Mafia in the Himalayas - Page 3

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 23 2015 11:36 GMT

#3483

That's a really brilliant play GB!
The amount of forethought put into that is staggering.
From almost being lynched to catching 2 scum :D.
The hero we need but don't deserve after how much we let you get pounded.
If what you're saying is true then you're the real MVP for sure.

so who's first, mig or hf?

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 23 2015 11:41 GMT

#3484

On June 23 2015 15:19 Onegu wrote:
Am I the only one seeing LS TMI

Why are you even discussing this?
It's seems like you're trying awfully hard to deflect from what GB is saying.
Let's focus on which mafia to lynch today.

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 23 2015 11:52 GMT

#3486

Hey fidei glad to see you back

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 23 2015 12:08 GMT

#3487

So I skimmed through the filters of both HF and Mig.

I strongly believe we should lynch HF over mig for these reasons:

- Strong thread presence and very active. If we don't lynch him now he might be able to talk his way out of this later.
- Uncanny ability to push through his views(See push on GB)

If he's mafia he's very dangerous to keep around.

Mig on the other hand seems more laidback and less disruptive in the thread.

##Vote holyflare

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 23 2015 13:44 GMT

#3492

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 23 2015 10:49 rsoultin wrote:

Show nested quote +

sorry ruxx ^^; this feels kinda dirty but it's the game that just finished...so it is what it is

On June 23 2015 22:01 rsoultin wrote:
So tempted to pull a gb here lol ><

Please address my suspicions on you ruxx

So here's how I approached the thread.

I replaced into this game when it was 120 pages long. I felt like I had no idea what was going on, or what people were talking about. I wanted to go back and read all the pages but it was just too much, and yes you can blame me for that if you want -_-.

So not knowing any people in the game from before, or knowing what people were talking about, it felt really intimidating and awkward to just jump right in the middle of people arguing and pushing people and throwing my opinion around like I knew what I was talking about(it wouldn't be of much help if I couldn't substantiate it with any reasoning).

So to get a head start I thought I would do some filter dives to give out my opinion on some people and try to throw ideas out there and stimulate some discussion.

It worked, I got requested to do a few more, I got bashed for some due to inaccuracies that gets lost when you don't read the filter in context, also missing the LS blue claim was.. yeah -_-.
(Seriously try reading the filter of a person without having read the thread, you're going to miss a lot of things).

But I thought it was the best course of action.
So after the whole thread died down a bit(the holy flare vs GB discussion), I felt like I could jump in and start some casual conversation.

I understand why you would draw that conclusion from the other game, and it's a fair line of thinking, but I honestly didn't see a better course of action for me to get into the game.
I needed to have some kind of base to start out on, or else I would just be clueless to what I was really talking about.(And I still am clueless about most people, only read 5-6 filters so far).

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 23 2015 13:47 GMT

#3493

Also a note to self:

This is probably the last time I'll replace into a game since I just feel like I missed out on way too much of the context, and that it's important to be a part of the game since the beginning to really have a grasp of what's going on.

Just going back and reading the thread is not going to get you involved in the same way.

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 23 2015 14:18 GMT

#3495

Sure ^^.

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 23 2015 21:17 GMT

#3533

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 24 2015 06:03 rsoultin wrote:

Show nested quote +

-flicks- not true. i'm just opinionated lol >< being confirmed town is hella nice though

okay let me break this down for people in an easy-to-follow format

1. We need to determine whether or not we believe Glowingbear's claim now as opposed to later. It's common sense, but if you're the real cop here and we're lynching GB's red check, you claim.

2. We need to determine whether or not we believe the red check is real. What I mean by this, is do we think Holyflare is actually scum? There is the potential for millers and a MAFIA FRAMER in the game, which means that GB's could be real but his results are still false. THE FLIP TO DETERMINE ALIGNMENT IS A BAD IDEA. SCUM CAN BUSS AND CLAIM A FAKE CHECK. THERE COULD BE A FRAMER. STOP BEING LAZY.

Everyone needs to address these two questions separate of the check.

Here's how I see it:

This is the order of events:

- GB claims DT.
- GB claims greencheck on mig.
- Night 1 ends.
- GB does *not* die.

This means that mig should be confirmed mafia since the mafia would KNOW the greencheck was false and not kill GB since they thought the claim was fake.

This makes me think it's better to actually lynch mig first, since we have the strongest evidence for him being mafia.
The check on HF could, as you said be either a framer or a miller, so it's better to go with the sure option first.

Until someone CC's I'll believe GB's claim.

##Vote mig

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 23 2015 22:01 GMT

#3557

On June 24 2015 06:40 rsoultin wrote:

Show nested quote +

lol so you agree with me xP finished the thread yet?

Currently on page 40.
Going at a slow but steady pace.

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 23 2015 23:58 GMT

#3559

On June 24 2015 08:48 GlowingBear wrote:

Show nested quote +

Hahaha just saw this

IMMA THE BATMAN!

Fucking BatTraps™. I love it.

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 24 2015 18:01 GMT

#3656

Holyflare, I really don't see how lynching you is the better option here.
You seem to be gungho about getting lynched to prove GB's alignment, but since there's a chance that you're VT, then you must agree that going for the sure or less worse option is better.

Look at it from town perspective.
Right now you are more beneficial to us than mig.
Lynching you just to prove a point is not acceptable.

