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sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 02:02 GMT
#705
EBWOP
the case on qwerty, if any, could be more accurately described as 2good2btown I guess, given that Vivax flipped town
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 02:06 GMT
#706
@Damdred
What do you think about what I've said about qwerty since the flip? Do you agree with it?
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 02:56 GMT
#708
On May 20 2015 11:42 Oatsmaster wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 20 2015 11:00 sciberbia wrote:
On May 20 2015 10:41 Oatsmaster wrote:
qwertys switch looks really bad, 2bad2bscum is not a thing.


This isn't even a 2bad2bscum thing. Changing your vote at the last second to a different candidate isn't a bad play, if you really think there is new information that makes the person you were previously voting more likely to be town.

And Vivax turned out to be town. So the case on qwerty, if any, is really 2good2bscum. It boils down to:

Do you think it is possible that he really had a change of heart on Vivax and decided Vivax looked more townie? (I do)
Do you think it is possible that he really thought a voteswitch was possible? (I do)

Do you think that he was trying to make himself look better post-flip by waffling around at the last second? (I don't)

The only way you can answer yes to this last question is if you think qwerty is a moron. I could have told you 1000 times out of 1000 that he would get flak for that switch. And at least 3 people have already called him out on it.

I know I'm defending qwerty pretty hard but I just have a really gut feel that he is town. I remember this game from forever ago, Newbie Mini XV, in which funnily enough, Vivax self-voted at the end of day 2, and multiple townies suddenly thought he was town, but figured there wasn't time for a vote switch. I feel like I have seen other cases like this as well.

Well no, some people were bringing up the point that scum wont so obviously switch off a mislynch. I think they would.

And it is definitely to make himself look better. There is literally no other reason, as town or mafia to switch so late without other people doing it.



Is it not possible that he was trying to get Obi lynched? If he gets like 2 or 3 more people to switch then Obi gets lynched instead of Vivax. There were like 5 minutes left - it's like not completely impossible. Personally I was pretty borderline between the two. I could maybe have been persuaded to switch if Vivax had made a more well thought-out reads post.

If qwerty was just doing it to make himself look better I would say he has to be mafia 100%. But I don't see why he can't really have been trying to get Obi lynched. A bit naive/optimistic of him maybe, but I find it plausible.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 04:51 GMT
#713
@Damdred
Here is the biggest reason I did not want to lynch stutters yesterday.

On May 19 2015 01:00 Stutters695 wrote:
I'm still waffling over GBs list post. There are glaring inconsistencies I'm surprised no one has noticed, but it just feels town. I need to think on that. His other posting especially is what keeps me from scumming him.


This seems really townie to me. In the following analysis, the question of whether there actually were inconsistencies in GB's post is irrelevant. What matters is that, regardless of his alignment, I think it is safe to assume that Stutters really did find things in GB's post that he considered to be inconsistencies. If you are going to make this statement as scum, you would have to be crazy not to have some inconsistencies in mind that you could bring up if GB (or anyone else) calls you out on this.

Now if I am scum, and I see glaring inconsistencies in someone's post that nobody has brought up, I am very likely to point them out in order to make myself look smart. Additionally, I would relish the chance to throw dirt on a townie (assuming GB is town). I would probably not keep them to myself, and say that despite the inconsistencies, I just have a gut town feel on the person's posts. It's just a really weird thing for a scum to do.

What do you think of this? Other people feel free to comment but I mostly want Damdred's opinion.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 05:02 GMT
#715
On May 20 2015 13:54 Oatsmaster wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 20 2015 11:56 sciberbia wrote:
On May 20 2015 11:42 Oatsmaster wrote:
On May 20 2015 11:00 sciberbia wrote:
On May 20 2015 10:41 Oatsmaster wrote:
qwertys switch looks really bad, 2bad2bscum is not a thing.


This isn't even a 2bad2bscum thing. Changing your vote at the last second to a different candidate isn't a bad play, if you really think there is new information that makes the person you were previously voting more likely to be town.

And Vivax turned out to be town. So the case on qwerty, if any, is really 2good2bscum. It boils down to:

Do you think it is possible that he really had a change of heart on Vivax and decided Vivax looked more townie? (I do)
Do you think it is possible that he really thought a voteswitch was possible? (I do)

Do you think that he was trying to make himself look better post-flip by waffling around at the last second? (I don't)

The only way you can answer yes to this last question is if you think qwerty is a moron. I could have told you 1000 times out of 1000 that he would get flak for that switch. And at least 3 people have already called him out on it.

