EPTGGs KSC.
Newbie Student Mafia XII - Page 4
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
GGs KSC. | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Could be a medic dodge if there is a medic in the setup. Only other thing I can think of if KSC was on to someone that no one else was. That is another angle. Nightkills are WIFOM but it's to look at all angles. | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
This means a medic dodge is possible and the prot role is a medic. In randomised open setups, if there is roleblockable veteran in the setup, usually the RB and NK actions are stacked on the target to avoid chancing hitting the veteran. The fact that the nightactions were on separate targets, indicates that the prot role is likely to be a medic. (It should also be of note that scum already know the setup from the off, so me discussing this doesn't give them any extra advantage.) | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On July 14 2015 06:40 Tictock wrote: @ HtS I am currently in Geneva, but tonight is my last night here. Will be boarding a flight tomorrow morning back to the States. I'm visiting my dad who moved out here a few years ago ( he works for the WMO), and did a crazy trip over the past week. We've been here in Geneva, Germany, and also Poland. Technically France as well but only for a short bit today. Very nice. I hope you enjoyed your holiday! Sounds like a blast. Speaking of life on the road, I'm headed to Munich for work in about 3 weeks time after a trip to the States (specifically NYC) starting Friday for 3 weeks (again for work) so I'm headed for a very interesting road trip myself. | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Without further ado... ##vote TJHuggins Will return tomorrow. | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On July 12 2015 14:16 scott31337 wrote: This is a pretty bad idea - I just was filter diving on who talked about/with Damdred - You, Boxer, Trfel and Milo looked the worst, and Breshke, HalfTheSky and Vivax look much more interactive with him. What do you think of Boxerfred? For everyone else this is the quote in question. Bottom of page 284. | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
I'm in Gaiden now but I will return here ASAP. | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On July 15 2015 00:14 WonnaPlay wrote: @HtS : Probably a bit of a newbie question, but why did you immediately claim you had been Roleblocked? Everyone pretty much trusts you at this moment, so claiming Roleblock doesn't add any strength to your township. If someone else would claim RoleBlock and you were roleblocked this night, it would become your word against their word and then it's an easy lynch for all of us. Was it so that it helps figuring out what the scum was thinking or do people just always claim roleblock? I have a lot to add with analysis here but I will answer this question real quick. If you are roleblocked, always claim when RBs are notified. This is even more critical in semi-open setups (where you aren't 100% sure an RB exists). Anyone should do it, though in this case I was not concerned about towncred. People TRYING to do it for towncred is another issue entirely. 1 It tells town what scum were thinking. 2 It confirms a medic (and not veteran in the game) because the targets had different actions on them. If there was a vet, KSC has a 10 percent chance of being vet and being one scumer down already, scum don't want to chance getting KP blocked. 3 If someone else claims roleblocked, it's 100% a scum claim - or at least I know that. If you don't believe me then when I flip, you'll know immediately to lynch the other person. 4 When RBs are notified it gives town information. RBs especially in late game confirm townies so you'll see scumteams (reference NSM10) hold their roleblocks and in extreme case (usually in a 4-man mylo or if they opt for a no lynch in mylo) scum can hold their KP. | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
But I will put aside some time to post. Largely the TLDR version is that Ghandi looks significantly worse, Scott needs to fill in the gaps with his scumreads, his fear read on me is normal considering that he was on a scumteam where I (more or less) carried, and TJH is still poor, Grokken is slightly better, just skimming I need to get a firmer read on SW, WP and Tictock, the last of whom is concerning from a fear read (read: Holy Guardians) standpoint. The real question for me is whether I want to lynch TJH or Ghandi. WP seems okay for a newbie though. SW is the one I had a prior concern on. I observed that game and I want to cross compare points from that game, but from what I recall, the big problem was that you had milo who was guilty of TMI, Chocolate and Templar were too easy to lynch because they WERE pretty