I'll be outlining scenarios for GB being both mafia and DT

#1 GB is DT and telling the truth:
+ Show Spoiler +

If you believe that GB is telling the truth, then you have no reason to doubt anything of what he said.
This means that GB:

- Checked LS, got green
- Checked HF, got red
- Did *NOT* get roleblocked.

So we have to make some assumptions here:

- Chance that there is a framer in the game + the framer framing HF : very low.
- Chance that HF is miller : low

However there is still a chance.

GB also claimed a false greencheck on mig.
These are the scenarios related to mig:

- Chance that mig is mafia and thought the claim was false : likely
+ Show Spoiler +

Mafia keep GB alive

- Chance that mig is godfather and thought the claim was true : low
+ Show Spoiler +

In this case they would definitely kill GB, so it's unlikely this happened.

There's no scenarios here where GB lives and Mig isn't mafia, unless I missed something.
If you believe GB's claim, then lynching mig is absolutely the right choice.

Right now this is the world I believe in, and that is why my vote rests on mig for the moment.

However, I'll also post up a scenario next of where GB could be mafia, but there's more variables involved so it'll take a little while to put together.

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 24 2015 18:35 GMT

#3659

I have a hard time reading damdred.
I just played a game with him where he was lurking hardcore, so I won't judge him based on his activity.

I'll respond to your points about damdred:

- Early town reads:
+ Show Spoiler +

I really don't know where he gets this from.
There's no reasoning, so I'll have to assume it's all based on meta.
Maybe damdred knows people well enough to make that call, I don't know.
I've heard that judging people from their first posts is actually not as inaccurate as you may think, but I have a hard time believing that.
I'll have to assume that his list is very inaccurate.

- Crazy defenses of people.
+ Show Spoiler +

I saw damdred do this as town in his last game, and he was right.
However I was very suspicious of him doing so and I still think it's a crapshoot.
I generally dislike people calling others 100% town and defending them.
Let people defend themselves so that you can actually extract information from them.
If you put yourself in the line of fire then you make it seem like you have ulterior motives.
This is not a point in his favor

My own judgement on damdred:
He does seem a little wishy washy, and doesn't justify most of his call outs.

I'm also not sure how he went from this:

On June 22 2015 05:40 Damdred wrote:
Mig is mafia and we should lynch Mig

To this:

On June 22 2015 06:13 Damdred wrote:
ok GB and Mig are off the table today
Get on yamato.

In just 2 pages.

I really wish he would qualify his reads more.

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 24 2015 18:40 GMT

#3663

On June 25 2015 03:36 GlowingBear wrote:
We are lynching Holyflare

Then we are lynching Mig

Too late to switch targets. Doing shenanigans here is absolutely dangerous. Lynch HF first, then lynch Mig

Did you read my post about you?
If you are what you say you are, then explain to me why you want to lynch HF first.

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 24 2015 19:48 GMT

#3691

So here's my followup to my previous post about GB

#2 GB fakeclaimed and is mafia:
To see why this makes sense, we need do 2 things:

- Determine motivation.
- Find inconsistencies in his play that makes a real DT claim unlikely.

Motivation:
+ Show Spoiler +

#1 He was on the chopping block
However, he was also on the chopping block day 1, and barely lost the race.
Why claim day 2 and not day 1?
It is strange to me, and I'd like him to explain why.

#2 He wanted to get HF out of the game.
After arguing hard with HF day 2, he didn't like the pressure put on him by HF. HF was on the right track and he knew he would never get HF lynched without a cop claim.
Even when he is more certain that mig is mafia, and lynching mig is the more certain choice, he *STILL* wants to lynch HF.

Inconsistencies in play:
+ Show Spoiler +

This is what GB claimed:

- Greencheck on LS day 1.
- Redcheck on HF day 2.

Why a greencheck on LS N-1 doesn't make sense:
- Called LS town for most of day 1, yet checks him instead of someone on her potential scum list.

Why redcheck on HF N-2 doesn't make sense:
- After suspecting day 1 and day 2 that mig, bugs and VA are mafia, he decides to check HF instead.
If GB is town, he has no reason to be afraid of the pressure put on him by HF and would rather confirm that someone on his scum list is mafia to get a certain lynch on D-3.

These are the points to support a fake claim that I could think of.

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 24 2015 20:13 GMT

#3697

On June 25 2015 04:32 Holyflare wrote:
ruxxar where did you go? you've not really told me who mafia is apart from mig?

Strongest mafia suspects after mig:

#1 VaynesAuthority:
+ Show Spoiler +

Mainly due to his anti-town play

You could argue that LS blue claim was even more anti-town, but he drew a ton of attention to himself at the same time which I don't find it likely that a mafia would do.

#2 Onegu:
+ Show Spoiler +

Also due to his anti-town actions.

Other than that, I'm still observing.

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 24 2015 20:17 GMT

#3702

On June 25 2015 05:14 GlowingBear wrote:
WE ARE LYNCHING HOLYFLARE

VOTE HIM RIGHT NOW.

...
I still don't understand why you are so desperate to lynch HF first.

ruXxar

Norway5668 Posts

June 24 2015 20:33 GMT

#3718

On June 25 2015 05:20 GlowingBear wrote:
Because I think town needs to consolidate and it is too close to deadline to change targets and Holyflare has a big filter from who we can gather way more information than mig

He is objectively a better lynch

I don't think this is a good reason at all.
If he has a big filter and is more active that means he's more likely to expose his mafia friends as time passes by, whereas we have nothing to gain from keeping mig alive.