EPTNewbie Student Mafia XI - Page 120
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Kickstart
United States1941 Posts
| ||
|
Kickstart
United States1941 Posts
Want to hear everyone elses thoughts on a no lynch to give oats cop (if he is) another check. | ||
|
Kickstart
United States1941 Posts
Gonna go eat and think about it. | ||
|
Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
Also, look at waves reaction man, it's super telling that he's mafia. | ||
|
Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
You gotta decide today. | ||
|
Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
On June 22 2015 09:05 ruXxar wrote: This is a strange request all of a sudden. Why did you want a no-lynch? so I could get another check without having to make magic happen. Now it's too late though | ||
|
Onegu
United States9695 Posts
| ||
|
Kickstart
United States1941 Posts
I suggest people read his filter, especially recently and see what they think and if they come to the same conclusion as I do. If Oats fakeclaimed I will just never play with him again sigh. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Normally cop claims make the game easier, you just lynch the red check and if it's wrong, lynch the claimed cop. But at MYLO or LYLO, that doesn't work. Before the cop claim, I was scumreading Oatsmaster fairly strongly, and I was pretty convinced that WaveofShadow was town. Setup Analysis + Show Spoiler + We know for a fact that town had a Doctor and a Mad Hatter. Doctor is a very strong power role, and Mad Hatter seems to be of about medium strength (about the same as a vigilante). We don't really know what roles mafia has. However, most (13 player normal) mafia games are two moderately strong town power roles versus one strong mafia role and one weak mafia role. One example of this is the setup normally used in minis, accepted as a very standard setup. The newbie setup is as follows: This game uses a variable open setup. When the game begins, one of the following setups will be chosen: Cop is a strong role, Doctor is a strong role, Vigilante is a moderately strong role, and Veteran is a bit weaker. The setup is at most two strong roles versus one and a half scum roles (Godfather is weaker).A) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Doctor, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon B) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Veteran, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon C) 1 Town Vigilante, 1 Town Doctor, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon D) 1 Town Vigilante, 1 Town Veteran, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon Here are a list of the roles in the 13 player normal games with the last post in the past three months (bumps excluded, also note that all setups are 10 town versus 3 mafia):
In contrast, two of the listed games (I Still Cant Believe It's Not Themed Mafia and Game of Thrones Mini Mafia) had a mafia role with no purpose. Framer in the first game, Godfather in the second. It feels like having a Cop in addition to a Doctor and Mad Hatter is very unlikely. | ||
|
ruXxar
Norway5669 Posts
On June 22 2015 15:27 Trfel wrote: + Show Spoiler + Wow. Normally cop claims make the game easier, you just lynch the red check and if it's wrong, lynch the claimed cop. But at MYLO or LYLO, that doesn't work. Before the cop claim, I was scumreading Oatsmaster fairly strongly, and I was pretty convinced that WaveofShadow was town. Setup Analysis + Show Spoiler + We know for a fact that town had a Doctor and a Mad Hatter. Doctor is a very strong power role, and Mad Hatter seems to be of about medium strength (about the same as a vigilante). We don't really know what roles mafia has. However, most (13 player normal) mafia games are two moderately strong town power roles versus one strong mafia role and one weak mafia role. One example of this is the setup normally used in minis, accepted as a very standard setup. The newbie setup is as follows: This game uses a variable open setup. When the game begins, one of the following setups will be chosen: Cop is a strong role, Doctor is a strong role, Vigilante is a moderately strong role, and Veteran is a bit weaker. The setup is at most two strong roles versus one and a half scum roles (Godfather is weaker).A) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Doctor, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon B) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Veteran, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon C) 1 Town Vigilante, 1 Town Doctor, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon D) 1 Town Vigilante, 1 Town Veteran, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon Here are a list of the roles in the 13 player normal games with the last post in the past three months (bumps excluded, also note that all setups are 10 town versus 3 mafia):
