EPTIt's weird to post that then.
On June 22 2015 19:49 Kickstart wrote:
The fact that wave has rels as 100% town and is ride or die on it concerns me.
The fact that wave has rels as 100% town and is ride or die on it concerns me.
Newbie Student Mafia XI - Page 16
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Rels
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It's weird to post that then. | ||
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On June 22 2015 19:47 Kickstart wrote: And what in the fuck have I tried to convince you of. On June 22 2015 19:49 Kickstart wrote: Rels if you really think I'm scum with sulf+oats after how I interacted with them this game I don't know what to tell you other than you are wrong and that that is ridiculous. On June 22 2015 20:02 Kickstart wrote: How many times do I have to explain to you how it works. Be one with your words and stop trying. My opinion may change tomorrow, but for now you're mafia with Oats in my mind. | ||
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On June 22 2015 15:27 Trfel wrote: Wow. Normally cop claims make the game easier, you just lynch the red check and if it's wrong, lynch the claimed cop. But at MYLO or LYLO, that doesn't work. Before the cop claim, I was scumreading Oatsmaster fairly strongly, and I was pretty convinced that WaveofShadow was town. Setup Analysis + Show Spoiler + We know for a fact that town had a Doctor and a Mad Hatter. Doctor is a very strong power role, and Mad Hatter seems to be of about medium strength (about the same as a vigilante). We don't really know what roles mafia has. However, most (13 player normal) mafia games are two moderately strong town power roles versus one strong mafia role and one weak mafia role. One example of this is the setup normally used in minis, accepted as a very standard setup. The newbie setup is as follows: This game uses a variable open setup. When the game begins, one of the following setups will be chosen: Cop is a strong role, Doctor is a strong role, Vigilante is a moderately strong role, and Veteran is a bit weaker. The setup is at most two strong roles versus one and a half scum roles (Godfather is weaker).A) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Doctor, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon B) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Veteran, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon C) 1 Town Vigilante, 1 Town Doctor, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon D) 1 Town Vigilante, 1 Town Veteran, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon Here are a list of the roles in the 13 player normal games with the last post in the past three months (bumps excluded, also note that all setups are 10 town versus 3 mafia):
In contrast, two of the listed games (I Still Cant Believe It's Not Themed Mafia and Game of Thrones Mini Mafia) had a mafia role with no purpose. Framer in the first game, Godfather in the second. It feels like having a Cop in addition to a Doctor and Mad Hatter is very unlikely. But you know what. For the sake of it I'll check if what he's saying in this post is true. If it is then I won't move my vote. If he lied then I'll vote WOS + Trfel with you. | ||
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Read the list of game Trfel quoted, and look the newbie games. On June 22 2015 15:27 Trfel wrote: Wow. Normally cop claims make the game easier, you just lynch the red check and if it's wrong, lynch the claimed cop. But at MYLO or LYLO, that doesn't work. Before the cop claim, I was scumreading Oatsmaster fairly strongly, and I was pretty convinced that WaveofShadow was town. Setup Analysis + Show Spoiler + We know for a fact that town had a Doctor and a Mad Hatter. Doctor is a very strong power role, and Mad Hatter seems to be of about medium strength (about the same as a vigilante). We don't really know what roles mafia has. However, most (13 player normal) mafia games are two moderately strong town power roles versus one strong mafia role and one weak mafia role. One example of this is the setup normally used in minis, accepted as a very standard setup. The newbie setup is as follows: This game uses a variable open setup. When the game begins, one of the following setups will be chosen: Cop is a strong role, Doctor is a strong role, Vigilante is a moderately strong role, and Veteran is a bit weaker. The setup is at most two strong roles versus one and a half scum roles (Godfather is weaker).A) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Doctor, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon B) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Veteran, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon C) 1 Town Vigilante, 1 Town Doctor, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon D) 1 Town Vigilante, 1 Town Veteran, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon Here are a list of the roles in the 13 player normal games with the last post in the past three months (bumps excluded, also note that all setups are 10 town versus 3 mafia):
In contrast, two of the listed games (I Still Cant Believe It's Not Themed Mafia and Game of Thrones Mini Mafia) had a mafia role with no purpose. Framer in the first game, Godfather in the second. It feels like having a Cop in addition to a Doctor and Mad Hatter is very unlikely. We have newbie IX, VIII, VII ... where is X ? Here it is. By now if you read the "fuck" above I suppose you guessed it. Three power roles. So Trfel: - Left out ONE game of newbie these past three month - The game he left out was ofc the game where there was three power roles - Then went on to claim he went through ALL mini normal games of this past 3 month, and ALL had a maximum two power roles Fuck. | ||
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I also have to leave work so will be afk for one hour more or less. But right now, with Trfel fucking lying, the only mafia team that makes sense in my mind is WOS / Trfel. I can see Trfel easily as mafia. But WOS is like my super hard town read. I'll have to read all his filter again tonight. Well. During my afk time, ##Vote WaveofShadow | ||
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Who is the second mafia ? | ||
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On June 23 2015 02:11 ruXxar wrote: Rels, I don't understand your reaction. If trfel left out that game on purpose to frame oat, then obviously trfel is mafia. On June 12 2015 07:36 ruXxar wrote: Usually you want to hear the reasoning of the person you're asking. If someone answers the question before him, you potentially open up for someone else to make a logical conclusion beforehand, and then the guy the question was directed at get an easy bandwagon onto that guys conclusions. At least that is what I think. Some things didn't change right ? (= | ||
