|
On May 27 2015 23:45 Breshke wrote:
This is gonna sound dumb but if boxerfred is mafia then mafia has exactly one goon one godfather and one RB cos of how he misunderstood the setup. Makes me think he is town but it's a dumb reason
I thought that each mentioned role is included in the game once. I have to admit that I obviously did not read this + Show Spoiler +This game uses a semi-open setup for 13 players; that is, all the possible roles are given but the number of each is not known. Not all of the roles will necessarily be present.
If I understand your reason correctly, you're one hell of a townie.
|
I have my theory typed out and copied already, am not really willing to post it though.
|
It can also be that I understand him incorrectly. Before I state my theory, Breshke, I'd like you to explain your reasoning behind that quoted sentence.
|
On May 28 2015 00:17 Barakos wrote:
That's pretty simple... if boxer worked under the assuption that all roles were in game and he is mafia, mafia would have to have all three roles, or else he would have recognized his mistake earlier.
He did only recognize this in thread, so either mafia has all three roles, or boxer is town.
okay I'm stupid. Didn't think of that, I'm thinking too complicated.
Here's my original theory which I didn't want to type out (at least before EoN because it's a role call)
+ Show Spoiler +
"if boxerfred is mafia then mafia has exactly one goon one godfather and one RB cos of how he misunderstood the setup. Makes me think he is town but it's a dumb reason"
Breshke says that if I am mafia, then mafia has one of each role. That means that he clearly knows about two out of three roles, or he couldn't say so. Given that the scum RB flipped red on day 1, there are two more roles in his theory: godfather and goon. So how can Breshke know about someone's alignment that sure? Only if he'd be cop and copchecked either a scum member or a person that returned town but he has a strong scum read on.
I guess it wasn't the best theory but I was really excited about it 
|
I'm not at all role hunting, Breshke was making a huge tell in my eyes. If you think through my theory without taking into consideration that I didn't know about the role distribution, you'll understand my logic. It jumped to my eyes, making me push the most clear town call I did thus far in the game.
It's rather fun how an inactive guy calls my attempts to clear up the game "rolehunting" while lurking half the time only.
|
On May 28 2015 00:28 batsnacks wrote:
Barakos did you just claim cop lol?
See, Barakos? assuming that this wasn't a troll post from bats, he obviously thinks that your post is a tell, too. But I'm the evil scummy rolehunter? Bold call.
|
Well I won't be around EoN and won't be around for today, so seeya tomorrow.
|
I'm here now, skimmed the last ~10 pages and am going to answer to pretty much everything. First things that my gut wants me to throw out: I believe the cop claim and I believe the roleblock claim, mainly because Barakos said he was indeed blocked. Of course that could be a mafia coup but I don't feel like it. Sorry to disappoint on the potential CC - I'm not a mason. I am a VT.
BRB, gotta read and quote and post now.
|
Since people are eagier to put me on a scum list, please fire questions at me.
|
Okay, first thought: I'm not down to believing the RB claim to a 100%. While it makes sense, I think that Barakos said..
On May 28 2015 07:57 Barakos wrote:
Just saw it now... I was roleblocked. Didn't see the pm at first.
..before plotspots claimed to be RB. Easy choice to take if there's a cop claim drawing most of the attention to himself and/or the guys he checked.
|
On May 28 2015 23:09 Tictock wrote:
I think I got a good enough answer out of Plots to poke holes in his claim to be Town RB.
I'm a little biased here though, so I encourage Town to see if they think plots claim holds.
I believe he is Mafia RB trying to fakeclaim Town RB.
RB,RB, Goon vs Cop & Masons sounds fairly balanced, no?
If that was to be true (which I don't think though), it would be highly unlikely that I was maf since I needed a long time to understand a role can be in twice. That brings me down to another question: are necessary two masons in by setup? Reading the setup post, I don't think so. So we potentially read batsnacks 100% green while he might just have the sickest excuses of all, being the uncontested mason #2 claim.
|
On May 28 2015 08:00 Sulfurus wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2015 07:04 batsnacks wrote:
Alright. I'm the cop. Barakos and 27nb are town. We're lynching sulfur today.
##vote sulfurus Where's your accusation? You didn't even check me.
Wait, batsnacks is the cop claim, I mistook that last post. I meant ticktoc. However, that initial post implies that he checked sulfurus so everything's pretty clear?
|
On May 28 2015 08:25 sicklucker wrote:
Na definately claim. Makes it more believable now and its not like its a useful role. Were ahead we dont have to risk being behind.
