferred to lynch a lurker http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/488742-newbie-student-mafia-xii?page=15#283 - HTS' case on Sulfurus http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/488742-newbie-student-mafia-xii?page=15#290 - me 36 minutes later agreeing with HTS (and I put my vote on then) I was happy to lynch Moosy because his play was ridiculous, but I'd clearly expressed a preference for lynching lurkers before n00b's case on Sulfurus, which was the first one I could find in the thread when I looked back just now. I didn't immediately move onto Sulfurus because not even n00b had, and he didn't really rally people to vote, I read his post more as "this is weird I want to draw attention to this". As soon as HTS made a case to lynch, and voted, I was more than down to follow. Yea, there was totally an element of sheep to what I did. I can't really argue with that. But I think that the sheep was consistent with the sentiment I had expressed before this started ("lynch all lurkers"). As to my D2 inactivity, the honest truth is that it was a combination of factors. Firstly, I was at work a lot (I'm a lawyer in London, and when I get home sometimes I just play dota and go to bed, rather than digesting the thread. Second, I was pretty sure Ghandi was Mafia (I think I got that wagon going, which I feel awful about) and so I was sort of phoning it in. Third, I was moderating a game of Mafia that my friends were playing over Whatsapp, which sucked up most of my non-work and non-Dota time. Re my read on TJH, I recall that HTS made a post after eod 1 about TJH. At that stage I hadn't really paid much attention to TjH (I even town read him for his attack on Grokken). However, I remember thinking that his response to my questions about whether or not he was NHM's boyfriend were really weird, so I said I agreed with her and wanted to hear more. After that, though, I got tunnelled on Ghandi. By the time eod2 came around HTS and n00b, as well as lots of others, had made very compelling arguments on TJH. I probably should have typed up my seven point list, but I was still in the office and it was like 11pm and most of the arguments had already been made, so I just stuck the best and newest one I had in. Re SW, I totally admit my read on him has been all over the place. From memory, I first pinged him for his horrible thread entry, then u town read him for his contributions, then you scum read him and I thought that what you'd said made sense, then I thought that maybe WP and SW were a team because they'd played so similarly, then I saw SW's response to the claim-counter claim bit and was convinced he was the final Mafia. I still am. Those are my thoughts. Basically, for me to be scum, I would have had to realise that Sulfurus was going to get called out early AND that he was going to lurk and then breadcrumb moving off Moosy early, then jump second onto the wagon at a time when there were only two other people leaning on Sulf (KSC moved on to the auld wagon with the same little explanation that I did - is "I'm down"). But one thing that strikes me is that why would scum TJH, who, at that stage, was totally active, not bus as well? TJH stayed on Moosy and is about to pay the price. I hope that, if I were scum, I'd at least give my other scum buddy the same amazing insight I had and give him the chance to come with me. If you don't, you have to think that on Day 1 I basically decided that I was going to have to win the game all by myself. I'm just not that kind of person, honestly. Hopefully this wasn't too rambling. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On July 19 2015 03:15 Tictock wrote: Oh I forgot I was gonna make a point in my case on Fidei about this... It's not much, and again kinda WIFOM. This was Fidei's only suggested night action N1, if he wanted to make a suggestion why single out a Medic save? Think about that from a town and scum mindset... I mean, you're right. That's all I suggested. And I did it because I really really wanted HTS to stay in the game. I might be biased because I really like HTS and playing with her as town has been a pleasure, but I thought she had the best chance of solving the game. I also did say that I didn't think people should be suggesting cop checks N1. I'm not certain that my arguments were right, and I'd like to hear your thoughts (mostly so if I roll cop in the future, I'll have a better sense of what I should be doing). | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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