In contrast, two of the listed games (I Still Cant Believe It's Not Themed Mafia and Game of Thrones Mini Mafia) had a mafia role with no purpose. Framer in the first game, Godfather in the second. It feels like having a Cop in addition to a Doctor and Mad Hatter is very unlikely. And your conclusion is..? | ||
|
ruXxar
Norway5669 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm still analyzing stuff. | ||
|
ruXxar
Norway5669 Posts
 . | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
It still hurts. I refuse to make a similarly terrible mistake again. | ||
|
ruXxar
Norway5669 Posts
Right now I trust you more than anyone in this game. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 21 2015 17:37 Oatsmaster wrote: Im cop, red checked wave yesterday. greenchecked bats n1, kickstart n2. Oatsmaster on batsnacks + Show Spoiler + Oatsmaster scumread batsnacks from early in Day 1, and pushed this scumread consistently. However, as the lynch deadline drew closer, he switched his vote from batsnacks to geript. This progression doesn't make much sense, as I described previously: + Show Spoiler + Here's some of Oatsmaster's discussion with batsnacks after MoosyDoosy voted for Sulfurus (putting him into the lead). No posts are omitted. On June 13 2015 22:14 Oatsmaster wrote: dammit bats I want to lynch mafia today but you are the scummiest. On June 13 2015 22:15 Oatsmaster wrote: argh now i feel like im nitpicking. Ok Ok fine. On June 13 2015 22:17 batsnacks wrote: I never voted him! And I did explain that no one should claim! And I am NOT the scummiest you are just caught in a logical fallacy that I WILL get you out of. On June 13 2015 22:21 Oatsmaster wrote: Here, it feels that Oatsmaster is suggesting lynching geript with batsnacks, who seven minutes ago he said was the scummiest in the thread. And batsnacks made a whole one post in this time.You did. voting thread doesnt count. If we didnt have a voting thead, you wouldve voted. Answer the question. Also, what logical fallacy? That you are useless and are not helping town at all, that you constantly complain about getting scumread and you do nothing but scumread the person everyone else thinks is mafia? Sure, logical fallacy. You would lynch geript? On June 13 2015 22:42 Damdred wrote: Yeah bats is a completely stupid lynch, here. (Never use this again bats is to smart a player) If you look at bats last scum/town games you see a few things crop up. 1) as scum once it's clear that he is going to,be one of,l the leading wagons his care factor diminishes to a few posts randomly complaining without doing anything about it or pushing his own thoughts. In comparison here he is pushing what he thinks explaining why he's town,and,not giving,up. I liked bats when I first read his filter. He keeps pushing the thread. 2) as scum, he has developed an ability to have weak scum reads to a point. Here he has well reasoned or seemingly well reasoned reasons for calling people out. 3) resorts to trolling as scum when he's caught. He's not doing this here. Bats is town, besides meta. Biggest filter, most controversial figure d1. Okish reads. Leave the bats alone So, Oatsmaster had enough doubts about his scumread of batsnacks to agree to lynch geript with him. And this was all before batsnacks caught geript's supposed scumslip. Oatsmaster didn't return until after End of Day. This quote didn't make any sense before his cop claim. And now it makes even less sense. If batsnacks looked towny, why does he cop check him Night 1? It's nonsensical. (please, no one but Oatsmaster answer this...) Imagine that this quote is somehow a mistake, that someone else hacked Oatsmaster's account and posted this. Then you have Oatsmaster scumreading and pushing batsnacks all game, then suddenly unvoting him and voting geript with batsnacks, then cop checking batsnacks Night 1. It STILL doesn't make sense. Oatsmaster on Kickstart + Show Spoiler + On June 17 2015 08:39 Oatsmaster wrote: So checking Kickstart Night 2 does fit his filter. And he disagreed with the voting analysis that I posted which I feel proved that Kickstart is town. He never bothered to discuss my argument, though, which I would have expected for someone intending to cop check Kickstart