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On June 14 2015 12:18 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2015 12:14 n00bKing wrote:On June 14 2015 12:08 Damdred wrote:On June 14 2015 11:52 n00bKing wrote:On June 14 2015 09:09 Damdred wrote:
Umm Idk why Geript as confirmed town would have better reads than say... anyone left alive? That's not the point. geript's reads might not be "better" but they are "trustworthy." Pick any player left that you think is better at this game than geript is. Are that player's reads likely to be "better" than geript's? Maybe. But you don't know whether they are genuine, or if they are coming from a scum player. geript's reads might not be right, but at least we have reason to expect he was being honest with us. And his honest opinions are that Sulfurus and Rels would be good players to think about lynching, but that first and foremost, we should put a bullet in batsnacks. This is so wrong.... so very very wrong How so? Why do you think geript's reads aren't trustworthy, even if they could still be inaccurate? Why do you think he wouldn't be honest with us, on his way out the door? He's going to try and mislead us, just out of spite, because he's pissed about being mislynched? This is a Newbie game. Saying a post like mine is "very very wrong" without giving a single drop of explanation WHY it's wrong, does not serve the Town's interests. Geript is a person, people are generally wrong. This is day one even good players are more often than not wrong on d1. I'm not saying geript wasn't being honest with anything. I'm saying following someones reads when you lynch them is the wrong thing to do. And a good way to lose a game, lets say you follow Geripts reads. Shoot bats he flips town, lynch X they flip town. Then what happens you are in lylo because you followed someones reads instead of developed something else as the days went on. I've already explained this but i'll rephrase, just because someone can be trusted once they are flipped doesn't mean that they should be followed necessarily.
There isn't anything in here that disagrees with a single word of what I posted. I stated and re-stated that geript's reads could easily be mistaken. But we can expect his reads to be honest. So although I never advocated the idea of blindly or mindlessly following his recommendations, knowing that they came from an honest source could act as a helpful tie-breaker for someone.
On June 14 2015 12:18 Damdred wrote:
the only reason he wanted bats shot was because he thought he was being stupid.
I do not think geript's irrationality reached those kinds of heights. Batsnacks "being stupid" is not a good enough reason to insist that a vigilante should burn his one and only bullet on him, if you don't think there's a reasonable chance of him actually flipping red.
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On June 14 2015 15:18 Oatsmaster wrote:
Damdred didn't call me town, he's scum.
Also that completely pointless list post that has more townreads than scum reads.
Sulph / damdred mafia.
Doubt it. batsnacks and Sulfurus had been pretty close in the vote race for a while. Then damdred rides in to play White Knight for batsnacks. Around that same time, Moosy had cast his vote for Sulfurus, and soon after, oats moves his vote off of batsnacks, to geript. All of this is putting Sulfurus' neck firmly in the noose. Damdred and Sulfurus cannot both be scum unless Damdred was trying to bus him (which I think has a pretty low probability).
If Damdred is scum, he's much more likely to be teamed with batsnacks, than with Sulfurus. Moosy could be on that team as well.
If Sulfurus is scum, well...I have some ideas about who would be on that team, too. But I'll tell ya later.
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On June 15 2015 00:27 Oatsmaster wrote:
Btw if we have a vig, please dont go for a hero shot, go for a safe shot.
PLEASE.
What would be examples of a hero shot? What would be examples of a safe shot?
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On June 15 2015 01:20 WaveofShadow wrote:
I guess ruxxar isn't scum, can't see why scum would bther post in thread revealing they know a potential blue outed himself.
Guess I could think of a couple reasons, if I worked at it.
1) Could be for "pocketing" purposes. If Moosy is a blue role (or even just trying to look like one) then he might decide "Yeah, this ruXxar guy gets what I'm doing, we're on the same page!" If this were the case, then it might have worked, because you'll notice Moosy's eagerness to now townread him.
2) Could be for "WIFOM" purposes. Since scum wouldn't do it, he can do it, and keep people from thinking he's scum. If this were the case, then it might have worked, based on what you're saying about it. Then if they kill Moosy and he flips blue, ruXxar can be like "Yeah, see? Knew that guy was town, I saw what he was doing."
These might be reaches, but I don't they are zero-probability scenarios.
Hopefully Dr. Weird/Frylock have some good ideas for what they want to do with their actions (if anything, since they could also just wait). And hopefully Neil has some good targets in mind. So I won't make specific suggestions for any of these guys, since people don't seem to want to see much advice floating around.