scummy and then Damdred and VE were both playing suboptimally and Scott was also easily mislynched. So basically in this game the way to prevent that with any potential player is if the town stays cohesive it will be harder for scum to hide. There was a Dutch newbie who was playing pretty well enough to not get MLed (in fact he got NKed N2 which was weird in of itself) and ritoky was also doing well but those two were offed pretty quickly. In a game where town plays suboptimally it will be much harder, based on meta you have to find out whether a player really believes someone is scum or is just trying to push an easy mislynch. Right now there aren't many standing out from the crowd so I'm thinking at this point in time Tic would be an easy read. If there's something you recall from HG that jumps out to you regarding Tictock shout. I do need to look at him in detail. | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On July 14 2015 08:04 Fidei86 wrote: ??? TJH actually said *nothing* about Sulfurus, except adding him at #2 to his 'scum list' out of nowhere, and then being angry we didn't lynch Moosy. He voted for Moosy. To say he was "an early bird on the Sulfurus Train" is just totally wrong. This is actually why TJH is more likely to be scum. He "safely" put Sulfurus name as second behind Moosy. You have an unexplained change in reads and furthermore there was no followup after the fact. Not impressed with this one (Ghandi, that is, not Fidei's quote.) | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On July 14 2015 08:09 GhandiEAGLE wrote: The rest of his filter is absolute trash, by the way. Nothing helpful at all; all of his posts constantly criticize other people for suspecting him, while offering literally zero content to push the town forward. If he isn't scum, I'd still policy lynch him Day 3 since based_HTS gave us plenty of time. I need meaningful contribution from Moosey or I'm not likely moving off of my vote without heavy evidence on someone else. ##Vote: MoosyDoosy I'm going to ignore the rest of this post because this actually speaks for itself - besides the points others brought up you aren't even taking into consideration why MoosyDoosy posted the way he did. I think the entire game agrees it is suboptimal but he's purposely putting himself as suboptimal and risked getting lynched to do that. Do you even remotely think it's likely scum would do that? He breadcrumbed his strategy. And you don't ever do policy lynches D2 and beyond in TL games, ever. There are 100-year exceptions but this would not qualify as one of them. And the waffling which others mentioned in comparison makes me realise you're trying to spare TJHuggins. On July 14 2015 08:12 GhandiEAGLE wrote: Filler and waffle is over, I've started making legit posts again. TJH wasn't a lie, I just misread the filter page. My inactivity is also clearly over. If you misread the filter page on TJH, you should also be changing your read. There is ZERO information from TJH on Sulfurus prior to the unexplained change in read. If you mis-read - then your read on him HAS to change if you are townie. On July 14 2015 08:11 GhandiEAGLE wrote: Note: I don't really think Moosy is mafia. I want him to help or get out. THEN YOU DON'T LYNCH HIM END OF. In case I wasn't clear the first time, and in the event you are a newbie..... DO NOT POLICY VOTE D2 AND BEYOND. EVER. THERE IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INFORMATION (THE D1 VOTE TABLE FOR STARTERS) TO GET A PROPER SCUM LYNCH OFF. On July 14 2015 08:15 GhandiEAGLE wrote: I already said I don't really want to lynch Moosy unless he keeps shitposting tomorrow, and at that point its a policy lynch. Also, talking about the likelihood of both D1 wagons being scum is irrelevant, just because it's unlikely doesn't mean that it justifies any of Moosy's play. Then you shouldn't even be voting him. Find the remaining scummers if you aren't one of them. On July 14 2015 08:45 GhandiEAGLE wrote: 1) Fidei. Town read; pushing me for my admittedly shitty posting when there was no real consideration of it earlier is pretty darn town. 2) WonnaPlay Lurk City, hard to know if spooked or noob, but sketchy either way. Because its a noob game all lurkers basically stay in neutral range, instead of my usual neutral-lurker range. 3) N00bking. Neutral; dont like his filter but he voted for sulfurus, so the two cancel each other out. 4) Silentwarrior. Shit-tier read list, bandwagonning, lurking. Didn't vote Moosy N1, so neutral or bad scum imo. 5) NHM/Tictoc Awful posting but apparently had an excuse so mleh. Tictoc says he's followed the game, and showed that he was present in the thread, but has yet to give anything meaningful to the game, so he's on my naughty list until something comes up. Most lurkers commit, but he's already poked his head recently. 