that night. "Yea OK I don't agree with that trfel." isn't very helpful for discussion.I really dont think anyone should be given a townread for that lynch without kickstart flipping. Sulph looked really bad the whole game, it might just have been a bus. Also, both sulph and kickstart expressed an interest in lynching me. Which is really weird. Scott switched really late, like 10 minutes before the deadline and you guys are calling him town?!?? A lot of Oatsmaster's Night 2 posts were about people making townreads based on the Sulfurus flip. Oatsmaster continually said that townreads shouldn't be made without knowing Kickstart's alignment. So, when he comes back on Day 3 (supposedly knowing that Kickstart is town), the first thing he says is that Sulfurus was definitely being bussed by mafia. When he knows that it was a town versus mafia lynch where the votes were 6 to 5 pretty close to the deadline (check it yourself if you don't believe me, using host-created vote counts won't show it). Choice of Cop Checks + Show Spoiler + As I described previously, Oatsmaster was scumreading and slow pushing Damdred for quite some time. However, he never truly pushed Damdred until after scott31337 was lynched. The question is, why didn't he cop check Damdred? Here's his explanation: On June 21 2015 18:38 Oatsmaster wrote: So, Oatsmaster thought that Damdred was mafia anyway, and he doesn't seem to think that he needed any help pushing for Damdred's lynch at all. Well, the whole game didn't think that Damdred was mafia, this is obviously false. I didn't, at least (and my reasons for this were clearly stated, though Oatsmaster didn't bother talking about this).Dude why would I check damdred if I think he's mafia anyway. The whole game thought he was mafia. And it wasn't mylo/lylo. I checked wos cause I was pretty sure he was mafia and nobody would believe my push. Dude it wasn't a trap, it was to see if anyone would go on it. And to not slip that I'm cop. Cause it would be super weird for me to suddenly town read someone I've kinda semi scum read the whole game. Again, why would I fake such a "bad" check. On June 17 2015 15:28 Oatsmaster wrote: If Damdred is clearly scum and the entire game says so, why is Oatsmaster bothering to try and set a trap for him, and why is he disappointed when Damdred doesn't fall into it? This doesn't make sense.You tried, you called him mafia and scummy a few times but that kinda shriveled. damn it, you didnt get caught by my trap. Hey kickstart, if damdred is mafia, you arent. Can you explain the smartest possible reads possible assuming Im town kickstart? | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
Another thing. The timing of his relation with Kickstart doesn't make sense. Here is what happened chronogically: 1 Oats start scumreading Kickstart D2H39. Note that he defended him pretty hard all day before that post. On June 16 2015 22:42 Oatsmaster wrote: Pretty ok case I guess. Dammit I hate being a wrong but now kickstart actually looks like mafia. It's weird that sulph wants to lynch me rather than kickstart though. 2 Oats ignored completely Kickstart day 3. Only post about Kickstart all D3: On June 19 2015 11:37 Oatsmaster wrote: Wave I forgot I posted that post when you didnt answer. And cause everyone wants to lynch scott, which I am completely ok with. Kickstart is just scumreading me to be a dick right now lol. 3 THEN he attacked Kickstart starting N3. Here are the posts: + Show Spoiler + Night 3: On June 21 2015 01:26 Oatsmaster wrote: Why wouldn't I vote for sulph if I'm mafia? To make this argument is the wrong answer btw. Also I changed my Mind about Kickstart as you can see later. Day 3: On June 21 2015 09:13 Oatsmaster wrote: + Show Spoiler + On June 21 2015 07:09 Kickstart wrote: Lol at bats failuire :D. Means he took out Damdred with him correct? -_______- Well that puts the damdred lynch nonsense to rest that some were pushing. I really think we kill oats here but we can't afford any mistakes so will see. On June 21 2015 06:52 Kickstart wrote: Doubt I'll die with some others still here but just in case, kill oats~ On June 21 2015 01:17 Kickstart wrote: Oats is so scummy here and should never have been allowed to live to this point. He is just starting shit fights and calling every single player in the game scum with 0 reasoning and then peacing out or telling every person who makes any point whatsoever that their point is bad or doesn't make sense while he himself gets hung up over the most useless things. Like this 'scumslip' he keeps going on about. It clearly wasn't a fucking scumslip because the guy flipped town so why the fuck oats is so hung up on it is beyond me, besides it being the new thing he can shit up the thread and argue with someone about without actually contributing in any way. If he turns out to be town he has been fucking useless and should feel bad. On June 20 2015 07:30 Kickstart wrote: zzzzzzzzzzz Was wanting to switch to oats but overslept and no one was here any fucking ways. Where does this put us. 2 mafia vs how many town still? 