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OK I give up. I have the biggest gut feel that WOS + Trfel is a thing. But rereading WOS' filter, it's so townie. And rereading Oatsmaster, I forgot he fucking attacked his "greencheck" after ignoring him all D3. The facts are clear. Just can't shake that weird feeling, like when scott's lynch was so easy. | ||
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On June 23 2015 02:54 Trfel wrote: You're right, I missed that game somehow. See the spoiler for more power role analysis. + Show Spoiler + The game had town Roleblocker, Cop, and Mason pair versus mafia Roleblocker and Godfather. So, this is four town power roles. However, a mason pair isn't very strong, the only real use is to claim (and even this can be unreliable). Overall, I'd say both masons are about the strength of one weaker normal blue role. Furthermore, town Roleblockers are really weird. At the start of the game they are extremely weak, being as likely to hit town power roles as mafia carrying KP. Looking at the setup, the town has roleblocker as a possible role option, but no watcher/tracker. Therefore, in this setup mafia will be using their least suspected player to deliver KP, making the roleblocker extremely weak until there are few people left, when it's extremely strong. Despite this game having four power roles, they're generally weaker. This game is balanced, despite mafia having the same, standard roleblocker/godfather setup as in all of the other, standard, two power role games. Mad Hatter feels like a moderately strong role. Compare it to vigilante. When the Mad Hatter gets lynched, it's like a vigilante who gets to fire in the day. Otherwise, it's like a vigilante who gets to hold their bullet until the end of the game, but doesn't have to worry about being killed early. The disadvantage of the mad hatter is that their action is far less immediate than the vigilante's, and the vigilante can sometimes provide a confirmed town (which the mad hatter can rarely do). Doctor is an extremely strong power role throughout the game. Can help confirm people, can help keep top townies alive, can block mafia KP, can force mafia to choose sub-optimal night kills. No downside to targeting town power roles (actually, an upside), and no downside to targeting mafia. Cop is fairly strong, but I've heard that Doctor is a bit stronger. It's hard to see town having the blue power of Cop/Doctor/Mad Hatter. Still, if Oatsmaster is the cop, then he's the cop. The setup analysis is something to use to help make a decision, but it's not a stand-alone argument. It's important, but much less important than standard forms of analysis. If the only reason you think that Oatsmaster is scum is because of the power role balance, then you need to rethink that read. Look, I kinda agree with your analysis. But I don't care for excuses. You did forget one game which convienently had 3 power roles. You can explain it all you want after, the fact you did is real and won't disappear. Anyway unless ruxxar or Kickstart can find some WOS scumslips, I'll stay like that. | ||
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On June 23 2015 03:06 WaveofShadow wrote: This really annoys me for the record. Like if you want to lynch me and think Oats is actually the cop, fine, but to give out arbitrary 'negative points' AFTER you're already voting me because I'm not in front of my computer right when you want me to be is horseshit. Again as I've mentioned before, by the PoE I've done today so far I'd guess last scum to be Ruxxar but that's not complete. My best course of action today in order to ensure this game continues is to make sure as many people as possible are on Oats to minimize the ability for last second shenanigans or switching, so I'll concern myself with that when he flips red. I find that super weird. You know for a FACT that Oats is mafia. You've known for more then 24 hours. But you just did nothing really, when you could be hunting scum. You are the only one that can do it with certitude. You seem too ... static when even if Oats is scum, we still have another MYLO tomorrow. | ||
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On June 23 2015 03:08 WaveofShadow wrote: And I'm pretty sure it's been explained to you already (and shown by the geript flip) that isolated scumslips are just not likely to come from scum as is. If you're to call me scum it should be blaring at you from the heavens. There should be something overarching about my play that feels wrong, or forced, or with a specific agenda in mind, or whatever. But I'm willing to bet you're not getting that, and I'm pretty sure I know why that is. You're actually so wrong. It's exactly the inverse. I HAVE the fucking feeling you're weird, but can't find any hints to that. | ||
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When I found that Trfel's missing game I had the feeling I was missing something. Like he did a case on everyone but not a "super scummy" Sulfurus. You and Trfel had opposite opinions all game too. That's almost look like that's on purpose. On me, Damdred, Sulfurus, scott ... you were two of the most town read players, but never killed and never on the same page. And lastly, I find weird that you had NO thoughts regarding the last scum, given that if you are really town, you must have thought about the game during 24 hours knowing Oats is mafia. Voilà, here is my feeling. | ||
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On June 23 2015 03:23 WaveofShadow wrote: That's not true, I was 100% on the same page about scott by the end of that day, and as I recall we also had similar thoughts regarding Moosy and maybe kickstart as well? I'm nto sure what having differing opinions from someone is supposed to say about me being scum. And I don't have NO thoughts regarding last scum. I've been attempting to analyze while I've been here in between bouts of defending myself and responding to pressure, I just currently feel that ensuring I don't get lynched is the mroe important factor here since, you know, me getting lynched LOSES town the game. OK OK if you'e mafia you're too strong with words for me. It's not all too. The cases on Oats are too strong to be false I feel. Like the fact he attacked his greenchecked just before claiming ... | ||
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Gonna play some Zelda skyward sword. Will check a few times to see if anything happens. Anyway, see you later (= | ||
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