6) Moosy Shit town, prodding him to post better hopefully he actually does, otherwise lynch for derailing conversation. No more discussion on him because its also just derailing now. C'mon man shape up. 7) TJ Huggins Bandwagonned on Moosy, pointed a lot of fingers, but generally been pretty baseless. This isn't quite a 180 of what I said earlier, because I said in my post that he wasn't scum to me. That hasn't changed; I should have clarified that I didn't think he was that innocent either, he's high up on my neutral list. Just not enough yet to vote on him. 8) Grokken. Seems pretty sketchy to me. Need to chug through filter again, but voting on me even before Fidei did just feels like someone trying to stand out and be opportunistic. He didn't start the attack, so he doesn't assume culpability if I get lynched and I'm town. He also can't hold onto an accusation. That said, he didn't fight Sulfurus being lynched; he voted Moosy but didn't protest Sulfurus' death. That doesn't mean, however, that he's not my scum read. Because he is. 9) HtS Untouchable right now. No fun there :< 10) scottblahblahnumbers The WORST kind of lurker, if he was maf, I'd be willing to bet he'd be more active, especially since he's not on the noob list; who plays mafia multiple times without wanting to actually participate? For that reasoning he's really town to me, but damn I hate how he's basically not in the game. It's frustrating. For n00bking if you are going to push a universally read town, you had better specify what you don't like about his filter. And if you are going to argue he bussed sulfurus instead of just saying cancelled out, you have to explain the risk reward analysis from his end. You fail to do that. Generally speaking your statement is incongruent, either the voting is the strongest evidence or you need to find a reason where his filter overrides the town cred from hammering (he was the deciding vote on) Sulfurus. You do neither. Saying overall neutral is a shallow read. And then you turn around and say SW is bandwagonning. On whom? D1, he was a solo voter which is one of the problems I had with him. The rest of your argument is unsubstantiated. The Scott read is terrible considering you have lurkers on other standards (double standards) like WP/SW. If you feel Grokken is scum, you should be pushing him. You should be voting him. TLDR: Basically your posting is just not believable from a town perspective nor you have/are doing jack all to reconcile those differences. I feel the posting before all of this too is contrived. I think you have the same problem as Sulfurus. You really don't care between lynching between Grokken and MD and being one down already you're badly in need of a mislynch. | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On July 15 2015 00:07 WonnaPlay wrote: Top scumlist for me : 1] Scott - Gets defended by some people, without him having done anything. I think one of the people talking for him is atleast scum, defending scum. It would also explain the post Sulfurus made about "unvalid vote" and would even explain the night kill on Kelsier (if what you guys saying is true about veterans killing Kelsier). He isn't even AFK, but because he's afraid from HtS and therefore he is lurking, which raises alarmbells all over the place for me.. 2] Ghandi - too sketchy for my taste. The reason I don't have Ghandi on my #1 is that his list looks pretty decent. I'd agree on most points with him there, but who knows if he turns around again after that.. Also his conclusion on Scott being town is totally unwarranted. If Scott turns out to be scum, then Ghandi is one aswell. 3] TJH - made some weird posts during the end of the day regarding the votes, but I could see him being legitimately frustrated about his idea of different rules. I do think that HtS made some solid points, which I can't ignore since she was spot on in the last day. He's also very quiet since that day.. I don't think you are scum for this but a few things - Sulfurus was flipped scum so anything he says on the invalid vote should be disregarded as WIFOM. - Scott isn't afraid of me because he's scum - yes he could be but it's not for that comment on me. He's fearing that I'M scum - this is from his experience with me together on a scumteam. More on this in another post I will have on Scott. - Regarding your Scott/Ghandi/TJH reads, between Scott and Ghandi, who is MORE likely to be scum? And how do you know Ghandi, being the worse of the two from your perpective isn't BSing about Scott? | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