The longer you dont claim the easier it is for mafia to cc you.
Good call. It's 7-2, so this is a great round for role claims.
|
On May 29 2015 01:34 boxerfred wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2015 08:00 Sulfurus wrote:On May 28 2015 07:04 batsnacks wrote:
Alright. I'm the cop. Barakos and 27nb are town. We're lynching sulfur today.
##vote sulfurus Where's your accusation? You didn't even check me. Wait, batsnacks is the cop claim, I mistook that last post. I meant ticktoc. However, that initial post implies that he checked sulfurus so everything's pretty clear?
On May 28 2015 09:24 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2015 09:14 27ninjabunnies wrote:On May 28 2015 07:04 batsnacks wrote:
Alright. I'm the cop. Barakos and 27nb are town. We're lynching sulfur today.
##vote sulfurus BAM BITCHES! Told you I was town Yeah I wish you had been townie enough that I could have checked someone else e.g. sulfur. >.>
Obviously, not everything is clear. That puts a lot of pressure off of Sulfurus. I don't like that move, if you're claiming cop you should put pressure on by clear checks. However, a mislynch today plus a kill at night would make it 5-2, making cop claims way harder to do.
|
On May 28 2015 10:13 disformation wrote:
Okay folks. Let me solve this stuff...
...
boxerfred: I remember you getting pretty angry when I called out your bad D1 voting behaviour. Hit a nerve?
]
You pointed that out being a "Critical question", so let me answer: hell yes! You went at me pretty hard on D1 already and I defended myself without trying to get rid of any attention. I tried to simply stand there, let you fire at me and reply with "Well bro, I'm not a scum member. Since I (at this point) am not too sure about others, I'll just try to defend without damaging anyone else". In contrary to you: you freely admitted that you'd rather have a coinflip vote than the unlikely chance of getting bussed.
When I decided to pressure you, I basically wanted to poke you to see if you'd change something once you're under pressure yourself. Well you did: your D2 pattern was lurky as fuck, and look what you do this day, now that town's chances are better than ever: short posts. Besides one (solid and well written) post, all you do is oneliners and following other guy's theories, without putting yourself too much in the line of fire. You accomplished to never be in danger of being voted since D1.
Still hold you for town however. Tried really hard to find something besides your posting pattern that would justify a push on you, however I cannot.
|
On May 28 2015 13:33 27ninjabunnies wrote:
The one time I can interact with people, no one is around. lame.
Shame. It's fun how the D2 attention on 27nb changed to, at first, ticktoc and then me. I don't like that.
|
On May 29 2015 01:48 boxerfred wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2015 13:33 27ninjabunnies wrote:
The one time I can interact with people, no one is around. lame. Shame. It's fun how the D2 attention on 27nb changed to, at first, ticktoc and then me. I don't like that.
Especially with this following:
On May 28 2015 13:55 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Tops lynches
PRP
Dis
Sulf/SL if the other two arent mafia.
Since I don't like Dis for pushing me over and over again, I'd really like to hear her thoughts on him.
|
On May 28 2015 14:23 plotspot wrote:
I am just wondering why you killed Breshke? Was he killed because he asked me questions about the RB?
He might've been very well killed due to me speculating about his role. I think that speaks for me not being scum by the way: I clearly pointed out that my theory on him was totally wrong (someone else pointed that out even before me). Why would the scum team, assumed I'm a part of it, still go for Breshke?
|
On May 28 2015 14:38 plotspot wrote:Your scum partner made a big mistake here Show nested quote +On May 28 2015 09:48 Sulfurus wrote:
@Batsnacks How do you know Bunnies is not the GF? Can you see what's missing in this question?
I like your explanation on that a lot. Makes me lean Sulf towards scum.
|
On May 28 2015 15:13 Tictock wrote:Suls filter is short, and there's only been 2 votes. Time to do some analysis/defending! Sul opens with his response to SL's QT stuff and 27nb's, immediately pushes Breshke for his pressure on SL. + Show Spoiler +On May 22 2015 10:24 Sulfurus wrote:
@sicklucker is it not normal for the mafia QT to be open during pregame b/c if it is you shouldn't have made that dumbtell
also ##Vote: Breshke On May 22 2015 11:34 Sulfurus wrote:
@NinjaBunnies the most important point in this game so far is when Breshke 1st stared pushing on Sicklucker since the conflict between the two has defined the entire game.