2v4? Nightkill we are 2v3. Yep, have to get the next one right boys. On June 19 2015 23:05 Kickstart wrote: So scot n oats still scummy to me. Only thing I want to note is if scott flips town I am going to have to have a look at bats and trfel for telling him to not talk to them because they aren't listening. I mean I think scott is scum too and trfel is like shitting town rainbows any time he decides to post but yeah. On June 19 2015 04:56 Kickstart wrote: Yeah I have no recent experience with oats so I can't speak to that. He just seems to give no fucks about the game or even trying to figure it out. He just comes in and nitpicks at peoples points or makes some insane mafia teams that make no sense. My only experience with him was 3 years ago and he was scum that game so he was much different. On June 19 2015 04:41 Kickstart wrote: He tends to sit back like this. But he does come in when it counts or when there is pressure and does decent then. That is how I felt he did day2 and that is why I like him for now. I would agree that other than the day2 he has been very under the radar but that is exactly how I felt about him in the 1 other games I played with him (thin it was just 1  ) and that is just how he plays. Scott is a good lynch today. My worry is with Oats is that he could be mafia or town and just being lazy, but if we allow him to live to mylo or lylo we are in a real bad spot having to try to read him, whereas almost everyone else would be easier to read at that point I think. That said we still have time and a scott lynch again looks the best to me (I'm about equal on oats vs scott lynch but seems most people arent as sure on an oats lynch as I am).On June 19 2015 03:49 Kickstart wrote: Actually tbh I would just go between oats and scott now. Rels and ruxxar have posted a lot and both of them look better now so. Would lynch oats/scott today. On June 19 2015 03:48 Kickstart wrote: So you saying rels ruxxar and oats arent scummy and you want to lynch scott? Not sure I agree that anything sulfurus does makes them 3 town but I said those are the 4 I would lynch into and I still feel that way. In order it is probably like oats, scott, rels, ruxxar at this point with oats being who I would most want to lynch. On June 21 2015 08:12 Kickstart wrote: Don't like the position we are in. Oats deserves to die but if he is town then he fucked all of us by deciding to not play this game. If he is town now is the time for him to do something, otherwise he is still the best lynch. In the past 2 pages of his filter, kickstart has posted like 12 posts telling people to lynch me. That seems like more than usual paranoia. especially since hes wrong. ##vote kickstart Also all his arguments are really bad and basically hinge on him not liking the way I play, rather than any real reasons why Im mafia. On June 21 2015 09:24 Oatsmaster wrote: So I doubt bats was a hatter snipe. Wave is more scummy than kickstart though. Man I actually have to go through his filter and make a case. Life sucks. Also he will be pushing my ass for really bad reasons. Can I preempt his omgus? On June 21 2015 11:20 Oatsmaster wrote: Lol kick, why would I switch to you if I'm mafia. Can you explain that? Why don't I just lynch sulf especially since I can make up a real good reason why he's mafia. The bad thing about this is that I definitely will look like town if I'm mafia. I think wave is mafia because he didn't die. I think you are mafia because the only thing on your mind the past 3 days is lynching me. When there are still 2 mafia alive. Why do you say I'm hedging my vote just cause I call more than one person mafia at a time? Also how am I the only person to think that Scott and damdred were mafia. Everyone in the game thought they were mafia. On June 21 2015 12:14 Oatsmaster wrote: Man do I really have to pos. "oh iI think bats is town. ? Isn't obvious when I vote that I think a certain person is townier or scummier??? I voted for kickstart because I thought trfels case was good and I have been burned a lotta times by afk townies, aka damdred. You know, when someone says someone else is scummy it doesn't mean that he is the scummiest. I thought I made it pretty damn obvious by my voting that it was the person I thought was the scummiest. On June 21 2015 12:35 Oatsmaster wrote: I'm not looking for the best chance to lynch scum. I'm looking for scum. Why don't we nolynch here so you can prove me wrong Kickstarter? 