But unless there is an overriding reason you always side with percentage play analysis and Sulfurus didn't leave too much behind post-lynch. Whether you believe Scott or TJH is the final mafia you have to go with percentage play. ##unvote ##vote GhandiEAGLE | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On July 14 2015 10:42 scott31337 wrote: I'm off in left field in this game but I think we almost have it solved - Sorry I'm not contributing much. HtS town love gives me a stiffy and normally she's not solid - <3 If you have reason to suspect me, you have a lot of things to prove. 1 I hard bussed Sulfurus from the off. If I were scum, tell me how many cycles it would be before I run into the "why is she alive" theory. 2 I was roleblocked. You'd have to either believe a) scum held their roleblock or b) there is reason to see a veteran in the game as they double stacked actions on KSC or c) I am the roleblocker. In the case of b) you'd still have to explain why KSC got NKed over n00b and Fidei. 3 In line with 1, assuming MD is town you'd have to believe as scum I saved a town that could have very easily been mislynched. I could have just done nothing. 4 You'd have to believe that I had TMI on Sulfurus based on the method that I used to tag him and/or to put it in simpler terms, you believe no townie can look at Sulfurus' post and question why Sulfurus thought it was a waste of time to discuss the leading wagon with 1h45m until EoD with FOUR NO-VOTES. 5 You'd have to believe that MoosyDoosy (who admitted he was springing a trap) and I were both scummates setting our own teammate up to be lynched, a teammate who was much less likely to be lynched than Moosy with at least 6 votes. Ockham's razor is usually the way to go unless you have reason (above) to think otherwise. If you can reasonably discuss at least 2-3 of the 5 points I raised above, then you might actually have a case. TLDR - Based on you being on a scumteam with me, you are not unreasonable to fear read me. That post does not make you scum. But fear reading alone isn't going to get you anywhere, and I learnt that one the hard way with Kitaman in Aperture 4. If you cannot discuss the above, then try again. On July 14 2015 19:11 Fidei86 wrote: Frankfurt airport is awesome - look for the recline chairs with the charging points if you're in terminal 2. Very comfortable. I can sheep this  On July 14 2015 19:39 Tictock wrote: HtS can attest that my setup/role speculation has been very poor in the past as well, lol. This I can also sheep, in addition to your setup speculation. Vigilantes usually shoot N1 and there were several reasons to, even ignoring lurkers. (And it should have been clear from me telling a vig to shoot Sulfurus at EoD that I'm not a vig.) | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Also 2 hours post-lynch depending on timezone is not considered too soon. Stateside, the EoDs (I'm assuming you are EU btw) are during evening rush hour, so who knows. I know you're new so I'm considering this part NAI for now. But popping up so soon after the lynch, 2 hours is not considered very soon. 2 minutes, yes you have a case. Again I am a bit ahead and it is an associative read at this point in time (meaning can't know until a Gandhi flip) but I'm still null on SW at the moment. I think based on effort most newbie scum wouldn't give much effort. At the same time scum are concerned with "looking town" so I do remain cautious on SW. | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On July 15 2015 05:24 GhandiEAGLE wrote: But disagreeing with your points isn't what's scummy to me. What's scummy is that you jumped on the first bandwagon that had nothing to do with supposedly likely scum, TJ. You issued a short, uninformative paragraph, and then immediately voted for me before even the original accuser, Fidei, did. To me this just seems like opportunistic play that would side yourself with a clear town, give you little to no culpability when I turn up town after a lynch, and still allow you to have a time in your filter where you seemed proactive in a town role, so as to be another defense later. That seems scummy to me. ##Vote: Grokken That's the second time I've seen you misuse the word bandwagon this game. Now how does the first bolded sentence exclusively make Grokken mafia? I don't like the second bolded sentence since you are putting words in his mouth but I think there is a reason Grokken didn't vote TJ. But let's see if anyone else sorts that out. | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On July 15 2015 08:37 n00bKing wrote: I don't think it's that big of a red flag. Sulfurus offered very little to take a stance on. I could see a new player looking at Sulfurus' filter and thinking "there is nothing here to work with." This is a decent point. He was a solo voter and having done too many VCAs to count I might be a little biased since he solo voted, but newbies probably don't have the concept of town consolidation down either, at least not yet. | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
| ||
