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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 16 2015 09:33 batsnacks wrote: If he's town, presumably to make sure that if you were scum, you wouldn't see it and then use a Bat Trap?Well he's right. Why bother to say this to you in code though? Was he defending me from you when I had votes or something? Alternatively, he could have just done that to pocket me.... and it worked, darn it. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 16 2015 09:39 batsnacks wrote: It was while I was voting for you, and while scott31337 was not.Trfel what was the timeframe for this? Was this d1 before you voted me? d1 after you voted me? d1 after you unvoted me? It would help a lot if you could quote the actual posts. I guess you're right, it's not really important. Kickstart is probably a better lynch. I just got really mad at the thought of getting pocketed like that. Would still like to see a response from scott31337, though, as he certainly isn't cleared. I need to go, I'll look through ruXxar's filter tonight. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Reading through ruXxar's filter now. If anyone wants to talk about anything, just let me know. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 16 2015 16:27 Rels wrote: This is a true statement, however I think his reduced activity makes it seem worse (he has less ability to push the thread where he wants it to go). Though he hasn't done this in the times where he has had a chance to.Hello (= Can you confirm that the way Kickstart changes opinion is super opportunistic ? Read his filter from his vote to me to the end. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
1. Excuses instead of scumhunting + Show Spoiler + I've said this before. I can't emphasize how important this is. He's been lurking and posting "I'm not scum, I'm a mislynch" instead of explaining why he isn't scum or doing actual scumhunting. This isn't a townie mindset at all. 2. Inconsistency with regards to cop check on himself + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2015 09:18 Kickstart wrote: Cop check on me is only useful in confirming im town. I am not mafia nor is anyone really suspicious of me of being mafia from what I can tell, aside from being somewhat concerned over my afkness, cop should check someone that they think will turn up red. You are awfully concerned with what blue roles we have and what they do and you are quite wrong in what actions they should be taking. Let the blue roles play their roles and stop trying to direct them into bad plays or outing themselves. On June 16 2015 08:07 Kickstart wrote: Hm, what caused the change? He says that a cop check on himself is bad because he is town, but then says that he shouldn't be lynched until he gets cop checked.Ill be a misslynch guys, if you are that concerned wait for a cop check or something. Should just lynch sulfurus like you were supposed to day 1. ##Unvote ##Vote Sulfuras I don't think I should need to say why this is incorrect, but here goes anyway: 1. If he is in fact town, the cop check comes back green, and it's generally not good for the cop to claim a green check 2. There might not even be a cop 3. Imagine if everyone was given the right to wait for a cop check instead of getting lynched This isn't townie at all, he's making reasons to not lynch him that he knows are bad and that he already directly contradicted. 3. Read progression + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2015 07:17 Kickstart wrote: This is Kickstart's first post back. And he didn't give a single reason for these reads.Originally was suspicious mainly of ruxx and sulf. Sulf still scummy ruxx not so much. Hate to just come in and agree with thread sentiment but rels is scummy as well. Tbh I just skimmed through most of the EoD and the night stuff though. On June 15 2015 07:18 Kickstart wrote: Adds a vote on Rels.meant to go ahead and vote. ##Vote Rels On June 16 2015 08:07 Kickstart wrote: And then he switched his vote to Sulfurus, with no reason at all? What happened to Rels?Ill be a misslynch guys, if you are that concerned wait for a cop check or something. Should just lynch sulfurus like you were supposed to day 1. ##Unvote ##Vote Sulfuras His wagon lost momentum. But Kickstart doesn't say why he doesn't want to lynch Rels any more, he doesn't say why Sulfurus is scummy until much later. He's not interested in actually pushing Sulfurus, but complaining about getting lynched for false reasons and inactivity. I don't see him being interested in catching scum. His read on ruXxar doesn't make any sense. It's in these two posts. On June 16 2015 11:08 Kickstart wrote: The people who are extremely interested in starting this wagon on me are damdred and ruxxar it seems. Damdred I don't know how to read because he did this same retarded shit last game and was town so I don't know. Ruxxar has been scummy all game. Going through Ruxxars filter he is literally all over the place. From weird asoociated cases that make no sense, to saying sulfuras is scum to then saying if sulfuras flips red town can go ahead and lynch him next (first he is sure sulf is scum then few posts later he is sure he is town). It doesn't make any sense. Parts of his filter seem reasonable but then others he is just way out there. Checked to see if there were any shenanis from him around the grept lynch but his vote is just as weird as anyone elses. He did a complete 180 on his bats read though but not sure that indicates much. On June 16 2015 11:11 Kickstart wrote: "So, ruXxar is scummy for all of these reasons. Oh wait, but this could also be a new town player. Sulfurus is scum though because I don't feel he's a new town player trying to figure things out."ebwop: should clarify that while ruxxar being all over the place is concerning, I think it could also be typical of a new town player trying to figure things out. So while some of his actions are suspect, I think sulfurus has been more scummy in that I dont get that same feeling from his posting. ..... That said, his read on Oatsmaster isn't