Speaking of that, Breshke is my top scum since he continuously pushes against Sicklucker with very bad reasoning (#159 he complains that he has disappeared and hasn't thought critically only 3 hours into the game)
I also scum read Murray due to his weak and untrue accusation against Dis in post #191 which made me think Sick is town since he tried Bandwagoning on him but he has since rescinded his vote. Calls out SL for contradicting himself a little + Show Spoiler +On May 22 2015 11:39 Sulfurus wrote:
@sicklucker I think you are executing this rxn test very poorly since you just congratulated me on having "the best post in the thread" which you probably wouldn't do to some1 you have a red on. Swaps vote from Bre to BM. Gives good reasons why he is swapping. + Show Spoiler +On May 22 2015 13:07 Sulfurus wrote:
Unvote Breshke
##Vote: Bill Murray
I am actually astonished at how Murray can make so many posts with out providing anything of value on top of the fact that he has pushed every one of his agenda's in a scummy manner.
In posts 231 - 235 Breshke defends himself and Plotspot in a towny way and reading back Sicklucker is less towny than I thought so Breshke is no longer my top mafia. Gives more of a townread on Bre, then unvotes BM. His reasons here seem fairly poor + Show Spoiler +On May 23 2015 07:19 Sulfurus wrote:Breshke is definitely more town than I thought, he defended plotspot (I don't care how he did it just that he did at all) and I've realized that his tunnel on SL is pro-town since he got he put pressure on someone who is a hard read. Show nested quote +On May 22 2015 10:25 Bill Murray wrote:
Disinformation the game so far has been people reacting to a post batsnacks has , premade,
I completely misunderstood what this post meant I thought it was BM saying the Dis hadn't done anything this game. That combined with what SL said about him being mislynch bait means that I'll rescind my vote off of him. ##Unvote Says he is unsure why 27nb is defending him, gives a super weak tonwread on me then claims Bara as top town. In fact he likes Bara's points about Bats opening so much he votes Bats. + Show Spoiler +On May 24 2015 06:04 Sulfurus wrote:I admit even I am confused as to why NinjaBunnies is defending me so hard; right now the only vote on her is Tictock (someone who I have had a townread on longer then anyone else) but she is definitely someone who needs to be looked at later. For me the the person with the most useful reads and my top town is Barakos; he was the one who helped me townread Breshke and scumread Disformation with this post, he has shown a healthy suspicion of NinjaBunnies, and he influenced me to un-vote BM, along with SL, with his coinflip argument (for the record I still think SL is town). My favorite Barakos post so far is this one right here especially the Batsnacks part which shows how scummy he truly is (Bat's overly defensive reactions in posts 538 & 539 don't help his case either) so while he won't get lynched today I'll definitely be pushing for his death tomorrow. ##Vote: Batsnacks Further explains about his vote on Bats + Show Spoiler +On May 24 2015 06:26 Sulfurus wrote:
@Tictock I think the Bats post you quoted is just straight up wrong. He literally cherry picked quotes to paint himself as a productive member of town when in reality it was people like Breshke and yourself who got the conversation started.
And the reason I like Berakos's post so much is that it showed that Bat really didn't care about making reads off of his I-ching post like he said he would. On May 24 2015 06:41 Sulfurus wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2015 20:04 batsnacks wrote:
Even though everyone in the thread is posting bs, and not following up on their bs, you have chosen to single out my bs out of all the other bs. How can you have a problem with the bs I posted at the start of the game and NOT have a problem with the bs other people were posting at the start of the game? Especially when my bs generated more discussion than anyone else's bs.
Show nested quote +On May 23 2015 20:04 batsnacks wrote:
Especially when my bs generated more discussion than anyone else's bs.
This is pretty much a textbook example of a humblebrag he is pretending to self-deprecate his contributions when in reality he is saying his actions are towny. Gives thoughts about Vig shooting SL being better than cop checking + Show Spoiler +On May 24 2015 14:46 Sulfurus wrote:
I predict that if cop receives a town check on SL people will accuse him of being GF/SK and lynch him anyway, so cop should not check him.
