EPTYeah and that's where you're wrong. You can guess and those counts might support your guess but you cannot be sure. So your point loses a lot of credibility in my eyes.
Newbie Student Mafia X - Page 3
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
Yeah and that's where you're wrong. You can guess and those counts might support your guess but you cannot be sure. So your point loses a lot of credibility in my eyes. | ||
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boxerfred
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On May 25 2015 06:27 disformation wrote: No. I am 100% sure that I am town. I have a PM that says so. I have no clue what the PM the other guy got says, so I am a lot less sure about him. So I will make this play, every day, every game. As either alignment, which means that this doesn't give you any indication at all if I am mafia or town. Not getting what you are trying to say. Of course I can't be 100% sure that no one is around. I don't have super vision to magically see who is lurking. Look at the thread at the time, it feels fucking deserted. No point in throwing out a case at that time. I too am 100% sure that I am town. I too have a PM that says so. Saying "I am 100% sure that I am town" to state a reason for a play is the least believable thing one could ever say. And you clearly know this, thus you're accounting that people take that seriously and actually believe you. I like Rels' call on you being SK potentially. I really don't want to get on the train that votes you since I think it's like the worst thing to do if someone pushes you. But at this point, I feel like I don't have a choice. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
I'm trying to say that you cannot know something for sure and the measure you take to prove your point is insufficient, proving your argument as not valid. | ||
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boxerfred
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On May 25 2015 06:43 disformation wrote: If you have the choice to: a) lynch yourself b) lynch somebody else What are you going to do each single time? Regardless of alignment. Okay, what should I have done in your opinion? Throwing out a case and see if it sticks? Even if I am not around? Who is that going to help? We are going to OMGUS at each other all of Day2. I'm calling it.  You [i]say that you only have such choices. There wasn't really someone else on the edge of voting on you so it was not "me or the afk guy". So I read your vote as a "okay safe call". You could've done quite much, or even nothing. Don't ask me on that, I don't know your alignment or your role, so I think you're doing what's best for your role. Testing everyone and blaming everyone and following different guys in their argumentation seems SK like to me. Or, tryhard townie. However, I'm moving away from the "you're scum" view. I don't think you're scum. [/s] | ||
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boxerfred
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boxerfred
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boxerfred
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On May 25 2015 07:20 plotspot wrote: yeah I do not think he is scum, I was just finished with p30 (and consequently D1) and I was pretty sure I had Rels as scum. There are 4 other players I am not sure of their alignment but... let me see... for Tictock, boxerfred, disformation, Bill Murray, Breshke and SL, I was sure they are town. But now also 9 pages to go now until I'm REALLY up-to-date. If I see that SL is a scum with my latest reads, you can be sure I will vote him. besides disinformation, I'm with you. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On May 25 2015 16:39 Tictock wrote: BF is definitely town from his push EoN on Dis. I actually like the exchange between the two that happens. @BF I totally get where you are coming from on this, and it's not a bad read. However if this is still an important point to you I'd suggest you breifly skim Dis's filter in the last newbie game here. He uses the simlies AND gets scum read for it in that game as well. However he was Town Doc that game. The smiles are simply a part of his writing style are are completely NAI (Not Alignment Indicative). Okay I can see that. Also, his usage of smileys really seems to not be based on the intention of a post so I take that as granted. I moved away from the scum lean already anyways but I don't think I'll drop the SK lean. I have to reread the sicklucker things, it's really confusing (since I can only quickscan the thread today until like 7-8 hours from now on). As I understood it, people want to start a train on either sicklucker or bunnies. Having such a clear train for two different persons, started by two different persons, I'd say that the cop actually hit a scum member this night and wants to get that guy lynched without indicating who he himself is. Is that a far fetched theory or could that be the truth? | ||
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boxerfred
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boxerfred
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Skimming through disinfo's posts, I don't really see a point from which I would start a train on him. I might be wrong with my lean on him. However, I'd like to clearly know what he thinks about pretty much everyone - especially where he would locate scum members and SK. As I can see from celestial's post, he's currently all about jumping trains, matching the pattern of jumping the scott train before: first, he goes for sicklucker, being the 3rd vote at this point (I did not compare timestamps, so it might be the second vote, note that please!). Then, he changes his vote, being the 4th to jump bunnies. That is not really matching his gameplay of putting pressure on people until a train is started on them. For reference, final vote count of day 1: On May 24 2015 07:04 cakepie wrote: ～ Final Vote Count ～ scott31337 (6) : Rels, disformation (3) : Barakos, plotspot (1) : Bill Murray, 27ninjabunnies (1) : batsnacks (1) : Bill Murray (0) : boxerfred (0) : Breshke (0) : sicklucker (0) : Sulfurus (0) : Not voting (1) : scott31337 Currently, scott31337 is set to be lynched! + Show Spoiler [Details] +