inherently bad, though I disagree with it. ##vote Kickstart | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'll re-evaluate him more closely when I get a chance, but Kickstart is far and away the best lynch John Williams  | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 16 2015 17:09 Rels wrote: I was writing this answer, then realized I got a bit long-winded. Spoilered for those who aren't interested.Alright most people are in the US and sleeping so let's not circlejerk about KS and talk about something else. I you agree, I would like to have your opinion on this post of mine: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/486978-newbie-student-mafia-xi?page=57#1139 + Show Spoiler [Answer to Rels] + Haha, well first, I'm in the US.... Should probably go to bed sometime myself XD Anyway, I'm somewhat suspicious of scott31337 myself. As to your reasons for scott31337 and MoosyDoosy being scum, I disagree. First, despite n00bKing being a flipped town, and their statement that they liked his analysis, that doesn't mean they have to follow it exactly. N00bKing's post was based on a faulty premise, that our two main wagons some time before the Day 1 lynch contained one scum, therefore Sulfurus was scum. The real contribution that n00bKing provided was the unflipped association case, which while good, is still an unflipped association case and therefore is unreliable. In the same way, scumreading MoosyDoosy and scott31337 for this reason suffers from unflipped association (relies on Sulfurus being mafia). If there's something scummy about these votes, this isn't why. Furthermore, mafia simply won't be able to get away with choosing their targets based on a dead townie's post, as doing so is terrible and ignores a ton of information that's filled the thread since then. For example, you've started looking a ton more townie since n00bKing made this post. However, Sulfurus doesn't seem likely to put up a lot of resistance to being lynched due to his inactivity. So there is mafia motivation to lynch someone else and then Sulfurus later, though this wouldn't be based on n00bKing's post. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 16 2015 17:30 Rels wrote: Yeah, I'll definitely need to look at scott31337 Day 3 as well.Alright TY. It's true that it is super weak. I agree that them utilizing noobking's post is NAI at best. But what I'm suspicious of is that they both looked like they wanted to jump on my wagon at any cost at the start of the day. I also made a case on scott, but for now KS is scummier. I'll update my scott case day 3 to see if I still want to lynch him or no. Anyway, I'm getting really sleepy, not sure I'm much more help here. See you guys tomorrow. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
If there's anything anyone wants to talk to me about, I'd really appreciate it if you brought it up before then. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 17 2015 01:54 Kickstart wrote: This post is the worse of the two he just posted, though the other is pretty awful as well.Now looked at Trfels case and it is ridiculous as well. Same point about being afk and coming back and going with sentiment. Fine, that I am guilty of. The idea what I've said nothing about ruxxar and sulfurus is ridiculous as I was the first to push them both and call them scummy day 1. I suggest you go re read it instead of making shit up about me never mentioning them. The cop check thing I'm not even serious about. I think this is a ridiculous lynch attempt on me, and I just proposed that if someone is cop and was truly concerned about me they could check me. Turns out that we could have a godfather so that doesn't even matter. For anyone to propose that I am the optimal lynch today is in my mind an attempt to throw town off. First of all there are no strong scum reads or cases on me. The ones put forth all revovle around what I did once I came back from being afk for well over a day, if you can't see why someone would behave as I did after that then you aren't thinking clearly. There are targets much scummier than me. Ask yourself what happens if I get lynched and flip green? You have waisted an entire cycle on a ridiculous lynch and you will have gotten absolutely no information. And you won't even have an easy time sorting out the town from the scum on my wagon because they both will pull the same bullshit the moment I flip 'Oh well guess he was town after all, too bad he shouldn't have afked". And that is where town will be, with nothing gained. Furthermore, by now Kickstart played less than half of the game before going afk. And instead of defending himself, he just says to ignore everything that's happened and only look at the first portion of Day 1. Any discussion of his alignment would be flawed if it did not mention what he's done since returning. Seven minutes before this post, Kickstart posted this: On June 17 2015 01:47 Kickstart wrote: So yes, his cop check comment was definitely a joke.I proposed cop check if you were actually worried about me, but still your only points are that I was afk and then came back to the thread, which is fucking awful as it is in no way alignment indicative. I'm happy with this lynch. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 17 2015 02:44 Damdred wrote: On the contrary.Like if you want to lynch ks ok... But everyone is clamering to the cop check point and its a bad point and doesn't make anyone acum O-o It shows that Kickstart is willing to do anything to survive. If he's town, here's what he did:
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 17 2015 03:18 Damdred wrote: No townie would make 1st post saying not to lie, scumread some1 for disagreeing, then lie.So basically no towny would ever do this? And he's made several reads some in a list post obviously. But this doesn't make someone scum. The cop check point isn't the best | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 17 2015 03:27 Damdred wrote: Townies do this all the time. town lies more than mafia. Why? They aren't as careful with what they say. so no that doesn't make someone scum i g2g for a bit but if town fabricates reasons for scumread on some1 i have no words | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 17 2015 03:33 Damdred wrote: If he thinks that it is acceptable for town to sometimes lie, then he cannot scumread ruXxar for saying this. This was the main part of his case on ruXxar.I don't see how that's fabricated at all, you can make a statement, scum read someone and then contradict yourself I see it all the time On June 17 2015 03:57 Sulfurus wrote: Wait, what? I don't understand this at all....Sorry if I didn't make myself clear but this is the exact problem I was trying to fix. You see Oats is mafia but not the one you have been looking for because you guys have been too tunnel visioned on Kicks. Anyway I still think Kicks is mafia and will switch my vote to him to save a town but if there is a mafia we will lose to it will probably be Oats On June 17 2015 04:54 Rels wrote: This isn't a townie post, this is what people have been begging Kickstart to do all day. People have been like "Kickstart if you are town, do this." And only now does he say "I'm going to do this." There's no reason he can't fake this post as mafia. It doesn't mean anything unless he actually follows through.I can see why everybody is starting to switch. This post screams townie. But what's happening right now seems like mafia doing a last minute switch, especially at a time when the two people doing cases on kickstart (Trfel and me) said they weren't going to be around for deadline. On June 17 2015 05:50 MoosyDoosy wrote: This isn't very towny at all...Do I have anything new to come up with? No, because I like being consistent unlike a certain someone whose viewpoint changes with every couple of posts they make. Kickstart's post is decent enough, though. Maybe there's more to his Oatsmaster read than I thought initially, I've always had a hard time reading Oatsmaster. His inactivity is all across the board, and he's almost always extremely aggressive and scumreads people without stating his reasons all the time. I'll lynch Sulfurus here, I suppose. Kickstart's post is good enough to buy him some time, at least. I really don't think that lynching ruXxar is a good idea, I just get the feeling that he's town from his filter. He's putting in a lot of effort and I can generally see where he's coming from. ##vote Sulfurus | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 17 2015 06:39 Rels wrote: One thing I noticed in Kickstart's post that I really liked is how his reads often fit an OMGUS perspective, however he openly acknowledged that and you could see how he tried to avoid it. That looked fairly towny, and also hard to fake.OK if even Trfel votes Sulfu, I suppose KS is not going to be the lynch today. I still think Sulfu is town. He wouldn't have hard defended me if he was mafia last day. I still think KS is mafia. One big post one hour before the deadline is not enough to make me change my mind. Especially since there is no summary of any cases, it's a lot of words to say very few reasons. Good reasons, but very few for the size of the posts. I'll just hope I'm wrong. Kickstart's tone changed significantly from the moment where the pressure on him backed off a little, but I'm not sure that is alignment indicative. Either way, with those really strange posts from Sulfurus a few hours back, I'd rather lynch him for now. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 17 2015 06:47 batsnacks wrote: I just don't think there's enough time.Shenanies onto scott? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
So relieved now. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
(note: all vote counts except the final vote count are unofficial, created by me) Vote Count #1 Rels (6): MoosyDoosy, scott31337, ruXxar, Damdred, Kickstart, ruXxar (1): batsnacks Sulfurus (1): WaveofShadow Vote Count #2 (Rels wagon loses votes) Rels (2): MoosyDoosy, ruXxar (1): batsnacks Sulfurus (1): WaveofShadow MoosyDoosy (1): ruXxar Vote Count #3 (Kickstart wagon starts) Kickstart (4): Sulfurus (3): ruXxar (1): batsnacks, Oatsmaster (1): Sulfurus Rels (0): MoosyDoosy (0): Vote Count #4 (Sulfurus wagon) Kickstart (5): Sulfurus (6): ruXxar (0): Oatsmaster (0): Rels (0): MoosyDoosy (0): After this, scott31337 switched from Kickstart to Sulfurus, and then the day ended. The wagon on Rels started fairly quickly in the day. When the wagon lost steam (vote count #2), things looked very open. The Kickstart wagon started, but only reached a maximum of five votes. There were only a few hours where the Kickstart wagon seemed significantly larger than the Sulfurus wagon. Assuming for the moment that Kickstart is scum and Rels is town, that means that mafia had an early mislynch set up, but lost the momentum. And there was about a full day in between when the Rels wagon started to lose steam and when the Sulfurus wagon really started. Looking at the Day 1 voting, Sulfurus was almost always (before the geript push) a top contender to be lynched. Given the frequency I've seen scum lynched on Day 1 (once in my mafia career), I don't feel like scum has that much thread presence. And if Kickstart is scum with Sulfurus, that means that there was only one scum buddy who would have been there in the time in question to create a new push (after the Rels push died down). And even so, this just isn't realistic. So Kickstart is very likely town here. This makes the Sulfurus wagon look really pure. Kickstart (again), Damdred, and WaveofShadow look pretty good. Batsnacks is looking quite towny this game already, and MoosyDoosy's vote is yet another point in his favor. Scott31337 switched after the outcome was clear, so his vote does not count for him. Due to how close the lynch was, it feels like scum had a lot of force on Kickstart. Rels and ruXxar look a little more suspicious here, but Oatsmaster and scott31337 look a lot worse. While it's possible that Damdred and/or WaveofShadow are scum here, it feels very unlikely. I'll be back with more analysis tonight. Good work! | ||
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