I know I'm defending qwerty pretty hard but I just have a really gut feel that he is town. I remember this game from forever ago, Newbie Mini XV, in which funnily enough, Vivax self-voted at the end of day 2, and multiple townies suddenly thought he was town, but figured there wasn't time for a vote switch. I feel like I have seen other cases like this as well.

Well no, some people were bringing up the point that scum wont so obviously switch off a mislynch. I think they would.

And it is definitely to make himself look better. There is literally no other reason, as town or mafia to switch so late without other people doing it.



Is it not possible that he was trying to get Obi lynched? If he gets like 2 or 3 more people to switch then Obi gets lynched instead of Vivax. There were like 5 minutes left - it's like not completely impossible. Personally I was pretty borderline between the two. I could maybe have been persuaded to switch if Vivax had made a more well thought-out reads post.

If qwerty was just doing it to make himself look better I would say he has to be mafia 100%. But I don't see why he can't really have been trying to get Obi lynched. A bit naive/optimistic of him maybe, but I find it plausible.

I dont think so, qwerty never explained why vivax was suddenly town, or obi was suddenly scum.
It really looked a lot to me like qwerty didnt really care whether vivax or obi was lynched and just switched off because he wanted to look good.


Well it's possible that you are right and I am wrong.
We will just have to disagree on this I guess because that's not the feeling I get.

Here is qwerty's explanation as to why vivax was suddenly town to him. Idk if you missed it
+ Show Spoiler [qwerty] +

On May 20 2015 05:08 Qwerty! wrote:
he came back and provided a reads post that i felt was mostly sensible, and i agreed with his onegu read in particular

one of the reasons i voted for vivax was i saw scrib's post that vivax wasnt here while he said he would be here... but vivax posting nullified that argument

the similarities to assassination were very noticeable as well



One last thing and then I'll try to stop talking about qwerty. I feel like he could have easily stopped posting after this post 40 minutes to the deadline and looked fine:
+ Show Spoiler [voting obi] +

On May 20 2015 04:19 Qwerty! wrote:
It seems that I'm only reading at the rate that you guys are posting... this isn't working.

are we actually killing vivax? would much rather kill obi

##vote ObiWanShinobi



He voted obi, reasonably justified in doing so since he previously explained why he did not want to lynch vivax. Vivax was still set to be lynched, and even more votes started coming in on Vivax. If qwerty is mafia, he already knows vivax will flip town, so he can just leave his vote on Obi and come out looking 'good' after the flip. Adding his vote as like the 9th vote to Vivax and the swapping back to Obi at the last second just seems like such an unnecessary ploy.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 05:17 GMT
#717
@Onegu
Who do you think is mafia? Who do you think we should be considering lynching tomorrow?
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 06:25 GMT
#721
@Qwerty
1) Let's suppose Stutters, Onegu, and Obi are all town. I ask because I don't think this is out of the question: who would you suggest we look into next?

2) Quick thoughts on Palmar's alignment?

3) Can you just quote the part of my case on Obi that you thought was most convincing? I'm just kinda curious and it might help me focus in on what really demonstrates Obi is mafia (if he is in fact mafia).
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 06:31 GMT
#724
@Onegu
Here is where he draws the idea that you don't like policy lynches
On May 20 2015 15:02 Qwerty! wrote:
I know that he hates inactives, shown by this post from Student Mafia VIII.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 07:37 GMT
#728
Oh damn. I just realized whose smurf Qwerty might be. And if he is who I think he is, he has a very strong reputation as a scum player and I might have to seriously worry about him being scum after all.

Qwerty what do?
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 08:08 GMT
#730
OK I'm just going to throw this out there.

On May 19 2015 23:22 Palmar wrote:
Why is holyflare being so inactive btw?

The only reasonable explanation I can see for this post is that Palmar knows or strongly suspects that qwerty = holyflare.

@Palmar
Please confirm or deny this when you wake up.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 08:15 GMT
#733
Ask you what? Do you know whose smurf qwerty is?
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 08:24 GMT
#736
On May 20 2015 17:16 GlowingBear wrote:
Hry!!!!!!!

Look at the time!!!

5 am!

Best tkme to vigi shoot Damdred

Brb ok kthxbai

@GB
I assume you're just messing around, but if you really are a vig, I think I would much prefer you shooting Obi to Damdred. I'm still rereading but yea.

Anyway don't make a decision while you're drunk. How about you set an alarm for an hour before the deadline and get some sleep GB?
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 08:31 GMT
#739
I really am at a loss for what to think about ShoCkeyy.

On May 20 2015 01:06 ShoCkeyy wrote:
And I'm positive I'm already a mafia lynch tonight even if I make it pass the lynch. I'm just trying to get out as much info on the mafia players of the game while I can.