I will say only that I don't think Allen should target ruXxar. ruXxar's VT claim needlessly draws attention to himself, which could conceivably result in a cop check later. So (unless he made a mistake, which is also possible) I think he would be unlikely to make this play, if he didn't think he could pass the check. Which could obviously just mean he's Town. But IF he's not, then I think there is a greater-than-average chance he is Ignignokt, as opposed to any other scum role.
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On June 15 2015 01:53 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Nah, ruXxar posted way too fast in quick succession for it to be planned on his part.
Not really wanting to make a big deal of this discussion, but...what's easier than posting in quick succession if you've "planned it"? lol
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On June 15 2015 02:05 batsnacks wrote:
n00bking you read a lot of newbie mafia X right? Who would you say your play style this game most closely resembles in that game?
That's a very unusual question. I guess I hadn't thought about it. Without going back to look at that thread, I guess I would say my play in this game is a closest match for...Rels, in that game? I remember often thinking that Breschke and Barakos were saying things that made me think they were Town. But they weren't always saying things that I had myself been thinking before they posted it. Rels was.
(P.S. I still can't believe you guys lynched Bill Murray over ninjabunnies. I was almost yelling at the screen, toward the end of that Phase. lol)
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On June 15 2015 02:33 batsnacks wrote:
BM was a fine lynch he didn't do anything to prevent it and we had a green check on bunnies.
Well your green check was worth crap, huh? I will admit that I was not completely sure bunnies was scum. But I was still leaning scum, despite the green check. I was, however, completely sure Bill Murray was town. (Considerably more sure than I was that geript was Town in this game, where I made multiple attempts to save him from the noose.)
Anyway, I'm going to bail on that discussion too, because it's another one that I don't think is proving to be productive, for purposes of THIS game.
On June 15 2015 02:33 batsnacks wrote:Your posting this game is very similar to boxerfred. He spent tons of effort speculating about roles instead of focusing on finding mafia and we all just gave him a pass because he was new and at least he was posting a lot.
1) What was your purpose for asking me the question? it's not like you were going to get me to select boxerfred as my Newbie X doppelganger.
2) I also don't think you're going to try and say that I do not have quite a few posts in this game that are "focused on finding mafia"? I think you would find a whole lot of posts in my filter that revolve around using what has happened, and what's been said, to determine a player's alignment. And any time you can determine a player's alignment, it contributes to finding mafia.
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On June 15 2015 05:54 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2015 05:52 ruXxar wrote:On June 15 2015 05:43 batsnacks wrote:On June 15 2015 05:39 ruXxar wrote:On June 15 2015 05:34 batsnacks wrote:
kickstart is a good shot. What makes you say that? My bat-senses. I must say I don't trust them very much after your last performance on geript... Brother You sheeped me. HARD.
He sure did. And you can understand no one ever wanting to make THAT mistake again.
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On June 15 2015 05:39 batsnacks wrote:
While I'm still here I want to point out that n00bking was eerily upset when me/sulfurus stopped being the primary wagons yesterday. He made a couple posts about it I think he compared town to a train wreck after my lynch started losing steam. Don't let him get by with all this role speculation/advice stuff town made the same mistake last game with boxerfred.
I compared town to a trainwreck after you AND Sulfurus lost steam, and geript was gaining steam. If I couldn't lynch you, I was happy to lynch Sulfurus. (You know, cuz Theory?) I was not at all interested in lynching geript, so yeah, was getting pretty unhappy.
By the way, how about them roles? I wonder which roles are in the game, and who has 'em. Rolly-roll-role-roles.
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On June 15 2015 06:18 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2015 06:02 n00bKing wrote:On June 15 2015 05:39 batsnacks wrote:
While I'm still here I want to point out that n00bking was eerily upset when me/sulfurus stopped being the primary wagons yesterday. He made a couple posts about it I think he compared town to a train wreck after my lynch started losing steam. Don't let him get by with all this role speculation/advice stuff town made the same mistake last game with boxerfred. I compared town to a trainwreck after you AND Sulfurus lost steam, and geript was gaining steam. If I couldn't lynch you, I was happy to lynch Sulfurus. (You know, cuz Theory?) I was not at all interested in lynching geript, so yeah, was getting pretty unhappy. By the way, how about them roles? I wonder which roles are in the game, and who has 'em. Rolly-roll-role-roles. if I was a cop then I would check you or trelf. In my eyes you are the strongest players in this game and it would be dangerous if you were mafia.
Hmm.
I'll just leave this right here:
ruXxar wrote:
n00bking is my #1 townread right now, 100%.