Going for Sulfuros first, then jumping a train that will most likely kill the guy, thus saving his vote. I'd like to point out that initially, batsnacks and tictoc voted the same on scott rather early, which strengthens my mason theory, putting Breshke on a neutral lean for me. However, both batsnacks and Breshke have a town read for me if I'm right. Coming to a conclusion of my theories, I'd say we have to search for scum members among sulfurus, bill murray and maybe sicklucker (mentioning him since I can see why he's being blamed but I think his posts make sense (if I understand them correctly) and bunnies (for named reasons). I'd locate the SK at disinfo and maybe SL. It's all too wonky at this point. I delayed my vote for a long time last day already, but this time, I'm putting my vote on sicklucker rather early. He's jumping people rather often, voting batsnacks, BM and then bunnies, following batsnacks who he voted upon before. That's three guys, with him, four. Four in a span of a few hours? I take that as a vote that is cast knowing the alignment of at least one of the three guys he voted upon. Given that he unvoted two times, it might very well be that he's a scum member knowing about the identity of a fellow scum member. Which would, following my mason theory, point to bill murray being scum. Not sure how bullet proof that theory is, please fire at it to see how long it holds. ##vote sicklucker | ||
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boxerfred
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boxerfred
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boxerfred
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boxerfred
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BF when you are around I want to talk to you about this bolded paragraph. Why do you think SL changing his votes that much means he msut know one of the peopels allighnments that he voted? Why do you think it is scummy/towny about him changing his vote that much. I think that one goal of the mafia is to confuse people the best they can, keeping everyone unsure about the aligment of others. Since they are the ones that do not care as much for exact roles, they don't really care who to vote on on day 1. I'm playing advocatus diaboli now because right now, I'm thinking "Wait, but poking as many people as possible is a good thing since it makes them talk about who they are". However, this is not what SL did. While there are like 12 people or so in this game, he limited his seemingly random votes to three people. I can see a fake vote there: "I'll vote on my ally so I can bring that up in later days". I don't think that this theory is enough to clearly pin sicklucker into a scum role. But his overall posts are more often than not oneliners, trolly, and he's really switching his commitment very often. Disinfo inspired me to analyze the posting pattern (because he analyzed my own posting pattern day 0) and SL really does not commit to longer posts that he can be nailed upon. Why is that? I think the best way to convince people that you actually have a town alignment is to explain your thoughts as well as possible. He does not. I feel like in the following post, he broke that pattern of confusion and "not-really-answering-stuff": On May 26 2015 09:47 sicklucker wrote: anyway were not voting between me (11 page filter lol) and bunnies.Presurin bunnies is fine she will get out of it if shes town. The main scum against her is her vote which barakos apparently tell us ment nothing! he seems to know alot about whats going on in the mafia qt but we have to presure these 2 1 page filter new players too or this game will never go anywhere. Were not voting me today you baddies He clearly says "she'll get out of it if she's town" - why doesn't he increase the pressure being put on bunnies? Why doesn't he jump the train on bunnies (since that, to me, is the obvious, easy and bulletproof solution to not get his own train going faster). Last, but not least, there's this post from disinformation: On May 25 2015 08:20 disformation wrote: Yes that part is pretty clear to me. Was wondering about: Nobody knew that scott would't try to get a last minute vote off. Possible that I was trying to hard to find a connection between my two top scum reads. Rels and Breshke have made pretty compelling cases on you. Your answers so far weren't really satisfying. Do you want to try again? + Show Spoiler + On May 24 2015 17:53 Rels wrote: Hello, this is a message for the potentiel vig in this game. I want you to consider a sicklucker shot tonight. Please read this post and think about it. First please read Breshke post here or in spoiler: + Show Spoiler + On May 24 2015 14:07 Breshke wrote: Has a shitty push on disinfo doesn't explain anything or put any effort into getting him lynched just faking suspicion to seem town. Backs of his shitty read again with no reasoning when wagon seems to be going against his partner. Starts bussing to get towncred. Tries to push rels AGAIN with no reasoning. Does not put any effort into getting rels lynched instead of scott even though scott is just a policy lynch for him and rels he genuinely thinks is scum. SL is not trying to work out the game he mainly just posts to post. Probably started bussing his partner then tried to see if he could start a different wagon. When noone started biting he just drops it. We are lynching SL tomorrow. If that doesn't convince you I will take what I said about him here and add to it. First reason In a few of his posts he either says he's town or gives argument to why someone should read him town. Apparently SL is a good player, so that could be straight up subtile manipulation. It is the tactics from commercials; one can only see something so many times before one starts thinking it's true, not knowing where the thought came by. I'm talking about these posts: + Show Spoiler + On May 22 2015 07:22 sicklucker wrote: disinfo you gonna correctly read me town again? On May 22 2015 09:21 sicklucker wrote: well you should because thats how you read me town On May 22 2015 09:49 sicklucker wrote: town points for not realizing their was a scum qt up for 24 hours like any town should On May 22 2015 11:22 sicklucker wrote: oh I totally took that post out of context hes asking me a qeustion pretty poor writinng . Oh well easy to read me town off that On May 22 2015 11:37 sicklucker wrote: im so town it hurts On May 24 2015 07:14 sicklucker wrote: Confirmed not veg dont shoot me mafia. Out for the night in a few