By "mafia lynch" I'm pretty sure he means night target kill. You'd have to be so deluded as a town shoCkeyy to think you will get night killed here. Like, I would be shocked if he is night-killed by mafia no pun intended.

Is he really this deluded? Or is he scum hardcore trolling us?

@ShoCkeyy
Where you at? You said you'd be on later and I have stuff to discuss with you.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 10:53 GMT
#743
On May 20 2015 19:36 Palmar wrote:
Sciberbia is still mafia btw, but remember we never lynch him and lose game.

Please confirm or deny what I said about you thinking that qwerty = holyflare.

Also, you really owe a look to everything I wrote about Obi. I really want your opinion on it, especially the bit about him saying damdred 'plausibly could be' town, and then justifying leaving his troll vote on Damdred anyway.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 10:55 GMT
#744
This post will be a lot of interesting observations and no real conclusions. I'm hoping someone else can tell me what to make of these observations.


The start of the Vivax wagon is really bizarre. There are 0 votes on Vivax and the lynch seems to be coming down to Shockey vs Obi. Then, Palmar makes a case on Vivax, and shortly thereafter, 4 votes drop on Vivax within the span of 2 minutes of each other: Damdred --> Stutters --> Palmar --> Obi

GB makes a good point that Damdred's vote is questionable. Idk if Damdred is scum, because there were serveral things in his filter I thought were townie, but the vote is definitely a bit odd. He had scumreads on shockey, zealos, and obi which he never backed down from, yet he just kinda organizes this voteswitch onto vivax out of nowhere.

Stutters, having not said jack shit about Vivax all day, sheeps Palmar's case.

Palmar then drops his vote at Damdred's prompting. So, the previous leading candidate was Obi/Shockey. Palmar never even looks at my case on Obi or mentions Obi at all. He also does not seem concerned that Damdred, his other top scumread, is the one organizing the switch onto Vivax. He also does not seem concerned that Damdred is voting Vivax out of nowhere. Kinda sketchy. Like I'm not expecting Palmar to unvote Vivax just because Damdred voted him. But I would have expected Palmar to least raise eyebrows at Damdred's behavior. Instead, he just seems happy to have another disciple for his Vivax case.

Lastly, Obi who is clearly trying very hard not to get lynched and paying close attention to the vote count, has left his vote on the Shockey counterwagon to himself until he is assured that the Vivax counterwagon is strong enough. Then he switches his vote.


I still kinda think Obi is mafia. Don't really know about Damdred/Palmar/Stutters, as I have reasons to think each of them are town. I think everyone should go back and look at how the Vivax wagon formed though. It just seems really weird to me and makes me think there could have been multiple mafia on it.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 11:03 GMT
#745
I'm exhausted and going to bed soon.

Palmar feel free to read some of my posts and reply with something interesting before I go to sleep
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 11:21 GMT
#746
Also Palmar this whole not reading my posts and callling me mafia thing is getting really old. I really doubt you ever read my case on Obi, and if you had maybe we would have lynched mafia yesterday. Like what the hell is that? If you are going to call me mafia, at least first read the things of most significance that I'm bringing to the thread. Don't just tell everyone I'm mafia because you're bitter about some game you lost 6 months ago and found 2 posts in early D1 you didn't like. It's lazy at best and scummy at worst.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 12:02 GMT
#748
Palmar: Hey everyone scib is mafia
Scib: Guys I think we should lynch Obi
Palmar: We are lynching vivax. He is mafia every time
Scib: OK fine
*flips town*
Scib: Hey Palmar maybe you should read my posts on Obi
Palmar: No screw you i don't need to
Palmar: And you are still mafia scib

Do you not see where I am coming from here?
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 19:11 GMT
#765
Don't have much time to post today.

Idk maybe I'm just wildly wrong on qwerty but I get a completley different feeling than Obi/Damdred/Oats do from his vote switch. Would be interested to get Palmar's opinion here because I would expect him to agree with me. But if Palmar would read my posts that would just make the game too easy

@Damdred
Stutters is extremely like detatched from the game (not taking any risks like you said) and I agree it's a bit concerning. I will look at the stuff on his meta but don't have time right now. What do you think of the point I brought up yesterday in his favor?

Also, my feeling during rereading was pretty good in favor of Onegu and Zealos being town.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 20 2015 19:30 GMT
#771
For the record I barely even know who HF is but I just know he has a good scum reputation.
But OK assuming you're not actually HF and being a lying jerk, I'll go back to my town read on you ^^
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