Trfel would be second.
You sure you know what the cop is for?
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On June 15 2015 06:48 Rels wrote:Yo everybody. Wasn't available all day. I finish reading everything and I have a lot of posts to answer to and I need to sleep so I will do that tomorrow. If I'm not vigid of course. 
So if you die tonight, it could only be because you were vigi'd? There's no chance the scum team would have killed you? That's only because you're lynchbait now, right? And not because you're on the team? 
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Yay, deadline! Can finally post this monster. I typed this up like 4 hours ago, and have had to sit on it all day. I have to say though, the posts that have been made since then have not really made me reconsider any of what I'm posting here.
WALL OF TEXT TIME!
I don't particularly expect to be killed tonight. But just in case that happens, here's where my thoughts are at.
Briefly, let's consider what it means if I do get killed. There was one post I made that I backreferenced twice, and is probably the post that would be most strongly associated with me. It was this one:
n00bKing wrote:
Situation: 11 players have votes in place, and 2 players are not voting. All 11 of the votes are on either batsnacks or Sulfurus. No one has a vote on anyone else.
At this stage of a Day 1, I'm more used to seeing a smattering of votes on some other miscellaneous players too. Maybe partially because the scum team doesn't want to have all their votes in one place, so they fan out some (and maybe a random Townie or two gets tunneled on their respective targets, and won't budge, even though no one else has any interest in following along).
Theory: This situation makes it pretty likely that one of the two players receiving votes is actually scum, and that we don't have a Town vs. Town situation for our two vote leaders. The scum team has not been able to fan out their votes, because they've needed "all hands on deck" to make sure that the scum player doesn't take a runaway lead in the voting.
Conclusion: Even though there's a lot of time left in the Phase, we may not want to introduce a third lynch target, and should instead stick to trying to pick between these two (since, if the Theory is correct, one of them would flip Red).
I didn't have any luck whatsoever trying to get geript out of the noose, and some players (like damdred and batsnacks) have been saying that a lot of my posts can just be safely ignored. Based on all that, I don't think the scum players would kill me, to make it look like they were trying to silence me, to FRAME one of Sulfurus/batsnacks, if they were both actually town. Rather, the scum team would only kill me if my Theory was indeed correct, and one of Sulfurus/batsnacks IS scum. So remember, if the scum team kills me, the Theory is correct.
We already know that I still think the Theory is correct, and I've mentioned some possible teammates for batsnacks (damdred, Moosy) if he is the bad guy in this scenario. And I said that I also had some ideas in mind about who could be possible teammates for Sulfurus, if he is the bad guy in this scenario. So here goes.
If Sulfurus is scum, my best guess for a teammate of his is ruXxar. And my second-best guess is Rels. Trying to catch the entirety of a 3-man scum team before anyone flips red might be a fool's errand, but there are a lot of interesting things to note, about the interactions (and sometimes, lack of interactions) between these 3 players.
Most of all, they do not speak to each other directly, they just speak OF each other indirectly. This could be because all 3 of them are on the Newbie list. A couple of them may be playing as scum in Mafia-by-forum for their very first time. And they may be trying to avoid talking with each other, because they question their ability to make the conversation seem authentic, rather than fabricated.
Sulfurus has not made any posts where he is speaking directly to ruXxar OR rels. None. NONE! Nor has ruXxar made ANY posts where he is speaking directly to Sulfurus.
Rels has made only 1 post where he is speaking directly to Sulfurus, and has made 2 posts where he is speaking directly to ruXxar. ruXxar has made only 1 post where he is speaking directly to Rels, and that was a post where he is answering a question that Rels has posed to him.
But although these guys don't ever talk to each other, they talk ABOUT each other plenty. If you look through their respective filters, you'll find a LOT of instances where they are soft-defending each other, and giving each other slight town reads. Occasionally one of them will give one of the others a hard town read instead. Sometimes they talk about their willingness to vote against one of the others, but it NEVER actually happens.
One of the most interesting posts in all of Day 1 was this one:
On June 14 2015 05:04 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2015 05:00 Sulfurus wrote:I didn't want to say anything about trfel before because his vote on Bats was protecting me but he is just straight up wrong on Rels. He makes a post here where he says rels made a bad town read on ruXxar even though (IMO) ruXx is one of the towniest players in the game. He also keeps saying that Rels is tunneled on Plant's only post and he basically dismisses the rest of his filter when in fact it's really good and shows a town who is focused on trying to solve the game. This is bold. Why does mafia post this?