On May 24 2015 15:42 sicklucker wrote: infact I was the hammer of the mafia and batsnackss followed me. I the town hero come at me Second reason Straigth up this. I read student IX game, and SL was town and didn't give a shit about newbies. Third reason He says that BM is a lynch bait, but says this: That could be read as "lynch him if you want, when he flips green i'm going to be right". Seems to me like he almost want BM to be lynched without him on the train. Forth reason Until late in the last day he didn't vote scott and tried to push other people with no arguments. Really no arguments, just "I'm suspicious of XXX". Even after he voted scott, he still tried to push subtily other people without voting for them. I will list the posts where he does that. I will not post what he said on batsnacks because he actually made a case on him for once. + Show Spoiler + On May 23 2015 11:50 sicklucker wrote: i think disinfo could be scum On May 23 2015 13:14 sicklucker wrote: one of bunnies or disinfo are scum probably disinfo On May 23 2015 13:16 sicklucker wrote: bats disinfo or bunnies + one of bm or the new guys I havent bother to read at all outside of sulp Can we just vote bats your townread on him makes no sense breske On May 24 2015 05:46 sicklucker wrote: Ok i just read rels filter. I think he flips scum a bit more then scott I wouldnt mind lynching him. Hard to explian call it a feelin Fifth reason Lying. On May 24 2015 15:36 sicklucker wrote: rels was my lynch bro No I wasn't. Batsnacks then scott was your lynch. Aaaaaand that's it. sicklucker don't add anything useful, except one post: the one on batsnacks which amazingly I liked. Plus, apparently he plays like that every game, so no one can read him for sure. He really put chaos in the thread with how he posted: for example his defense post just above mine is only a gif. What do you do with people hard to read, scummy, and that does things that cause chaos ? That's right. You vigi'd them. Even if he turns out to be town, that will be less confusion on the thread. So vig, if you even exist in this setup and have not made your mind about shooting, shoot SL. On May 24 2015 17:58 Rels wrote: Two others point on SL: Sixth reason Then TT post some questions, and SL doesn't answer. Seventh reason Getting super tired. Not sure how long I'll be available. This post is like the most certain thing we have IMHO, since we know (  ) by now that Rels is town. His case towards SL was no bullshit to cover something. Considering that Rels's post was originally inspired by Breshke's post, I will put Breshke on a clear town lean for me now. Shady people: - sicklucker (strong scum read by now) - bunnies (scum read thus far, want to hear her answers to raised questions) - that guy whose name I already forgot because he types so seldomly (sulfuras) - disinformation (weak sk read by now, close to a null read) Null reads: - bill murray rest appears to be townies. I'd say we lynch SL, check on bunnies and vigishoot dis. However, I'd like to put more pressure on dis because I'm really not too sure of his alignment by now. The guy's way too polite . If I forget to answer any raised questions, remind me. I'm at work and.. well it's awkward  . | ||
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boxerfred
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Are you implying that Dis and 27nb both are maf, or only 27nb? I like the reads on bunnies a lot currently. I don't feel like she can explain that. Regarding SL: you're ruining my disinformation is SK assumption. I filtered you and realized that you are really tunneling hard on SL (I dunno how I missed that fact before). That might point to you tryharding him, you already said that "even if town flip I don't care anymore". I want to ask you some questions. What brings you to the clear "SL = SK" result? You're asking a bunch of rethorical questions to support your claim: Wonder why SL is so defensive, yet so persistent that he is town? Why does he drone on about his HUGE filter of one liners and spam? Why does he tell us he is so experienced ans plays 100's of games? The answer you imply would be "BECAUSE HE'S SK". There can be a lot of other answers for those questions, so they're not really proving your point. Some examples: defensive because of heavy pressure. Persistent that he's town, well because everyone is. One liners/spammy: mindset of the human behind the keyboard. Or, too lazy to type out his thoughts. Or, too arrogant because "he's experienced" and we're in a newb game. And so on. I don't want to actually defend him - my vote has been placed upon him (not for reading him as SK though). You're saying "SL = SK" and I'm saying "Dis = SK". I stated already that my theories on Dis are rather wonky and I am willing to give him a null read. So: what do you think about Disinformation? | ||
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boxerfred
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boxerfred
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boxerfred
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On May 26 2015 20:59 batsnacks wrote: Boxerfred there if there was a SK in this game 2 people would have died last night. There are usually very few roles in mafia games... Having an SK in the game is uncommon and an SK that doesn't kill the first night is so unlikely it's not really worth speculating. Someone brought up that SK doesn't need to fire his shot so I assume there's one in? What if SK and scum have the same target? | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On May 26 2015 21:07 plotspot wrote: Ok let's suppose there is an SK, what reason would there be not to kill some people at night? Why wait? And now let's suppose SL is the SK, how is his shifty behavior good for him as SK, as supposed to just play the safest town game and shoot everybody one after each other? Tictock is your reasoning that if he establishes himself too hard as town, mafia will just kill him? Wouldn't it better then just to scumhunt hard elimating this sort of threat, instead of playing "what am I?" My gut feeling is there is no SK.. I have yet to understand the benefit of stalling kills earlier on when it's the best time for you not to be found out. I should've read this post here first. So adding to my above post: what if scum and sk shot the same guy? | ||
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