4 Finally, he said he attacked Kickstart, whom he presumably greenchecked. First he explained that was to get reaction from other people: On June 21 2015 17:47 Oatsmaster wrote: And, the "attack" on kickstart was for reactions from other people. I retracted like 30 minutes later. Its totally a strawman. 5 One hour later, to the same question "why did you attack you greencheck", he says it was not really to get reactions to other people, but so mafia don't find out he was a cop: On June 21 2015 18:38 Oatsmaster wrote: Dude it wasn't a trap, it was to see if anyone would go on it. And to not slip that I'm cop. Cause it would be super weird for me to suddenly town read someone I've kinda semi scum read the whole game. So we have two lies in here: First lie Oats said on D4H10 that he attacked Kickstart to get reactions from other people. On June 21 2015 17:47 Oatsmaster wrote: And, the "attack" on kickstart was for reactions from other people. Oats said on D4H11 that he didn't really attack Kickstart to get reactions from other people, but to be less suspicious. On June 21 2015 18:38 Oatsmaster wrote: Dude it wasn't a trap, it was to see if anyone would go on it. And to not slip that I'm cop. Cause it would be super weird for me to suddenly town read someone I've kinda semi scum read the whole game. The fact that Oats don't answer to the same question with the same answers pretty much means these explanations are fabricated. Second lie Oats said he attacked Kickstart so it wouldn't be weird for him to suddenly town read someone he's kinda scumread before. Except that is exactly what he did D3: even though he voted for him D2, he completely ignored him D3, and the only post mentioning him can be read as a townread: On June 19 2015 11:37 Oatsmaster wrote: Kickstart is just scumreading me to be a dick right now lol. Conclusion Oats is mafia. | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
I would vote that if I was thinking that Oats is cop but not really sure. As I think Oats is mafia, I think no lynch is a bad idea. OK with: - Trfel's setup analysis - Trfel's Oats' filter analysis - Oats lies My vote is on Oats. ##Vote Oatsmaster | ||
|
Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
2nd day. I thought it was a bus because it would've be suspicious for people to lynch kickstart when sulph was really obvious mafia. I don't think mafia tried to lynch Kickstart over sulph. Knowing Kickstart's alignment then makes it easier to find the mafia team. Also he wasn't on the chopping block or shooting block so imo it was a great check. I didn't do jack with this in terms of analysing other dudes though. Life is tough 3rd day, At this point, I'm running outta checks. It's still not lylo though so I'm not checking damdred, there are better check and I have explained why. I set a trap for damdred earlier in the day though. I'm pretty sure Scott hasn't gotten lynched at that point so I was setting a trap just to confirm him for people who have no idea. | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
- Oats' weird relation with Kickstart: hard defended him most of D2, ignored him D3, attacked, then greenchecked him D4. - The previous cases may be still valid. Will have to check. - His last few posts tried to get people to believe Oats is a cop and no lynch. It's consistent with him being Oats' partner. In particular this post: On June 22 2015 13:06 Kickstart wrote: If Oats fakeclaimed I will just never play with him again sigh. What ??? If Oats fakeclaims it means he's mafia so it's a good play ... This post feels so bad to me. This comment seems to do two mafia things to me: - create even more of a thread sentiment that Oats is mafia - if he's wrong and Oats is mafia, Kickstart has an excuse: "I didn't really believe him, look I said I wasn't going to play with him again if he fakeclaims ..." In short, this post in addition to the few one just before seems to me like a good way to not explain his stances and look alright whatever the outcome is. @Kickstart can you explain this sentence ? On June 22 2015 13:06 Kickstart wrote: If Oats fakeclaimed I will just never play with him again sigh. | ||
| ||