This was the towniest post batsnacks made the whole phase. He's been in this vote race with Sulfurus for a lot of the day, yet he points out that it is curious (and yes, bold) for Sulfurus (if he were scum) to protect Rels, who has surfaced as a third horse in that vote race. If batsnacks is scum and trying to avoid the noose, why is he pointing out something Sulfurus had said that wouldn't make any sense, if Sulfurus were scum? So this reflects well on batsnacks, more than anything else he did the whole phase.
And it's a GOOD question. If Sulfurus is scum and trying to avoid the noose, why is he protecting this new potential target (Rels)? Well, one explanation that would make sense is: If Rels is ALSO scum.
Lastly, I'll take a look at how this potential Sulfurus/reXxar/Rels team fits in with my Theory about the Day 1 voting. Here's the vote count, at the time I posted the Theory:
On June 13 2015 20:33 Onegu wrote:
Oatsmaster (0): Kickstart
ruXxar (0): Trfel
Kickstart (0): Sulfurus
Sulfurus (5): Kickstart, geript, batsnacks, WaveOfShadow, scott11331373737373771317371373
Batsnacks (6): n00bKing, ruXxar, Oatsmaster, sulfurus, Rels, Trfel
scott113133373737131731371313713137 (0): Rels
Geript (0): WaveofShadow
Rels (0): batsnacks
Not Voting (2):
MoosyDoosy
Damdred
If the scum team is Sulfurus/ruXxar/Rels, then without a doubt, you've got "all hands on deck" in that vote count, keeping batsnacks in the lead ahead of Sulfurus. All 3 of them have their vote on batsnacks, to help make sure Sulfurus doesn't run out to an insurmountable lead.
And the timing of those votes makes sense too, in that scenario. ruXxar was on batsnacks early. It isn't until Sulfurus picks up a 2nd vote (the one from geript) that Sulfurus goes ahead and piles onto batsnacks. And it isn't until Sulfurus picks up a 3rd vote (the one from batsnacks) that Rels ALSO piles onto batsnacks.
But I'm sure they wouldn't be comfortable, all having their vote on the same guy, who they know would flip green. So once Trfel puts the 6th vote on batsnacks, Rels is looking to make a move. As I mentioned at the time, he goes OUTSIDE the game, to look at batsnacks' meta, to manufacture an excuse to move his vote off of him. If he can get a third horse going, it could shut down the usefulness of my Theory, because it can stall the batsnacks vs. Sulfurus debate for another day. So Rels goes after geript, who we now know was Town. He then IMMEDIATELY bails on the thread (in the same post where he puts his vote on geript) so that I won't have a chance to berate him for how his vote change violates the Conclusion of my Theory.
Rels can safely move off of batsnacks, because even in the 5 vs. 5 tie it creates, batsnacks would still be the lynch, and not Sulfurus. He can always shift back later if he needs to, but if they can get away with it, they really don't want to all be in the same place at the same time.
I said during Day 1 that Sulfurus was my "#2 suspect." batsnacks was #1. Later in the day, I said that Sulfurus was "still a Top 2 suspect for me." I no longer said he was #2, just Top 2. Because he had actually overtaken batsnacks as #1. I just hadn't moved my vote yet (or even admitted that Sulfurus was the new #1), because I wanted to see batsnacks follow through on his promise to "destroy the thread" if he stayed in the vote lead long enough.
Sulfurus would be my top lynch on Day 2. If he flips Red, is it better to go after ruXxar or Rels next? That's tough. The ties between Sulfurus and ruXxar are definitely stronger than the ties between Sulfurus and Rels. But Rels is being read by more people as being generally scummy right now, so he might be the easier lynch, even if ruXxar could be the more logical lynch.
I'll say again that I would not waste a cop check on ruXxar, because if he's scum, I think his most likely role is Ignignokt.
If Sulfurus flips Green, then it's back to the drawing board, to some extent. Hopefully that would mean a batsnacks scum team, and he's paired with either Moosy or damdred. But that case is tougher to make than Sulfurus/ruXxar/Rels.
If Sulfurus and batsnacks are both Green, then I have been wrong about pretty close to everything in this game, and you shouldn't even be interested in who I think the scum team might be, at that point. If it's something like Kickstart/Wave/Trfel, then...good luck with that.
Alright, that's it. Go Town!
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On June 15 2015 06:59 n00bKing wrote:
I don't particularly expect to be killed tonight.
derp.
I hope all the players on both sides have fun.
But most of all, I hope the Town winnnnnnnnnns!
Bye guys!
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EPT