A vigi shot on him is fine since the only way town doesn't kill him is if he claims a role. Clarifies his stance on BM to Dis, he's saying BM is mislynch bait here... Also defends SL. + Show Spoiler +On May 25 2015 14:14 Sulfurus wrote:Show nested quote +On May 24 2015 19:57 disformation wrote:Sulfurus: 1) On May 24 2015 06:04 Sulfurus wrote:For me the the person with the most useful reads and my top town is Barakos; he was the one who helped me townread Breshke and scumread Disformation with this post, he has shown a healthy suspicion of NinjaBunnies, and he influenced me to un-vote BM, along with SL, with his coinflip argument (for the record I still think SL is town).] In the bolded post Barakos talks about sicklucker not me. Whoops I believe that should be a link to post 264Show nested quote +2) On May 24 2015 15:04 Sulfurus wrote:
@Breshke I'll reread one more time and then I'll answer. I'd like him to follow up on this. 3) He also totally ignored my case/push on him. Maybe because I was the only one seeing something in this? Don't get me wrong, he has a bunch of stuff I like. But I'd def. like to see a more of this guy, before I can give him a solid town read. IIRC your 'case' against me is that I called Bill Murray 'mislynch bait' which came off as TMI to you. TBH I don't actually know if Bill is town or not but I thought that term sounded better then 'lynch bait' since bait is usually a kind of trap you don't want to get caught in (think fishing) but we want to lynch mafia not avoid it (hopefully that makes sense). As for Sicklucker I feel he has been so busy defending himself that he hasn't been able to give any useful reads and Rels gave a very good accusation of him here so I don't think I will bother defending and I may even vote on him if it comes down to it. @Bill Murray I don't quite understand why you rescinded your vote off of SL. Can you please explain? Gives us a PoE list and votes SL + Show Spoiler +On May 26 2015 13:29 Sulfurus wrote:
As of this moment my lynches are
Sicklucker
Batsnacks
27NinjaBunnies
Bill Murray
BoxerFred
in that order
I admit it's kinda weird that 3 of those names voted for confirmed mafia but considering how Scott was playing the idea of a bus isn't too far-fetched.
##Vote: Sicklucker Responds to a couple of questions from me, reminds me of his stance on Bats and disagrees with my stance on plots + Show Spoiler +On May 26 2015 13:52 Sulfurus wrote:@TicTock I actually already talked about Bats yesterday. It's mostly based off of what Barakos said and I think his points still stand. On May 26 2015 18:15 Sulfurus wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2015 14:08 Tictock wrote:
Oh yea last thought @ Sul
I do like your PoE list besides having BS 2nd. Right now I'm thinking
SL
27nb
BM
plots
BF
Plots and BF are pretty much interchangeable in that list right now though.
I town read Plots for the simple reason that he scumread Rels after he died. Like what incentive does he have to do that as mafia? There is no mislynch he can push there and I don't think he realized I would town read him for that. Even if that was the purpose he would have tried to 'get credit' for it at some point instead of letting people forget about that read. In general Plot's demeanor this game has been to try get information into the hands of town instead of trying to push any kind of malicious agenda. Pressures Bats to explain his switch to BM (i'd like to know this as well) + Show Spoiler +On May 27 2015 14:04 Sulfurus wrote:
@Batsnacks please go in depth on why you changed your vote to Bill Murray. Agrees BF is speculating too much about roles, but says he is likely town. + Show Spoiler +On May 28 2015 06:38 Sulfurus wrote:
I agree that BoxerFred should stop talking about roles since it only helps mafia but all his specualtion seems really genuine and I think if he was mafia he would save that stuff for their QT.
Also I think he is extremely towny for going against the grain and voting Bunnies yesterday. Thinks it's likely bunnies is trying to pocket him + Show Spoiler +On May 28 2015 06:49 Sulfurus wrote:
Also I agree with the logic that Bunnies was trying to pocket me because I am new only to change her read when she realized that wouldn't work. There's also his posts asking Bats why he is suddenly the #1 target and his pointing out that Bunnies could be potential GF, these were so recent I'm not bothering quoting. The Votes: Day 1 Sul left his vote on Bats. It's a throwaway vote but it is in line with his reads all game. Day 2 Again left his vote on SL. Sul's votes dont look great, but he's not around often to change his vote and he gives decent reasoning why he is voting as he does. His vote on SL is weak, but he never gave much indication he'd be willing to vote either bunnies or BM so it makes sense. To me the biggest point here is Sul calling out BM as mislynch bait, scum would not point out someone as a potential mislynch bait. I'm also not seeing anything here that indicates scum behavior. Given all this, you guys had better give some damed good reasons why Sul is scum. To me 27nb is still the clear target as nothing has actually cleared her of any of the reasons she was being lynched D2. Green check when there is a possibility of GF is not enough.
This huge post in the meantime is very strong in defense for Sulf. That makes me go from 99% town to 100% town towards the mason here. Also, it makes me lean Sulf more in a town way and not want me to vote him.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
